PROFILE OF CHANGE IN THE CITY OF PITTSBURGH COMPARISON OF 2009‐2013 AND 2014‐2018 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY (ACS) ESTIMATES FOR THE CITY OF PITTSBURGH AND NEIGHBORHOODS PROGRAM IN URBAN AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR SOCIAL AND URBAN RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH JANUARY 2020 PROFILE OF CHANGE IN THE CITY OF PITTSBURGH – JANUARY 2020 Table of Contents Data and Methodology ............................................................................................ 2 Population Trends in the City of Pittsburgh ............................................................. 3 Age ........................................................................................................................ 4 Race ...................................................................................................................... 5 Educational Attainment ........................................................................................ 7 Commuting ........................................................................................................... 8 Housing Tenure ..................................................................................................... 9 Poverty ................................................................................................................ 10 Veterans .............................................................................................................. 11 Data Profiles ........................................................................................................... 12 Appendix: Index of City of Pittsburgh neighborhoods by Census Block Group .... 104 Notes .................................................................................................................... 107 UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR SOCIAL AND URBAN RESEARCH – UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH 1 PROFILE OF CHANGE IN THE CITY OF PITTSBURGH – JANUARY 2020 Data and Methodology This report summarizes major sociodemographic changes for the City of Pittsburgh and city neighborhoods using data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). Previous and related reports are available on the web page for the University Center for Social and Urban Research (UCSUR) at the University of Pittsburgh: www.ucsur.pitt.edu. The ACS is an ongoing survey program which produces estimates of population characteristics for all areas within the United States. The ACS produces annual updates on population characteristics across a broad range of socioeconomic variables for geographic areas with populations greater than 65,000. For smaller geographic areas, including census tracts and block groups, the ACS produces estimates of population characteristics generated from data aggregated over five years of survey responses. City of Pittsburgh neighborhoods are currently defined as either a single census tract or a collection of census tracts and block groups, making the five‐year estimates the only ACS data available for neighborhood‐ level analysis. The data profiles compiled here compare ACS estimates data for two non‐overlapping five‐year time periods: 2009‐2013 and 2014‐2018. Profiles are compiled for 86 of the 90 neighborhoods currently defined by the City of Pittsburgh Department of City Planning. In addition, data for the Central Business District (Downtown) and Bluff neighborhoods are combined into a single profile. Excluded are profiles for the city neighborhoods, currently defined as Chateau and South Shore, due to the minimal residential populations of each area. Also compiled are profiles for selected subareas within the seven‐county Pittsburgh Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), currently defined as Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland Southwestern Pennsylvania. These subareas include: (1) the City of Pittsburgh; (2) Allegheny County; (3) the Pittsburgh MSA; (4) the municipalities, or parts of municipalities, within Allegheny County but outside of the City of Pittsburgh; and (5) an area defined as the six counties of the Pittsburgh MSA with the exception of Allegheny County. The ACS is a sample‐based data collection program. The five‐year ACS estimates, by aggregating a larger number of survey responses, typically have smaller errors than one‐year ACS estimates for the same geography. Nonetheless, sample and other measurement errors can impact the data presented here, especially for estimates for smaller geographies, including city neighborhoods and small population subgroups. While the ACS data for the 2014‐2018 period is the most recent five‐year data available as of December 2019, it nonetheless represents historical data. The comparison of the 2009‐2013 and 2014‐ 2018 periods uses data over a ten year period, but data for each period is presented as an average over a five‐year period. Any trends identified by comparing the two periods can be interpreted as change over a five year period. Not all trends identified in these profiles have necessarily continued, and some trends may have accelerated. These profiles are intended to be one data source to be used in conjunction with other data for those studying change within the City of Pittsburgh and its component neighborhoods. UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR SOCIAL AND URBAN RESEARCH – UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH 2 PROFILE OF CHANGE IN THE CITY OF PITTSBURGH – JANUARY 2020 Population Trends in the City of Pittsburgh Current demographic trends in the City of Pittsburgh contrast an emerging stability for the city’s overall population with continuing change in the characteristics of city residents. The modern City of Pittsburgh has been shaped by nearly continuous population decline through much of the 20th Century. Historical population data typically cites the city’s peak population as the 676,806 residents enumerated in the 1950 decennial census, with ongoing decline recorded over each subsequent decade through 2010. Shifting away from that long term decline, the population of the City of Pittsburgh has maintained a certain level of stability over the most recent decade. The most recent data from the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program (PEP) show that the city’s population increased slightly between 2010 and 2011 for the first time in several decades. More recent population estimates do not indicate that the city sustained population gains, but only minimal population decline has been estimated in subsequent years. Between 2010 and 2018, the Census Bureau estimates that the city’s population declined from 305,405 to 301,148, an average annual population decline of 0.18%, which would be the slowest rates of population decline for the city in over six decades. The upcoming 2020 decennial census will be the next complete enumeration of the population and may result in a different population count in 2020 than population estimates to date suggest. Recent stability in the total population within the City of Pittsburgh masks ongoing and significant changes in the characteristics of the city’s resident population. The following sections highlight the major socioeconomic trends impacting the City of Pittsburgh and how those trends compare to changes within the broader Pittsburgh metropolitan region and the nation. Figure 1. City of Pittsburgh Annual Population Estimates, 1990‐2018 380,000 360,000 340,000 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR SOCIAL AND URBAN RESEARCH – UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH 3 PROFILE OF CHANGE IN THE CITY OF PITTSBURGH – JANUARY 2020 Age In the decades immediately following World War II, regional out‐migration and the suburbanization within the Pittsburgh region emerged as major factors depressing the city’s population. This population loss was compounded by regional population declines which accelerated in the 1980s. More likely to leave the city were younger families, resulting in a relatively older age profile for city residents compared to either the nation or suburban areas of the Pittsburgh region. The most recent five‐year ACS estimates also show a distinctly different shift in the age distribution of the population living within the City of Pittsburgh. Between the 2009‐2013 and 2014‐2018 periods, ACS estimates shows that the city’s population between the ages of 25 and 44 experienced a gain of 8,330 or +9.5%. Other than for a smaller increase in the population age 65 and over, +1,165 or +2.7%, all other age groups are estimated to have declined between the two periods. Figure 2. Population Change by Age Group Between 2009‐2013 and 2014‐2018 Periods City of Pittsburgh Under 18 ‐4,200( ‐8.4%) 18‐24 ‐2,357 (‐4.4%) 25‐44 +8,330 (9.5%) 45‐64 ‐5,413 (‐7.6%) 65 and over +1,165 (+2.7%) 0 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ +2,000 +4,000 +6,000 +8,000 10,000 ‐ +10,000 UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR SOCIAL AND URBAN RESEARCH – UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH 4 PROFILE OF CHANGE IN THE CITY OF PITTSBURGH – JANUARY 2020 Race Also continuing is a shift in the racial composition of City of Pittsburgh residents. Between the 2008‐ 2013 and 2014‐2018 periods, the Black‐alone population within the City or Pittsburgh decreased by 6,945 or ‐9.9%, while the city’s White‐alone population declined by just 137, a decline of less than ‐0.1%. Over the same period, the city’s Asian‐alone population increased by 3,086 or +21.7%. In areas within Allegheny County but outside the City of Pittsburgh, the Black‐alone population increased by 5,086 or +7.1%. This latest data shows a continuation of a shift of the African‐American population within Allegheny County. In