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Special Report Republic of Belarus Jannuary 2007

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Special Report Republic of Belarus Jannuary 2007 Special report Republic of Belarus Jannuary 2007 The impact of gas and oil price increase on the Belarusian economy in 2007 1. Current situation According to the provisions of the contract signed with Russian Gazprom, Belarus should buy gas for the two-fold increased price at USD 100/1000m3 in 2007. The price is now the lowest among the former Soviet union states, however it should gradually move up to market rates in the coming years. In parallel, Gazprom will pay the price for 50% of Beltransgaz aquisition within four-years tenor (USD 2.5 bn/4=USD 625 mn. per year). The higher gas price will hit the industrials in 2007 via nearly doubled gas and elec- tricity costs. We estimate that gross additional costs are USD 1.06 bn. However, despite the lowered profitability in general, the industry should be able to bear the increased price. State subsidies to key and high power-consuming enterprises are expected. Late at night on January 12, 2007 Belarus and Russia agreed the custom duty for crude oil exports to Belarus at USD 53 per ton, while earlier Belarus paid none. This fact will create additional costs for oil refineries at around USD 1.05 bn in 2007, lowering their profitability from 30% to 12%. Total losses resulting from the gas price increase and the introduction of custom duty for crude oil exports to Belarus will amount to approximately USD 2.1 bn, or 5% of Belarusian GDP. Key Figures 2003 2004 2005 2006e 2007f 2008f Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 15.5 18.4 23.8 27.6 26.7 27.2 Real GDP (% yoy) 6.8 11.0 9.2 9.6 6.5 6.0 Industrial output (% yoy) 7.1 15.6 10.4 11.5 7.5 7.0 Unemployment rate (avg, %) 3.1 2.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 Nominal wages, whole economy (% yoy) 28.6 31.8 29.5 25.5 21.0 20.0 Producer prices (avg, % yoy) 38.0 24.2 12.1 10.0 11.0 12.0 Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 29.0 18.1 10.3 8.5 9.5 10.0 Analysts Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) 25.0 14.4 8.0 6,6 9.0 12.0 Gerhard Lechner General budget balance (% of GDP) -1.3 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -2.0 -2.0 [email protected] Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -4.4 1.6 -2.3 -5.9 -7.9 Official FX-Reserves (EUR bn) 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 Olga Laschevskaya EUR/BYR (avg) 2336 2687 2677 2694 2926 3245 [email protected] USD/BYR (avg) 2075 2160 2154 2144 2200 2550 Source: Priorbank, Raiffeisen RESEARCH Special report 2. Possible consequences for the GDP and industry weaker in 2007 economy 18 16 We do not change our forecast for GDP growth. 14 We expect a slowdown of growth from 9.9% last 12 year to 6.5% this year. However, the slowdown of 10 growth will have a negative effect on inflation, the current account and on the budget. The budget 8 deficit will rise from a very small deficit of minus 6 0.2% to 2.0%. The biggest deterioration will hap- 4 pen in the trade balance and in the current account. 2 The negative "Terms of Trade" shock should bring 0 a C/A deficit of -5.9% in 2007 (after -2.1% in 2004 2005 2006e 2007f 2008f 2006). In 2008 we expect that the current account will deteriorate again. Inflation is likely to increase Real GDP (% yoy) Industrial output (% yoy) not as much, because the gas price hike will not be Source: Thomson Financial Datastream, Raiffeisen RESEARCH immediately transferred by the full amount to the households (like in the Ukraine 2006). However, Change of the positive CPI trend the trend in the CPI should change until the end of 40.0 the year 2008. We expect that inflation will rise 35.0 again above 10% next year. We also forecast that the unemployment rate will start to climb this year 30.0 and the positive development of FX reserves should 25.0 also be reversed. 20.0 15.0 10.0 3. State Budget 5.0 0.0 The 2007 budget will be burdened with the losses 2003 2004 2005 2006e 2007f 2008f incurred by industrials (- USD 509 mn.) and extra expenditures to subsidize agriculture, energy con- Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) suming industries and households (-USD 1.07 bn.) Producer prices (avg, % yoy) The adjustments to budget revenues which should result from gas transit costs (+USD 61.25 mn.), and Source: Thomson Financial Datastream the first tranche for 12.5% of Beltransgas (+ USD Demand and supply for currency 625 mn.) will bring a deficit of USD 890 mn. Demand Supply Gas price rise USD 1.06 bn. Income from increased gas tran 4. Exchange Rate Forecast sit tariff of USD 61.25 mn. and USD 625 mn. for 12.5% of Beltransgas. The demand for foreign currency is triggered by Oil export customs duties USD USD 500 mn. (36%) of total and could be supplied with (see table on the right): 1.05 bn. Belarusian National Bank's gold and currency reserves The short-term foreign debt can be refinanced via (USD 1.38 bn.) can be used for import reductions implementing administrative bar- currency interventions. riers and growth of foreign state debt (in the long- Negative current account Stabilization fund in USD equiv- term outlook via foreign direct investments). balance (other goods) +10% alent 700-900 mn. However, long-term obligations remain uncovered. vs. 2006 to USD 1.3 bn. Therefore a devaluation of Belarusian Rouble is Demand is not met to inevitable, although the National Bank of Belarus USD 1.5 bn. most probably sticks to the reasonable policy of Source: Priorbank 2 Special report gradual devaluation. We think that the deprecia- Depreciation of the BYR against the USD tion of the Belarusian Rouble will be managed by the National Bank of Belarus. We are also much 2500 more bearish for the BYR after the agreement. 2300 Before we only calculated with a slight deprecia- 2100 tion. The reason for the depreciation is - as men- tioned - the development of the current account and 1900 the problems with the competitive position of the 1700 Belarusian industry. 1500 1300 Forecast 1100 900 May-00 Nov-01 May-03 Nov-04 May-06 Nov-07 USD/BYR Source: Reuters, Raiffeisen RESEARCH Devaluations scenarios for BYR Basic (1) 15-20% 2460/2550 Pessimistic (2) 30% 2800 Official (3) +/-3% 2090-2200 Source: Priorbank, Raiffeisen RESEARCH 3 RZB Group Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG (RZB Austria) Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG, Vienna Raiffeisen Centrobank AG, Vienna Global Markets Equity Capital Markets Head: Martin Czurda Tel: +43 1 71707 1120 Head: Wilhelm Celeda Tel: +43 1 515 20 402 Sales: Hans Rettl Tel: +43 1 71707 3300 Sales: Klaus della Torre Tel: +43 1 515 20 472 Sales: Wolfgang Kalinka Tel: +43 1 71707 3959 Prague: Raiffeisenbank a.s. Belgrade: Raiffeisenbank a.d. Serbia and Montenegro Treasury: Vit Brdlik Tel: +420 221 141 145 Treasury: Zoran Petrovic Tel: +381 11 320 2159 Sales: Michal Michalov Tel: +420 221 141 830 Pristina: Raiffeisen Bank Kosovo JSC Bratislava: Tatra banka, a.s. Treasury: Berat Isa Tel: +381 38 226400 129 Treasury: Dusan Pivka Tel: +421 2 5919 1221 Sales: Milan Cavojec Tel: +421 2 5919 1212 Sarajevo: Raiffeisen BANK d.d. Bosna i Hercegovina Bucharest: Raiffeisen Bank S.A. Treasury: Sanja Korene Tel: +387 33 208 372 Treasury: Cristian Sporis Tel: +40 21 306 1210 Sales: Alin Cirligeanu Tel: +40 21 306 1213 Sofia: Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria) EAD Budapest: Raiffeisen Bank Zrt. Treasury: Evelina Miltenova Tel: +359 2 91985 441 Treasury:Gabor Liener Tel: +36 1 484 4304 Sales: Zsolt Matolcsi Tel: +36 1 484 4840 Tirana: Raiffeisen Bank Sh.a. Albania Kiev: Raiffeisen Bank Aval Treasury: Christian Canacaris Tel: +355 04 25 3646 Treasury: Vladimir Kravchenko Tel: +380 44 490 8808 Sales: Roland Vizner Tel: +380 44 490 8962 Warsaw: Raiffeisen Bank Polska S.A. Maribor: Raiffeisen Krekova banka d.d. Slovenia Treasury: Roman Heimel Tel: +48 22 58 52 600 Treasury: Milena Donaj Tel: +38 62 2293 322 Sales: Lukasz Januszewski Tel: +48 22 58 52 618 Zagreb: Raiffeisenbank Austria d.d. Minsk: Priorbank JSC Belarus Treasury: Ivan Zizic Tel: +385 1 46 95 076 Treasury: Yury Slepich Tel: +375 17 289 9019 Sales: Kresimir Kutlesa Tel: +385 1 46 95 053 Moscow: ZAO Raiffeisenbank Austria Treasury: Sergei Monin Tel: +7 495 721 9922 Sales: Arsen Manoukian Tel: +7 495 721 9978 Editor: This report was completed on 15 January 2007. Raiffeisen RESEARCH GmbH A-1030 Vienna, Am Stadtpark 9 Tel.: +43 1 717 07-1521 Head of Raiffeisen RESEARCH: Peter Brezinschek (1517) This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be repro- duced or redistributed to any other person. Any investment decision with respect to any securities of the respective company must be made on the basis of an offering circular or prospectus approved by such company and not on the basis of this document. RZB may have effected an own account transaction in any investment mentioned herein or related investments and or may have a position or holding in such investments as a result.
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