Arian Foster and the Curse of 350 « Prediction, Probability, and Pigskin

10/29/13 Arian Foster and the Curse of 350 « Prediction, Probability, and Pigskin « Kiss of Death Did First Round Picks Live Up to the Hype in Week One? » ARIAN FOSTER AND THE CURSE OF 350 By Gregory Isaac Gottfried Twitter: @gott31 Things That Aren’t Real:Unicorns and Arian Foster Having A Great 2013 NFL Season The date was September 5, 2010. It was another draft day for my fantasy football league called “Dallas Stinks” (named for Tony Romo and the rest of the Cowboys). The league had existed since 2007, however yours truly has still never found himself with a winning record. I was the Mark Sanchez of fantasy football coaches and I was hellbent on making this my 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates season(in other words get a winning record). I had Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Tony Romo and even a new Jetropolitian in LaDainian Tomlinson. However, it was my 7th round pick that meant the most to my team and season. Felix Jones. Now is the time where you check your computers, iPhones or your photographic memory and say, “Hey Greg. Why was this pick so good? Felix had a pretty shitty season with 800 yards and 1 touchdown.” This is where I respond with two statements. First…watch your mouth as there are children reading this. Second…the reason that Felix was so important to me is because the day after the draft(Sept 6), I traded this crummy running back for ARIAN FOSTER. It may have been because I had been listening to one too many Matthew Berry podcast raving about this Houston running back and his stellar preseason, however the trade worked to my advantage. In fact, I still hold it over my fellow tradee’s head every year since. In Foster’s first game of the 20102011 season against the Colts, he rushed 33 times for 231 yards and 3 Touchdowns. Foster leading the charge, my team started 70. I’m not going to get into how my team finished 76 due to a plethora of injuries and bad management by myself, nor will I talk about the remote that I hurled at the ground when I lost my playtomaketheplayoffs matchup by 2 points. 2 POINTS!!! 2 MEASLY POINTS!!! pigskin.psych.indiana.edu/?p=3583 1/3 10/29/13 Arian Foster and the Curse of 350 « Prediction, Probability, and Pigskin Give me a second to calm down… Thank you. The reason that I bring this story up is to show how much I love Arian Foster. He is my first real memory of watching football while rooting for my fantasy team and I have kept him every year in the “Dallas Stinks” league since (2 player keeper league). It may come as a surprise to you then that this year I went out of my way not to draft him. Before my fantasy draft, he was my 10th running back on my list(not awful but not even close to his projections). The reasoning for this comes down to one important statistic. Carries per season. 350 carries is essentially death for running backs. If you hit this plateau, the following season is essentially the Madden Curse. In the 2012 season, Foster had 351 carries, one over the dreaded mark (I had to check the math on my calculator but it confirmed to me that 351 is indeed one more than 350). Let’s use the fantasy time machine and look at past running backs who have had 350 carries and the subsequent season. The most recent example of this odd phenomenon is Larry Johnson. In 2006, he had 416 carries for 1,789 rushing yards and 19 total touchdowns. The next season he had 559 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns. I see by your yawning that you’re not convinced. What about Jamal Anderson in 1999, Eric Dickerson in 1986, Ricky Williams in 2004, Barry Foster in 1993, Shaun Alexander in 2006 or even the best Jets player ever(sit down Revis) Curtis Martin in 2005. All of these players had over 350 carries and each of them went down at least 533 yards the season after. Also, their touchdowns dramatically decreased and many of them got hit by the injury bug. Here are their yardage stats if you don’t believe me. (Yards in season with 350 carries) MINUS (Yards in following season ) Anderson1757 Dickerson533 Williams629 Foster979 Alexander984 Martin962 Foster is already feeling the wrath of 350 carries. Although it’s a small sample, in his first game of the 2013 season he had 18 carries for 57 yards for an average of 3.2 yards per carry. Since 2009, he has average 4.8, 4.9, 4,4 and 4.0 yards a game. As someone who loves Foster, it is sad for me to say that his time as a Top 5 running back is on thin ice. If you have drafted Foster, I recommend trading him sooner rather than later as he’s still a hot commodity. The Arian Foster ship is sinking and you should jump off before he takes your fantasy season with him. September 11th, 2013 | Edit this post 1 comment to Arian Foster and the Curse of 350 Zachary Hunter Berliner September 14, 2013 at 2:52 pm · Reply · Edit pigskin.psych.indiana.edu/?p=3583 2/3 10/29/13 Arian Foster and the Curse of 350 « Prediction, Probability, and Pigskin This is a very interesting point and trend. However, though there may be cause for concern with the massive amounts of carries Arian Foster had, the Texans still have a solid passing game, which reduces the need to completely carry the offense like someone like Maurice JonesDrew has to. Plus, he is still relatively young and has a solid backup in Ben Tate. Though that may be cause for concern with Tate taking Foster’s carries, one can’t help but think that Foster might finally get the rest he needs to have more productivity instead of getting thrashed every offensive play of the game. pigskin.psych.indiana.edu/?p=3583 3/3.

Load more