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Cambridge Sub Region Retail Study October 2008

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Cambridge Sub Region Retail Study October 2008 CAMBRIDGE CITY COUNCIL AND SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE DISTRICT COUNCIL Cambridge Sub-Region Retail Study October 2008 GVA Grimley Ltd 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR 08449 020304 www.gvagrimley.co.uk Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council Cambridge Sub Region Retail Study October 2008 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 2. POLICY CONTEXT .......................................................................................................... 4 3. RETAIL AND LEISURE TRENDS ................................................................................. 13 4. SUB REGIONAL CONTEXT.......................................................................................... 21 5. CAMBRIDGE CITY CENTRE HEALTHCHECK............................................................ 27 6. CAMBRIDGE DISTRICT & LOCAL CENTRES ............................................................ 41 7. SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE RURAL CENTRES......................................................... 47 8. OTHER RETAIL PROVISION........................................................................................ 54 9. LEISURE PROVISION ................................................................................................... 58 10. QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT: BASELINE............................................................... 65 11. QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT: SCENARIO TESTING ............................................. 78 12. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................. 87 Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council Cambridge Sub Region Retail Study October 2008 PLANS Plan 1: Cambridge Sub Region: Study Context Area Plan 2: Study Area and Household Telephone Survey Zones Plan 3: Comparison Goods Expenditure Flow to Competing Centres Plan 4: Cambridge Comparison Goods Market Share Plan 5: Peterborough Comparison Goods Market Share Plan 6: Bury St Edmunds Comparison Goods Market Share Plan 7: Stevenage Comparison Goods Market Share Plan 8: Huntingdon Comparison Goods Market Share Plan 9: Newmarket Comparison Goods Market Share Plan 10: Ely Comparison Goods Market Share Plan 11: Retail Hierarchy: Cambridge City Plan 12: Retail Hierarchy: South Cambridgeshire District Plan 13: Retail Hierarchy with Walk-in Catchments: Cambridge City Plan 14: Retail Hierarchy with Walk-in Catchments: South Cambridgeshire Plan 15: Existing Foodstore Provision: Cambridge City Plan 16: Existing Foodstore Provision: South Cambridgeshire Plan 17: Foodstore Fascias: Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire Plan 18: Existing Foodstores with ten minute drive-time catchments from Large Stores Plan 19: Existing Retail Warehouse Provision Plan 20: Existing Leisure Provision Plan 21: Cambridge City Centre In-Centre Survey: Home Location of Shoppers Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council Cambridge Sub Region Retail Study October 2008 APPENDICES Appendix 1: Competing Centres Appendix 1a: Market Share and Trade Retention Appendix 1b: Retailer Representation Appendix 1c: Key Indicators Appendix 1d: Pipeline Schemes Appendix 1e: Neighbouring Authorities Retail Studies Appendix 2: Cambridge City Centre Health Check Appendix 2a: Key Indicators Appendix 2b: Retailer Requirements Appendix 3: Cambridge City District and Local Centres Proformas and Audits Appendix 4: South Cambridgeshire Rural Centres Proformas and Audits Appendix 5: Capacity Projections: Convenience Goods Appendix 6: Capacity Projections: Comparison Goods Appendix 7: Household Telephone Interview Survey Results Appendix 8: Cambridge In-Centre Survey Results Appendix 9: GVA Grimley Letter to South Cambridgeshire District Council on the Northstowe Proposals Appendix 10: Northstowe Impact Assessment Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council Cambridge Sub Region Retail Study October 2008 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 GVA Grimley was instructed by Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council in 2008 to carry out the Cambridge Sub Region and Northstowe Retail Study to inform retail planning in accordance with guidance set out in Planning Policy Statement 6 (PPS6): Planning for Town Centres. 1.2 This study provides robust and sound baseline evidence to inform the Council’s Local Development Frameworks (LDF) and future Development Plan Documents (DPD) and is a tool for each Council to make informed choices about the nature and extent of retail growth to be accommodated in the future. In particular, it will play a key role in guiding the spatial vision and strategic objectives of the Core Strategy in each local authority in the context of significant population growth over the LDF period, including the new town of Northstowe and a number of urban extensions to Cambridge. 1.3 Based on our research, analysis and overall findings, the study identifies the performance of centres and the quantitative and qualitative need for new retail (comparison and convenience goods) floorspace up to 2011, 2016 and 2021. However, we advise that forecasts beyond a five-year period should be interpreted with caution. We therefore recommend that the assessments be monitored and updated to take account of changes in retail and property market trends, as well as revised spend and population growth projections. Scope 1.4 The scope of the study, as set out in the client’s Brief is to establish a sound evidence base for Local Development Framework retail strategies and policies and to establish whether retail proposals are of a size and mix which are appropriate to new centres, and their place in the retail hierarchy. We have undertaken a thorough audit of the current status of retail activities in the Cambridge sub region and provide detailed information on the likely future demand for such uses up to 2021. Our capacity assessment will specifically provide an estimate of the scale and nature of any changes in the future retail provision in the light of: • Existing and forecast population levels; • Housing and regeneration growth; • Forecast changes in retail expenditure; • Forecast improvements in the productivity and efficiency of retail floorspace; • Changing forms of retail provision; and • Possible increases or decreases in the trade draw from competing centres. 1 Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council Cambridge Sub Region Retail Study October 2008 Approach 1.5 Our approach draws on the emerging recommendations of our Good Practice Guidance for the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) on how to assess the need for, and impact of key town centre uses. Of particular relevance to this study, we have recommended a transparent approach, where the key steps of the analysis, data inputs and assumptions are clearly set out and justified. In accordance with the Good Practice Guidance, our approach is also underpinned by the use of up to date household telephone interviews and in-centre surveys to help establish current shopping and leisure patterns, town centre catchments and market share estimates for both comparison and convenience goods retailing. 1.6 This Study also comprises a thorough overview of the existing retail network and retail hierarchy in each local authority including a detailed audit and qualitative healthcheck of Cambridge city centre. We also assess the relative vitality and viability of the three district centres and 22 local centres in Cambridge and the five rural centres in South Cambridgeshire, drawing where possible; on the key performance indicators set out in PPS6 (paragraph 4.4). Report Structure 1.7 This report draws together the results of our research, incorporating the findings of the detailed survey-based technical analysis and healthcheck assessments. The report is structured as follows:- • Section 2 summarises the national, regional and local policy framework including the current retail hierarchy definitions, relevant to retail planning in the Cambridge sub region. • Section 3 considers current retail trends and specifically the key socio-economic trends which are likely to influence the evolution of retailing in the Cambridge sub region. • Section 4 reviews the sub regional context and in particular the influence of competing centres in the wider sub region, and potential changes in influence in the future. • Section 5 presents our qualitative assessment of the role, attraction and performance of Cambridge city centre. • Section 6 reviews other retail provision in Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire, including large free standing convenience stores and retail warehousing. • Section 7 assesses the vitality and viability of the district and local centres within Cambridge City. • Section 8 provides a review of the health of the five rural centres in South Cambridgeshire. • Section 9 looks at leisure provision across both local authorities focusing on commercial leisure facilities, including cinemas, ten-pin bowling, health and fitness and restaurants, cafés and the evening economy. 2 Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council Cambridge Sub Region Retail Study October 2008 • Section 10 sets out our baseline capacity projections for the sub region, focusing in particular on the capacity for further retail floorspace, with regard to identified commitments. • Section 11 develops the baseline capacity projections to examine the possible policy response. It tests the implications of alternative development scenarios.
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