Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 2012
A joint project of Commonwealth Corporation and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston NEW ENGLAND PUBLIC POLICY CENTER OF COMMONWEALTH CORPORATION THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON
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This profile was developed by Robert Clifford, a policy analyst at the New England Public Policy Center. TABLE OF CONTENTS
OVERVIEW SECTION ll: Measuring Labor Demand—Employment Trends of Jobs and Workers in Metro South/West 3 Executive Summary 21 Employment Trends 5 Geography of the Regional Labor Markets 22 Demographic Characteristics of the Population Employed 6 Metro South/West in Metro South/West
7 Employment Trends and Recessions 23 Distribution of Employment by Supersector (Q4 2010)
SECTION l: Measuring Labor Supply—Demographic 24 Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn Trends of Residents Who Live in Metro South/West by Major Industry: Metro South/West
8 Population Growth Trends 25 Changes in Employment During the Economic Downturn by Major Industry: Massachusetts 9 Demographic Characteristics of the Resident Population of Metro South/West 26 Industries Driving the Recovery: Metro South/West
10 Growth in the Working-Age Population by Nativity Status 27 Industries Driving the Recovery: Massachusetts
11 Growth in the Civilian Labor Force by Nativity Status 28 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Industry in Metro South/West (2008-2010) 12 The Age Profile of the Working-Age Population 29 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Industry 13 The Age Profile of the Civilian Labor Force in Massachusetts (2008-2010)
14 Educational Attainment of the Working-Age Population 30 Employment by Major Occupation: Metro South/West (2008-2010)
15 Educational Attainment of the Civilian Labor Force 31 Employment by Major Occupation: Massachusetts (2008-2010)
16 Educational Attainment by Age Group 32 Distribution of Occupations Across Supersectors in Greater Boston (2008-2010) 17 Unemployment Rate Trends 34 Distribution of Occupations Within Supersectors in Greater 18 The Unemployed: Age Distribution (2000 and 2008-2010) Boston (2008-2010) 19 The Unemployed: Educational Attainment 36 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation (2000 and 2008-2010) in Metro South/West (2000) 20 Commuting Patterns of Residents and Workers: Metro South/West (2008-2010) TABLE OF CONTENTS
37 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation 49 Crossing the Finish Line: Trends in Degree Completions in Metro South/West (2008-2010) Over the Past Decade (2000-2010)
38 Educational Attainment of Employees by Major Occupation 50 Educational Institutions Awarding the Most Degrees in Massachusetts (2008-2010) in Metro South/West (2010)
39 Job Vacancies in the Great Recession and Recovery 51 Number of Degree Completions by Degree Type: Metro South/West (2000-2010) 40 Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation in Greater Boston (Q4 2010) 52 Certificates Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000-2010) 41 Job Vacancies and Vacancy Rates by Major Occupation in Massachusetts (Q4 2010) 53 Annual Completions by Top Five Certificate Majors in Metro South/West (2000-2010) 42 Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: Peak Labor Market 54 Associate’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study (2000-2010) 43 Comparing Vacancy Rates and Educational Attainment: Recovering Labor Market 55 Annual Completions by Top Five Associate’s Degree Majors in Metro South/West (2000-2010) SECTION lll: Measuring the Pipeline—Educational Supply from Post-Secondary Degrees Granted by Institutions 56 Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Major Field of Study Located in Metro South/West (2000-2010)
44 Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Full-Time 57 Annual Completions by Top Five Bachelor’s Degree Majors Enrollment Trends in the Past Decade in Metro South/West (2000-2010)
45 Number of Full-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting Institution in Metro South/West (2000-2010)
46 Growth in Potential Supply of Educated Workers: Part-Time Enrollment Trends in the Past Decade
47 Number of Part-Time Enrollees by Type of Degree Granting Institution in Metro South/West (2000-2010)
48 Graduation Rates by Type of Degree (2009) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Using the most recent data available, the Metro South/West has fared better than most remarkably high levels of education. Massachu- Metro South/West Regional Labor Market other Massachusetts labor markets, despite a setts is one of the states with the most highly Profile provides a detailed picture of the challenging decade. After two recessions and educated populations; the education levels of region’s current and future labor supply.1 For a decade of declining employment, the region the residents in Metro South/West are even context, it also provides detailed information is now gaining jobs and recovering at a mod- higher. Over the past decade, the share of on labor demand in the region over the past est pace. The recent recovery from the Great people living in Metro South/West who have a decade. This profile is designed to help guide Recession has been somewhat stronger in the Bachelor’s Degree or higher continued to increase. workforce development professionals, policy region than in the state as a whole. A strong base By 2008-2010, more than half of the work- makers, and civic, education, and business in industries that are driving the state’s recov- ing-age residents in Metro South/West (53.9 leaders as they make decisions about education ery, such as Professional & Business Services, percent) had a Bachelor’s Degree or higher, and training opportunities. is helping to move the region ahead. Further, compared with 35.6 percent of Massachusetts the concentration of highly educated employ- residents. The charts and analysis are divided into ees within these industries is also benefiting the three sections: region. In fact, Metro South/West workers tend Looking forward, the region faces the demo- to have higher educational attainment than graphic challenges of an aging population 1. Labor Supply: Demographic Trends of their statewide counterparts across nearly all and potential shortfalls in workers with the Residents Who Live in Metro South/West occupations. There is still additional demand required educational levels. Metro South/West 2. Labor Demand: Employment Trends of Jobs for highly educated workers, illustrated by the is the one of the oldest regions in the state, and Workers in Metro South/West fact that the job vacancies in the region tend trailing only Berkshire and Cape & Islands. In to be concentrated among occupations where 2008-2010, nearly 50 percent of the region’s 3. The Pipeline: Educational Supply of Post- workers have higher levels of education. civilian labor force was 45 years of age or older. Secondary Degrees Granted by Institutions This suggests that the region’s businesses are Located in Metro South/West Both the region’s residents and its work- facing a potential overall shortage of younger force (which includes people who commute workers to replace baby boomers as they retire. from other regions and other states) have Although nearly 18 percent of those unem-
1 This profile builds on the work of the 2008 regional labor market profiles completed by Paul Harrington, Neeta Fogg, and their colleagues at the Drexel University Center on Labor Markets and Policy (formerly Northeastern University). This work employs their methodology and includes expanded analysis of the educational attainment of the region’s population, more detailed analysis of the distribution of occupations by industry, and reviews trends over a longer time period.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 3 ployed in the region were aged 16-24, which The higher education institutions in the is substantially lower than the share statewide, region can play a key role in influencing the Please visit www.boston people in this age group are disproportion- supply of future workers with a post-secondary fed.org/neppc for appen- ally overrepresented among the unemployed degree. This supply will be critical to help dices describing geography relative to their share of the civilian labor meet the demographic challenges posed by the and methodology, and for force. And while the region has a high level of aging workforce and the increasing demand for additional data. residents with a Bachelor’s Degree, during the highly educated workers. The national and last decade the number of people with Some state enrollment trends indicate that more College education or an Associate’s Degree individuals have been seeking post-secondary declined, suggesting potential future short- education over the last decade. However, falls in the number of workers well-suited for enrollment at the educational institutions in middle-skill jobs. Because the region is a major Metro South/West is trailing that of institutions destination for commuters and a net importer in Massachusetts and the United States, with of workers, some of these workforce challenges the exception of full-time and part-time can be addressed by attracting people who enrollment in two-year institutions. In terms of commute into the region from other places. students completing a degree, the institutions Relying on such mobility can have limitations, in the region have, as a whole, trailed in the however, particularly in attracting people to growth of most post-secondary degrees relative work in jobs with low education requirements to Massachusetts. Because of this trend, the and low pay that are traditionally filled by less region has trailed Massachusetts and the United mobile populations. States in the growth of post-secondary educated graduates in nearly every major field of study. To continue to foster strong economic growth in the future, Metro South/West should strive to align the education of its labor force to meet the demands of the region’s employers.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 4 www.bostonfed.org/neppc GEOGRAPHY OF THE REGIONAL LABOR MARKETS
Metro South/West’s labor market borders four regional labor markets: Boston/Metro North, Central Mass, Northeast, and Southeast. It is composed of 43 Massachusetts cities and towns in Norfolk and Middlesex counties. Some of the larger cities and towns are Newton, Framingham, Waltham, Brookline, Marlborough, Natick, and Franklin. In certain aspects of the analysis, such as the vacancy analysis and industry/occupational distributions, because of data limitations, Metro South/West Eight Regional Labor Market Areas is combined with Boston/Metro North and is referred to as the 1 Berkshire Region Pioneer Valley Region Greater Boston region. See Geographic Appendix for further details. 2 3 Central Mass Region 4 Northeast Region Boston/Metro North Region 4 5 6 Metro South/West Region 7 Southeast Region 5 8 Cape & Islands Region 1 2 3
6
7
8
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 5 METRO SOUTH/WEST
LITTLETO N CARLISLE
BEDFORD BOXBOROUG H ACTON CONCORD
LEXINGTO N MAYNARD STOW LINCOLN
WALTHAM HUDSON SUDBURY
WESTON MARLBOROUG H WAYLAN D E NEWTON IN KL FRAMINGHAM OO BR SOUTHBOROUGH WELLESLEY
NATICK NEEDHA M
ASHLAND DEDHA M SHERBORN DOVER HOPKINTON WESTWOOD
HOLLISTO N MEDFIELD NORWOOD CANTON MILLI S MEDWAY WALPOL E
NORFOL K SHARON M
FRANKLIN
FOXBOROUG H BELLINGHA WRENTHAM
PLAINVILLE
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 6 www.bostonfed.org/neppc EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Non−Agricultural Employment for United States and Massachusetts, AND RECESSIONS Q1 2000 to Q4 2011
1.06 NBER Recession Massachusetts 1.04 United States After reaching peak employment in 2001, employment in 1.02 Massachusetts remained 5.0 percent (169,800 jobs) below peak at 1 the end of 2011. In contrast, over the same time period, employ- 1.00 ment in the United States remained only 0.4 percent (513,700 jobs) below peak. In Massachusetts, the short national recession at the 0.98 Index 2000 = beginning of the decade created a prolonged contraction and slow recovery. By the start of the Great Recession, Massachu- 0.96 setts had still not recovered all of the jobs it had lost during the 0.94 previous recession. In contrast, the nation experienced a shorter labor market contraction in 2001 followed by a strong recovery 0.92 that expanded employment up until the Great Recession. The Great Recession impacted the nation severely, while Q1−2000 Q1−2001 Q1−2002 Q1−2003 Q1−2004 Q1−2005 Q1−2006 Q1−2007 Q1−2008 Q1−2009 Q1−2010 Q1−2011
Massachusetts experienced a less pronounced downturn, with a slightly stronger recovery through 2010 followed by slower employment growth in 2011.
These differences between Massachusetts and the United States over the economic cycles are important to keep in mind when evaluating the performance of the eight regional labor markets. When possible, these labor market profiles will look at labor mar- ket information for the beginning of the millennium, the period preceding the Great Recession, and the decline in and recovery from the Great Recession.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Note: Shaded bars are National Bureau of Economic Research dated national recessions.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 7 Annual Growth Rates
2.0 Annual Growth Rate 2000 to 2005−2007 Annual Growth Rate 2005−2007 to 2007−2010 POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.9
0.5 0.4 0.20.3
0.0 The third largest region by total population, Metro South/West −0.1 Annual Growth Rate accounted for 16.6 percent of the state’s population at the end of −0.5 the decade. After experiencing the second fastest annual growth rate in population (0.4 percent) early in the decade, Metro South/ −1.0 West was one of only three regions to experience a decline in total −1.5 population in recent years. The decline in population from 2005- s s s y t
2007 to 2008-2010 was the result of a number of factors, but it Berkshire Northeast Southeas United State Central Mas is largely attributable to the decline in the number of individuals Massachusetts Cape & Island Pioneer Valle Metro South/West less than 25 years old, continued losses of those age 35-44, and Boston/Metro North declines in the non-immigrant population.
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Samples Massachusetts Population Distribution Across Regional Labor Markets, (PUMS) data files, 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey Public Berkshire Use Micro Sample (PUMS) data files. 2008−2010 Cape & Islands 3.8% 1.8% Southeast Note: The use of the three-year American Community Survey was necessary to Central Mass 21% capture accurate estimates for the small geographic areas. The three-year sample is repre- 10.6% sentative of the demographic and employment characteristics of the region over a 36-month period.
Pioneer Valley 10.8%
Boston/Metro North Northeast 19.2% 16.2%
Metro South/West Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 16.6% 8 www.bostonfed.org/neppc DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Annual Absolute Growth Rate OF THE RESIDENT POPULATION OF 2000 2008-2010 Change (Percent) METRO SOUTH/WEST Resident Population 1,019,337 1,038,784 19,447 0.2 Gender Male 486,222 504,845 18,623 0.4 Over the past decade, the number of people living in Metro Female 533,115 533,939 824 0.0 South/West increased at an annual growth rate of 0.2 percent. Nativity The growth in the Metro South/West immigrant population was Native Born 877,860 859,444 -18,416 -0.2 strong enough to offset losses in the native-born population. The Immigrant 141,477 179,340 37,863 2.7 region also became more diverse over the past decade, with strong Race/Ethnicity growth among minority groups, most notably Hispanic residents. White, non-Hispanic 909,509 868,184 -41,325 -0.5 The region’s population also became considerably older as baby Black, non-Hispanic 16,142 22,322 6,180 3.7 Asian, non-Hispanic 47,857 75,701 27,844 5.2 boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) neared retirement age. In Hispanic 27,933 48,259 20,326 6.3 particular, the 55-64-year-old age cohort grew at a robust annual Other race, non-Hispanic 17,896 24,318 6,422 3.5 rate of 4.2 percent over the course of the decade. The second fast- Age est growing age cohort in Metro South/West was 16-24-year-olds, Less than age 16 228,864 223,690 -5,174 -0.3 who are the children of baby boomers and are commonly referred Age 16-24 79,507 93,097 13,590 1.8 to as the echo-boom generation. Age 25-34 144,532 114,194 -30,338 -2.6 Age 35-44 188,687 159,119 -29,568 -1.9 Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) data files, 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey Public Age 45-54 156,691 177,004 20,313 1.4 Use Micro Sample (PUMS) data files. Age 55-64 92,041 133,213 41,172 4.2
Note: Further data for racial/ethnic and gender characteristics for the residential Age 65+ 129,015 138,467 9,452 0.8 population, as well as the working-age, civilian labor force, unemployed, and employed populations are available in the Data Appendix.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 9 Annual Growth Rate, 2000 to 2005−2007
5.0 Total Native Born Immigrant 4.0 GROWTH IN THE WORKING-AGE 3.6 POPULATION BY NATIVITY STATUS 3.2 3.0 2.8
2.0 The immigrants in Metro South/West have been a major driver of growth in the working-age population (a region’s potential 1.2 Annual Growth Rate labor supply, typically defined as people 16 years of age or older). 1.0 0.9 Between 2000 and 2005-2007, the growth of working-age 0.5 0.5 immigrants (3.6 percent) exceeded the growth of working-age 0.0 0.0 immigrants in both Massachusetts and the United States. In −0.2 recent years, the growth of working-age immigrants has slowed in Metro South/West, Massachusetts, and the United States. −1.0 Metro South/West Massachusetts United States
Source: US Census 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files, 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Annual Growth Rate, 2005−2007 to 2008−2010
5.0 Note: Working-age population is individuals 16 years of age or older and excludes Total institutionalized populations. Immigrants are individuals born outside the U.S. Native Born Immigrant 4.0
3.0
2.3 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 Annual Growth Rate 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
−0.3
−1.0 Metro South/West Massachusetts United States
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 10 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Annual Growth Rate, 2000 to 2005−2007
5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 Total Native Born GROWTH IN THE CIVILIAN LABOR 4.0 Immigrant FORCE BY NATIVITY STATUS 3.0
2.0 The civilian labor force is the people who are either working or 1.5 unemployed but actively looking for work (a region’s actual
Annual Growth Rate 0.9 labor supply). In Metro South/West, a high percentage of the 1.0 0.8 working-age population (over 70 percent) is part of the labor force. 0.3 In Metro South/West, immigrants are driving the growth of the 0.1 0.0 civilian labor force. Despite declines in the native-born population participating in the labor force between 2000 and 2005-2007, the −0.6 overall labor force in the region continued to grow. This growth −1.0 Metro South/West Massachusetts United States was a result of a 4.6 percent annual growth rate of the immigrant labor force. Between 2005-2007 and 2008-2010, the number of Annual Growth Rate, 2005−2007 to 2008−2010 native-born people participating in the region’s civilian labor force 5.0 increased slightly. The number of immigrants continued to grow, Total but at a lower rate than in the first part of the decade and also at a Native Born Immigrant lower rate than in the state or the nation. 4.0
Source: US Census 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files, 2005-2007 and 3.2 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. 3.0 3.0
Note: The civilian labor force is all individuals 16 years of age or older who are classified as employed or unemployed and actively looking for work. Immigrants are individuals 2.2 born outside the country. 2.0
1.4 1.2
Annual Growth Rate 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5
0.0
−1.0 Metro South/West Massachusetts United States
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 11 THE AGE PROFILE OF THE WORKING- Age Distribution of the Working-Age Population, AGE POPULATION 2000 and 2008−2010
100
16.3 17.0 16.7 16.8 15.7 16.3
80 Massachusetts is one of the oldest states in the country, and Metro 11.6 11.3 11.4 16.3 15.3 15.0 South/West is one of the oldest regions in the state. The only two 17.7 regions that are older are Berkshire and Cape & Islands. More 19.8 18.1 Age 65+ 60 19.7 18.9 Age 55−64 than half (55 percent) of the region’s working-age population is 21.7 Age 45−54 45 years or older. In fact, one-third of the region’s working-age Age 35−44 Percent 22.0 21.5 Age 25−34 population is 55 years or older. 23.9 17.5 40 17.8 Age 16−24 19.5 Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. 18.4 18.9 16.3 16.9 20 18.3 14.0
14.0 15.3 15.4 10.1 11.4 13.0 0 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010
Metro South/West Massachusetts United States
Growth of Working-Age Population by Age in Annual Metro South/West Absolute Growth Rate 2000 2008-2010 Change (Percent) Age 16-24 79,507 93,097 13,590 1.8 Age 25-34 144,532 114,194 -30,338 -2.6 Age 35-44 188,687 159,119 -29,568 -1.9 Age 45-54 156,691 177,004 20,313 1.4 Age 55-64 92,041 133,213 41,172 4.2 Age 65+ 129,015 138,467 9,452 0.8
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 12 www.bostonfed.org/neppc THE AGE PROFILE OF THE CIVILIAN Age Distribution of the Civilian Labor Force, 2000 and 2008−2010 LABOR FORCE
100 4.5 5.7 3.6 4.7 3.3 4.0 10.2 11.7 10.8 15.8 14.7 17.7 Given the age of the region’s population, it is not surprising that 80 22.4 21.8 the civilian labor force in Metro South/West is older than the 24.3 23.3 23.9 state’s or nation’s labor force. Nearly 50 percent of the workers in 26.4 Age 65+ 60 Metro South/West are 45 years or older. In the past decade, there Age 55−64 Age 45−54 has been strong growth in the share of workers who are 45-54 27.0 26.8 22.3 Age 35−44 Percent 28.6 years old and 55-64 years old. In addition, there have been an in- 22.0 Age 25−34 40 23.6 Age 16−24 creasing number of workers who are 65 years and older and in the labor force. At the same time, there has been a declining number 22.7 23.3 20.2 21.5 20 22.0 of workers between the ages of 25 and 34 and between 35 and 44. 17.1 All of these trends add up to the fact that the Metro South/West 12.9 13.2 15.2 14.2 civilian labor force is much older than those of Massachusetts and 9.0 9.5 0 the United States. 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 Metro South/West Massachusetts United States
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files.
Growth of Civilian Labor Force Population by Age in Metro South/West Annual Absolute Growth Rate 2000 2008-2010 Change (Percent) Age 16-24 50,544 55,314 4,770 1.0 Age 25-34 123,400 100,309 -23,091 -2.3 Age 35-44 160,189 137,815 -22,374 -1.7 Age 45-54 135,991 154,486 18,495 1.4 Age 55-64 65,339 103,824 38,485 5.3 Age 65+ 25,299 33,445 8,146 3.2
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 13 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF THE Educational Distribution of the Working-Age Population, WORKING-AGE POPULATION 2000 and 2008−2010
100 7.7 9.0 12.1 14.5 22.7 26.0 14.3 16.3 Of the eight regional labor markets in Massachusetts, Metro 80 18.7 21.1 5.9 South/West has the largest share of working-age people with a 7.1 6.9 college degree or higher. By 2008-2010, over 50 percent of the 26.5 Master’s Degree or more 60 27.9 7.1 21.6 working-age population had a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. The 22.5 Bachelor’s Degree 17.9 Associate’s Degree region’s educational attainment far exceeds that of Massachusetts, 6.3 18.0 Some College, no degree Percent 5.6 High School which has one of the highest rates in the country of residents with 40 15.5 27.8 Less than High School a college degree. Over the last decade, the share of working-age 13.7 26.4 27.6 population with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher increased, but there 25.4 20 18.7 were declines among all other educational categories, including 18.0 22.8 individuals with Some College and with an Associate’s Degree. In 18.0 13.9 17.6 comparison, in Massachusetts and the United States, the number 10.4 8.8 0 and share of working individuals with Some College and with an 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 Metro South/West Massachusetts United States Associate’s Degree increased.
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Growth of Working-Age Population by Educational Attainment in Metro South/West Annual Absolute Growth Rate 2000 2008-2010 Change (Percent) Less than High School 82,429 71,335 -11,094 -1.6 High School Graduate 147,550 146,710 -840 -0.1 Some College, no degree 122,722 111,976 -10,746 -1.0 Associate's Degree 49,502 45,644 -3,858 -0.9 Bachelor's Degree 209,142 227,579 18,437 0.9 Master's Degree or more 179,128 211,850 32,722 1.9
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 14 www.bostonfed.org/neppc EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF THE Educational Distribution of the Civilian Labor Force, CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 2000 and 2008−2010
100 9.4 10.5 14.8 16.8 26.7 29.6 17.2 It is not surprising that a highly educated working-age popula- 80 19.1 22.3 tion translates into a more highly educated civilian labor force. 24.4 7.2 8.3 Nearly 30 percent of Metro South/West’s workers had a Master’s Master’s Degree or more 60 29.6 7.9 Bachelor’s Degree Degree or higher, which is almost double the share of workers in 30.3 7.9 23.9 Associate’s Degree 24.0 Massachusetts with at least a Master’s Degree. At the end of Some College, no degree
Percent 19.1 High School the decade, nearly 80 percent of the civilian labor force in Met- 40 6.8 18.7 5.9 Less than High School ro South/West had completed at least some post-secondary education (Some College or higher). This is substantially 15.3 13.3 26.9 24.3 26.3 higher than the nearly 70 percent in Massachusetts and 60 percent 20 23.5 nationwide who had some post-secondary education. 15.4 15.8 15.5 11.5 11.8 6.3 5.0 8.7 US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 0 Source: 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Metro South/West Massachusetts United States
Growth of Working-Age Population by Educational Attainment in Growth of Civilian Labor Force Population by Educational Attainment in Metro South/West Annual Metro South/West Absolute Growth Rate 2000 2008-2010 Change (Percent) Less than High School 35,069 29,248 -5,821 -2.0 High School Graduate 86,281 92,579 6,298 0.8 Some College, no degree 85,721 77,998 -7,723 -1.0 Associate's Degree 37,964 34,580 -3,384 -1.0 Bachelor's Degree 165,943 177,422 11,479 0.7 Master's Degree or more 149,784 173,366 23,582 1.6
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 15 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Metro South/West, (2008–2010)
BY AGE GROUP Master’s Degree or more
Bachelor’s Degree If we look at the region’s population by both age and education, we get an understanding of the workers who will be replacing the Associate’s Degree baby boomers. As the baby boomers have aged, the 45-54-year- olds have become the largest age cohort. As the boomers continue Some College, no degree to age and, over time, leave the labor force, nearly every educa- tional category faces a potential shortfall of workers. The largest potential shortfall, when looking at the share of individuals age High School Graduate Age 55−64 25-34 in the region that may fill the positions of those age 45-54 Age 45−54 in the coming decades, is in the number of individuals with an Less than High School Age 35−44 Age 25−34 Associate’s Degree. Nearly 12,600 people in Metro South/West 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 between the ages of 45 and 54 have an Associate’s Degree. In sharp contrast, fewer than 5,000 people between the ages of 25 and Number of Working-Age Individuals Living in Region 34 have an Associate’s Degree. This difference of 7,600 working- age individuals represents a potential shortage of over 60 percent of the working-age individuals that may be needed as 45-54-year- olds reach traditional retirement ages in the next two decades. However, this potential shortfall is likely smaller as educational requirements for most industries and occupations have increased over time.
Source: US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 16 www.bostonfed.org/neppc UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TRENDS Unemployment Rate, 2000 to 2010
10.0 Metro South/West 9.0 Massachusetts United States 8.0 During the Great Recession, unemployment rates nationwide 7.0 have increased sharply. Beginning the decade at 2.1 percent, the unemployment rate of Metro South/West climbed to nearly 5.0 6.0 percent in 2003 before declining to slightly over 3.0 percent in 5.0
2007. In the Great Recession the region’s unemployment rate Percent jumped to 6.5 percent. While the unemployment rate remains 4.0 elevated, it has consistently remained below both the state’s and 3.0 the nation’s rates. The unemployment rate in Metro South/ 2.0 West is currently the lowest among all regional labor markets in Massachusetts. 1.0
0.0 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Workforce Development.
Note: The annual unemployment rate is a 12-month average of the non-seasonally- adjusted unemployment rates.
Metro South/West Unemployment Annual Relative Growth Rate 2000 2010 Change (Percent) Unemployed 10,090 31,988 21,898 12.2 Employed 476,477 461,675 -14,802 -0.3 Civilian Labor Force 486,567 493,662 7,095 0.1 Unemployment Rate 2.1 6.5 - -
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 17 THE UNEMPLOYED: AGE DISTRIBUTION 100 2.9 5.2 2.4 4.1 2.2 2.8 6.4 (2000 AND 2008-2010) 8.7 10.7 12.5 12.4 17.9 14.3 80 17.4 18.0 24.0 20.1 A larger share of the unemployed in Metro South/West is over the 20.6 age of 45, compared with Massachusetts and the nation. This is 27.6 60 20.6 18.0 Age 65+ Age 55−64 a consequence of the region’s older population. At the beginning 18.1 Age 45−54 of the decade, when the unemployment rate was at 2.1 percent, 22.4 Age 35−44
Percent 21.8 the unemployed population was largely concentrated among Age 25−34 40 18.2 21.3 21.7 Age 16−24 25-54-year-olds. As the region’s population increased in age 19.0 over the decade and the Great Recession took hold, the share of 22.5 the unemployed age 45 or older grew to over 50 percent. In 13.6 20 comparison, only 35 percent of the unemployed in Massachu- 34.6 29.5 26.4 28.9 setts were age 45 or older in 2008-2010. Nationwide, the younger 15.6 17.5 cohorts made up the largest share of unemployed, with 50 percent 0 of the unemployed population age 34 or younger by the end of the 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 decade. Nevertheless, even in Metro South/West individuals ages Metro South/West Massachusetts United States 16 to 24 were a disproportionately high share of the unemployed (17.5 percent), relative to their share of the civilian labor force (9.5 percent).
Source: US Census 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files.
Note: Unemployed are individuals age 16 or older not employed and actively looking for work.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 18 www.bostonfed.org/neppc THE UNEMPLOYED: EDUCATIONAL 100 2.9 3.8 6.9 7.1 ATTAINMENT (2000 AND 2008-2010) 7.3 17.2 18.8 10.4 11.7 4.1 15.7 5.7 80 5.9 5.8 19.6 21.8 The unemployment situation in Metro South/West differs 27.9 17.6 24.1 from that in the state and the nation: almost 50 percent of the 60 20.9 Master’s Degree or more 5.9 unemployed in Metro South/West have a Bachelor’s Degree or Bachelor’s Degree Associate’s Degree 5.5 30.2 higher. This is a consequence of the high levels of educational Some College, no degree
Percent 17.2 attainment among the region’s residents. In 2000, the share of the 28.7 High School 40 16.7 32.6 Less than High School unemployed in Metro South/West with a High School Degree 31.5 or less was slightly under 40 percent, similar to the share of the unemployed with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. By the end of 23.4 20 21.6 the decade, the share of the unemployed with a Bachelor’s Degree 35.8 29.3 23.4 or higher grew to nearly 50 percent in Metro South/West, with 19.0 14.6 the largest share of the unemployed being those with a Bachelor’s 9.5 0 Degree (27.9 percent). In comparison, a majority of the 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 2000 2008−2010 unemployed in both Massachusetts and the United States had a Metro South/West Massachusetts United States High School Degree or less. Nevertheless, even in Metro/South West those with a High School Degree or less accounted for a disproportionately high share of the unemployed (31.1 percent) in 2008-2010, relative to their share of the civilian labor force (20.8 percent).
Source: US Census 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 19 COMMUTING PATTERNS OF Number Percent of Total
RESIDENTS AND WORKERS IN Total number of employed persons living in Metro South/West… 538,965 100.0 METRO SOUTH/WEST (2008-2010) …who work in: Metro South/West 312,625 58.0 Metro South/West is closely tied to its neighboring labor Boston/Metro North 143,259 26.6 markets and relies on workers from outside of the region. While Southeast 26,439 4.9 58 percent of the employed residents of the region also work Central Mass 23,306 4.3 in the region, nearly 27 percent of Metro South/West residents Northeast 18,260 3.4 Other parts of Massachusetts 1,706 0.3 commute to the Boston/Metro North region for work, and another Rhode Island 6,361 1.2 13 percent commute to other bordering regions (i.e. Southeast, New Hampshire 2,559 0.5 Central Mass, and Northeast). Metro South/West also has a large Other places outside Massachusetts 4,450 0.8 number of employees commuting into the region, with 41 percent Total number of persons working in coming from bordering regions and additional commuters from Metro South/West… 599,083 100.0 New Hampshire (2.4 percent) and Rhode Island (2.5 percent). …who live in: Overall, Metro South/West is a net importer of workers, with Metro South/West 312,625 52.2 60,000 more employees commuting into the region for work than Boston/Metro North 85,621 14.3 residents commuting out. Southeast 57,855 9.7 Central Mass 56,392 9.4 Source: US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Northeast 45,878 7.7 Other parts of Massachusetts 4,964 0.8 Rhode Island 15,028 2.5 New Hampshire 14,430 2.4 Other places outside Massachusetts 6,290 1.0 Net In-Commuting (Number of Persons Employed in Region Minus Number of Persons Living in Region) 60,118 -
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 20 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Changes in Total Employment
6 Q1 2001−Q1 2008 4.1 Q4 2007−Q4 2009 4 Q4 2009−Q4 2010 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 2.5 2 1.5 0.8
0
−2 −2.0 −2.1 Metro South/West is the third most populous region, but it is the Percent Change −4 −3.3 second largest labor market in the state, accounting for nearly 16.8 −4.0 percent of the state’s employment, or roughly 531,000 jobs. The −6 employment trends in Metro South/West were similar to those −6.1 in Massachusetts over the past decade. The region’s employment −8 s t y t declined at a rate nearly identical to Massachusetts between 2001 and 2008. Both experienced a more modest employment loss than Berkshire Northeas Southeas United States Central Mas Massachusetts Cape & Islands Pioneer Valle the United States during the Great Recession, and Metro South/ Metro South/West Boston/Metro North West’s losses were slightly less than those in the state (3.3 percent versus 4.0 percent). During the recent recovery, Metro South/ Distribution of Employment Across Regional Labor Markets, Q4 2010 West has had the strongest growth among all the state’s regional Cape & Islands Berkshire labor markets, increasing 2.6 percent between the fourth quarters 3.1% 1.9% Pioneer Valley of 2009 and 2010. 9.1%
Boston/Metro North US Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Source: 29.6% Wages (QCEW) and Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202. Central Mass Note: ES-202 and QCEW are not seasonally adjusted. Therefore, comparisons need to 10.2% be made across consistent time periods, such as the first quarter of one year to the first quarter of another. Comparison between different quarters will distort comparisons as seasonal employment in industries such as Retail Trade or Leisure & Hospitality vary considerably across regions.
Northeast 13.1%
Metro South/West Southeast 16.8% 16.2%
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 21 DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Annual Absolute Growth Rate OF THE POPULATION EMPLOYED IN 2000 2008-2010 Change (Percent) METRO SOUTH/WEST Employed Population 572,485 599,083 26,598 0.5 Gender Male 306,876 317,206 10,330 0.4 The demographics of people employed in the region are similar Female 265,609 281,877 16,268 0.7 to the demographics of the population that lives in the region, Nativity despite the fact that nearly 50 percent of the region’s workers live Native Born 487,842 474,207 -13,635 -0.3 outside the region. Over the past decade, the region has employed Immigrant 84,643 124,876 40,233 4.4 more immigrants. The region’s workers have also become more Race/Ethnicity diverse, with growth in Black, Asian, and Hispanic employ- White, non-Hispanic 505,809 491,118 -14,691 -0.3 ees. And much like the residential population of Metro South/ Black, non-Hispanic 16,081 25,200 9,119 5.1 Asian, non-Hispanic 20,502 36,849 16,347 6.7 West, there is a strong concentration of older employees, and the Hispanic 18,581 35,736 17,155 7.5 fraction of jobs held by workers with at least a Bachelor’s Degree Other race, non-Hispanic 11,512 10,180 -1,332 -1.4 has increased in the past decade. Age
Source: US Census 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 American Age 16-24 61,798 64,079 2,281 0.4 Community Survey PUMS data files. Age 25-34 136,248 121,236 -15,012 -1.3 Age 35-44 161,628 140,673 -20,955 -1.5 Note: Further data for racial/ethnic and gender characteristics for total, working-age, and civilian labor force population are available in the Data Appendix. Age 45-54 129,612 150,305 20,693 1.7 Age 55-64 61,072 93,768 32,696 4.9 Age 65+ 22,127 29,022 6,895 3.1 Educational Attainment Less than High School 46,945 38,819 -8,126 -2.1 High School Graduate 114,183 116,092 1,909 0.2 Some College, no degree 102,662 97,890 -4,772 -0.5 Associate's Degree 45,220 44,105 -1,115 -0.3 Bachelor's Degree 158,685 177,279 18,594 1.2 Master's Degree or more 104,790 124,898 20,108 2.0
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 22 www.bostonfed.org/neppc DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT 100 4.6 2.8 2.2 3.8 4.5 BY SUPERSECTOR (Q4 2010) 3.8 3.1 4.2 3.5 2.9 4.3 5.8 5.1 80 6.5 5.9 9.3 Over one-fifth of the jobs in Metro South/West are in the 8.1 9.1 Education & Health Services industries. This supersector, however, 8.9 9.7 accounts for a smaller share of employment than in Massachu- 10.5 60 setts or the United States. In this region, there is a much stronger 14.9 employment concentration in Professional & Business Services 21.9 13.6
(21.9 percent) than in the state overall or the country. There are Percent somewhat fewer jobs in Trade, Transportation & Utilities (17.8 40 18.4 percent) in the region compared with Massachusetts and the 20.7 United States. Also of note is that the region’s Manufacturing 17.8 supersector is somewhat larger than the state’s. At 9.3 percent, the size of the region’s Manufacturing supersector is much closer to 20 that of the nation (9.1 percent). Employment in the Information 27.2 22.5 24.3 supersector in Metro South/West (4.6 percent) is nearly double that of the Information supersector in both the state and nation. 0 Metro South/West Massachusetts United States Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW and Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202. Information Manufacturing Construction Leisure & Hospitality Note: Supersectors are grouping of major industry categories. See the Data Appendix for the major industries that make up each supersector. Professional & Other Services Business Services Trade, Transportation, Government & Utilities Education & Health Financial Activities Services
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 23 CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT DURING THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN BY MAJOR INDUSTRY: METRO SOUTH/WEST
Between 2007 and 2009, Metro South/West lost jobs, but the Care & Social Assistance (5.2 percent) and Educational Services region did not fare as poorly as other parts of the state, largely (5.8 percent), totaling 6,000 jobs. However, these gains were because of Metro South/West’s industry mix. Metro South/ offset by a loss of 13,000 jobs in the two industries hit West benefited from growth in jobs in Professional & Technical hardest by the Great Recession: Manufacturing (-13.6 percent) Services (5.5 percent), a major industry within Professional & and Construction (-21.3 percent). Business Services. Of the 3,400 jobs Professional & Technical Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202. Services gained over this time period, the sub-industry of Computer System Design & Related Services accounted for over Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2010. See the Data Appendix for supersector and major industry employment trends. 1,800 jobs. The region further benefited from gains in Health
Q4 2009 Industry Employment Percent Change in Employment, Q4 2007 to Q4 2009
Health Care & Social Assistance 59,257 5.2 Retail Trade 55,175 −4.8 Educational Services 56,910 5.8 Manufacturing 49,438 −13.6 Professional & Technical Services 66,256 5.5 Accommodation & Food Services 34,432 −3.0 Financial Activities 27,018 −9.2 Administrative & Support Services 25,026 −12.1 Government 14,947 4.6 Other Services 15,842 −3.2 Wholesale Trade 27,594 −9.9 Construction 19,887 −21.3 Transportation & Warehousing 9,441 0.2 Information 22,904 −6.5 Management of Companies & Enterprises 21,081 −0.1 Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 10,294 4.6 Utilities 1,094 6.5 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 Total Employment Percent Change
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 24 www.bostonfed.org/neppc CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT DURING THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN BY MAJOR INDUSTRY: MASSACHUSETTS
Massachusetts faced a slightly tougher downturn than Metro South/ from two major industries within this supersector: Retail Trade West. The state’s strongest employment gains came in the Health (-4.7 percent) and Wholesale Trade (-9.3 percent). While Metro Care & Social Assistance industry (4.0 percent), as a result of strong South/West and Massachusetts saw similar employment losses across a growth in the sub-industry of Ambulatory Health Care Services number of industries in the Great Recession, the state experienced (7.7 percent). The state also saw modest employment gains in four weaker growth than Metro South/West in the few industries that other industries, ranging from 0.7 percent in Government to 3.0 expanded employment between 2007 and 2009 and, as a result, had percent in Utilities. Such gains were more than offset by significant steeper total employment losses than the region. losses in two industries hit hardest by the Great Recession: Manu- facturing (-13.5 percent) and Construction (-20.5 percent). Within Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202.
Trade, Transportation & Utilities, the state experienced large losses Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2010.
Q4 2009 Industry Employment Percent Change in Employment, Q4 2007 to Q4 2009
Health Care & Social Assistance 513,672 4.0 Retail Trade 343,529 −4.7 Educational Services 340,271 1.9 Manufacturing 253,893 −13.5 Professional & Technical Services 251,688 −1.5 Accommodation & Food Services 249,918 −1.3 Financial Activities 210,200 −6.3 Administrative & Support Services 153,897 −12.8 Government 134,821 0.7 Other Services 129,408 1.5 Wholesale Trade 126,056 −9.3 Construction 120,643 −20.5 Transportation & Warehousing 96,482 −7.3 Information 89,588 −4.2 Management of Companies & Enterprises 58,547 −4.3 Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 49,513 −0.8 Utilities 13,728 3.0 0 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 Total Employment Percent Change
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 25 INDUSTRIES DRIVING THE RECOVERY: METRO SOUTH/WEST
Since the trough of the downturn, Metro South/West has tor. Of the jobs added by Administrative & Support Services experienced modest growth across a broad set of industries. Only in the recovery, most came in sub-industries of Employment four industries lost jobs between the fourth quarters of 2009 and Services (1,400 jobs), which includes temporary service agencies, 2010, with the largest decline coming from the region’s largest and Services to Building & Dwellings (4,500 jobs). industry: Professional & Technical Services (3,400 jobs or -5.1 percent). This loss was offset by an increase of over 5,500 jobs Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202. in Administrative & Support Services (22.2 percent), also an Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2010. industry within the Professional & Business Services supersec-
Q4 2010 Industry Employment Percent Change in Employment, Q4 2009 to Q4 2010
Health Care & Social Assistance 61,717 4.2 Retail Trade 56,645 2.7 Educational Services 57,659 1.3 Accommodation & Food Services 36,559 6.2 Manufacturing 49,520 0.2 Professional & Technical Services 62,854 −5.1 Financial Activities 26,816 −0.7 Administrative & Support Services 30,592 22.2 Government 15,452 3.4 Other Services 16,546 4.4 Wholesale Trade 27,254 −1.2 Construction 20,114 1.1 Transportation & Warehousing 9,511 0.7 Information 24,222 5.8 Management of Companies & Enterprises 22,796 8.1 Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 10,631 3.3 Utilities 1,045 −4.5 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Total Employment Percent Change
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 26 www.bostonfed.org/neppc INDUSTRIES DRIVING THE RECOVERY: MASSACHUSETTS
Massachusetts has also had a broad-based recovery. The state has including: Social Assistance (3,206 jobs), Ambulatory Health expanded employment in industries ranging from a 0.1 percent Care Services (3,386 jobs), and Hospitals (5,676 jobs). During increase in jobs in Information to 5.3 percent in Administra- the recovery, the state has experienced slight declines in three tive & Support Services between the fourth quarters of 2009 and industries: Financial Activities, Wholesale Trade, and Manage- 2010. The Health Care & Social Assistance industry added over ment of Companies & Enterprises. 12,100 jobs, an increase in employment of 2.4 percent in the Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202. recovery to date. Job growth was spread across a number of the sub-industries that make up Health Care & Social Assistance, Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2010.
Q4 2010 Industry Employment Percent Change in Employment, Q4 2009 to Q4 2010
Health Care & Social Assistance 525,914 2.4 Retail Trade 350,208 1.9 Educational Services 342,174 0.6 Accommodation & Food Services 258,596 3.5 Manufacturing 256,439 1.0 Professional & Technical Services 254,242 1.0 Financial Activities 207,634 −1.2 Administrative & Support Services 162,113 5.3 Government 135,575 0.6 Other Services 135,068 4.4 Wholesale Trade 123,932 −1.7 Construction 121,177 0.4 Transportation & Warehousing 97,843 1.4 Information 89,686 0.1 Management of Companies & Enterprises 57,696 −1.5 Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 51,198 3.4 Utilities 14,164 3.2 0 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Total Employment Percent Change
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 27 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF Health Care & Social Assistance 21.2 31.4 47.4 EMPLOYEES BY MAJOR INDUSTRY IN Retail Trade 36.0 30.6 33.4 METRO SOUTH/WEST (2008-2010) Educational Services 10.2 11.9 77.9
Accommodation & Food Services 55.8 28.5 15.7 With a highly educated population working in Metro South/ Manufacturing 25.2 21.9 52.9 West, it is not surprising that most industries in the region have a highly educated workforce. In 2008-2010, 11 of the 17 Professional & Technical Services 5.9 14.3 79.9 major industries in the region had a workforce where more than Financial Activities 14.5 23.7 61.8
40 percent of employees had a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. In Administrative & Support Services 45.3 23.1 31.6 particular, the region had a high concentration of employees with Government 17.5 31.0 51.5 a Bachelor’s Degree or higher in industries that typically employ less educated workers: Manufacturing (52.9 percent) and Whole- Other Services 46.3 23.5 30.2 sale Trade (44.4 percent). In fact, only six industries in the region Wholesale Trade 27.9 27.8 44.4
had employees with educational levels of a High School Degree Construction 54.9 25.5 19.6 or less as their largest category. Even in these industries, the Transportation & Warehousing 42.4 39.2 18.4 majority of employees tend to have at least Some College education or higher, with the exception of Construction and Information 12.6 20.0 67.4 Accommodation & Food Services which have a majority of Management of Companies & Enterprises 32.8 67.2
employees with a High School Degree or less. Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 26.1 26.7 47.2
Source: US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Utilities 30.0 25.1 45.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2010. Percent
High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 28 www.bostonfed.org/neppc EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF Health Care & Social Assistance 23.0 33.2 43.8 EMPLOYEES BY MAJOR INDUSTRY IN Retail Trade 42.1 33.1 24.8 MASSACHUSETTS (2008-2010) Educational Services 11.7 15.5 72.7
Accommodation & Food Services 52.9 30.4 16.7 The educational attainment across the industries of Metro South/ West is much higher than the educational attainment of employ- Manufacturing 37.3 23.8 38.8 ees by industry in Massachusetts. In Massachusetts, only eight Professional & Technical Services 8.0 15.9 76.1 of the 17 major industries have a workforce where more than Financial Activities 16.6 26.3 57.1
40 percent of employees have a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. And Administrative & Support Services 46.7 26.8 26.5 in nearly every major industry statewide, the share of employees Government 20.2 31.2 48.6 with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher is less than their industrial counterparts in Metro South/West. Even industries that tradition- Other Services 47.5 26.6 25.9 ally have lower levels of educational attainment among employees, Wholesale Trade 38.0 28.4 33.7 particularly Utilities, Wholesale Trade, and Manufacturing have Construction 56.5 27.6 16.0 a higher share of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher Transportation & Warehousing 45.5 35.8 18.7 in Metro South/West. Conversely, nearly every major industry statewide has a larger share of employees with a High School Information 18.1 25.8 56.1 Degree or less compared with Metro South/West, with the excep- Management of Companies & Enterprises 4.7 34.7 60.6 tion of Accommodation & Food Services. Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 29.2 27.1 43.8
Utilities 31.9 35.4 32.7 Source: US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent Note: Industries are sorted by size in Massachusetts in Q4 2010. High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 29 EMPLOYMENT BY MAJOR Office & Administrative Support 73,103 OCCUPATION: METRO SOUTH/WEST Management 79,377 (2008-2010) Sales 66,046
Education, Training, & Library Services 44,906 Industries are where people work, but occupations are what people do. Occupations help to capture what types of workers are Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 29,553
in demand by businesses. In Metro South/West, Management is Business & Financial Operations 36,999 the largest occupational group, accounting for over 13 percent Food Preparation & Serving 21,852 of the region’s jobs. The number of Management jobs has grown over the past decade. While Office & Administrative Support Production 22,065 occupations are the second largest occupational group, jobs in these Construction & Extraction 25,051
occupations have declined over the past decade. Occupations Transportation & Material Moving 19,168 that are closely associated with growing industries have increased, Computer & Mathematical 35,498 such as Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services occupations with very high employment in the Education & Health Services. Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 22,450
Similarly, some occupations, such as Production occupations, that Personal Care & Service 20,230 are strongly concentrated in Manufacturing have declined. Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 14,185
Healthcare Support 10,088 Source: US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Architecture & Engineering 19,984 Note: All Other occupations are composed of Community & Social Services, Legal, Protective Services, Farming, Fishing & Forestry, and Military Specific. Occupations are Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 15,783 sorted largest to smallest by size in Massachusetts. See the Data Appendix for occupational employment trends. Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 12,479
All Other 30,266
0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 Total Employment
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 30 www.bostonfed.org/neppc EMPLOYMENT BY MAJOR Office & Administrative Support OCCUPATION: MASSACHUSETTS 427,942 (2008-2010) Management 361,784 Sales 341,987
Massachusetts has a higher concentration of employees Education, Training, & Library Services 224,125 in Office & Administrative Support occupations than does Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 206,570 the Metro South/West region. These occupations account for Business & Financial Operations 182,274 over 13 percent of employment in the state. The state also has higher shares of employees in occupations such as Healthcare Food Preparation & Serving 156,569
Practitioners & Technical Services, and smaller shares in Production 150,718 Business & Financial Operations and Computer & Mathe- Construction & Extraction 141,117 matical occupations. Despite variations in occupational composition, the patterns of occupational growth were similar Transportation & Material Moving 137,293 in Metro South/West and Massachusetts over the past decade. Computer & Mathematical 117,131 The few exceptions were the stronger growth in Healthcare Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance Support occupations at the state level and a slight decline in 113,645 Construction & Extraction occupations in Massachusetts Personal Care & Service 109,130
(while employment in such occupations grew slightly in Metro Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 84,466 South/West). Healthcare Support 82,801 Source: US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Architecture & Engineering 73,448 Note: All Other occupations are composed of Community & Social Services, Legal, Protective Services, Farming, Fishing & Forestry, and Military Specific. Occupations are Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 67,139 sorted largest to smallest by size in Massachusetts. See Data Appendix for occupational employment trends. Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 60,453
All Other 184,712
0 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000 Total Employment
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 31 DISTRIBUTION OF OCCUPATIONS ACROSS SUPERSECTORS IN GREATER BOSTON (2008-2010)
Because changes in industries and occupations impact each other, Management occupations are distributed across many industries. it is important to see how occupations are distributed across indus- Other occupations are split between a few major industries. For tries. Unfortunately, data limitations make this difficult to do so for example, Business & Financial Operations occupations are strongly small geographic regions. However, due to the similarities and inte- concentrated in the supersectors Professional & Business Services gration between the Metro South/West and Boston/Metro North (30.5 percent) and Financial Activities (32.2 percent). labor markets, we can combine the regions to see where groups Source: US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. of employees are concentrated in what we call the Greater Boston region. Some occupations are concentrated in one or several Note: Due to sample size limitations in the Census and American Community Survey it is not possible to provide an occupational distribution across industries for small industries, while other occupations are spread across a num- geographic areas. Therefore Metro South/West was grouped with Boston/Metro North ber of industries. Consider that nearly 90 percent of Healthcare to increase observations to provide an occupation/industry distribution for Greater Boston. While there are differences between these two labor markets, industrial and Practitioners & Technical occupations are located in the occupational concentrations are similar enough to be representative of the distributions Education & Health Services supersector. In contrast, jobs in for both labor markets.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 32 www.bostonfed.org/neppc DISTRIBUTION OF OCCUPATIONS ACROSS SUPERSECTORS IN GREATER BOSTON (2008-2010)
Education Trade, Professional & Health Transportation, & Business Leisure Financial All Services & Utilities Services Manufacturing & Hospitality Activities Construction Other Industries Office & Administrative Support 22.9 22.9 15.1 6.3 3.5 14.3 2.0 12.8 100.0 Management 19.4 6.9 20.2 12.2 6.6 16.0 6.0 12.7 100.0 Sales 2.0 58.5 6.0 5.1 4.7 17.6 0.4 5.7 100.0 Education, Training, & 93.7 0.4 1.2 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.2 100.0 Library Services Healthcare Practitioners & 89.5 4.1 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.0 100.0 Technical Services Business & Financial Operations 8.9 8.6 30.5 7.1 1.2 32.2 1.2 10.1 100.0 Food Preparation & Serving 10.6 3.8 0.4 0.9 82.4 0.3 0.0 1.7 100.0 Production 3.4 12.1 5.5 61.6 2.5 1.6 2.1 11.2 100.0 Construction & Extraction 1.8 3.5 2.2 2.1 0.5 1.3 85.5 3.1 100.0 Transportation & Material Moving 4.0 66.2 5.7 6.4 4.8 2.1 3.6 7.2 100.0 Computer & Mathematical 11.9 5.3 48.0 11.6 0.4 12.5 0.2 10.1 100.0 Building and Grounds Cleaning & 19.7 4.3 44.3 1.9 10.3 3.7 0.7 15.2 100.0 Maintenance Personal Care & Service 36.0 7.2 1.8 0.1 15.0 0.2 0.0 39.8 100.0 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 5.6 25.7 7.3 10.7 1.9 6.0 8.9 34.0 100.0 Healthcare Support 88.0 1.4 2.1 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.3 100.0 Architecture & Engineering 2.8 4.9 42.3 37.0 0.7 0.5 4.0 7.8 100.0 Arts, Design, Entertainment, 11.2 6.5 27.8 6.2 16.1 2.1 0.4 29.7 100.0 Sports, & Media Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 41.0 0.8 36.7 14.0 1.1 1.5 0.1 4.8 100.0 All Other 21.5 1.7 31.5 1.2 2.0 2.8 0.1 39.3 100.0
All Occupations 26.1 15.0 17.0 8.1 7.1 9.3 5.1 12.3 100.0
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 33 DISTRIBUTION OF OCCUPATIONS WITHIN SUPERSECTORS IN GREATER BOSTON (2008-2010)
We can also consider what the distribution of occupations within largest occupational groups, Office & Administrative Support and a given supersector looks like. Certain occupations account for Management, together account for roughly 20 percent or more of the majority of employment within a supersector. For example, all occupations employed within every supersector. nearly 50 percent of employment in Greater Boston’s Educa- Source: US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. tion & Health Services supersector comes from two occupations: Education, Training & Library Services and Healthcare Prac- Note: Due to sample size limitations in the Census and American Community Survey it is not possible to provide an occupational distribution across industries for small titioners & Technical occupations. Further, the Construction geographic areas. Therefore Metro South/West was grouped with Boston/Metro North supersector has two-thirds of its employment in Construction & to increase observations to provide an occupation/industry distribution for Greater Boston. While there are differences between these two labor markets, industrial and Extraction occupations. occupational concentrations are similar enough to be representative of the distributions for both labor markets. While some occupations account for an overwhelming majority of the employment in a given supersector, others are consistently a large share of employment in each supersector. In fact, the two
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 34 www.bostonfed.org/neppc DISTRIBUTION OF OCCUPATIONS WITHIN SUPERSECTORS IN GREATER BOSTON (2008-2010)
Education Trade, Professional & Health Transportation, & Business Leisure Financial All Services & Utilities Services Manufacturing & Hospitality Activities Construction Other Industries Office & Administrative Support 10.9 19.0 11.0 9.7 6.1 19.1 4.9 13.0 12.4 Management 9.5 5.9 15.1 19.2 11.8 21.9 15.0 13.2 12.8 Sales 0.7 38.2 3.4 6.2 6.4 18.5 0.9 4.5 9.8 Education, Training, & Library Services 24.7 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 1.8 6.9 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 22.5 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.1 6.6 Business & Financial Operations 2.5 4.2 13.1 6.4 1.3 25.3 1.8 6.0 7.3 Food Preparation & Serving 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.5 49.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 4.2 Production 0.4 2.5 1.0 23.1 1.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 3.1 Construction & Extraction 0.3 0.9 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.6 66.7 1.0 4.0 Transportation & Material Moving 0.5 15.2 1.1 2.7 2.3 0.8 2.4 2.0 3.4 Computer & Mathematical 2.3 1.8 14.4 7.3 0.3 6.9 0.2 4.2 5.1 Building and Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 2.6 1.0 8.9 0.8 4.9 1.4 0.4 4.2 3.4 Personal Care & Service 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.3 0.1 0.0 9.7 3.0 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 0.5 3.9 1.0 2.9 0.6 1.4 3.9 6.2 2.2 Healthcare Support 6.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.8 Architecture & Engineering 0.3 0.9 6.5 11.8 0.3 0.1 2.0 1.7 2.6 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 1.1 1.1 4.3 2.0 5.9 0.6 0.2 6.3 2.6 Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 4.4 0.1 6.0 4.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 2.8 All Other 5.0 0.7 11.3 0.9 1.7 1.8 0.1 19.6 6.1
All Occupations 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 35 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF Office & Administrative Support 35.8 40.3 24.0
EMPLOYEES BY MAJOR OCCUPATION Management 10.2 22.6 67.1
IN METRO SOUTH/WEST (2000) Sales 29.6 27.6 42.8
Education, Training, & Library Services 5.0 10.8 84.2
By looking at the educational attainment of an occupational Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 30.8 65.3
group, we better understand the education required in that field Business & Financial Operations 8.9 18.9 72.2
of employment. In 2000, in Office & Administrative Support Food Preparation & Serving 64.0 26.6 9.4
occupations, over 40 percent of employees had Some College edu- Production 66.1 23.7 10.2 cation or an Associate’s Degree, and 24.0 percent of the workers Construction & Extraction 64.0 26.0 10.0 had a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. By comparison, 67.1 percent Transportation & Material Moving 68.0 23.2 8.7 of employees in Management had a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. Educational attainment gives some indication of the skills require- Computer & Mathematical 4.7 20.9 74.4 ment, but it is not a perfect proxy for skill. Some occupations Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 73.6 20.2 6.2 require significant training or other certification. For example, in Personal Care & Service 42.6 32.6 24.8 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair occupations over 50 percent Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 53.7 35.6 10.7 of employees have a High School Degree or less, but these occupa- Healthcare Support 43.8 39.0 17.2
tions often require apprenticeships, professional certifications, or Architecture & Engineering 7.6 24.0 68.4
significant on-the-job training. Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 10.6 19.1 70.3
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files. Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 7.9 88.4 All Other 20.9 23.5 55.6
Note: Occupations are sorted by size in Massachusetts in 2008-2010 American 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Community Survey PUMS data files. Percent
High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 36 www.bostonfed.org/neppc EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF Office & Administrative Support 32.4 37.8 29.8
EMPLOYEES BY MAJOR OCCUPATION Management 10.1 18.6 71.4
IN METRO SOUTH/WEST (2008-2010) Sales 28.3 27.3 44.3
Education, Training, & Library Services 11.6 83.9
Over the past decade, the education levels of workers in nearly all Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 6.7 27.7 65.7 occupations have increased. For example, the share of employees Business & Financial Operations 5.6 13.9 80.5 working in management jobs who hold a Bachelor’s Degree or Food Preparation & Serving 60.1 29.8 10.0 higher grew by over 4 percentage points to reach 71.4 percent in Production 60.3 22.6 17.1 2008-2010. Even occupations with a mix of educational levels, Construction & Extraction 63.4 26.7 9.9 such as Office & Administrative Support, saw declines in the share Transportation & Material Moving 58.7 30.1 11.2 of employees with an Associate’s Degree or less and growth in the share of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. The edu- Computer & Mathematical 15.3 81.3 cational attainment of employees even increased in occupations Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 73.4 19.1 7.5 where workers traditionally have less education, such as Produc- Personal Care & Service 43.9 31.8 24.3 tion. As such, nine occupations in the region had a majority of Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 52.8 36.4 10.8 employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher in 2008-2010, while Healthcare Support 40.5 42.4 17.1 six occupations had a majority of employees with a High School Architecture & Engineering 5.9 17.1 76.9
Degree or less. The remaining four occupational groups had a Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 7.7 16.0 76.2 majority of employees with Some College education or higher. Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 9.1 89.1
All Other 13.7 21.0 65.2 Source: US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Note: Occupations are sorted by size in Massachusetts in 2008-2010 American Percent Community Survey PUMS data files. High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 37 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF Office & Administrative Support 35.3 40.4 24.3 EMPLOYEES BY MAJOR OCCUPATION Management 13.5 21.2 65.3
IN MASSACHUSETTS (2008-2010) Sales 31.5 31.0 37.5
Education, Training, & Library Services 5.8 13.2 81.0
The higher level of educational attainment of workers in Metro Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Services 6.4 29.9 63.8
South/West in different occupations stands out in compari- Business & Financial Operations 7.4 18.7 73.8
son with the educational levels in Massachusetts. Within the 19 Food Preparation & Serving 57.9 30.2 11.8 major occupation groups in Massachusetts, 17 have a lower share Production 65.6 23.2 11.1 of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher compared Construction & Extraction 64.0 27.2 8.8 with those in Metro South/West. This includes occupations Transportation & Material Moving 63.4 27.4 9.2 that have a majority of employees with high levels of education (e.g., Management and Business), mixed educational attainment Computer & Mathematical 18.4 76.8 (e.g., Office & Administrative Support), and predominantly low- Building, Grounds Cleaning, & Maintenance 71.6 20.0 8.5 er education levels (e.g., Production). In only two occupational Personal Care & Service 44.7 35.2 20.1 groups (Building and Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance and Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 55.4 35.3 9.4 Food Preparation & Serving) is the share of employees with a Healthcare Support 42.5 44.2 13.3
High School Degree or less higher in Metro South/West than in Architecture & Engineering 7.7 21.0 71.3
Massachusetts. Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 10.7 18.6 70.7
Source: US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. Life, Physical, & Social Sciences 7.7 88.8 All Other 16.2 22.9 60.9 Note: Occupations are sorted by size in Massachusetts in 2008-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data files. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent
High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 38 www.bostonfed.org/neppc Job Vacancy Rates
5 Q4 2007 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 JOB VACANCIES IN THE GREAT 4 3.4 RECESSION AND RECOVERY 3.2 2.9 3 2.8
2.3 2.2
Job vacancies exist even in a healthy labor market due to turnover Vacancy Rate 2 and constant flux in the labor market. As businesses expand, they need to hire individuals who meet specific skill requirements, and 1 employees with skills that are in demand leave jobs for better posi- tions. As the economy enters a downturn, job vacancies decline 0 due to an overall decline in labor demand, an increase in the num- n s t y t ber of applicants available to fill positions, and lower turnover as Berkshire Northeas Southeas employees stay longer in jobs. Preceding the Great Recession, the Central Mas Greater Bosto Massachusetts Cape & Islands Pioneer Valle job vacancy rate in Greater Boston was 3.4 percent at the end of 2007. During the Great Recession, the vacancy rate declined by Distribution of Job Vacancies Across Regional Labor Markets, Q4 2010 more than a full percentage point by the end of 2009, and as the Cape & Islands Berkshire economy has recovered, it has since risen to near 3.0 percent. As 2.7% 2.6% Central Mass the largest labor market in the state, Greater Boston accounts for 8.2% more than 45 percent of employment. However, nearly 55 percent of the job vacancies in Massachusetts are in Greater Boston. Pioneer Valley 8.5% Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Job Vacancy Survey.
Note: The Massachusetts Job Vacancy Survey is collected for seven regions in the state. The Greater Boston Region covers portions of the Boston/Metro North, Metro South/ West, Central Mass, and Southeastern regions of the regional labor market profiles. The vacancy information for the Greater Boston region is used as an approximation of the Southeast vacancies trends experienced in the Metro South/West and Boston/Metro North regions. 10.9% Vacancy rates are calculated by taking the total number of job vacancies and dividing by the total number employed in the region. Greater Boston 54.6%
Northeast 12.6%
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 39 JOB VACANCIES AND VACANCY Share of Job Vacancy Number of Vacancy Rate RATES BY MAJOR OCCUPATION IN Vacancies (Percent) (Percent) GREATER BOSTON (Q4 2010) Total 42,880 100.0 2.9 Sales 8,798 20.5 5.5 Office & Administrative Support 4,737 11.0 1.7 At the end of 2010, nearly 70 percent of the vacancies in Greater Food Preparation & Serving Related 3,916 9.1 3.2 Boston were concentrated in six occupations. Sales positions Business & Financial Operations 4,079 9.5 3.6 accounted for the largest share of vacancies (20.5 percent) and Healthcare Practitioner & Technical 2,278 5.3 1.9 had the highest vacancy rate (5.5 percent) of all occupations in Computer & Mathematical 4,092 9.5 4.6 Greater Boston. Some of these positions, especially in retail, are Management 3,562 8.3 3.3 seasonal in nature. Other occupations with a large number of Healthcare Support 1,500 3.5 3.6 vacancies and an above-average vacancy rate included Computer Transportation & Material Moving 1,142 2.7 1.8 & Mathematical occupations, Business & Financial Operations, Education, Training & Library 1,638 3.8 1.6 and Management occupations. Some large occupational groups Personal Care & Service 991 2.3 2.4 such as Office & Administrative Support account for a large Production 429 1.0 0.8 number of vacancies (11.0 percent), but they have a relatively Architecture & Engineering 1,061 2.5 2.4 low vacancy rate (1.7 percent). Not surprisingly, the number of Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 438 1.0 0.8 vacancies and vacancy rates in occupations hit hard by the Great Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media 1,060 2.5 3.2 Recession, such as Production, were extremely low in the region. Community & Social Services 650 1.5 2.1
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Job Life, Physical, & Social Services 1,074 2.5 2.8 Vacancy Survey. Installation, Maintenance & Repair 296 0.7 0.7 Note: Vacancy rates are calculated by taking the total number of job vacancies and Protective Service 662 1.5 1.6 dividing by the total number employed in the occupation. Construction & Extraction 265 0.6 0.6 Legal 187 0.4 1.0
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 40 www.bostonfed.org/neppc JOB VACANCIES AND VACANCY Share of Job Vacancy Number of Vacancy Rate RATES BY MAJOR OCCUPATION IN Vacancies (Percent) (Percent) Total 78,589 100.0 2.8 MASSACHUSETTS (Q4 2010) Sales 16,584 21.1 5.2 Office & Administrative Support 8,650 11.0 1.6 Similar to Greater Boston, the largest number of job vacancies Food Preparation & Serving Related 8,195 10.4 3.1 and highest vacancy rates in Massachusetts are in Sales occupa- Business & Financial Operations 6,079 7.7 3.6 tions. However, in contrast to Metro South/West, vacancies are Healthcare Practitioner & Technical 5,249 6.7 2.3 somewhat less concentrated in a few occupations. In Massachu- Computer & Mathematical 4,950 6.3 4.0 setts, there are lower shares of vacancies in Business & Financial Management 4,595 5.8 2.5 Operations, and Computer & Mathematical occupations and Healthcare Support 3,634 4.6 3.8 larger shares in Transportation & Material Moving and Healthcare Transportation & Material Moving 3,214 4.1 2.1 Support occupations, as compared with Greater Boston. While Education, Training & Library 2,895 3.7 1.3 most occupations in Massachusetts have similar vacancy rates to Personal Care & Service 2,055 2.6 2.4 Greater Boston, a few occupations have higher vacancy rates state- Production 1,774 2.3 1.1 wide (e.g., Production) while the vacancy rates in others, such as Architecture & Engineering 1,734 2.2 2.3 Management, are larger in Greater Boston. Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 1,555 2.0 1.5
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Job Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media 1,421 1.8 2.7 Vacancy Survey. Community & Social Services 1,411 1.8 2.2
Note: Vacancy rates are calculated by taking the total number of job vacancies and Life, Physical, & Social Services 1,398 1.8 2.6 dividing by the total number employed in the occupation. Installation, Maintenance & Repair 1,160 1.5 1.2 Protective Service 1,124 1.4 1.5 Construction & Extraction 583 0.7 0.6 Legal 244 0.3 1.0
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 41 COMPARING VACANCY RATES 7 Greater Boston AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: Massachusetts PEAK LABOR MARKET 6 Linear (Greater Boston) Linear (Massachusetts)
5 Before entering the Great Recession, there was a correlation between educational attainment and job vacancies in both Greater Boston and Massachusetts. That is, occupations with workers who 4 have higher levels of educational attainment had higher vacancy rates. This is not surprising, as occupations that have larger shares 3 of employees with a High School Degree or less can sometimes Occupational Vacancy Rate be filled by a number of individuals with less training and at 2 lower costs to employers. In contrast, jobs in highly specialized
occupations that require specific educational requirements face 1 competition both regionally and globally for the limited number of individuals who can fill such positions. Further, strong growth 0 in industries that employ large shares of individuals with high 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 levels of educational attainment, such as Health Care & Social Share of Employees with Post−Secondary Education by Major Occupation Assistance and Professional & Technical Services, led to increased vacancies and demand for employees who can fill such positions.
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Job Vacancy Survey and US Census Bureau 2005-2007 American Community Survey.
Note: Occupational vacancy rates for Greater Boston in Q4 2007 proxy vacancy rates in a peak labor market and educational attainment data by occupation in Greater Boston from the 2005-2007 American Community Survey proxy share of employees with a post-secondary education in a peak labor market. Workers have attained a post-secondary education if they have attended Some College or obtained an Associate’s Degree, Bachelor’s Degree, or Master’s Degree or higher.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 42 www.bostonfed.org/neppc COMPARING VACANCY RATES 7 Greater Boston AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: Massachusetts RECOVERING LABOR MARKET 6 Linear (Greater Boston) Linear (Massachusetts)
5 In Greater Boston and Massachusetts, occupations with higher educational attainment typically had higher job vacancy rates. As the recession impacted the regional and state labor markets this 4 relationship has persisted, though it is weaker in both labor mar- kets than in the peak market situation. However, in both peak and 3 recovering labor markets there is a slightly stronger relationship Occupational Vacancy Rate between vacancies and educational attainment in Greater Boston 2 compared to Massachusetts. This slightly stronger relationship may be driven by three factors: (1) the higher educational attain- 1 ment of employees in nearly all occupations in Greater Boston, (2) the higher regional vacancy rates in occupations with predomi- 0 nantly higher levels of education, such as Management, and lower 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 vacancy rates in occupations that require less education, such as Share of Employees with Post−Secondary Education by Major Occupation Production, and (3) the stronger labor market recovery in Greater Boston, driven by the growth of the Metro South/West region, resulting in more vacancies in occupations with higher educational attainment among employees.
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Job Vacancy Survey and US Census Bureau 2008-2010 American Community Survey.
Note: Occupational vacancy rates for Greater Boston in Q4 2010 proxy vacancy rates in a recovering labor market and educational attainment data by occupation in Greater Boston from the 2008-2010 American Community Survey proxy share of employees with a post-secondary education in a recovering labor market. Workers have attained a post-secondary education if they have attended Some College or obtained an Associate’s Degree, Bachelor’s Degree, or Master’s Degree or higher.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 43 GROWTH IN POTENTIAL SUPPLY OF EDUCATED WORKERS: FULL-TIME ENROLLMENT TRENDS IN THE PAST DECADE Between 2000 and 2010, the number of full-time students Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System. enrolled at two- and four-year institutions grew in Metro South/ West, Massachusetts, and the United States. Enrollment in private Note: Enrollment data are from the fall semester of the academic year. For example, 2010 enrollment is from the fall of 2009 of the 2009-2010 academic year. Enrollment two- and four-year institutions in Metro South/West has grown data are provided by the type of institution. Students can earn different types of degrees more robustly than enrollment in public institutions, but the within an institution. For example, the enrollment at a community college would be categorized as being in a two-year institution for all students enrolled that year. However, number of students enrolled in public two-year institutions is students at community colleges complete different types of programs, such as Certificates much greater than those in private. In contrast, in Massachusetts, and Associate’s Degrees. the growth in enrollments in public institutions has outpaced that of private institutions. Full-time enrollment in less-than-two-year institutions in Metro South/West has declined in the past decade, while increasing in both Massachusetts and the United States.
Less-than-Two-Year Institutions Two-Year Institutions Four-Year Institutions Metro Metro Metro South/West MA US South/West MA US South/West MA US Enrollment 2000 105 382 43,504 5,075 31,002 2,008,336 3,083 58,489 3,733,341 Enrollment 2010 56 316 42,117 6,326 44,278 2,922,622 3,121 73,940 4,904,272 Absolute Change -49 -66 -1,387 1,251 13,276 914,286 38 15,451 1,170,931 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) -6.1 -1.9 -0.3 2.2 3.6 3.8 0.1 2.4 2.8 Enrollment 2000 509 3,427 138,260 1,260 5,796 259,071 23,683 125,640 1,863,471 Enrollment 2010 317 9,609 277,341 2,362 5,457 457,134 28,667 153,139 3,000,813 Absolute Change -192 6,182 139,081 1,102 -339 198,063 4,984 27,499 1,137,342 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) -4.6 10.9 7.2 6.5 -0.6 5.8 1.9 2.0 4.9 Private Public Enrollment 2000 614 3,809 181,764 6,335 36,798 2,267,407 26,766 184,129 5,596,812 Enrollment 2010 373 9,925 319,458 8,688 49,735 3,379,756 31,788 227,079 7,905,085
Total Absolute Change -241 6,116 137,694 2,353 12,937 1,112,349 5,022 42,950 2,308,273 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) -4.9 10.1 5.8 3.2 3.1 4.1 1.7 2.1 3.5
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 44 www.bostonfed.org/neppc NUMBER OF FULL-TIME ENROLLEES 45,000 Less-than-Two-Year Institutions BY TYPE OF DEGREE GRANTING 40,000 Two-Year Institutions INSTITUTION IN METRO SOUTH/WEST Four-Year Institutions (2000-2010) 35,000
Four-year institutions continue to account for most of the full- 30,000 time enrollment in higher education institutions in Metro South/ West, but their share fell over the past decade from 79.4 percent 25,000 in 2000 to 77.8 percent in 2010. From 2000 to 2006, enrollment in four-year institutions in the region grew at an annualized rate 20,000 of 2.2 percent. From 2006 to 2010, annual growth in enrollment 15,000 in four-year institutions slowed to 1.0 percent. Conversely, enroll- Number of Full−Time Enrollees ment in two-year institutions in Metro South/West grew more 10,000 slowly at the beginning of the decade, growing at 1.1 percent between 2000 and 2006, but increased to an annualized growth 5,000 rate of 6.4 percent between 2006 and 2010. 0
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Data System.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 45 GROWTH IN POTENTIAL SUPPLY OF EDUCATED WORKERS: PART-TIME ENROLLMENT TRENDS IN THE PAST DECADE Growth in part-time enrollment in Metro South/West has Metro South/West but grew at a robust annual rate of 5.7 percent occurred only at two-year institutions. Between 2000 and statewide, due largely to growing enrollment in private institu- 2010, the overall part-time enrollment at two-year institutions in tions. Part-time enrollment in four-year institutions has actually Metro South/West grew at an annual rate of 2.6 percent. This was declined in both Metro South/West and Massachusetts over the the result of a 3.2 percent annual growth in enrollment at public past decade. two-year institutions in the region, which exceeded the growth Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education of public two-year institutions in Massachusetts (1.8 percent) Data System. and in the United States (1.9 percent). In contrast, part-time enrollment in less-than-two-year institutions stagnated in the
Less-than-Two-Year Institutions Two-Year Institutions Four-Year Institutions Metro Metro Metro South/West MA US South/West MA US South/West MA US Enrollment 2000 0 25 31,407 6,286 48,506 3,509,639 1,213 22,160 1,045,388 Enrollment 2010 0 65 27,264 8,646 58,043 4,247,674 726 16,120 1,380,877 Absolute Change 0 40 -4,143 2,360 9,537 738,035 -487 -6,040 335,489 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) NA 10.0 -1.4 3.2 1.8 1.9 -5.0 -3.1 2.8 Enrollment 2000 166 1,522 31,827 558 3,536 66,870 3,768 27,425 476,690 Enrollment 2010 166 2,633 44,382 191 1,554 61,006 1,780 19,155 775,694 Absolute Change 0 1,111 12,555 -367 -1,982 -5,864 -1,988 -8,270 299,004 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 0.0 5.6 3.4 -10.2 -7.9 -0.9 -7.2 -3.5 5.0 Private Public Enrollment 2000 166 1,547 63,234 6,844 52,042 3,576,509 4,981 49,585 1,522,078 Enrollment 2010 166 2,698 71,646 8,837 59,597 4,308,680 2,506 35,275 2,156,571
Total Absolute Change 0 1,151 8,412 1,993 7,555 732,171 -2,475 -14,310 634,493 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 0.0 5.7 1.3 2.6 1.4 1.9 -6.6 -3.3 3.5
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 46 www.bostonfed.org/neppc NUMBER OF PART-TIME ENROLLEES 14,000 Less-than-Two-Year Institutions BY TYPE OF DEGREE GRANTING Two-Year Institutions INSTITUTION IN METRO SOUTH/WEST 12,000 Four-Year Institutions (2000-2010) 10,000
Part-time enrollment in two-year institutions in Metro South/ West has picked up in the past few years. Between 2000 and 2006, 8,000 part-time enrollment in two-year institutions grew at annual rate of 1.6 percent. But between 2006 and 2010, part-time enrollment 6,000 grew at an annual rate of 4.0 percent. As a result, the number of
students enrolled part-time in two-year institutions as a share of Number of Part−Time Enrollees 4,000 total part-time students in Metro South/West increased from over 57 percent in 2000 to nearly 77 percent in 2010. 2,000
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System. 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 47 GRADUATION RATES BY TYPE 100 Total OF DEGREE (2009) 90 Public Private 80
70
Enrollment indicates a potential supply of post-secondary educated 60 labor, but the actual supply depends on how many students 50 complete and earn a degree or receive a Certificate. In 2009, about 40 77 percent of first-time full-time students in Metro South/West Graduation Rate institutions earned a Bachelor’s Degree within six years. This rate 30 is higher than the statewide rate and substantially higher than 20
the national rate, reflecting the high graduation rates of private 10 institutions in the region. The six-year Bachelor’s Degree gradua- 0 tion rate at public institutions (52.2 percent) is lower than those at private institutions but fairly similar to those institutions in
United States United States United States Massachusetts and the United States. The three-year Associate’s Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Degree graduation rate (21.2 percent), on the other hand, is Metro South/West Metro South/West Metro South/West substantially lower in the region and in Massachusetts, as Certificate Programs Associate’s Degrees Bachelor’s Degrees compared with national graduation rate. The Certificate program graduation rate is higher in Metro South/West (74.3 percent) than those statewide and nationally. In contrast with the findings for Bachelor’s Degrees, the Certificate program graduation rate of public institutions is much higher than those of private ones in Massachusetts.
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System.
Note: Graduation rates are the number of first-time full-time students who completed their degree/program within 150 percent of the time expected to complete the degree/ program as a share of the number of first-time full-time students that started the degree/ program (e.g., a Bachelor’s Degree is considered to have been earned on time if it is completed within six years or less, or 150 percent of four years).
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 48 www.bostonfed.org/neppc CROSSING THE FINISH LINE: TRENDS IN DEGREE COMPLETIONS OVER THE PAST DECADE (2000-2010)
Total annual completions show the number of people who have Certificates from public institutions declined at a slight annual earned a degree or certificate in a given year. From 2000 to 2010, rate of 0.4 percent. Over the same period, both private and public the number of Bachelor’s and Associate’s Degrees granted by institutions in Massachusetts and the United States increased the institutions in the region increased while the number of Certifi- number of Certificates at an annual rate exceeding 4.0 percent. cates granted by institutions in Metro South/West were almost the Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education same. In comparison, both Massachusetts and the United States Data System. increased the number of degrees granted in all three categories at a Note: Degree completions are for those students who completed degrees at institutions faster pace than the region. The number of completed Certificates within the defined geography. The students may not actually live in the region. from private institutions in the Metro South/West region grew at a Completion totals are based on degrees completed in an academic year. For example, 2010 completions represent degrees completed in the 2009-2010 academic year. low annual rate of 0.6 percent over the course of the decade, while
Certificates Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees Metro Metro Metro South/West MA US South/West MA US South/West MA US Completions 2000 422 2,273 298,282 1,072 7,487 471,339 571 12,718 811,076 Completions 2010 407 3,618 460,865 1,401 9,831 670,395 722 16,251 1,049,058 Absolute Change -15 1,345 162,583 329 2,344 199,056 151 3,533 237,982 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) -0.4 4.8 4.4 2.7 2.8 3.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 Completions 2000 361 5,221 258,503 1,342 3,812 135,604 5,533 29,658 431,412 Completions 2010 382 8,195 430,685 1,330 4,366 249,258 6,456 35,972 603,141 Absolute Change 21 2,974 172,182 -12 554 113,654 923 6,314 171,729
Private Public Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 0.6 4.6 5.2 -0.1 1.4 6.3 1.6 1.9 3.4 Enrollment 2000 783 7,494 556,785 2,414 11,299 606,943 6,104 42,376 1,242,488 Enrollment 2010 789 11,813 891,550 2,731 14,197 919,653 7,178 52,223 1,652,199 Total Absolute Change 6 4,319 334,765 317 2,898 312,710 1,074 9,847 409,711 Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 0.1 4.7 4.8 1.2 2.3 4.2 1.6 2.1 2.9
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 49 EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS Share of Degree Type AWARDING THE MOST DEGREES IN Public or Degree Completed Institution Type Private Awarded in Region METRO SOUTH/WEST (2010) Bay State School < Two Years Private 245 31.1 of Technology Massachusetts Bay Two Year Public 175 22.2 Nearly a third of the Certificates completed in Metro South/ Community College West institutions in 2010 came from the Bay State School Middlesex Community College Two Year Public 111 14.1 of Technology. Accounting for 245 Certificates in 2010, the Middlesex Community College Two Year Public 1,012 37.1 private institution’s completions more than tripled from the 70 Universal Technical Institute Two Year Private 597 21.9 of Massachusetts Inc. Certificates completed in 2009. In comparison, Massachusetts Bay Massachusetts Bay Two Year Public 389 14.2 Community College and Middlsex Community College, both Community College public institutions, together accounted for over 35 percent of Boston College Four Year Private 2,366 33.0 the region’s Certificates in 2010. These two institutions also Bentley University Four Year Private 1,034 14.4
accounted for over 50 percent of all Associate’s Degrees produced Associate’s Certificates Bachelor’s Brandeis University Four Year Private 804 11.2 by institutions in Metro South/West in 2010. However, the other 50 percent came from a number of private two- and four- year institutions, most notably the Universal Technical Institute of Massachusetts. In contrast, nearly 90 percent of the region’s Bachelor’s Degrees were granted by private institutions. Boston College alone accounted for nearly a third of all Bachelor’s Degrees produced in the region in 2010.
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System.
Note: See the Appendix D for a full list of degree completions by institution.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 50 www.bostonfed.org/neppc NUMBER OF DEGREE COMPLETIONS 12,000 Certificates BY DEGREE TYPE: METRO SOUTH/ Associate’s Bachelor’s WEST (2000-2010) 10,000
Adding up Bachelor’s and Associate’s Degrees and Certificates, 8,000 the total number of people awarded a postsecondary degree by institutions in Metro South/West grew 1.4 percent between 2000 and 2010. Such growth was slower than in Massachusetts (2.5 6,000 percent) and the United States (3.7 percent), as both experienced stronger growth in completions, particularly in Certificates and 4,000
Associate’s Degrees. The low growth in the supply of new gradu- Number of Degrees Completed ates suggests that Metro South/West may have to rely on commut- ers or transplants from other regional labor markets and states to 2,000 meet the needs of its employers who seek to create new high- and middle-skill jobs as the economy continues to recover. While the 0 region may be able to attract highly mobile populations such as 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 recent college graduates with Bachelor’s Degrees, the region may face challenges filling middle-skill positions requiring Associate’s Degrees or Certificates that are often obtained by less mobile student populations.
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 51 CERTIFICATES AWARDED BY MAJOR FIELD OF STUDY (2000-2010)
In Metro South/West, there were fewer Certificates granted in comparison with 2000 and accounted for 49 percent of the in most major fields of study between 2000 and 2010. These region’s Certificates in 2010. Services Certificates include a large losses were slightly offset by increases in the two largest fields range of areas of specialization, including Cosmetology, Law of study: Health Sciences and Services. Health Sciences Certifi- Enforcement, Construction Trades, Sports & Fitness Studies, cates grew from 27 percent of the region’s Certificates in 2000 to Library Sciences, Social Work, Appliance Installation & Repair, 36 percent in 2010. Despite this growth, this increase trailed Welding Technology, and Construction Equipment Operations. behind the experience statewide, where the number of Health Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Science certificates more than doubled to account for almost Data System. 50 percent of Certificates in 2010. Services Certificates, the largest Note: For major fields of study by degree type for the United States, see Appendix D. major in Metro South/West, had 59 more completions in 2010
Metro South/West Massachusetts 2000 2010 2000 2010 Major’s Major’s Major’s Major’s Certificates Share of Total Certificates Share of Total Certificates Share of Total Certificates Share of Total Major Field of Study Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Health Sciences 214 27.3 285 36.1 2,080 27.8 5,638 47.7 Services 331 42.3 390 49.4 2,479 33.1 3,984 33.7 Engineering & Computer Sciences 75 9.6 37 4.7 1,013 13.5 752 6.4 Business 39 5.0 22 2.8 709 9.5 513 4.3 Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences 32 4.1 12 1.5 271 3.6 424 3.6 Legal 26 3.3 14 1.8 132 1.8 189 1.6 Education 38 4.9 15 1.9 129 1.7 87 0.7 Science & Mathematics 17 2.2 6 0.8 248 3.3 80 0.7 Other 11 1.4 8 1.0 81 1.1 146 1.2 Total 783 100.0 789 100.0 7,494 100.0 11,813 100.0
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 52 www.bostonfed.org/neppc ANNUAL COMPLETIONS BY TOP 1,200 FIVE CERTIFICATE MAJORS IN METRO SOUTH/WEST (2000-2010)
The number and type of Certificates awarded by Metro South/ 900 West institutions can fluctuate considerably from year to year. For example, from 2000 to 2010, Services Certificates in Metro South/West grew at an annual rate of 1.7 percent. However, if the comparison was between 2000 and 2009, then Services Certificate 600 completions declined at an annual rate of 6.7 percent. In fact, the number of Service Certificates spiked in 2007 and 2008 but declined again in 2009 to reach their lowest level in the past 10 years. In comparison, the number of Health Science Certificates Number of Degrees Completed has increased at a fairly stable rate over the course of the decade, 300 possibly reflecting persistent demand for employees with such education and training from growing industries, such as Health Care & Social Assistance. 0 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Education Business Engineering & Computer Sciences Health Sciences Services
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 53 ASSOCIATE’S DEGREES AWARDED BY MAJOR FIELD OF STUDY (2000-2010)
The modest growth of Associate’s Degrees granted by institutions number of students completing a Health Sciences Associate’s in Metro South/West was driven by increases in Services majors. Degree statewide increased by over 1,200 over the course of the Between 2000 and 2010, the number of Services degrees complet- decade. In comparison, the number of students completing Health ed more than doubled in the region, nearly doubling the major’s Sciences Associate’s Degrees in Metro South/West remained share of all Associate’s Degrees completed in 2010 to 32 percent. nearly the same. This was similar to the experience of students earning Services Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education degrees statewide, where the number of degree completions nearly Data System. doubled. In addition, Massachusetts also increased the number of completions in its two largest Associate’s Degree majors: Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences and Health Sciences. In fact, the
Metro South/West Massachusetts 2000 2010 2000 2010 Major’s Major’s Major’s Major’s Associate's Share of Total Associate’s Share of Total Associate’s Share of Total Associate’s Share of Total Major Field of Study Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences 686 28.4 711 26.0 3,130 27.7 3,833 27.0 Health Sciences 439 18.2 440 16.1 2,302 20.4 3,559 25.1 Services 420 17.4 868 31.8 1,216 10.8 2,389 16.8 Business 420 17.4 338 12.4 2,198 19.5 2,250 15.8 Engineering & Computer Sciences 295 12.2 246 9.0 1,561 13.8 1,162 8.2 Education 53 2.2 63 2.3 293 2.6 442 3.1 Science & Mathematics 35 1.4 34 1.2 231 2.0 260 1.8 Legal 41 1.7 21 0.8 189 1.7 117 0.8 Other 25 1.0 10 0.4 179 1.6 185 1.3 Total 2,414 100.0 2,731 100.0 11,299 100.0 14,197 100.0
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 54 www.bostonfed.org/neppc ANNUAL COMPLETIONS BY TOP FIVE 3,000 ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE MAJORS IN METRO SOUTH/WEST (2000-2010) 2,500
In large part, the growth in the number of Associate’s Degrees granted in Metro South/West over the decade is due to the spike 2,000 in Services degrees granted in 2009 and 2010. In fact, the total number of Associate’s Degrees granted in the region declined at an annual rate of 1.4 percent from 2000 to 2008. In 2009, the num- 1,500 ber of Services degrees granted in the region nearly doubled from their 2008 level, pushing the total number of Associate’s Degrees awarded in 2009 and 2010 well above 2000 levels. Conversely, 1,000 Health Sciences Associate’s Degree completions began the decade Number of Degrees Completed at 439 degrees and declined to reach a low of 321 in 2003. There- after, the number of Health Sciences Degrees increased to peak 500 at 498 in 2008 before moderating to 440 degree completions in 2010. Given that the Health Care industry has experienced strong growth over this time period and institutions statewide have been 0 increasing the number of Associate’s Degree completions in the 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 field, it is somewhat surprising that the number of Health Sciences graduates from Metro South/West did not increase over the course Engineering & Computer Sciences of the decade. Business Health Sciences Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System. Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences Services
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 55 BACHELOR’S DEGREES AWARDED BY MAJOR FIELD OF STUDY (2000-2010)
More than three-quarters of the Bachelor’s Degrees produced by matics majors). The largest growth in Bachelor’s Degrees in Metro institutions in Metro South/West are in two fields of study: Arts, South/West came from an increase in Health Sciences degrees, Humanities, & Social Sciences (44.7 percent) and Business (32.3 which more than doubled from 133 degrees in 2000 to 311 in percent). The share of Business graduates in the region is notably 2010 to account for 4.3 percent of all Bachelor’s Degrees in the higher than the share in Massachusetts as a whole (32.3 percent region. While this was stronger than the increase statewide, there versus 19.1 percent). In contrast with Massachusetts, the institu- was also strong growth in the number of Health Sciences majors tions in the region have lower concentrations of degrees in the in Massachusetts over the course of the decade. Science, Engineering, Technology, and Mathematics (STEM) Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education fields (Engineering & Computer Sciences and Science & Mathe- Data System.
Metro South/West Massachusetts 2000 2010 2000 2010 Major’s Major’s Major’s Major’s Bachelor's Share of Total Bachelor’s Share of Total Bachelor’s Share of Total Bachelor’s Share of Total Major Field of Study Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Completed (Percent) Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences 2,795 45.8 3,208 44.7 18,891 44.6 23,405 44.8 Business 2,004 32.8 2,320 32.3 7,596 17.9 9,990 19.1 Science & Mathematics 430 7.0 634 8.8 3,818 9.0 5,054 9.7 Engineering & Computer Sciences 231 3.8 224 3.1 3,726 8.8 3,997 7.7 Health Sciences 133 2.2 311 4.3 2,938 6.9 3,589 6.9 Services 49 0.8 78 1.1 2,495 5.9 3,170 6.1 Education 292 4.8 167 2.3 1,922 4.5 1,362 2.6 Legal 16 0.3 8 0.1 176 0.4 190 0.4 Other 154 2.5 228 3.2 797 1.9 1,466 2.8 Total 6,104 100.0 7,178 100.0 42,376 100.0 52,223 100.0
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 5856 www.bostonfed.org/neppc ANNUAL COMPLETIONS BY TOP 7,000 FIVE BACHELOR’S DEGREE MAJORS IN METRO SOUTH/WEST (2000-2010) 6,000
From 2000 to 2010, the number of Bachelor’s Degrees in the Arts, 5,000 Humanities, & Social Sciences and Business fields awarded by institutions in Metro South/West grew steadily. In contrast, 4,000 STEM degrees have ebbed and flowed throughout the decade. Science & Mathematics Bachelor’s Degree completions were consistently around 430 per year for most of the early 2000s 3,000 before rebounding with growth of 6.8 percent annually between 2004 and 2010 to end the decade with a high of 634 Science & 2,000 Mathematics degrees completed. In contrast, the number of com- Number of Degrees Completed pleted Engineering & Computer Sciences degrees experienced a 1,000 short boom between 2000 and 2002 (20.8 percent annual rate of growth), which was then followed by a decline from 2002 to 2010 (5.0 percent annual rate of decline). 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post Secondary Education Data System. Engineering & Computer Sciences Health Sciences Science & Mathematics Business Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region www.bostonfed.org/neppc 57 Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 60 www.bostonfed.org/neppc