V21, 45 Thursday, July 21, 2016

Pence cruises into Republican love

a “grand slam home governor delivers run” on the heels of a classic acceptance speech U.S. Sen. ’s epic “vote your con- By BRIAN A. HOWEY science” speech that BRATENAHL, Ohio – On a glistening found him hounded by summer morning by the shores of Lake Erie, catcalls and boos as he the bleary eyed Indiana Republican National exited the big stage. Convention delegation Pence had en- found themselves in the dorsed Cruz just prior company of their vice to the Indiana primary, presidential nominee. but quickly shifted his It came just hours allegiance to Donald after Indiana Gov. Mike Trump, and like an Pence cruised his way Gov. accepts his vice presidential nomina- Indy 500 driver steer- through the fratricidal carnage at the conven- tion Wednesday night in Cleveland, moving the room . tion, delivering what U.S. Sen. Dan Coats called (HPI Photos by Randy Gentry) Continued on page Pence’s twilight zone By BRIAN A. HOWEY CLEVELAND – Perhaps the most surreal year in Hoosier politics came to a head on the shores of Lake Erie when Mike Pence brought his career into a Trumpian twilight zone. Plucked by the mercu- “I had to speak the truth. It’s rial billionaire from a gubernatorial reelection going to be an interesting couple campaign in which even his of days. The chips will fall where most fervent stalwarts weren’t convinced he would win, Gov. they may.” Pence did what he is apt to do, which is to double down. - U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, after In Trump, he found a political refusing to endorse Donald figure whom he compared to his political hero, . Trump during his RNC “To be around our nominee, as I speech Wednesday night had the privilege to be, not only Page 2 the campaign trail, but out among his war hero. He is a war hero because associates, people that he’s employed he was captured. I like people who for years, and among his family, I weren’t captured.” have a sense of this man,” Pence In fact, during his 1966 Cali- would say from Westfield to Cleve- fornia gubernatorial campaign, it was land. “I have a sense of his heart. I Ronald Reagan who coined the Re- have a sense of his hands-on style of publican “11th Commandment” which leadership, and for all the world, he goes, “Thou shalt not speak ill of any reminds me of Ronald Reagan.” fellow Republican.” It took Donald Howey Politics Indiana Pence is in lonely company Trump a half a century to render this WWHowey Media, LLC 405 when it comes to equating the billion- quaint value moot. aire to President Reagan. When Pence first rational- Massachusetts Ave., Suite This is where Rod Serling ized his Trump life line at a rally in 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 emerges behind the misty Cuyahoga Westfield, Trump emerged on stage www.howeypolitics.com silhouette that Trump presented on with the familiar smirk crossing his Monday night when he introduced his face, and said, “How’s your governor Brian A. Howey, Publisher wife Melania. doing?. . I don’t know if he’ll be your “Is Donald Trump the incarna- governor or your vice president. Who Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington tion of Reagan?” the hell knows?” Jack E. Howey, Editor Serling might begin. Sometime in Mary Lou Howey, Editor “This is a portrait of the next 24 hours, Maureen Hayden, Statehouse an exposed gov- Trump arrived at “vice Mark Curry, photography ernor named Mike president Pence,” but Pence, who feeds neither the Trump nor Randy Gentry, photograph off his self delusion, Pence campaign would who finds himself confirm it was true. Subscriptions perpetually hungry Pence would board HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 for greatness in his a flight to Teterboro, diet. He searches Rod Serling of “The Twilight Zone” only to hear Trump say HPI Weekly, $350 for something which on Fox News that he Ray Volpe, Account Manager explains his hunger and why the world hadn’t come to a “final, final decision.” 317.602.3620 passes him by without saluting. It is I mean, who in the hell really knows? email: [email protected] something he looks for and finds at A press conference was postponed a national convention, in his twisted due to the Nice, France, terror attack, Contact HPI and distorted lexicon he calls it faith, though Trump spent that evening [email protected] strength and truth. But in just a mo- raising money. Multiple news reports Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 ment Mike Pence will ply his trade on painted Trump as “stewing” that he Washington: 202.256.5822 another kind of corner, at the strange had boxed himself into Pence after In- Business Office: 317.602.3620 intersection we call the twilight zone.” diana leaks. He didn’t come to terms Trump the new Reagan? with this default decision until after We never heard Ronald midnight, with Serling rumored to be © 2016, Howey Politics Reagan dispatch a primary rival by hovering on the balcony. Indiana. All rights reserved. insinuating the man’s father was The Pence staff panicked, Photocopying, Internet forward- implicated in the assassination of an according to CNN, while the governor ing, faxing or reproducing in American president, the very president remained serene, believing that Trump who was an early Pence hero. Reagan would never go back on his word, any form, whole or part, is a never used the F-bomb. Reagan never after a year of campaigning that fea- violation of federal law without said he could win an election even tured Trump devolving and backtrack- permission from the publisher. if he shot a man on Fifth Avenue. ing on everything from self-financing Reagan never made fun of disabled his campaign to whether Japan and people. Reagan never talked about South Korea should have nukes, to a female anchor having a menstrual going from “very pro-choice” on abor- cycle, or bragged about his penis tion to prosecuting women for going size (this was jumbo LBJ territory). through the procedure. On torture, Reagan would never belittle a former Trump said that torture works” and POW like the hero Sen. John McCain, that he would “bring back waterboard- about whom Trump said, “He’s not a ing, and I’d bring back a hell of a lot Page 3 worse than waterboarding.” He said about himself than Pence. When the In- that the CIA and military will “do as diana governor spoke, Trump exited the I tell them,” only to say a day later, stage. A day later on the CBS show “60 “I will not order a military officer to Minutes,” Trump said he didn’t expect disobey the law. It is clear that as Pence to turn into a negative campaign- president I will be bound by laws er. “We’re different people. I understand just like all Americans and I will that,” Trump said. “I don’t think he meet those responsibilities.” should do it because it’s different for Reagan was disciplined and him. He’s not that kind of a person.” committed to a range of conserva- Pence quickly signaled his will- tive ideals and principles. ingness to shift on the issues. Asked It wasn’t until 11 a.m. A young Mike Pence meets President Reagan in if he agreed with Trump’s call for “a Friday that Trump would tweet 1983. temporary ban on Muslims entering the that Pence was his man. On Satur- ,” a stance Pence had said day, Trump introduced Pence at the very same mid-town in December was “offensive” and “unconstitutional,” Pence Manhattan hotel where Reagan would kick off his 1980 responded: “I do.” revolutionary campaign. “One of the big reasons I chose In the “60 Minutes” interview, the optics Mike, and it’s because of party unity,” Trump said. “I’m showed Bambi seated with a wolf. an outsider. I won in a landslide as a party outsider. This The Indiana RNC delegation, once decidedly anti- wasn’t close. I’m a messenger. We got almost 14 million Trump, has come around to the Trump/Pence ticket. Most votes. That’s more than anyone in Republican Party his- have signed on for the favorite son. But make no mistake, tory. More than Ronald Reagan, President Nixon, President how this all ends, whether it is on Nov. 9 if the ticket loses, Eisenhower, and he won a war. One of the big reasons I or into what will almost certainly be a controversial presi- chose Mike was because of Indiana. We won Indiana big.” dency if he wins, is a mystery wrapped in an enigma. The media would note that Trump talked more Mike Pence has entered the twilight zone. v

are deceiving. I have to tell ya, when I looked out from Pence acceptance, from page 1 that stage, and looked out at all of you, it was an incred- ing his way through wreckage, he offered up the clearest ible source of encouragement. Whatever we have been rationale for a “President Trump. So moved was the nomi- able to do in public service over these past 16 years, all nee that Trump appeared on stage after Pence concluded is owed to the Republican Party of the State of Indiana. and came close to kissing him on the cheek. We’re just so grateful to all of you, we could go all around “Donald Trump gets it,” Pence said in his half hour the room and thank people at literally every table. Thank speech in prime time. “He’s a you for carrying us not only doer in a game usually reserved politically, but in praryer. I for talkers. He doesn’t tiptoe know you will continue to carry around a thousand new rules us. I hope all of you know of political correctness. He’s his what Karen and I know, what own man, distinctly American, put us on that stage is what and where else would he find a we, Hoosier Republicans, have following in the land of the free accomplished together.” and home of the brave?” Pence added, “I hope Eight and a half hours you didn’t mind me bragging later at the Shoreby Club, Mike on stage about the Hoosier and Karen Pence returned to Gov. Mike Pence and First Lady Karen emotionally greet state. So we’re just here to their Hoosier peeps. There had Indiana delegates at the Shoreby Club in Bratenahl, Ohio, say thank you, thanks for your been some push back from the Thursday morning. (HPI Photo by Randy Gentry) love, prayers and support. Now Secret Service, for whom Pence let’s go get this done.” Soon entered the protective bubble on Tuesday, and the Trump thereafter, Pence made the campaign, but the vice presidential nominee insisted he rounds, shaking hands, holding Chairman Jeff Cardwell’s owed it to the delegation to say thanks. baby grandson, hugging Lt. Gov. and others, “What a morning,” Pence said emotionally. “I and then . . . he was gone, heading into the unknown, into stopped by a televison show this morning and they told what will be one of the nastiest presidential campaigns in me, ‘You didn’t even look nervous last night.’ Well, looks modern history. Page 4

Acceptance speech health care. Conserva- Pence commenced tive principles work his speech that echoed, every time you put sometimes word for word, them into practice.” his introductory press con- He added of his ference with Trump in New roots, “Now if you York City last Saturday. “I’m know anything about a Christian, a conservative Hoosiers, when we and a Republican in that or- suit up, we love to der,” Pence said in a phrase win.” well known to Hoosier Pence returned Republicans. “You know, to Trump saying, “We I’m new to this campaign. can choose a leader Honestly, I never thought I to fight every day to would be standing here. I make america great thought I would be spend- again. When Donald ing this evening with all my Trump becomes presi- friends in the great state dent of United States, of Indiana. Yet there I was, a few days ago in New York the change will be City with a man who won 37 states, who faced 16 talented huuuuuge.” The crowd lapped it up. opponents and outlasted every one of them, and along Toward the end of this speech, Pence reminded the way brought millions of new voters into the Republican Republicans that there is more at stake than just one elec- Party.” tion. “As this election approaches, every American should “He is a man known for a large personality, a col- know, this is about more than four years, this election will orful style and lots of charisma,” Pence then said. “I think define the Supreme Court for the next 40. We ought to he was just looking for some balance on the ticket.” think very carefully for what this means. We must insure He introduced his mother, Nancy, and wife, Karen, the next president appointing Supreme Court justices is with the adoring convention crowd chanting their names. Donald Trump.” He told delegates, “I grew up on the front row of the Pence ended making the case for himself and American dream,” citing his childhood growing up in Co- Trump. “Should I have the awesome privilege to serve as lumbus with cornfields in the back yard, the son of an im- vice president . . . I believe we have come to another ren- migrant gas station owner who served in the Korean War. dezvous with destiny,” adding that there is “faith that God He noted his first political heroes were Democrats, includ- can still heal our land.” ing President John F. Kennedy and Rev. Martin Luther King As for Trump, Pence added, “If you want a presi- K r. dent who will establish law and order, give them resources, It was the voice of President Reagan, Pence said, a president who can cut taxes and squeeze every nickel that pried him from “the other party.” In this speech, he out of the bureaucracy, create strong borders who will didn’t compare Trump to Reagan, whose signature political enforce our laws, end the status quo in Washington and phrase was the “11th Commandment” of “Thou shalt not appoint justices of the Supreme Court who will uphold the speak ill of a fellow Republican.” In the 2016 campaign, constitution, we have that one choice. That man is ready, Trump had repeatedly trashed his GOP primary opponents, this party is ready. We will make america great again.” including “Lyin’ Ted Cruz. This is territory Pence will not While national commentators focused on the Cruz tread. controversy and suggested Pence failed to deliver, the Pence observed, “The party in power is helpless opinion of just about every Hoosier delegate and HPI is figuring out our nominee. So does the media. They keep that Pence accomplished what he needed to do. He intro- thinking they’ve done him in and they wake up in the duced himself to a national audience who doesn’t know morning and he’s still running. He’s tough, he perserveres who he is. He made the case for Trump. He accentuated and never turns his back on the men and women who conservatives values that the mogul hasn’t articulated in makes this country grow.” the Pence manner. And in the final 45 minutes in a con- He contrasted the GOP with presumptive Demo- ventional hall racked with turmoil for most of this week, he cratic nominee , who he said, “invented had the place moving to his sunny beat. Obamacare” and stands for “more taxes, more regulation Pence was introduced by U.S. House Speaker Paul and more government.” He said that the former secretary Ryan, who said, “He’s a man of conviction. He’s a man you of state seeks a new title, that of “secretary of status quo.” can trust. He comes from the heart of the conservative He talked of his term as Indiana governor, say- movement and from the heart of America. And now we ing of his homes state, “We prove every day that we build need to send him and Donald Trump straight to the White an economy based on balanced budgets, good roads and House.” v Page 5

morning, Cruz issued a stunning rebuke. “This morning, Evangelicals migrate Donald Trump went on national television and attacked my father. Donald Trump alleges that my dad was in- volved in assassinating JFK,” Cruz said in the most surreal to Trump, but see political twist in Indiana history. “Now, let’s be clear, this is nuts. This is not a reasonable position. This is just a realignment shaping kooky.” Cruz then launched into a broadside against By BRIAN A. HOWEY Trump, saying, “I’m gonna tell you what I really think of CLEVELAND – One of the biggest surprises of the Donald Trump: This man is a pathological liar. He doesn’t Donald Trump phenomenon is his strength with evangelical know the difference between truth and lies. He lies practi- voters. cally every word that comes out of his mouth, and in a While Trump won the Indiana primary with 53% of pattern that I think is straight out of a psychology text- the vote and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz polled 37%, he won the book, his response is to accuse everybody else of lying.” born-again evangelical Christian vote 51 to 43% over Cruz, according to CNN exit polling data. Among white born-again Christian or evangelicals, the numbers were almost identical: Trump 50% and Cruz 44%. Among the 18% who attend religious services more than once a week, Cruz had 61% to Trump’s 33%, but those numbers quickly shifted to a 49-40% advantage for Trump over Cruz among those who attend church once a week, to 54-33% for those who attend a few times a month, and 69-22% among those who attend a few times a year. There were early precursors to this, as Trump showed similar strength in states like South Carolina and when the field included 17 candidates. When the dust settled and Trump won the nomination after the May 3 Indiana primary, Trump had carried 39% of the total GOP primary vote to Cruz’s 33%. This is fascinating because the corner- stone of Cruz’s entire campaign was based on draw- U.S. Sen. Dan Coats and National Committeewoman Marsha Coats. (HPI ing strength from evangelical voters. Photo by Randy Gentry) Gene Ulm, the Public Opinion Strategies pollster who conducted the WTHR/Howey Politics The 2016 election cycle has annihilated conven- Indiana Poll in April, observed, ““The evangelical voters are tional wisdom, and no one could have fathomed that just as pro-life as ever, but that’s not where their focus is. Their two months after Trump’s bizarre Indiana victory, the focus is, ‘Why is my adult child still living in my basement?’ evangelical Gov. Pence would join him on the ticket, com- Evangelical voters are older, poorer, haven’t had a pay raise paring him to President Reagan, and that other pro-life in 12 years. Their children can’t get jobs. They see economic and evangelical Hoosiers such as Jim Bopp Jr., U.S. Sen. stagnation. That’s what they’re voting. They are dissatisfied Dan Coats and national committeewoman Marsha Coats with their own leaders. They are much more populist and would sign on. Marsha Coats would say, “God is so big he that’s where their focus is.” can even humble Donald Trump.” Prior to the Indiana primary, Rev. Rafael Cruz “There is a big change underway,” Smith acknowl- made a number of appearances in Indiana on behalf of his edged, noting. “There is great anxiety. There is a sense son, accompanied a couple of times by Curt Smith of the that America is in decline, that American greatness is Indiana Family Institute, who called the statistics a “real eye slipping away.” Smith cited a decline in education, out-of- opener.” Not only did Cruz court Hoosier evangelicals, he wedlock births and the arrival of methamphetamine and also earned the 11th hour endorsement of Gov. Mike Pence. heroin in rural areas. And in a bizarre twist in the race, Trump would implicate Smith acknowledged he was caught off guard Rev. Cruz in the 1963 assassination of President John F. Ken- by the rise of Trump. “It was very surprising Cruz did not nedy, based on one shadowy photo purporting to show Cruz do better with evangelicals. I thought he was in a better with assassinator Lee Harvey Oswald in a Fair Play for position.” demonstration. There was virtually nothing else that even That encroaching reality materialized when he at- came close to confirming the story. tended an Evansville rally for Cruz that brought out 2,500 In an Evansville press conference on Election Day voters. “I was very pleased,” he said. “A few days later, Page 6

Trump drew 15,000. senators. When he ap- There’s a realignment peared in Fort Wayne, happening.” “He sought her out,” the Sen. Coats senator said. “He said, remembers a conversa- ‘Marsha, I will not let you tion he had with Cruz down.” in which he made sug- He’s had two gestions for his Indiana other interactions, and campaign. “He checked like Smith, Coats finds off every box,” Coats Trump much different in said. He ended up los- private meetings than ing to Trump 53-37%. what we see on the What they found in campaign trail. “He is the Trump rallies were totally different,” Coats people who never said. It raises the notion attend a Republican that Trump has simply Lincoln Dinner or any scripted a reality show other party function. that has resonated with They have gravitated an afflicted portion of the to what is now known voting bloc. as the “blue collar And like Smith, billionaire.” Trump has Coats is in awe of figured out how to Trump’s appeal, noting reach the very people that a rally in Cincinnati drew 25,000 people. he might scold as In another conversation, he told Trump, “If “losers.” you change your speech, you might draw 250 Smith has de- people. I think you really need to be Donald cided to back Trump Trump, but what I see now is a Donald Trump after meeting with the who listens and asks questions. If you can find Manhattan billionaire that balance, you can find the sweet spot.” in New York on June Trump thanked the senator for the advice. 21. “I came away im- At a later meeting in Fort Wayne, Coats pressed with Trump. observed, “It was all him asking questions.” At He was not bellicose, one point, Trump turned to Marsha Coats and but very friendly,” asked, “What do you think?” Smith said. “He gave Coats believes that Gov. Mike Pence will us the names of 11 be a good influence on the mercurial billion- potential Supreme U.S. Sen. Dan Coats with Curt Smith, a former aide who aire. “I think Mike will have a positive impact Court nominees that now heads the Indiana Family Institue. on him,” Coats said of the vice presidential have been vetted by nominee. “We usually don’t marry some- the Federalist Society.” one just like us. This is a marriage of two very different Smith said that Trump told the group, “I’m going people.” to give you pro-life justices.” Trump, who has evolved and Trump has evolved and flipped on life issues, flip-flopped on life issues, then paused, and finally said, which are extremely important to both Coats and Trump. “Hillary will give you the opposite.’” The effect was dra- “If I were to script the ideal candidate, it wouldn’t be Don- matic. ald Trump,” Coats said. But Hillary Clinton is simply unac- Smith said he was conflicted about signing on ceptable. with Trump, calling him “the most flawed candidate I’ve Is there a realignment underway, with evangelicals ever seen on the national level.” Asked about his relation- the proverbial canary in the coal mine? ships with Rev. Cruz and the fantastic JFK assassination “I’m just trying to wrap my mind around what’s allegation aimed at Rev. Cruz, Smith responded, “I kept happening,” said Coats, who is ending a 36-year political coming back to that phrase, ‘Hillary will give you the op- career in 2016. “There are a whole range of people who are posite.” just so disgusted with the status quo.” Sen. and Marsha Coats also decided to back Curt Smith believes it’s too early to truly under- Trump. Marsha Coats penned a letter to Trump rais- stand the magnitude of the 2016 election cycle. “Things are ing concerns. “I gave that letter to Donald Trump,” Sen. changing and it’s hard to measure change,” he said. “We’ll Coats said of a meeting the nominee had with Republican know more later.” v Page 7

lobby or at the AT&T luncheon on Tuesday where Brooks, An unprecedented Holcomb and Rokita were circulating, along with Cardwell, who hasn’t pulled the trigger, vowing to create a “level playing field” that ultimately may preclude his entry. gubernatorial caucus It is unclear whether Gov. Pence will officially endorse any one. While his gubernatorial office won’t may be down to the comment on political affairs, referring HPI to his campaign, which appears to be suspended as key figures have moved wire on Tuesday to Trump Inc., at least one highly influential Republican who spoke on background told HPI that Pence will give his By BRIAN A. HOWEY $7 million campaign war chest to the nominee. CLEVELAND – In a scant five days, the most HPI sat down with the three contenders in Cleve- unusual political sequence will take place at Indiana Re- land and here is the case that are making: publican headquarters when the GOP Central Committee meets to select the gubernatorial Brooks counting on her resume nominee to replace Gov. Mike She has worked with the mayor of Indianapolis on Pence. Never in the state’s 200- crime issues, led an 80-man U.S. district attorney office year history has a major party’s just after Sept. 11, run a small business and worked at central committee gone through Ivy Tech on workforce development and education issues. this process. She’s been a mom, raised $4.3 million in the last five years HPI’s Horse Race has and she’s won every election with at least 58% of the this caucus in “tossup” territory, vote. with Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb a nominal favorite based on That is the pitch U.S. Rep. is mak- the “next man up” sentiment. His nomination of Gov. Mike ing to the 22 members of the Indiana Republican Central Pence at the Republican National Convention Tuesday on Committee this week in national TV with arena expo- Ohio for the open Republi- sure on the jumbotron at pri- can gubernatorial nomina- metime was seen by some as a tion. Should she convince de facto nod from Gov. Pence. 12 of those voters next U.S. Rep. Susan Tuesday, Brooks would Brooks, U.S. Rep. , become the first female State Sen. Jim Tomes and pos- GOP nominee with a real sibly Republican Chairman Jeff shot at breaking the ulti- Cardwell could round out the mate glass ceiling on Nov. field, which virtually everyone 8. And, she believes, her we’ve talked has described as nomination would cause “fluid” and potentially unde- Democrat John Gregg to cided. Brooks, too, had that have to completely retool kind of jumbotron exposure his campaign message. on Monday when she was When interviewed featured about the Woman to Wednesday afternoon, Woman Conference designed Brooks was losing her to promote gender inclusion in voice. “I’ve visited with 11 the party. of the 16 who are here so Seventh CD Vice Chair far,” the Carmel Republican Jennifer Ping told HPI that said. “more than half the committee Another element com- is undecided.” For her, the key ing into focus is Gov. Mike questions are which nominee Pence’s $7 million cam- can raise money and which paign war chest. Informed one would be the most elect- and reliable GOP sources able in a 100-day sprint race tell HPI that Pence is likely against Democrat John Gregg. to transfer those funds to “Our responsibility is to win Rep. Rokita talks with Murray Clark while David Brooks looks on the new nominee, though elections,” Ping said. (top photo), while Rokita talks with HPI at Quicken Loans Arnea. the Pence campaign nor There have been mo- Rep. Brooks appears on the RNC Jumbotron. (HPI Photos by Randy gubernatorial office had ments in the Hilton Garden Gentry and Brian A. Howey) not responded to ques- Page 8 tions on that and other very impressed, in all of the matters. A good part of meetings that I’ve had thus far, the Pence campaign has with the caliber of seriousness been absorbed in the they are taking this responsibili- Trump President Inc. ty. They are digging deep. They in what one influential are asking good questions. I am GOP source described as trying to find out what’s impor- “chaotic.” Brooks said, “I tant to them and their parts of would anticipate that’s the state.” what Gov. Pence would Brooks’ pitch is this: “I do. He cares very much have won tough elections, about winning in Novem- particularly my very first, which ber. He’s committed that was a crowded eight-way pri- whoever comes through mary. I have been able to fund- this process is well-fund- raise very effectively. It’s going ed. He’s going to want to to be tested in a huge way for make sure he’s leaving whoever becomes our nominee. the party and nominee in a good place. I have not had Because of the time involved, discussing my network with a conversation with him directly about it, but I have had respect to my fundraising capabilities has been important conversations with the RGA.” to them. The very deep team of expertise that I have in Like Holcomb and Rokita, Brooks finds the com- campaigns has always guided me well. I’ve had primaries mittee members seriously approaching the equation of every time I’ve run. In my first race I beat (Democrat) selecting a nominee on behalf of the 800,000 Hoosier State Rep. Scott Reske, who had very strong credentials. Republicans who nominated Pence in May. “They are ask- It’s going to take someone who is tested in elections and ing fabulous questions,” said Brooks, who knows about my team is a very deep team.” half the members. She has been meeting with them at Her resume is also part of the pitch, from her the hotel here and at Quicken Loans Arena. “I’ve been small business experience as a lawyer, to becoming deputy Page 9 mayor to Stephen Goldsmith in Indianapolis, to receiving a ton of people who want me to get in. It’s humbling. I’ve the district attorney nomination from President George W. got to decide soon.” Bush, and taking office a month after the Sept. 11, 2001, Holcomb pointed to his eight years in the Daniels terror attacks. “So I became very focused on keeping our administration and then his service as state GOP chairman communities safe from terrorism,” she said. “That contin- under both Daniels and Gov. Mike Pence, followed by a ues to be a focus for voters.” stint as U.S. Sen. Dan Coats’ state director. “This is a team As a member of Congress, she has worked on effort that I’ve worked with them in different capacities,” the opioid addiction crisis that has spread across the state. “I have been waiting for the president to sign this fabulous bill,” she said. “We’re going to have to stay very focused on changing the number of opioid overdoses in this state. The son of a good friend of mine died of an overdose a couple of weeks ago. This is a problem that has touched too many families.” Her case against John Gregg is this: “John Gregg led the state at a time and under the policies of Democrat leadership in the state. The state suffered greatly. When Gov. Daniels came to office, he had to dig the state budget out of a huge hole. Pension funds had been spent and obligated rather than going to pensioners. The governor had to make some tough choices. The fiscal sta- bility of the state under John Gregg’s leader- ship as speaker is something the people Lt. Gov. Holcomb nominates Gov. Pence Tuesday at the RNC. (HPI Photo by Randy have not forgotten.” Gentry) In the state’s 200-year history, only Democrat has been nominated for governor (in 2008) by a major party. Brooks Holcomb said of the Central Committee in an interview hopes to be the first Republican. “It’s a very exciting no- here Tuesday. “I’ve worked with them during the Daniels tion to be the first female governor of Indiana,” she said. administration. I’ve worked with them when I was state “But it’s also very humbling. I appreciate that there are not chairman, when I was traveling the state on behalf of Sen. enough women who step up and run for office. It’s very Coats. I’ve worked with them as lieutenant governor on hard. I have been, every since I joined Congress, working their communities on an official basis. So in a community to encourage women to run at all levels. and working on housing or agriculture or tourism, it’s a whole different area of relationships and one I enjoy very Holcomb has 12 years of relationships much. I have the ‘I Love Indiana job.’ Promote this state Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb, believes the relationships and call it work. I don’t think anyone would be surprised he’s forged over the past 12 years with the 22 Republican by my goals to take this state to even greater heights.” Central Committee members gives him an edge for the Holcomb explained, “My goals are not compli- caucus. “I know them. We’ve worked on issues together. cated. I’m trying to not just win the Big 10 championship. We’re not meeting for the first time,” said Holcomb. “We We want to win the national championship. I want to be have a reference about something we’ve gone through the best partner of anyone who seeks to make sure our with most of them. I’ve admired what they’ve done for kids have access to the best quality of education available. years and years, and what they’ve accomplished.” I want to make sure I’m the best partner for anyone who On Tuesday, the field expanded when State Sen. wants to continue our economic strength and continue to Jim Tomes announced he would enter the race, joining diversify our economy.” U.S. Reps. Susan Brooks and Todd Rokita. “As a state He continued, “There’s lots of things to do in this senator for six years in the General Assembly, I have the world and it would be a waste of time to run for governor experience in the legislative process of Indiana govern- if all you were going to do is get elected and hold an of- ment,” Tomes said on Monday. “I’ve learned the relation- fice. It’s what you will do once you get there that matters ship not only between the other two branches of govern- the most. I’ve had the good fortune of having a front row ment, but also the interaction between the many agencies seat for eight years working for former Gov. Mitch Daniels, within Indiana.” Republican Chairman Jeff Cardwell is still who took that very same approach to this assignment, pondering entry, telling HPI mid-day Tuesday that “there’s where we didn’t shirk, didn’t slink away from challenging Page 10 times whether they were manmade or not. We confronted for years on what was my opponent’s watch. I know the those challenges courageously, got this state back on record. I knew it before I was state chairman. I was state track, got back on course and started going full steam chairman the first time he ran against Mike Pence. There’s ahead. That’s the same approach I’ll take.” no catching up for me on the 100-day sprint. You’ve got to The on key question confronting Holcomb is his start on day one. We first have to win the election.” ability to raise money. His 12-month U.S. Senate candi- “I’ve talked off and on with all of them,” he said dacy yielded about $500,000. “I raised over half a million of the Central Committee members. “I still want more against two sitting congressmen,” he explained of the race substantive conversations. I’ll continue to talk with all of he waged against them. U.S. Reps. and Marlin Rokita makes his case in Cleveland Stutzman before Gov. U.S. Rep. Todd Rokita, at the urging of his wife, is Pence selected him as taking the subtle approach. “It is unprecedented,” Rokita lieutenant governor said of the replacement process for Gov. Mike Pence’s last March. “Primar- gubernatorial nomination that began a mere two weeks ily all my money was ago. “I’m just taking it day by day. I’m taking a relaxed coming from Indiana. approach to the tiny universe of voters that I have, that’s We had a plan to fund these 22 people. A nomination with 22 people and 12 my effort when the votes. My wife told me, now Todd, your nature is to be time came, to get up Chairman Cardwell and Lt. Gov. Type A, aggressive. Just relax, go have a beer. They’re all on the air. People do Holcomb at breakfast on Tuesday. (HPI friends. I’ve known most of these folks for years, since my that different ways. Photo by Brian A. Howey) first days of running for secretary of state. We were fully pre- “This is all in the family. We’re all liked and there’s pared to be up on the different variations of that, just like you would in a fam- air and share our story and narrative.” ily,” Rokita continued. “But I’m having a good time with it. “A lot of people around the state see me running I’m having a great conversation with voters so far. Yes, it for governor rather than running for Washington,” Hol- is unprecedented and in that vein, these people are taking comb said. “The congressionals are running for this office it seriously. I think they feel the weight of voting in the and people are saying, “Wait, Eric was in the governor’s sense for six million people. They are carrying that respon- office for eight years working on property tax reform, HIP, sibility.” Major Moves, and they see me more doing this. They were Rokita, who resigned his own 5th CD nomination calling me, saying thank you for running. Rather than run- last Friday to run in the July 26 caucus added, “Because of ning from Indiana for Washington, it’s now the opposite. that weight, this is a very fluid situation.” “Right now I am very encouraged by the number Central Committee mem- of people on our Facebook page, bers, delegates and media which is growing, people who are received daily fliers from saying, ‘How can I help?’” Holcomb Rokita’s team, stressing his said. “That’s not just happening at electability, fundraising and the grassroots levels, it’s happen- policy results as a congress- ing with county chairmen, mayors man and two-term secretary and legislators. It’s also happening of state. on the donor level. I don’t want to Rokita’s pitch is this: get the cart before the horse, but “Did you see the note I left I’ve got a fundraiser on the 26th. underneath your door?” he If everything goes well, we’ll come asked. “We are presenting a out of the gates strong. I will be fact-based case for why I’m able to share with the committee Rep. Rokita works the phone at the RNC. (HPI Photo by Randy the best weapon against fundraisers in their districts that Gentry) John Gregg and the best have already been scheduled.” choice for Republicans to Holcomb also believes he is be governor. I’ve won two best positioned to wage war against Gregg. “I am uniquely statewide elections, both with good results even in 2006, positioned. I spent four years cleaning up the mess he which was a horrible year for Republicans. I led the ticket left us. I spent every minute in every day for Mitch. Those in votes.” first four years we were cleaning up the mess,” he said. “You’ll see something that talks about my fundrais- “Cleaning up an $800 million deficit, we were cleaning ing,” Rokita said, noting that he has more than $1.4 million up delayed payments to schools and local governments. in his war chest. “I have a network around the state. I’ve We were finding a way to build roads that were promised raised $8 million around the state. I make that case as Page 11 well. There are 114 days between now and the election. You have to have someone who has a campaign up and The earth shifts under going. We’re not wasting any time. I’ve made hires for the governor’s race. We are preparing to get this job done. Young, but he’ll make There’s a lot more horse power now on Team Rokita than there was for the congressional race.” And he contrasts himself with Democrat nominee a case against Bayh John Gregg, saying, “We have a paper out on his trans- By BRIAN A. HOWEY portation plan.” Rokita sits on the House Transportation and THOMAS CURRY Committee and said, “We’ve got dollars coming back to CLEVELAND – Republican U.S. Senate nominee Indiana. I have some transportation expertise. I know Todd Young went from a 48-to-30% lead over in what I’m talking about. On education, I just had a major an April WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll to trailing Evan bill done and I worked in a bipartisan way to get the presi- Bayh 54-33% in a Garin-Hart-Yang Poll conducted for the dent to sign it. It returns a lot of power back to the states. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. I want to be the education governor who implements it.” Young went from $1.23 million cash on hand com- Rokita said that “an open seat race is always a dif- pared against about $350,000 for ferent dynamic and it requires you to pick the best weap- Hill, to an almost 10-to-1 deficit on. Even if you say it, if any one of the three of us gets against Bayh. He went from facing in, you still want to pick the best weapon for the job. It’s an opponent who had no reason- open seat race. I’m trying to get the 22 voters to realize able expectation of launching a this is not a slam dunk moment and that they can’t attack statewide TV ad campaign until Mike Pence anymore. You need someone with the experi- October, to one where ence and the numbers to get the job done.” was launching a statewide TV ad His core message against Gregg is this: “We’ve campaign two days after finally “deciding” to enter the come too far to go back to the backwater. John Gregg pre- race. sided over the state of Indiana while Democratic governors Bayh went from getting a phone call from Hill had us at the bottom of all the lists we should have been “last Thursday or Friday” to announcing he would get in at the top of.” on Tuesday, to running high production quality ads a week As for Gov. Pence’s $7 million war chest, Rokita later. was asked if the governor should give it to the eventual Through it all, the Todd Young campaign has GOP nominee. “I haven’t talked to the governor about taken an Alfred E. Neuman “what, me worry?” approach to that. It seems to me it’s not his money; it’s the donors’ what has been who expected him to run for governor. I’m sure they’re an unprecedent- happy he’s the VP nominee, as am I. But that money ed sea change. should go to the gubernatorial nominee and I think those They’ve watched donors are going to force that. You can’t use that money this “safe” Re- in a federal race, though you could use it in a super PAC. A publican seat flip good portion of that money is going to be needed for any to “Leans Demo- one of us to take on John Gregg.” crat” in less than On Wednesday, Rokita noted an uptick in interest a week. and in Central Committee members, with more of them There seeking him out. He took that as a good sign. is a stay-the- On Thursday, he released Public Opinion Strate- course mental- gies polling data that shows that in a head-to-head with ity in the Young Democrat John Gregg, he has a 45-43% lead. Rokita starts campaign, with 71% name identification in the Indianapolis media despite the market, on par with John Gregg (74%). after voters heard political earth- information about both Rokita’s and John Gregg’s back- quake. “We’re getting Todd around the state right now,” ground, issue priorities and accomplishments; we re-asked said campaign manager Trevor Foughty. ballot preferences. Todd jumps to a stronger double-digit Why? lead over Gregg, 54%-41%. Because they view Evan Bayh as a deeply flawed “What I learned from that is if you try too hard candidate, who bolted from his 2010 reelection battle over and you are too aggressive, you end up missing it. How the looming Tea Party movement, his Obamacare vote did that old song go? ‘Hang on loosely, but don’t let go?’” the following month, and a plethora of financial data that Apt that in a shotgun marriage just a few days showed the Bayhs’ personal income rising 350% between away, Rokita ended up quoting .38 Special. 1998 and 2010. HPI Horse Race: Tossup v Page 12

On the Garin-Hart-Yang poll, Foughty attributes Prosperity for Indiana” Tour to hear from Hoosier small the gaping advantage for Bayh based on name ID that business owners and voters across the state on economic comes from his eight years as governor and 12 as a U.S. and national security issues. Bayh will make his first stops senator. today in include Fort Wayne, South Bend and Hammond. U.S. Sen. Dan Coats, who told Howey Politics The tour will continue throughout the campaign and focus Indiana that he’s “all in” for whatever the Young campaign on how to address the challenges facing Indiana, from needs over the next four months, predicted that Young balancing the budget and protecting taxpayers to mak- “will close the money gap fast.” Foughty added that the ing college more affordable and keeping Americans safe. Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and a variety “Indiana is the Crossroads of America and its compass of super PACs will soon be involved. for common sense. The ingenuity of our small businesses “Todd has always said that the control of the Sen- and resolve of our middle class families can help solve the ate could come down to Indiana,” Foughty said. Asked if problems we face if we just listen to them,” Bayh said. outside money is on the “I want to continue to be a solutions senator that puts way, he dead panned, partisanship aside, reacts to the anger and unease in this “That would be my country and moves America forward, while putting Indiana guess.” Will the gap first.”HPI Horse Race: Leans Bayh. close fast? “I think so,” he said, adding, “For us, Congress the message hasn’t re- ally changed.” Brooks, Rokita will both seek nominations In this Age of If both U.S. Rep. Susan Brooks and U.S. Todd Trump, Foughty ob- Rokita, or just one of them, lose, they can ask to be nomi- served, “A lot of Hoo- nated to their congressional races again. Precinct commit- siers think the system tee members in their districts will get the final say (Briggs is rigged and this confirms their suspicions. Evan Bayh is & Cook, IndyStar). Brooks said in an interview she already emblematic of that.” has reached out to committee members to say she wants This all comes after the $50 million U.S. Senate to resume her reelection bid in Indiana’s 5th District should race of 2012, where more than $30 million spilled in from she fail to get the nod for governor. Brooks, a two-term in- outside PACs for U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar, Treasurer Richard cumbent from Carmel, had been set to face Democrat An- Mourdock, and eventual winner Democrat . gela Demaree in the general election. “I very much intend The Democratic Senatorial Committee poll by to ask them to put me back on the ballot,” Brooks said. pollster Fred Yang not only showed Bayh leading Young Rokita also said he has informed precinct committee mem- 54-33% with 13% undecided, but it rated Bayh’s positive bers in the 4th District that he’ll seek the nomination again job performance at 55%. “While Bayh’s support stems in if he isn’t a candidate for governor. Rokita, a three-term some degree from his name recognition advantage (still incumbent from Brownsburg, was running against Demo- an impressive 82% despite not having run a campaign in crat John Dale. So far, no one has emerged to challenge more than a decade, compared to 54% for Young), Bayh Brooks or Rokita if they run for reelection. Carmel Mayor maintains a strong double-digit lead among voters who Jim Brainard has expressed interest in running for Brooks’ know both candidates: 55% Bayh, 39% Young.” seat. And State Sen. Ron Alting of Lafayette is exploring a Foughty reacted to the poll, telling HPI, “It’s no run for Rokita’s seat. But both prospective candidates have surprise that Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer would release said they are interested only if the incumbents are out of a poll showing their handpicked superlobbyist leading, but the mix. Evan Bayh cast the deciding vote for Obamacare, clear choice between a Marine who lives in Indiana and repre- Glynn announces for 5th CD sents the interests of Hoosiers, and a lobbyist who lives Hamilton County Councilman Fred Glynn an- in two Washington, D.C., mansions and only looks out for nounced his campaign to become the Republican nominee himself.” to Indiana’s 5th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Indiana Democrats pushed back, saying, that Representatives (Howey Politics Indiana). U.S. Rep. Susan Young is “more interested in scoring political points with Brooks resigned her nomination on July 15 to run for the the national party than getting work done for Indiana. His open gubernatorial nomination. Glynn lives in Carmel, party agenda caused the government shutdown, threat- is a husband and father of an 11-year-old daughter. He ened health care for Hoosiers, and would have privatized earned his degree from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Uni- Social Security while turning Medicare into a voucher versity. Glynn has spent his career in the private sector program. and is a salesperson and mortgage consultant. He has been active in Republican politics for many years. Prior to Bayh launches tour today being elected to the county council, he served in several Bayh will launch the “Freedom, Security and Page 13 roles, including precinct committeeman, state convention few weeks. The recount director assured that the commis- delegate, chairman of the Carmel Young Republicans, and sion is working “as fast as they can.” county coordinator to Mike Pence’s 2012 campaign for Drake and Orentlicher are separated by a mere governor. “I have a proven history of building consensus 51 votes, less than 1/10th of a percent of the total ballots around conservative ideas,” Glynn said. “It’s not enough cast. Drake, who currently holds the lead, has said that to sit back and argue, we need someone in Congress the recount has hurt his ability to campaign and that “ev- who can actually build the kind of relationships that will ery day that goes by is another day we lose to make our turn conservative principles into legislation that grows our case.” economy, protects our communities, and unleashes the The former state representative has been frustrat- power of our people.” Glynn cites the economy and feder- ed throughout the process and has called out Orentlicher alism among the issues he is most passionate about. “The for stopping him from turning the district from red to blue. federal budget is growing exponentially which is literally Orentlicher has remained patient and believes that “by mortgaging our children’s future.” Glynn said. “We have an the time voters are paying attention” the recount will be overreaching federal government that wants to interject completed and he will be able to campaign effectively. itself into every area of our lives.” A matter of dispute between the two parties was whether or not to have a pre-recount inspection in the 8th CD recount underway counties involved in order to have a better sense of what Progress is being made in the recount of the 8th the commission will be dealing with. The commission and CD Democratic primary between Ron Drake and David Orentlicher had pushed for a pre-inspection in all coun- Orentlicher, but Recount Director Phil Sicusso told HPI he ties but Drake only agreed to inspections in a handful of “wouldn’t hazard a guess” as to when the recount would counties, saying that the extra days would slow down the be completed. process. The recount started last Thursday and has already Sicuso told HPI that the pre-recount inspection proceeded through three counties, including Vigo county; helped to “speed up the process and allowed the parties to the second largest in the 21 county district. Sicuso expect- cut a few unnecessary steps from the recount; it was help- ed to get through three or six counties next week and that ful.” v there should be “some pretty quick movement” in the next Page 14

trouble for Gregg. Republican pollster Christine Matthews Gregg regroups said Pence not being on the ballot leaves Gregg in a canoe without paddle. “Not having Pence at the top of the ticket, I think will ensure a Republican governor,” she said. after Pence exit In a May poll, Matthews’ Bellwether Research By MAUREEN HAYDEN found Pence’s approval rating had fallen to 40 percent, CNHI Statehouse Bureau with only 36 percent saying he merited reelection. Much INDIANAPOLIS – Democrat John Gregg met with of the unhappiness came from independents and moder- an influential group of black pastors on Monday with plans ate Republicans, groups that Gregg said he’s still working to sell them on his jobs and education proposals, two big hard to woo. In a Statehouse dominated by Republicans, a items in his standard pitch. Democrat hasn’t held the governor’s office since 2004. Their first question wasn’t about his campaign Gregg sees himself in a stronger position now for governor but instead what he thought of Gov. Mike than where he was four years ago, when he lost to Pence Pence’s debut as Donald Trump’s running mate on “60 by less than tthree percentage points. His statewide televi- Minutes” the night before. “I didn’t even know he was on sion ads, for example, went up in May this year. Back in ‘60 Minutes,’” Gregg responded with exasperation. “I’m too 2012, he couldn’t afford TV ads until the fall. laser-focused on my campaign.” As of July 1, Gregg had already raised $8.6 million, $2 mil- The former speaker of lion more than he spent on the 2012 campaign in total. the state House of Representa- On Tuesday, the Democratic Governors Associa- tives, now making his second tion announced it was pouring another $500,000 into the bid for governor, wishes others Gregg campaign, saying the now-open seat leaves him in a were, too. Instead, in what Gregg stronger position. But even in making the announcement, described as a “media frenzy,” Elizabeth Pearson, the association’s director, raised the much of the attention over the specter of Pence. She said “whichever Republican emerges last week has focused on his will be saddled with Pence’s baggage.” former opponent’s departure from Ball State University political science professor the governor’s race.The cam- Joe Losco said Gregg has work to do to disconnect his paign is now awash in speculation campaign from an anti-Pence message. “He’s got to show over who the GOP’s hand-picked Hoosiers his campaign is about more than just one indi- replacement for Pence will be. vidual. That’s pretty darn hard right now, since he doesn’t As the governor flew on a private jet to Cleveland know yet who’s going to oppose him,” he said. to attend the Republican National Convention, where he Aspirants for the role have until 72 hours before was scheduled to speak Wednesday night, Gregg was the state Republican committee meets to make their ambi- telling reporters back home that his campaign strategy is tions known. Though Holcomb, Brooks and Rokita have locked in place. “I’ve always been running for governor emerged as front-runners, none has the cash on hand that and never running against Mike Pence,” he said. “And Gregg does. As of late June, both Brooks and Rokita each that’s what I’ll be doing, if it was Mike Pence or whomever had just over $1 million in campaign funds that could be the Republicans pick in their smoke-filled back room.” transferred to the governor’s race. Holcomb had just over Pence’s move last week to join Trump’s presiden- $20,000 left from earlier run for U.S. Senate – a race he tial ticket, and pull his name from the state ballot, touches abandoned when he was appointed lieutenant governor to off an historic event. For the first time, the 22-member fill the post vacated by Sue Ellspermann. Republican State Central Committee will choose the party’s Losco said money is likely to come rolling in nominee for governor. The committee is scheduled to meet once a nominee is picked. That could include money from July 26. Pence, who had more $7 million in campaign cash when Already committee members, many of whom he left the race. are in Cleveland for the GOP’s national convention, are None of the three top contenders has the kind of being wooed by three leading candidates to replace Pence. name recognition that Pence had with voters, but each They are Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb and U.S. Reps Todd Rokita could appeal to Republican committee members for differ- and Susan Brooks. ent reasons. Whoever fills the slot will force Gregg to make Holcomb is a well-liked former party chairman. adjustments. He’s been critical of the first-term gover- Rokita is a former secretary of state. Both are seen as nor during his campaign. Gregg supporters have littered willing to carry on with Pence’s fiscal conservatism. Brooks, Pence-related appearances with “Fire Mike Pence” signs, in a former U.S. attorney, could make inroads with women, hopes of tapping a public mood that is measurably down whom Pence alienated with his record on social issues. on Pence. Gregg has distanced himself from the mantra. “Gregg is now a known commodity,” Losco said. “Those were never our signs,” he said Monday. “Whoever it is will have their work cut out for them.” v Still, some see the loss of Pence from the race as Page 15

and after conventions in elections from 1988 to 2012 to What to expect from examine this question. We included any survey that was taken with at least one day inside of the week before or GOP convention bounce after the convention (e.g. if a convention began Aug. 14, a survey taken through Aug. 7 was included). To get a gen- By GEOFFREY SKELLEY eral picture of the polling situation prior to the convention, CLEVELAND – The convention bounce is a long- we found the median poll percentage for a candidate from established pattern in presidential election cycles. Much the included surveys. Then, to see what the maximum has been written about it, so we won’t rehash it too much. bounce was for a candidate, we took the median survey The main point is that conventions almost always gener- figure for three or more poll samples in the week imme- ate an increase in a nominee’s polling numbers during and diately following the final day of the convention. See the after his or her convention, but often times the bounce Table 1 notes for further information on the methods used. is short-lived. Still, some of that jump in the polls can be Prior to 1988, there was difficulty finding enough polling maintained; in this environment, a poll bounce will prob- data that met the timing criteria, so ably signal increased party unity. that’s why we stuck with the 1988 This is what is important for Donald to 2012 timetable. The reason for Trump and Hillary Clinton: The for- looking at the median result rather mer needs to get his support among than the average was to reduce Republicans up to and beyond 90% the impact of outliers in small-sized samples while try- in the polls (he’s currently in the 80%-85% range) and ing to isolate the timing of the bounce. This is surely an the latter needs Sanders supporters, many of whom self- imperfect exercise because of the variability in polling, but identify as independents, to more firmly back her (most nonetheless it’s another way to look at this phenomenon. surveys have shown a sizable chunk of Sanders voters still Overall, the data show that all candidates have outside Clinton’s camp). received at least some bounce. The largest median bounce It should surprise no one if Trump gains in surveys in the 1988-2012 period was technically ’s 1992 following the Republican confab. In fact, as we said when jump in the polls, but that was mostly a result of Ross reacting to Trump’s choice of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as Perot’s exit from the race on July 16, the final day of that his running mate, it’s quite possible that Trump will sur- year’s DNC. Outside of that understandable outlier, the pass Clinton in the poll averages. And Clinton will probably next-highest median bounce was George H.W. Bush’s get her own bounce after her nomination is made official 10-point increase in 1988, which helped him catch up to in Philadelphia. Michael Dukakis, who had led him for months. On the low So what kind of end, Romney’s median bounce should we expect poll increased just two for Trump and Clinton? For percentage points from its two reasons, it’s a fairly pre-convention position. complicated question for As referred to above, that Trump: First, the Demo- year’s RNC was immedi- cratic National Convention ately followed by the DNC, immediately follows the just as it is this cycle. That Republican National Con- factor, plus a bizarre Clint vention, which may stifle Eastwood speech involv- Trump’s uptick to some ing an empty chair that extent, as it may have hurt completely overshadowed ’s bounce in the nominee’s speech, 2012. And second, Clinton may have contributed to a is expected to announce less-than-stellar rise in the her vice presidential selec- polls. tion on Friday or Saturday, The median a very obvious attempt to change for both par- eat into Trump and the ties over the 1988-2012 GOP’s news cycle. is relatively similar: 5.0 But we can look for the Democrats (not back at recent cycles to including the unusual 1992 at least get some idea of case) and 4.5 for the GOP. what’s been a “typical” However, there does seem bounce. The Crystal Ball to have been a smaller has collected polls before bounce in recent times Page 16 compared to earlier in the 24-year period. This trend may him at 41% of the vote. If he were to get the median well be meaningless, or it might be connected to the in- Republican bounce seen in the past seven cycles, it would creased polarization of American politics that has left more push him up to 45.5%. Depending on the polling average, voters already firmly entrenched in their party’s camp Trump’s post-primary high has been 42%-43%, so a jump earlier on. That hypothesis may be tested this year consid- to 45% or so would represent a new high for the now- ering the relatively low combined percentage (84%-85%) official GOP nominee. held by Clinton and Trump in the polling averages, which At the same time, Trump could potentially suffer means that they may have more room to grow. from the same problem as Romney due to the back-to- More often than not, the highest median poll back nature of the party conventions. If that happens, we bounce has appeared in the first day or two of three-poll would expect his ballooning poll numbers to quickly dis- samples. Of course, this makes intuitive sense if polling sipate after the initial round of post-convention surveys are bounces tend to fade at least to some degree, but it’s also released. The size of Trump’s poll bounce -- and Clinton’s true when we particularly isolate data down to a one- or -- will be an important factor in measuring the success of two-day median, as in most data points in this set. the conventions.v For Trump, the pre-convention poll median pegged

sixth in the state in the average annual growth of non- A 3% shift in farm earnings over the past 30 years (7%), but 47th (4.3%) in the growth rate for personal income. This disparity is caused by large numbers of personal income Toyota employees not living in Gibson County. In sum, 48 By MORTRON MARCUS of our 92 counties saw faster growth of non-farm income INDIANAPOLIS – Back in the Reagan era (1984), than they saw in the growth of total personal income. as we emerged from the recession of those years, 73 of Some, but not all, of this is caused by people choosing Indiana’s personal income was generated by non-farm to live away from their places of work. In other cases, employment. In this Obama era (2014), as we emerged however, limited working opportunities in the home county from what we call the Great Recession, non-farm jobs ac- caused people to find work where they could. counted for 70% of personal income. Fayette County, once a manufacturing center, Many will dismiss three percent- saw non-farm earnings rise by only 1% on average over age points as trivial, but that’s about the past 30 years, the slowest growth rate in Indiana. $8 billion of 2014 income for Hoo- Nonetheless, Fayette managed a 3.3% average increase siers. in total personal income during those years with help from This shift of income is increased commuting and rising safety net payments. accompanied by an increase in the Thus, the increased mobility of the workforce share of personal income represented plays a major role in the fortunes of counties. This would by government transfer payments be further increased if all of our counties enjoyed high- (Social Security, Medicare and Med- speed Internet service and employment could be more icaid payments, plus Unemployment dispersed. Compensation). In the U.S., this Interestingly, the much ballyhooed Regional Cities increase was about 3% over the past program explicitly did not address the connectivity of com- 10 years and 5% in the Hoosier state. As of 2014, nearly munities. Soft amenities for an imagined millennial work- 20% of Indiana’s personal income was derived from gov- force were encouraged while transit and communication ernment transfers. infrastructure development was explicitly excluded from This is a core issue in our nation, particularly in consideration. this election year. Government transfer payments are con- This bias is found as well among some mem- sidered by many people as excessive burdens imposed on bers of the economic development community. They now higher income people by elderly, low income voters. At the demand focus on upper-middle class values rather than same time, these government transfers are seen by those better pay for the numerous Hoosiers laboring in lower with little wealth as necessary components of a social paid jobs. v safety net readily afforded by a wealthy nation. But there are other changes occurring within Mr. Marcus is an economist, writer, and speaker and among Indiana counties. Take Gibson County, for who may be reached at mortonjmarcus@yahoo. example. Most Hoosiers recognize the tremendous impact com. Toyota had on this southwestern county. Gibson ranked Page 17

officers are trained how to interact with people of all races Buncich, Cook County and religions. While the two are reacting to the circumstances of the day, they also may have political ambitions for the sheriff form a bond future. Dart was keenly interested in running for mayor of By RICH JAMES Chicago, but backed away when Rahm Emanuel moved MERRILLVILLE – Lake County Sheriff John Bun- cich and Cook County (Ill.) Sheriff Tom Dart are taking their cooperation to new levels in the wake of the national tragedies of police shooting innocent blacks and blacks shooting police. At the heart of that effort, according to the two sheriffs, will be an increased effort to go after gang members who ignore state lines as they seek to control the distribution of drugs. And foremost among the two-state effort is to reduce the gun traffic from Indiana to , Dart said. Most of the illegal gun traffic originates at gun shows held quarterly at the Lake County Fairgrounds. The gun back to Chicago and ran. He also has had thoughts about show loophole allows unlicensed dealers to sell firearms to going after the governor’s mansion. those not legally allowed to possess firearms. Buncich is in his second and final term as sheriff. “Indiana is the number two source of guns we He earlier served two terms. Whether Buncich will seek a find at our crime scenes in Chicago,” Dart said. “It’s stupid different office is unclear. Word is that he could be offered not to be aware of the fact gangs could care less about a position in the administration of John Gregg if Gregg is borders. As a matter of fact, they like them because tradi- elected governor. v tionally (police) jurisdictions don’t have the ability to cross borders.” Rich James has been writing about state and local Buncich said gangs have become an even greater government and politics for more than 30 years. problem since their members have moved to public hous- ing in Lake County following the closure of the same type of housing in Cook County. Attacking crime is just part of the focus, the two sheriffs said. Buncich said his department is plan- ning programs to help prevent chil- dren from joining gangs for a variety of reasons, including peer pressure, money and protection. That program will work through the administration of Gary Mayor Karen Freeman-Wil- son. Given what is happening across the country in terms of police and blacks, Buncich said he is work- ing to build trust between police departments and groups such as Black Lives Matter. Buncich said, “I’ve had meetings with the NAACP and other minority groups throughout our county.” Buncich also said he will lead an effort to make sure police Page 18

Chris Deaton, Weekly Standard: In other news, the United States, together we will make America great Indiana governor Mike Pence accepted the Republican again,” Pence said as he closed out his 30-minute speech. nomination for vice-president Wednesday night. On a night It was a strong national introduction for Pence, who is traditionally reserved for the number-two person on the largely unknown outside of Indiana. But Pence’s big mo- ticket, it was the number-two finisher in the GOP primary, ment was overshadowed to a large extent by the ugly Ted Cruz, who headlined the activity inside Quicken Loans scene that took place on the convention floor just an hour Arena, inciting a karaoke chorus of boos with remarks before. The thousands of delegates who gathered in the that encouraged Republicans to vote their conscience. Quicken Loans Arena booed Cruz off the stage after he Pence, on the other hand, was tame and low-key—and, declined to endorse Trump after their bitter rivaly during for Donald Trump’s purposes, on key. “The choice could the primary campaign. The speech had appeared to be not be made more clear. Americans can elect someone building toward an endorsement until Cruz told the crowd, who literally personifies the failed establishment in Wash- “vote your conscience.” Delegates were stunned, and ington, D.C., or we can choose a leader who will fight some began to shout and jeer. Security moved quickly to every day to make America great again,” the Hoosier chief escort Cruz’s wife, Heidi Cruz, out of the area. The Trump executive and former congressman said during a steady campaign is hoping Pence, a staunch social conservative speech, doubtlessly a welcome change from Melania who spent more than a decade on Capitol Hill, will help Trump’s plagiarism controversy on Monday and the Cruz unify the party behind his candidacy. Pence made his eye-opener Wednesday. He introduced himself to vot- case on Wednesday night, describing Trump as a man of ers with a touch of self-deprecation mostly missing from character who is deeply committed to his family and those the personality-driven campaign. Trump is “a man known who rely on him as a businessman.He argued that Trump for a large personality, a colorful style, and had attracted millions of new voters to the party during lots of charisma,” Pence said, “so I guess he the primary process and would make inroads was looking for some balance on the ticket.” among black and Hispanic voters. And he struck That certainly comes in the form of the mild- the same populist tone that has helped propel mannered Pence, who lacks the attack-dog Trump from political gadfly to GOP nominee. mentality of his one-time VP contenders Chris “Donald Trump gets it. He’s the genuine article,” Christie and but professes a Pence said. “He’s a doer in a game reserved for traditional, three-pillared conservatism with a talkers. He doesn’t tiptoe around the thousands restrained delivery. “I’m a Christian, a conservative, and a of new rules of political correctness. He’s his own man and Republican, in that order,” Pence said Wednesday, an at- he’s distinctly American. Where else would an independent titude he’s taken throughout his career. His track has taken spirit like him find a following than in the land of the free him from a broadcast booth in Indiana to the halls of Con- and the home of the brave?” v gress in the nation’s capital, then to the statehouse in the Hoosier heartland and finally to Trump’s side at the GOP Stephen Stromberg, Washington Post: convention in Cleveland. He focused much of his message Who would have thought a year ago that the man who Wednesday on next week’s activity in Philadelphia, where would emerge from the 2016 Republican National Conven- Hillary Clinton will accept the Democratic party’s nod for tion looking best would be Ted Cruz. Yes, the Ted Cruz president. v who shut down the government in 2013 to make a lousy point. The Ted Cruz that everyone in the Senate seems to Jonathon Easley, The Hill: Indiana Gov. Mike despise. The Ted Cruz whom former House speaker John Pence forcefully made the case for a Donald Trump presi- Boehner (R-Ohio) called “Lucifer in the flesh,” and people dency in a highly anticipated speech to the Republican largely seemed to get why. Cruz strode on stage Wednes- National Convention on Wednesday night that was over- day night and offered the closest thing to a non-endorse- shadowed by a surreal incident involving Ted Cruz. Pence, ment of a Republican nominee that the GOP has seen in the GOP’s vice presidential nominee, thrilled the crowd in a generation of party conventions, totally overshadow- Cleveland with direct hits against Democrat Hillary Clinton ing Mike Pence, the Republicans’ inert vice-presidential and at times flashed a self-deprecating sense of humor. He nominee and alleged Wednesday night headliner. Cruz was confident and tan, standing easily against a light blue congratulated Donald Trump on winning the presidential background that matched his tie and smiling as the crowd nomination and he made a nod to some Trumpian policy burst into chants of “we like Mike!” Speaker Paul Ryan (R- priorities, airing some mild skepticism of trade deals. Then, Wis.) introduced Pence with a glowing review of his time in the part of the speech where his endorsement might in Congress and executive experience in Indiana. Trump have been expected, he said instead: “We deserve lead- joined his running mate on stage as the crowd sent them ers who stand for principle, who unite us all behind shared off with a standing ovation. “We have but one choice, and values, who cast aside anger for love. That is the standard that man is ready. This team is ready, our party is ready, we should expect from everybody.” This does not sound and when we elect Donald Trump the 45th president of like a description of Trump. v Page 19

Texans not to write-in his name on the is the ultimate clutch performer, the Cruz’s RNC ballot. “I am watching, I am listen- man with ice water in his veins in cru- ing. The standard I intend to apply is cial moments. He believes, as he has gambit backfires which candidate I trust to defend the said throughout the campaign, that he Constitution. … I’m going to be listen- is a winner — capable of dominating CLEVELAND—Ted Cruz is ing to Donald’s speech tonight. I’m in any setting. What awaits him Thurs- on the defensive after he gambled going to be listening to how he and day night, however, is no “Apprentice” his political career on the campaign conduct them- moment. It is reality TV at the highest refusing to endorse selves every day between now level — as serious and critical a test as Donald Trump, with and November.” He added, like he has faced during the 13 months he key allies turning on he said last night, “Every one has been a candidate. He’ll be judged him and members of of us has to follow our con- in ways he hasn’t been evaluated his home-state delega- before, and likely by a larger audience tion questioning his science.” than any so far. motives (Washington Post). After his dramatic prime-time speech here last Christie blasts night to the Republican convention, after which he left the stage to loud ‘selfish’ Cruz boos and was then refused entry into CLEVELAND — Chris Christie an angry Sheldon Adelson’s suite, the did not mince words for Ted Cruz after runner-up for the nomination came the senator refused to endorse under friendly fire during a surreal Donald Trump on the prime-time con- Texas delegation breakfast (Washing- vention stage Wednesday night (Po- ton Post). As some chanted “Trump, litico). “It was an awful, selfish speech Trump, Trump,” Cruz argued that the by someone who tonight, through the less courageous route would have words he said on that stage, showed been to skip the convention. He said everybody why he has richly earned he called Trump three days ago to say the reputation that he has on Capitol he wouldn’t endorse him. “Why not,” Trumps ‘air kiss’ Hill,” Christie said to reporters on the someone yelled from the crowd. “I’m floor of the convention. happy to answer that, but I won’t en- of Pence goes viral gage in a screaming fight,” the sena- Trump faces CLEVELAND— Donald Trump’s tor replied. “In that speech last night, attempts to show affection for Mike I did not say a single negative word massive challenge Pence -- and the Indiana governor’s about Donald Trump,” Cruz insisted, apparent resistance with a stiff arm speaking carefully. “This morning and CLEVELAND — Donald Trump -- led to an “air kiss” from the Re- going forward, I don’t intend to say has left himself with a mighty chal- publican presidential nominee to his negative things about Donald Trump. lenge for the final day of the Republi- running mate Wednesday. The ex- The media would love me too. … I can National Convention. After three change between the two men who are started the speech by congratulating days of tumult and controversy, the still getting to know each other was Donald Trump for winning the nomi- success — or not — of the week now teased on social media. In the hour nation—by name. … In that speech depends even more heavily than it after the final Republican National last night I asked conservatives … not should on his performance Thurs- Committee speech ended Wednesday, [to] stay home in November.” Then day night (Balz, Washington Post). searches for “air kiss” spiked 2,800%, he pointed to his non-endorsement as Trump might not have it any other according to data from Google. proof of his anti-establishment bona way. Maybe this was always part of Pence’s close friend Rep. Jeb Hensar- fides, and he said it was “dismaying” the plan, to create the drama and ling joked about the exchange Thurs- that some Trump supporters booed heighten the stakes ahead of his ac- day on CNN’s “New Day.” “There’s an him as he talked about the need to ceptance speech. After all, the cam- embrace but nah ... They’re not doing defend the Constitution. “This isn’t paign has always been about him. it that way in Indiana,” the Texas just a team sport. We don’t just put He’s the candidate, chief strategist, Republican told CNN’s Chris Cuomo. on red jerseys and blue jerseys,” he communications director and opposi- “Maybe they’re doing it that way in said. “This is about principles and tion researcher all wrapped up in one New York. So there’s a little difference standing for what I believe in.” Asked unlikely package. Thursday night, he in the style.” if he’ll vote for Trump, Cruz was non- must also be seen as a possible presi- committal but did say that he will not dent. No doubt Trump is confident vote for Hillary Clinton. He asked the about Thursday. By his own boasts, he