Estimating the Economic Value of Trout Angling in Georgia
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ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF TROUT ANGLING IN GEORGIA: A TRAVEL COST MODEL APPROACH by ADRIENNE MICHELLE DORISON (Under the Direction of Neelam Poudyal) ABSTRACT Georgia trout anglers were surveyed to better understand trout angling trip characteristics, trip costs, climate change knowledge, and demographics. Specific objectives included estimating the total economic value of trout anglers in Georgia, understanding factors determining demand for trout angling, and analyzing potential change in economic value of trout angling in response to trout population reductions due to climate change. With the travel cost model as the theoretical basis, the empirical estimation method employed a truncated negative binomial regression. Consumer surplus per trip per person estimates ranged from $60.02 to $164.57 while annual aggregate estimates ranged from $72.7 to $199.5 million, depending upon opportunity costs of time. Behavioral changes related to four hypothetical trout population reductions estimated potential decline in aggregate net economic values of 1.9% to 49%. Results from this study could help policymakers in particular better understand determinants of trout angling demand, and justifying funding initiatives aimed at protecting or managing for this resource. INDEX WORDS: angling, climate change, consumer surplus, economic value, survey, travel cost model, trout ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF TROUT ANGLING IN GEORGIA: A TRAVEL COST MODEL APPROACH by ADRIENNE MICHELLE DORISON BS, University of Florida, 2008 A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree MASTER OF SCIENCE ATHENS, GEORGIA 2012 © 2012 Adrienne Dorison All Rights Reserved ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF TROUT ANGLING IN GEORGIA: A TRAVEL COST MODEL APPROACH by ADRIENNE DORISON Major Professor: Dr. Neelam Poudyal Committee: Dr. J. M. Bowker Dr. Gary T. Green Electronic Version Approved: Maureen Grasso Dean of the Graduate School The University of Georgia December 2012 DEDICATION I would like to dedicate this thesis to my father, Lee G. Dorison, as he currently fights a battle much more difficult than mine. His unconditional love, support, and guidance allow me to get through each day with confidence and optimism. I could not have accomplished this significant achievement without him by my side. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor, Dr. Neelam Poudyal, for his comments and advice throughout my research experience. I am indebted to him for the financial and advising support he has provided to me as a graduate student. I hope that Dr. Poudyal’s work ethic will remain with me wherever I am led after the University of Georgia. I also wish to thank members of my committee, Dr. J. M. Bowker and Dr. Gary Green for their persistence and patience. Dr. Bowker has been invaluable to my research for his travel cost model expertise. I cannot thank him enough for all of his efforts and mentoring. Dr. Gary Green’s survey expertise also made him an important contributor to this work. It is important to also acknowledge and thank Ramesh Poudyal and James Mingie for their assistance during survey implementation and additional thanks to Ramesh for helping with the data entry phase of this research. I am also personally grateful to have a group of amazing, patient, and understanding friends, boyfriend, and family. They have continued to support me throughout this graduate school and thesis writing process. I would also like to thank God for His many blessings. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................1 Outdoor Recreation Demand and Valuation ...............................................1 Angling in Georgia ......................................................................................4 Trout Angling in Georgia.............................................................................5 Study Rationale ............................................................................................9 Threats to Trout Angling ...........................................................................12 Study Objectives ........................................................................................15 Organization of Study ................................................................................15 2 Review of Literature ........................................................................................16 Travel Cost Modeling Literature ...............................................................16 Fisheries-Specific Travel Cost Modeling Literature .................................23 Welfare Impact of Climate Change on Trout Angling ..............................29 3 Methodology ....................................................................................................34 Non-Market Valuation ...............................................................................34 Theoretical Travel Cost Model ..................................................................36 Survey Instrument Design ..........................................................................40 vi Sample/Population .....................................................................................45 Implementation Process .............................................................................47 Study Area .................................................................................................49 Data Analysis ............................................................................................50 Construction of Variables ..........................................................................54 Dependent Variable ...................................................................................55 Independent Variables ...............................................................................57 Socioeconomic Variables...........................................................................63 Substitutes and Preferences........................................................................66 Final Model Specification .........................................................................67 Pearson Correlations .................................................................................69 Marginal Effects ........................................................................................70 Price Elasticity ..........................................................................................70 Consumer Surplus ......................................................................................72 Climate Change Perceptions .....................................................................74 Potential Change in Trip Behavior Due to Hypothetical Climate Change Scenarios ...................................................................................................76 4 Results ..............................................................................................................78 Sampling Results .......................................................................................78 Data Cleaning and Assumptions ................................................................82 Trout Angler Characteristics ......................................................................84 Trout Angling Trips ...................................................................................86 vii Preference for Site Characteristics .............................................................87 Travel Cost Model .....................................................................................88 Best Fit Model............................................................................................92 Price Elasticity ...........................................................................................97 Consumer Surplus ......................................................................................97 Aggregate Consumer Surplus ....................................................................99 Respondents’ Views on Climate Change in General ...............................102 Angler’s Beliefs Regarding Climate Change Impacts on Trout in Georgia ....................................................................................................103 Potential Change in Net Economic Value under Hypothetical Climate Change Scenarios .....................................................................................106 5 Conclusions ....................................................................................................112 Summary ..................................................................................................112 Policy and Management Implications ......................................................113 Limitations and Suggestions ....................................................................118 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................124 APPENDICES A Georgia Angler Survey: Climate Change &