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Greater Yellowstone Watersheds

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Greater Yellowstone Watersheds 1 GREATER YELLOWSTONE CLIMATE ASSESSMENT 2 Past, Present, and Future Climate Change in 3 Greater Yellowstone Watersheds 4 Steven Hostetler 1, Cathy Whitlock 2, Bryan Shuman 3, 5 David Liefert 4, Charles Wolf Drimal 5, and Scott Bischke 6 6 7 8 June 2021 9 10 1 Co-lead; Research Hydrologist; US Geological Survey Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman MT 11 2 Co-lead; Regents Professor Emerita of Earth Sciences, Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State 12 University, Bozeman MT 13 3 Wyoming Excellence Chair in Geology & Geophysics, University of Wyoming. Laramie WY; Director, 14 University of Wyoming-National Park Service Research Center at the AMK Ranch, Grand Teton National Park. 15 4 Water Resources Specialist, Midpeninsula Regional Open Space District, Los Altos CA; PhD graduate, 16 Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY 17 5 Waters Conservation Coordinator, Greater Yellowstone Coalition, Bozeman MT 18 6 Science Writer, MountainWorks Inc., Bozeman MT Land Acknowledgment The lands and waters of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem have been home to Indigenous people for over 10,000 yr. In the most recent millennium, over a dozen Tribes have considered this region a part of their traditional (ancestral) homelands. This includes, but is not limited to, several Tribes and bands of Shoshone, Apsáalooke/Crow, Arapaho, Cheyenne and Ute Nations, as well as the Bannock, Gros Ventre, Kootenai, Lakota, Lemhi, Little Shell, Nakoda, Nez Perce, Niitsitapi/Blackfeet, Pend d’Oreille, and Salish. We pay respect to them and to other Indigenous peoples with strong cultural, spiritual, and contemporary ties to this land. We are indebted to their stewardship. We recognize and support Indigenous individuals and communities who live here now, and with those with cultural and spiritual connections to these Homelands. 19 20 21 This report was funded by (to be added). 22 23 This report can also be found online at www.gyclimate.org. 24 25 Scott Bischke of MountainWorks Inc. (www.emountainworks.com) served as the science editor for 26 the report, as well as print-copy designer and website developer. 27 28 29 30 31 Recommended citation: 32 (to be added with doi#) 33 34 35 Table of Contents 36 37 Table of Figures .................................................................................................................................................... iii 38 Table of Tables ..................................................................................................................................................... vii 39 Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................................................. viii 40 List of Acronyms ................................................................................................................................................. viii 41 Foreword .............................................................................................................................................................. ix 42 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION TO THE GREATER YELLOWSTONE CLIMATE ASSESSMENT .......................................... 1 43 The Geography of the Greater Yellowstone Area ..................................................................................................... 5 44 The HUC6 Watersheds in the GYA ............................................................................................................................. 7 45 Structure of the Assessment ..................................................................................................................................... 9 46 Literature Cited ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 47 CHAPTER 2. CLIMATE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE GREATER YELLOWSTONE AREA .... 14 48 Key Messages .......................................................................................................................................................... 14 49 What is Climate? ..................................................................................................................................................... 14 50 Climate and Water Variables Discussed in the Assessment .................................................................................... 16 51 Present Climate ....................................................................................................................................................... 17 52 Past Climate Change ................................................................................................................................................ 20 53 Causes of Climate Change ....................................................................................................................................... 33 54 Summary ................................................................................................................................................................. 36 55 Literature Cited ....................................................................................................................................................... 37 56 CHAPTER 3. HISTORIC CLIMATE AND WATER TRENDS IN THE GREATER YELLOWSTONE AREA ............................. 42 57 Key Messages .......................................................................................................................................................... 42 58 Introduction............................................................................................................................................................. 42 59 Data Sources ............................................................................................................................................................ 43 60 Historical Climate Changes in the GYA .................................................................................................................... 46 61 Historical Hydrological Changes in the GYA ............................................................................................................ 68 62 Summary ................................................................................................................................................................. 78 63 Literature Cited ....................................................................................................................................................... 80 64 CHAPTER 4. BACKGROUND TO CLIMATE PROJECTIONS ........................................................................................ 85 65 Key Messages .......................................................................................................................................................... 85 66 Introduction............................................................................................................................................................. 85 67 Climate Scenarios .................................................................................................................................................... 85 68 Climate Models ....................................................................................................................................................... 88 69 Downscaling Climate Projections ............................................................................................................................ 94 70 Climate Projections Used in the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment ............................................................ 98 71 Summary ................................................................................................................................................................. 98 72 Chapter 4 Appendix ................................................................................................................................................. 99 73 Literature Cited ..................................................................................................................................................... 107 74 CHAPTER 5. FUTURE TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS FOR THE GREATER YELLOWSTONE AREA ............................ 110 75 Key Messages ........................................................................................................................................................ 110 76 Details of Temperature Projections ...................................................................................................................... 110 77 Seasonal Temperature Changes Over the GYA ..................................................................................................... 111 78 Annual Temperature Trends in the HUC6 Watersheds ......................................................................................... 115 79 The Seasonal Cycle of Temperature ...................................................................................................................... 117 80 Temperature Extremes in HUC6 Towns ................................................................................................................ 120 81 Summary of Projected Temperature Changes ...................................................................................................... 123 82 Chapter 5 Appendix ..............................................................................................................................................
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