Climate Change, Health and COVID-19

Wisconsin Academy of Sciences September 23, 2020

Jonathan Patz, MD, MPH Professor and John P Holton Chair of Health and the Environment Director, Global Health Institute, UW-Madison Faculty appts: Nelson Institute & Dept. Population Health Sciences Photo: NBC News OUTLINE

1. Social and economic causes of the rise of SARS-CoV-2 now causing the COVID-19 pandemic

2. Ecological & environmental causes: human intrusion into, and disruption of nature

3. Preventing an even larger global health emergency: lessons learned from the current pandemic 1) Social and economic causes of the rise of a new virus now causing the COVID-19 pandemic “Wet Markets” and illegal wildlife markets

• Legal wildlife industry in China initiated to provide income to poor peasants in China – but it’s the wealthy who drive this market and consume the products

• Illegal wildlife trading occurs worldwide

• Stacked cages of wildlife in “wet markets” creates unnatural environment for diseases to “spill over” from one species to another We live in a globalized world – a disease outbreak anywhere, can reach people everywhere

Courtesy: Peter Daszak, EcoHealth Alliance 2) Ecological & environmental causes: human intrusion into, and disruption of nature Genes from HIV viruses of other primates (monkeys and chimpanzees) found in infected African bushmeat hunters.

Taylor et al. 2001

A majority of newly emerging diseasesAn in animal that carries diseases that are part of humans are “zoonoses” (come from animals)the virus, bacteria, or parasite’s life cycle are called “Reservoir Hosts”

Courtesy: Prof. Raina Plowright Hendra virus, Australia

Dr. Raina Plowright

Deforestation & Hendra Virus Source: Professor Raina Plowright

Loss of winter nectar resources due to forest destruction causes food-starved bats to

relocate to agricultural and urban landscapes E F I

where they infect horses and horses infect L D

people L I W N A M ON I T HU - C E A F I R L D TE L N I I W NS A M HORSES HORSES AND HU Photo credit : Hume Field Studies in Australia, Bangladesh, Madagascar, and Ghana Land use change

• Biggest cause of disease , 2004 emergence Environmental Health Perspectives • Biggest threat to conservation • Major driver of climate change • Drives economic growth, but also diseases like malaria, ebola, and Hendra virus ...and now SARS-CoV-2

Courtesy: Peter Daszak, EcoHealth Alliance Forest Disturbance in the Amazon

Water Savanna Forest Deforestation Paved Roads Unpaved Roads Fire (1996-99) Fire (2000-02)

Courtesy: Micah Hahn, PhD defense Malaria and Deforestation in the Amazon Forest

Deforestation

Mosquito Biting Rate For every 1% of deforestation, Vittor et al...Patz (2006) the incidence rate (new cases) of malaria increased by 11% Mosquito Larvae Olson...Patz, 2010 Vittor. et al...Patz (2009) Policy on forest conservation might also be considered as ...because we now vividly policy for human health realize our own health is closely linked to the health of ecosystems New rate of deforestation at what risk? Break for discussion 3. Preventing an even larger global health emergency: lessons learned from the current pandemic

Image from ProPublica, Sept. 15, 2020, with data from Xu et al. PNAS, 2020 Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 deaths in the and United States -19 Pandemic Environmental factors: both at the front Average PM concentrations in g/m3 from 2000-2016 in the US back ends of the COVID 2.5 Results: “We found that an increase of 3 just 1 ug/m in PM2.5 is associated with an 8% increase in the COVID-19 death rate.” Wu, et al. NEJM, April, 2020

County level number of COVID-19 deaths per one million population up until April 4, 2020.

Health effects of Urban Heat Island Effect Heat Stress climate change Heart attacks Respiratory Air Pollution & diseases: COPD & Aeroallergens Asthma CLIMATE Malaria Dengue CHANGE Vector-borne Diseases Hantavirus Zika Cholera Water-borne Diseases Cryptosporidiosis Temperature Rise Campylobacter Leptospirosis Sea level Rise Water resources & Malnutrition Hydrologic Extremes Food supply Diarrhea Droughts Toxic Red Tides Floods Forced Migration Mental Health & Overcrowding Fires Environmental Refugees Human Conflicts Patz, 1998 Will people fear the tradeoffs of solving another global crisis? But unlike COVID-19, could combating Climate Change be cost-free? …or even a net gain? , JAMA, 2014

Public Health Reviews, 2016 What could be any “clearer”, comparing today’s air quality with business-as-usual. Air pollution causes 7 million premature deaths every year (WHO).

World renowned Professor Kirk Smith dedicated his career addressing air pollution impacts in the developing world. From COVID-19’s effect of slowing global economy

Map showing estimated mortality rates and PM2.5 pollution from coal-fired power plants in the U.S.

Prehoda & Pearce, 2017. At this time, do we really want to uncork the current fossil fuel economy?

...or get to a clean energy economy where everyone prospers? Greta skips school to sit outside Swedish Parliament 8-28-2018 The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released this new report Oct. 8, 2018

To stabilize at 1.5°C warming, we’ll need to:

Cut emissions from burning fossil fuels (& cutting rainforests) by 45% by the year 2030, and be net carbon-zero by 2050. That’s SOON !!! Cost of cleaner energy: Benefits of cleaner energy:

< $30/ tCO2 $200*/ tCO2

WHICH NUMBER IS BIGGER???

(* Range: $50 to $380) West et al. 2013 For E. Asia, co-benefits are 10 to 70 times greater Evolution of Solar Energy . . .

1977 - $76.67/watt ü THE WHOLESALE PRICE OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) PANELS ($/WATT) HAS DROPPED BY 99% SINCE 1977.

2014 - $0.67/watt

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Solar and wind energy prices dropped 80% and 30%, respectively, in past 7 yrs. Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, is Chair of The Elders and a patron of the International Science Council. Daya Reddy is President of the International Science Council. After all, climate change IS a global health emergency! Conclusion

In the middle of a global pandemic stemming from environmental damages and social inequity, we have the opportunity of a lifetime to seize the moment for transformative change.

THANK YOU @jonathanpatz (Twitter) Photo from: The World We Want: Shaping the Post-2015 Development Framework TEDx (just Google my name & TEDx)