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A Holistic, Risk, and Futures Based Approach to Deception: Technological Convergence and Emerging Patterns of Conflict

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A Holistic, Risk, and Futures Based Approach to Deception: Technological Convergence and Emerging Patterns of Conflict A HOLISTIC, RISK, AND FUTURES BASED APPROACH TO DECEPTION: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE AND EMERGING PATTERNS OF CONFLICT Iain Douglas Reid A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of Lincoln for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy February 2016 Abstract Modern challenges in forensic and security domains require greater insight and flexibility into the ways deception can be identified and responded to. Deception is common across interactions and understanding how mindset, motive and context affects deception is critical. Research has focussed upon how deception manifests in interpersonal interactions and has sought to identify behaviours indicative of truth-telling and deceit. The growth of mediated communication has further increased challenges in ensuring information is credible. Deception in military environments has focussed on planning deception, where approaches have been developed to deceive others, but rarely examined from counter- deception perspectives. To address these challenges this thesis advocates a holistic approach to deception detection, whereby strategies will be tailored to match context. In accordance with an in vivo approach to research, a critical review of literature related to deception and related areas was conducted leading to the initial development of a theoretical holistic model of deception detection comprising a deception framework and an individual differences (deceiver and target) framework. Following model development, validation with Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) was conducted. Explanatory thematic analysis of interviews conducted with SMEs (n=19) led to the development of meta-themes related to the ‘deceiver’, their ‘intent; ‘strategies and tactics’ of deception, ‘interpretation’ by the target and ‘target’ decision-making strengths and vulnerabilities. These findings led to the development of the Holistic Model of Deception, an approach where detection strategies are tailored to match the context of an interaction, whether interpersonal or mediated. Understanding the impact of culture on decision-making in deception detection and in particular the cues used to detect deception in interpersonal and mediated environments is required for understanding human behaviour in a globalised world. Interviews were conducted with Western (n=22) and Eastern (n=16) participants before being subject to explanatory and comparative thematic analysis identified twelve cross- cultural strategies for assessing credibility and one culturally specific strategy used by Western participants. Risk assessment and management techniques have been used to assess risks posed in forensic and security environments; however, such approaches have not been applied to deception detection. The Deception Assessment Real-Time Nexus©2015 and Deception Risk Assessment Technique©2015 were developed as an early warning tool and a Structured Professional Judgement risk assessment and management technique. The Deception Risk Assessment Technique©2015 outlines multiple ways of identifying and managing threats posed by deception and is employable across individuals and groups. In developing the futures-based approach to deception detection, reactive, active and proactive approaches to deception were reviewed, followed by an examination of scenario planning utility and methodology from futures and strategic forecasting research. Adopting the qualitative ‘intuitive logics’ methodology ten scenarios were developed of potential future threats involving deception. Risk assessment of two scenarios was conducted to show the value of a risk assessment approach to deception detection and management. In conclusion, this thesis has developed a Holistic Model of Deception, explored the links between interpersonal and mediated strategies for detecting deception, formulated a risk assessment and management approach to deception detection and developed future scenarios of threats involving deception. Acknowledgements I wish to thank my supervisors Dr Lynsey Gozna and Dr Julian Boon for all their support and encouragement throughout my studies, for developing my interests in deception, applied research, critical thinking and the need to understand what is truly psychological! Thanks to my research sponsors, the University of Lincoln, and in particular, to George Brander for his guidance and advice throughout my studies. On a personal level I wish to thank my family, my parents Robert and Julie, my brother Alisdair, my dog Bracken (for the constant demands for attention and cuddles), and my grandparents Bob and May, Peter and Mavis and Connie for all their support and encouragement throughout my studies – the roast dinners were always a bonus! My friends back home in the south (looking at you Becca Harrison, my fellow aspiring academic!) and my friends across the School of Psychology and the wider PhD community at Lincoln for all the mutual support and adventures together. Contents Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 Introducing and Defining Deception: ........................................................................ 1 Scientist-Practitioner Model: ..................................................................................... 2 Applying Social Science to Defence Science: ........................................................... 3 Overview: ................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 2: Interpersonal Deception. .............................................................................. 6 Introduction: ............................................................................................................... 6 Theories of Deception ................................................................................................ 6 Deceivers’ Strategies ................................................................................................. 7 Why people are bad at detecting lies ......................................................................... 8 Cues to Deception ...................................................................................................... 9 Decision-Making Biases .......................................................................................... 10 Methods of detecting deception ............................................................................... 10 Verbal Deception Detection ................................................................................. 11 Non-Verbal Deception Detection ........................................................................ 12 Differential Recall Enhancement (DRE) Approaches ......................................... 13 Personality and Individual Differences and Deception ........................................... 15 Culture and Deception ............................................................................................. 17 Holistic Approaches: ................................................................................................ 18 The CHAMELEON Approach ................................................................................ 20 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 3: Online Deception and Influence................................................................. 22 Introduction: ............................................................................................................. 22 Forms of online deception: ...................................................................................... 23 Motives for online deception: .................................................................................. 24 Online Communication Strategies: .......................................................................... 24 Online Impression Formation: ................................................................................. 27 Online Deception Detection Strategies: ................................................................... 27 Cross-cultural deception in computer-mediated communication: ........................... 32 Online Adversary Deception and Influence:............................................................ 33 Conclusion: .............................................................................................................. 34 Chapter 4: Military and Strategic Deception ............................................................... 36 Introduction: ............................................................................................................. 36 Theories of Military Deception:............................................................................... 36 Taxonomies of Deception .................................................................................... 37 Deception Planning .............................................................................................. 39 Target Audience Analysis: ....................................................................................... 41 Historical lessons learned: ....................................................................................... 42 Decision-Making Biases: ......................................................................................... 44 Military Deception Detection: ................................................................................. 45 Decision Support
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