REPORT ON ISRAELI SETTLEMENT IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES A Bimonthly Publication of the Foundation for Middle East Peac e Volum e 20 N umber 5 September-October 2010 BARACK OBAMA LOSES THE BATTLE FOR A SETTLEMENT FREEZE By Geoffrey Aronson struction in the West Bank to approxi - sity. In July 2009, however, the limits of mately 2,000. In view of this new con - Obama’s commitment to the freeze were President Barack Obama’s extraordi - struction, the practical value of a reim - revealed when Washington bowed nary diplomatic effort over the last two position of a settlement moratorium before Israel’s continuing settlement years has failed to contain to any signifi - becomes increasingly marginal. expansion in East Jerusalem, notably at cant and lasting degree the expansion of To the extent that there is a substan - the site of the Shepherds Hotel in Israeli settlements in the occupied West tive U.S. diplomatic agenda, it is that Sheikh Jarrah, throwing its demand for Bank and East Jerusalem. Already in its two months of direct talks are all that is a freeze into disarray and underlining first days, the Obama administration required to reach an agreement on the continuing stalemate. From this placed a settlement freeze, then defined where to place the border between Israel point onward, Washington has sought, by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as and a nascent Palestinian state. In view with little consistency or success, to “not some settlements, not outposts, not of the fact that diplomats have failed to “freeze” the freeze debate and focus its natural growth exceptions”—at the cen - draw an agreed border between Israel effort upon the achievement of a largely ter of its diplomatic effort and made it and Palestine for more than more than procedural objective—the establishment the litmus test of Prime Minister Benja- seven decades, and the chasm currently of direct negotiations between Israel and min Netanyahu’s commitment to a two separating the positions of Netanyahu the Palestine Liberation Organization state solution. Washington’s subsequent and Abbas, Washington’s compressed (PLO)—in order to address the core failure to establish meaningful con - timeline appears to be little more than a issues in dispute. straints on settlement expansion was leap of faith. Phase II – Stillborn Direct Talks highlighted by the September 27, 2010 The Obama administration’s actions end of Israel’s ten month inconclusive can be roughly divided into five phases. A September 2009 meeting between settlement moratorium and the official Netanyahu, Abbas, and Obama was Phase I – Settlement Freeze resumption of new construction. The expected to mark the inauguration of a settlement issue nonetheless continues Before assuming office in January new phase in Washington’s Middle East to define the flagging U.S. effort, even 2009, top administration officials had policy. The summit was intended, as the though American officials have con - decided to place a settlement freeze at president himself acknowledged, “to cluded that the focus on settlements was the center of “confidence building” move off the rut that we’re in currently.” obstructing rather than facilitating its measures that would enable progress The leaders met but the overall effort to broader diplomatic agenda. toward an end to Israel’s occupation and initiate direct negotiations was stillborn. The Obama administration is now the creation of an independent Palestin- Phase III – Settlement Moratorium attempting to win from Israel a two ian state at peace with Israel. President month re-imposition of the moratorium Obama seized the policy initiative, In October 2009, Abbas decried his in order to convince PLO chairman declaring in Cairo in June 2009 “the “betrayal” by Washington because of Mahmoud Abbas to resume direct talks, illegitimacy of continued Israeli settle - Obama’s failure to win a complete which stalled when the moratorium ments,” and describing the solution of freeze and declared his intention not to lapsed. In the days since the September the conflict as a “vital national security run for reelection as chairman of the 26 expiration of the moratorium, work interest” of the United States. Palestinian Authority, then scheduled has reportedly begun on close to 500 Obama’s insistent call for a compre - for 2010. On November 25, 2009 new settlement dwellings, increasing the hensive end to continued settlement number of units currently under con - activity was unprecedented in its inten - FREEZE , continued on page 6 TO OUR READERS FOUNDATION FOR MIDDLE EAST PEACE The Obama administration’s efforts to two sides? create a two-state peace between Israel and Perhaps President Obama has decided, Merle Thorpe, Jr. Palestine are in deep trouble. After over a therefore, that if the parties can’t agree Founder year of unsuccessful efforts to win a settle - themselves on a border in the next two (1917–1994) ment freeze and promote real negotiations, months, the U.S. will offer its own propos - Washington is now offering extraordinary als on borders to resolve the issues of settle - Philip C. Wilcox, Jr. strategic benefits to Israel in return for ments and Jerusalem, and on the issues of President what seems to be a trivial two-month mutual security and refugees as well? Geoffrey Aronson renewal of the settlement freeze in the If the U.S. is considering such a bold, Director, Research and hope that this will enable to the parties to unprecedented plan to break the impasse, it Publications, Editor, Report on agree on borders. For example, the U.S. has should be possible to outline a vision of a Israeli Settlement in the Occupied reportedly offered, in exchange, support for two-state peace that would appeal to the Territories a residual IDF presence in the Jordan vital interests of Israelis, Palestinians, Nitzan Goldberger Valley after a peace agreement, and no Americans, and the international commu - Waseem Mardini more demands for freezing settlements. nity, and transform the current dismal poli - Editorial Assistants This is puzzling. But could there be more tics of the region. Together, the U.S., its to U.S. policy than meets the eye? allies, and potential silent majorities of Carmel Lev Perhaps the U.S. now recognizes that Israelis and Palestinians could create a Grace Nagel Interns continued bilateral talks alone—much less coalition to persuade Israeli and Palestinian for only two more months—which have leaders to negotiate peace. Using its long IN MEMORIAM always failed in the past, will likely fail experience and unique relationship with Peter A. Gubser again for well-known reasons: Israel’s dys - Israel, the U.S. could make this happen. (1941–2010) functional politics that exaggerate internal We can still hope. DIRECTORS divisions and encourage extremism; crip - pling Palestinian disunity; and the over - Landrum R. Bolling whelming imbalance of power between the Calvin H. Cobb, Jr. James J. Cromwell Stephen Hartwell THOUSANDS OF UNITS IN SETTLEMENT PIPELINE Richard S.T. Marsh Since 1967, Israel has constructed approximately 50,000 dwelling units in West Richard W. Murphy Bank settlements and a similar number in East Jerusalem. There are currently more Jean C. Newsom than 2,000 units under construction in the former. The following is a breakdown of Gail Pressberg how many planned housing units [on the West Bank] have already passed the vari - William B. Quandt ous stages of authorization needed to allow for construction to begin on the ground: Nicholas A. Veliotes I Planning stage—37,000 housing units: Authorization has been given to the prospective builder by the Supreme Planning Committee in the Civil Administra- The Foundation, a non-profit tion after all of the plans were examined and notice of the construction was publi - I.R.C. 501(c)(3) organization, cized in order to allow time for all opposing parties to voice their objections. These supports peace and security for plans have also received the authorization of the defense minister. Israelis and Palestinians I Authorization stage—11,000 housing units: The prospective builder either through mutual recognition and a negotiated division of received or bought the right to use the plot in question by means of a special historic Palestine. It publishes process for building in the settlements. Now the prospective builder awaits a con - the bi-monthly Report on struction permit from the local authority—a normal process that is followed in Israeli Settlement in the Occupied every local authority inside the Green Line as well—and no authorization by the Territories . defense minister is required at all. Copyright © 2010 I Construction can begin—2,000 housing units: Prospective builders who have received all the necessary construction permits and theoretically can begin to build Sign up to receive the Report immediately with the expiration of the moratorium. Had they put down the foun - by e-mail, to be notified of dations more quickly last year, they would have been allowed to continue construc - events in Washington, D.C., tion during the ten-month moratorium. and more. Visit us at Yediot Aharonot , September 21, 2010 www.fmep.org. 2 O Report on Israeli Settlement September-October 2010 WHAT’S IN A NUMBER Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) counts construc - mits. According to a count conducted by Peace Now using tion starts in settlements by the number of construction per - aerial photos and site visits, approximately 600 new housing mits formally issued but does not conduct surveys on the units were started and another 167 caravans were erected dur - ground, reports Peace Now. According to the CBS, the con - ing the moratorium that ended on September 26, 2010. The struction data does not include caravans, mobile homes, out - settlement moratorium excluded construction that had already post construction, illegal building not registered in Interior begun before the 26th of November 2009.