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Toward a Meta-Methodology for Real-World Problem Solving

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Toward a meta-methodology for real-world problem solving by Ryan Reed Dissertation presented for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Industrial Engineering in the Faculty of Engineering at Stellenbosch University Promoter: Prof JH van Vuuren March 2020 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Declaration By submitting this dissertation electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the sole author thereof (save to the extent explicitly otherwise stated), that reproduction and publication thereof by Stellenbosch University will not infringe any third party rights and that I have not previously in its entirety or in part submitted it for obtaining any qualification. Date: March 2020 Copyright © 2020 Stellenbosch University All rights reserved i Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za ii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Abstract There are complexities inherent to the subjective experience of life that render real-world prob- lem solving exceedingly subtle and difficult. Yet, all too often, it is not the complex nature of problems that result in their persistence, but rather the ineffective fashion in which practitioners dedicated to their resolution respond thereto. The process of real-world problem solving comprises three parts: The development of a formal formulation of a problem considered, the identification of an adequate response thereto, often by means of analytical modelling, and finally, the practical implementation of that response. In the history of real-world problem solving, the first of these phases has often been neglected and, as a result, solution methodologies dedicated to the formulation of problems, complicated by the dynamics of human nature, have failed to address several phenomena relevant to the success of problem resolution. Accordingly, the work documented in this dissertation is dedicated first to the identification of such phenomena, and then to the development and application of a meta-methodology dedicated to their management. The phenomena addressed include the identification of stakeholders relevant to a given instance of problem solving, the dissimilar states in which real-world systems exist and the effect thereof upon the resolution of problems therein, the sociological paradigm-based limitations of a select group of problem formulation methods, and the mitigation of irrational influences on human decision making. In an attempt to uncover dynamics relevant to the formulation of real-world problems hidden from a purely qualitative analysis, the unique utility of mathematical modelling is additionally employed to describe the context for which the proposed meta-methodology is designed. In order to illustrate the practical applicability of the meta-methodology proposed in this dis- sertation, several of its components are applied, first in a hypothetical fashion, to the context of the South African education system during the period of the fees must fall movement and then in a practical fashion, to the context of the South African energy sector. iii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za iv Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Uittreksel Daar is kompleksiteite inherent aan die subjektiewe ervaring van die lewe wat werklike pro- bleemoplossing uiters subtiel en moeilik maak. Tog is dit al te dikwels nie die komplekse aard van probleme wat hul volharding veroorsaak nie, maar eerder die ondoeltreffende manier waarop praktisyns toegewy aan die oplossing daarvan, daarop reageer. Die proses van werklike probleemoplossing bestaan uit drie dele: Die ontwikkeling van 'n formele formulering van die probleem wat oorweeg word, die identifisering van 'n gepaste respons daar- voor, dikwels deur analitiese modellering, en laastens die praktiese implementering van die re- spons. In die geskiedenis van werklike probleemoplossing is die eerste van hierdie fases al te dikwels verwaarloos, en as gevolg daarvan het oplossingsmetodologie¨evir die formulering van probleme, gekompliseer deur menslike natuurlike dinamika, soms nie daarin geslaag om ver- skynsels aan te spreek wat relevant is tot die sukses van die probleemoplossing nie. Gevolglik word die werk wat in hierdie proefskrif gedokumenteer is, eers op die identifikasie van sulke verskynsels toegespits, en daarna aan die ontwikkeling en toepassing van 'n meta-metodologie vir hul bestuur toegewy. Die verskynsels wat aangespreek word, sluit in die identifisering van belanghebbendes wat re- levant is vir 'n gegewe probleemoplossing, die uiteenlopende toestande waarin werklike w^ereld- stelsels bestaan en die effek daarvan op die oplossing van probleme daarin, die sosiologiese paradigma-gebaseerde beperkings van 'n bepaalde groep probleem formuleringsmetodes, en die teenwerking van irrasionele invloede op menslike besluitneming. In 'n poging om dinamika te identifiseer wat relevant is vir die formulering van werklike probleme wat in 'n suiwer kwalitatiewe analise verborge bly, word die unieke nut van wiskundige modellering ook ingespan om die konteks waarvoor die voorgestelde meta-metodologie ontwerp is, te beskryf. Ten einde die praktiese toepaslikheid van die meta-metodologie wat in hierdie proefskrif voor- gestel word, te illustreer, word verskeie komponente daarvan eerstens op hipotetiese wyse in die konteks van die Suid-Afrikaanse onderwysstelsel gedurende die periode van die fees must fall- beweging en daarna prakties in die konteks van die Suid-Afrikaanse energiesektor toegepas. v Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za vi Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Acknowledgements The author wishes to acknowledge the following people and institutions for their various contributions towards the completion of this work: • My supervisor, Professor JH van Vuuren, for granting me the opportunity to wander the road less travelled, and for his wise counsel along the way. • The members of the Stellenbosch Unit for Operations Research in Engineering (SUnORE), for making the last two years a banter-filled experience that will be remembered with fondness. • The SUnORE research group, for financial support in the form of a post-graduate bursary. • The guy with the keen eye, Benedikt Meylahn, for his first-class perusal. • The squad of 57 Jonkershoek Street, for teaching me that electronic engineers do actually dance (even if it is in jeans and tackies), that artists do, in fact, care about the state of one's living quarters, and that blossoms do indeed bloom in the spring. • My family. Our story is needled into the very fabric of this dissertation; may spring come soon. vii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za viii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Table of Contents Abstract iii Uittreksel v Acknowledgements vii List of Acronyms xv List of Figures xvii List of Tables xix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background . 1 1.2 Problem statement . 2 1.3 Dissertation objectives . 3 1.4 Scope delimitation . 3 1.5 Dissertation organisation . 4 2 Research methodology 7 2.1 The research paradigm . 7 2.2 The research methodology . 8 2.3 An expert analyst . 10 2.4 Chapter summary . 11 I Literature Study 13 3 The bounds of human rationality 15 3.1 Intuition or reason . 15 3.2 Judgement heuristics . 17 ix Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za x Table of Contents 3.2.1 The affect heuristic . 18 3.2.2 The simulation heuristic . 19 3.2.3 The availability heuristic . 20 3.2.4 The representativeness heuristic . 20 3.2.5 The anchoring and adjustment heuristic . 21 3.2.6 The recognition heuristic . 21 3.2.7 The similarity heuristic . 22 3.2.8 The effort heuristic . 22 3.3 Cognitive biases . 23 3.4 Biases emanating from the affect heuristic . 23 3.4.1 Manipulation of affect in our daily lives . 23 3.4.2 Failures of the affective system . 26 3.5 A bias emanating from the simulation heuristic . 26 3.6 Biases emanating from the availability heuristic . 27 3.6.1 The ease of recall bias . 27 3.6.2 The retrievability bias . 27 3.6.3 The illusory correlation bias . 28 3.7 Biases emanating from the representativeness heuristic . 29 3.7.1 The insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes bias . 29 3.7.2 The insensitivity to sample size bias . 29 3.7.3 The misconceptions of chance bias . 30 3.7.4 The illusion of validity & insensitivity to predictive accuracy bias . 31 3.7.5 The misconceptions of regression bias . 32 3.8 A bias emanating from the anchoring heuristic . 32 3.9 Chapter summary . 33 4 Group behaviour 35 4.1 The curious case of group behaviour . 35 4.2 The individual in the group . 36 4.2.1 The individual self . 37 4.2.2 The relational self . 37 4.2.3 The collective self . 38 4.3 Group dynamics . 39 4.3.1 The shared information bias . 40 4.3.2 Group polarisation . 42 4.3.3 Groupthink . 45 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Table of Contents xi 4.4 Intergroup dynamics . 46 4.4.1 Key developments . 47 4.4.2 The discontinuity effect . 47 4.4.3 Power and dominion . 48 4.4.4 The ingroup-outgroup bias . 48 4.5 Chapter summary . 49 5 Debiasing methods 51 5.1 The methods of debiasing . 51 5.2 A typology proposed by Fischhoff . 52 5.2.1 A faulty task . 52 5.2.2 A faulty judge . 53 5.2.3 A mismatch between judge and task . 54 5.3 A typology proposed by Larrick . 55 5.3.1 Motivational strategies . 56 5.3.2 Cognitive strategies . 57 5.3.3 Technological strategies . 58 5.4 A typology proposed by Soll et al. .......................... 58 5.4.1 Modifying the person . 59 5.4.2 Modifying the environment . 60 5.5 A collection of debiasing methods in the literature . 63 5.5.1 Audit judgement and accountability . 63 5.5.2 Judges' evaluation of auditor decisions . 64 5.5.3 Fingerprint identification . 64 5.5.4 Supplier selection in manufacturing .
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