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Central Europe Private Equity Confidence Survey | Deloitte Central Europe Resilience amidst uncertainty Central Europe Private Equity Confidence Survey October 2016 Brochure / report title goes here | Section title goes here This publication contains general information only. The publication has been prepared on the basis of information and forecasts in the public domain. None of the information on which the publication is based has been independently verified by Deloitte and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, any of its member firms or any of the foregoing’s affiliates (collectively the “Deloitte Network”) take any responsibility for the content thereof. No entity in the Deloitte Network nor any of their affiliates nor their respective members, directors, employees and agents accept any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness, or in relation to the use by any recipient, of the information, projections or opinions contained in the publication and no entity in Deloitte Network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies thereon. 2 Resilience amidst uncertainty | Central Europe Private Equity Confidence Survey Introduction Our 28th survey reaffirms stability in Central Europe’s (CE) private equity (PE) market, with most metrics suggesting little change expected over the coming months. This is refreshing and in contrast to the mood further west, where Britain’s EU Referendum result has caused uncertainty in much of the European Union and its financial markets. Of course Central Europe isn’t entirely immune to the impact of Brexit; being part of the EU means deal doers are aware of the potential impact on markets, and the Index pulled back to 109. That the drop wasn’t higher is vindication of the region’s resilience and ability to persevere. Economy aside, most results point to a mood of confidence. For example, despite the gentle drop in economic expectations for the region, deal doers continue to perceive CE’s debt markets as very stable. More than four fifths (83%) expect no change in the availability of debt finance, up on last survey’s already healthy 70%. Leverage is crucial to driving buyouts, and the expectation of its availability means houses are looking forward to backing businesses – 70% intend to focus on new deals over the next six months, on a par with the spring survey and together the highest level since the region’s ‘golden age’ between 2004 and 2007. Adding to the positivity for the future, we have recorded a couple of fund closes, namely first closes for Abris and Arx Equity, while Genesis Capital reached a final close for its fourth vehicle. Others are expected to make announcements in the coming months, such as CEE Equity ($1bn), Resource Partners and Value4Capital(EUR 150m targeted). What is further encouraging is some of the vehicles raised since the spring have attracted local capital, a fairly new phenomenon in CE PE, a market which has historically relied (almost exclusively) on foreign institutions. Despite an unusually large number of mega-deals currently in various stages of development, the market continues to be a mid-market one, which institutions – local and abroad – find attractive given the perceived pricing levels achievable. In fact our survey reveals that more than half of deal doers expect average deal sizes to stay the same, even as averages have come down markedly in Western Europe and Britain in particular since the Brexit vote (CMBOR Statistics for Q3 2016). We look forward to continuing to work with CE deal doers to see whether this positive sentiment bears out as they drive the asset class forward in the region. Mark Jung Garret Byrne Partner, Private Equity Leader Partner, M&A Transaction Service Leader Central Europe Central Europe 3 Resilience amidst uncertainty | Central Europe Private Equity Confidence Survey 10 12 14 16 18 Central EuropePEConfidenceIndex 2016 region for GDP growth, with 2.9% estimated for Q3 region. Central Europe remains Europe’s strongest suggesting astabilisation of the economies in the six months ago. Nearly two thirds expect no change, than athird expect the situation to worsen, similar to down from nearly aquarter in the (24%) spring. Fewer the spring. Just 7% expect the backdrop to improve, economic expectations are less optimistic than in Perhaps as aresult of the EU Referendum result, than where it was ayear ago. indeed encouraging to see the Index remains higher increasing populism. In fact, given these events, it is as well as elections throughout Europe pointing to well as ongoing concerns regarding the migrant crisis Europe, not least in the post-Brexit environment, as in June. The drop is likely on the back of risks in wider surge, potentially aresult of the Brexit vote in the UK Confidence has dropped slightly after a spring-time Key findings 4 1 average iscomparedtothebaseperiod,whichinourcasesp seven questionsofthesurvey.Foreachperiodaveragep *The PEConfidenceIndexisbaseduponanswersreceivedfrom 20 40 60 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 http://www.focus-economics.com/regions/central-and-eastern-europe 1 100 . Mar. 2003 15 Sep. 2003 6 148 Mar. 2004 13 Sep. 2004 9 15 Mar. 2005 4 14 Sep. 2005 9 15 Mar. 2006 5 15 Oct. 2006 3 15 Apr. 2007 9 * 118 Oct. 2007 102 Apr. 2008 ositive answerratiosoverthesumofpositiveandnegativeans ring 2003. 48 Oct. 2008 professionals focusedonCentralEurope.Itiscomposedfroman 78 Apr. 2009 11 Oct. 2009 7 levels across surveys. 28 respondents citing this segment, one of the highest were deemed most competitive, with two thirds of in the history of the survey. As market ever, leaders which came in at just 20%, their lowest proportion came at the expense of mid-size growing companies, hit an all-time this high time of 13% round. Their gain on the survey for the first decade, began to blip and most competitive. Start-ups, which barely registered Mindsets are shifting as regards which segments are on last survey’s already healthy 70%. expect no change in the availability of debt finance, up markets as very stable. More than four fifths(83%) for CE, deal doers continue to perceive CE’s debt Despite the gentle decline in economic expectations 14 Apr. 2010 0 13 Oct. 2010 8 15 Apr. 2011 3 70 Oct. 2011 10 Apr. 2012 1 71 Oct. 2012 10 Apr. 2013 1 12 Oct. 2013 7 14 Apr. 2014 4 wers iscomputed.This 11 Sep. 2014 4 13 swers tothefirst Apr. 2015 0 92 Sep.2015 12 Apr. 2016 4 10 Sep. 2016 9 Resilience amidst uncertainty | Central Europe Private Equity Confidence Survey Survey Results Economic Climate For this period, I expect the overall economic climate to:* 2% 100% 4% 4% 4% 10% 7% 9% 10% 9% 8% 10% 13% 16% 90% 18% 21% 27% 31% 28% 30% 26% 27% 33% 80% 36% 44% 31% 53% 51% 70% 37% 59% 55% 57% 47% 66% 74% 61% 60% 62% 60% 68% 93% 50% 74% 64% 74% 49% 69% 40% 67% 63% 69% 70% 69% 63% 30% 64% 62% 53% 56% 43% 47% 43% 43% 20% 39% 41% 34% 32% 29% 30% 26% 24% 24% 10% 18% 13% 10% 11% 3% 5% 7% 6% 7% 0% Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Sep. Apr. Sep. Apr. Sep. 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 Decline Remain the same Improve The majority of respondents (63%) expect Indeed CE remains Europe’s strongest While expectations – both from economists the economic backdrop to remain the same region for GDP growth, with 2.9% growth and deal-doers – are down, the decrease over the next six months, up from the last expected for this quarter2. The continuing is gentle, suggesting the Brexit aftermath survey and broadly consistent with the high growth rates of the region are largely isn’t as negative as had been feared. previous few reports. Fewer than a third based on rising disposable incomes as This remains a risk, however, as Britain’s of respondents (30%) expect conditions to well as decreasing unemployment rates. new Prime Minister Theresa May has worsen, though there has been a marked Poland, CE’s largest economy, is forecast to yet to invoke Article 50, and only after drop in the percentage of respondents generate GDP growth of 3.5% next year3. that invocation can devolution talks with expecting an improvement: whereas nearly other EU member states and Brussels a quarter (24%) were optimistic in the commence. Once these negotiations spring, the number has shrunk to just 7% get underway, the future of one of the in the latest survey. While it represents a EU’s most significant trading partners fall on the last survey, the figure remains will become clearer and this may have higher than one year ago. an impact – positive or negative – on the economies of the EU overall as well as its constituent member states. * Results are displayed only for the 20 most recent survey 2 http://www.focus-economics.com/regions/central-and-eastern-europe 3 http://www.oecd.org/economy/poland-economic-forecast-summary.htm 5 Resilience amidst uncertainty | Central Europe Private Equity Confidence Survey Debt availability For this period, I expect the availability of debt finance to: 3% 100% 4% 7% 5% 4% 4% 5% 11% 10% 10% 16% 90% 19% 21% 31% 30% 80% 40% 39% 48% 46% 52% 70% 50% 42% 62% 61% 64% 61% 67% 67% 57% 63% 60% 78% 69% 17% 84% 75% 79% 87% 50% 76% 67% 70% 83% 40% 77% 36% 69% 30% 60% 61% 52% 53% 47% 46% 48% 37% 20% 38% 39% 38% 33% 33% 36% 33% 27% 10% 22% 16% 18% 18% 16% 14% 3% 14% 14% 3% 9% 7% 0% Mar.
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