CUMBRIA LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

KEY FINDINGS FOR

NOVEMBER 2010

Professor Frank Peck Ginny Murphy Dr Gail Mulvey Stuart Frank Centre for Regional Economic Development Intelligence Observatory Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010

Introduction

Recent legislation contained within the Local Democracy, Economic Development and Construction Bill placed a statutory duty on local authorities to undertake a Local Economic Assessment (LEA) from April 2010.

The aim of LEAs is to equip local authorities and partners with a common understanding of local economic conditions and economic geography and of the social and environmental factors that impact on economic growth. This assessment should provide both a tool and an evidence base to help target and prioritise limited resources and interventions in order to stimulate economic growth and recovery in Cumbria, particularly in the austere years of limited public funding to come. It will also help contribute to the development of Cumbria’s Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP).

This document is part of a suite of documents which together comprise the Cumbria Local Economic Assessment and which arose out of a series of consultation events held across Cumbria. The report is therefore best read in conjunction with the similar reports for Barrow, Carlisle and Eden & South Lakeland and the overarching Cumbria-wide report, which all follow a similar structure. This report uses data from the comprehensive Cumbria Local Economic Assessment Data Analysis Report which can be downloaded at http://www.cumbriaobservatory.org.uk/AboutCumbria/economy/cumbriaeconomicassessment.asp and which will be updated on a quarterly basis so that it is always kept up to date with the most recent data releases.

The ultimate test of the LEA will be its appropriate use by a range of different organisations. The Cumbria LEA has a potentially large audience of people interested in the field of economic intelligence, from businesses making investment decisions, through commissioners of skills provision to practitioners drafting local policies and strategies. For this reason the document has been structured as in the diagram below. This structure provides different points of access at differing degrees of detail and it is hoped that this will make Cumbria’s LEA as accessible as possible to the wide variety of people who may be interested in its content.

Structure of Cumbria’s Local Economic Assessment

Cumbria Summary

Eden & South Barrow Carlisle West Cumbria Lakeland Key Findings Key Findings Key Findings Key Findings

Data Analysis Report

People & Communities / Business & Enterprise / Physical Environment & Infrastructure

Carlisle Key Findings 1 Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010

CONTEXT

Carlisle is an historic regional city and service centre

The is a free-standing city situated in North Cumbria close to the Scottish Border. The origins of the city date back at least to the Roman period due to its position close to Hadrian’s Wall. Its Norman Cathedral and Castle testify to its historic military and civic significance in the Middle Ages. It is the largest settlement in the County and the focus of much of the administration of the area as well as an important employment and retail centre that serves north Cumbria and south-west Scotland.

…. with an important industrial base

The period of the Industrial Revolution transformed Carlisle into an expanding industrial city based on textile manufacturing, food processing, engineering and economic activities associated with the development of the railways. Although employment in these manufacturing industries has declined during the 20th century, Carlisle still has a significant industrial base that includes Pirelli Tyres, Crown Holdings (former Metal Box), Nestle and United Biscuits (formerly Carr’s). The city is also a major transport centre located on the West Coast Main Line and close to the M6 motorway. The city hosts the headquarters of the Stobart Group, a multimodal logistics company which has operations in all regions of the UK and across Europe.

.… situated within an extensive rural area

Carlisle Local Authority District includes not only the city itself, but also an extensive and attractive rural area and the market towns of Brampton, Dalston and Longtown. The rural area stretches from the Solway Estuary in the west to the Pennines in the East and north towards the Scottish border and the Cheviots. This extensive territory contains two Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (Solway and Pennine AONBs) and the western part of Hadrian’s Wall which is designated as a World Heritage Site by UNESCo.

PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

Carlisle has experienced population growth since 1991

Most recent figures indicate that Carlisle District currently has a population of around 105,800 (2009) and that this total has grown by 3.9% since 2001, a net increase of around 3,900 persons. This rate of growth has been significantly higher than the average for Cumbria (+1.5%) and also the NW regional average (+1.8%). The proportion of people of working age in Carlisle is relatively high (61.3% in 2009) compared to Cumbria as a whole (59.0%) and much closer to the NW regional average (61.5%). This proportion expanded annually between 2001 and 2006 reaching a peak in that year at 62.1%, but has fallen since then to its present level.

.... as well as growth in employment

The period between 2000 and 2008 also witnessed growth in employment by 1.7% which was more rapid than the NW region as a whole (1.0%). In 2008, there were over 53,000 employees working in the District with particular concentrations in public services, retailing, consumer services as well as manufacturing, construction and transport.

Carlisle Key Findings 2 Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010

However, average earnings are below the regional average

While Carlisle’s employment performance has been strong, data on average workplace earnings shows that the city’s residents experience below average pay for full time employment. In 2009, weekly resident earnings for full time workers in Carlisle averaged £414 compared to £465 for Cumbria as a whole and £460 for the NW region. There is also a substantial difference between average earnings for males (£452) and females (£357) in full time employment.

Levels of unemployment are lower than Cumbrian and regional averages

Since 2008, residents of Carlisle have been affected by the economic downturn but data suggest that, until now at least, these effects have not been as severe as in other parts of the UK. The unemployment rate in Carlisle (JSA Claimant rate) increased in line with national and regional trends in the first part of 2009 but reached a plateau just over 3 % and has since fallen to around 2.8% in August 2010. This compares favourably with the current regional (4%) and national averages (3.6%).

… but there are high levels of worklessness in some urban wards

As in the national context, the numbers of people on Job Seekers Allowance in Carlisle (1,880 in September 2010) represents only a small proportion of the total number claiming some form of out-of-work benefit (8,240 claimants in February 2010) which represents 12.2% of the working age population in the District. This measure indicates that the level of “worklessness” is slightly higher in Carlisle than in Cumbria as a whole (11.5%) but lower than across the wider NW region (15.7%). However, workless households tend to be concentrated in particular residential areas. Worklessness remain particularly high in Upperby and Botcherby Wards where there are 1,590 out-of-work benefit claimants which represents over a fifth of the working age population.

… and disadvantages in rural areas arising from poor access to services

While worklessness is particular prevalent in these urban wards, a minority of residents in the market towns and rural areas are also affected. In these outlying areas, individuals seeking work also experience the added disadvantages that arise from relatively poor access to services including education and training opportunities. Data from the Index of Deprivation 2007 shows that some rural settlements within Lyne ward (covering the area north of Carlisle towards the Scottish Border) are amongst the most deprived areas in in terms of geographical barriers to services.

Educational standards are below the regional average

Addressing worklessness and improving residents’ prospects in the labour market clearly depends to a large extent on raising standards of education and training. Recent data on educational standards and qualifications, however, present a mixed picture. The proportion of pupils achieving five grades A* to C at GCSE was higher in Carlisle (68.6%) compared to Cumbria (66.7%) but below the NW average (70.9%). In the same year, average A level performance compared unfavourably with other areas across a range of different indicators. For example, pupils achieving two or more passes at A level represented 89% of the total in Carlisle compared to 95% in Cumbria and 94.8% in the NW region.

Carlisle Key Findings 3 Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010

…. but vary considerably between areas

These averages, however, mask considerable variation in educational attainment within Carlisle. In some urban wards to the south of the city centre, (Botcherby, Upperby, Currock) the proportion of pupils achieving five grades A to C at GCSE in 2009 was below 50% while in other areas to the east and north, the figure is over 85% (Great Corby and Geltsdale, Wetherall, Stanix Urban).

….and high level qualifications are less prevalent in the working population

The proportion of working age population qualified to NVQ4+ in Carlisle (21.3%) is also lower than the average for Cumbria (25.6%) and the NW region (27%). Attempts to address this issue have focused on the founding of the University of Cumbria in 2008. In 2010, around 1,700 new students enrolled on full time courses in Carlisle bringing the total (including returning students) to 5,100. There were also around 900 enrolments on various part-time programmes of varying duration.

BUSINESS AND ENTERPRISE

Most recent available data demonstrates that Carlisle acts as an important centre for the provision of public and private services to the sub-region as well as the production and distribution of manufactured goods. The city also has an important visitor economy. In 2008, there were over 53,000 employees working in the District with particular concentrations in public services (health education public administration) which accounted for 14,600 or 27% of the total. Another 14,300 were employed in retailing, hotels and catering while manufacturing, construction and transport accounted for a further 14,100 jobs.

Recent growth has been concentrated in public and private services

This static picture in 2008 hides significant variation in patterns of change over time. Total employment increased in Carlisle between 2003 and 2008 by 1.7%. This was comparable with the average for Cumbria (+1.9%), higher than the NW region as whole (+1.0%) but well below the national average (+3.8%). The sectoral composition of this growth suggests that it was driven by activities associated with Carlisle’s role as a regional service centre. Growth was particularly prominent in public services (public administration, health and education, net increase of 1,500 jobs) and business services (1,400), Employment in the wholesale and retail sector expanded in the first half of the decade (over 12,000 in 2005) but had fallen back just below 11,000 by 2008.

.... and there has been modest growth in the visitor economy

Carlisle has a diverse visitor economy consisting of accommodation providers, catering, leisure activities and attractions of national and international significance (Carlisle Castle, Carlisle Cathedral, Hadrian’s Wall, Tullie House Museum). Latest data shows that there were 2.3m visitors to Carlisle in 2008 generating an estimated £120m in business revenue. Analysis also indicates that this revenue supports around 2,100 jobs (FTEs) in the District. The number of visitors and level of expenditure increased in the period 2000-2008 though less rapidly than the Cumbrian average. Employment in hotels and restaurants, however, remained fairly static throughout the period at around 3,400.

Carlisle Key Findings 4 Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010

However, employment in the manufacturing sector has continued to decline

By comparison, the city’s manufacturing base experienced a net loss of over 2,000 jobs in this same time period (-25%). Since 2008, announcements of redundancies in textiles and packaging as well as cutbacks at Pirelli and Metal Box would suggest that downward pressure on employment in manufacturing has continued through 2009-10. At least up to 2008, however, these losses were partially offset by net job increases in the transport industry (+300) and construction (+800).

The rate of new firm formation in Carlisle is comparatively low

The rate of new registrations for VAT or PAYE gives one indication of the level of new firm formation. Using latest data, there were 355 new registrations in Carlisle in 2008. Expressed as a ratio per 10,000 population, the “birth rate” in Carlisle (41.3) is significantly lower than the rate for Cumbria (47.7), the NW region (49.6) and the England average (57.2). In the same year, however, there were 385 de-registrations (interpreted as business “deaths”). The death rate in Carlisle (44.8) was broadly similar to figures for Cumbria (46.2), the NW region (41.5) and England (46.2).

.… but rates of business survival are above the UK average

VAT /PAYE data can also be used to measure rates of business survival. The three year survival rate for Carlisle (businesses listed in 2005 that are still registered in 2008) was 68.8% which was lower than Cumbria in general (71.8%) but significantly higher than the national average (64.6%). Findings from the 2010 Cumbria Employers Survey tend to confirm the widespread impact of the economic downturn across all businesses sectors during 2009-10. One third of Carlisle respondents reported tightened profit margins in 2010 compared to 2009, although encouragingly only 18% reported lower employment levels.

PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT

The urban area of Carlisle focuses on an attractive historic core and city centre

A distinctive characteristic of the District of Carlisle concerns the range of different natural and built environments. The urban area of Carlisle itself focuses on an historic core that displays prominently the Norman Castle and Cathedral as well as Tullie House Museum. The adjacent central retailing area focuses on the development of the Lanes Shopping Centre and the pedestrianised Market Place which retains many of its historic features including the old Town Hall. Surrounding areas consist largely of terraced housing that pre-date 1919 some of which has been converted to business use. The inter-war period saw significant physical expansion of the built up area including local authority housing development in South Carlisle. A further period of expansion occurred in the 1960s including housing developments and construction of industrial estates to provide sites for diversified industrial employers.

.... and the surrounding rural areas contain distinctive landscapes and settlements

Carlisle District also covers an extensive rural area including the market towns of Brampton, Dalston and Longtown. These towns and villages surrounding Carlisle have a distinctive character and provide a range of different environments for residents many of whom commute to work in Carlisle. The rural area also contains two Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty

Carlisle Key Findings 5 Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010

(AONBs). The west of the District includes part of the Solway Coast AONB stretching from Rockliffe to Burgh-by-Sands. The area is of international importance for bird life and habitats including sand dunes, salt marsh and mud flats. To the east, the landscape of the North Pennines AONB is remarkable for its dramatic moorlands, dales and stone-built villages.

There has been significant growth in numbers of dwellings since 2001

In 2008, there were 48,682 dwellings in Carlisle. Reflecting in part recent population growth, the number of dwellings has grown by 5.9% between 2001 and 2008, a net increase of over 2,700 dwellings. In 2008, around 14 % of the total is accounted for by Registered Social Landlord (RSL) stock which was transferred from Local Authority control in December 2002. Since transfer, the stock of RSL dwellings has fallen from 8,519 in 2003 to 7,167 in 2008. Part of this is accounted for by selected demolition of properties on the Raffles estate and elsewhere but most is accounted for by Right to Buy sales.

While quality has generally improved, there is a residual amount of poor housing

Changes in house prices suggest that the housing market in Carlisle was fairly buoyant at least up to 2008. However, other sources indicate that a residual amount of housing is subject to low desirability. In 2008-9, for instance, there were 1,700 vacant dwellings in Carlisle, most of which (1,488) were in the private sector. Of this total, 1,098 (64%) had been empty for at least six months. These vacant dwellings represented 3.5 % of the total stock compared to the average for Cumbria of 3.3%. The Decent Homes survey for 2008-9 also shows that there were 4,150 dwellings (8.5%) in the private sector in Carlisle classed as hazardous (category 1 – long-term chronic health risks).

Carlisle lies on a transport intersection which offers some locational advantages

Carlisle has good inter-regional road transport links via the M6 motorway which connects the city to the Glasgow conurbation to the north and cities of the North West and Midlands to the south. The city is also a key station on the West Coast Main Line with over 1.4m passenger entries and exits in 2007-8. Road links to West Cumbria and east to Newcastle are less effective. However, connections to Newcastle via the A69 have been improved recently by completion of the Haydon Bridge by-pass in Northumberland. Construction of the Carlisle Northern Development Route has also commenced which will act as a Western Bypass for Carlisle and provide a direct link to and from West Cumbria via the A595 to the M6 motorway. It is anticipated that this will ease traffic congestion in Carlisle City Centre.

Carlisle also has a significant amount of land available for employment

Latest estimates indicate that Carlisle has 88.8 hectares of employment land available. This includes a regionally significant area of employment land at Kingmoor Park situated close to the M6 to the north of the city. Recent research by DTZ, however, indicates that there are gaps in provision of land and premises related to geography, quality and product types. There is a critical relationship between improvements in transport infrastructure and the availability of employment land. Carlisle benefits from three M6 motorway junctions at Carleton (J42), Rosehill (J43) and Kingstown (J44). There are also new opportunities to create employment sites associated with the construction of the Northern Development Route to the west of the City and redevelopment of Carlisle Airport to the east of the motorway.

Carlisle Key Findings 6 Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010

Summary Table

STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES

People and communities There has been significant recent growth in But average earnings are relatively low population and aggregate employment Average levels of unemployment and But there are geographical concentrations of measures of worklessness are relatively low worklessness in some urban wards Average educational standards are But achievements are very low in urban comparable with the average for the NW wards where worklessness in also prevalent region The University of Cumbria attracts students but high level qualifications are still less to Carlisle prevalent in the population as a whole Business and Enterprise There was growth in employment up to But these sectors are now very vulnerable to 2008 in public services, business services, current changes in the economy transport and construction Carlisle has many urban and rural tourism But growth has not been as high as in other assets and visitor numbers/levels of spend areas of Cumbria and employment in hotels have grown since 2001 and restaurants has been fairly static Businesses in Carlisle show higher survival But the rate of new business starts is rates compared to UK averages relatively low Physical Infrastructure and environment Carlisle has an attractive urban core for But recent trends indicate a fall in shopping and leisure activities and an historic employment in retailing and wholesale quarter activities since 2005 There has been significant growth in the There is a residual amount of housing stock number of dwellings in Carlisle in the private sector of poor quality Carlisle’s rural areas contain outstanding But some rural settlements experience poor natural landscapes and attractive market access to services towns and dispersed settlements But east-west routes need further Carlisle has good road and rail improvement and there are gaps in supply of communications and a plentiful supply of land in terms of geography, quality and employment land product type

Carlisle Key Findings 7

For further information, please contact:

Ginny Murphy Research Officer Economic Development Lonsdale Building The Courts Carlisle CA3 8NA Cumbria County Council Tel: 01228 226753 Email: [email protected] Web: www.cumbriaobservatory.org.uk