How stable was 1945-1949? The Second World War left Europe devastated. Central Europe was in ruins. From the UK to , from to the USSR, infrastructure was broken, families were separated, lives were lost. Figures only give some idea of the disaster the war had been for the continent, but here are a few:  Between 18-20 million people were made homeless in by the destruction of their cities.  84% of Budapest’s buildings were damaged and 30% uninhabitable.  Both France and Yugoslavia had lost 77% of their railway engines.  The people who died as a direct consequence of the war were between 35 and 40 million in total. Q: Do you know what state your country or was in during these years?

In some parts of Europe war did not end in 1945. For example, had to endure a civil war for another five years. Q: Did war end in your country or region in 1945?

By 1949 Europe was divided into East and West. Eastern Europe was influenced by the communist Soviet Union. Western Europe was influence by the capitalist USA. These two countries, known as the superpowers, became great rivals. Europe became a frontline of the ‘Cold War’. European people feared that this Cold War tension could break out into all out war between the USSR and the USA. Would Europe once more be a battleground? Q: Was your country or region in the US or Soviet sphere of influence?

In eastern European countries the Soviets put in place governments they could control and used military force to crush any resistance. In western Europe the governments were mostly liberal elected by the people. However, the USA had great economic influence, for example, it gave money to help western European countries to rebuild. This was called the Marshall Plan and it was given to countries that would agree to work and trade with the USA. The USA also required western European countries to cooperate with each other. The US also provided military protection for western Europe as it was the major country in NATO (the Alliance founded in 1949). Q: What evidence can you find for how the US or USSR controlled your country or region?

Task: now complete the first line of the chart ‘Stability in Europe 1945 to today’. How stable was Europe 1949-1969? In eastern Europe countries were part of Soviet led organisations such as Comecom and Cominform. These organisations made sure that the USSR’s influence remained strong. In western Europe, the USA encouraged, but did not lead European cooperation. Some western European governments wanted to build closer economic and political cooperation to avoid future wars. Some were also concerned to prevent Germany becoming a strong, independent power once again. However, Germany was the frontline with the Soviet zone and so they were happy for Germany to have an armed and secure border with the east. Q: what was the view of politicians in your country or region about closer political and economic cooperation in this period?

To solve this dilemma, western European politicians of six countries established a common ownership of coal and steel production in 1951. These countries were: , France, Italy, , The and . The fact that the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) was a Coal and Steel Community was vital to the aim of reaching stability on the continent. These were the key materials needed for war at the time. Shared ownership meant that no single government could use to build weapons to fight another. The ECSC had its own set of rules to sort out any disagreements about coal and steel production. This was a way of making western Europe more stable. In 1957, the Treaty of resulted in the setting up of the . Cooperation and agreed rules for dealing with disputes were now spread to more areas to life. These Communities became the in 1993. Q: Is your country in the European Union? If so, when did it join?

The period 1792-1945 saw a series of bitter wars between France and Germany (although it was not united until 1871). The great improvement in Franco-German relations is a key part of the European Union. In 1963 these two countries signed the Elysee Treaty. This set out rules for agreeing a common French and German position on European issues. Q: how was your country or region affected by the wars between France and Germany 1792- 1945?

In the 1960s the economies of the six European Community members grew quickly. Their governments were moderate, mostly supported the alliances with the USA and western Europe was protected by the NATO alliance. Even when there was social unrest at the end of the 1960s, the European Communities kept thriving through the change. Their role in agreeing policies, solving disputes, and preventing armed conflict was seen as too valuable. Q: what were the big issues for your country or region at the end of the 1960s? Task: now complete the second line of the chart ‘Stability in Europe 1945 to today’. How stable was Europe 1969-2000? The contrast between those countries in Europe that were democratic and part of the European Communities and those countries where there was dictatorship grew starker. Economic development in and was suffocated by dictatorship. In Greece, civil war limited people’s lives well into the 1960s, and then there was military rule until 1974. In the east, beyond the Iron Curtain, single party rule brought varying degrees of political and economic oppression. Q: how strong was and the economy in your country or region in the 1970s and 1980s?

The European Communities had a commitment to liberal democracy that prevented countries that were not democratic from joining. While dictatorships did not fall so that countries could join the European Communities, membership certainly was an appealing option for new democracies. Greece joined in 1981 and Spain and Portugal in 1986. After the end of the Cold War in 1989, the 1990s saw a boom of application requests from countries that had been controlled by the Soviet Union. The European Union now has 28 member states. Q: what was the view about the enlargement of the EU in your country in the 1990s?

The , where the governments are represented, and the are where laws are agreed. There are rules that ensure that most of the decisions can be made by the majority. Unanimous voting is required about matters that are still c of the member States, controlled entirely by the member states. These include: defence, foreign policy and most social policies. With 28 members is can be difficult to get swift and effective decision making. Q: can you think of an example where the EU has struggled to develop a common policy on an issue?

Task: now complete the third line of the chart ‘Stability in Europe 1945 to today’.

How stable is Europe today?

With the birth of the European Union, the concept of political stability had considerably evolved since the . it was not just about conflict management, but also about free and fair elections, fully transparent and accountable governments, equal possibilities for any citizen regardless of background. It was, in summary, about greater democracy. Q: do you agree with this view about what creates political stability today? Why/why not?

The 1990s and the early 2000s, years of reasonably rapid growth, did not put the European system under any kind of stress test. Political stability in Europe seemed to be a matter of fact: within its borders, modern and functioning democracies thrived, albeit with varying levels of transparency and accountability. Some members began to share a common currency, the . Outside its borders, other European countries were rapidly shrugging off the remnants of past dictatorships, and were steadily heading towards membership of the Union. Some other countries, long-established democracies (such as and ), were not part of the Union, but benefited from comprehensive agreements with the EU, such as about visas, trade and finance. Q: what was the situation in your country or region in the year 2000?

The so-called ‘subprime’ economic crisis struck Europe in 2008. The EU was criticised by many for its response. Some Euro member countries’ economies crashed dramatically: Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece. France was badly hit. No country was left untouched. The financial and banking system in the Union did not possess the tools for an effective and coordinated response, yet most EU countries were bound together by a common currency. Q: how was your country or region affected by the world economic crisis that began in 2008?

The choice was then made to provide the 19 members with “the tools”: a banking union and a coordinated financial system. However, there was no formal treaty to create this . It was only partially accountable, with informal and bendable rules, and did not apply to the 9 members outside the Eurozone. Faith in the European Union, “the guardian of political stability”, was shaken. Were there limits to what it could achieve? If a democratically elected government decided not to follow the aims of the Eurogroup, was the Union entitled to retaliate, in the name of political stability? Does the EU, in its current form, have the tools for maintaining political stability and upholding the current concept of open, transparent, and accountable democracy? Q: how have attitudes towards the EU changed in your country/region since 2008? Task: now complete the final line of the chart ‘Stability in Europe 1945 to today’.

A TIMELINE RELEVANT TO EUROPEAN STABILITY (If you do not know what these are, they are all easy to find via an internet search.)

1947-48 - Europe divides into communist East influenced by the USSR and capitalist West influenced by the USA. European governments and economies are still very fragile.

1949 - North Atlantic Treaty Organisation founded. It becomes the de facto military security for the European Project.

1951 - the European Steel and Coal Community (ECSC) is set up by France, Germany, Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg and The Netherlands to secure cooperation over these key resources.

1957 - European Economic Community (EEC) is founded by the six via Treaty of Rome. By this time, their economies and democracies are developing.

1968 - widespread civil unrest in many member states of the EEC does not threaten the European project.

1970s - European economies experience difficulties, but the EEC continues to provide relative prosperity. The continuing Cold War provides cohesion in Western Europe against the Eastern Bloc.

1973 - First enlargement of the EEC with the accession of the established democracies and economies of , Ireland and the UK.

1981 - Greece joins the EEC in 1981 as a newly restored democracy (Spain and Portugal emerge from fascism and join in 1986).

1992 - establishes the European Union and lays the foundation for the Euro currency, partly as a result of French fear of the economic might of a newly reunified Germany.

1995 - Enlargement of the EU: , ,

2004 - Enlargement of the EU: , , , , , , , , , ( and accedes in 2007; in 2013).

2007 - Lisbon Treaty to adapt EU to the needs of 27 states. It provides for an informal Eurogroup of countries.

2008 - sub-prime crisis causes the worst economic situation since the 1929 Wall Street Crash. European institutions increasingly struggle to cope with the strains on the Eurozone in the next few years.

GLOSSARY

Authoritarian regimes: An authoritarian regime is a political regime where central power is very strong and political freedoms are limited or very limited.

Eurogroup: The Eurogroup is the informal governing authority of the EU countries whose currency is the Euro. It was established as an ‘informal body’ by the (2009). It consists of all the Eurozone Ministers of Economy, and is chaired by one of them, periodically elected.

European Communities: The European Communities were the constitutive parts of the ECC. They were three organisations (European Economic Community, later renamed European Community, or EC; European Atomic Energy Community, or EURATOM; European Coal and Steel Community, or ECSC), governed by the same institutions. The ECSC was created in 1951. The Treaties of Rome created the other two in 1957. The Communities were integrated as the first pillar of the EU in 1993. In 2002 the ECSC ceased to exist. The EC was dissolved into the EU in 2009 (Treaty of Lisbon); EURATOM is still a separate organisation, but is governed by the same EU institutions.

Federal System: A Federal System is a system in which power is shared between a central authority and constituent political units. Its constituent units (or members) are bound to a common agreement, and agree to give up some powers to a central authority. usually have a two-chamber Parliament (one representing the citizens, one the territories or constituent units); the constituent units often have the same powers and competences (but this is not always the case). Changes to the Constitution or the Covenant must follow strict procedures, in order to protect the rights of the constituent units.

Intergovernmental Organisation: An intergovernmental organisation is an institution consisting of sovereign member States with a common objective and institutionalised procedures. The organisation itself has no exclusive competence, and all decisions made by the organisation are made by the members. Each State commands the same decision making power as the others, regardless of size and population. The United Nations are an intergovernmental organisation.

Marshall Plan: The Marshall Plan (officially the European Recovery Program, ERP) was an American initiative to aid Europe, in which the United States gave $13 billion in economic support to help rebuild Western European economies between 1948-51.

NATO: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance which was signed in 1949 by 12 countries from the Western block. Originated from a Treaty signed by Western European countries (, 1948), it was formed with a view to build a consistent military alliance that would allow the USA to have a foothold in Europe while providing Western Europeans with a structure that would deter Soviet aggression and keep any other potential rising military power in Europe in check (notably West Germany, which some European countries viewed with some residual suspicion). It now counts 28 member States. The latest enlargement took place in 2009 and involved Albania and Croatia.

Political stability: “Stability” does not necessarily mean that there is no conflict, but it does apply to a situation where no violent action is undertaken to solve conflict. “Political stability” applies to the political situation of a country, usually seen from an institutional angle. A country is politically stable if government holds relatively undisputed jurisdiction over its lands; if its decisions are respected across the country; and if changes to the leadership or form of government are not caused by upheavals or violent actions. In modern days Europe, countries are sometimes defined as politically unstable when their governments change frequently (once or twice a year), even if no violence is involved.

Subprime crisis: The crisis originated in the US in 2007-2008. Suddenly, and to the wider public’s surprise, 100 mortgage lending companies went bankrupt. What had happened was that these companies stood on ‘securities’ (basically papers that guaranteed a revenue) whose supposed value was not matching the real value of the mortgages in the US. But while those mortgages were gradually paid off, and there were plenty of houses available, the system could sustain itself. Credit for mortgages was easily given, and consumers were allowed to sign for loans they could not afford. The housing market was booming, but eventually there were too many houses and their value decreased. Rates for mortgages payment therefore increased and people started to fail to pay. This hit the ‘securities’ that mortgage lending companies and banks had been trading at full value. Once the actual value of these securities fell dramatically, companies and banks started to go bankrupt.

Three Pillars of the EU: The three pillars of the EU were the constitutive parts of the European Union between 1993 (Treaty of Maastricht) and 2009. Their purpose was to systematise the areas where the EU would have competences, those where competence would be shared, and those where member States would have exclusive competence. With the Treaty of Lisbon (2009), the structure was reformed, although the distinction between the pillars is sometimes still referred to, for simplification purposes. The three pillars are: the European Communities; the Common Foreign and Defence policies; and Justice and Home Affairs. The first pillar was supranational (EU competence), the other two increasingly intergovernmental (albeit with some areas where competence was shared).

Warsaw Pact: The Warsaw Pact (formally the Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation, and Mutual Assistance) is a defunct military alliance between the USSR and seven satellite countries of Eastern Europe. It was signed in 1955 to counterbalance NATO (although the two alliances never fought against each other). It was dissolved in 1991, six months before the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) itself.

Sources

On Cold War in Europe:

A shadow has fallen upon the scenes so lately lighted by the Allied victory…. From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic an iron curtain has descended across the Continent.

Winston Churchill, Fulton, Missouri on 05/03/1946 (http://www.churchill-society- london.org.uk/Fulton.html )

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1959_NATO_and_WP_troop_strengths_in_Europe.svg

On the birth of the coal & steel community:

Europe will not be made all at once, or according to a single plan. It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity. The coming together of the nations of Europe requires the elimination of the age-old opposition of France and Germany. Any action taken must in the first place concern these two countries. (...)

It proposes that Franco-German production of coal and steel as a whole be placed under a common High Authority, within the framework of an organisation open to the participation of the other countries of Europe. The pooling of coal and steel production should immediately provide for the setting up of common foundations for economic development as a first step in the of Europe, and will change the destinies of those regions which have long been devoted to the manufacture of munitions of war, of which they have been the most constant victims. (...)

By pooling basic production and by instituting a new High Authority, whose decisions will bind France, Germany and other member countries, this proposal will lead to the realization of the first concrete foundation of a European federation indispensable to the preservation of peace.

(Schuman, 1950) http://europa.eu/about-eu/basic-information/symbols/europe-day/schuman-declaration/index

On enlargement:

Un succès pour Constantin Caramanlis (Le Figaro, 11/02/1976, translated by CIVCE)

During their meeting on Monday, the Foreign Ministers of the Nine decided that negotiations for Greece’s accession to the Common Market would be opened as soon as possible. They rejected any political precondition as well as any idea of a ‘probationary period’, thus contradicting the opinion of the Commission, which had wanted to delay Greece’s entry until that country’s economy was better able to cope with all the consequences of entry. (...) As soon as the news was received in Athens, the Prime Minister declared that the complete integration of Greece as the tenth Member State of the EEC was a historic event for his country and that it confirmed the confidence that Greece now inspired internationally. (...) The news was well received by the population and, in particular, by the industrialists and retailers who see attractive prospects opening up. (...) People here are asking how the Greek economy will manage to bring itself into line with those of its partners, something that will require further price rises, less easily absorbed than in the other countries of the Community. (...) http://www.cvce.eu/obj/a_success_for_konstantinos_karamanlis_from_le_figaro_11_february_197 6-en-19074d97-efda-45e1-b956-931833bb89c7.html

Why are these two countries joining the EU, and why now?

Bulgaria and Romania applied to join the EU in the early 1990s along with eight other former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe, once they were no longer under the power of the Soviet Union. The other eight moved quickly to carry out political and economic reforms, and joined the EU in 2004. Bulgaria and Romania were slower, and are only now judged to have met the EU's membership conditions.

Are Bulgaria and Romania really ready for membership?

Officials at the have been quoted as saying that they are not really ready, but that delaying accession may not be the best way to encourage further reforms.

The Commission was hoping, for example, that Bulgaria would take big steps over the summer to tackle high-level corruption and organised crime, but officials in Brussels say they have been disappointed. Nonetheless, a decision has been taken that it is better to have Bulgaria and Romania inside the club - under threat of strong sanctions if EU funds are not properly administered or crime gangs continue to flourish - rather than leaving them out in the cold. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2266385.stm

Views on the Eurogroup and negotiations with Greece:

Greece's former Finance Minister says the Eurogroup is “completely and utterly” controlled by Germany, Greece was “set up” and last week’s referendum was wasted. … “I try and talk economics in the Eurogroup” – the club of 19 finance ministers whose countries use the Euro – “which nobody does.” I asked him what happened when he did. “It’s not that it didn’t go down well – there was point blank refusal to engage in economic arguments. Point blank. You put forward an argument that you’ve really worked on, to make sure it’s logically coherent, and you’re just faced with blank stares. It is as if you haven’t spoken. What you say is independent of what they say. You might as well have sung the Swedish national anthem – you’d have got the same reply.” This weekend divisions surfaced within the Eurogroup, with countries split between those who seemed to want a “Grexit” and those demanding a deal. But Varoufakis said they were always been united in one respect: their refusal to renegotiate. http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2015/07/exclusive-yanis-varoufakis-opens-about-his- five-month-battle-save-greece

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tspiras and Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis refused to make a deal, according to Juncker, who claimed that Varoufakis pulled his negotiators out of the room when they were too close to an agreement. “[Juncker] said we were ready to front-load EU funds at the disposal of Greece for the future and the Greek government didn’t take the offer, which convinced them that [the Greeks] weren’t interested in an agreement and it was ideological,” an MEP who was in the room told POLITICO after the meeting. “He said, ‘We were so close, in fact, we were so close that it was just €60 million that we were arguing over.” Three sources in the room described the €60 million figure but said Juncker did not go into detail about it. Another EU source said Juncker was referring to suggestions by Greek negotiators that they would be willing to make cuts in defense spending and also to exclude some islands from a discounted VAT rate. But, the source added, after Tsipras’ speech Wednesday afternoon and the decision by Eurogroup ministers to hold off further talks until after the referendum, these proposals were never formally submitted. The mood was tense while Juncker vented his frustrations about working with Tsipras and Varoufakis, who he claimed were constantly changing the terms of the negotiation and were unwilling to make a deal no matter how much EU negotiators bent. http://www.politico.eu/article/juncker-so-close-commission-deal-greece-creditors-ecb-imf- eurogroup/

THINK: how do these sources support your ideas about stability in Europe 1945-today?

Has the EU failed to ensure political stability in Europe?

The subprime crisis has developed into a long, not yet ended, economic and structural crisis in Europe. Unemployment has dramatically hit most EU economies, and some areas of the EU are now poverty-stricken. Has the EU failed to deliver what it promised?

This current challenge is two-fold. On one hand the EU needs to address this crisis, because it puts into question its very function as a provider of political stability. Democratic support for the EU, albeit so far still in the majority across the continent, has been consistently lower than in the past. Should the EU fail to be seen to provide relief to those areas and people badly damaged by the crisis, the support for the European project will keep falling.

On the other hand, while the support wavers, some member States have become more assertive and challenge decisions taken by the governments when meeting at the Council. This risks jeopardising the function of the EU as a “containment chamber for tensions”, or as a forum to solve disputes between member States via agreed rules and procedures.

For example, some countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, refused to support plans for the distribution of migrants among EU countries; others, such as Austria, Denmark, Sweden, have temporarily suspended the (which allowed people to cross borders without custom control); and the UK has asked for, and partially obtained, “special treatment” before voting on whether to stay or not in the EU.

Here are some questions to think about, research further and discuss:

 Does the EU need reform? And if yes, what kind of reform?

 Is there still a need for an organisation like the EU to ensure political stability in Europe, or are individual states best fitted, and more entitled, to take up this role?