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Guideline for Online IPCC Interactive Atlas

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Guideline for Online IPCC Interactive Atlas Guideline for Online IPCC Interactive Atlas Information about the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Interactive Atlas Content The guideline for the online IPCC Interactive Atlas consists of a Part 1 and 2. The Sixth IPCC Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group 1 (WG1) introduces a new product – The Interactive Atlas. The Interactive Atlas takes advantage of interactive web applications to allow flexible exploration of key climate variables and products underpinning the IPCC assessments. The purpose of this guideline is to demonstrate and familiarize users with the Interactive Atlas and its functionalities. Part 1 is a brief introduction of the interface, datasets and variables that are included in the Interactive Atlas. Part 2 provides examples from the Atlas through figures and screenshots that represent the many options for customising data and data visualisation for different users. A detailed description of the Interactive Atlas can be found here: www.ipcc.ch. The Interactive Atlas can be consulted online at: https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch 1 PART 1: from page 3-16 PART 2: from page 17-28 1. Introduction 1. Introduction 2. Interactive Atlas 2. Examples 3. Regional Information Example 1: Global and Regional Temperatures 3.1 Spatial and temporal analysis Example 2: Temperatures CMIP6 and CMIP5 Example 3: Stereographic plot of CORDEX data 3.2 Functionalities, datasets, and Example 4: Sea Surface Temperature change variables Example 5: Global and Regional Precipitation 3.3 Reproducibility Example 6: Seasonal and extreme Precipitation Example 7: Spatial and Temporal Snowfall 4. Regional Synthesis Example 8: Regional Sea Ice Concentration 4.1 Climate Impact Drivers Example 9: Regional Sea Level Change 5. References Example 10: Climatic Impact-Drivers Miljødirektoratet IPCC Focal Point Norway Grensesvingen 7, 0661 Oslo, Norway Consultency work is performed by IPCC AR6 Lead Author Professor Sebastian H. Mernild, affiliated with Southern Danish University, Denmark, The Nansen Center and University of Bergen, Norway, on behalf of Miljødirektoratet. M- 3000 I 2021 2 PART 1: General information about the IPCC AR6 WG1 Interactive Atlas 1. Introduction The primary purpose of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is to provide a policy relevant, non-prescriptive assessment of the state of knowledge on climate change and its impacts. IPCC assessments are based on quantitative observational and model-generated data used in activities supporting the development of climate policies. The Interactive Atlas enables multiple observational and model-generated datasets and spatial and temporal analyses to be combined. This information supports statements on the characteristics of the climate system, here illustrated in the Interactive Atlas through regional information and regional synthesis. The functionality of the Interactive Atlas is aimed at supporting the knowledge assessment and provides an expert knowledge base from which to build targeted storylines and climate messages. 2. Interactive Atlas The Interactive Atlas enables multiple observational and model-generated datasets and spatial and temporal analyses to be combined to support statements on the characteristics of the climate system, here illustrated through regional information and regional synthesis (See Figure 1). The Interactive Atlas builds on open tools and therefore is an important step towards making IPCC assessments more reproducible and reusable. The Interactive Atlas under Regional Information and Regional Synthesis provides an online region- by-region assessment in time and space of new knowledge on changes in climate variables. It demonstrates the diversity in these changes across defined regions (see Figure 2), in the evidence base for generating information on what changes have already occurred (based on observations), and what further changes each region is likely to face (based on simulations) in the future based on different emission scenarios. 3 Front cover for the Interactive Atlas. Highlighting the different tools: Regional Information, Regional Synthesis, and Documentation besides a globe illustrating for example the expected regional warming at different global warming levels. Figure 1: Regional Information includes the ability to generate maps and aggregated products i.e., time series, scatter plots, tables, climate stripes, etc. for observed and projected climate change for time periods, emissions scenarios or global warming levels. The regional synthesis provides qualitative information about changes in climatic impact-drivers (CIDs) in several categories such as heat and cold, wet and dry, or coastal and oceanic. Documentation provides additional information regarding the Interactive Atlas. The growing societal engagement with climate change means that IPCC reports are increasingly used directly by civil society, businesses, industries, the financial sector, health practitioners, the media, and educators at all levels. The Interactive Atlas should effectively be considered a tiered set of products with information relevant to a range of audiences. 4 3. Regional Information 3.1 Spatial and temporal analysis The Interactive Atlas allows for flexible spatial and temporal analysis with a predefined granularity (predefined climatological and typological regions and user-defined seasons) through a wide range of temporal and spatial maps, graphs, scatter plots (e.g., temperature vs. precipitation), and tables generated in an interactive manner building on a collection of global and regional observational datasets and climate models including available future emissions scenarios. This allows for a comprehensive analysis – and intercomparison, particularly using Global Warming Levels as a dimension of integration – of the different datasets at a global and regional scale (see Figure 3). As an example, the Interactive Atlas provides: 1) ranges of observations of mean precipitation and air temperature change and trends for the period 1980–2014 (see Box 1); and 2) and ranges of regional mean precipitation change and ranges of regional warming change for different global warming levels of 1.5ºC, 2ºC, 3ºC, and 4ºC based on available emissions scenarios from different climate models CMIP5, CMIP6, and CORDEX (see Box 2). The global warming levels are expressed as changes in global mean temperature relative to the 1850–1900 period. 5 Figure 2: Screenshots from the Interactive Atlas. (a) The main interface includes a global map and controls to define a particular choice of dataset, variable, period (reference and baseline) and season (in this example, annual temperature change from CMIP6 for SSP3-7.0 for the long-term 2081–2100 period relative to 1995–2014). (b–e) Various visuals and summary tables for the regionally averaged information for the selected reference regions. The visual communication of climate information can take many forms. The Interactive Atlas incorporates new visuals, for example ‘stripes’ (Royal Meteorological Society, 2019), facilitating the communication of key messages e.g., warming and consistency across models. 6 Box 1: Observations used in the Interactive Atlas. The Interactive Atlas provides trends and changes for observations – surface air temperature and precipitation – in the form of interactive maps for a predefined historical period 1980–2014. Specifically, for air temperature the Interactive Atlas uses output from three gridded global temperature datasets: 1) Climatic Research Unit CRU TS4.0 (version 4.03), 2) Berkeley surface temperature dataset (BEST, here referred to as BERKELEY), 3) EWEMBI (EartH2Observe, WFDEI and ERA-Interim data Merged and Bias-adjusted for ISIMIP), and two gridded global precipitation datasets: 1) Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC, v2018), and 2) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP; monthly version 2.3). Although the ultimate source of these datasets is surface station reported values (GPCP also includes satellite information), each has access to different numbers of stations and lengths of records. Figure 3: The different regions, both land and ocean regions, used as the standard for the regional analysis of atmospheric variables in the Interactive Atlas. 7 Box 2: Explanation of CMIP5, CORDEX and CMIP6 climate models and scenarios. For further information see chapter 1 in the IPCC AR6 WG1 report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_01.pdf pdf CMIP5: A set of coordinated climate model experiments: These experiments comprise the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). A Representative Concentration Pathway is a greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectory. The pathways describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted. The different Representative Concentration Pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 – are labelled after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2, respectively). For further information regarding the RCP’s see https://cicero.oslo.no/en/posts/news/a-guide-to-representative-concentration- pathways. CORDEX: Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment is a framework to evaluate regional climate model performance through a set of experiments aiming at producing regional climate projections. In CORDEX the different Representative Concentration Pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 – are
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