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APA DOC No. 1654.Pdf ALASKA U.s. D FERC/DEIS-0038 ~~ /425 ,-- /"~ '::::J~-E , (/ pLr::rL VlO, t~5~ FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION OFFICE OF ELECTRIC POWER REGULATION ARLIS Alaska Resources DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT Library & Information Services Anchorage, Alaska SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FERC NO. 7114 - ALASKA Volume 2. AppendixA. Load Growth Forecast: The Alaska Power Authority Forecasts Appendix B. Future Energy Resources . Appendix C. Energy Conservation Appendix D. 345-kV Transmission Line Electrical Environmental Effects Applicant: Alaska Power Authority 333 West 4th Avenue Suite 31 Anchorage, Alaska 99501 I Additional copies of the Draft-EIS may be ordered from: Division of Public Information Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 825 North Capitol St., NE. Washington, D.C. 20426 May 1984 ~ ; ; i '" CONTENTS ',' Page APPENDIX A. LOAD GROWTH FORECAST: THE ALASKA ~OWER AUTHORITY FORECASTS , A.l METHODOLOGY. , .... .. ~.. ' A-3 A.2 LOAD PROJECTION ',1' .. A-4 A.3 WORLD OIL PRICE , ...... .. " A-4 A.3.1 Some Current Views ...... .. ... A-4 A.3.2 Masking Effect of Inventory Changes. A-5 A.3.3 Some Recent Trends and Their Meaning .' A-5 A.3.4 APA Oil Price and Load Projection . A-6 A. 3. 5 FERC Projections ... .. A-13 REFERENCES ................ A-17 APPENDIX B. FUTURE ENERGY RESOURCES y B.1 INTRODUCTION ....... .. B-3 B.2 PETROLEUM FUELS. ..... .. B-3 B. J NATURAL GAS ........ .. B-3 B.3.1 Reserves/Resources .. • B-3 B.3.2 Pricing of Natural Gas . .. 8-4 B.3.3 Future Price of Natural Gas. ................ ... B-5 B.3.3.1 Completion of the ANGTS ................... B-5 B.3.3.2 Completion of Gas Pipelihe to Alaskan Gulf and Construction of LNG Export Facilities. .................. B-6 B.3.3.3 Construction of Facilities to Export Additional Volumes of Cook Inlet Gas ................... B-6 B.3.3.4 No Additional Facilities for Export of Cook Inlet Gas B-6 B.3.3.5 Future Gas Prices B-7 B.4 COAL ...... B-7 B.5 PEAT ...... B-B B.6 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY. B-B B.7 TIDAL POWER. .. B-B B.B SOLAR ENERGY .. B-8 REFERENCES ...... B-9 APPENDIX C. ENERGY CONSERVATION C.l ENERGY CONSERVATION AND THE NATIONAL ENERGY ACT OF 1978 ........... .. C-3 C.2 CONSERVATION OF OIL AND NATURAL GAS--THE POWERPLANT AND INDUSTRIAL FUEL USE ACT OF 197B ............................ .. C-3 C.3 THE PUBLIC UTILITY REGULATORY POLICIES ACT OF 1978--RATE DESIGN, LOAD MANAGEMENT, AND REDUCTION OF THE GROWTH RATES IN THE DEMAND FOR ELECTRIC POWER C-4 C.4 RATE DESIGN AND LOAD MANAGEMENT--THE NARUC RESOLUTION NO.9 STUDY. ..... .. C-4 APPENDIX D. 345-kV TRANSMISSION LINE ELECTRICAL ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS D.l INTRODUCTION .... D-3 D.2 OZONE PRODUCTION ...... D-6 D.3 AUDIBLE NOISE ........ D-B D.4 RADIO NOISE. ........ D-10 D.5 ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC FIELDS D-19 D.5.1 Electric Fields D-19 D.5.2 Magnetic Fields D-21 D.6 ELECTRICAL SAFETY. D-22 REFERENCES ....... D-23 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page COVER PHOTO: Artist1s Rendition of the Proposed Watana Dam and Reservoir APPENDIX A. LOAD GROWTH FORECAST: THE ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FORECASTS A-I Projected World Oil Prices .................... A-7 A-2 Price of Oil Under Various Forecasts ............... A-7 A-3 Alternative APA Load Projections for 1983-2010 ........ .. A-12 A-4 FERC Staff Load Projections and Selected APA Load Projections--1983-2010 A-16 APPENDIX D. 345-kV TRANSMISSION LINE ELECTRICAL EFFECTS D-l Susitna Project 345-kV Transmission System ................. D-4 D-2 Typical Tangent or Light-Angle Structure Placement Along Knik Arm-Gold Creek Section of Anchorage-Fairbanks 345-kV Transmission Corridor. ........ 0.-5 v .. LIST OF TABLES Table Page APPENDIX A. LOAD GROWTH FORECAST: . THE ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FORECASTS A-I APA's Reference Case World Oil Price Scenario . A-8 A-2 APA's Reference Case Railbelt Load Projection, 1983-2010 A-a A-3 APA's DRI "Base Case" World Oil Price Scenario, 1983-2005 A-9 A-4 APA's DRI "Base Case" Railbelt Load Projection, 1983-2010 A-:9 A-5 Implicit World Oil Price Scenario for·DOR Mean Projection A-I0 A-6 APA's DDR Mean Case Railbelt Load Projection, 1983-2010 ... A-I0 A-7 World Oil Price Scenario Implicit in DOR's 30% Case Projection A-l1 A-8 APA's OOR 30% Case Railbelt Load Projection, 1983-2010 .... A-l1 A-9 APA's Load Projections Relative to the Reference Case Forecast A-12 A-I0 Annual Load Growth Implied by APA Forecasts . A-13 A-II Railbelt Load Forecast, FERC High World Oil Price Scenario, 1983-2022 . A-14 A-12 Railbelt Load Forecast, FERC Medium World Oil Price Scenario, 1983-2022 A-14 A-13 Railbelt Load Forecasts of the Last Decade . A-17 A-14 Average Annual Expenditures for Electricity per Residential Household in the Railbelt . A-17 APPENDIX D. 345-kV TRANSMISSION LINE ELECTRICAL EFFECTS D-l Noise Levels of Typical Noise Sources . D-9 D-2 Calculated Audible Noise Levels for the Anchorage-Fairbanks Corridor with Three 345-kV Lines on a Common Right-of-Way Operating at 362.5 kV ... _ . D-I0 D-3 Summary of Noise Levels Identified by USEPA as Requisite to Protect Public ( Health and Welfa~e with an Adequate Margin of Safety . D-l1 D-4 Summary of Human Effects for Outdoor Day-Night Average Sound-Level of' 55 dB(A) . D-12 D-5 Audible Noise Complaint Guidelines Developed by Bonneville Power Administration . D-12 D-6 AM Radio Stations Received During Preconstruction Survey of Anchorage-Fairbanks Transmission Corridor between Willow and Healy, July 1981 . D-14 D-7 Existing Quality of Reception for AM Radio Stations . 0-14 D-8 Calculated Transmission Line Radio Frequency Noise Levels . D-16 D-9 Zones of Infl uence of Radi 0 Frequency Noi se ............. D-17 0-10 TV Stations Received During Preconstruction Survey of Corridor Route, July 1981 .............................. D-18 0-11 Existing Quality of Television Reception . D-18 D-12 Possible EHV Line Effects on Communications Facilities and Recommended Mi nimum Cl earances ........................ D-20 D-13 Calculated Intertie Electric Field Strengths . D-22 0-14 Right-of-Way Use of Single and Multiple Single-Circuit Transmission Lines D-23 ARLIS Alaska Resources Library & Information serVices Anchorage, Alaska "" DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT, FERC NO. 7114 .,(- APPENDIX A LOAD GROWTH FORECAST: THE ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FORECASTS prepared by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Staff A-I A-3 ~ APPENDIX A. LOAD GROWTH FORECAST: THE ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FORECASTS A.1 METHODOLOGY The Applicant has submitted a number of alternative load forecasts for the Railbelt, based on varying world oil price scenarios. All these forecasts were generated by means of the same modeling structure. That structure employs three computer-operated models that provide projec­ tions of: (1) regional demographic, and state economic and fiscal variables, (2) regional electricity demands given specific energy price assumptions, and (3) least-cost generation expansion programs given a demand forecast. The last two model s are iterated to determine a consistent electricity demand forecast given the cost of power projected by the generation expansion program appropriate to that demand forecast. The first computer model--the Man in the Arctic Program (MAP) Economic Mbdel--operates for each of 20 regions within the state; the Railbelt consists of six of those regions. Region-specific projections are produced by disaggregating a statewide projection of employment, population, and household formation variables. The state-level economic, fiscal, and population portions of MAP are solved algebraically in simultaneous fashion. That is, equations within the economic portion of the model are dependent, for instance, on projections within the population portion of the model. The population projections also are dependent on the economic projections. This inter­ dependence, or simultaneity, requires the MAP model to solve iteratively for each year1s set of projections. The fourth portion of MAp--the household formation portion--is not interdependent with any of the other projections, but merely produces projections based on the results of the population forecast. While the many simultaneous and recursive relationships, as well as the large number of equations (more than 1,000) contained in MAP, suggest a highly complex forecasting system (which it is), it is also the case that a great deal of critical information concerning the Railbelt economy has to be forecast exogeneous to the MAP model. For instance, employment projections for the most important sectors of the basic economy have to be assumed. Similarly, large components of the state's projected revenues--a dominant influence in the Railbelt economy--have to be assumed in order to generate forecasts with MAP. The inability of MAP to generate projections for some of these economic variables is due in part to their dependence on influences outside the economy of Alaska. (For instance, employment within the fishing industry is determined in the main by demand fOI' Alaska IS fi sh products in the export markets.) In other instances, independent mode 1i ng efforts conducted by unaffi 1i ated organi zations have been used to formul ate assumed values for some of the MAP data inputs. The MAP projections rely, for instance, on some fore­ casted data prepared by the Alaska Department of Revenue. The MAP model operates to produce annual forecasts through the year 2010. Output from the MAP model that is used subsequently by the Rai'lbelt Electricity Demand (RED) Model as input data consists of annual population projections by load center, total annual employment by load center, and annual household formation projections by load center. The RED model requires exogeneous forecasts of retail pri ces for fue 1 oi 1, natural gas, and e1ectricity.
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