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November 27, 2009 February 6, 2011 November 27, 2009 February 6, 2011 This is bne's Eastern Europe equity capital markets weekly newsletter, a list of the top stories in region last week. You can receive the list as a plain text or html email or as a pdf file. Manage your delivery options here: http://businessneweurope.eu/users/subs.php TOP STORY STOCKS 1. AAR seeks to cancel TNK-BP Ltd dividend for 4Q10 2. Alrosa to hold IPO by late 2011 3. Egyptian tensions hit global markets 4. MICEX moves to buy controlling stake in RTS - Russian Central Bank 5. Mordashov ups stake in German TUI tourism group 6. MSCI Index February 2011 Revisions: A Preview 7. MSCI reassess the free float of Norilsk Nickel 8. Rostvertol: Obligatory offer suggests defensive opportunity 9. Russia to launch road show for VTB share sale Feb 7 10. Synergy: Around $300 mln to be raised via SPO 11. Telenor pursues arbitration over pre-emptive rights 12. Ukraine's Agropolis prepares for Warsaw listing in H2 NEWS STOCKS 13. Weekly fund flows: Russia a haven in midst of chaos and uncertainty 14. Bank of Moscow to buy 15% in Sistemaís technology unit RTI Systems 15. Gazprom Neft makes buyout offer to NIS minor holders 16. Koks: A bet on the full range of steelmaking raw materials 17. Oleg Deripaska invests in Glencore 18. Petropavlovsk directors sell shares 19. RBC: Possible Speculative Opportunity, But No Fundamental Story 20. Russia Forum Buzz - Privatization: Charting the Way Forward OTHER NEWS STOCKS 21. Federal Grid Company: Downgrade on price performance 22. Globaltrans and Transcontainer - Apples and oranges 23. Merger of Uralkali and Silvinit: new combined valuation, risks and synergies 24. MRSK Siberia: Additional share placement on the agenda 25. MTS to file indicative offer for stake in cell co NTC 26. Raiffeisen Capital to invest in the 2018 World Cup 27. RBC: Possible speculative opportunity, but no fundamental story 28. Rostelecom board approves deal to buy stake in NTC 29. RusHydro places 1.0bn additional shares via pre-emptive rights 30. Russian businessman Vekselberg ups stake in Akado to 58% 31. Russian Helicopters makes buyout offer to Rostvertol minor hldrs 32. Sberbank acquires 25% stake in Nitol Solar 33. We have upgraded Magnit to Buy on valuation grounds IPO, SPO, ADRs, GDRs, PLACEMENT 34. Alrosa may raise $1.5-$2bn in selling 20% in IPO 35. Avangard studying SPO for some 10% of shares in 2011 36. Koks Group postpones IPO due to market conditions 37. Koks IPO: A bet on the full range of steelmaking raw materials 38. Lisin studies transport IPO 39. Mamut, Vimpelcom settle with former Euroset owners ahead of IPO 40. RTS, Micex plan 2012 IPO BUY BACKS, SHARE ISSUES 41. RusHydro to participate in Irkutsk share issue 42. Russian Helicopters submits mandatory buyout offer to minorities of Rostvertol at RUB2.69/share 43. Shareholders buy 55.8% of Russiaís RusHydro extra share offering 44. Sistema Indian unit to offer extra shares by July 45. Synergy sets price for extra share offering at $44 per share DIVDENDS 46. $14bn on dividends 47. AAR consortium to block TNK-BP dividend payment 48. AvtoVAZ holders recommend not paying dividends for 2010 49. BP says received $1.8bn in 2010 dividends from TNK-BP BANKS shares 50. Russian government may sell 10% stake in VTB via public equity placement EXCHANGES, REGULATIONS 51. MICEX move on RTS to pave way for single Russian exchange KAZAKH STOCKS 52. Central Asia: Spices of the Silk Road - Will the rally continue in 2011? 53. Kazakhstan Chart Book: Some Positive News 54. Kazakhstan: Samruk Kazyna to start IPO’s in March 55. Listing of state-owned assets on KASE to start in March, targeting pension and retail money UKRAINE STOCKS 56. Astarta Holding major shareholders swap shares 57. Avangard plans SPO, US$ 150-170mn in new debt 58. Canada's Black Iron, owner of Ukrainian iron ore assets, plans IPO 59. Few shareholders participating in buyout of MMKI shares 60. SPF approves 105 stakes for privatization this year 61. Stock market regulator may suspend six blue chips from trading 62. Ukraine 2011 Politics Preview: Biting the reform bullet 63. Ukrainian equities: Dematerialization risks immaterial 64. Ukrnafta February 25 AGM could approve UAH 4.89 per share dividend for 2009 65. Ukrnafta proposes more dividends for 2009 66. Ukrnafta's shareholders on February 25 to review distribution of UAH265.45mn profit for 2009 67. Verkhovna Rada revokes squeeze-out clause that threatened stock market liquidity EURASIAN STOCKS 68. Azerbaijan: Bse turnover decreases by 29% in January 69. Azerbaijan: Garant Sigorta to raise authorized capital 70. Azerbaijan: Transactions on BICEX decrease by 44% in January 71. Azerbaijan: “Corporate securities market of Azerbaijan rises 67%, last year” - Rufat Aslanli 72. Max Petroleum to raise US$75m through equity expansion 73. Mongolia: Manas Petroleum to raise US$20-30m in Toronto 74. Mongolia: Silk Road Management Launches Largest Mongolia/Central Asia Equity Index with $100Bn Market Capitalization CE STOCKS 75. Financial watchdog to investigate Petrolinvest share price movements 76. Hungarian government proposed several changes in the de-listing process from BSE 77. Poland enjoys record wave of foreign listings on the WSE 78. Slovenia lender NKBM's opts for listing in Warsaw 79. Volume of assets in mutual funds in Slovakia up 10 pct in 2010 TOP STORY STOCKS 1. AAR seeks to cancel TNK-BP Ltd dividend for 4Q10 Troika Dialog January 31, 2011 Alfa-Access-Renova Group (AAR) has called an extraordinary management meeting at TNK-BP and is seeking to cancel the already announced dividend for 4Q10, the Financial Times reported over the weekend. The final decision may be made by the BoD on February 18, but AAR by itself does not have enough votes to ensure passage, Kommersant says. We note that the issue concerns the dividends of the non-traded parent company jointly owned by AAR and BP, and not the traded TNK-BP Holding. The bulk of the expected 2010 dividend was distributed by TNK-BP Holding via a very generous 9m10 interim payment of about $4.2 bln, and we expect a fairly small dividend (if any) for 4Q10. We believe that AAR is seeking to put pressure on BP in connection with the dispute over the latter's recent partnership with Rosneft. This latest public standoff between the two shareholders could generate uncertainty regarding TNK-BP Holding's share price until a resolution is found. Oleg Maximov 2. Alrosa to hold IPO by late 2011 RIA Novosti February 2, 2011 Alrosa, Russia's state diamond monopoly will be ready to hold an initial public offering by late 2011 for a 20% stake in the company worth up to $2 billion, Alrosa President Fyodor Andreyev said on Wednesday. "The company was valued at between $8 billion-$10 billion. Correspondingly, a 20% stake is worth around $1.5 billion-$2 billion," Andreyev said. The Alrosa supervisory board is to meet on February 22 to set a date for a shareholders' meeting to approve amendments to the company's charter allowing it to hold the IPO. That shareholders' meeting is likely to take place in mid-April, Andreyev said on the sidelines of the Russia 2011 economic forum. A tender may be announced after the meeting to issue mandates to the IPO organizers, Andreyev said. Alrosa could place its shares in Russia or in London, Frankfurt or Singapore, Kommersant business daily said on Wednesday. Alrosa is 51% owned by the Russian government, and 40% by the government of the Russian republic of Yakutia, Siberia. Yakutia's government was allowed to reduce its stake in Alrosa to 25% plus one share, in preparation for the IPO. The capital raised in the offering will be used for the company's development program, including the exploration of the South Yakutian Timir iron ore deposit. The firm plans to spend $8 billion constructing two ore mining and processing plants and a metallurgical complex. 3. Egyptian tensions hit global markets Danske Bank January 31, 2011 The global markets have been hard hit by the escalation of tensions in Egypt and for now uncertainty rules. _ In terms of impact on the global markets going forward we stress that there is a negative scenario as well as a positive one. In a negative scenario tensions spread across the Middle East, which leads to disruptions in oil production and a spike in oil prices. In a positive scenario there is a relatively peaceful transition to a democratic government in Egypt, which would be viewed as rather positive by the markets. We think the positive scenario is more likely than the negative one, but for now uncertainty rules. _ In our view the development in oil prices will be key to the further development in the global financial markets. As Egyptian tensions escalate markets drop On Friday afternoon the global markets started to react strongly to the development in Egypt with US stock markets down 1.5-2% and this morning the global stock market selloff has continued in Asian trading. All the signs of increased risk aversions are there: US treasury yields lower, volatility is rising, stock markets drop, Emerging Markets currencies sharply weaker and commodity prices are rising. Not surprisingly we have seen the largest market reaction in the Middle-Eastern stock markets. Hence, concerns or rather the uncertainty about the wider Middle-Eastern situation has now clearly become a financial issue. Egypt _ uncertainty rules Over the past couple of days the situation in Egypt has become increasingly uncertain and it is very hard to predict what will happen next, but we note a number of important developments over the weekend.
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