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The Financial Impact of Terrorism on West European Markets

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The Financial Impact of Terrorism on West European Markets School of Economics and Management The financial impact of terrorism on West European markets Master Thesis Student name: Koen van Uden Student number: 1266258 Supervisor: dr. K.K. Nazliben Second reader: dr. F. Castiglionesi Submission date: August 2018 Abstract The main focus of this paper is to study the financial impact of terrorism on West European markets. The dataset examined includes 69 terrorist attacks that targeted West European countries over an 18-year time period. An event study approach is used to measure the event day en post-event day reaction of national indexes and industries to terrorism. The results show that the average attack negatively affects the West European market by -0.2%, this impact is only transitory since the results show a significant positive 10-day cumulative abnormal returns. Terrorist attacks with more than 100 casualties have an even more negative impact on the West European markets and are more likely to have a permanent impact. The attacked country suffers the most financial damage and this damage is permanent. The results show that all industries experience negative abnormal returns on the day of the event, two industries show significant results. The oil, gas and water industry is struck the most and is the only one to be permanently damaged. Furthermore, plausible explanations for the results are discussed from a behavioural finance perspective. Keywords: Terrorism; Financial markets; Event study methodology; Reversal effect; Investor sentiment 2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Literature Review .............................................................................................................................. 7 3. Hypotheses ....................................................................................................................................... 18 3.1 Hypothesis – Event day ............................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Hypothesis – Post-event .............................................................................................................. 19 3.3 Hypothesis – Struck country ....................................................................................................... 20 3.4 Hypothesis – Industry analysis .................................................................................................... 21 4. Data and Methodology .................................................................................................................... 22 4.1 Data ............................................................................................................................................. 22 4.1.1 Terrorism .............................................................................................................................. 22 4.1.2 Exchange Markets ................................................................................................................ 23 4.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 25 4.2.1 Market reaction – Event day ................................................................................................. 25 4.2.2 Market reaction – Post-event ................................................................................................ 28 4.2.3 Market reaction – Struck country ......................................................................................... 29 4.2.3 Market reaction – Industry analysis ..................................................................................... 30 5. Empirical Research Findings and Discussion ............................................................................... 31 5.1 Results market reaction – Event day ........................................................................................... 31 5.2 Results market reaction – Post-event .......................................................................................... 37 5.3 Results market reaction – Struck country .................................................................................... 41 5.4 Results market reaction – Industry analysis ................................................................................ 44 6. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 47 6.1 Research objectives: Summary of findings and conclusions ....................................................... 47 6.2 Contribution and Recommendations ........................................................................................... 49 6.3 Limitations................................................................................................................................... 50 7. References ........................................................................................................................................ 52 8. Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 56 3 1. Introduction Terrorism is one of the biggest threats to humanity, property and the economy. As this article is written, recent terrorist attacks include the 2017 Barcelona attack, where 16 people were killed and 152 injured, the 2017 London Bridge attacks in which eight people were killed and 48 injured, the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing in which 22 people died and 250 were injured. Terrorism has a significant presence in the life of our society, which cannot be eliminated completely. It creates fear and it evokes negative feelings. The greater the fear the more the uncertainty in the stock market, which negatively affects stock prices. In addition, terrorism negatively influences the mood of an investor, which negatively affects the investing behaviour of an investor. The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START, 2017) states that terroristic activity in West Europe has increased over the last decade, which makes terrorism a very topical field to study. Given that it is easy for investors to buy and sell stocks, the revelation of new information will results in a high sensitivity to their prices. These price changes are observable when unanticipated events occur, especially adverse shocks such as large scale macroterrorism, which are terrorism incidents causing more than $1 billion of loss or 500 deaths (Woo, 2003). For instance, on the day of the September 11 attacks, the MSCI World Index lost 1.98% of its value, even though the U.S. stock market was closed. There has been much written about the direct costs of the September 11 attacks. The International Monetary Fund estimated the total direct cost from short-term effects following the September 11 attacks to be $21.4 billion (Richman, Santos, & Barkoulas, 2005). Lenain, Bonturi and Koen (2002) estimate the combined direct costs of the September 11 attacks for the private sector, the government enterprises and the rescue operations to amount to 27.2 billion USD. However, much less is known about the indirect costs of terrorism. Some have argued that indirect economic costs are driven by a decrease in consumer/investor confidence or other macroeconomic factors (Buesa et al. 2007). Others suggest that it may be driven by fear, which negatively affects investor sentiment and drives down stock prices (Lerner et al. 2003). Ultimately, an understanding of the financial impact of terrorism and the nature of its effects – whether the financial impact is temporary or permanent – is needed for investors to arm themselves against terrorism risk. The objective of this paper is to study the financial impact of terrorist attacks on West European markets. I examine the investors’ reaction to 69 terrorist attacks that targeted Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom that took place in 4 the period 2000 up to and including 2017. This will be done by calculating the abnormal returns of the national indexes of the selected West European countries, using daily data. I expect that the stock price changes will reflect the financial impact of terrorism, since the efficient market hypothesis states that a market in which prices fully reflect available information, prices will change only when new information arrives, such as a terrorist attack. Even if the market does not fully reflect the available information – as suggested by behavioural finance – a terrorist attack might cause a shift in investor sentiment which has as consequence that the stock prices change regardless. This paper is not the first study of the impact of terrorism on stock markets, the majority of previous work focussed on terrorist attacks with a large scale, such as the September 11th attacks (Abadie & Gardeazabal, 2008; Ito & Lee, 2004; Johnston & Nedelescu, 2006). This paper does not only focus on large scale event, but uses multiple terrorist attack from 2000 up to and including 2017. Furthermore, this study does not focus on a single nation or industry as is mainly done in the past (Drakos, 2004; Araña & León, 2008; Enders & Sandler, 1991). This study measures the event day and post-event day market reaction for both the national indexes and the industries. It uses a simplified empirical method to
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