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Assessment of the Risk to Fraser River Sockeye Salmon Due To Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Research Document 2019/019 National Capital Region Assessment of the risk to Fraser River Sockeye Salmon due to Renibacterium salmoninarum transfer from Atlantic Salmon farms in the Discovery Islands area, British Columbia C. Mimeault1, J. Wade2, F. Boily1, S. Johnson3, S.R.M. Jones3, P. Aubry4, G. Malcolm1, M.G.G. Foreman5, P.C. Chandler5, D. Wan5, K.A. Garver3, C. Holt3, I.J. Burgetz1, and G.J. Parsons1 1Fisheries and Oceans Canada Aquaculture, Biotechnology and Aquatic Animal Health Science 200 Kent, Ottawa, ON K1A 0E6 2Fundy Aqua Services Inc. 1859 Delanice Way, Nanoose Bay, BC V9P 9B3 3Fisheries and Oceans Canada Pacific Biological Station 3190 Hammond Bay Road, Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7 4Canadian Food Inspection Agency Animal Health Science Division 1400 Merivale, Ottawa, ON K1A 0Y9 5Fisheries and Oceans Canada Institute of Ocean Sciences 9860 West Saanich Road, Sidney, BC V8L 5T5 November 2020 Foreword This series documents the scientific basis for the evaluation of aquatic resources and ecosystems in Canada. As such, it addresses the issues of the day in the time frames required and the documents it contains are not intended as definitive statements on the subjects addressed but rather as progress reports on ongoing investigations. Published by: Fisheries and Oceans Canada Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat 200 Kent Street Ottawa ON K1A 0E6 http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/ [email protected] © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2020 ISSN 1919-5044 Correct citation for this publication: Mimeault, C., Wade, J., Boily, F., Johnson, S., Jones, S.R.M., Aubry, P., Malcolm, G., Foreman, M.G.G., Chandler, P.C., Wan, D., Garver, K.A., Holt, C., Burgetz, I.J. and Parsons, G.J. 2020. Assessment of the risk to Fraser River Sockeye Salmon due to Renibacterium salmoninarum transfer from Atlantic Salmon farms in the Discovery Islands area, British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2019/019. ix + 63 p. Aussi disponible en français : Mimeault, C., Wade, J., Boily, F., Johnson, S., Jones, S.R.M., Aubry, P., Malcolm, G., Foreman, M.G.G., Chandler, P.C., Wan, D., Garver, K.A., Holt, C., Burgetz, I.J. et Parsons, G.J. 2020. Évaluation du risque pour le saumon rouge du fleuve Fraser attribuable au transfert de la bactérie Renibacterium salmoninarum à partir des fermes d’élevage de saumon atlantique situées dans la région des îles Discovery (Colombie-Britannique). Secr. can. de consult. sci. du MPO. Doc. de rech. 2019/019. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... V LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................. VII GLOSSARY ............................................................................................................................ VIII ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... IX 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................1 2 BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................................1 2.1 MANAGEMENT PROTECTION GOALS ...................................................................... 2 2.2 PROBLEM FORMULATION ........................................................................................ 2 2.2.1 Hazard identification ............................................................................................. 2 2.2.2 Hazard characterization ........................................................................................ 2 2.2.3 Scope ................................................................................................................... 2 2.2.4 Risk question ........................................................................................................ 4 2.2.5 Methodology ......................................................................................................... 4 3 LIKELIHOOD ASSESSMENT..............................................................................................8 3.1 FARM INFECTION ASSESSMENT ............................................................................. 8 3.1.1 Question ............................................................................................................... 8 3.1.2 Considerations ...................................................................................................... 8 3.1.3 Assumptions ........................................................................................................16 3.1.4 Likelihood of farm infection ..................................................................................16 3.2 RELEASE ASSESSMENT ..........................................................................................17 3.2.1 Question ..............................................................................................................17 3.2.2 Considerations .....................................................................................................17 3.2.3 Assumptions ........................................................................................................18 3.2.4 Likelihood of release ............................................................................................18 3.3 EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT .......................................................................................20 3.3.1 Question ..............................................................................................................20 3.3.2 Considerations .....................................................................................................20 3.3.3 Assumptions ........................................................................................................25 3.3.4 Likelihood of exposure .........................................................................................25 3.4 INFECTION ASSESSMENT .......................................................................................27 3.4.1 Question ..............................................................................................................27 3.4.2 Considerations .....................................................................................................27 3.4.3 Assumptions ........................................................................................................32 3.4.4 Likelihood of infection ..........................................................................................32 3.5 OVERALL LIKELIHOOD ASSESSMENT ....................................................................33 4 CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT .....................................................................................34 4.1 QUESTION .................................................................................................................34 4.2 CONSIDERATIONS ....................................................................................................34 iii 4.2.1 Renibacterium salmoninarum infection dynamics ................................................34 4.2.2 Prevalence of infection in wild Pacific salmonid populations ................................34 4.2.3 Bacterial kidney disease mortality in wild Sockeye Salmon ..................................35 4.2.4 Subclinical infections with Renibacterium salmoninarum .....................................36 4.2.5 Estimates of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon densities ..........................................36 4.2.6 Estimates of the proportion potentially exposed to infected farms ........................37 4.2.7 Estimates of exposure over two generations ........................................................38 4.3 ASSUMPTIONS ..........................................................................................................39 4.4 MAGNITUDE OF CONSEQUENCES .........................................................................39 4.4.1 Juvenile Fraser River Sockeye Salmon................................................................39 4.4.2 Adult Fraser River Sockeye Salmon ....................................................................40 4.4.3 Other susceptible Pacific salmon species ............................................................41 5 RISK ESTIMATION ...........................................................................................................41 5.1 ABUNDANCE .............................................................................................................41 5.2 DIVERSITY .................................................................................................................42 6 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTIES .....................................................................................42 6.1 LIKELIHOOD ASSESSMENT .....................................................................................43 6.2 CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT ...............................................................................43 7 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................43 8 REFERENCES CITED ......................................................................................................44 9 APPENDICES ...................................................................................................................50
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