Kuzmin ICAS 2014
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THE CONTRI BUTION OF DIFFERENT COUNTRIES TO AIRPLANE DEVELOPMENT AND MANUFACTURE – PART II. HOW MANY AIRPLANES WERE THERE? Yuri V. Kuzmin Russian Academy of Science, Institute for the History of Science and Technology Abstract [1] – [3] is not because of mistakes, but because How many airplanes were made during 20 th of different methods of counting. Unfortunately century in the world? What were contributions it’s too rare case when authors describe their of great aviation countries? Were airplanes calculation methods in details. used for the war or peace? And reader should be vigilant. For What materials and aerodynamic schemes example, in the great book [4] 301 Breese were used? And when the aviation turned from Penguins are counted as airplanes. But it is just the cutting-edge to just consumer technology? ground trainers absolutely unable to fly. That’s what this report is about. Sometimes it is difficult to divide, for example, airplanes and sailplanes. In many USA books transport and trainer gliders used by How to count airplanes? USAF are added to the airplanes. For example, 253 TG-5 gliders often added to the total production of Aeronca airplanes. Is there any problem? Yes. How many airplanes were built in the world? And how will we count? There are a lot of figures in hundreds books, but I’ve decided not to use total figures of they differs drastically. others but to collect a data about ALL world’s Just one question: how many aircraft airplanes independently, including technical were produced in Germany in 1939 -1941? data, purpose and production year-by-year. Three authoritative authors [1], [2], [3] give us The preferences of this method are evident. very different numbers (see Fig.1). You may get a lot of aggregated reports concerning any countries, periods, type of Fig.1. Aircraft production in Germany during 1939-1941 according to [1], [2], [3] aircraft. 16000 If to add (and I did) quantitative data about masses, sizes, speed, power and so on and a 14000 qualitative data about aerodynamic scheme and 12000 construction details, you may also measure and 10000 airplane evolution in any period and in any 1 8000 2 country numerically. 3 6000 The lack of this approach is also evident. It is very, very, VERY time consuming. But… 4000 I’ve spent about 15 years and finally counted 2000 almost all airplanes. 0 1939 1940 1941 There are about 16000 airplane modifications in my database. Only flying, powered, manned vehicles heavier than air with The problem is that the method of the lift created by fixed wings were counted. calculations is not always evident. In my opinion the main difference between data of 1 Yuri V. Kuzmin More than 8000 bibliographic sources were 2.1 The contribution of different countries used, including data from Russian archives. Aircraft industry is very, very centralized. Only Only unclassified sources were applied. six countries manufactured more than 90% of Also there are data about more than 14000 airplanes: USA, USSR/Russia, UK, France, events, 6000 persons, 4000 aviation engines and Germany and Japan. many more. All others produced only about 9%. And there are such well known aviation countries Is it accurate? like Brazil, Canada, China, Czech, Italy, I’ve made a lot of checks are my Netherland, Poland, Sweden – and just 9%! calculation accurate or not. Of course, I The greatest among other great aviation compare a list of aircrafts with other known powers is USA. It’s really flying country: 4/9 of lists: ‘Jane’s all the world’s aircraft’ yearbooks, all airplanes in the world were built there. Boris Shavrov’s books, online sources [5], [6] The total production in 20 century is and others. Here is just one example: the (thousands of airplanes): comparison of my data with the NASM data USA 907 concerning the cumulative production of USSR, Russia 325 airplanes in USA (Fig.2). The difference is UK 248 within 1.5 %. Germany 196 According to my estimates more than 96% France 129 airplanes now are counted in the database. Japan 94 Data collection will be continued and I Other 190 hope to present even more accurate results in th nearest future. Fig.3. Airplane production by countries in 20 century. Here and later USSR means USSR or Russia. Fig.2. Cumulative production of airplanes in USA from 9,1% 1913 till 1993 according NASM data (blue), my data (red) 4,5% and the difference (green) USA USSR 900000 9,4% 800000 UK 43,4% 700000 FRA 600000 6,2% GER 500000 JAP 400000 Other 300000 11,9% 200000 100000 15,5% 0 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 So the first summary is: NASM data My data Difference • only 6 countries contributed more than 90% of aircraft production; Very few results will be presented in my • the greatest aviation power is USA – report. But I’m sure they will be interesting and, about 4/9 of total production. may be, intriguing. • the second place belongs to USSR + Russia. 2 How many airplanes were built in the world in 20 th century? 2.2 Year by year airplane production in different countries The answer is: about 2.1 million exemplars. Now let us look on this figure in details. Some It’s sad, but the main motivation to develop and data were first published by author in [7]. to build airplanes were wars, primarily two World Wars. In 1941-1945 740 thousands 2 The contri bution of different countries to airplane development and manufacture – Part II. How many airplanes were there? aircraft were built. It’s more than 35% of the After the World War 2 aircraft century production and 7 times more an average production has stabilized on the level of 40000 value. 8.5% more were produced during 1916- per year up to the beginning of the 1980 th . 20 years (Fig.4). Fig.6. Same as Fig.4 but from1946 for better view. Fig.4. Airplane production by countries in 20 th century 120000 by five-year periods 100000 700000 80000 Other JAP 600000 GER Other 60000 FRA 500000 JAP UK GER 400000 USSR 40000 FRA USA UK 300000 USSR 20000 200000 USA 100000 0 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 0 th 1906-10 1911-15 1916-20 1921-25 1926-30 1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 But it the 1980 the next reduction has happen. There were several reasons: the oil One may see the pike of the First World prices, the new law restrictions for private War and the huge reduction in the beginning of flying, the decreasing of combat aircraft 1920 th . Than the number of airplanes grows up number, the increasing of helicopter production quickly up to the World War 2. (we speak only about airplanes – not about all During 1941-1945 USA produced 325.5 aircraft)… thousands of aircraft – it is equal to the total We just state that in 80 th there was a big issue in USSR, UK and Germany together. reduction, and only about 40000 airplanes were The distribution of manufacturing by built in 1990 th – the usual annual production for countries during the war (Fig.5) is similar to 1960-1970 th . Fig.3, but fractions of USSR, Germany and This decrease in output has affected all Japan are bigger. It shows the great stress to the aviation countries: USA, USSR and Europe. For economics of mentioned countries. French 0.5% example, let us see Fig.7 – airplane production are the airplanes built under German in USSR from 1976 to 1990. supervision and few exemplars constructed after the liberation. Fig.7. Airplane production in late USSR 2000 35000 1800 Fig.5. Airplane production by countries, 1941-45 30000 1600 3,5% 7,3% 1400 25000 1200 20000 1000 USA 13,4% 15000 800 Tons per year Tons per USSR year per Airplanes 600 44,1% 10000 UK 400 0,5% 5000 FRA 200 0 0 GER 11,8% 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Airplanes Tons JAP Other The reduction in USSR has happened 19,5% not because of ‘Perestroika’ but earlier, in Andropov and Chernenko’s (Soviet leaders) times, in 1982 – 1985 years. Contrary to popular belief in Gorbachev’s times (1986 – 1990) the 3 Yuri V. Kuzmin annual production was roughly on the one level. During this time huge series of Mig-15/17, Il- The reduction was described by author in [8]. 28, Tu-16 and other combat aircraft were built. One may say that the reduction was because of production switch to more modern Fig.8. Airplane production by different countries in 20 th and more complicated airplanes. century (fractions) by five-year periods But in the Fig.7 there is not only 100% quantity of produced airplanes is shown but also 90% their total net mass: I suppose that labor content, 80% 70% Other JAP consumption of materials and total cost is 60% GER approximately proportional to the mass of 50% FRA UK airplane construction. And yes, the database 40% USSR permits us to build such graphs also. 30% USA You may see that both the quantity and 20% total mass of airplanes has been reduced. 10% 0% Summary: 1906-10 1911-15 1916-20 1921-25 1926-30 1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 • th 35% of 20 century airplane production were done in 1941-45, 8,5% more – in But after that the ultimate success came 1916-20 because of the World Wars.