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Universidad Autónoma De Madrid En El Año 2016 FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES DEPARTAMENTO DE ESTRUCTURA ECONÓMICA Y ECONOMÍA DEL DESARROLLO PROGRAMA DE DOCTORADO EN ECONOMÍA TESIS DOCTORAL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO Y BIENESTAR SOCIAL. ESTIMACIÓN DEL ÍNDICE DE BIENESTAR ECONÓMICO SOSTENIBLE PARA ESPAÑA (1995-2014) TRABAJO DE INVESTIGACIÓN PARA OBTENER EL GRADO DE DOCTOR EN ECONOMÍA DE IGNACIO RODRÍGUEZ RODRÍGUEZ DIRECTORA DE TESIS DRA. GEMMA DURÁN ROMERO Junio 2017 RESUMEN La medición del bienestar y la sostenibilidad es un asunto de gran relevancia social que en los últimos años ha atraído un interés renovado por parte de científicos y políticos. El PIB se ha revelado como una medida muy limitada para la medición de estos objetivos, lo que ha dado lugar a la aparición de numerosas propuestas de medidas alternativas. Existe un fuerte consenso entre los investigadores sociales de que la evaluación del bienestar y la sostenibilidad requiere la consideración de una perspectiva amplia y multidimensional, que incluya los factores sociales y ambientales, además de los económicos, para abordar su complejidad. Una de las medidas alternativas de bienestar económico más conocidas es el Índice de Bienestar Económico Sostenible (IBES). El IBES fue originalmente propuesto en 1989 por Herman Daly y John Cobb Jr. en su libro For the common good (Daly y Cobb, 1993 [1989]). Se trata de un indicador compuesto por alrededor de una veintena de variables de distinta naturaleza que pretende reflejar los distintos aspectos económicos, sociales y ambientales que son relevantes para el bienestar. Una de las principales ventajas que tiene el IBES en relación a otras medidas alternativas es que se calcula en unidades monetarias, por lo que puede ser directamente comparado con el PIB, lo cual lo sitúa en una posición ideal para evaluar el bienestar de un país en relación al comportamiento de su actividad económica. En este trabajo se realizan dos estimaciones del IBES para España en el período que va del año 1995 al año 2014. La primera, denominada “IBES original”, se realiza utilizando la metodología estándar empleada en otros estudios internacionales, defendida por Lawn (2005). En la segunda, denominada “IBES Modificado”, se incorporan los ajustes en los métodos de valoración propuestos por Neumayer (1999; 2000), Dietz y Neumayer (2006) y Bleys (2008). Los resultados de este trabajo muestran que, ya sea mediante la estimación del IBES original o mediante la estimación del IBES Modificado, el bienestar de la población en España se encuentra siempre por debajo de los niveles de PIB per cápita en el período analizado. Esa situación pone de manifiesto que el bienestar es un concepto integral que engloba otras dimensiones, aparte de la económica, y que su complejidad difícilmente llega a ser captada únicamente mediante la observación del comportamiento del PIB per cápita. No obstante, los diferentes resultados alcanzados con las estimaciones realizadas en este trabajo no hacen sino reafirmar la necesidad de avanzar hacia un conjunto de métodos de valoración más robusto, y que gocen de amplio consenso, para aumentar la validez del IBES como una medida adecuada de bienestar económico. En cualquier caso, aunque el IBES actualmente está lejos de ser una medida perfecta de bienestar, como sugieren las diferentes críticas y objeciones que se presentan en este trabajo, sin duda es un indicador mucho más completo que el PIB, el cual nunca fue diseñado para esos propósitos. PALABRAS CLAVES: Índice de Bienestar Económico Sostenible (IBES), Producto Interior Bruto (PIB), Medidas alternativas de bienestar, Sostenibilidad, Calidad de vida. AGRADECIMIENTOS Esta tesis es el resultado de un esfuerzo colectivo, por lo que no hubiera sido posible sin la participación directa e indirecta de varias personas e instituciones, a las que me gustaría expresar mi más sincero agradecimiento. A mi directora, la Dra. Gemma Durán Romero, por haber confiado en mí cuando le presenté el proyecto de investigación y por haberme ayudado y orientado con sus comentarios y sugerencias a culminar este trabajo. A la Facultad de Educación, Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades y al Departamento de Ciencias Sociales de la Universidad de La Frontera, Chile, por haberme concedido un permiso para realizar una estancia de investigación de tres meses en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid en el año 2016. Sumo mi gratitud a mis colegas Álex Boso y Miguel Chávez, quienes tuvieron la generosidad de sustituirme en mis clases durante el primer semestre de 2016, y a Jaime Garrido, Director de la carrera de Sociología, quien me apoyó de distintas formas durante todo el proceso. También a los demás colegas de la línea de Sociología: Ronald Cancino, Gonzalo Díaz, Francisca Fonseca, Mauricio García y Freddy Mora. A todos, gracias por brindarme el espacio institucional y personal necesario para finalizar este trabajo. A mis compañeros y amigos del programa de doctorado en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, con quienes compartí aula y tantos momentos entrañables en Madrid, y posteriormente también en muchos sitios de América Latina. Especialmente a Olga Biosca, Pablo Galaso, Luis Gutiérrez, Myrna Limas, Adrián Rodríguez Miranda y Paulina Sanhueza, con quienes fundé la Red Iberoamericana de Estudios del Desarrollo, y a quienes me une, además, una gran amistad. Gracias, Pablo, por ayudarme a resolver siempre los trámites administrativos en la UAM cuando la distancia me impedía hacerlos personalmente. A Paulina Sanhueza, mi amor, madre de nuestra maravillosa hija Laura, que me conquistó en Madrid y me convenció para venirme a vivir a Chile, donde me ha brindado un hogar feliz lejos de mi tierra natal. Ella es quien más ha sufrido mis desvelos y me ha acompañado y animado en los buenos y malos momentos. Nunca podré agradecerle lo suficiente por haber creado las condiciones propicias para que yo pudiese dedicar tiempo a investigar y a escribir esta tesis. Y, finalmente, a todos mis familiares y amigos, pero muy especialmente a mis padres y a mi hermana, por su permanente apoyo, generosidad, comprensión, paciencia y cariño. A ellos, a mi amigo Guillermo Llobet, que nos dejó prematuramente, a Paulina y a mi hija Laura dedico esta tesis con todo mi afecto. ÍNDICE 1. INTRODUCCIÓN…………………………………………………………..……..7 1.1.- Aproximación al problema de investigación…………………..……........7 1.2.- España como caso de estudio.………………...……………….……......15 1.3.- Preguntas de investigación……………….…...……………….……......18 1.4.- Objetivos y estructura....………………………………………………..20 2. REVISIÓN DE LA LITERATURA…………………………………………….23 2.1.- Primeras medidas de bienestar económico ajustado………..….……….23 2.2.- El Índice de Bienestar Económico Sostenible………………………….25 2.3.- Revisión de los estudios empíricos del IBES-IPG…….…….….………35 2.4.- Críticas realizadas al IBES-IPG………………………..…………….....47 2.5.- Impacto del IBES-IPG en la política…….……………..…………….....60 3. ESTIMACIÓN DEL IBES PARA ESPAÑA…………………………………...63 3.1.- El modelo propuesto para estimar el IBES en España…………………………….……..………………..…………..63 3.2.- Fuentes de información…………..…………………...………………...66 3.3.- Unidad de medida……...…………….………………………………....69 3.4.- Período de análisis……..…………….……………………………….....69 3.5.- El IBES de España por componente……………………………………71 3.5.1.- Consumo personal………….……...…………………………...71 3.5.2.- Distribución del ingreso………..…….…..……..………………73 3.5.3.- Consumo personal ponderado…….……...……………………..76 3.5.4.- Trabajo doméstico no remunerado……….………………...…..79 3.5.5.- Voluntariado…...……………………………………….…..…..89 3.5.6.- Servicio de los bienes de consumo duradero……...………...….98 3.5.7.- Servicio de calles y carreteras……….………..……………….102 3.5.8.- Gasto público en educación superior y salud…….………...…105 3.5.9.- Gasto de los hogares en bienes de consumo duradero….…..…110 3.5.10.- Gasto defensivo de los hogares en educación y salud…….....112 3.5.11.- Gasto defensivo de los hogares en protección ambiental…....114 3.5.12.- Coste de los viajes a y desde el trabajo………………....……116 3.5.13.- Coste de los accidentes automovilísticos…..…….………......124 3.5.14.- Coste del crimen…………………...…..………………….....132 3.5.15.- Coste de la contaminación por ruido………...………………135 3.5.16.- Coste de la contaminación del aire.…...…….…………….....139 3.5.17.- Coste del cambio climático…………………………………..143 3.5.18.- Coste de la pérdida de tierras agrícolas……...………...…….147 3.5.19.- Coste del agotamiento de recursos naturales no renovables……….………….……………………………..........149 3.5.20.- Crecimiento del capital neto…………...………………….....153 3.5.21.- Cambio en la posición internacional neta.…...……..……......156 3.5.22.- Índice de Bienestar Económico Sostenible....……………......159 4. RESULTADOS Y DISCUSIÓN………………………………………….…….163 4.1.- Primera estimación: el IBES original de España…………......……….163 4.2.- Segunda estimación: el IBES Modificado de España…….…………...169 4.3.- Alcances y limitaciones………………………...………….....………..174 4.4.- El factor de la corrupción………………………………….....………..176 4.5.- El efecto de la desigualdad……………………………….......………..178 4.6.- Las implicaciones políticas…………………………….…......……….180 5. CONCLUSIONES……..………………………………………………………..185 BIBLIOGRAFÍA……………..…………………………………………...……….195 ANEXOS…………...…….…...….………………………………………...…...….219 CAPÍTULO 1: INTRODUCCIÓN 7 CAPÍTULO 1 INTRODUCCIÓN 1.1. APROXIMACIÓN AL PROBLEMA DE INVESTIGACIÓN La medición del bienestar y la sostenibilidad es un aspecto fundamental en cualquier sociedad. Está íntimamente ligada a la evaluación del desarrollo sostenible y la calidad de vida de los habitantes de un país. Por lo tanto, no es extraño que en los últimos años haya
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