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Risk, Rail and the Region Risk, Rail and the Region A spatial analysis of regional differences of infrastructural safety and the risk of accidents at Swedish level-crossings Henning Grauers Department of Human Geography Degree 30 HE credits Urban and Regional Planning Master’s Programme in Urban and Regional Planning (120 credits) Spring term 2019 Supervisor: Eva Andersson Risk, Rail and the Region A spatial analysis of regional differences of infrastructural safety and the risk of accidents at Swedish level-crossings Henning Grauers Abstract Level-crossings, i.e. intersections where railways and road meet in the same vertical level, constitute risk for the users of respective infrastructure system. The aim of this thesis is to examine possible regional differences between the infrastructural safety standard of level-crossings in Sweden. With the use of spatial analyses tools in a Geographical Information System, the differences between Swedish counties are outlined and mapped. By the use of a logistic regression model, the variables that increase the risk of an accident in a level-crossings are analysed. The results show that the variables concerning the level of protection, together with the location on a highway, show statistical significance of being associated with an increased accidental risk. The results of the regression model factors have been returned to the GIS in order to find the most hazardous level-crossings. Considering the train flows and amount of people living in the proximity of the crossings, the hotpots of hazards have been spatially identified. 38 level-crossings with passive or semi-active warning system meet the criteria and should be the targets for practitioners’ work towards an increased level of safety and reduced risk. Grauers, Henning (2019). Risk, Rail and the Region. A spatial analysis of regional differences of infrastructural safety and the risk of accidents at Swedish level-crossings. Urban and Regional Planning, advanced level. Master thesis for master’s degree in Urban and Regional Planning, 30 ECTS credits. Supervisor: Eva Andersson Language: English Cover: By author Keywords Level-crossings, infrastructural safety, risk, railway. 1 Terminology and definitions Level-crossing Intersection of road and railway in the same vertical level. Grade-separated crossing Intersection of road and railway in different vertical levels, such as tunnel bridge. STH Största tillåtna hastighet; maximum speed on a of railway track. VMD Vardagsmedeldygn; traffic flow on railways – measured as average number of trains per day. AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic; traffic flow on roads. Active level-crossing Level-crossing equipped an active warning system/level of protection, i.e. boom gates and light/sound signals. Semi-active level-crossing Level-crossing equipped with a semi-active system/level of protection, i.e. light and/or sound signals. Passive level-crossings Level-crossing without an active or semi-active warning system/level of protection, with or without a static warning sign. Boom-gates Barriers that are lowered when a train approaches the level-crossing. Line kilometer Total length of railway tracks. Route kilometer Length on railway route, i.e. double tracks counted as single tracks. Infrastructural safety The level of safety generated by the measures inherent in a piece of infrastructure, installed for reducing the risk of an accident, e.g. boom- gates in a level-crossing. 2 Contents Terminology and definitions .................................................................... 2 1. Introduction ........................................................................................ 4 1.1 Aim and Research Questions .......................................................................... 5 1.2 Delimitations and Structure ............................................................................ 6 2. Level-crossings .................................................................................. 7 2.1 Context of level-crossings and safety............................................................... 7 2.2 Measures of safety and protection ..................................................................10 3. Institutional context ......................................................................... 12 3.1 Legal framework of level-crossings .................................................................12 3.2 Level-crossings and planning .........................................................................14 3.3 Infrastructural safety in Sweden ....................................................................17 4. Earlier research and theoretical considerations ................................. 18 4.1 Level-crossings and the human factor .............................................................18 4.2 Explaining long-term trends ..........................................................................19 4.3 Risk models.................................................................................................20 4.4 Regional differences/spatial inequality ............................................................21 4.5 The concept of risk .......................................................................................22 5. Methodology, method and data ......................................................... 24 5.1 The geographic approach ..............................................................................24 5.2 Logistic regression analysis ...........................................................................26 5.3 Using secondary data ...................................................................................28 5.4 Data sources ...............................................................................................28 5.5 Dataset and delimitations .............................................................................31 5.6 Variables and hypotheses .............................................................................34 5.7 Population and risk assessment .....................................................................36 6 Empirical findings ............................................................................... 37 6.1 A spatial perspective on infrastructural safety ..................................................37 6.2 Identifying risk factors: Logistic regression analysis .........................................52 7 Synthesis: risks and regions ............................................................... 55 7.1 Variables of risk and hotspots of hazard ..........................................................56 7.2 Limitations ..................................................................................................58 7.3 Conclusion ..................................................................................................58 References ............................................................................................ 60 Appendix ............................................................................................... 64 3 1. Introduction Even though railway transport is regarded as relatively safe, there are some critical points that constitute risks to humans. This exposure to risk increases with increased traffic flows on the Swedish railways. During the last 20 years, the number of passenger trips on the Swedish railways has almost doubled (Transport Analysis, 2018a). With a growing concern of global warming, railway transport is getting more attention in the public discourse as an environmentally friendly way of transport. Railway transport does already stand for nearly one-sixth of the long-distance passenger travel around and between cities. Globally, rail networks carry 8 pct. of motorised passenger movements and 7 pct. of the freight transport but do only consume 2 pct. of the energy used in the transport sector (International Energy Agency, 2019). Therefore, there are great opportunities of investing and expanding the railway system in the name of sustainable development. This has already been done by the Swedish government, which has put the railway network on the agenda with heavy investment in infrastructure in the upcoming years until 2029. In line with climate, employment, housing and regional development, more than 273 billion SEK will be invested in new infrastructure and large-scale projects, but also in the operation and maintenance of the railway system. The same goes for investments in the state-owned road network, in which more than 164 billion SEK are invested in e.g. measures that increase the traffic safety within the system (Swedish Government decision N2018/03462/TIF). The two basic transport network systems, i.e. the road network and railway network, are almost totally detached and constitute two separate systems. However, these networks or systems intersect in so-called level-crossings (Swedish: plankorsningar) which represent hazardous interfaces for both road users as well as railway users (see figure 1). 18 persons were killed and 29 were seriously injured in the Swedish railway system during 2017 (suicides and suicide attempts excluded). However, 4 out of these 18 fatalities and 21 out of the 29 seriously injured occurred at the hazardous level-crossings (Transport Analysis, 2018b). Accidents at level-crossings therefore stand for a major part of the killed and injured in the railway system. Figure 1: A typical Swedish level-crossing, equipped with an active warning system (photo by author). During February 2019, Swedish television broadcasted a documentary
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