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ST Engineering Sin gapore Company Guide ST Engineering Version 12 | Bloomberg: STE SP | Reuters: STEG.SI Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 14 May 2018 BUY Confidence in growth potential Last Traded Price ( 11 May 2018): S$3.39 (STI : 3,570.17) BUY on multiple re-rating drivers ahead. ST Engineering’s (STE) Price Target 12-mth: S$4.10 (21% upside) recent share price retreat ex-final dividend payout is a good buying opportunity for patient investors. We like STE for a Analyst Suvro Sarkar +65 81893144 [email protected] combination of factors: i) award of some of the larger contracts Glenn NG +65 6682 2657 [email protected] that STE is vying for (e.g. US Postal Service vehicle contract and US Marine Corps contract) are expected to be announced in What’s New 2018, providing potential upside catalysts if STE (and partners) • 1Q18 core net profit of US$122m (+23% y-o-y) in line, are chosen; ii) improved visibility from STE’s target to more than double smart city revenues by 2022 and grow other segment STE should be back on growth trajectory in FY18 revenues at 2-3x the global GDP growth rate; iii) Aerospace • Orderbook remains at near peak level at S$13.4bn segment rebound, with margins improving this year on stronger • Aero engine workload seems to be trending higher CFM engine MRO demand, and in the longer-term, sizeable contribution expected from P2F programmes currently in ramp- • Marine margins in FY18 could be weaker as delivery of up phase; iv) expected deliveries of the two problematic ConRo problematic ConRo vessel is pushed back slightly vessels in 2Q/3Q18 which should help shipbuilding turn profitable, though it is slightly delayed than expected. Meanwhile, dividend yield is around 4.5%, which should Price Relative provide support to the stock price. Where we differ: 1Q18 was a quiet quarter with no unexpected contract wins, and earnings are typically seasonally lower as well, which leads to some sell off in the market. But we think STE is at the cusp of a ‘next leg up’ in its growth story while trading at reasonable valuations (just below mean historical P/E), with a 4.5% dividend yield to boot, which makes it attractive. Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (S$m) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F Potential catalyst: Significant order wins, turnaround at US Revenue 6,684 6,619 6,876 7,255 shipbuilding operations, and progress with smart city initiatives. EBITDA 904 857 893 956 Pre-tax Profit 591 623 658 715 Valuation: Net Profit 485 512 530 576 Our TP of S$4.10 is based on a blended valuation framework, Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 535 512 530 576 Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 1.2 (4.4) 3.6 8.7 which factors in both earnings growth and long-term cash- EPS (S cts) 15.5 16.4 17.0 18.5 generative nature of STE’s businesses. EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 17.1 16.4 17.0 18.5 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 0 (4) 4 9 Key Risks to Our View: Diluted EPS (S cts) 15.5 16.4 17.0 18.5 Net DPS (S cts) 15.0 15.0 15.5 16.0 A protracted slowdown in shipbuilding and execution hiccups BV Per Share (S cts) 69.9 71.7 73.7 76.7 at new business segments could derail earnings. Also, lack of PE (X) 21.8 20.7 20.0 18.4 action on the M&A front could lead to inefficient use of PE Pre Ex. (X) 19.8 20.7 20.0 18.4 P/Cash Flow (X) 13.9 13.9 15.5 14.8 balance sheet and lower ROEs in the future. EV/EBITDA (X) 12.0 12.9 12.5 11.7 Net Div Yield (%) 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 At A Glance P/Book Value (X) 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.4 Issued Capital (m shrs) 3,120 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 10,578 / 7,917 ROAE (%) 22.5 23.2 23.4 24.5 Major Shareholders (%) Earnings Rev (%): (2) 1 Temasek Holdings Private Ltd (%) 50.7 Consensus EPS (S cts): 17.7 19.1 Free Float (%) 49.3 Other Broker Recs: B: 14 S: 1 H: 1 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 12.0 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg ICB Industry : Industrials / Aerospace & Defense Finance L.P ed: JS / sa: PY, CS Company Guide ST Engineering WHAT’S NEW 1Q18 core profits in line Core PBT and net profit in line with expectations: Excluding PBT margins generally in line, save for a cyclical low in the c.S$4.8m effect of a realised foreign currency translation Electronics margins. Group PBT margins came in at 9% loss on the dissolving of two US legal entities Dalfort LP and excluding the effect of the Dalfort translation loss. Segment- Dalfort GP, PBT was c.S$149m for the quarter, which was wise, PBT margins were generally in line with our full-year broadly in line with expectations. Reported PBT of S$144m estimates, save for the Electronics segment which saw a was in line with expectations, representing 12% y-o-y growth weaker 1Q18 PBT margin of 8%, though the company has on a restated basis (on adoption of new SFRS(I) rules), and attributed this to seasonality affecting the sales mix, and they accounting for roughly 22% of our full-year net profit expect PBT margin to improve in subsequent quarters with a estimates, which is in line with the usual seasonality. view towards achieving the usual 10% PBT margin for the full Revenues improved 9% y-o-y to S$1,647m. Core net profit year. (similarly excluding the Dalfort translation loss) came in at Engine workload trend looks promising. Management said S$122m, which is almost 23% higher y-o-y, representing that ST Aerospace’s engine shops are experiencing high around 22% of our full-year net profit estimates. utilisation rates, with an uptick in shop visits felt since last Less visibility on sub-segment profit trends for now, owing to year, which has continued into 2018. Problems with the new change in reporting from PBT to net profit. At the more Airbus NEO and Boeing MAX aircraft variants have delayed detailed sub-segment level, ST Engineering seems to have their entry into service, pushing back the retirement of some shifted its reporting focus from profit before tax (PBT) to net older aircraft, which is positive for MRO work in general. profit (PATMI), which makes sub-segment comparison (for Meanwhile heightened checks on the CFM56-7B engines e.g. Aircraft Maintenance & Modification sub-segment within following the Southwest aircraft explosion has boosted the Aerospace segment) in terms of historical trends workload on that front. challenging this quarter. Q-o-q comparisons are also less Orderbook remains robust. Orderbook remained flat q-o-q at meaningful due to the restatement of financials in line with S$13.4bn which is near historical peak levels. Announced SFRS(I) adoption and the lack of restated financials for 4Q17 order wins of S$1.14bn from the Aerospace and Electronics at this point. segments in 1Q18 were in line with previous year’s amounts. Marine segment earnings recovery pushed back on ConRo Net cash balance sheet; higher spend on growth projects delivery delay. While we had previously expected the two (otherwise on dividends) would be positive. Balance sheet problematic ConRo vessels being built by ST Marine’s US remains healthy; M&A or higher dividends would be a shipyard operations to be delivered in 1Q18, thus relieving positive. On the back of strong OCF and minimal capex for the shipbuilding sub-segment of additional provisions, we the quarter, ST Engineering is now back in a net cash position understand the first ConRo vessel is now scheduled for (from 0.05x net gearing in 4Q17). We think higher spending delivery at the end of 2Q18 and the second vessel should be on M&A (at a reasonable price of course) would be positive delivered in 3Q18. To recap, these two vessels were the drag for ROE, otherwise higher dividend payout would be a plus on the Marine segment’s shipbuilding operations; point too. shipbuilding would have been profitable in 1Q18 if not for provisions on the ConRos. Page 2 Company Guide ST Engineering Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (S$m) FY Dec 1Q2017 4Q2017 1Q2018 % chg yoy % chg qoq Revenue 1,539 1,702 1,647 7.0 (3.3) Cost of Goods Sold (1,222) (1,358) (1,321) 8.1 (2.7) Gross Profit 317 344 326 2.7 (5.4) Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (190) (179) (193) 1.4 8.0 Operating Profit 127 166 133 4.7 (19.8) Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - Associates & JV Inc 13.8 13.0 15.4 12.2 18.3 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (3.8) (5.4) (4.5) (19.5) 16.9 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - Pre-tax Profit 137 174 144 5.1 (17.0) Tax (27.0) (1.7) (24.0) (11.4) 1,336.7 Minority Interest (6.5) (3.4) (2.3) 64.2 (31.1) Net Profit 103 168 118 13.8 (30.1) Net profit bef Except. 103 168 118 13.8 (30.1) EBITDA 193 237 203 5.5 (14.3) Margins (%) Gross Margins 20.6 20.2 19.8 Opg Profit Margins 8.3 9.7 8.1 Net Profit Margins 6.7 9.9 7.1 Note: 1Q17 and 4Q17 numbers have not been presented here on restated basis following adoption of SFRS (I) Source of all data: Company, DBS Bank Page 3 Company Guide ST Engineering FY17 revenue breakdown by segment (S$m) CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH 96 637 Critical Factors Conglomerate with diverse interests in defense and commercial 2,535 spheres.
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