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The Optimism Bias: a Cognitive Neuroscience Perspective 1 Xjenza Online - Journal of The Malta Chamber of Scientists www.xjenza.org Doi: http://dx.medra.org/10.7423/XJENZA.2014.1.04 Review Article The Optimism Bias: A cognitive neuroscience perspective Claude J. Bajada1 1Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, WC1N 3AR, UK Abstract. The optimism bias is a well-established 2 The Study of the Optimism psychological phenomenon. Its study has implications that are far reaching in fields as diverse as mental Bias health and economic theory. With the emerging field of cognitive neuroscience and the advent of advanced neu- roimaging techniques, it has been possible to investigate the neural basis of the optimism bias and to understand One way for scientists to test the optimism bias in the in which neurological conditions this natural bias fails. laboratory is to ask an individual to predict his chances This review first defines the optimism bias, discusses its of experiencing an event and then following up to see implications and reviews the literature that investigates whether the event transpired. The problem with this its neural basis. Finally some potential pitfalls in approach is that the outcome of an event does not al- experimental design are discussed. ways accurately represent the person's prior chances to attain that outcome; this is especially true when the outcome is a binary one. For example, we know that an Keywords Optimism bias - cognitive neuroscience - individual has an infinitesimally small chance at winning psychology - neural basis. the national lottery. If Peter predicts that he has a 75% chance of winning next week's lottery and then happens to win the lottery, this does not mean that Peter was 1 Introduction actually pessimistic in his prediction. It simply means that he was very lucky, over and above being very opti- Let us assume that John is a very poor student. He has mistic. not studied at all for his upcoming exam and has even While it is extremely difficult to tell whether an indi- sat a practice test which he failed. Despite all of this vidual is being unrealistically optimistic, it is relatively evidence, John believes that his chances of passing the easy to show that, as a group, people are unrealistically upcoming exam are very high. Since his expectation is optimistic (Weinstein, 1980). If it can be shown that better than reality he is being unrealistically optimistic. the majority of people in a group believe that they are John exhibits the optimism bias. This definition causes superior to the majority of other people in that group, a problem for researchers who want to study the opti- then it can be inferred that some of these people are un- mism bias. The experimenter cannot possibly have ac- realistically optimistic (Sharot et al., 2012; Weinstein, cess to all of the variables that will affect John's exam 1980). For example, (Svenson, 1981) showed that 88 result. Hence, it is virtually impossible for an experi- percent of US drivers believe that they are safer drivers menter to accurately quantify an individual's probabil- than the median driver. People were also shown to think ity of experiencing a particular event (Weinstein, 1980). that they were more likely than their colleagues to like their post-graduate job or to own their own home. At the same time participants thought that they were less likely than their colleagues to have a drinking problem Correspondence to: C. Bajada ([email protected] or to attempt suicide (Weinstein, 1980). People also re- -ster.ac.uk) main unrealistically optimistic about their own futures c 2014 Xjenza Online despite clear evidence that they should not be. The Optimism Bias: A cognitive neuroscience perspective 34 3 Psychological Mechanisms Un- and goes out; Max is pessimistic and stays in. Which one is better off? In this case Peter got eaten by the derlying the Optimism Bias Lion, but if Max never leaves the cave he will starve to death. (McKay and Dennett, 2009) argue that although Classical theories of learning suggest that if a person is misbeliefs in general are maladaptive for an organism, given accurate information that contradicts their belief, positive false beliefs, such as the optimism bias, are gen- then that person should subsequently update their ex- erally adaptive. In fact, there is an increasing amount pectations in a Bayesian manner (Pearce and Hall, 1980; of studies showing that people who exhibit moderate Sharot, 2011). In a study set up by (Sharot, 2011), it levels of unrealistic optimism are better off than coun- was found that healthy individuals update their expec- terparts who have no bias, a pessimistic bias or an exces- tations in an asymmetrical way. If participants were sively optimistic bias (Friedman et al., 1995; Puri and given news that exceeded their expectations, they up- Robinson, 2007). For example, optimistic individuals dated their future expectations according to the classical are more likely to comply with medical treatment and learning theory. However, if the news was worse than attend follow-up appointments (Friedman et al., 1995; they expected they updated their future expectations Scheier et al., 1989). (Varki, 2009) takes an extreme slightly, but this did not reflect the extent of the news point of view and proposed that optimism is not only (cf. Eli and Rao 2011). An illustrative example given useful but is indeed essential for human beings to func- in the paper was that if a participant expected that his tion properly and survive. He states that with the abil- chances of getting cancer was 40% and was told that his ity to prospect comes the knowledge that death awaits actual likelihood was 30% then subsequently, the partic- each and every one of us. He proposes that without an ipant would probably decrease his expectations of cancer unrealistically optimistic outlook on life humans would to about 31%. If, on the other hand he estimated his be overcome by great fear that would essentially ren- likelihood of getting cancer at 10% but was told that der us extinct. Hence, the optimism bias is adaptive the true likelihood was 30%, he would subsequently not and likely to have been evolutionarily preserved for two update his expectation to 30% but perhaps update it to crucial reasons. First, despite being inaccurate in their about 14%. Evidence also shows that both younger and predictions of future events, optimistic individuals are older individuals exhibit a greater asymmetry in belief more likely to be motivated to improve their wellbeing. updating. Hence, children and elderly individuals tend For example, if an individual thinks they are less likely to have problems learning from bad news (Chowdhury than the average person to contract disease X they may et al., 2013; Moutsiana et al., 2013). actively find ways to ensure that they do not, thus the There is a group of individuals that do not show this prediction becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Second, bias. (Strunk et al., 2006) showed that dysphoric, or they are less likely to be overwhelmed by an existential- mildly depressed, individuals do not show any bias (op- ist crisis that could lead to suicide. The increase in the timistic or pessimistic). It is important to note that optimism bias in elderly individuals may be a mecha- this does not necessarily mean that a dysphoric indi- nism for elderly individuals to cope with the increasing vidual is always realistic, but that on average any biases health problems that arise in old age (Chowdhury et al., they have cancel each other out. The authors also found 2013). that as a person becomes more depressed they are more Although moderate unrealistic optimism can indeed likely to show a pessimistic bias. be adaptive, excessive optimism has, on the other hand, As a result, experimenters have argued that healthy been shown to be maladaptive. Collective unrealistic op- individuals have a tendency to be optimistically biased. timism has been, in part, blamed for some of the greatest This is in line with animal experiments that showed economic follies of our time such as the economic bub- healthy, well treated animals to be optimistically biased bles (and their inevitable crash) (Johnson and Fowler, whereas animals in poor environmental condition did 2011). While moderate optimists are generally selective not show the bias (Matheson et al., 2008). Traditionally, risk takers and make relatively good economic decisions, psychologists have maintained that a realistic outlook on extreme optimists tend to make decisions that are gen- life is the hallmark of mental health and wellbeing (Tay- erally considered to be unsound (Puri and Robinson, lor and Brown, 1988). (Lazarus, 1983) started question- 2007). In fact, the increase in optimism in older age may ing this fundamental tenant of mental health. One could be a double edged sword since although the higher op- imagine a scenario were two cavemen, Peter and Max, timism allows the elderly to cope with increasing health are sitting in their cave and hear a rustle outside. This problems, it may also lead them to make poor financial same sound could represent food, a little edible squirrel, decisions (Chowdhury et al., 2013). or alternatively it could be a predator, the soft rustle of a lion's paws over leaves. In most situations it is a squirrel but occasionally it is a lion. Peter is optimistic http://dx.medra.org/10.7423/XJENZA.2014.1.04 www.xjenza.org The Optimism Bias: A cognitive neuroscience perspective 35 4 The Neural Basis of the Opti- domains of neuroscience, where it was shown that these areas are associated with behavioural and reality moni- mism Bias toring (Brunamonti et al., 2014; Sugimori et al., 2014). The next important step was to identify whether any If this bias is found in most healthy individuals and has of these regions are necessary for the optimism bias to been evolutionarily selected for, then it is reasonable to be present.
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