Using Forward-Looking Infrared Radiography to Estimate Elk Density and Distribution in Eastern Kentucky

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Using Forward-Looking Infrared Radiography to Estimate Elk Density and Distribution in Eastern Kentucky University of Kentucky UKnowledge University of Kentucky Master's Theses Graduate School 2008 USING FORWARD-LOOKING INFRARED RADIOGRAPHY TO ESTIMATE ELK DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTION IN EASTERN KENTUCKY Lauren M. Dahl University of Kentucky Right click to open a feedback form in a new tab to let us know how this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Dahl, Lauren M., "USING FORWARD-LOOKING INFRARED RADIOGRAPHY TO ESTIMATE ELK DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTION IN EASTERN KENTUCKY" (2008). University of Kentucky Master's Theses. 570. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/gradschool_theses/570 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in University of Kentucky Master's Theses by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ABSTRACT OF THESIS USING FORWARD-LOOKING INFRARED RADIOGRAPHY TO ESTIMATE ELK DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTION IN EASTERN KENTUCKY Elk (Cervus elaphus) in eastern Kentucky appear to have increased in number since reintroduction in 1997, but rugged landscapes and cryptic elk behavior have precluded use of typical population survey methods to accurately estimate population size. In December 2006, I used forward-looking infrared radiography (FLIR) to survey the elk population in eastern Kentucky. Elk locations identified by FLIR were used to create a landscape based model to estimate the density distribution of elk within a 7,088 km2 core area of the elk restoration zone. FLIR detected 76% of elk groups of < 10 individuals and 100% of elk groups of ≥ 10 individuals. The density of elk was positively associated with the amount of herbaceous area, herbaceous edge, herbaceous area weighted mean patch fractal dimensions, proximity to release sites, the number of elk released at each site and urban core area index, and negatively associated with road density. My model estimated the elk population at 7,001 (SE = 772, 95% CI = 5,488- 8,514) individuals within the core area, 53% of which were < 10 km from release sites. The predicted elk distribution pattern and abundance estimate derived from this model will be important for wildlife managers in successfully managing the Kentucky elk population. KEY WORDS: Elk, Forward-Looking Infrared Radiography, Kentucky, Population Model, Wildlife Survey Lauren M. Dahl _ 12/19/08 _ USING FORWARD-LOOKING INFRARED RADIOGRAPHY TO ESTIMATE ELK DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTION IN EASTERN KENTUCKY By Lauren M. Dahl John J. Cox _ Co-Director of Thesis Michael J. Lacki _ Co-Director of Thesis David B. Wagner _ Director of Graduate Studies 12/19/08 _ RULES FOR THE USE OF THESIS Unpublished theses submitted for the Master’s degree and deposited in the University of Kentucky Library are, as a rule, open for inspection but are to be used only with due regard to the rights of the authors. Bibliographical references may be noted, but quotations or summaries of parts may be published only with the permission of the author, and with the usual scholarly acknowledgments. Extensive copying or publication of the thesis in whole or in part also requires the consent of the Dean of the Graduate School of the University of Kentucky. A library that borrows this thesis for use by its patrons is expected to secure the signature of each user. Name Date THESIS Lauren Marie Dahl The Graduate School University of Kentucky 2008 USING FORWARD-LOOKING INFRARED RADIOGRAPHY TO ESTIMATE ELK DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTION IN EASTERN KENTUCKY THESIS A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in the College of Agriculture at the University of Kentucky By Lauren M. Dahl Lexington, Kentucky Directors: Dr. John J. Cox and Dr. Michael J. Lacki Lexington, Kentucky 2008 Copyright © Lauren M. Dahl 2008 MASTER’S THESIS RELEASE I authorize the University of Kentucky Libraries to reproduce this thesis in whole or in part for purposes of research. Signed: Lauren Dahl _ Date: 12/19/08 _ To every supportive hand that lent itself when I needed it most. Thanks ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research presented in this thesis would not have been possible without the financial and logistical support of Kentucky Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources, The Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation, The Turner Foundation, United States Department of Agriculture, and the Department of Forestry at the University of Kentucky. I sincerely thank my family for their constant support and encouragement, as they have been my source of stability throughout my ever changing career. I am grateful to my advisors for their dedication to the education of the wildlife biologists of tomorrow. Dr. John Cox has provided me with guidance and direction throughout my tenure at the University of Kentucky, and has supported me through the highs and lows of my research project. He has kept me grounded and diligent till the end. Dr. Dave Maehr, rest his soul, instilled in me a need to broaden my experiences and think critically about every situation in which I become involved. He never allowed me to slide by on “good enough” and constantly challenged me to strive for excellence. My deepest gratitude goes to Dr. Karen Alexy. Her belief in my abilities and encouragement to continue my education brought me to Kentucky to tackle a challenging and rewarding master’s research topic. My committee members, Dr. Mike Lacki and Dr. Songlin Fei, deserve many thanks as their expertise proved invaluable as it strengthened my analysis and my understanding of modeling and scientific thought. While I have made every effort to thank Dr. Joe Duchamp in every correspondence that I have had with him, I would like to continue that trend here. His statistical expertise helped me to condense an overwhelmingly large amount of data into a manageable and interpretable model to estimate Kentucky’s elk population. iii Thank you to my FLIR crew, Will Bowling, John Hast, Dr. Dave Unger and Ben Augustine. These trained professionals gathered an immense amount of quality data and were each a great asset to the project. Each of you has had an immense impact on my experience in Kentucky and on my life. I would also like to thank the multitude of volunteers that assisted this FLIR crew with data collection. I am grateful to the support from everyone at the University of Kentucky’s Robinson Forest. I want to extend my gratitude to the Forestry graduate students, many of whom assisted me with logistics and data collection throughout my project. This group of students not only provided an enriching environment in which to bounce project ideas around, but also provided a source of friendship, relaxation and support which enabled us to hold one another up through our toughest of struggles. To the many residents of the T.P. Cooper building, thank you for making this place a community. Thank you to everyone at the Kentucky Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources that supported this project, especially Tina Brunjes, Keith Wethington, and the entire GIS lab. The support of biologists Dan Crank and Charlie Logsdon has helped me broaden my field experience and understanding of issues involving Kentucky’s elk herd. Thanks, I am indebted to each of you. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements ................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ........................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ......................................................................................................... viii List of Files ............................................................................................................... ix Section 1: Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 Taxonomy and History of Kentucky Elk ............................................................... 1 Elk Population Modeling and Monitoring ............................................................. 3 Section 2: Study Area .............................................................................................. 10 Kentucky Elk Restoration Zone ........................................................................... 11 FLIR Detection Rate Study Site .......................................................................... 11 Section 3: Methods .................................................................................................. 15 FLIR Technology ................................................................................................. 15 FLIR Detection Rate ............................................................................................ 16 FLIR Elk Population Survey ................................................................................ 18 Elk Population Modeling ..................................................................................... 19 Section 4: Results ..................................................................................................... 35 FLIR Detection Rate ............................................................................................ 35 FLIR Elk Population Survey ................................................................................ 35 PCA Analysis ....................................................................................................... 35 Elk Population Modeling ..................................................................................... 36 Distribution
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