Renewable Energy Generation: a New Fixed Income Alternative
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2Q 2013 Renewable Energy Generation: A new fixed income alternative Renewable energy assets are positioned to be an attrac- institutional funds will increasingly come to a similar tive asset class. Long-term cash yields from renewable conclusion. energy assets are very attractive relative to investment Many utilities do not have the financial resources to alternatives with comparable risk. Additionally, the continue to invest, or even maintain, large renewable investible universe of renewable energy assets is large portfolios on their balance sheets. The enterprise value and growing, and asset ownership is migrating from of the Europe utility industry was €900 billion at the utilities and IPPs to investors. These trends will lead end of 2007. Five years later, at the end of 2012, it was to a lower cost of capital for deployment and help spur €450 billion. Distributed renewable generation, weak further development of renewable generation. load growth, excess capacity and aging infrastructure all Installed wind and large-scale solar power generation combined to severely pressure the financial wherewithal assets in North America and Europe have grown to over of the European utility industry. The same trends are 180 gigawatts, representing over $250 billion in asset accelerating in the US, and many utility and resource value. Utilities and independent power producers (IPPs) companies are seeking to monetize portions of their are still by far the largest owners of these assets. Over renewable generation assets. We estimate that over $23 trillion of capital exists in institutionally managed 10 gigawatts of existing wind generation assets in the funds from pensions, insurers, endowments and others US will change hands in the next two to three years, as which to date have not made direct investments in many tax equity structures flip and cash begins flowing renewable energy infrastructure. We expect this will to the equity investors. change. Much is written about the potential for publicly However, few new investment pools are being formed. traded yield oriented vehicles to invest in renewable gen- One impediment has been that direct investment eration assets. Indeed, we note that the successful US in energy assets requires a dedicated, specialist listing of NRG Yieldco (NYLD) and Pattern Energy (PEGI), investment management team. The private equity / both of which have traded well post IPO, validate investor infrastructure fund higher fee model (the infamous “2% demand. Several vehicles have emerged recently in and 20%”) destroys the economics for an investor in Europe, with both Greencoat and Bluefield Solar floating renewable generation. Low risk, contracted renewable offerings on the London Stock Exchange in the first part assets lack the high return potential that can bear high of 2013. fees without destroying returns. Some insurance funds European feed-in-tariffs (FITs) and utility power purchase in Europe have addressed this challenge by assembling agreements (PPAs) for existing renewable energy proj- in-house teams of experts and are acquiring seasoned ects are creditworthy sources of long-term, fixed revenue operating assets in target countries, such as France (with exceptions for certain Southern European countries, and the UK. Several Canadian pension funds have also which have repeatedly reduced their FITs). Compared chosen to hire specialist teams to invest alongside IPPs with utility bonds of similar duration, investments in in existing projects, although these bilateral deals can renewable energy projects with long-term PPAs offer be cumbersome to originate and negotiate. several hundred basis points of additional return. This We see the potential for another alternative – a dedicat- comes with resource, operating and liquidity risk – much ed, managed fund structure focused on a fixed income of which can be mitigated by an investor who invests asset management model rather than an expensive, in diversified portfolios of projects with proven perfor- high fee, carried-interest incentive model. A dedicated, mance. Long duration cash yielding assets secured third-party manager of this type would have a fee by contracts with strong counterparties matches well structure that more closely aligns investment costs with the liability planning of many institutional investors. with attractive net returns. This would lower the cost of While public equity market investors seeking yield have capital for assets and bring forth from Utility, IPP and PE already recognized the favorable return versus risk sellers a broader set of assets with high-quality cash characteristics of renewable generation, we believe yield for investors. Renewable Energy Generation: A new fixed income alternative 1 Four Things We Are Watching Downstream Solar Power Electronics Transmission System The Impending Demand for residential Efficient power conver- Asset Sales Return of Sustainable solar is growing rapidly sion remains an area of As capital constrained Infrastructure IPOs and returns are increasing. high interest for private conditions continue for Following another dismal Private investors and investors and acquirors, many utilities globally year of IPOs in the sector public markets are sup- although valuation (particularly in Europe), in 2012, the beginning of portive of the sector, as benchmarks fluctuate utilities are increasingly 2013 seems to be turning evidenced by SolarCity’s significantly. ABB’s acqui- looking to find partners for a corner in the IPO market, meteoric rise in stock sition of Power-One in partial or full ownership of underpinned by the hugely price following its IPO. We April 2013 valued the com- their transmission assets. successful SolarCity expect to see adjustments pany at a 57% premium to We expect this trend IPO. However, this is not to the current third party its stock price, with several to continue as utilities a return to the IPO boom ownership business model other buyers rumored to globally find creative ways years of 2006 – investors as (1) solar system prices be seriously considering to free up capital. The are demanding a track continue to fall, making the acquisition at similar Chinese utilities have tar- record of revenue growth. geted transmission asset outright system ownership levels. We expect many more ownership as a preferred more attainable; and (2) best in class companies to way to expand interna- the lion’s share of the cur- IPO, although caution that tionally, although political rent returns are going to investors are much more and regulatory restrictions the large financial institu- discerning than in the 2007 in many regions restrict tions that are providing the – 2009 period. funding for the leases. ownership to partners from the same region. Equity Market Context After underperforming the broader market over the past several years, sustainable infrastructure equities have seen resurgence this year, especially in 2Q Sustainable Infrastructure vs Broad Equity Market LTM Performance by Subsector Pollution Control 53% 130% Water 24% Biofuels / Bioproducts 9% 125% Demand Side Management 123% 10% Advanced Lighting 54% 120% Environmental Services 13% Solar Equipment / Systems 37% 115% Transportation 173% 110% Advanced Materials 110% 10% Renewable Power Generation 15% 105% Energy Storage 14% Fuel Cells / Clean Technologies 48% 100% Solar - Midstream 135% Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Wind 72% Solar - Upstream 34% GCA Sustainable Infrastructure Index MSCI The World Index Solar - Downstream 252% S&P 500 17% 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 The performance of Elon Musk’s companies (Solar City and Tesla) drove the strong outperformance in the downstream solar and transportation sectors Renewable Energy Generation: A new fixed income alternative 2 M&A Market 1H 2013 M&A activity has tracked slightly below the previous year, although a larger number of transactions indicates that average deal size continues to decline YTD M&A Activity By Target Geography By Target Subsector Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Cleantech Group, CapitalIQ Central and Central and Power Power South America 2% South America 2% Electronics 5% Electronics 5% Wastewater and Wastewater and Water 5% WaterOthe 5%r Other APAC APAC 14% 14% 23% 23% IPP IPPWaste Waste North North Transaction Volume ($mm) 11% 11%Services Services America America 26% 26% 32% 32% $23,509 EMEA EMEA # of Transactions Smart Grid Smart Grid 43% 43% 79 18% 18% Wind Wind Transactions > $250mm 21% 21% 22 21% 21% Wind Wind 18% 18% 43% 43% Smart Grid Smart Grid EMEA EMEA 32% 32% 26% 26% America America Services Services 11% 11% North North Waste Waste IPP IPP 23% % YTD Top M&A 23Deals Announced APAC APAC 14% 14% Water 5% Water 5% Other Other Wastewater and Date Target Acquiror TransactionWastewater and Sector South America 2% South America 2% Electronics 5% Announced Value Electronics 5% Central and Central and Power 4/18/13 ista International GmbH CVC Capital Partners Ltd $4,046 Smart GridPower Renewable Power N/A TrustPower Limited Washington Securities Pty Ltd $2,087 Producer 4/18/13 Befesa Medio Ambiente Triton $1,405 Waste Services 6/17/13 AVR-Afvalverwerking B.V. Cheung Kong $1,258 Waste Services 1/7/13 EnergySolutions Energy Capital Partners $1,178 Waste Services 4/22/13 Power-One ABB $1,000 Power Electronics 1/2/13 Zipcar Avis Budget Group $647 Advanced Transportation Greengate Power Corporation, 300 4/8/13 Megawatt Blackspring Ridge Wind Enbridge Inc.; EDF EN Canada Inc. $588 Wind Project China Resources Power Holdings 5/10/13 Wind Farm Group $552 Wind Co.