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Poverty, Gender, and Youth Social and Behavioral Research (SBSR)

2012

Is early childhood care and a good investment for ? Estimates of educational impacts, costs, and benefits

Caroline Krafft

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Recommended Citation Krafft, Caroline. 2012. "Is early childhood care and education a good investment for Egypt? Estimates of educational impacts, costs, and benefits," Survey of Young People in Egypt Policy Brief no.3. : Population Council.

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arly Childhood Care and Education (ECCE)— Methods or nursery—is available to only some Egyptian children. Expanding The recommendations in this brief are based on ECCE should be a government priority, as E , a nationally representative survey of ECCE is an excellent investment. ECCE improves a wide variety of educational outcomes, including an analysis of1 the 2009 Survey of Young People in educational attainment, drop out, repetition, test Egypt (SYPE) scores, and tracking into the more prestigious general whether15,000 Egyptian the participant youth aged had 10–29. attended The kindergarten survey has a as opposed to vocational ordetailed nursery. educational The broad section, age rangeincluding encompassed a question on by

Providingeducation. kindergarten Moreover, investing to all Egyptian in ECCE children, will yield and SYPE, and the comprehensive nature of the education particularlyeducational those benefits from that disadvantaged are greater backgrounds, than costs. module, allow for a unique examination of the long- termThe effect benefits of ECCE, of ECCE. however, could not be estimated by simply comparing children with ECCE to those could be an important step toward greater equality, efficiency, and attainment in the education system. problems. First, the data show that children who Key Messages receivewithout. ECCE Such estimates are more are likely likely to to be have from two wealthier serious and more educated families, and therefore would Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE) be more likely to have better educational outcomes regardless of ECCE. This association will lead to • ECCE leads to higher test scores. 2 significantlyECCE increases reduces the probability drop out and of tracking repetition. into of these characteristics occur on the family level, • . thisan overestimate study compares of the siblings effect of within ECCE. a Since family, many one • of whom attended ECCE and one of whom did not, Access to ECCE, such as free government in order to accurately estimate the effect of ECCE. • ,The benefits of shouldECCE are be greaterexpanded than and its should costs. The estimates of ECCE effects are based on a • particularly target the poor.

comparisonThe second problemof 2,478 suchis that siblings. many of the youth in the Why does Early Childhood Care dataset are still in school. They will likely complete and Education matter? additional years of schooling, but it is not possible to observe these future years of schooling in the Early childhood is the focus of many human data. Estimating the impact of ECCE on years of development programs and policies because it is the schooling without accounting for this fact would time when persistent development gaps occur and

toresult model in the underestimating probability of students ECCE’s impact. leaving Survivalschool. earlyinterventions childhood yield interventions the greatest that benefits have been (Heckman proven analysisThe analysis (time-to-event) is also careful methods to not are include therefore children used3 toet al. improve 2006). a Child broad care variety and education of health, are cognitive, two key who never entered school in these comparisons— this would falsely attribute to ECCE the intention to these impacts, ECCE is considered a crucial part of educate children at all. behavioral, and educational outcomes. Because of as an important tool for development and meeting the Millennium Development Goals, as well Early Childhood Care and Education in Egypt reduction (UNESCOcan have 2006). important positive effects, individual programs show a wide variety of impacts Early Childhood Care and Education in Egypt has two While ECCE context(Nores andin which Barnett they 2010). are implemented The quality can of cause early childrenmain forms: aged kindergarten four to six. and There nursery. are Kindergartens teachers and enormouschildhood variation interventions in the andimpact the of country-specificECCE. In Egypt, are one to two years of pre-primary classes for there has been a shortage of evidence on the impact 1 of ECCE. This brief presents new evidence showing fundedSYPE by was multiple conducted donors. in cooperation with the Egyptian that ECCE is an excellent investment for Egypt, with Cabinet’s Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) and the2 causal effect of ECCE on educational outcomes. This is a statistical approach called “fixed effects” that can identify who3 are currently in school. educational benefits alone outweighing costs. These methods account for the “right censoring” of students formal curricula. Kindergartens are under the oversight for individual characteristics, such as gender, that differ kindergartens are government run. The remainder betweenwithin-family siblings. sample. These estimates include controls of the Ministry of Education. Approximately half of 4 individuals. Nurseries are supposed to provide care are run by NGOs, religious schools, employers, or ECCE children in nursery are in fact age four to six because Figure 2: Proportion of youth remaining in school by offor a children shortage under of kindergarten the age of space. four, but Less nearly than 40% a third of 1 0.9 0.8 of nursery services are public, under the Ministry of 0.7 Social Solidarity. The remainder are run by NGOs or are 0.6 0.5 privately provided (UNDP 2008). ECCE 0.4 No ECCE 0.3 Figure 1:60% ECCE attendance by gender and birth cohort Beyond year 0.2 50% 0.1 0 40% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Proportion Remaining in School 30% Year of School

20%

10% As students progress through primary (here counted as

0% in school than their siblings who did not attend ECCE.

Percentage attending ECCE five years), youth with ECCE are more likely to remain 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Year of birth primary to preparatory, from preparatory to secondary, Males Females Total andYouth from with secondary ECCE are to higher more education. likely to continue from Use of nurseries and kindergartens has been increasing The underlying differences in the probability of leaving nursery or kindergarten (ECCE) by gender. Less than during primary and at the end of both primary and over time. Figure 1 shows the trend in children attending preparatoryschool as a result school, of ECCE when are statistically many students significantly leave. Estimates indicate that the probability of leaving school there30% of has children been a genderborn in gap1980 in attendedECCE attendance ECCE. More in Egypt, than at the end of primary and preparatory is more than with50% of males children more born likely in 1999 to attended attend than ECCE. females. Historically, This halved with ECCE. gender gap, like the gender gap in school entry, has been closing over time. The closing gender gap and increasing use of ECCE are promising trends, but many children still remain without ECCE services or with access to only TheAttending changes ECCE in theleads probability to 1.09 additional of leaving years school of school. can be used to calculate how many additional years of school a student achieves if he or she attends ECCE. Earlylow-quality Childhood ECCE (UNDP 2008).Care and school on average. These changes in schooling would Education improves a wide variety haveAttending a dramatic ECCE effect leads on to educational 1.09 additional attainment years in of of educational outcomes attainment for all youth entering school that would ECCE has an impact on a variety of educational outcomes. Egypt. Figure 3 presents the change in educational the number of years of schooling achieved by youth. result from universal ECCE as opposed to no ECCE. With One of the most important is educational attainment— youthECCE, 8.1%would more attain youth a who enter education. school would Likewise, leave school with a secondary education and 4.5% more youthFigure within 2 shows the theschooling proportion system), of youth by whether remaining or not in school beyond the end of each year (the “survival” of the youth attended ECCE (nursery or kindergarten). boththere the would increased be 11.4% educational fewer youth attainment attaining of youth less withthan a ECCE, preparatory and the education. increased Figure educational 3 demonstrates capacity sample of youth in households where at least one sibling attendedThis figure ECCE estimates and at the least effect one of sibling ECCE based did not—the on the For complete details on model specifcation and control variables 4

see Krafft (2011). that will be needed. Additional capacity would be particularly necessary during preparatory and secondary years, with some modest additional Figure 4: Grade repetition by ECCE without ECCE capacity in both primary and university years. 16% with ECCE 14% 12% 10% 8%

Figure10% 3: Changes in attainment with ECCE repeating Secondary 6% 8% 4% 6% University 2% Primary Preparatory 4% Percentage of entering students 0% 2% 13 9 10 12 14 0% 2 -2% 1 3 6 children have to take standardized exams at

Percentage of youth 7 4 -4% Primary theTest endscores of are each quite level important of school in and Egypt their because exam -6% Final attainment: Year or level of school scores determine secondary tracking and access to university. Test scores can also act as an Increased educational attainment and the approximation of cognitive and learning outcomes. commensurate decrease in drop out are not ECCE’s impact on grade repetition, test scores, and tracking Scores are out of 100. The average primary score intoonly higherpotential education. benefits. ECCE Access also to has higher an important education reported by SYPE respondents who did not attend is particularly important because it essentially ECCE is 77.3, and the average preparatory score is determines access to formal government jobs and 70.8. ECCE predicts higher test scores; a significant ability to contribute to modern enterprises and a 1.9 points higher in primary, and a marginally insignificantThe sizable impact 2.2 in ofpreparatory. ECCE on a number of different educational outcomes indicates that expanding knowledge-driven economy. Of the youth entering ECCE would be a powerful strategy for addressing a variety of Egypt’s educational challenges. remaindersecondary attending school, 40.2%vocational are secondary, on the which general is secondary (university-bound) track, with the percentage points the probability that a young person The benefits of Early Childhood willusually track terminal. into general ECCE secondary early in life and increases university. by 7.8 Care and Education are greater Grade repetition is a pervasive problem in Egypt. than its costs Repeating grades is expensive because it means that it takes more time and resources for a child to attain the same level of education. Repetition outcomes, expanding the provision of ECCE has substantialWhile it is clear costs. that As ECCE well asimproves the costs educational of ECCE itself, additional years of schooling create other ofis alsochildren a symptom who did of not low attend educational ECCE but quality did enter and primarypoor learning repeated outcomes. at least one As Figuregrade during 4 shows, primary, 7.6% theycosts. would Youth havewho attendobtained school if they when had they not could been bein did enter preparatory repeated at least one grade in working face opportunity costs: the loss of wages and 14.2% of children who did not attend ECCE but school. This brief includes a cost-benefit analysis preparatory. The within-family estimates indicate costs(CBA) and of ECCE benefits to indicate must be whether discounted the inmonetized order to that attending ECCE significantly decreases primary comparebenefits ofthe ECCE costs outweigh and benefits its costs. of an Ininvestment the CBA, repetition by 3.4 percentage points (almost half) in ECCE with simply allowing the same money to effectand preparatory on secondary repetition repetition. by 3.7 percentage points (about a quarter). ECCE does not have a significant discount rate. accrue interest. This analysis uses a standard 3%

The ratio of benefits to costs for ECCE is 1.31. educational attainment—mediated through higher The CBA solely examines the benefits of increased wages5 can increase educational attainment, improve test are compared over time to the costs of ECCE itself scores, reduce repetition, and improve tracking into (based —and on the decreased costs of repetition. expanding These kindergarten, benefits including capital costs), the costs of additional has expressed its intention of expanding access schooling, and the opportunity cost of lost wages. higher education. While the Egyptian government means that every dollar invested in ECCE will return shouldto early be childhood moved up. education Currently, to 60%Egypt of devotes children a The ratio of benefits to costs for ECCE is 1.31. This disproportionateby the year 2015, share both of this its educational target and timetable spending as that for ECCE, indicate worthwhile investments. to higher education, which is utilized primarily by 1.31 dollars. Benefit-cost ratios greater than 1, such should be shifted to ECCE, which offers substantial the wealthiest . Some of these resources becauseThis cost-benefit it focuses solely analysis on increased is an educational extremely conservative estimate of likely ECCE benefits attainment and decreased repetition. International benefitsThe government to the entire should population. rapidly expand access to free ECCE and should target children from ECCE, including health, nutritional, and behavioral disadvantaged areas. literature suggests a multitude of other benefits from criminality, decreased use of social services improvements (Nores and Barnett 2010), decreased kindergarten and nursery programs to children fromIncreased disadvantaged government backgroundsprovision of free, is high-quality particularly (Reynolds et al. 2011), increased female labor-force participation, and a day-care benefit (World Bank to families that would purchase it anyway is a poor make2010). ECCE Since a thecrucial educational investment. benefits of ECCE more useimportant. of government Providing resources. high-quality Unfortunately, ECCE primarily this is than justify its costs, these additional likely benefits the current situation in Egypt. Current provision of Further expansion of Early kindergartens is such that the poorest governorates also have the lowest kindergarten availability and Childhood Care and Education enrollment. This makes poorer children entering needed school doubly disadvantaged compared with their wealthier peers, due to their poverty, and also due to Egypt is approaching universal primary enrollment, their lack of access to kindergarten and the important getting everyone into school. The next educational challenge is keeping youth in school and ensuring that benefitsCost is a of major ECCE. barrier to private ECCE enrollment, provide bright futures and economic opportunities. Egyptschool years faces deliver steep a challengeshigh-quality in education delivering that thiswill making government provision crucial to providing ECCEand lower in poorer cost programs areas. Targetingare generally ECCE lower expansion quality, based on income or wealth can be administratively type of quality education. The TIMSS (Trends in burdensome; however, since poverty in Egypt is International Mathematics and Science Study) found closely connected to residence and geography, mostin 2007 basic that knowledge on average of whole eighth-grade numbers, decimals, Egyptian geographic targeting offers a costless method for students had quite low achievement, with only the prioritizing kindergarten expansion. Government provision is also important because many of the and basic graphs (UNESCO 2010). High repetition thatrates youthare also attain, symptomatic especially of low-quality higher education, education. is highlyAdditionally, determined the quality by their and backgrounds, quantity of educationespecially likely benefits of ECCE are public benefits, such as their parents’ wealth and education, providing little reduced crime or improved child health. One study opportunity for the majority of Egyptian youth in the United States found that public benefits were four times private benefits such as wages (Reynolds etECCE al. 2011). can make important contributions to the educational success and life opportunities of Egyptian (AssaadThis analysis and Krafft shows 2010). that Early Childhood Care and youth. Investing in ECCE will yield educational

Education can significantly and substantially enhance expanding kindergarten access to all Egyptian the Egyptian educational system. ECCE has long-term youthbenefits would that arebe angreater excellent than policy ECCE costs.for the Therefore, Egyptian benefits5 that extend well beyond . It government to pursue.

Based on estimates in Salehi-Isfahani, Tulani and Assaad 2009. See Krafft 2011 for further details on CBA estimation. References The Social Background and Attitudes of Higher Education Students and Assaad, GraduatesR., and C. Krafft. in Egypt. 2010.

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