Macroeconomic Policy Reforms and Agriculture Towards Equitable Growth in Zimbabwe

Romeo M. Bautista Marcelle Thomas Kay Muir-Leresche Hans Lofgren

RESEARCH REPORT 128

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, D.C. ' ! " # ! $ " "! $ % !

&& ' $ () ) $ *$ +,- % . /-, ,0+ ,1+ """

2! ! 3 ." 4 " 5! " 6 ! 2 7 8 9 !N; < - 0= 7( ,0>+ >,-&&, ; = - N5! " ! !N5! " & N?! N5! " @ ( N5! " 1 5! "NA! + B ! ;A! =N5! " 7 $ ! 2$ ->@-, ; = < - 0 C* -&-50 2&& &&0-D0+0>-, - -11- - Contents

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iii Tables

&- " ! $ ->0 M01$ ->01M>-$ ->>-M>+ -& & " ! $ ->>-M>+ -@ && ? # ! $ # ! $ ->>-M>+ -@ &@ (! !B $ ->0> -E &1 ! #$ # $ !! $ ->> M>E -> &+ ! # ! $ # ! $ $ ->>-M>1 - &E ! # $ ->> M>1 & &0 $ $ ! ! $ ->>-M>+ @ &> !! $ ->> M>+ 1 &- !! !$ ->> M>+ + @- 5! " ->>- & @ 5! " !,2 && @& 5! " !,2 ! 5! " $ ->>- &@ @@ ->>- 5! " !,23 (! &1 @1 . ! 5! "$ ->>- &E @+ . &0 @E C # $ &> @0 ?* ! 5! " # ! " @& 1- * $ ! $ 5!?A ! 1

iv TABLES v

1 4 11 1& G 4 1E 1@ ! # 4 1> 11 2 4 + 1+ ! + 1E , !! ! !$ + 10 . ! ! +& 1> !,, # +@ +- . H $ !H $ ! # B ! +> + ! E- +& ! E - * , $ ->>- 0 * 5! " !,2 01 7- ->>- 5! " !,23 . ! # ! 5! " > - ! # ->>- 5! " !,2 - & *- . ! ! # --+ A- 5!?A ! ! " , - 0 A 5!?A ! ! " ! - > A& 5!?A ! ! " ! -& Figures

- .! ! !! E 2! ! " > &- A! ! ! ! ! -0 & ?! $ ->> M>+ @- A!" ! " &- @ 2 3 ?* 5! " ! @- @& 2 3 ?* " @ 1- ( 5!?A ! @E 1 ! !! 5!?A ! @E 1& ! " # !H ! @0 1@ " 5!?A ! 1+

vi Foreword

->>+$ R . 2! * " " , ! B S2! ! ;2A=$ " ! * ?! . . B , " ! 3 # , 2"$ 2H! 4$ $ .H$ 5! $ 5! "$ , ! ! R B . 5! " . N ! 7 $ 2 .!$ ' 2,J$ C JN ! !$ $ ! 4 !! ! A! , B ! ! ->>-M>1 ;A= 5! " ! A! .! ->>+M ;52A.= ! $ " 5! "R ! C !H " !! ! $ $ ! ! # ->> !$ , 5! "R !! 3 !$ # $ # $ ! ! " B ! ! . ! ! , ! 4 " 5! " ->0 ! ! , , " ! ! 5! " ! " ! !, , ->>- " A$ " , ! ! ! . !! 5! " , 4 " . ! N ! ! # # N ! # A ! " B ! " 4 5!, " $ "$ " H !H $ " ! ! ! ! 4 " " !

vii viii FOREWORD

! $ ! ! " 5! "$ # $ #! ! ! $ ! . ! ! 4 ! ;?A= ! ->>- ! # 5! " . ! ! " # , H !" ! 4 . " ! , ! 5! " " !! ! ! . R ! H ! ! ) " " !" ! 5! " . !# , ! !! B ! !

K! 7 * ?$ Acknowledgments

! ?! . ;?.5= * ;*! =< 2A, T !! $ " . . ;5! "=$ ' 7 ;5! =$ H ;2H! 4=$ J .! 2 ;., H= . " ! $ R . 2! *$ !$ $ ! . " L * !! $ R . 2! *, " ! $ " , . # " !

ix Summary

! ! $ ! 4 !! , U ! 5! " A! B ! ! ->>-M>1 ;A= 5! " ! A! .! ->>+M ;52A.= . 5! " ! " ! ! H !!$ ! ! " $ ! 4 ! ! 4 ->+1$ " " , ! ; = ! O P ! , ! $ 5! " " ! " , " ! , ! ! , -1, !$ ->0 " " ,!B ! ! " , # ! ! ! $ ! ! < "$ ->0 " !! ! ! ! ! " ! , ! $ A !H # ! H $ ! $ ! 4 $ 52A. O ! P ! ! ! 5! " , ! . " !! , !$ " R ! , # ! ->> $ 5!, "R !! ! !H3 !$ , # $ # 4 ! ! $ ! ! ?* ! ! . 4 ! $ $ $ ! ! ! $ " !B R 5! "R # ! $ ;! !!= ! !$ , !! ;J= . J , R , , J ! !H

x xi SUMMARY

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xii

!H ! $ "$ 4 ! , # , J ! ! ! ! ! H ! 2$ ! # $ ! # ->>- . ! ! ! # " N! ! ! # , ! H ! ! # N! " ! " # ; " = ?* ! $ "$ " ! ! , ! 4 ! . ! ! 1 , ! ! 1 . ! N" ! " ! ! N ? ! , ! # # $ ! , ! # A ! " B ! " 4, $ "$ " H !H $ ! " ! 4 " 5! " ! ! ! ! . ! ! ! !! ! , 4 " H ; ! != < , ! !

Introduction

! ",! $ ! 5! "R ! ) ,4 5! "R A $ E !! @ M@1 R # " ! + ! 5! " . " ! ;?*=$ -+ $ " ! ! , !,$ ", !! ! C$ , $ "! !B 5! "R 00 , ->>-$ #!N! &- - ;) 7 ->>1= *! ! ! " " , ! . " " ! " ! ! ! , ! ;.!! ->00= $ ! N ! ! N ! ! " ! ! - ! O! P ! ! ! " O P " < ! ! ! ! ! H$ ! , ! . # " " # .$ " , " $ ->+ M0+ $ J ! , ;2 ->>1$ M@= 2$ " " ! , " . " ! " " " $ ! ! , # ! . ! ! " ! ) !N

-! $ 2 ;->E+= $ ! ;->0@= '$ ! . ;->> = 2#$ 2 ;->>1= ."

1 2 CHAPTER 1

! ! ",! " N " , , ! 4, ->E>M0@$ " " $ ! ! ! $ !, " ! ! " ;2 ! 7 ) ->>&= " " . $ # ! , , , ! ! ! ! $ !! ! ! ->0 $ ! , 7 $ $ " !! $ ! ! " ! , A $ ! , $ " H !B # " , B , ! ! # . , $ , ! !, $ " , ! ! ! " 4 ! , " ! !,->0 $ " ! " " ! , ) 7 2 ;2= ! !, ! ; H ->E0=$ " ! ! ! " ! ! $ , ! ; # ! ! ! , = ) ! ! $ ! ! , " ! ->>@ H $ " $ , " ! ! $ " , # , !$ ! !,->0 & ! # !$ , ! " " ! !$ " , ? R , ! " !! ! ! ! N H ! $ !

. # 7 ;->>1= " ?* " $ , ! 4 ! " ? , ->+1M0 !$ 7 ;->>1= ! " !, " # # ! ->+E ->0 ! & Q ;->> = 7 Q ;->>&= ,! !, $ ' ;->> =$ C! ;->0+=$ 7 ;->0-= INTRODUCTION 3

! " ! " H$ ! , "$ O , $ " " P O! !, ! , ! ! P O H ! !B " P ; H ->E0$ >= . $ $ # ! 4 $ " , " N " , !@ A4 " , 4 N " ! N N, ," ! B 5! "$ $ ! R , ! " ! 4 5! " # ;2,J ->01< ->>@< ) , ! 7 ->>1 = #! ! 5! " ! " ! " ) ! 4 " " 4 ! B # . ! , ! !! , M ;A= B ! ! , ! " 4 5! "$ , M ;52, " A.=$ ! ! 7 ! ->> " " ! ! $ ! " 4 !H !" , ; =N " ,! ! !! ! ! ! $ , ;K ->>E< 2, B " $ J ->>0= $ ", ! $ " !, . #! , ! , 5! "R ! 4 " !$ ! B !! ! $ ; ! H ! = " !, " !, ! ! R ! " . ! " 4 $ ! " , ! ! ! , ! ! ! , ; #! $ ! = ! ! ! ;

@ # ! 2#$ ! . ;->> $ @ += ! 4 ! O ! B ! ! ! "P 4 CHAPTER 1

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

# 5! " 5! "N 4 , ; $ ->> ->>1 = N 1 . ! 2 ; = ! #, ?A !$ ! " ! B ! 2$ ! . ! ! !" , . ?A ! ! 2 ;, ! ! = !, 5! " + , " , !, ! " 4 5! " 2 ! " N " 5! " ! ! , ! H $ E H R . 2 ! , !" " ! ! 4 " 4 ! ;?A= ! 5! "

Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses

" ! "! $ ; = !N ! I " 4 N ! 4 ! $ "$ #! !$ ! " 2$ # , !" !

Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Rural Incomes % ! $ ! 4 !! ! , - ! !! ! . !B !, ! N # $ # $ #, N " ) # ! $ # 5! "R !! ! ! . !, ! O!,!P !, 1 ! ! ! ! . ! ! ! $ " H # % H ",! !$ " $ 4 ! $ 2$ ! $ ! $ # #$ $ # ; #= ! $ " # # ! $ ! ! $ ! , ! , ;'$ $ Q ->00< 7 Q ->>&= % H $

1O2,!P ! ! ! " !, ! !

6 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND HYPOTHESES 7

, ! , # , $ R , # $ , ! ! ! ; , ! , = N 5!, $ "R ! ! . 4 4 ! , # ! $ ! $ ! ! ! # $ $ ! $ ! ! ; , " ! ! = . ! , ! A# , #, " ! $ " ! 4! ! ! ", ! H , , , , . " ! $ #!$ ! , $ " 8 CHAPTER 2

! ! $ ! ! ",! ! ! " ! ! ! ! !, , " , # $ ! - ! , !B !! , ! $ $ !! < ! " $ ! ! # . !" ! ! " !! , ! !! , ; H ! 4! = " # P ! $ ! ; " !! !H . ! = . " ! ! , O " P ! , O" $P , ! ! " , ! H O" P " ! O!!, P " , " ! , ;C! ->10$ -- = ! ! ! , $ " ! , ! ! $ " ! ! $ ! , $ ; ! = ! , ! ! P . O, $ " , ! P ! ! " " ! $ , , ! ! $ $ $ ! ! ! ! ! # ! " , !" ! ! " $ " ! " " ! , 2 J ;->E&= ! ! $ " $ ;->0>=$ $ $ C CH ;->0>=$ *$ ! ! , C $ ' ;->>0=$ ! ( " , ! ! " . # " $ # , " " ! ! , ! $ ! , ! !! CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND HYPOTHESES 9 10 CHAPTER 2

! $ " ! # !$ ! N! , " !! , $ $ $ " H " , ! " , P ! $ , " ! ! ! $ 2, ! # ?A ! 5! " P ! ! $ , " " !$ # ! A , , $ " $ ! !! $ ! ! !N !, $ N ! , ! ! . 2 ! , ?A ! , " , @ 1 " # ! ! , ! "" ! " J ! , $ 4 ! ! #! ! 7 ! $ ! 4 " 5! " ; " H # = ! ! ! ! ! ! , " ; " $ ! 4, ->>@< 2 ->>@< ) 7 ->>1= $ ! $ 5! "R 5!, $ "R ! $ !! !$ # $ !$ J # A " ! ! ! !, !! J $ " . , ) ! ! R ! " , , J ! $ , !H " ! ! ! # ! + 7 $ !$ " H !!

+ 2 ;->>@$ @&= $ O ! 3 $ ", $ " ! $ H$ ! "," P CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND HYPOTHESES 11

!$ " ! $ , . ! N , " " ! , 4 " , ! $ , ! $ # # 5! "E . ? , H J ! ! 4 !$ 4 ,, !! , " ! ; ! ! ! , = " !! !! ",! !! ! . , " 4 ! J ; = ! , !! ! !" ! , $ #," ! . ?A ! . , ! ! !, " " , ! ! ! 4 ! " , . ! ! !! , ! ! !$ B, " ", " $ !! $ ! ! . ! ! , !$ , ! ! ", $ ! ! " , $ ! !! , ! ! ! $ % A$ ! ! ! ! " ! H ! ! 4 5! "< !H ! $ " 5! " " ! $ $ H " ; &= 2H # , ",! J ! , ! ! 4 $ $ " C !! " !, ! " ! 4, ! ! ! !H , " 3 J ! !! ! !, ! ! 4 , $ H $ , " . # #! ! ! !$

EQ ! $ !! $ ! O! P ! H $

Economic Performance and Policies Since Independence

" , !R O P ;%*= ->+1$ ! " ! 5! " ; A = P -1, %* "$ $ ! , ! $ ->0 . " ,!B ! $ ", ! , 0 $ ! $ #, $ ! $ ! $ " ! . ! ! !$ A . # ! H $ ! $ !$ A " ! ! " ! ! ;?! 5! " ->>-= ! " !! 52A.$ " O ! P !

% ->0 M>- 4 ! 5! "$ " O ! " ! " " 89 ?* P ;) 7 ->>+$ 1+E= $ "$ , ! ->>E P ;P= ->01M>+ ; " = H 5! "R , ! " !> 7 ) 7 ! $ " ?* ! ->0 M01 1 ; ->>E=$ " ?* @ $ " . &- 7 5! "R " &1 ! ) ?* ->01M>- ) 7 ! $ ! PR ! ->>E , $ " " && ->01M>- ; , ! & =$ P ! , ?* " ! $ # "

0 K ;->>E= 2,J ;->>0= > P ;->>E=$ ! ! , ! ! $ !, $ ! ->>& ! ( ;(= % (

12 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLICIES SINCE INDEPENDENCE 13

Table 3.1 Average annual growth rates of gross domestic product and agricultural value-added, 1980–85, 1985–91, and 1991–96

!M # #M M $

? ! ;?*= ! ->0E 1 ->> @0 -& ? ! ;?*= ->0E @ & ->> &> -0 , ->0E E+ M + ->> - 1-

3 ->0E ! ) 7 ->>E < ->> ! P ->>E ( 3 (

;@0 ! &> $ " =.$ , ->> ->>1$ " ! ! , ?* 5! " ?* " ->>-M>+ ->0 M>- ;. & = 7 P ! $ . " ! . &- , " ?* " N ! ! # ! , N A $ ->>-M>+$ ! !$ , ! " ;) 7 ,! $ ->01M>- ->>1 $ 0E= $ ! , 2$ " ?* " !H ! ? ->>-M>+ " 2 7 - , " " @ @, ;2 7 ! C$ ?* ->>@$ ->0= 7 $ , 5! " , ! ->> $ ->0 $ J ! " ->0 M 7 ) 7 ! $ . 01 ! $ ! , &- " ! " ->0 M01$ ! " ->01M>- . , !,->0 $ J ! , ?* " ! ->0 M>- &1 . $ , P ! " , $ " " ?* " . , ->01M>-$ " ! , " # ->>-M>+ A# ! , " " ! !! -

- 5! "D # # ;->0E S - = ! 0@0 ->01,0+ -- 1 ->> ,>- ;) 7 ->>E= 14 CHAPTER 3

Table 3.2 Annual growth rates of gross domestic product and agricultural value-added, 1991–96

% & ' &%( &

->>-M> M > M 11 M & ->> M>& -& E- ->>&M>@ +0 1& E& ->>@M>1 - M ME& ->>1M>+ E& E -@

3 P ->>E ( 3 ! ->>

Table 3.3 Gross fixed capital formation, exports, and imports, 1991–96

&' ) * + # $

? # ! ;?= 5O ! ->> @$0-+ @$@ E @$E1& 1$ & @$@1E @$&>> ?* ; = - -@ E @ ->> -0& A# %O ! ->0E -$E+ -$0 @ $ + $@0- $111 $EE> ; = &1 -& & & 00 ! %O ! ->0E -$00 -$>1@ -$E1& $ -> $ & $&1 ; = &> ,- & -1 - 1 11

3 ->0E ! ) 7 ->>E< ->> ! P ->>E

P " J ! ! . ! , P ! -0 " $ ! ->01 ->>-$ ->01M>& ;) 7 ->>1 $ 0E= P @0 @+ OP $ O P $ ! $ , * # " ! , $ !, !, ! > ! " " ! ->0+ ->01M>- ;) 7 ->>1$ @= ->>-$ . ! ! C ! & $ B " $ , " $ " ->01M>-$ " !! . ! ! , , " O , ; = . , ! $ R ?* " $ "$ ; ! B , = , ! !P ;) 7 ->>1 $ -@= ->01M>- ; . &-=$ ! " # , " 1 " ->0+ ->>-$ ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLICIES SINCE INDEPENDENCE 15

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re-Reform Macroeconomic 7$ 2 7$ and Agricultural Policies !! ! * ->0 $ 5!, !$ " ! ! 0@ ?* ! . ! ; ! = #, " ! , ! $ ->0 M01$ ! "

-- $ 2 H,!H ;->>0$ 1& ,1&+= 16 CHAPTER 3

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

- ->01,>- ,& ;7 ->>+$ . +=$ ! ! 5! " ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLICIES SINCE INDEPENDENCE 17

! -@ ->0-M0@ ! J ! , M-@ ->01M0> $ 4 B " , 4 ! R $ !, ;" # 5!, !! ! . &@ " ->& = , " ! J ! " ! ! ! -@ ->> O P !! $ " ! $ " , !H$ " $ $ $ , !, $ !$ "$ $ $ ! $ ! J ! ( 0+ ! (A 1 ->0> ! -& . ! , . ! ;(= ! " ! R ,A . &@ !$ $ " , !B ->0> " " # !, P $ ! J # 1 " , 0 . H ;K 2 ->>@= @-M+- " # $ " ! , Policy Changes Since 1991 ;(A= ." ->0 ! , . ! # , ! ! !B ! , " # " 5! "R # ! ( ! , ! " , Table 3.4 Nominal and net effective protection coefficients for ! 4 $ !! , major controlled crops, 1989 " "$ ,% , ' ! R , ,- # $ ! ! " "$ , 2H >1 1> O", P EE @@ ! $ !! ? E@ @1 ) >- 1+ ! E &> . ! ! ! " ! 3 ?.. ;->>1=$ 2 ;->>@= ! K ->> ! $ " ( 3 ( ! $ , O ! # < (A , ! , $ 4 , B ! ! " ! # " " ! )

-& $ . ;->>@$ -1E,-10= -@ ->0 ! ! " $ ! !H , J ! 18 CHAPTER 3

Public

awareness

Action programs to publicize economic reform program Implement transparency

•

Social

program

Address social impact of changes Implement social programs

•

Monetary/

financial reform

Deregulate financial sector Deregulate interest rates Increase competitiveness of financial institutions

•

Fiscal

reform

subsidies to public enterprise

for civil service

ECONOMIC REFORM PROGRAM

- reducing

- reducing wage bill

- recovering costs

Reduce budget deficit by

•

y tasks of the economic reform program

Domestic

deregulation

Remove investment sanctions Commercialize the marketing board Decontrol prices Deregulate the labor market

•

• •

Trade

liberalization

Phaseout foreign- exchange allocation system Remove surtax Set appropriate real exchange-rate

•

• •

Figure 3.1 Elements and primar Source: CSO 1991. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLICIES SINCE INDEPENDENCE 19

7 2 P ;. ->>&$ - 1= . ! " * +,-$ # $M N . / 0 1 2./013 N + 4 , 2+4,35 6 7 ./01 ! " 8 0 # +,-$ 99 : & , " Trade and Exchange Rate Policies +,-$ & M*, $ <5 2 !53( = % & R ( N

Table 3.5 Consumer price index, exchange rates, and commercial bank lending rate, 1990–97

./0 ! ) * + # $ 1

> 2?@A993 7<! @55 <77 !?< !?9 7@8 5@ 8?@7 > 2 3 2 3 779 7@ 8 87 8 !? <9< 4 29A993 999 ?79 @85 @@ @7< @?! ?!! > 2 3 M89 M? 7< M8 55 87 > 2 3 @ 55 ? !8! !7 !7@ !7< !<8

, # ( 6 :0D E # E -

5 , 289<3 8 20 CHAPTER 3

% 9M8 2@ #< 3 +,-$ 87 ? 0 8 " = % #5 5 0 !9 & R 59M99 5! 2+0*83, = /F$ 95 8 ( = +,-$ - 0 7 % 9 % N = @5 9M<9 2 E 5 @30 & 2 <9 30 7 O P2( 6 79 573* N@ 7 2( 6 5 !53- - 7 2 3<7 0 7 2 3 2-$3

O P 2$C$3C2$IC$I3 $ $ <7?

!9 $I $I !<! @ 2/- 5!!M!73

@- F%- " 2?<3 62?@3 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLICIES SINCE INDEPENDENCE 21

D & R ? - -$ 0 - -$ -$ J 2 3 = #

2 $IC $I " 3 &0D$4+, O -$ & % 9 =99 & P 23 2/ & ?<93 D 2

$C$3 23 =

2$IC$I3 0 &0D$4+, -$ & R + - -$ 5 & N - !8 - 0 & 88 9 R 5

Table 3.6 Indices of domestic price of exports relative to imports, external terms of trade, and trade policy bias, 1991–95

. ! ) * + #

F 99 988 89 ?!? @5 @8@ 99 ?8 !9 !? ?@ 7 99 <<@ 9!< ?! ??8 ?9?

, # > >,.@

?- = 23 2CK3 22 CHAPTER 3

Figure 3.2 Government budget deficits, 1990–96

14 12.2 12 10.4 10.2 10.3 10 9.5 9.5 8.3 8

Percentage of GDP 4

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Source: Calculated by authors from World Bank 1997a.

2( 6 @930 5 +,-$ 5 " < Fiscal Policy F ?9 ?! /F$ 97 % & R <2 !<3 2 3 2, 83 + < = 98 /F$ !M8<9 / 283 " +,-$ % 2 3 & /F$ ?@M9 75 ,, - %

!< ?9 > 6 9 20D @3 <9E << 52 5 3 & 2 < 3 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLICIES SINCE INDEPENDENCE 23

Table 3.7 Central government expenditure by function, 1990–95

2 ! ) * + #

/ <9! <9 <<< <55 !99 !<8 F 7 !5 9@ ? 97 8 +

, # > >,.@

+,-$ - = P2>,.?53 ! ?M9!5 !M5 O P 2D <<7 2 !53 1 ? 53 !@ 95> < 5 & 2D1 ?3 9M7 " 5 O P !? !! /F$ J 7< 0 /F$ 5 < 0 ?9< ! /F$ 0 !@ < +,-$ 2 0 ,, &0D$4+, - 3 O

< 2( 6 5<3 24 CHAPTER 3

!? 9M97 < 7 " +,-$ 6 2FD630 - : /F$ O P / D +,-$ 6 2/D63 & 0 , 2( 6 5@3 /D6 0 Agricultural Marketing and Price Policy F L % 9 +,-$<< 0 F % 0 % < % F %

Table 3.8 Indices of agricultural prices, nonagricultural prices, and domestic terms of trade, 1991–96

. ! ) * + # $

$ 99 <78 ! ?58

$ 99 !< @8@ <975 <7! << !798 F

. A$ C$ 99 !? 5! 9? 85 95@ ?

, # > >,.@

<<, 2!3 , 283 +,-$ &B!@@ &B!88 < = &B8?@ !&B7< 7 &B9 52>,.@5!3 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLICIES SINCE INDEPENDENCE 25

% - % 2 2&0D->+3 >$03 < ! 7 5! < . &0D->+ ! /D6 & : < = 2, 836 ! % +,-$ F 7M8 = /D6 F = % % /D6 D % /D6 - " % . /D6 + *

Table 3.9 Real agricultural prices by commodity, 1990–96

%% ! ) * + # $

D% 2&BC 3 <<5 < !!7 79! !< !! <5 , 2&BC 3 <99 < !!7 2&C3 @ 9 ! @ 9 9! , 2&BC 3 7?5 757 57< 5< 5?5 7@@ 7 / 2&BC 3 <59 97 ?58 ?95 ?@? !7! <

, # > D1 @ 7 ( 6 @ E # ( 26 CHAPTER 3

Table 3.10 International commodity prices in real terms, 1990–96

%% ! ) * + # $

D% 2BC 3 <@? <@ <8< <55 <87 <? !?< , 2BC3 97 97 9< ? 99 9 !@ ( 2BC 3 !8 !7@ 79@ !@@ !7 77! 58 > 2BC3 @? @99 57< 55 @< ?@< @<< , 2BC3 <7@

, # 0D @ E # F *,

& 0 +,-$ >$0 % !2 3 ( 2D1 ?3 N 2 3 % - F M8 !? ! 78 2>,.@3 & R" 2 3 > 4 8< < = <7 . = 7M8 0

<7- 6 / 283 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLICIES SINCE INDEPENDENCE 27

1,> & R - +,-$ , D 8 & 2 !93 , > & > 0 % & 8 - 9 & = ?9 6 ! 55<@7 9 !!@ N * $ < 5 :7 !75 = < J > < @ 87 = - & 99< = = = -= Land Policy & % @9 & R 2 = 3: !9 = & R <7 28 CHAPTER 3

0 = / 1N N % & = & 9 2 @: D1 ?3 Conclusion +,-$ F & R 0 > 5>/+ 9 & * = < 5 = D - R 9 < ?M ?9 7M8 2( 6 & ,-D @83E > 7 &

A 1991 Social Accounting Matrix and a Multiplier Analysis for the Economy of Zimbabwe

T ! "

A 1991 Social Accounting Matrix for Zimbabwe ! ! "#$ % R ' () "* ' ( ! ' (" % ' ( ' ("% " "* '% +("

%! ""' % ! "% R, - ',-( ',-. +( /0 ',-1( 201 ',-$(" 3 "

#$ 4 5 '+$( '++(4'++( 5 5 6 '++( "

29 30 CHAPTER 4

% % 7 7 8 ) 9 34 ) ": O P O "#? P ! A Macro-SAM for 1991 # $" % '$ : 1""* #. ( " '=,( '6( " % RO P " : 1" ! R ": 9 % 7 =, 0 1""%

' ( =, 6 " 3 8@4

" "3 ! " 6 "% 6 > " % " * '% 1"#(7 4 "

#?: % A'(": 5 , 3 '+(" A 1991 SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX AND A MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS FOR THE ECONOMY OF ZIMBABWE 31

Foreign savings

Capital

Government

Taxes

Domestic Savings

Final goods

Household

Transfers

Earnings

Enterprises

Imports

Rest-of-the-world

Factor markets

Product markets

Exports

goods

Intermediate

Factor payments

Activities

Source : Devised by authors.

Figure 4.1 Economywide circular income flow 32 CHAPTER 4

Table 4.1 Zimbabwe national accounts balance sheet for 1991

, % 3%

% 8@4 "" #?#+1 8 1..$ * 222 4 #/?2 8 $?$+ 3 ./.$ * '+/1+( %&' ()(* , ! " # $ % & ! ' ( ) % & & ! * & + 0 ( ,) ' ' % & ' % & + ' '

% - .+/ 0 % - *1 &00 & 2 *1 00 " 0

" " , % ' (" : " % '5-B(" C ' 5-B ( " % 5-B 5-B" 6 "* 5-B" * ' 7 (" ',-. A 1991 SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX AND A MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS FOR THE ECONOMY OF ZIMBABWE 33

Table 4.2 The structure of the Zimbabwe macro-SAM

0 &' %% 4 - 5 ' % 676&

4 + ; 6 . ( 5" 1 ( ,) 6 ) " 8 < 6 & , 6 & 6 8 ; # ( 6 & 6 8 # # # # & ( ( . ( 6 ) && ) ) . . ; # 6 & ( , 6 & # 7 8 & & )# 8 6/64= 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 & ! # # & ) ) ) )#

+ - * !8 # 0

$ # ! # 3+45 & # ( 3/ 6! 0$0 4 & 7 ! 6! .+/ $0 & # 0 6 # 3 & # 3 & & 8 & # A Micro-SAM for 1991 & .+/ $0 ( 3 % +45 & 9!!7 ) # # & & # 7# # & & ) 3 # 80 . : 8 # 9!!7 8 .+/ $ & ! 7 (.,+ 3+45 8 ! & # & #0 5" & 3 0 6# 7 ! !8 ) # 3 # & & & 8 " 3 5 $2 # & 3 8 & & 34 CHAPTER 4

Table 4.3 Zimbabwe macro-SAM in million of Zimbabwe dollars, 1991

&' %% 4 - 5 ' % 8 676&

4 ' . ' ' '' ' ' , ' ; # '' ' ' '' . M ' 6 ' '' '

+ - . !8 # ! 6! 0 & # 4 ) 6! 400

Cross-Entropy Balancing of ! $ # # the Micro-SAM # > 3 6# ! # 3 # / 6! 0$0 8 ! ! 6# ! 3 3+45 ## 7# .+/ 6! '0$ # # 3+45 0 6# ! & # & 3+45 ! 3 3 8 #0 6# # 0 6# & 7 & +45 && # & 8 & # ? # O 8 P ! 7 !3 && & # ! # +45 # 7 && .+/ !$0 6# & " 7 ! 8 & # +450 6# 8 : # # & ) # # 3 7 ! # # & & ? # &3 && # ! .+/ 0 /# ! 3 $0' 6# " 7 7## & 8 ! 8 & # +45 # ! 3 & && O! 0P # # 3 ) 8 & & # 8 !8 # ! :8 & 7 # # & 7 # & # ! ! !8 # :8 & # 7 .+/ 6! '0$0 & *1 * ! 3 & *1 &00$0 ( # & # 9!!7 # 3 6! 0$0 #

'6# & ? # # # 0 A 1991 SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX AND A MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS FOR THE ECONOMY OF ZIMBABWE 35

Table 4.4 Accounts of the 1991 Zimbabwe micro-SAM: Names and descriptions

9 9

+ , 0 459=. 5? 3=+. 0 ..46 . 459+; 5? 3+; 0 ./= 0 46*61 6 # #

0 41CD 1! '0 ;=+=/ =+.37" # #

0 41(< 1 '0 ;+;;=* +;3# #

0 ;CDC11 C! ##3 , # #

'0 .59 5? 0 ;CD=/ C! 73 0 .6 # # #

0 ./% /# 0 .;/6 ; . / 0 ../ .&& 0 /< 0 .6,4 6 0 *64F * ) 0 .%6 0 (64F ( ) 0 ../6 . 0 (5164 ( ) 0 .+C + 0 +4<(%< + 0 .6/D 6! '0 *+6/.E .# & " '0 ./.1 /# 0 / & # 7

+ - * !8 # 0 36 CHAPTER 4

# 8 " # ! 5 3 3+45 7# # ! & &&3 !8 & 7## & 0 & $ 6# &7 8 !8 =+. & 0 ( - 7# & # # & 3 8 # 0 ( : 3 & 8 #& & # & ? # & 8 & # & : 3 0 0 6# & 3 =+. & 3 : =+. 3 Agricultural Production # & 3 6# & 9!!7 R 7 +; & 8 #7 6! 0 & : =+. & ##8 3 # 3 0 & 7# ! ! 3 4 ) 6! D0 #7 # 3 7 & =+. 3 ! 3+450 ! # ) $0 4 & =+. ? 7 #3 Structure of the 3 Zimbabwean Economy, 1991 ! 7# D8 4& # 9!!7 3 0 8 7 # ? !8 3 =+. ##3 & ##8 ? # ! 7## 3 ! 0 6# 6! 0 #73 & =+. & 3 # & # & & ) # # 3 & & ? # &3 & 80 $ # # 8 6# I ) ! # ! # ' & *1 & 7## 8 )3 &7 !8 2 && ' ) 2 N 8 ' #0 43 ) 2 & & *1 ) 6! 0$0 #8 ## # ! +# 8 & 0 # ? !8 !3 # ! 8 & $ & *1 ! & 7 & 3 ) 7# ! # ) $0 5? # 3 8 $0 6# ) ) & ' & # 3 & 0 = 3 $0 6# 8 & )3 " 8 & && ' & $ ! & $ $ 3 # 0 +# ! $0 # # ) & & 8 # !8 =+. # 3 0 4## +; & 0 ( 3 & & & ) & ? # 8 ! 8 & # 0 & # " 82 A 1991 SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX AND A MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS FOR THE ECONOMY OF ZIMBABWE 37

Table 4.5 The economic structure of Zimbabwe, 1991

% 2 % 2 -. % -. %

5? 0 0 0' # 0 0 0 /# 0 0 0 ; 0 0 0 '0 0 .&& 0 0 '0 6 0 0 0' 0 0 0' . 0 0 0 + 0 0 0 6! 0 0 0 0' 0 /# 0' . 0' /# " 0 0 0 # 0 8 0 5 0 0 0 0 0' 0' /# & 0' 0 0' 0' 0 6 ) 0 0' 0 0' 0 /# # & 0 0 0 0' 0 ? 0 0 0 0 0 /# & 0 0 ''0 0 0 , 8 7 0 . 0 6 0' 1! 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 0' 0 0 6 8 '0 0 0 6 & '0 0 0 6 '0 0 0

+ - . !8 # & # 9!!7 3+450

# 78 # !8 " 8 # #&N +; & & 8 6! 0$ #& & & " 80 . 3 ) N ) & +; # # 0 6! 0$0 6# & 7 N + & " ) #3 !3 ! 7 # & N" & 0 5 # #& & & D " $0 # & & +; & & $ 7# ! 3 & 38 CHAPTER 4

Table 4.6 The structure of agricultural production

6 2 %(

2 2 25 2 25 2 25

5? ' # ! ! /# ; .&& ! ! 6 . ' + 6! ! ! /# . /# " # 8 6 < 9J$ ' 4 # # $ ( =! . =

+ - . !8 # & # 9!!7 3+450 % - +; # 2 =+. 3 0 % ! # & +; 0

& 3 & # 3+45 & & # 3+45 # # 3 4 ) 6! D0$0 0 6# 7 # =+. &3 ! +; & # # 7# ( & 9J' 9J 3 6# +45 # & # 3 80 6# 7## # 0 6# & # # & & # 3 3 # # !8 # #8 ! # 8 # & # 7 # D " 8 3 & 8 !8 # 78 # (.,+ ? 0 6# 7 ! # 3 D " !$0 C! 73 # # # +45 3 # # # 3 & # && # & 9J'0 6# 7 7 # & & ! 7 0 # =+. ! ##3 6# & # # && 8 # # 7# 9J 9J 0 1 # 80 A 1991 SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX AND A MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS FOR THE ECONOMY OF ZIMBABWE 39

6# & & # # 3 0 " =+. & # & # 9!!7 # 8 3+45 4 ) 6! D0$0 6# 7 & 7 0 , & ! 73 # # 8 # # 8 & 7 # & & &$ $ & 3 7 & & # # # $0 6# =+. ##3 # # # 0 +# # 3 & & 3 # & ) 7 # 3 ! & $ 3 & # & ! # # ! $0 & & # 3 ( ! # &

Table 4.7 Household expenditures, by household groups

2 .

2 : : / 2 2% % % 2 % (

5? 0 0 0 # 00 /# 0 0 0 0 ; 0 0 0' 0 0 .&& 6 . + 6! /# 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 /# " 0 0 0' 0 0' # 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 /# & 0 0 0 0 '0' 6 ) 0 0 0 0 0 /# # & '0 0 0 0 0 ? 0 0 0 0 0 /# & 0 0 '0 0 0 , 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 . 6 '0 0 0' 0 0 1! 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0' 0 '0 6 & 0 0 '0 0 '0 =# & 0 '0 0 0 0' + 0' '0 0 '0 0 + 0' 0 0 0 0 ( ) '0 0 0 0

+ - . !8 # & # 9!!7 3+450 % - ; # 0 40 CHAPTER 4

& # ##3 # # KL 4 KM F $ 7 ' $ &7 !8 ' $0 7# K & & # ' ')$ F )# & & )3

6# # # && ')$ 4 # )3 & 8 # 0 && ) 6# 7 7 # # # 4 ) 6! ! 7 & # .0$0 ) & ! 3 + & K : $ 8 - 7 ' # &3 3 # K L ( 3 4 $ F L 5F $ 0 ;# 3 # #

# & 7# 7# 5 # +45 ) # & 2 # 8 4 ) 6! *0$0 ,: $ ! ! 7 &3 # 7# 8 &

6! 0'$0 ) 50 4 # &3 & K & 8 # F # ) I 3 SAM Multiplier Analysis 8 $ ! 3 * & : $0 ,# # ) ! 4 ) N # # / $ # # 73 N# ! +45 ! 3 !8 ) 3 3 & & # I # 3 0 6# 3 8 7## # " !I # & 3 # # & +453! 8 ) ! # & 8 3 8 8 " 0 6# 3 I ! & 3 ' # 93 8 && ) 8 !!7 +45 ' ) ) 3 & & 3 0 D 3 ! 3 & $ # 3 ! & 8 # 8 ) 8 # 6! 0$0 4 88 # 7 &) $ 0 6# +45 $ # : 8 $ # : 8 # & & # ) $ ) #" && & 83 # ) & # 3 7# # 3 / 2 # & 3 ., 3 ! :!$ 0

4 68 $ # 3 :! & ) # & : 8 I 0 . & +45 ., # # # 7 ! # # 0 A 1991 SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX AND A MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS FOR THE ECONOMY OF ZIMBABWE 41

' %% & # # 0 6# 3 D # ! # 3 & # & # # & # +45 & # # # 9!!7 # & # +45 #7 00 %!8 # 80 ,# 8 # 73 # # N+; =+. ) # $ &37" 73 ! # 3 && & ) 3 3 # N# & 8 # # 7# =+. 7 > 7 0 ##3 ! # # 0 6# & 3 ( +; & # # ! & ! & & 7# 3 *1 # # & =+. & 0 8 & & # R 3 6# # *1 !8 & 7#0 # # # 3 8 & & 3 (+ %%% $0 ( # # 3 , & # & < #78 & 7# ) # # 3 9!!7 ! & # " 8 & $ 8 ## *1 # && & 3 7# # # & 7# ! 0 + 3 ! 7# # 3 8 & # & 0 & 8 # 6# +45 ! +; & 3 # 8 N & # 3 :8 0 5 O # N& # &3 $ #

& & ) I &3 &! & !

Figure 4.2 Multiplier analysis results : GDP effects of a one billion Zimbabwe dollar increase in household income

2.000 1.712 1.521 1.500 1.334

1.111 0.999 1.000

Z$ billion

0.500

0.000 LSC-farm LSC farm- High-income Low-income owner/manager worker Smallholder urban urban

Source : Authors’ calculations from Appendix Table C.1. 42 CHAPTER 4

#78 & # 7 83& 8P 3 0 0) )$ & ,# " $0 # ! 8 3 6# 8 & 3 2 & O 7 P 0 - 0) )$ 9!!7 # # ) & & # # 8 0 & 8 ? $ 3 ) ! $ D # ) #7 ) &7 4 ) 6! *0 # *1 && 3 # # $0 & ) I 6# && *1 & 9J ! # & # # & ) 3 7# # ! 3 I # &7 #7 00 ,# 3 & )3 7 # & # && ! 7- & # 3 0 $ & # 0 6# 7 # # " 8 2 # # & & # # 0 / $ & & & # # 8 2 0 +# & 0 ! )$ & # ? # # *1 02 # 8 2 # ! # 9!!7 &

Figure 4.3 Multiplier analysis results: GDP effects of alternative agricultural growth paths

2,500.00

2,226.67

2,000.00 1,897.85 1,712.70 1,736.10

1,500.00 1,394.68

1,000.00

500.00

0.00 Agriculture Smallholder farms Foodcrops Traditional export Nontraditional crops export crops

Source : Calculated by authors from Appendix Table C.1. A 1991 SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX AND A MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS FOR THE ECONOMY OF ZIMBABWE 43

3 +; & !3 & 0 & $ 6# & # #8# & 9J0 7# # 3 & " & 3 80 3 7## # 8 & +; 3 ! & # & 8 & !8 & 3 ## # # & =+. & # # ) ! 0 0 $ 7## ) # 6# ) O P 0'$0 & # 8 7 *1 #3 # & 7# " ? !# # # 0 6! 0 # ) 7## =+. & # & & 0 # # & # ( & 8 ! ! 0 4 3 # 7# # 7# ) ! & =+. ) 3 I # 7 > # # # +; 8 & # # &3 # # & !# ! 7## !3 0 =+. &3 8 & 7" # # 7# ! 3 & 8 93 # 7 7# # 7 !!7 0 6# *1 & # # # # # ! 0 "!8 ! N! # 3 7 # 8 & # 3 N 0 4 ! #7 0 ) & 3 # # ) 0 , 8 # # ##3 # & & & & # 3 # 8 & =+. # # 7# # ) # & # )3 ) 7 # 3

Table 4.8 GDP and household income effects of a one billion Zimbabwe dollar increase in exogenous income along alternative agricultural growth paths

& % 3%

2% 4 6 , & % . .

'0' 0' '0 '0 0 0$ 0$ '0$ 0$ 0$ +# 0 0 0 0 '0 0$ 0 $ 0$ 0$ 0$ =+. 7 > '0' 0 0 '0 0 '0$ 0$ '0$ '0'$ 0$ =+. &37" '0 0 0 '0 0 '0$ 0$ 0$ '0$ 0$ C! ##3 0 0 '0 0 0 0$ 0$ 0$ 0$ 0$ C! 73 '0 0 0 0 0 0$ 0$ 0$ 0$ 0$

+ - . !8 # & # 9!!7 3+45 ) 4 ) *$0 % - * # & ! # # 0 =+. 3 0 44 CHAPTER 4

" !3 & ! 6# & 80 8 ! # ) & 6# # 3 !8 3 !8 ! & +; & # &&3 # # # 0 ( 8 ! & & # # 0 ( # 73 ! # # 3 & # !8 # !3 3 ) N7## ! & +; # # ) ! & ) ## & # # ! N7 # # # # # 0 ( 7 :8 && & )3 # # & =+. & &3 7# 9!!7 0 8 && # & 8 & # 6# 9!!7 +45 8 & 7 =+. # # ! & &8 # " & ! ##3 # # 80 ! 7 # 8 4 7# # ? & " 7 & +; # # ! 7 # +; 73 ! # # 0 6# 3 *10 6# 8 # 8 8 & & # & # # & # & # ) & 3 # +; # ) !# 7# :80 ( # ) N && & 80 # &3 # ., 8 N & 3 & & 7# 3 8 3 # ) & 8 # ! & & # 7 =+. # " & # # # 0 " 0 -

A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Zimbabwe

C R !!" !!#$ % &'($ ) '($ * % + , N .N % . "! , % .) !! * . % ) +* & '($ "/ 0 ) + .* % ) *1 % ) + *# ) *2 )3,' 4% 3,' % . * " ) % % *

"!& '($ !5#,67 + !58 )9 : & . !!;* % !!8 )9 : & . !!5*< % %

45 46 CHAPTER 5

& Activities and Commodities ),2* % 6 R % )3,'* ! % & 3,' N ,67 N,2 )7 < '($ !!;*& ,67 % . ,67 !! & ' % . ,67 ) ';* '($ & = % ,23,' '($ 0 % + % + > % % % !! % . , % % % + % 3,' D % % % 6 1 ZimCGE Model Features ,67 ! 7. % & % % % % % )'$,* % )3 * & O P ) E # * <% ,2 3,' % ' 9 O P . % % ) % %. )E % *8 2 #"*& + N % B % ( 7% . F )E #* %% ) E 6 ) !1!* *

8< , A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR ZIMBABWE 47

Figure 5.1 Nested production functions in the ZimCGE model

Output (Leontief)

Value-added Intermediate (CES) (Leontief)

Sectoral inputs (CES) Labor Capital Land

Imported Domestic

Source : Devised by authors based on the ZIMCGE model.

Figure 5.2 Price transmission mechanism in the ZimCGE model

PE pwe Export price PXD=PXS PXAC EXR, te, and Average Price of Output commodity C Marketing margin PDS price by activity A for exports Domestic supply price

Domestic PA marketing Price of margins PDD activity A Domestic demand PQ EXR, tm, and price ica PVA Compositite WF Marketing margin Value-added good Factor prices for imports price PM price pwm Import price

Source : Devised by authors based on the ZIMCGE model. 48 CHAPTER 5

Figure 5.3 Price transmission of maize with maize tax and grainmilling subsidies

gmtax PE pwe Export price PXD PXS PXAC Average price paid Price of EXR te, and Output by GMB commodity C Marketing margin PDS price by activity A for exports Domestic supply price Domestic PA marketing Price of margins activity A PDD Domestic demand PQ PQBAR EXR tm, and price ica PVA Composite Subsidized WF Marketing margin Value-added good price of maize Factor prices for imports to grain price PM price millers pwm Import price gmlsub

Source : Devised by authors based on the ZIMCGE model.

!$ 3 # ) ) ! ! ! " # $ $ % R # 4 -1 5 R '((' 4-5R 1 ) ! ) O!P ,# - . '(/00( # 1% R ! '((' # !# 1 2! #N ! % A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR ZIMBABWE 49

* % ! 1 ( ) %4 N7 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 1 1 1 1 2 # % ,#. 1 1 7 )#1'((;'9< ) ' 8 1 1 7 : # 1 # # " # #) # ! 7 1 1 ( 7 " -1 1 : 7 % # # 1 1 9===7 1 1 ''0 - " % R > # 1 1 : 0' 5 1 ) # $ 7 '((9 ! 0 == N '== ) 3 ? 3 1 1 9< 7 . @ # 4# ! ' 1 # 7 9='=== '((' 0 # ! 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 1 : @ -'((; , ; O 1 7 1 1 # # 1 P : # # 7 #

'? -'((;('= O7 1 3 G @Q R # - -$ "P O #1 P 0) ! -'((;;=M;' # 7 50 CHAPTER 5

N R 1 1 N # 1 1 '''; ) # $ 7 # # # # " '((' 5 1'((9 # ! 4 $ # : ! 7 # ! ) : # $ ) 1 7 : >#<= G $ # #1 D . E E ) : # : '((' 'F; 1 5 ! # # - '((; ) # ! , ) ( 1 1 N G:7 ! 4# # -1 ) 1 ) N " I '((= # 1@ ) # H # 7 # 1 1 4 # '((( -1 ?- 4

) // % /' : 5 1'((90< ) 7 1 < ) # '0 0/ A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR ZIMBABWE 51

# ! # ? # 1 ? # # ! # 1 # ! !

+ ) ) 90 " " ' 0 !! . '(/( ! (=

;4# ! # # # # ! # 52 CHAPTER 5

Table 5.1 Definition of variables, parameters, and indices in the ZimCGE model

;

+ NN J. !

K- K NNM K-

K K! NNM K !

KL K

KL5?.$ $ $ #

4-785$ . $ #

KJ, ?#

KJ ?# #

4.D)?J$ )! $

K,, , M

K, M

KJ? K #

K? >#

KE? E

2 ?# K ! NM ,K ! 2 3+

L? ,#

L2 , #

LD)

LJ? > #

LJ?- -1 # NNNN LJ?2 > #

L, ,

L !

L-

L) ) % * A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR ZIMBABWE 53

Table 5.1—Continued

;

4 0) +

N2 2 NNN L2 2

N #

). ) NNNN ,:)?J ! NNNNN ,)?J?,I ,! NNM ?,I # 3 #

: : !

L: : N4 4# 4 4# !

L4 4# NNM 4?,I 4# 4?E 4# #

LDE 2! # NN ?,I # ! DE) ) # # NNN L,) # 1 ?ED4 )# # 2?E 2 #

)

) !

) α δ $ ρ , !

θ $ N #

! !#

α #

δ $ #

ρ # ! % * 54 CHAPTER 5

Table 5.1—Continued

;

% *

, ! α ) δ ) ρ ) ! 5 α ? 5 δ ? 5 ρ ? !

" "

! )!

)

=' ='' # !=

! ,!

- # / γ $/ 7 / β $/ -

" ! #

" # ! #

4 ?# G ! 0 ! ) ! G ' ?! 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 , # :

G %4 DG ? OP ! ! A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR ZIMBABWE 55

Table 5.2 Price equations

-< ,%

: 69: ⋅⋅ %7 * 8#7 2 ) ⋅ )$ '

0 69 ⋅⋅ 8#;2 ) )$

2⋅⋅⋅ 226'' 2' 7 : 2:

2=#<$ 6 2 < ⋅ %;&:1>=<$ * ;

8'⋅⋅⋅286' 2' 7 2 9

8<⋅%7 &#-8 < *68'< F

''=+ ' 2 ) ⋅ ) <

6∑θ $⋅ 8, $ /

? 6 ⋅⋅⋅ % ; 0 *;∑ $ 2 %; &:1>= <$ * (

,46∑ ⋅ 2 '=

'' '46∑ ⋅ '

G %4

# 4-5! $ $ ! ) # # #! K? " ( '= '9 # 9 " < #?

K,, # K, 1 # " ' < " '= ! " / '= # # " / 3 !

9) $ $ . '(( 56 CHAPTER 5

! . + $ ) 9 " " $ ## " '' ) !$ # " '; 21 " '9 ) ! " 'F # O1!P # 2 " '0 ' # #?" '< !K # 1 # R ? #? " '/

F ! LJ ,K # # ! ) 1 ) 1 % ! 4 $ 290 ) ! 9

Figure 5.4 Flow of goods in the ZimCGE model

Home consumption QAH(A,H)

Final Production of demand Domestic commodity C QH(C) QINV(C) QG(C) activity output by Activity A PQ(C) QA(A) PA(A) QXAC (A,C) PXAC(A,C) Imports QM(C) PMC

CES Composite Marketed good production QQ(C) PQ(C) QXACM(A,C) Domestic CES goods QD(C) PDD(C) Intermediate Aggregate CET inputs goods QX(C) PX(C)

Exports QE(C) PE(C)

Source : Devised by authors based on the ZIMCGE model. A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR ZIMBABWE 57

Table 5.3 Quality equations

-< ,%

; ;ρ 6α ⋅⋅% δ 2! * ρ '0 2 ∑ $ ' −−'

9!⋅=⋅−⋅⋅⋅ ?' + 0 αδ 2! −ρρ ⋅⋅δ 2! −−ρ ' ' ∑ ) ) ) 6 ⋅ 24- ∑ $ 2 ';

6θ ⋅ 28, $ 2 '9

6 ; 'F 28,: $28, $28,! $

' − ;ρ 28 6α ⋅ %δ ⋅ * ρ '< ∑ 28,: $

; ρ ; ; ;;ρ 6 ⋅⋅αδ% ⋅ ρ ⋅ δ⋅ '/ 8, $8 ∑ 28,: * 28,: $

ρρ 6αδ⋅⋅ @ 7% ; δ * ⋅ ρ '( 28 2 2' A

6 0= 28 2'

6 7 28 0002 2' 0'

;δ 2 62' ⋅⋅% *% * ρ ; 00 δ '

5 5 5 5 ρρ 5 ; ; 6αδ⋅⋅ @ 7% ; δ * ⋅ ρ5 22 2: 2' A 0

6 22 2' 0;

5 δ '' 2: 62'⋅⋅ 5 % *% ⋅*7ρ 5 09 ; δ5 : 6 % ⋅⋅⋅7 7 * 2 ∑ $) 2: ) $) 2 ) $) 2' ) 0F )

G %4 58 CHAPTER 5

" 00 " 0/ !# $ # .> " 0( ! ! # ! ) ) ? # ! " 0 ?- 5 # ! " 09 ! $ # 8 ?,I ,)?J?,I F ) " ) =' # $ " " @#O P 3 # ! O# P#' " 0F # " = # 1 ! ! !# ) 1 ! 1 : 1 1 ! 7 29; " ' ) %4 # ()# + ?- ) 9; ! )1'((F " ) N # # # O2 P # # 2 ! " ,# - 0F # . '(/0;/0M;/9 " " 0 9 # ! # 2 3 4# ! ! % ! ! ! ! .> 2! # ! " ## ; F " 0< # 4?,I 4# # " 9 ! .> A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR ZIMBABWE 59

Table 5.4 Income and expenditure equations

-< ,%

6 9! ⋅⋅ 2! ;,4 ⋅⋅ 0 2! B! ∑ $ $ 0<

6 ⋅⋅% ; 8# * 0/ B4! $ / $ B! $

B4 6∑∑B4!$ 777 #44 $) $+ $ ⋅ 8# 0( )

6 ⋅⋅⋅@%; 'C * %; '8'C ⋅ #44 $) / $) ) ) / 0 ) =

; ' D 8⋅⋅ ) ) * B4 ) ; $) ⋅8# A

D /6% ; ∑/$/ *@%%;'C⋅⋅⋅⋅)/ * % ; '8'C / 0/ ' ; ''D8⋅⋅ ) / * B4 /; $/ ⋅8# A

⋅⋅⋅6 γβ/ 7/ % ; ⋅28,! ;;*⋅γ / 2$/ 2D 2 // D / ∑8, $ $) ∑2 ) / 0 $) )

B&6∑∑ % '8'C ⋅⋅⋅⋅⋅/ 07'D8 ) * B4 7 0 2 2 2: 7 + 0⋅⋅∑∑ ? 7 ⋅⋅⋅ 9: 8# 0 28 7,4 ⋅∑ ⋅⋅2! 7∑&#-8 ⋅ 8 ⋅ 7 +$ ⋅ 8#

&6∑∑2⋅⋅ 2& 7 $+ 7 $+ 8# ; 7∑∑&:1>>=$ ⋅⋅2 $ ⋅2

6&'C ⋅ 9 2& 5

&?6B&;& F

64'C ⋅ < 24-? 5 +

4-?6∑2⋅%7 24-? 2' * /

?4-&6∑ 'C ⋅⋅) %; '8'C ⋅/ 0;'D8 ⋅ ) * ⋅B4 ;= 7 &&?7!?⋅ 8#

G %4 60 CHAPTER 5

" F # 1 1 1 ! 7 1 ?,I 1: # 3 "# ) ! # ! ) " ; # " < " R ! # ! 2 # # " ) )# " / # # # # # N ! K# J. # # ! # 2?E ) ! '((' + ! ! # # # ) 99 " ## " # 1 " ;; # ! " ;= " # ) O# " " # # P # 2 # # 1 # ! Calibration of Model " ;' ;0 2 1 Parameters ) ! %4

Table 5.5 Market clearing equations

-< ,%

6 7 7 7 72' 7 ;= 22 24- ∑2D$/ 2& 24-? 2 / 6 2! ∑2! $ ;'

7 6 2! "2! " ∑ 2! $ ;0 $

⋅⋅7 76 7 77!? ∑∑∑∑∑9: 2: $ $ 9 2 $ +$ ;

?4-&64-? ;;

G %4 A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR ZIMBABWE 61

1 4 ? - " ) # # 4?- F ?- ) # ) E 9F 1 ) ) ?- # " # # 4 % # ? # ,#. )#1'((/ O! P ! ) ) 3 ;

1 % ( ) < ) '(('?- 1 " # $ ?# N # " #N # ?- # # # 1 ? " @ ! # 1 # ) ( ) 1 ) ) ? $ # " @ ! #

Table 5.6 Production and trade parameters by sector

- &% - %< % 2 -2 -6 <%

? =/ ;9= 09 '= - =9 '' ;= =< 4 '9 > '9 '// ;= =< )! =9 009 ;= =< > =9 009 ;= =9 2$ =9 009 ;= '= > =9 009 ;= =( '9 '9 ) =( K # '9 K## '9 =<9 '= '=

F) 4?-# <# O # P ## ## 1 ? ! 62 CHAPTER 5

7$ # Table 5.7 Allocation of cropland for large-scale commercial and 7 smallholder farms, by crop $) 9< & 4) " ( ) ! %% % 2% % # ! #) -$ '9' '; = ;0 1 > '= /(= ! : ''( 'FF ) < " ) 9 ! ) 9/ 4 9 ';/ F= 00< 0 + ( ! 0 ) 99 ! # > '9 = # ) 9=' 'F; !) ;< ?- # # ! # G 5 1'((') F ? ! / 0) / ( ) # # # # O ) " ?- ! # 1 ! ?-

5 ) %4 # #" # ! # : K ! # 1 1 '(/= !# ) ;< ) #! : # 1 " 1 ! 1

? # " # ) #

# " ! ?- ! ! # # Agricultural Bias of Trade and Exchange Rate Policies ! ) ! " ?K % A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR ZIMBABWE 63

Table 5.8 Tariff and marketing margin rates

=( % 6 2 % -. %

-$ '(/ '0F '/0 ' F '</ > '</ '0 '/= : 00F ' / 0;; 0 0 0;; '; ) 0;; '<' 4 0;; '/; 0;; ' F 0;; 'F( ) 0 ; ' < 0;; '/0 > '(; 0=; > #1 0<< 0'' 2 '(' 2 '9 - 0;; '=; '/ (< 4 <0' > 0;0 '; = 00( )! 0</ '0< '/ 'F' > 0< <0 '/ '09 2$ '9= ''( '/ 0(' > 0 9 'F' '/ ' ( ) K # K## '';

G % ?-

) '=== ) ) 9( @ # # ## ! ) # '=== # # ! 5 0==' KJ " ! LJ #) ! 9( # ! << # # ! # ) #! 64 CHAPTER 5

Table 5.9 Agricultural terms-of-trade index under various policy scenarios

6 % .%

2 2 2 2 2; 2; 2;

-$ '=;; '=9F '=;0 '=;; (<9 '=0F '= F '=;/ ( 0 '= F (0' /<' > '=0 '=;; /0' '=0 (9= <(( : '=0< '= 9 '==0 '=0< ( ; (;F '=< '' ( '=/0 '=< (<< '=( ) '=9F '=/9 '=9/ '=9F (90 '='/ 4 '=;; '=F( '=;0 '=;; ((0 '=90 (/( (;0 ((= (/( '=0( (F= '=;( '=FF '=;( '=;( (;0 ((0 ) '=<F ''=; '=/= '=<F '''< '0'F > '=;; '=9= '= ( '=;; (< '='9 '==0 ((= '==' '==0 (=/ (=0 > #1 '='F '='9 '='9 '='F (0( (;; 2 '=09 '= 0 '=0 '=09 ( F (F/ 2 '=; '=9< '=;' '=; (</ '=0/ ) '=;< '=F= '=;; '=9/ '=0F '=<<

G %4 DG ) !"'== %! %! %! E %! E % E % $!

? # # # # ! ! ! # ! # % ) ; ? ! # 50==' # " ! 1 $ 1 4 1 !1 1 Conclusion #1 )$ %4 # A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR ZIMBABWE 65

"# 1 # % ! ) - # '((' # 4?-@ ## 1 ?- ?K @ # ) # ?- # " /

Effects of Policy Reforms

%4 $ " T 3 N N # ! 1 # ) #O! P N $ # ! ! $ 1 N

The Policy Experiments ? $ ?K, ! $ '((' # 0= !N 4 ! ?K #'< '((; ) # ! O# P 4?)) '((9 0/ N 3# ?K ! %-K.) # 3 # 3#. " ! # '((F9 '9 = 9= 8'((F # $ ) ! # # # % 3! 7 N 1 1 1 #) $ 1 # # # 1 % 1

66 EFFECTS OF POLICY REFORMS 67

> # $ " N # -# # # #N # # $ 1 ! : # " % $ ) $ G ' .# # @ # 0 $ " 3 % ? '= @ , ! # 3# 1 3 ) ! , O $ P N # $ % $ 1 1 # 1 " $ $ ? 3 ?K ? $ 4-5 $ $ '((' ! 3 # # $ $ # ! 1 $ ) 4 % < *( L " " 7 ! " ='=@ # 2?E ! ! : ! " # " ! $ #5 # 44% < / O? # < ) *( $ $ ! # # # #

# # 444 % < / # < ) 0 # ) *( 1 ! # ! 68 CHAPTER 6

! N 7 7 H ? N 1 ## # 4?E !# # / ! D! : # $ # ) ! : N 1 ! 2 7 1# # # # $ 7 9 ) : # R ! 7 # $ 1 # # # 7 ) 5 # 5 1'((9 ) 1 : ! 7 $ 7 ) # :

7 4?( 7 ? # 09= 7 99< ## 7 $ # $ 7 09= : # % ) O7 (<'F ?P ! 7 ! %P = # 7 P%' 2 7 ) # # : ) 0= 7 : # ! 7 $ !7 . '((= ) # $ O7 5P # 7 " # 8 $ 7 (

/O? 3 !P # #! ! (K >'((F ; O P '(('% 7# '(/ M(' 2# # $ '= 1 # ) ## %P'=(F # %P'= $ EFFECTS OF POLICY REFORMS 69

?( 7 5 7 # '((' ? ! <= # $ 7 N'''; ) N 7 %P9== 9==F $ E : ;0

?444 48( 2 Simulations ) F' ) $ % $ E # ! 4,K ;; # 4,K (= ) %4 ;= ) !

Table 6.1 Trade liberalization, maize price decontrol, and income tax adjustment scenarios

2% %

2 2 2

4 ;; ;;< ;;F ! 099F 09F0 09F' 0 ;F 0 90 0 90 ! <;9 <9F <9< ? /(( ('' ('; 7 '=F< '=F0 '=F9 ;;0 ;(< 9= . ? F< <= =/( 7 H ;'/ ;'0 =; 7 1 ( < '=' '='F 0'0 0;F 0F' : /9

G %4 DG ) $ $ ) $ $ ! 3

;=D ! # # '0'/ 70 CHAPTER 6

<; 4?)) '((9 $ !! ! 0 9 09F # 7 # : # ! # 77 4,K 7 : : : # ! # # " ! $ % : # ! ) K# ## $ K $1 ) F0 E 7 # $ ? # # 4,K ! ! # ) F' ! ? # 7 1 #4,K4,K D 7 H 7 ! : # 4,K 7 $ @ " 1 $ # D " # ) # # 7 # $ 9 # '0 %P0/; > # $ # # # # " % ! %P<9 ) $ # # # ? 7 15 # E ! 4,K ! ! 4,KN# # # # O 7 1?) # P ! 7 # 7 # %P;(' %P' '( D : # # '((' E EFFECTS OF POLICY REFORMS 71

Table 6.2 Alternative land reform scenarios

2% %

2; 2; 2; 2;

4 M'F= =0; =F 9=0 ! M<<' '0F 0=(< 09<0 M='' ==0 0 0< 0 /0 ? M9<9 =0/ 0; '==' 7 M('< M==; M' 9 (;F 9< ''< '0<< ''9' . ? =F; =00 =F9 '; 7 H /9 ='/ 0;= =;< 7 1 M'0F' === M9; ( ' =0; ='= ;90 ;/( : M'0F =' M'F9 =/0 7 M'=0 =/F 0;< ;F/

G %4 DG E 7 1? E 7 15 E 1? E 15

! # $ ) 1 1 ) # # E E 4,K ! " ) ) F0# 7 5# 7 ? 3 1 $ $1 ! 1 3 ) E# # 4,K # " 7 % : # ) $ ! - 4 # # "G '((F ! 7 1: ) %4 '((' = # # ) ! $ ! $ 72 CHAPTER 6

Table 6.3 Removal of current fiscal deficit scenarios

2% %

2; 2>

4 M='; ;;F ! M='9 09F= =/0 0 9' ? ''0 ('F 7 '= '=FF ' < 9=< . ? = = M=<9 7 H '00 M'<' 7 1 ' F '='( =9< 0<' : M= ( M';= 7 ==0 099

G %4 DG E 4# ! J E

) F 5 # # " ! # E E 4,K ! ) # =0 : # % : 4 # ' # % '((' D # " # ) $ $ # ! 3 J # 4,K 4,K # $ # ) OP # " % # ) 1 # ?- $ 1 ) F' ## $ #4,K 1 4,K 0

Conclusions

'(/= # " 3N # N # 3# % K F # ! # # # ! '(/= '((= 5 1'((9 ? # 1 '(/= # # # % # # # ? % '(/= # # ! # # #"-# '(/= '((=

Macroeconomic Policy and Agricultural Performance 1 " % R # ! '(/=) ! # # ! ! $ ) # # ! R ! # 8 # '(/= # # # # # ! # # -# '(/9 # ! " # 1

73 74 CHAPTER 7

) Foreign Trade Regime, Rural Incomes, and Equitable Growth '(/= # # 3# # " # # " % '(/= # ## ! # ! 7 $ # " # '(/F(' 1 ! ! ! 1 ! ?K %- K.) # 1 8 # # '(/= # % 5 '((F 5 # $ '((= ## # " ! 1 # # % # # # 1 '((' ! ?K '((9# ) %4 L # @ # # ! # ! ! 1 $ ) # 4,K ! ) 1 ! % # # 1'((' 3 ! #" 4,K : # # " CONCLUSIONS 75

# ! Complementary Policies # $ Toward Equitable Growth ) %4 1 ! ) # # # 4,K : # " % $ # $ 2 7 # # # ! : # 7) " # $ ! # 4,K " # O) %4 # # # # 1 " ! ! # ! # # ) # ! 1 $ # # % ! ! '((' : $ # 1 # 5 ! ! %4 ! # ! # $ ) # " % ? 7 # $ # ! # ## " 4,K # ) # ) 1 $ $ " ! " $ ! % # ! 76 CHAPTER 7

# # # # # ) # K # # #! # $ "3 ! # ! #" $ ) " '((' # " # ) $ ? # # # R # # # 3# ? # # 8 %4 # # $ 3# # " # ! ! $ # " " ! # ) The Lessons Learned and " The Way Forward to % Equitable Growth ) ! % # # : % # > 7 # # R ! 1 # # ? $ ) # ! ) # " $ # % ! # # " # ) # '((= 1 ?, # # " # # #) CONCLUSIONS 77

! # ) % # # R # ) # $ # ? $ # 4-5 ? $ $ ! $ -1 # $ 1 ) 8 $ # # $ 1 ## % ? # $ # # '((9 . % ! # ) F $ # ; $ # # " ) # ) # ## ! : # '((9 1 " # 3 # 7 1 # " ) % 1 ! ) # # ! 8 # ! ) 1 1 % # # : # ? 78 CHAPTER 7

# ) # # 1 $ .1 R '((/ ) 1 3 % # ! 1 '((0 '((9 1 # ) # ) F ! # ! # #1 "? # # ) 1 4 % # # # # # ) # ) " # ) # 1 " 1 # , " # '((F 4,K ) F ? # # 1 '((= '((F ) # 1 # # " # # #$ 1 1 # 1 ) # # Postscript # # % # # 3 CONCLUSIONS 79

'((< # 2 # #8P9== 0=== # ) 1 $ % R ## ,. # ,. # 0' ?R ! 'F 0=== 0==' % D# '((<) ) # # #! # ! # # # ) # ! ! ! " " ) ! # ) # ?, 2 # # , # '(/=;' # 4,K 0 '((<3#' '((/'/ ,. '((( 9 1 0=== : # # /0= 0==' % 1 1 4# % ) 3 0=== 1 8P0'= '= 8PF'= F= 0==' # ## % ) # # ! 0M/0 # 0=== # 1 1 0==' 0==' ;0 # !

;' '((=N # N% ! 0=== N ! # ?, ;0) '((= 11 $ 150=== 11 0==' ! %P99G8P' 1/9G' 11 <9G'M'==G' 80 CHAPTER 7

# # ) # # # ) ) 7 )! 5 '((( # " # 3# # 0==' # ) # ) ! # # # 7 #K 4# # # # # ) ! 1 # ) 1 D 7 K 1 ) # # # ! ) ; # # $ 1 # % # 3 # # # !$ ;; ) # #

; ) # " 1 @ ) # # =='M==0 # # 1 # # ! ;;? # # 1 2! 1 1 @ $ 12(3

Zimbabwe Micro-SAM: Documentation and Data Sources

! % T ?- # !

Activities and Commodities % '9 2( N$ #1 N ?- '((' R ' ) #1 # # >'((F '((F ) R ?- $ K? -! - '((;) 5F > ! # E # ! ) '0 @ ! @ # $ @ @ @ # # ## ) ! # 2 , ) -!) ) - -! , - -! '(/= >) >'(// ? !! #! !# #) # # # # '((' '(('

81 82 APPENDIX A

Value-Added # ) ?- G # ! G 7 % G ' 7 1 @0 @ 2 # 1 @ ; 1 @ 9 > '((/ ) << 71 @ F 1 # ?- K ! ;= 1G) 7 1 1 1 1 - # '((; (M'= ) 1 ) # 1 1 ;9 ) # 1 1 >'((<0 7 1 '( ) : '( #G7 0 0 9/ 7 ##? 7 # G ! @ ) ?'$ # 7 Table A.1 Distribution of value-added in the agricultural sector, 1991 7 # ; 7 3?% 7 1 1 4 0F0/; 1 1 D # 000<' ?# ;=' # # 7# 0('/ 7 /;< 7 # 0=<' 7 # # # '=(9 # 7 : - G >'((/ > '((; ? ! 5 '((F '((F

;9 1 1 1 1 1) 3 1 1 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM: DOCUMENTATION AND DATA SOURCES 83

/F '; 0F : @ (9 >'((;) ' 9 @ # # # '== Household Expenditures : # ?- 1 Income Distribution ! 2 ? ! G : @1 7 #>'((;) 9 7 3 @ D ? # 1 7 7 ) # 1 1 >'((F : ! # 1 1 ) ; '< D D 7 ! # ! # : # !# .>D ! 7 # 1 ) 0 D # # 7 'F 4# # # Imports and Exports # ;= ) # 7 2 3 ' > #> '((/ @ # '((;) ' ) ) '=; '=9 5 # K # 0 # ) (= ? 3 D ? # ! ! ) ## -2D 84 APPENDIX A

4?)) ) '((9) ?E' ) $ # ?- Other External Transactions )! ) .> ! # # ! > # # ! ! 2 # # .> ! ! 4# ! R ! > '((/ ) </ ' Investment 0 # ! ; ; 1 # # 0( ) > ! '((/ ) ;' ) F= # @ Government Budget @ ) # .> # .> >'((/) <( <( <'= , # <'= ! ?- # ) ?0 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM: DOCUMENTATION AND DATA SOURCES 85 % * ) # 4# ! ) # ) ) ! ! ) ! ? # # 4,K # # ? $ 1 # #1 #1 # # ) # ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( $ K ! # 4 )!N ,! !Q !# # ? > # # ## ) 1 # ) ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( N# ) <'= ! ) <'= ) <'= 7# # ) <'= ) <( # ! ) <( Q! # ) <( .# ) <( ) <<L # ) <;4,K 1 # ( ( ( ( ( ) 0, ( $ 3 /%,.* ( Table A.2 Data sources for the Zimbabwe micro-SAM Table 2 % - EM%,.F* . 2&=- 86 APPENDIX A % * ? $ ? #1 ? $ # #11 1 1 # , # # ( ( ( ( ( ( 7#1 K ,#1 4 ( ( ( ( ( ( ) '9K ?G ) , G, $ %,. * ( ( Table A.2—Continued Table 2 % $ 3$ /%,.* . 2&=- ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM: DOCUMENTATION AND DATA SOURCES 87 % * ? ?-@ E # ?-R! ? ?-@ !## ) ) ' ) ! 4 ?- ## ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ) ! ) ?- ) 1 )K ! ) ! 4! K # ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ) '=9, ) ) '=;,! ) G ) ?# 1 ) ) ' ?# ) ' ) 0 ) ;? 1 ( /5 3 %,.F* ( ( 4 ) 0) +3 ) I%,.J* ( Table A.2—Continued Table 2 % , ) HIJ ) %,.* ( ( . 2&=- 88 APPENDIX A 51 3 ) ! ? ! # ?- 1 ( ( ( ( ) 1 ) ! ) ! ( ( ( ( ) 9, % ! ) ;) % ) ! ) 0 % ) 9 ?# ) 9 ! ( ( ( /) ; ) /3 E %,.EE* ( G >'((/ >'((F '((F Table A.2—Continued Table 2 % 4 ) 0) +3 ) I%,.J* ( . 2&=- 12(34

1991 Zimbabwe Micro-SAM

89 90 APPENDIX B % * Table B.1 1991 Zimbabwe micro-SAM: Transactions matrix in million Zimbabwe dollars B.1 1991 Zimbabwe micro-SAM: Transactions Table -$7-$: > 7> ::7 & ' :: &=3 &=325 &86 ?-%7 ) &70, ?>4.D7 &70,25 ?-%: 4 7 &5706 ?>4.D: 4 : &570625 & 74 7 ?:>.)7 ?) &6-& : ?:>.): &0,6 &0,625) & 76 & 7625 > 7 ?4.D)7 > : ?4.D): ?>2 7: ?)? ?>)7 > #17 ?>): > #1:2 ?>.K7 27 ?>.K: ?84 ?)>5 2: ?>7ER7 - ?>7ER: 4 ??)7 > ??): )!> 2$ ?2>.7 ?2: > ?>2,K ?2>.: ?>74) ?4.-7 ?-D ) K # ?>-?D K## ?7? ?)J) -$ ?2.) ?),)K > : ?>D ?K85 ) ?K.E 4 >4.D -% :>.) ) >2 4.D) )? >) 84 1991 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM 91 % * '9< ';= ';= Table B.1 Continued Table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able B.1 Continued Table & ' >.K?)>7ER &2:2: &67A2>. &7 0 -D &7 025 & &6 & &625 &7;B &7;B25 &425 &470 &47025 &=, &0= '(; &74 &6->6 ;= ' /'=; 9=9 ' 9 ;(0( ';( '00 676& )$*@1* )C$$*@* ' F' )+#@1 9;(< * @1# +$$@+* *$1@+$ #+$@# )#@+# # @$ ++@*$ *+@*) )C! @ ++#@)! *C1#$@+ C !@1! 94 APPENDIX B '//< '0'< % * /F9F '';99 '=/< 0'0/' ;;( 0=/= '0;9 '(</= ' '(= Table B.1 Continued Table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able B.1 Continued Table & ' ?-%7 ?-%: ?) 76?>4.D7 2:?>4.D: ?:>.)7 67A?:>.): ?>2 7 0?)? ?4.D)7 &6?4.D): 7;B?>)7 425?>):?84?)>5 470?>.K7?>.K: =,??)7 '/ /( 0= 74??): 0==99 6->6?>7ER7?>7ER: 76?2: 4-06?2>.7 7=&, ?2>.: 0F < ?-D ?4.-7 ?>2,K ?)J) 0FF ( 0;9<' (<9 ;FF; 0FF0 9;F9' )>5 9; 1991 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM 97 % * Table B.1 Continued Table & ' >.K ?) >7ER 762: 2:2>. -D 67A4.-7 >2,K 7 0)J) >74) &62.) 7;B>-?D 4257? >D ),)K 470),)K),)K- =,),)K, 0= 74K85 6->6K.E 7?58R7 767?58R2 0F/ 4-067?58R2 7=&, 0='<7?5R ;= ?K7 ;<( F =F0?K: ?K>) '0<0<7?D,7 7?D,: D) 99;( =F:78KK :77> ';( 4>E '' (,)?J 9 /)?J -K)?. F/9?EDE ,)>R '0 ;<.> 0=/=676& / ==/ 0< ;( ' <(' F/9; +#@# ' F0 *+@#) *C) )@) < 9=/ F; ;;0< *+!@ $ ';;( '/<= )@+ '99< $$1@# 00;; 1@! 0<' ';9 '/'0= #@#$ 99'; )C+)!@*1 ; (; 1$$@!! +C # @ 1 )C#) @! 9='; +C!1$@+* ';/ (F C!*#@+ $C* $@## 0;;< '=='F / ; /090 '9/ 0 ' (=0 0(F9; ;09 0 ;/9 ';FF( 0 9< F0;9<' 98 APPENDIX B % * FFF F0 ;/F ;< Table B.1 Continued Table & ' ?-%7 ?-%: ?) -8& 7,2?>4.D7 66?>4.D: ?:>.)7 66-?:>.): 66= 66?>2 :A?)? 0;?4.D)7 &A:2B2?4.D): &A:2B4 &A:2B4?>)7 &A2B?>): &2 ?84 &25?)>5 &76 ?>.K7 ?>.K: ??)7 ??): ?>7ER7 ?>7ER: ?2: ?2>.7 ?2>.: ?-D ?4.-7 ?>2,K ?)J) ?>74) ?2.) ?>-?D ?7??>D?),)K?K85 '=F(0/ '/;F9 )>5 /0F '; ?K.E -% ) >4.D :>.) >2 )? 4.D) >) 84 1991 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM 99 '=< '0 % * /'=;9 '<'(=< /(/;<( F(;< <900( ';/0 :::7, :8.57> Table B.1 Continued Table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able B.1 Continued Table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

Coefficient Matrix for the 1991 Zimbabwe Micro-SAM

102 COEFFICIENT MATRIX FOR THE 1991 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM 103 % * Table C.1 Coefficient matrix for the 1991 Zimbabwe micro-SAM Table -$7-$: > 7> ::7 & ' : : &=3 &=325 &86 ?-%7 ) &70, ?>4.D7 &70,25 ?-%: 4 7 &5706 ?>4.D: 4 : &570625 & 74 7 ?:>.)7 ?) ?:>.): &6-& : &0,6 &0,625) & 76 & 7625 > 7 ?4.D)7 > : ?4.D): ?>2 7: ?)? ?>)7 > #17 ?>): > #1:2 ?>.K7 27 ?>.K: ?84 ?)>5 2: ?>7ER7 - ?>7ER: 4 ??)7 > ??): )!> 2$ ?2>.7 ?2: > ?>2,K ?2>.: ?>74) ?4.-7 ?-D ) K # ?>-?D K## ?7? ?)J) -$ ?2.) ?),)K > : ?>D ?K85 ) ?K.E 4 >4.D -% :>.) ) >2 4.D) )? >) 84 104 APPENDIX C % * ==' ==0 ==' Table C.1—Continued Table ) > > #12 2 & ' - &=3 4 &=325 &86> &70, >.K )>5 &70,25)! >7ER &5706 > &570625 & 742$ ?) &6-&> >2,K 2: >74) &0,6 2>. &0,625 4.-7 & 76 & 7625 -D ) ) ! ==0 >-?D ==0) 7? )J) ) , ),)K ==' ==/K # ),)K- 2.) ),)K, ),)K == K## === ==;7 1 >D =='2 1 == == 1 =0 1 =='7 K85 === ==0 ='9 7?58R2 : 7?58R7 K.E ='< ==' 7?58R2 == > =09 === =='7 == ==0 ==': == ='; ==' ==<7> H- 7?5R :78KK 71 ==< ?K7 =;< ==': ==' == ?K: === ?K>) ==;8 ='0 == 7?D,7 :8.58KK 8 :77> ='= 7?D,: ===4# == :8.57> ='( ==; =;0 ==/ === ==',! ==' D) ! ='; ===! :::7, == ==F ===# # ==F =' 1 === ='( =;=. ='= ==0 ='' ==( =; =';6 4>E === ==9 = 9 ?EDE = < ='= == ==0 ,)?J ==0 === )?J ==0 ='0 == -K)?. === ,)>R ==( ==' .> === ==' == ='' ==F M==F ==' ==< ='' ==< =;; M==9 == ='9 === = ' M=;= 676& ='0 =' == ==' ='0 ='= ==/ === ='/ ==' == @!! ==0 === ==F =' @!! = < ='9 =' ='' @!! = < =' ='= =0= @!! ==' ==( ='= = ( ==0 ==( =;; @!! ='' ==F ==F @!! ='0 ==( = ; @!! = ( ==( ='9 ==< @!! ='; @!! ==9 @!! ==9 ='' @!! =09 @!! @!! COEFFICIENT MATRIX FOR THE 1991 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM 105 % * ==' ==0 =' = ;==' === ==' =='=='=== === ==F ='F Table C.1 Continued Table & ' ?-%7 ?-%: ?) &2:?>4.D7 &67A?>4.D: &7 0 ?:>.)7 &7 025 & &6 ?:>.): & &625 &7;B ?>2 &7;B25?)? &425?4.D)7 &470 &47025?4.D): &=,?>)7 &0=?>): ?84 &74?)>5 &6->6 ?>.K7 ?>.K: ??)7 ??): ?>7ER7 ?>7ER: ?2: ?2>.7 ?2>.: ?-D ?4.-7 ?>2,K ?)J) ?>74) ?2.) ?>-?D ?7? ?>D ?),)K ?K85 ?K.E -% ) >4.D :>.) >2 )? 4.D) >) 84 )>5 106 APPENDIX C % * === ='; ==' ==' === === === === === ==9 ====='=='==' ==0 ==' ==' === ==' ==0 ==0 === =0/ ==' ==' ==0 =='=;' ==' =00 ==' =;0 =0 ='0 === ==F Table C.1 Continued Table & ' >.K?)>7ER &2:2: &67A2>. &7 0 -D &7 025 & &6 4.-7 & &625 &7;B >2,K &7;B25)J) &425>74) &470 &470252.) &=,>-?D &0=7? =='>D &74),)K &6->6 ==;),)K ),)K- ==' ===),)K, ='=K85 === === ==;K.E == =' 7?58R7 === === 7?58R2 ==' ==0 ='= ==<7?58R2 ===7?5R ==' == ==(?K7 = '?K: ==F ='< ==0 == ?K>) ==' =' ===7?D,7 ==' ==07?D,: =' ='F ==FD) ==( === :78KK ==F == = ' =' :77> ='0 = < ==0:::7, ==' ='< = <:8.58KK ==' === ='=:8.57> === ==(4>E = ( ='=,)?J ==0 ='< ==<)?J ==9 ==' ==0-K)?. =' ?EDE ==< =;;,)>R .> 676& == ==9 ==/ ='; ==' ==9 ='9 =9( ==0 =' ==F @!! ==F =0= ==; == @!! =0; ==0 ==/ @!! ==F ==' =0F =9( == ==9 === ==9 @!! ==0 == =0< ==F = 0 ==( ==' =FF ==' @!! ==/ ==F === ==' @!! == === ==F ==' =/9 @!! ==' ='F ==' =9= ==' ==' ='= @!! ==/ ==( === ==9 @!! ==F @!! =' ==; @!! ==0 @!! ==' ==F @!! ==; @!! @!! COEFFICIENT MATRIX FOR THE 1991 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM 107 =9' = % * =/ =/ =<9 ==; =;< ='= =< =9 = 9 Table C.1 Continued Table & ' ?-%7 ?-%: ?) &76?>4.D7 &4-06 &7=&,?>4.D: ?:>.)7 &-8&?:>.): & 7,2?>2 &66?)? ?4.D)7 &:A?4.D): ?>)7 &0;?>): ?84 =3?)>5 ?>.K7 86?>.K: ??)7 70, 5706??): ?>7ER7 74?>7ER: ?2: 6-&?2>.7 0,6 ?2>.: ?-D ?4.-7 ?>2,K ?)J) ?>74) ?2.) ?>-?D ?7? ?>D ?),)K ?K85 ?K.E -% ) >4.D :>.) >2 )? 4.D)>) === === === 108 APPENDIX C % * ==0 ==; === ==0 ==;='= === =09 ==0 == ==( =' ='= ='< ==' ==9 ='0 ==/ ==( ='0 ==9 ),)K- ),)K, K85K.E7?58R7 7?58R27?58R27?5R?K7 ?K: ?K>) === ===7?D,7 ==0 ===7?D,: ==/ =='D) ==':78KK === ='<:77> === ==':::7, ='=:8.58KK =0;:8.57> === ='9 ==04>E ='F,)?J )?J === =0F ==0 =0= ==9-K)?. ?EDE ===,)>R ==0 == =; ='F.> === ==0 ==; ==' =00 ==F ==9 ==F === =9 ==0 ='; =0; ==9 ='/ =09 ==; = = ==9 ==( ==9 ==0 ==; ==0 Table C.1 Continued Table & ' 84 )>5>.K &76?) &4-06 &7=&,>7ER2: &-8&2>. & 7,2-D &664.-7>2,K =0/ &:A)J)>74) === === &0;2.)>-?D =37?>D === === 86),)K === ==' ==' ==/),)K 70, === ==F 5706 === ==9 ='; 74 === === == ==' === === = < 6-& ==' ==( ==; === ==' 0,6 ==/ ==' === === = 0 === ==0 ==/ === ==' === ==' ==; ==' ==' ==' ='< ==' === ==0 =;( === ==0 ==' === === ==' === === === = 0 ==; === ==0 ==' === == ==' === === === ='= ==0 ==0 ==' === ==0 === ==' ==/ ==' ==' === == ==0 676& @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! COEFFICIENT MATRIX FOR THE 1991 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM 109 = / % * =;F =<9 =<' =<< =9/ =/ =/F ==' =/; ?2.) ?>-?D ?7? ?>D ?),)K ?K85 ?K.E -% ) >4.D :>.) >2 )? 4.D) ?>74) Table C.1 Continued Table & ' ?-%7 ?-%: ?) 76?>4.D7 2:?>4.D: ?:>.)7 67A?:>.): ?>2 7 0?)? ?4.D)7 &6?4.D): 7;B?>)7 425?>):?84?)>5 470?>.K7?>.K: =,??)7 0= 74 =;' ??): 6->6 =;; ?>7ER7?>7ER: 76?2: 4-06?2>.7 7=&, ?2>.: ?-D =/; ?4.-7 ?>2,K ?)J) =/' =<0 ='0 =9 = = >) =/0 ==' 110 APPENDIX C % * Table C.1 Continued Table & ' 84 )>5 >.K 76?) 2:>7ER 2: 67A2>. -D 7 04.-7 >2,K &6)J) 7;B>74) 4252.) >-?D 7? 470>D ),)K =,),)K 0= 74),)K- 6->6),)K,K85 76K.E 4-067?58R7 7=&, 7?58R2 ==<7?58R2 7?5R ==F ==/?K7 ?K: ='=?K>) ='97?D,7 ==;7?D,: D) ===:78KK :77> ='F:::7, :8.58KK :8.57> ='<4>E ,)?J ='<)?J =='-K)?.?EDE ='F,)>R .>676& =' ==9 =;0 @!! ==F ='< @!! === ='' @!! ==' ==( ==' === @!! ==' =' @!! ==' ==' ==; @!! ==0 === @!! ==' ==' @!! ==9 @!! ==( @!! @!! ==' @!! @!! ==; ==' @!! == @!! == == ='0 ==9 ='= ==( = ' = / COEFFICIENT MATRIX FOR THE 1991 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM 111 % * =( '== Table C.1 Continued Table & ' ?-%7 -8&?-%: 7,2 66?) 66-?>4.D7 66=?>4.D: 66 :A?:>.)7 ?:>.): 0;?>2 &A:2B2?)? &A:2B4?4.D)7 &A:2B4?4.D): &A2B?>)7 &2 ?>): ?84 &25?)>5 &76 ?>.K7 ?>.K: ??)7 ??): ?>7ER7 ?>7ER: ?2: ?2>.7 ?2>.: ?-D ?4.-7 ?>2,K ?)J) ?>74) ?2.) ?>-?D ?7??>D?),)K?K85 ?K.E -% '== ) >4.D :>.) >2 '== )? 4.D) >) '== 112 APPENDIX C =(( % * ==/ '== =(' = 0 '== '== =F/ ==' '== ==' ==F === Table C.1 Continued Table & ' 84 -8&)>5 7,2 66>.K 66-?) 66=>7ER 66 :A2: 2>. 0;-D &A:2B24.-7 &A:2B4>2,K &A:2B4)J) &A2B>74) &2 2.) >-?D &257? &76 >D ),)K),)K ),)K- ),)K, K85 K.E 7?58R7 7?58R2 7?58R2 7?5R ?K7 ?K: ?K>) 7?D,7 7?D,: D) :78KK '==:77> :::7, :8.58KK '==:8.57> 4>E ,)?J '== )?J -K)?. ?EDE ,)>R .> 676& @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! COEFFICIENT MATRIX FOR THE 1991 ZIMBABWE MICRO-SAM 113 ==' === ==' ==' === ==0 % * Table C.1 Continued Table & ' ?-%7 &,2?-%: &,25?) ?>4.D7 -,6?>4.D: 52:?:>.)7 5278?:>.): 5255 5:0A:?>2 ?)? 5:0A78?4.D)7 7;?4.D): 6&>?>)7 ?>): 6&>?84 =6&0?)>5 2&;,;?>.K7 ?>.K: 267 B??)7 078 ??):?>7ER7 ?>7ER:?2: ?2>.7 ?2>.:?-D ?4.-7 ?>2,K ?)J) ='' ?>74) ==; ?2.) ?>-?D ?7? ==; ?>D ?),)K ?K85 ?K.E ==; -%) >4.D:>.)>2 )? 4.D) >) ==F ==< ==0 === === ==0 =' ==F === ==0 === === ==' == ==< 114 APPENDIX C ==' =0< ='= ==' === == =;( M==( '== '== '== == ='F == === )>5 >.K?)>7ER2:2>.-D 4.-7>2,K)J)>74)2.) ==0 ==0 === == ==0 === ==/ == ==' ==' ='F ==' == ==; ='0 === ='; ='' == == ==' =0; === ='' ==0 ==' ='9 === ==0 ='9 ==9 === ==; ='' ==< ='; == ='( ==' ==' == = 0 === =;; ==0 ==0 Table C.1 Continued Table & ' 84 &,2 &,25 -,6 52: 5278 5255 5:0A: 5:0A78 7; 6&> 6&> =6&0 2&;,; 267 B 078 676& @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! @!! >-?D7?>D ),)K),)K ),)K- ),)K, K85K.E7?58R7 7?58R2 7?58R2 7?5R ?K7 ?K: ?K>) 7?D,7 7?D,: ='0D) ==':78KK:77> ==9:::7, ==F ==':8.58KK:8.57> ==;4>E == ==' '==,)?J ==0)?J ='9 ='F == -K)?. == ?EDE == ,)>R ==' ==9.> ==< '== ==9 =;F == ==9 == == === ==' =0/ ='; ==0 ==0 ==F ='; = ( ==/ ='( ==< ='9 ==; ==0 =F= ==' ==; ==' ='( ='= =' ='< ==< ==; ==( ==/ ==F M==< ==' ='/ ==F ==' ='< 12(32

Multiplier Matrix for the 1991 Zimbabwe Micro-SAM

115 116 Table D.1 Total multiplier matrix APPENDIXD 116

& ' &=3 &=325 &86 &70, &70,25 &5706 &570625 & 74 &6-& &0,6 &0,625 & 76 & 7625

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Sensitivity Analysis

# %4 ## # # G 1O: P O P# ) ? 9= 9= O P # ) 9F ) # ) E J ) '0 #

Table E.1 ZimCGE model simulation results under high and low factor substitution elasticities

2% %

2 2; 2>

5 5 5 4 4,K ;9= ;; 9= 9=' ;;( ;; ! 09F' 09F0 09<; 09F< 09F' 09F0 0 90 0 90 0 /F 0 <9 0 90 0 9' ? 4,K ( F /(0 (// ((( ( / /(; 7 '=(; '= ; '='' /<9 '=(F '= ( 9= ;(F '=<; ' F 9=< ;(( . ? =(0 =/F ';; ';F M=<' M=<( 7 H = < =;( =9; ='< M'

G %4 DG ) $ ! 3 $ E ? 15 J ? $

128 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 129

Table E.2 ZimCGE model simulation results under high and low transformation elasticities

2% %

2 2; 2>

5 5 5 4 4,K ;9< ; = 9'' =/( ;9F ; = ! 0F0( 0;;9 0F ; 0;F/ 0F0( 0;;; 0 (/ 00

G %4 DG ) $ ! 3 $ E ? 15

7 # # 2 "# # $ #4,K ) ' 4,K " 4,K 4,K # # 4,K # ) # 1 1 ) 0 @ ? ! ) ! 1 # N # 4,K ## ? 130 APPENDIX E

Table E.3 ZimCGE model simulation results under high and low Armington substitution elasticities

2% %

2 2; 2>

5 5 5 4 4,K ; ;(/ ;// 99; ; ;(< ! 0<<< 0 '/ 0/= 0 =' 0<

G %4 DG ) $ ! 3 $ E ? 15 J ? $

! ! # ! # 5 # : # 4,K ? ! # ! ? ! # 1 ) # ? ) ? "# # # $ " # # " ! 4,K Acronyms and Abbreviations

?)K ? ) 4 " K ! > > ,. ,. ,-5 ,-1 5 ?K ? 3 K'(('M(9 4?- 4 ? - 4,K 4 4,K 4 4,K 4 1 422 4! 4-5 4 -1 5 4DK 4 ! #>'((; 7 7 7 7 ! -?- - ! -?- - ! DK D DK D# .. .! .> . ?- ! : D? D ? 8 D 8, 8 , %P % %-K.) % K ) '((F0===

131 Bibliography

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133 134 BIBLIOGRAPHY

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NNN'((;? R + $ -.1 R :G8 #% K )1)'((F2 ?G? ## ! ; 3 0'F G;<(M;(F ) - .5'(((? '((' !?- % ) - D F ,G 2 K. ) 1'((/ : / ; 3$ ? 8RG? K )K'(//) D "+ ) $ E : )D # ? G# K -'((= % 1 KD;'(R BIBLIOGRAPHY 137

5 1 '((' ( E - . D (;0(M%- , NNN'((9 G/+/ /(? (4%.+ +*( .D' 9;=%- , NNN'((9 G/+/ /(? (44%: ) *( .D' 9;=%- , NNN'((F + ) $( , NNN'((< + ) $F( , NNN'((< 9 '+ ) 4 $F( ,.>- , NNN'(((9 '+ ) 4 $( ,.>- ,