Special Issue - Postnormal Matters

World Futures Review 2021, Vol. 0(0) 1–17 Afterthoughts: Transnormal, © The Author(s) 2021 Article reuse guidelines: “ ” sagepub.com/journals-permissions the New Normal and Other DOI: 10.1177/19467567211025755 Varieties of “Normal” in journals.sagepub.com/home/wfr Postnormal Times

Ziauddin Sardar1

Abstract What is normal? And what constitutes “the new normal”? This article argues that the much vaunted “new normal” is nothing more than a return to the status quo ante, life before COVID-19, with a few extra appendages. After discussing the notion of the complex normal, the article suggests that what lies at the other end of postnormal times is best seen as the domain of the transnormal: over and beyond capitalism and neoliberalism, modernity, and postmodernism, almost most of what we can possibly conceive as normal or “the new normal.” The route to a transnormal world is a process of systematic movement leading to transposition: acts of changing relationships, structures, and values that interactively and collectively relocate humanity to a trans, or stable, state or realm of existence. The article suggests that we use the concepts of transmodernity and mutually assured diversity as tools to navigate toward the transnormal and our way out of postnormal times.

Keywords postnormal times, normal, complexity, the new normal, transnormal, transmodernity, mutually assured diversity

“The last normal photo.” In May 2020, Robyn all confirming an instant nostalgia for some- Vinter, a journalist based in Leeds for Yorkshire thing called “the normal.” Post, started the hashtag #lastnormalphoto But what is this “normal” that is so desired (Bakare 2020). It went viral: she received by so many people? Conspicuously missing thousands of replies, with people across the from the last normal photos are pictures of world posting the last picture they took before people living from hand to mouth, plates with the COVID-19 global lockdown. Amongst the photos were music concerts, football matches, shopping, restaurant dinners, plates piled up 1Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies, with food glorious food, people meeting el- London, UK derly relatives, revellers on the beach, fashion, fi Corresponding Author: and a truckload of celebrity sel es. Other Ziauddin Sardar, Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures hashtags followed, including #happiertimes, Studies, 1 Orchard Gate, London NW9 6HU, UK. #beforesocialdistancing, and #misstheolddays, Email: [email protected] 2 World Futures Review 0(0) little or no food, migrant and refugees living in Cockburn told us that the normal gets worse squalor, and the homeless living on the streets. and worse: We do not see this as “normal.” But as Pope Francis (2020) points out, this too is normal for Strikes across the frontier and strikes for higher a substantial segment of the global population— wage a reality we cannot deny: “to discover such a Planet lurches to the right as ideologies engage large number of people who are on the mar- Suddenly it’s repression, moratorium on rights … ’ gins And we don t see them, because poverty What did they think the politics of panic would … is bashful they have become part of the invite? ” landscape; they are things. There is a great deal Person in the street shrugs “Security comes first” more that is “part of the landscape” that we do But the trouble with normal is it always gets not see as normal: devastation caused by climate worse. change; the megafires in Australia and the United States; cities, such as Male and Jakarta, For Nichol (2020), a California-based nov- drowning underwater; the rising tide of far right elist, “normal life” was certainly getting crueller in Europe, the United States, India, and else- and crueller. She had to live through “the last where; gross inequality within and between year’s fire, and the fires the year before that, and nations; the incompetence of political and the firesyearbeforethat.” During 2018, she business elite; authoritarian regimes arresting, informs us, “fires burned nearly two million beating, or torturing dissidents; and the hoard- acres in California. And in 2017, fire ravaged a ing of global wealth in ever fewer hands. The fi – signi cant portion of my hometown. When the nostalgic perception of pre COVID-19 days is university where I teach recently closed for the thus a rather truncated, myopic normal. The semester because of shelter-at-home orders, it normal, as Indian writer and activist, Roy was the fourth closure in three years.” The In- (2020), points out, “is the wreckage of a train dian intellectual Mishra (2020) suggested that that has been careening down the tract for even bigger “systematic crisis” lay ahead, and as years.” Indeed, from the perspective of those such, return to imagined normal was not on the who are suffering from the direct impact of cards. Baker (2020) concludes his “long read” climate change, or migrants and refugees fleeing article in the Guardian, “we can’tgobackto oppression, or millions of those who lost their normal,” by suggesting “we are not watching a jobs due to automation and AI, or those millions movie, we are writing one, together, until the who are thrown in internment camps or declared end.” non-citizens simply because of their faith, the What then lies at the end of the COVID-19 pre–COVID-19 world was rather abnormal: this tunnel depends on your perception and is not how things ought to be, you can hear them outlook—whether you are a pessimist or an scream. optimist, politically on the left or the right, realist or a dreamer, or looking at short term or “ Return to Normal long term futures. In the short run, the the new normal,” Park (Park 2020) tells us in Time, The clamor for life to get “back to normal,” as means “the death of the handshake,”“re- evident on the front pages of newspapers as on thinking how self-isolation fits into broader the news channels and social media, is a de- policy decisions,” and “microbial threats like mand for return to the status quo ante: the coronaviruses will inevitably move from the “normal” state of affairs before COVID-19. bottom to the top of public health priority lists, But as graffiti in Hong Kong, and elsewhere, and the danger of infectious diseases will loom declared: “there can be no return to normal large on our collective conscious.” According because normal was the problem in the first to numerous reports in the Guardian, the “new place.” Indeed, way back in 1983, singer Bruce normal” will include social distancing for years Sardar 3 to come, more people working from home, He cites President Emmanuel Macron of common use of face masks, swift shutdowns, France who declared: “many certainties and health checks when flying, and end of business convictions will be swept away. Many things travel—namely, the old normal with a few we thought were impossible are happening.” restrictions. Beyond that, the optimistic view The most obvious “impossible” thing that is all suggests that the experience of COVID-19 too evident is the return of the big state after a could enhance our understanding of climate 30-year retreat. In many countries, states have change, there will be mass protests for change, provided support for its citizens, forced by and “moments of solidarity” could be trans- COVID-19 to isolate; in some countries, even formed into “the broader political sphere.” The small and big businesses have been rescued and pessimists believe that surveillance will in- stopped from going bankrupt. Nationalization, tensify, authoritarian regimes will become even another recent “impossible,” is now on the more draconian, distrust between government cards: Spain considered and then postponed and citizens will increase, neoliberal capitalism nationalizing private hospitals, France is keen will run wild, and there will be more deaths and to nationalize large businesses, and in Britain, suffering worldwide. However, it could take there is a strong possibility of nationalizing some time before we are out of the crisis. As some parts of public transport. However, it may journalist Young (2020) suggests in the At- take a few years before we can declare the end lantic, the “end game” has three possible of COVID-19 days. outcomes. First, there is an international unity In a massive dossier, with contributions and collaboration to concurrently stamp out the from a host of American and European aca- virus but this does not look likely. Second, demics and writers, Politico magazine provides people develop “herd immunity” but this will a long catalog of how “Coronavirus will “come at a terrible cost,” and “it would likely change the world permanently.” The sugges- leave behind many millions of corpses and a tions from the good and the great include the trail of devastated health systems.” The third obvious—we will be more reluctant to touch potential outcome is that the virus is ex- people, there will be less communal dining and tinguished here and there until a viable vaccine more cooking, we will work more from home, is developed; something that may take “very and virtual meetings will become common—to long.” We will have to learn to live with the not-so-obvious positive and negative predic- virus until such time. tions. These include polarization and individ- ualism: “the coronavirus pandemic marks the The Changing Normal end of our romance with market society and hyper-individualism.” Or, we could also go the Whatever happens, Yuval Noah Harari argued other way: become less communal and more in a much-quoted article in Financial Times authoritarian. “Regulatory barriers to online that we will never be the same again. Short tools will fall,” and Big Tech would become “emergency measures will become a fixture of omnipotent. Governments could become Big life,” we could “give legitimacy to a terrifying Pharma and themselves research and manu- new surveillance system,” and, on the up side, facture medicines and vaccines. Cultural critic we would probably trust science and expert Virginia Heffernan suggests we will be released opinion much more (Harari 2020). Journalist from “the tyranny of habit”: our fantasy of Wintour (2020) reported that in Europe, the “optimizing” life with emphasis on “peak United States, and Asia, almost everything is performance, productivity, efficiency” could up for debate: “the trade-off between trashed give way to “stop taking the streetcar, working economy and public health, the relative virtues of for money, bowling, and going to the movies” centralized or regionalized health systems, the ex- and devote more time to “imaginative and posed fragility of globalization, the future of the unconventional” pursuits. Filmmaker Astra EU, populism, the advantages of authoritarianism.” Taylor points out that the rules that have shaped 4 World Futures Review 0(0) our lives are now mostly irrelevant. And, the US NGO Human Rights First described the Matthew Continetti, journalist and resident post-9/11 American landscape as “the new Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, normal of US governance,” which is defined by predicts that we are heading for a “paradigm “the loss of particular freedoms for some, and shift” which will actually change our under- worse, a detachment for the rule of law as a standing of change (Politico Magazine 2020). whole” (Doherty and Pearlstein 2003). So, The dominant perception of the normal is some forms of “the new normal” have existed also challenged by a short campaigning film by for some time! UNESCO. Shown on several networks (in- However, what can we say about the post– cluding NBC, Euronews, Al Jazeera, France COVID-19 new normal? There has been a Tel´ evisions,´ Canal+, IPS, as well as on You- veritable avalanche of scenarios and prediction Tube) across the world, it juxtaposes certain of potential futures from various outlooks and facts we take for granted with other facts that perspectives. One can argue that the new we do not regard as normal. For example: normal is what you want it to be, as can be seen in Aftershocks and Opportunities: Scenarios 1. Air pollution causes eight million early for a Post-Pandemic Future (Talwar et al. deaths a year—normal 2020) where futurists provide a variety of 2. During COVID-19, Himalayan peaks predictions and forecasts on a range of subjects, become visible for the first time in thirty from an array of perspectives. But most of the years—not normal scenarios in Aftershocks and Opportunities and 3. One child dies of pneumonia every in other places are firmly focused on economic twenty-nine seconds—normal recovery. For example, Talwar, Wells and 4. Coronavirus leads scientists and tech Whittington suggest that “the shape of eco- companies to open source their pat- nomic recovery” gives us four scenarios: ents—not normal (UNESCO n.d.). 1. The Long Goodbye (poorly contained The film concludes by declaring: “Now is pandemic, deep and prolonged downturn), the time to build a better normal” and suggests: 2. The VIP Economy (poorly contained “it all starts with education, science, culture, pandemic, vibrant economic rebound), information.” One can logistically ask: are the 3. Safe but Hungry (eradication of the existing values and structures of science and pandemic, deep and prolonged down- education, or the dominant paradigms capable turn), and of producing a “better normal”? And is a 4. Inclusive Abundance (eradication of the “better normal” actually a, or indeed the, new pandemic, vibrant economic rebound). normal? McKinsey & Company, the global man- “The New Normal” agement company, offers a similar four-stage analysis for emergence of the new normal. The While COVID-19 has made “the new normal” first stage, resolve, will require governments ubiquitous, the term itself is not particularly and businesses to assess the scope, scale, and new. It has a long history in education going depth of action that is required. The second back to the late 19th and early 20th century state, resilience, a period of financial stress, when American text books were rewritten, requires businesses to develop plans to ac- undated, and modernized. There we will find commodate the shock. Stage three, return, re- such titles as The New Normal History of the quires supply chains to be strengthened so the United States (Henry 1904), The New Normal economy can return to pre–COVID-19 levels Music Course (Taft, Holt, and Marshall 1910), of production and sales. And finally, stage four, and The New Normal Mental Athematic re-imagination, where shifts have to be made (Brooks 1873) More recently, in a 2003 report, on the way we live, work, and how we use new Sardar 5 and emerging technologies (Sneader and Haiven’s warning is worth heeding. “In the Singhal 2020). In contrast, Simon Mair wake of the pandemic,” he writes, paints a somewhat different picture of the new normal as four possible futures. On the BBC there will almost certainly be efforts by those Future website, Mair asserts that the dominant vastly enriched and empowered in the last de- economic paradigm is based on two interlinked cades, notably in the intertwined technology and beliefs: “the market is what delivers a good financial sectors, to leverage their influence and quality of life, so it must be protected” and “the resources, as well as the weakness and disarray of market will always return to normal after short traditional institutions, to lead the reorganization periods of crisis.” Mair wants to emphasize of society along neo-technocratic lines. They will value and centralization in shaping his post– continue to generously offer the services of their COVID-19 four potential futures: powerful and integrated surveillance, logistics, financial and data empires to “optimize” social 1. State capitalism: centralized response, and political life. This corporate dystopia can prioritizing exchange value wear a human face: basic income, hypervigilance 2. Barbarism: decentralized response, pri- for new epidemics, personalized medicine. Al- oritizing exchange value ready they arrive, bearing gifts to help us in this 3. State socialism: centralized response, emergency: tracking disease vectors, banning prioritizing the protection of life disinformation, offering states help with data and 4. Mutual aid: decentralized response, population management. Underneath the mask prioritizing the protection of life. will be the reorganization of society to better conform to the hyper-capitalist meta-algorithm Mair (2020) favors state socialism where which, though driven by capitalist contradictions, “the state steps in to protect the parts of the will essentially be nonfeudal for most of us: a economy that are essential to life: the pro- world of data and risk management where only a duction of food, energy, and shelter for in- small handful enjoy the benefits (Haiven 2020, stance, to ensure that the basic provisions of life 206). are no longer subject to the whims of the market” and “mutual aid” future where “we The new normal, then, is the same old way adopt the protection of life as the guiding of colonizing the future. It could result in the principle of our economy” and “individuals and tech giants—what Amy Webb describes as The small groups begin to organize support and care Big Nine (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Mi- within their communities.” crosoft, IBM, Apple, Technet, Baidu, and Whatever the new normal, what we can say Alibaba)—(Webb 2019) becoming even more about it with some confidence is that it is a powerful and entrenched then before the crisis contested territory: a future-oriented struggle started. Indeed, as Meserole (2020), of the over different visions from different perspec- Brookings Institution points out, “techlash” tives. The very concept of the “new normal” is could evaporate into thin air: as we become a fantasy that provides a false sense of certainty more and more reliant on smartphone data in a time of deep uncertainty, an intentional location, Zoom meetings, and shops online, move to remain at the level of surface uncer- anti-trust activity against the largest technology tainty when postnormal times requires delving companies will wane, and regulation of these into the depths. Or, as Canadian critical theorist giants will be eased or may even disappear. The Haiven (2020) puts it, the post–COVID-19 new normal, then, could turn out to be, to use future will be “defined by either the desper- the words of Haiven, “vindictive normal.” ate drive to “return to normal” or a great refusal Many of the optimistic scenarios and visions of that normal” (204). Indeed, if the new for a more just and equitable post–COVID-19 normal is simply an extension of the neoliberal, world underestimate the resilience of neoliberal free-market, technocratic worldview, then capitalism. It has deep roots and can bounce 6 World Futures Review 0(0) back even after a deep recession; “the market importance of communitarian ethics (Furman will always return to normal after short periods 2020). And, what is particularly special about of crisis” may be a belief, as Mair notes, but it is thepandemicisthatitisthefirst global, clearly a belief based on entrenched economic system recognizable, postnormal event. with formidable momentum. In general, In her introduction to the special issue of systems—including global economic system— Futures on Postnormal Times, Merryl Wyn are structured to return to established, en- Davies asked: “are we there yet?” Davies trenched norms. The COVID-19 pandemic has (2011) argued that evidence for post- loosened or decoupled the system, unhinged normality was not particularly strong and that aspects of systems’ interconnections. It may perhaps it was too early to suggest that “the even have freed up space momentarily for al- specific features of postnormal times (are) ternative actions. But this is a temporary unlike anything encountered in the past?” This phenomenon; the system will readjust rapidly question has been answered by a number of to re-solidify in old patterns. Prodigious en- “extreme weirding” (Sweeney 2016) events trenched resources are focused on re-inscribing over the last decade. Indeed, as New York Times old systems. The COVID-19 affair is an ex- columnist Manjoo (2020) has noted, “the world treme event, defined as “a dynamic occurrence has become unmoored, crazier, somehow within a limited timeframe that impedes the messier. The black swans are circling; chaos normal functioning of a system or systems” monkeys have been unleashed.” But if there (Broska, Poganietz, and Vogele¨ 2020), which was still any doubt about the arrival of post- has to be seen in all its complexity, but it does normal times, COVID-19 has resolved them not necessarily mean that it will overturn the (Serra et al. 2020). entire system. There is, however, a probability Postnormal times is an in-between, transi- that the new normal could turn out to be even tory period but how long the transition will last worse than the old normal! is anyone’s guess. The transition is from what we have thought of, and may still think of, as “ The Complex Normal normal, what we may contemplate as the new normal,” the multitudes of new normals that There is, however, something special about the may emerge in the future, toward a radically COVID-19 pandemic. We have never experi- different world. As such, all the normals and enced anything like it in living memory. It has new normals will be integral parts of the ex- brought the entire world to a screeching halt. It tensive age of postnormal times. COVID-19 has shown, as journalist Meek (2020) suggests, has clearly moved the planet toward the edge of that “the boundary between the normal and chaos, but it has not actually brought us to the abnormal, between the state of social security tipping point. There will be other postnormal and social breakdown, is elusive.” It has dis- events in the future, each nudging the globe played how science and ignorance go hand-in- closer and closer to the edge of chaos. Right at hand. It has demonstrated, to the extent that the very edge of chaos, the tipping point itself, even the most myopic can see, that the cur- there are only two options: collapse or a new tailment of human activities has a profound order. impact on the environment (Allan 2020). It has While postnormal times are a product of our exposed the belief that “we have achieved complex, interconnected world, with instantly mastery over nature” and thus can “exercise and constantly generating feedback loops, control over events” as a superannuated illusion complex societies themselves are not particu- (Lal 2020). It has generated a host of “new moral larly unusual. As anthropologist Stephen questions,” ranging from the ethics of social Lansing and geneticist Murray Cox show in distancing (Evans 2020); to the interaction be- Islands of Order, emergent complexity is evi- tween climate chaos, ecosystem collapse, and the dent in even historic societies presumed to be pandemic (Moore and Nelson 2020); to the “simple.” They look at the historic societies of Sardar 7 the Malay archipelago and the wider Pacific; and dystopian scenarios which can have self- examine language, kinship, large-scale pop- fulfilling affect or even be desired by certain ulation movement, genetic makeup, cultural groups of people. The “Declaration of Rebellion” change, and racial topology; and the impact of by the global non-violent environment move- colonialism and show that the complex patterns ment, Extinction Rebellion (2019), declares that of these societies are not random; rather, order humanity is facing “our darkest hour”: “hu- and chaos emerge out of non-linear dynamics manity finds itself embroiled in an event”—sixth or complexity. In a non-linear, complex situ- mass extinction, also known as Holocene— ation, states of stable equilibrium—such as “unprecedented in its history, one which, unless persistent language communities—“appear as immediately addressed, will catapult us further Islands of order in a sea of change” (Lansing into the destruction of all we hold dear.” In the and Cox 2019). Out of equilibrium, social Extinction Rebellion handbook, environmental- dynamics, often produced by contradictions ist Jem Bendell suggests: within societies, lead to chaos and collapse. Collapse can occur for many reasons from we should be preparing for social collapse. By resource depletion and environmental change that I mean an uneven ending of our normal but, as Tainter (1988) demonstrates in his modes of sustenance, security, pleasure, identity, monumental study, The Collapse of Complex meaning and hope. It is very difficult to predict Societies, complexity is a “continuous vari- when a collapse will occur, especially given the able.” Both a sharp increase as well as a sudden complexity of our agricultural and economic decline (as we witnessed with the global systems. My guess is that, within ten years from COVID-19 lockdown) in complexity can lead now, a social collapse of some form will have to collapse. Complexity makes it more and occurred in the majority of countries around the more difficult for organization to function world (Bendell 2019). adequately. Eventually, complex societies reach a point of “declining marginal returns” However, as futurist Jim Dator has repeat- when things begin to fall apart, leading to edly pointed out, we should not see all col- collapse. lapses as negative. Indeed, some types of To some extent, it does look like we are collapses are essential for a major transfor- following the footsteps of the Mayans, the mation to occur: for example, the collapse of Aztecs, the Chacoans, and the Roman Empire. capitalism, which Dator (2009) argues may be As Patrick Wyman suggests in an article in welcomed by those who desire an end to the Mother Jones, we are witnessing the fall of an “economic rat race,” the laborers and wage empire: “the end of a polity, a socioeconomic earners who struggle daily to put food on the order, a dominant culture, or the intertwined table. The collapse of destructive dominant whole (Wyman 2020).” The “empire” in question paradigms may be necessary for new ones to is Western civilization, which requires limitless emerge. Moreover, the postnormal condition resources in a finite earth to keep itself afloat. But has also brought certain societies to the in This Civilization is Finished, philosopher threshold of collapse. The United States is Rupert Read and sustainability expert Samuel unraveling fast, may descend into civil war Alexander argue the global capitalist system, the (Raymond 2019), or move toward fascism foundation of this civilization, “will come to an (Churchwell 2020), and could collapse sud- end, destroyed by its own ecological contradic- denly (Acemoglu 2020). The European Union tions” (Read and Alexander 2019). In The too could be heading toward collapse (Kearns Precipice, moral philosopher Ord (2020) mar- 2019). We have witnessed the collapse of Syria shals strong evidence in support of a string of due to civil war, the economic collapse of existential threats: climate change, environmen- Greece as a result of the 2008 financial crisis, tal damage, nuclear weapons, pandemics, “un- the collapse of the Rohingya through genocide, aligned artificial intelligence,” nanotechnologies, and the Maldives due to sea level rises. Many 8 World Futures Review 0(0) indigenous cultures and non-Western societies and suffering becomes inevitable. This is a have experienced collapse during the last process of systematic movement leading to century. Digital media expert, Abigail De transposition: acts of changing relationships, Kosnik, points out: structures, and values that interactively and collectively relocate humanity to a trans, or I am from the Philippines, a twice colonised stable, state or realm of existence. Trans con- archipelago, and I grasp very well that when a firms the meaning of “going beyond” the current foreign people have arrived on your shores, taken positions in all fields of human behavior, over your lands and waters, banned your lan- thought, and endeavors to reach a state of dy- guage, changed your names, killed and injured namic equilibrium. To go beyond—rise above, millions, forced you to convert to their religion, cut across, leave behind, and surpass—is also to seized control of your economic, political and prudently navigate our way to the other side of cultural systems, labelled you subhuman, and postnormal times. The world beyond post- imposed colonialism and other forms of racial/ normal times will be a radically different world; ethnic and national hierarchies, your society has not so much a world of “new normal” but a known Collapse (De Kosnik 2020) transnormal world. We do not know what it will look like, but we do know what we need to It would thus be hardly surprising if most of transcend to get there! the non-West felt a sense of relief with the The transnormal has two dimensions: the collapse of Western civilization. Actually, that logical imperatives needed to avoid the real date may not be too far, as recent work at MIT, possibility of collapse and the visionary ele- based on the World One computer model ment that involves the collective and collabo- originally devised by Jay Forrester for the 1972 rative visions of most, if not all of us, of viable, Limits to Growth study, predicts the “end of thriving futures of humanity on an ecologically civilization” around 2040 (Durden 2018). healthy Earth. Here, I am concerned with the There is, however, a key difference between logical imperatives to avoid collapse and lay collapse of historic empires and civilization and the foundations for wholesome and inclusive collapse that may greet us at the finale of social and cultural notions which could form postnormal times. Earlier collapses were so- the basis of futures’ visions. cietal, local, regional, and civilizational in What exactly do we need to transcend? nature. There may be similar collapses, in There is no lack of candidates in postnormal degrees or stages, in the future. Societies, times. But let us begin with the black elephant economies, cultures, paradigms, and world- that all, other than the most myopic, can see: views may collapse. But a universal Collapse— planetary boundaries, of which climate change as De Kosnik (2020) points out, “will not be is only one limit. As Goodell (2020) points out confined to either Global North or Global in Rolling Stone magazine, “climate change South; it would be global Collapse.” It thus isn’tan‘event’ or an ‘issue’.It’s an era, and it is presents an existential threat to both— just beginning.” The era began when we started humanity and the planet. When Western civi- to violate planetary boundaries. According to lization goes down, it will also take the rest of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, there are nine people and the planet with it! planetary boundaries which regulate the sta- bility and resilience of the Earth system and Transnormal bind us to a circumference within which we can survive and thrive: climate change, change in The challenge of postnormal times is to navi- biosphere integrity (biodiversity loss and spe- gate from our current unstable state to another cies extinction), stratospheric ozone depletion, more structurally stable state without reaching ocean acidification, biogeochemical flows the tipping point where overall Collapse of (phosphorus and nitrogen cycles), land-system apocalyptic proportion causing immense misery change (e.g., deforestation), freshwater use, Sardar 9 atmospheric aerosol loading (microscopic attitude to nature. So, transnormal is also trans particles in the atmosphere that affect climate domination of nature and requires us to re- and living organisms), and the introduction of integrate metaphysics into our approach to novel entities (e.g., organic pollutants, radio- nature. active materials, nanomaterials, and micro- The unbridled exploitation of nature is a plastics). Four of these boundaries have consequence of neoliberal capitalism, a system already been crossed: climate change, loss of based on cruelty, competition, and contradic- biosphere integrity, land-system change, and tions, promoting extreme inequality. Capital- altered biogeochemical cycles, presenting a ism monetizes everything: human actions, serious risk to the entire Earth system and the desires, indeed human beings themselves as survival of humanity (stockholmresilience.org well as flora and fauna, and the environment to 2015). To transcend climate change is to return extract maximum value and profit(Collier to the planetary boundaries—a journey that 2018; Mason 2015; Wilmott and Orrell requires profound changes in all spheres of 2017). It is a system based on the logic of life—a logical necessity to avoid further tur- perpetual growth and continuous linear moil, even collapse, and ensure sustainable “progress” leading to rampant deforestation, survival of all life. devastating industrial agriculture, caustic- Climate change, and associated environ- intensive farming, and corrosive infrastruc- mental problems, is a consequence of how we ture developments. As Abbey (1991) has said: perceive and treat nature. The notion that nature “growth for the sake of growth is the ideology has to be dominated, indeed tortured to yield its of the cancer cell.” But it is also not a question secret, that emerged from Western thought has of low growth or even zero growth; planetary now become a universal philosophy. The boundaries now demand degrowth (D’Alisa, emergence of COVID-19 has been described as Demaria, and Kallis 2015). Progress based on a “message from nature” by many environ- everlasting growth, which has brought us to the mentalists. However, the realization that our precipice, has to be abolished and replaced with attitudes to nature are producing an unsus- homeostatic progress, a dynamic state of bal- tainable world is not new. In its modern form, it ance between human activities and ecological can be traced back to the famous 1967 article, imperatives. Transnormal then is also trans “The Historical Roots of Our Ecological Cri- capitalism, trans inequality, trans growth, and sis” by Lynn White. “What we do about trans progress. ecology depends on our ideas of the man- The notions of progress, growth, efficiency nature relationship,” wrote White. “More sci- as well as contemporary economic thought and ence and more technology are not going to get framework are products of current modes of us out of the present ecologic crisis” (White knowledge production. Contemporary knowl- 1967). White suggested a return to the meta- edge structures with their associated disciplines physics of Saint Francis of Assisi. A year later, are embedded in Western narratives and priv- in his 1968 book, The Encounter of Man and ilege and give unwarranted acclaim, domi- Nature, Nasr (1968) argued that “there is ev- nance, and extension to Western culture and its erywhere the desire to conquer nature, but in products, at the expense of knowledge systems, the process the value of the conquer himself, ways of thinking, and cultural outputs of non- who is man, is destroyed and his very existence Western people (Harding 1993; Lal 2002). threatened.” Nasr suggested a return to non- However, knowledge production is changing Western metaphysics of Islamic, Hindu, and rapidly. As I have written elsewhere, knowl- Chinese traditions. Whether we opt for White’s edge production has now become complex and recommendation or the Nasr option is beside incorporates knowledge based on Big Data, the point; what is important is the realization dubious and opaque mathematical models, that metaphysics is “the essential ingredient racialized artificial intelligence, weaponized that’s gone missing” (Tudge 2020)fromour disciplines, and what is described as “forbidden 10 World Futures Review 0(0) knowledge” (such as genetic engineering and limits through climate change, artificial in- synthetic biology). It has thus acquired a strong telligence and synthetic biology,” says the toxic component—“the smog of ignorance” Chinese philosopher Hui (2020), “it is critical (Sardar 2020) which cannot be isolated or to re-examine the diversity of cosmotechnics, quarantined through existing disciplinary or how technology is infused with a world- structures. Knowledge production then has to view.” To go trans from instrumental ratio- embrace social construction of ignorance as nality and technological determinism is to one of its central theme; the role of ignorance as explore “how non-European thought and a methodology, as a tool for valuing and corollary ways of being can affect the devel- managing the unknown in science, technology, opment of technology.” and medicine; the use of ignorance as power This brings us to the worldviews that have to and as an instrument of oppression; ignorance be transcended to realize the transnormal: as economic theory, risk management, and modernity and postmodernism. Modernity can security studies (Gross and McGoey 2015)as be traced back to the Enlightenment, while well as strategic ignorance and the role of ig- postmodernism emerged in the 1970s. Both norance in foresight (McGoey 2014, 2016)— worldviews have shaped the world and brought all play a major role in the production of us to postnormal times. As Giddens (1990) has knowledge. We need to rethink what exactly is shown in his classic work, The Consequences science and how it should function in “the of Modernity, the social order of modernity is Anthropocene” (Nowotny et al. 2002; Renn capitalistic in both its economic system and its 2020). Trans normal therefore implies trans other institutions. Modernity “ensures that disciplinary structures; a clear movement to- political, military, and ideological power come ward multi-, inter-, and trans disciplinarity; together in hitherto unimaginably concentrated serious engagement with all varieties of ig- form” (Sardar 1992). Postmodernism, with its norances; and generating new, more diverse emphasis on absolute relativism and the col- and open discourses of knowledge. Trans- lapse of the grand narrative, has led to the normal also requires us to embrace what is fragmentation of the world, increasing strife uncommon or infrequent, what is unconven- and discord, and ushered in the post-truth re- tional and extraordinary, and come to terms gimes. It has served as a hand-maiden to with uncertainty. In a transnormal world, neoliberalism and the “death cult,” as John knowledge, ignorance, and uncertainty will be Oliver describes it, of free market and has ar- deeply integrated. rived at a globalized levelling of differences Toxic knowledge is also a by-product of which threatens the extinction of culture alto- technological determinism, the view that gether in what Appingnanesi (2019) has de- technology and innovation must proceed scribed as “terminal post-culture.” Both modernity whatever the moral consequence to become the and postmodernism are failed projects that have primary drivers of economic, social, cultural, brought us to the postnormal condition. They and political change. This dogma turns tech- function, to use the words of Beck (2001),as nology into an ideology. As Weyl and Lanier “Zombie categories,” which govern and direct (2020) categorically state in the technophile our thinking, ushering us toward self-destructive Wired magazine, “AI is an ideology, Not a outcomes. technology,” at its core is the “perilous belief The Indian intellectual and cultural theorist, that fails to recognize the agency of humans.” Nandy (1987), described modernity as a sec- Similarly the promotion of synthetic biology, ular theory of salvation. Postmodernism at- genetic engineering, and killer robots are based tempted to replace modernity by constructing on instrumental rationality—the pursuit of secular liberalism as a new theory of absolu- ideological goals by any means necessary tion. Both theories trap us in a manufactured without moral qualms. “Because our techno- normalcy field: a product of our perception of logical creations are challenging historical what is and what is not normal. The postnormal Sardar 11 condition, as Mayo (2020) notes, “is a cultural Transmodernity offers the potential of new crisis owed to humanities inability to move ways of looking at culture and shaping the beyond a manufactured normalcy that per- world that goes beyond all our conceptions and petuates a familiar sense of present.” Our perceptions of normal and pilots us in the di- desire for stability and certainty, “to de- rection of the transnormal domain. More spe- emphasize change, and make all things nor- cifically, the trans dimension of transmodernity mal, fundamentally expedites a sense of crisis,” stand for: which itself “nurtures ignorance and fosters uncertainty; the distinguishing characteristics 1. The continuous and constant trans- of the postnormal condition.” Thus, the de- formation of all cultures; mand for a return to normal, or even an ac- 2. The ceaseless transmission of cultures ceptance of a modified new normal, is a between cultures; yearning for the safe bosom of the manufac- 3. The incessant and perpetual transitions tured normalcy field. within cultures; To locate ourselves in a transnormal do- 4. The valid transitive relations within main, we need to break the chains of the particular cultures; manufactured normalcy field and move beyond 5. The constant to-and-fro translation of modernity and postmodernism (Sardar and cultures between cultures; Sweeney 2016). This demands the creating 6. The regular translocation of cultures in of a radically novel cultural space that syn- geographical space in a globalized thesizes the best of tradition, modernity, and world; tradition; does not privilege any cultural 7. The transparency of power relations standpoint or orthodoxy; and creates a radically between and within cultures; transformed social and cultural dynamics. 8. The transference of cultural desires to Transmodernity provides us with such a new cultural goals; framework. 9. Trans disciplinary modes of study and inquiry and understanding cultures; Transmodernity and Mutually and Assured Diversity 10. Transcendence of the given future of modernity and colonized futures of Transmodernity is based on the assumption postmodernism into a plethora of vi- that cultures do not, and have never, existed in able and desirable, autonomous and isolation. All cultures interact, and all future interconnected, transmodern futures. actions are located in the interactions of cul- tures (Sardar 2006a, 2006b, 2012). It is a Finally, there is one more relational notion concept designed to address the positive ele- that needs to be transcended: alterity. In its ment of self-renewal and self-reorganization conventional, philosophical, and anthropolog- in diverse world cultures. It proposes to en- ical sense, alterity refers to “otherness”; courage change transculturally, and it is de- something other than “sameness,” outside the centered in its scrutiny of trans cultures and dominant worldview, its conventions and characterized by a sense of mobility. Trans- principles, external from the given notion of modernity aims to produce a trans discourse “the normal” and “the new normal.” We are of knowledge which gives equal importance to concerned with the fear of the Other, whether knowledge systems of non-Western civilizations the Other is perceived as other people or cul- and cultures, including indigenous cultures, tacit tures; or other ways of being, knowing, or and intuitive methods, and promotes the reali- doing—other cosmologies. It is about such zation that in a diverse and dynamic world, there things as fear of migration and Islamophobia, are many ways to be human. It looks at cultural fear of different ways of life, as well as rep- diversity “on the move.” resentations of the Other, and the fear of the 12 World Futures Review 0(0) sacred and nature itself. What we end up not formed in a vacuum but within a cultural talking about is the fear of diversity in all its realm that comes with values, history, tradi- multiple forms. tions, contradictions, and perennial questions. Both our survival as human communities Mutually assured diversity is the universal and cultures and the survival of our planet acceptance of an obvious fact that there is more depends on diversity—the difference that than one way to be human; it requires rejecting makes the difference between survival and the notion that there is only one way, the right oblivion. Diversity is more than acceptance and way; and recognizing the multiple ways the respect of other cultures or simply recognizing world’s people have of seeking meaning, of that each individual, culture, and community is comprehending values, and means of deliver- unique. It is also appreciating the simple fact ing values in daily life. What needs to be that our own happiness and enrichment de- grasped is that all societies, cultures, and civ- pends on the happiness and enrichment of ilizations have undergone change and are in a others. We are not just different; but our dif- process of negotiating change. What is sig- ference depends on and is connected to all other nificant is what kind of change they accept, find different cultures and communities. If one problematic, reject, or have mixed feelings different culture becomes extinct, all humanity about and have alternate responses to, and for suffers. That’s where the notion of mutually what reasons. It is the transmission of identity assured diversity (MAD) enters the equation across change that is the cultural reflex par (Sardar 2006a). MAD is based on the as- excellence because identity is the attribute of sumption that there is no such thing as a distinct belonging that grows from knowing oneself so culture: all cultures are always diverse and that one has the ability to know others and learn always complex, never static but always about other cultures. adoptive and changing, particularly in a What are we giving assurance about? The globalized context. Moreover, internally, indi- assurance is the universal acceptance of the vidual cultures or subcultures are heterogeneous continuity of cultural identity for everyone on and speak with multiple voices; externally, they the planet as a negotiated, adaptive, and do not engage in a dialogue but a polylogue, meaningful space. It is the acknowledgment where different voices are talking simulta- that for difference to exist as difference, it needs neously to each other and Others. Thus, cultural cultural space to be different. It is the propo- relations are all about maintaining the external sition that all cultures have the right to know and internal diversity of cultures and ensuring themselves, to understand and interact with that all the different voices can be heard. The their cultural self, and to do this within their notion of mutuality and respect are essential for own cultural space. In other words, all cultures polylogue and creating spaces for the articula- have a right to enhance their cultural power and tion of different voices and for them to be heard. to represent their cultures with their own But “mutually” in MAD is about more than concepts and categories. mutual respect. It is explicitly a definition of Mutually assured diversity is not focused on what we are being mutual about. And what is a single arena or issue. It is a holistic concept, mutual is that the human condition is a cultural and, as such, to be meaningful, it must operate condition and that culture is an essential rela- across a whole range of cultural, social, po- tional attribute, an enabling feature of knowing, litical, and discursive fields. There are 12 va- being, and doing. It is the acceptance that all rieties of mutually assured diversities to be cultures are equally important, that culture is considered: the source of identity for everyone, and that identity provides a hand and eye to manipulate 1. Mutually assured definitions: The the kaleidoscope of diversity, both within greatest power we have is the power culture and between cultures. It is the accep- to define. If we define other people out tance that for all people everywhere, identity is of existence, then there is no point Sardar 13

to mutually assured diversity! Other needs of our wasteful society; it is not cultures have the right to use the cat- just a question of reducing carbon egories and concepts of their own emissions but also a dramatic change worldview to define what are free- in our consumer-oriented profligate doms, what are rights and responsi- lifestyles. bilities, what is important and what is 8. Mutually assured defense: It is not just not, and what they consider to be our security that matters. The security immutable. Everyone must be allowed of others is equally important. We to live by the worldview which seems cannot invade other countries simply true to them. This is not about absolute to ensure our security. By putting relativism of the postmodern variety others in danger, we also put ourselves but about different ways of being in danger. human. 9. Mutually assured dependence: Which 2. Mutually assured dissent: To make is a prerequisite for an interdependent, difference possible, to ensure the right interconnected, and complex world. to critical engagement, and to agree to 10. Mutually assured desires: Our desires disagree. should not undermine the desires of 3. Mutually assured discourse: Each others. If we consume most of the culture has its own way of knowing, resources of the planet, we deny others being, and doing. We therefore need to their right to adequate and viable appreciate other forms of knowledge consumption. and allow the discourses of other 11. Mutually assured dignity: Beyond hu- cultures to come to the fore. man rights, we must also ensure that the 4. Mutually assured demarcations: To dignity of other individuals, cultures, ensure that difference can exist as and communities are maintained—so difference and boundaries are negoti- that our own dignity is ensured. ated. Not just that we do not know how 12. Mutually assured destinies: It is not to demarcate, but it is a particularly just our future but the futures of all difficult thing to do in a globalized cultures and communities are equally world. This is something we have to important. The future belongs to every learn. culture and community on the planet, 5. Mutually assured democracy: Which and every culture and community has does not marginalize the minorities or the right to determine its own future. leads to their displacement from power. We need to conceive genuinely The verities of mutually assured diversities participatory democracy which has are a connected ensemble. Each enhances the priority over the orthodox and self- others across a range of human endeavors; replicating mechanics of politics. collectively, they move us past what Slaughter 6. Mutually assured degrowth: Which is (2020) calls “the trap our species has created essential to ensure sustainable futures for itself” and the “mosaic-like but almost for all cultures, future generations, and singular macro-future” that we are hurling the ecological survival of the Earth— toward. the terrestrial abode of humans as well In the final analysis, transmodernity and as flora and fauna. MAD are all about power. They seek to un- 7. Mutually assured dematerialization: dermine the sources, means, and relations of Reduction of growth depends on dominance, control, and subordination, as they drastic reduction in the sheer quantity are enacted in political, social, and cultural of resources and materials used to processes, and structures and methods of serve the production and consumption knowing, doing, and being, between cultures 14 World Futures Review 0(0) and within cultures. The aim is nothing less and in fact cocreates, the world we live in, than transforming the world, moving it to a new whether conscious of their agency or not.” The level, where mutual diversity and cultural transnormal world will be created through what equality are the norms. Montuori and Donnelly (2017) call “transfor- mative leadership” which “invites everybody Toward Transnormal to ask what kind of a world they are creating through their thoughts, beliefs, actions, and The transformations needed to move forward interactions”—to think creatively and imagi- toward a transnormal world are truly profound. natively about their “being, relating, knowing, They require abandonment of a great deal of and doing.” what we have hitherto taken for granted, nat- What distinguishes us from all other ural, and normal. Moreover, we feel helpless at species on the planet is our ability to un- the pace of accelerating change, increasing derstand that futures exist, our inclination to uncertainty and complexity, astounding con- study and explore alternative futures, and our tradictions, and cumulative chaos. Think how willingness to shape viable, sustainable, and the COVID-19 global pandemic stopped the ethical futures (van Creveld 2020). Post- world in its tracks, isolated us from each other, normal times force us to take our futures and made us feel exceedingly vulnerable. Fu- seriously. To use all the agency we have ture postnormal events could be even more wisely and steer our communities and soci- devastating and thus further enhance our eties toward the transnormal. Historic soci- feelings of powerlessness. eties used stars to navigate. Then, maps were But agency has not been lost. Rather, both provided as additional tools. Nowadays, as individuals and communities, we now have we rely on GPS (although there are many more agency than ever before. Initial condi- other technology-based ways of navigating). tions and small perturbations are very im- Navigating postnormal times requires us to portant in our world of chaos. The action of an use the metaphorical equivalent of all three. individual, or an apparently insignificant Metaphysics and other cosmologies are our event, can have the “butterfly effect”—trig- guiding stars. Transmodernity and mutually gering a chain of reaction that could lead to assured diversity provide us with a map of the new developments or even a new order. Think terrain we need to navigate. Our moral con- of the Arab Spring, the rapid globalization of science, creativity, and imagination, and our the MeToo movement triggered by Harvey abilities to perceive and shape better futures Weinstein accusations, and the swift evolu- are our GPS. Collectively, they can guide us tion of Black Lives Matter after the murder of toward the transnormal—our destination out George Floyd. Recognizing the legal rights to of the postnormal times. flora and fauna as living entities, as granted to In his online 2020 Easter Sermon, Justin the Whanganui River in New Zealand (Roy Welby, the Archbishop of Canterbury, reflected 2017) or to all rivers in Bangladesh, is a on what should happen after the COVID-19 small step that can trigger a chain reaction. pandemic has been brought under control What we think and do as individuals and around the world. “After so much suffering,” communities is important; our actions can he said, “so much heroism” and “so much multiply in geometric proportions, leading effort,”“we cannot go back to what was before to chaotic events with the potential to usher as if all is normal. There needs to be a resur- both positive and negative change. Postnormal rection of our common life, something that time is a period of change: what happens next is links to the old, but is different and more up to us. We can use the period of change to beautiful” (Wilby 2020). The transnormal is the elicit the change we want. We need to realize first step toward that “more beautiful” world we that in these transformative times, “everyone all ought to be seeking; beyond that, its beauty can lead” and that “everybody contributes to, depends on the magnificence of our collective Sardar 15 visions. The journey to transnormal requires Brooks, Edward. 1873. The New Normal Mental both thoughtful future visions as well as serious Athematic. Philadelphia, PA: Christopher future-oriented action. Sower Co. Broska, L. H., W.-R. Poganietz, and S. Vogele¨ 2020. fi Acknowledgments Extreme Events De ned-A Conceptual Dis- cussion Applying a Complex Systems Ap- I am grateful to my friends Richard Appignanesi and proach.” Futures 115: 102490. Juliet Steyn who helped shape the ideas on trans- Churchwell, Sarah. 2020. “Fascism: It Has Hap- modernity and Merryl Wyn Davies who worked on pened Here.” The New York Review of Books, mutually assured diversity and pointed out its con- 22 June. nection with transmodernity. Thanks are also due to Cockburn, Bruce. 1983. The Trouble with Nor- John Sweeney, Jordi Serra, Liam Mayo, Christopher mal.Album released on True North label Jones, and Scott Jordan for their comments and Collier, Paul. 2018. The Future of Capitalism. criticisms. London: Allan Lane. D’Alisa, Giacomo, Federico Demaria, and Giorgos Declaration of Conflicting Interests Kallis. 2015. Degrowth: A Vocabulary for a New Era. London: Routledge. The author declared no potential conflicts of interest Dator, Jim. 2009. “Alternative Futures at the Manoa with respect to the research, authorship, and/or School.” Journal of Futures Studies 14, no. 2: publication of this article. 1-18. “ Funding Davies, Merryl Wyn. 2011. 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