Year Student Knowledge, Awareness and Risk Perceptions of Coastal Hazards Anna At

Home , Nine News

The role of formal education in shaping first- year student knowledge, awareness and risk perceptions of coastal hazards

A study of first-year undergraduate students at UNSW Sydney, Australia

Anna Attard

A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Philosophy

School of Biological Earth and Environmental Science Faculty of Science

December 2020

Abstract

The role of formal education in shaping a person’s awareness, knowledge and risk perceptions of climate change is well defined. This thesis presents a pilot study which specifically investigates first-year university student knowledge of the effects of climate change on coastal hazards, and how high school education or choice of university degree may influence, or reflect, student levels of coastal hazard literacy, from a human geography perspective. A survey of first-year undergraduate students identified disparate awareness of how climate change will impact the magnitude and frequency of coastal erosion, coastal inundation, sea level rise and severe coastal storms. The survey findings were compared to similar results of general coastal users in New South Wales (Attard et al., 2019) and accepted science. No relationships were found between first-year student knowledge of coastal hazards and associated risks and high school study of coastal hazards, or chosen area of study at university. Four educational disconnects were identified relating to: i) high school education about coastal hazards and primary drivers; ii) education about coastal hazards between junior and senior high school years; iii) student confidence in their knowledge of coastal hazards and their demonstrated understanding of these topics; iv) information gained through formal and informal educational sources. These educational disconnects present an argument that high school curricula could enhance student awareness and risk perception about coastal hazards through a stronger focus on the interconnected nature of coastal hazards and climate change, and personally relevant information about the impacts of coastal hazards. Stronger engagement of students at high school and university about personally relevant impacts of climate change, such as the impacts of coastal hazards that are presently experienced along much of the NSW coast, may lead to an increase in community understanding, acceptance of adaptation options, and better prepare coastal communities and future management professionals to adapt to climate change related coastal hazards.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents ...... 2 List of Figures ...... 4 List of Tables ...... 6

Chapter 1. Introduction ...... 7 1.1 Motivation for Study ...... 9 1.2 Aims and Hypotheses...... 13 1.3 Location of study and student cohort ...... 15 1.4 Thesis outline ...... 18

Chapter 2. Literature Review ...... 20 2.1 The role of education in public understanding of coastal hazards and climate change science...... 22 2.2 Mental models ...... 34 2.3 Psychological distancing of natural hazards ...... 40 2.4 Heuristics and cognitive bias ...... 43 2.5 Community engagement and the NSW coastal community ...... 47 2.6 Coastal hazards in New South Wales ...... 51 2.6.1. Living on the NSW coast ...... 52 2.6.2 Sea level rise ...... 52 2.6.3 Severe coastal storms ...... 56 2.6.4 Coastal erosion ...... 58 2.6.5 Coastal inundation ...... 60 2.6.6 Coastal hazard management in NSW ...... 62 2.7 Summary of key knowledge gaps ...... 64

Chapter 3. Methods ...... 66 3.1 Pilot survey ...... 67 3.2 Primary survey tool ...... 70 3.2.1 Survey structure ...... 70 3.2.2 Survey distribution ...... 72 3.2.3 Data analysis ...... 73

Chapter 4. Results ...... 75 4.1. Respondent demographics and area of university study ...... 77 4.2. Previous high school education and coastal usage ...... 79 4.2.1 High school education ...... 79 4.2.2 Residential distance from coast and coastal usage ...... 85 4.2.3 Risk perceptions of threats to future use of the coast ...... 88 4.3. First-year student understanding of coastal hazards and risks ...... 92 4.3.1 Natural hazard risk perceptions...... 92 4.3.2 Sea level rise ...... 94 4.3.3 Severe coastal storms ...... 98 4.3.4 Coastal inundation ...... 103 4.3.5 Coastal erosion ...... 105 4.4. Talking about coastal hazards ...... 108

Chapter 5. Discussion ...... 110 5.1 Introduction ...... 111 5.1.1 Key findings ...... 114 5.2 High school education disconnects about coastal hazards and their drivers 116 5.2.1 Disconnect 1: Education about coastal hazards and their drivers...... 117 5.2.2 Disconnect 2: Junior and senior high school education ...... 120 5.2.3 Disconnect 3: First-year student confidence and demonstrated knowledge of coastal hazards and risks ...... 122 5.2.4 Disconnect 4: Formal education and other sources of information about coastal hazards ...... 123 5.3 Area of first-year student study and risk perceptions ...... 126 5.4 First-year student awarenes, knowledge and risk perception of coastal hazards ...... 128 5.4.1 Sea level rise ...... 129 5.4.2 Severe coastal storms ...... 132 5.4.3 Coastal inundation ...... 134 5.4.4 Coastal erosion ...... 136 5.5 Study implications ...... 138 5.6 Study limitations ...... 141 Chapter 6. Conclusions ...... 144 6.1 Thesis recommendations ...... 147 References ...... 149 Appendix A: Primary Survey Tool ...... 169

List of Figures

Figure 1.1. Coastal erosion and infrastructure damage at Narrabeen/Collaroy Beach in Sydney’s Northern Beaches caused by the June 6-8, 2016 East Coast Low coastal storm event (Photo: P. Rae, 2016). 10 Figure 1.2. Location of study: a) showing the location of UNSW Sydney in the context of Australia (Source: Google Earth); b) the UNSW Sydney Kensington campus circled in red with arrow pointing to Coogee Beach, approximately 2.4 km away; and the Paddington campus circled in yellow, with arrow pointing to Rushcutters Bay, which is 1.0 km away (Source: Google Earth); and c) Aerial view of UNSW Sydney Kensington main campus (circled) with arrow showing proximity to Coogee Beach (Photo J.Triantafilis). 17 Figure 1.3. Percentage of total first-year students enrolled in T3 at UNSW Sydney, by faculty. The profile of surveyed students is described in Section 4.1. 18 Figure 2.1. Projected sea level rise relative to 1986-2005 mean sea level for each RCP scenario (Table 2.3); a) global mean sea level (GMSL) rise (source: IPCC 2014) and; b) along the NSW coast (source: Glamore et al., 2015). 55 Figure 2.2. Erosion at Wamberal Beach following a series of severe East Coast Low events in July 2020 (Photograph: Earl, C. 2020). 59 Figure 2.3. Coastal inundation projections (blue shaded areas) based on sea level rise (SLR) estimates of +0.74 m in Sydney Harbour in 2100 (upper body of water) and in Botany Bay (lower body of water), which includes Sydney Airport. (Source: Coastal Risk Australia, 2020). 62 Figure 4.1. Home countries of first-year international student survey respondents at UNSW Sydney (n=31). Individual percentages by country are shown. 77 Figure 4.2. a) Areas of study of the surveyed first-year UNSW Sydney students; b) The three primary areas of study that students were grouped into: ‘Science’, ‘Engineering’ and ‘Non-science’. Percentages are based on total number of surveys (n=125). 78 Figure 4.3. Percentage of first-year UNSW Sydney students who studied coastal hazards: a) at any time in high school (n=110); b) in senior high school (Years 11 and 12 n=120). 81 Figure 4.4. First-year UNSW Sydney student perceptions of: a) how well different coastal hazard topics were taught in high school (n=112); and b) confidence in their own knowledge about coastal hazards (n=112). 82 Figure 4.5. First-year UNSW Sydney student opinions on if they would have liked more focus on coastal hazards during their high school education (n=124). 84 Figure 4.6. Coastal usage of student respondents by a) Type of coast most visited (n=122); b) Coastal visitation frequency over a typical year (n=122). 87 Figure 4.7. Image of an oceanfront coastal property presented to students corresponding to the question ‘…would you buy this house and live in it?’ (Q.8; Appendix A). 89 Figure 4.8. First-year UNSW Sydney student answers to Q.8b of the survey (Appendix A) providing their reasons in relation to the coastal residential property shown in Figure 4.7 for: a) not purchasing it; b) purchasing it; c) unsure about purchasing it. 90

Figure 4.9. First-year UNSW Sydney students intent to purchase an oceanfront property by area of study (Q16, Appendix A). 91 Figure 4.10. Word cloud conveying themes drawn from first-year UNSW Sydney student respondents’ concerns over their future use of the coast. 92 Figure 4.11. First-year UNSW Sydney student perceptions of risk associated with a variety of natural hazards based on: a) physical safety of the NSW community; and b) economic cost to the NSW. SLR = Sea level rise. 93 Figure 4.12. First-year student opinions regarding the future impacts of sea level rise based on statements provided in Q.12 of the survey (Appendix A). 94 Figure 4.13. Student perceptions of the rate of sea level change over the next 20 years - values represent increases in sea level (i.e. rise) a) First-year student group (n=74); b) Previous study of SLR at high school (Yes=59; No=15); c) area of study (Science=29; Engineering=23; Non-science=22). 97 Figure 4.14. Word cloud detailing first-year student perceptions of damage caused by a 1-in- 100-year major coastal storm. 98 Figure 4.15. First-year UNSW Sydney student perceptions of present frequency of severe coastal storms by: a) all the students who responded (n=78); b) students who had studied severe coastal storms at high school (blue, n=39) and those who had not (orange, n=33); c) student area of study Engineering (n=27), Science (n=28), Non-science (n=21). 100 Figure 4.16. Infrastructure damage at Collaroy Beach in Sydney resulting from erosion caused by the 3-7 June 2016 East Cost Low event. This image was presented in the student survey in relation to a question about financial responsibility of storm damage (Q19; Appendix A; Photo credit: P. Rae, 2016). 102 Figure 4.17. First-year student opinions of who should pay for damage caused by severe coastal storms such as shown in Figure 4.16. 102 Figure 4.18. Image of a stand-up paddle boarder in Narrabeen, NSW, following flooding associated with the 3-7 June 2016 coastal storm (Photo: J. Grainger, 2016). 103 Figure 4.19. First-year UNSW Sydney student perceptions of the main causes of coastal inundation by: a) first-year student group (n=78); b) students who had studied coastal inundation at high school (blue n=40) and those who had not (orange, n=30); c) student area of study Engineering (n=27), Science (n=28), Non-science (n=21). 104 Figure 4.20. First-year UNSW Sydney student level of agreement to four statements relating to coastal erosion (Q22; Appendix A). 106 Figure 4.21. Sources of information about coastal hazards: a) first-year students’ identified previous sources ; b) first-year students identified preferred sources for future information. 109

List of Tables

Table 2.1. The five interacting systems of Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory, which help shape an individual’s development (Adapted from Boon, 2015). 26 Table 2.2. Common heuristics and cognitive bias that can affect natural hazard risk perceptions as summarised from Baybutt (2017). 46 Table 2.3. Summary of RCP scenarios expressed in Watts per square meter quantifying the total radiative forcing level by 2100 (Van Vuuren et al., 2011 as cited in Glamore et al., 2015). 53 Table 2.4. Characteristics of the most severe East Coast Low events in NSW between 2007 - 2020 (BOM, 2016;2020; M. Harley 2020, personal communication, 18 August). 57 Table 2.5. Coastal erosion hotspot locations in New South Wales adapted from Short (2020). 60 Table 3.1 Summary description of question style and type of data collected from the UNSW Sydney first-year student pilot survey in June 2019. 68 Table 3.2. Summary of the primary survey tool disseminated to first-year UNSW Sydney students by theme, question topics, types of questions and literature references, which influenced question style. 72 Table 4.1. First-year UNSW Sydney students’ general and senior years high school education of coastal hazards by their area of study. 79 Table 4.2. Mann-Whitney U tests of student confidence in their knowledge of coastal hazards between those who had studied topic in high school (HS) and those who had not (No HS) 83 Table 4.3. Kruskal-Wallis H tests between area of study and student confidence in their knowledge of coastal hazards. 83 Table 4.4. Fishers exact tests of first-year UNSW Sydney student perceptions on the focus of high school curriculum in relation to coastal hazards based on their own high school experience. 85 Table 4.5. First-year UNSW Sydney students present residential distance from the nearest coast. 86 Table 4.6. Student preference of coastal recreational activity. Respondents were only able to choose one answer. 88 Table 4.7. Results of Kruskal-Wallis H tests between first-year UNSW student perceptions of sea level rise (SLR) and their high school learning experience; and area of study (Q.13; Appendix A). 95 Table 4.8. Student perceptions of future frequency and intensity of severe coastal storms by students who studied severe coastal storms at high school and those who did not (HS) and area of university study. 101 Table 4.9. Student perceptions of future occurrence of coastal inundation by high school study of coastal inundation and area of study. 105 Table 4.10. Results of statistical tests between first-year UNSW Sydney students’ high school study and their understanding of various coastal hazards. 107 Table 4.11. Results of statistical tests between first-year students’ area of study and their understanding of various coastal hazards. 107

Chapter 1. Introduction

Top photograph: Exposure of ‘Flight Deck’ foundations as a result of erosion caused by 1967 storm at Collaroy/Narrabeen beach (Source: Engineers Australia, 2010); Bottom photograph: Aerial photograph of erosion damage to ‘Flight Deck’ after the June 2016 East Coast Low storm at Collaroy/Narrabeen (Source: J. Morcombe, 2016).

Many people, both in Australia and globally, gain information about the natural world, including coastal hazards and climate related science, through formal education such as high school and tertiary study (Attard et al., 2019). The role of formal education in shaping a person’s worldview, belief system and knowledge and awareness of climate change is well defined (UNESCO, 2009; Myers and Beringer, 2010; Wray-Lake et al.,

2010; Shepardson et al. 2011;2012;2017; McNeal et al., 2014; Salehi et al., 2016;

Brumann et al., 2019; Busch et al., 2019; Filho and Hemstock, 2019; Monroe et al.,

2019; Occhipinti, 2019; Shealy et al., 2019; Irwin, 2020; Yu et al., 2020). However, to what extent high school education influences an individuals’ understanding of climate change driven coastal hazards, and their corresponding risks, in New South Wales

(NSW), Australia, is largely unknown. No studies to date have directly assessed how young adults in NSW, who potentially represent the workforce and decision makers of the future, perceive the risks of coastal erosion and inundation, or the role that education plays in shaping their awareness and knowledge of the underlying driving processes of these hazards, specifically sea level rise and severe coastal storms.

To address this gap, this thesis focuses on the influence of high school education in shaping coastal hazard understanding of a specific NSW community ‒ first-year undergraduate university students. In particular, the thesis will examine the impact of high school education on this community in terms of their understanding of coastal erosion, coastal inundation, sea level rise and severe coastal storms, and how they perceive any corresponding risks that may impact their future use of the NSW coast.

While this study considers the role of education in shaping first-year student’s awareness and knowledge of coastal hazards and drivers, it is not presenting research of educational theory and practice, but rather builds upon studies of public perceptions of natural hazards which fall within the realms of social science, human geography and psychological study of risk perception. This is of significant interest as previous studies have identified a wide range of public knowledge and awareness of

8 climate change and climate change driven natural hazards internationally (Meyer et al., 2014; Eiser et al., 2012) and in Australia (Enders, 2001; Bird and Dominey-Howes,

2008; Buckley, 2008; Hanson-Easey et al., 2013; Attard et al., 2019), both among study samples and compared to accepted science. Studies have also shown that better public understanding and risk perception of climate change driven coastal hazards can significantly influence community preparedness for coastal hazard events and increase community engagement in adaptation actions, often determining the success, or failure, of these actions (Leitch and Inman, 2012; Fairfull et al., 2014;

Grant et al., 2015; Smith et al., 2016). This thesis builds upon the findings of the

MyCoast NSW study (Section 1.1; Attard et al., 2019) and attempts to identify the role of formal education in shaping first-year student knowledge of coastal hazards in

NSW, Australia. While there are a number of studies which have investigated high school students understanding of climate change (Boon, 2009; 2015; Dawson and

Carson, 2013; Dawson, 2015; Hestness et al., 2016; Brumann et al., 2019; Hay et al.,

2019; Occhipinti, 2019; Shealy et al., 2019; Jarrett and Takacs, 2020), none to date have specifically investigated first-year university students’ knowledge, awareness and risk perceptions of climate change driven coastal hazards, or the role of high school education in shaping this awareness and knowledge, within an NSW context.

1.1 Motivation for Study

The origin of this thesis was influenced by community response to a severe East

Coast Low (ECL) storm, a type of low-pressure cyclonic system, that occurred in June

2016 along much of the NSW coast. The June 2016 ECL was characterised by large waves of up to 12 m in height, strong winds and heavy rainfall, combined with king tides, that resulted in widespread coastal erosion, inundation (flooding) of low-lying coastal areas and significant infrastructure damage. The resulting national and global media attention (ABC News, 2016; BBC News, 2016; Bennett, 2016; Hannam and

Kambrey, 2016; McCafferty, 2016; Patterson and Swain, 2016; Rae, 2016) focussed on Narrabeen/Collaroy Beach on the Northern Beaches of Sydney, where shoreline erosion of more than 50 m (Levy et al., 2016; Harley et al., 2017) resulted in severe damage to several waterfront properties (Figure 1.1; Mortlock et al., 2017).

Figure 1.1. Coastal erosion and infrastructure damage at Narrabeen/Collaroy Beach in Sydney’s Northern Beaches caused by the June 6-8, 2016 East Coast Low coastal storm event (Photo: P. Rae, 2016).

Some of the media reports captured affected homeowners at Narrabeen/Collaroy casting blame on the local Council for not adequately preparing the coastline for the damage which occurred (Houghton, 2016; Levy et al., 2016). However, the homeowners had chosen to live in waterfront properties adjacent to a dynamic open ocean beach that was a known coastal erosion hotspot, as defined by the NSW government (Kinsela and Hanslow, 2013; OEH, 2017a; Short, 2020). This type of reaction by some of the homeowners raised questions about what the public understands about the frequency and magnitude of severe coastal erosion and coastal inundation, and how this awareness may, or may not have, influenced the

10 homeowners perceptions of risk in relation to purchasing and/or living in an oceanfront property.

In an attempt to answer these questions, researchers from UNSW Sydney received funding from an NSW Government State Emergency Management Plan (SEMP)

Grant in 2017 to gain a greater understanding of the values, attitudes, and risk perceptions of coastal communities across NSW in relation to the hazards of coastal erosion and inundation. The resulting MyCoast NSW study involved surveying a range of coastal communities across NSW (Attard et al., 2019). Coastal communities of both place and interest (Thomsen et al., 2009) were surveyed to capture a sample of people who use the NSW coast in a variety of ways, both temporally and spatially.

These coastal communities were then categorised, based on common characteristics, into three primary coastal community groups: Coastal Management Professionals

(CMPs), General Coastal Users (GCU)s and Coastal Accommodation Businesses

(CABs; Attard et al., 2019). The GCU group was made up of six coastal communities which included: i) NSW primary and secondary school teachers; ii) NSW surf lifesaving club members; iii) coastal accommodation tourists; iv) indigenous coastal community individuals; v) coastal local government employees; and vi) NSW frontline residents, i.e. individuals who live directly on coastlines identified as at risk (OEH,

2017a; Attard et al., 2019).

The findings of the MyCoast NSW study highlighted a broad range of knowledge and awareness and perceptions about coastal hazards, both among the survey participants and in relation to accepted science (Attard et al., 2019). This spectrum of knowledge and awareness and perceptions of risk highlighted the fact that many people who valued the NSW coast as part of their lifestyle did not adequately understand the hazards of coastal erosion or coastal inundation, or their drivers - sea level rise and severe coastal storms (collectively referred to in this thesis as coastal

11 hazards), in comparison to accepted science. Nor was there consensus on how sea level rise, climate change and the future occurrences of severe coastal storms, such as the June 2016 East Coast Low, would impact the NSW public or the survey respondents personally (Attard et al., 2019).

While the MyCoast NSW study did present differences in perceptions and knowledge and awareness among, and between, the surveyed coastal community groups, it did not offer further explanation as to why these differences may have existed nor thorough exploration of how people had gained their understanding of coastal hazards, thus forming their perceptions of risk. As recommended in the MyCoast NSW study, the logical progression to further explore the differences in community knowledge and awareness and risk perception of coastal hazards, was to identify where coastal communities had received information about coastal hazards which contributed to their knowledge and awareness, beliefs, and risk perceptions (Attard et al., 2019).

This thesis provides a response to this need by focussing on the first-year university student community studying at UNSW Sydney, and assessing the role of formal education in shaping their awareness, knowledge and risk perceptions of coastal hazards and risks. This study explores the origins of where students had received their knowledge and awareness of climate change driven coastal hazards, however it does not extend to educational theory or practice but rather considers this research in a human geography context. The first-year student group represented a coastal community of place (Thomsen et al., 2009) as each student was linked through a common place of study, with individual students belonging to various communities of interest through their choice of degree, or area of study, at UNSW Sydney.

Additionally, the all first-year students within the study sample had all recently graduated from high school. These characteristics provided an opportunity to explore

12 the role of high school education in the first-year student community’s understanding of coastal hazards, as presumably their high school learning experience was still relatively fresh, as well as the opportunity to compare their awareness, knowledge and risk perceptions of coastal hazards with those of the MyCoast NSW General

Coastal Users group. In doing so, this thesis represents an initial elucidation of the role of high school education in shaping the knowledge and perceptions of coastal hazards and risks by an NSW coastal community.

1.2 Aims and Hypotheses

This thesis aims to explore how the first-year undergraduate student community at

UNSW Sydney understands the hazards of coastal erosion and coastal inundation, and their drivers, sea level rise and severe coastal storms, and how they may be exacerbated in the future by climate change, in terms of magnitude and frequency.

The study also investigates how student understanding of coastal hazards and drivers affect their perceptions of coastal hazard risk. To explore the roots of the first-year students’ awareness, knowledge and risk perceptions, the following two hypotheses were posed:

1. H0: Prior high school study of coastal hazards has no effect on first-

year student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and

perceptions of risks.

H1: Prior high school study of coastal hazards has an effect on first-

year student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and

perceptions of risks.

2. H0: First-year student undergraduate degree area of study is not

linked to student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and

perceptions of risks.

H1: First-year student choice of undergraduate degree area of

study is linked to student knowledge and awareness of coastal

hazards and perceptions of risks.

The results of this study will be compared to the knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and perceptions of the associated risks of the General Coastal User group from the MyCoast NSW study (Attard et al., 2019), in order to highlight any commonalities and differences that may exist between these two coastal community groups. The results will also be placed in the context of scientific knowledge of the projected impacts of climate change on coastal hazards, the NSW coast and NSW coastal communities, in order to explore how the first-year student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards align with accepted science.

By highlighting areas of commonality and difference between the two coastal community groups and accepted science, this thesis will build upon previous research by identifying any common gaps in knowledge in the first-year student community’s understanding and subsequent risk perception of coastal hazards, as impacted by climate change. Additionally, this thesis will present new data which will identify the role of formal education on undergraduate first-year university student understanding of coastal hazards and associated risks. It is hoped that the findings of this thesis can be used to improve high school education about coastal erosion, coastal inundation, sea level rise and severe coastal storms, and in turn improve community knowledge and awareness about coastal hazards in NSW. This will assist ongoing community

14 engagement and adaptation efforts through targeted education about the risks related to living on, and utilising, the NSW coast both now and in the future.

1.3 Location of study and student cohort

Primary data for this thesis was obtained through an online survey, described in

Section 3.2. The surveys were disseminated to students studying at UNSW Sydney at both the main campus in Kensington, and the School of Art and Design in

Paddington, both of which are located in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, Australia, and are within 2.5 km of the nearest coast (Figure 1.2).

The study was conducted during the third trimester (T3) at UNSW Sydney – which extended from 16 September to 13 December 2019. The first-year student group at

UNSW Sydney in T3 2019, was made up of approximately 10,880 students, of which

48% identified as female, 51.9% as male and 0.1% identifying as other. The majority of students were aged between 18-21 (84%), followed by students aged 22-25 (12%), and those aged 25 and above (3%). Less than 1% were younger than 18 years of age. Approximately 71% were enrolled as domestic students, and 29% were enrolled as international students. The largest proportion of first-year students were enrolled in UNSW Business School, followed by the Faculty of Engineering and the Faculty of

Science (Figure 1.3). For comparison, the profile of the surveyed first-year students in this study is described in Section 4.1.

The first-year student community at UNSW Sydney was chosen for this study as they represent a diverse community of potential coastal users studying various disciplines at a tertiary level, which highlights their broad range of interests. They represent a community of place, in that they share a common geographic location that is in proximity to the coast, and are also part of a generation that have grown up in a world where climate change has widely been accepted as a burgeoning global issue. While

15 an assumption could be made that these students should therefore have a basic awareness of the concepts of climate change and coastal hazards, this may not necessarily be the case, which will be addressed by the overarching aim and hypotheses of this thesis. As the study was based at UNSW Sydney, focussing on

UNSW Sydney students also represented a sample of convenience.

a) b) Scale 1:100 000 N

Scale 1:33 333 333 N

Figure 1.2. Location of study: a) showing the location of UNSW Sydney in the context of Australia (Source: Google Earth); b) the UNSW Sydney Kensington campus circled in red with arrow pointing to Coogee Beach, approximately 2.4 km away; and the Paddington campus circled in yellow, with arrow pointing to Rushcutters Bay, which is 1.0 km away (Source: Google Earth); and c) Aerial view of UNSW Sydney Kensington main campus (circled) with arrow showing proximity to Coogee Beach (Photo J.Triantafilis). 17

Art & Design 2% 5%

Arts and Social Sciences 22% 13% Built Environment

Law 6%

Medicine 4% Science 4% Business School 24% Engineering 20% UNSW Global

Figure 1.3. Percentage of total first-year students enrolled in T3 at UNSW Sydney, by faculty. The profile of surveyed students is described in Section 4.1.

1.4 Thesis outline

The structure of this thesis follows the traditional research dissertation format of:

Introduction, Literature Review, Methods, Results, Discussion and Conclusion.

Chapter 2 is structured to highlight key topics of focus and gaps in knowledge that will be addressed in the subsequent chapters. It explores theoretical approaches to climate change education and natural hazard risk perception, such as mental models, psychological distancing, and heuristics and cognitive bias. It also describes accepted science in relation to sea level rise, severe coastal storms, coastal erosion, and coastal inundation, within an NSW context. The concluding summary outlines the knowledge gaps which relate to the aims and hypotheses of the thesis.

Chapter 3 describes the methodological approach of this thesis, primarily the design of the survey questionnaire used to obtain the data that addresses the research aims

and hypotheses of this thesis. It also details the statistical tests used for data analysis, providing information for possible replication of the study.

Chapter 4 presents the results of the study, specifically the primary research findings and data analysis.

Chapter 5 provides an in-depth exploration of the key results presented in Chapter 4.

These findings are presented in the context of literature presented in Chapter 2.

Results are also compared to the knowledge and awareness and perceptions of the

General Coastal Users group of the MyCoast NSW study (Attard et al., 2019), and both are placed in the context of accepted science regarding coastal hazards and risks. The implications of the findings are then discussed, followed by limitations of the study.

Chapter 6 provides a summary of the key findings of the thesis, placing them in a real- world context with regards to practical implications and applications of the outcomes, followed by recommendations for further study.

Chapter 2. Literature Review

Damage to the Shelly Beach walkway in Sydney after the June 2016 East Coast Low storm (Photo credit: Getty Images, 2016).

Avoiding dangerous impacts of climate change and adapting to the changing natural environment caused by climate change which we are presently experiencing, and will continue to experience in the future, is one of the most urgent social issues we face today (Serrao-Neumann et al., 2015; IPCC, 2018; Rychetnik et al., 2018; Borchers-

Arriagada et al., 2020). As such, understanding public perceptions of climate change driven natural hazards and their associated risks, is critical in order to effectively engage and encourage public participation in the major societal transformations that are needed to successfully adapt to our changing climate (Spence et al., 2012; Barnett et al., 2013; 2014; Serrao-Neumann et al., 2015; Smith et al., 2016; CoastAdapt,

2017). Therefore, it is also of great importance to identify where the public gains their information about natural hazards and climate change, how this information is interpreted based on existing knowledge structures and, in turn, how these knowledge and awareness influence public perceptions of risk. This Chapter explores theories and literature of climate change and environmental education, formation of knowledge structures, and natural hazard risk perceptions, as well as literature about sea level rise, severe coastal storms, coastal erosion, and coastal inundation – in the context of the New South Wales (NSW) coast and coastal community.

An abundance of literature exists relating to the projected impacts and possible solutions related to sea level rise, coastal erosion, and coastal inundation on the New

South Wales (NSW) coast (Watson, 2001; Helman et al., 2010; Ryan et al., 2011;

Svikis and Lofthouse, 2011; Hine et al., 2013; Kinsela and Hanslow, 2013; Glamore et al., 2015; Smith et al., 2016; Siebentritt, 2016; Harley et al., 2017; CoastAdapt,

2017; Dowdy et al., 2019; Watson, 2020). Furthermore, many studies have focussed on how communities perceive the risks of natural and coastal hazards, and climate change, based on experience (Meyer et al., 2014; Lujalal et al., 2015; McDonald et al., 2015; Nakagawa, 2017), governmental information initiatives (Watson, 2001;

Leitch and Inman, 2012; Hine et al., 2013; Meyer et al., 2014; CoastAdapt, 2017),

and personal beliefs, values, and social structures (Morgan, 1997; Wray-Lake et al.,

2010; Helgeson et al., 2012; Graham et al., 2013; Stevenson et al., 2014; 2016;

Bostrom, 2017; Eakin et al., 2019; Kreller, 2020; Lyster, 2020). However, little attention has been given to how the public understands the processes and mechanisms, or the underlying concepts, of coastal hazards themselves, and how these knowledge and awareness may influence their perceptions of associated risks

(Reser et al., 2012; SGC Economics and Planning, 2013; Meyer et al. 2014; Serrao-

Neumann et al., 2015; Siebentritt, 2016). There are also very few studies that specifically target community knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards in New

South Wales (Attard et al., 2019) and how these knowledge and awareness are formed and incorporated into individuals knowledge structures.

To date, there have been no studies which explore the role of formal education, in particular high school study, in shaping public knowledge and awareness and perceptions of coastal hazards, specifically coastal erosion and coastal inundation, in

New South Wales.

2.1 The role of education in public understanding of coastal hazards and climate change science

It is generally accepted that people who have a poor understanding of climate change will find it difficult to plan for the impacts and risks associated with the changing nature of climate change related hazards, such as sea level rise, coastal erosion, and coastal inundation (Helgeson et al., 2012; Meyer, et al. 2014; Stevenson et al., 2014;

Bostrom, 2017; CoastAdapt, 2017). Public understanding and risk perception of climate change has been widely studied around the world, and the role of education in public understanding of climate change and associated risks is a well-defined area of interest (Boon 2015; Shepardson et al. 2017; Brumann et al., 2019; Busch et al.,

2019; Filho and Hemstock, 2019; Monroe et al., 2019). Article 12 of the Paris

Agreement acknowledges the role of education as a means to meet the goals set out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the

Parties, which centre around recognition that climate change represents an urgent threat and a common concern of humankind, that requires urgent global action

(UNFCCC, 2015).

Article 12 highlights how education contributes to: i) a better understanding of, and ability to address, climate change; ii) promoting community engagement, creativity and knowledge in finding solutions to climate change; and iii) engaging all stakeholders in debate and partnership to collectively respond to climate change

(UNFCCC 2015; Busch et al., 2019). Additionally, children who receive education about topics such as climate change, and in turn coastal hazards such as sea level rise, severe coastal storms, coastal erosion, and coastal inundation, are more likely to interact and educate their parents about these topics, which increases home-based preparedness to hazards and increases general community awareness of natural hazards (Ronan et al., 2001; Johnston et al., 2005; Bird and Dominey-Howes, 2008).

Risk communication and education may come in many different forms, however education through school curriculum has been closely linked to effective home-based preparedness (Bird and Dominey-Howes, 2008) and is therefore critical for climate change hazard preparedness. Formal education, at all levels, plays a critical role in forming a young person’s worldview, informing and raising awareness about climate change and instilling a greater awareness of natural hazards and risks (Boon, 2009;

UNESCO, 2009; Dyer and Andrews, 2014; Stevenson et al., 2014; Boon, 2015; Busch et al., 2019; Occhipinti, 2019). A survey conducted on school children by Ronan et al.

(2001) showed that those who had taken part in hazard education programs displayed more stable risk perceptions, lower hazard related fears and had a greater awareness of important hazard-related protective behaviours compared to students who had not.

However, to effectively change people’s behaviours in relation to climate change adaptation, education about climate change and climate related hazards requires a holistic and interdisciplinary approach that acknowledges the complexities of climate change, while covering both the associated science and human impacts. (UNESCO,

2009; Boon, 2015; Filho and Hemstock, 2019; Busch et al., 2019). In the context of this thesis ‘behaviour change’ refers to changing coastal communities’ behaviours, specifically first year students studying at UNSW Sydney, in terms of acceptance and preparedness for predicted increase in occurrence and intensity of the hazards of coastal erosion and inundation driven by sea level rise and severe coastal storms on the NSW coast. It does not refer to a specific theory, but rather an end goal of the theories and literature discussed hereafter.

Schrot et al. (2019) conducted a study of the effects of education on teenagers knowledge and awareness of climate change adaptation in Italy and Austria. They found that after educational intervention, most students had expanded their understanding about climate change adaptation, however there was an increase in confusion between adaptation and mitigation. This suggests that as information becomes more complex, there is a risk of students embedding scientific misconceptions about climate change and confusing adaptation for mitigation, which may skew their perceptions of risk. For this reason, it is important for education about the complexities of climate change to be clear and audience appropriate, so as to not create misconceptions that can be difficult to rectify (Strike and Poser, 1992; Bulkeley

2000; Dawson and Carson, 2013; Busch et al., 2019; Shealy et al., 2019).

Monroe et al. (2019) conducted a review of effective environmental education and found two common themes: i) a focus on personally relevant material with meaningful information; and ii) use of active and engaging teaching methods. Furthermore, four

themes were identified specifically in relation to climate change education: i) engaging in deliberative discussions; ii) interacting with scientists; iii) addressing misconceptions; and iv) implementing school or community projects (Monroe et al.,

2019).

The latter theme was further supported by Brumann et al. (2019) who found that inquiry-based learning was an effective way of communicating and educating senior class students about climate change concepts. Shealy et al. (2019) identified out of class coverage of climate change information, such as homework or science based extra-curricular activities, to be more predictive of first-year university student belief in anthropogenic causes of climate change than in-class study. They found that social factors, such as the process and social side of education, were important for belief in anthropogenic climate change, more so than what was covered in class. While the

Shealy et al. (2019) study addressed student belief in human caused climate change, or anthropogenic climate change, it also offered interesting insights into how high school students learn and internalise complex topics like climate change, and how this reflects on their attitudes and beliefs as an undergraduate university student.

These studies present findings which fit into Bronfenbrenner’s bio-ecological theory of development, which considers the role of personal social and physical realms that interact to shape the character of a person over time. Through considering each of these realms, a more complete picture of how a person develops and interprets the world can be achieved (Bronfenbrenner and Crouter, 1983). The developmental stage of a person, such as primary and high school, is a critical time in which a young person forms their behavioural responses, including pro-environmental attitudes and beliefs

(Bronfenbrenner 1979; Bronfenbrenner and Crouter 1983; Boon, 2009; 2015).

Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory suggests that child development occurs

through interaction within, and between, embedded ecological systems in which the individual takes a central role (Table 2.1).

Table 2.1. The five interacting systems of Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory, which help shape an individual’s development (Adapted from Boon, 2015).

System Defining feature

Microsystem The individual participates and interacts directly Mesosystem Microsystem members interact between themselves Exosystem Entities and organisations accesses by the individual or their family Macrosystem Politics, views and customs that represent the culture of the individuals society Chronosystem Elements of time as they relate to events in the individuals environment

Children spend the majority of their core developmental years within the microsystems of the home and school, so processes and experiences at home and at school have the strongest influence in shaping a young person’s attitudes, behaviours and cognitive development. Therefore, along with parents, teachers can provide vital information which help children to form their worldview, and represent models of socially desirable behaviour, such as beliefs and values in relation to pro- environmental behaviour and knowledge and attitudes about climate change (Boon,

2015). Furthermore, White (2018) described how making environmentally sustainable life choices as an educator can further engage students by presenting a model to which they may emulate and act and change their own lives.

In support of Bronfenbrenner’s theory, the social constructivism paradigm related to learning and education states that knowledge is socially constructed and subject to human experience (Busch et al., 2019). This means that the values and customs, including social norms and symbols, of a society will influence knowledge structures

(Busch et al., 2019) and, based on where and when a person is presented with information about climate change and coastal hazards, these aspects will influence

how the information fits in with their understanding of the world at that time (Wray-

Lake et al., 2010; Stevenson et al., 2014; 2016; Busch et al., 2019). One approach to consider in relation to social constructivism is the role of informal education from the greater community. Therefore, it is of interest to both identify how other sources of information about coastal hazards, as well as information presented through formal education, influences understanding of coastal hazards and risks.

Previous studies have explored how social norms outside of the classroom, media influences, peer opinions and perspectives and the opinions of immediate family have affected adolescents perceptions of climate change and level of concern (Antilla,

2005; Boon, 2016; Hestness et al., 2016; Stevenson et al., 2014; 2016; Busch et al.,

2019). For example, Boon (2015) conducted a study of parents of school aged children in northern Queensland (Australia) and first-year pre-service teachers of the same region, and found significant gaps in knowledge of the pre-service teachers about climate change science, low parental concerns about climate change impacts and a general mistrust of climate change communication. This lack of knowledge in the educators, combined with low parental concern, suggests that both home and school influences were unlikely to support climate literacy in school students (Boon,

2015; 2016).

There are a number of social factors that may reinforce, or work against, sustainability-related or climate change topics presented within the high-school curriculum (Grønhøj and Thøgersen, 2009; 2012; Stevenson et al., 2016). These may centre around opinions of family or peer groups, the level of climate literacy of the educator, as well as information gained through traditional and digital media (Antilla,

2005; Boykoff and Roberts, 2007; Boon, 2016; Stevenson et al., 2016). However, it should be noted that most of the research in this area has focussed on students under

the age of 18 who are still living at home (Grønhøj and Thøgersen, 2009; Wray-Lake et al., 2010; Stevenston et al., 2016; Gubler et al., 2019).

Stevenson et al. (2014), found that polarization surrounding children’s understanding of climate change influenced by cultural and political worldview decreased with an increase in understanding about climate change. This suggests that younger audiences present an opportunity to overcome worldview driven barriers to climate change acceptance, understanding and adaptation (Busch et al., 2019). These results are in direct contrast to Kahan et al. (2012), who found that scientific literacy and numeracy exacerbate, rather than overcome worldview-driven polarisation about climate change in adults (Busch et al., 2019). Hay et al. (2019) also found a slight increase in scepticism regarding the reality of climate change in first-year students surveyed during their first and third semesters at an Australian university. Therefore, it is of interest to discover how high school education influences the understanding and risk perceptions about coastal hazards driven by climate change, as understood by first-year university students who, it could be argued, may not have built a well- defined worldview outside of what they had learned at school or at home.

There is general agreement regarding the importance of education in the proliferation of climate change literacy (UNESCO, 2009; UNFCCC, 2015; Shepardson et al. 2011;

2012; 2017; Dawson and Carson, 2013; Dawson, 2015; Boon 2015; 2016; 18; Busch et al., 2019), and acknowledgement that education needs to cover both the science and social impacts of climate change, while taking into consideration the economic, cultural, political values of the audience, (Dawson, 2015; Fihlo and Hemstock, 2019;

Rushton, 2019). The theory of Constructivism in education suggests that knowledge is formed through individual biological and cognitive processes, which flourishes under the influence of formal education (Larochelle et al., 1998; Amineh et al., 2015).

However, as this thesis is not researching educational theory, constructivist practice

will not be discussed further, but will instead focus on the influence of social constructivism. There are multiple theories that highlight the difficulty of presenting a well-rounded education about climate change to encourage behaviour change to increase community resilience and acceptance of climate change adaptation efforts.

One such theory is that of scientific misconceptions (Strike and Poser, 1992; Bulkeley

2000; Dawson and Carson, 2013; Busch et al., 2019; Shealy et al., 2019).

Misconceptions, also known as alternative conceptions, are scientific knowledge and awareness that do not align with accepted scientific facts, and can be damaging and may inhibit positive behaviour change, as accurate understanding of climate change concepts are predictive of intent to act (Shealy et al., 2019).

Misconceptions can arise from intuitive or experiential knowledge, or poor classroom instruction, and can be extremely resistant to change. Boon (2015) highlighted various misconceptions and a lack of accurate knowledge about climate change among pre- service teachers (PST), those who were still studying education. The results showed that although many PST expressed confidence in their ability to provide a strong environmental focus in their lessons, in some instances baseline knowledge about climate change science actually decreased between the first and fourth years of their

Bachelor of Education program (Boon, 2015). This suggests that although the PST felt confident in presenting climate change information, their knowledge of the subject was not adequate. This connects to teacher quality, an area of research that links the quality of teacher instruction to qualifications, further training and coursework preparation which can be skewed by policies around hiring, licencing, and earning potential (Hanushek and Rivken, 2006; Harris et al., 2011). However, as this thesis focuses on first-year student knowledge and awareness of climate driven coastal hazards gained through from the experience of high school education, teacher quality will not be explored further.

As climate change, and its related human impacts, is one of the most serious challenges we face today, and is predicted to intensify into the future, it is important that teachers are able to prepare their students to understand its implications and impacts, in order to foster behaviour change and adaptation preparedness in the next generation (Dawson, 2015; Boon, 2009; 2015; 2018). The possible effects of inaccurate teaching were explored by Bulkeley (2000), who found that 35% of a high school student survey group from Newcastle, NSW, Australia, concurred with the statement ‘global warming is caused by a hole in the atmosphere’. At the time, both global warming and the hole in the atmosphere were pressing issues in Australia, but are not intrinsically linked. This finding was reconfirmed by Dawson and Carson

(2013) who found that Year 10 students studying in Western Australia had a tendency to merge the processes of the greenhouse effect with knowledge about the ozone layer, and again by Dawson (2015) who identified five key disconnects in climate change related topics, or alternative conceptions of climate change, in Year 10 school students. Bulkeley argued that confusion, or misconception, about climate change related topics was not the result of substitution of one environmental issue with another, but more that elements of various issues were combined to explain the climate problem, creating a different, alternate ‘understanding’. Dawson and Carson

(2013) recommended further teacher training to address student misconceptions.

Furthermore, Boon (2009) conducted a study of Year 8/10 secondary students in

Queensland, Australia, and compared them to results of a similar study conducted in the UK sixteen years prior, to examine student understanding and knowledge of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and climate change. The results showed that understanding of these issues was unacceptably low, with all groups conveying uncertainty about what the greenhouse effect actually was and how it would affect both their own region and the world (Boon, 2009).

This gap in knowledge about the interconnected nature of climate change and climate driven hazards, will be explored within this thesis in relation to known and experienced coastal hazards in NSW. In doing so, the role of education on first-year students’ knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards will be explored in terms of local, real- world effects and associated risks, and not just by an exploration of student knowledge and awareness of the concepts and drivers of the hazards.

To address the types of scientific misconceptions described above, the theory of conceptual change as part of adaptive learning was developed to guide effective teaching practices. Conceptual change refers to modifying knowledge and awareness of a topic which is central to organising thought and learning (Strike and Posner,

1992). This theory supports Piaget’s of ‘accommodation’ of new knowledge, in that individuals learn when they accommodate (replace) or assimilate (revise) their conceptions of a phenomenon (Busch et al., 2019). This idea of conceptual change, or accommodation and assimilation, is evident in the NSW school curriculum of compulsory K-10 Geography, which delineates the conceptual progression of climate and natural environment related knowledge and skills, including coastal processes and hazards, providing students with repeated opportunities to build upon existing knowledge (Board of Studies, 2015). Additionally, the Australian National Science

Curriculum mandated that all teachers need to include sustainability issues across all content areas up to Year 10 (ACARA, 2016; NESA, 2020).

However, such is the structure of the NSW curriculum, that students are not required to complete all of the content outlined in the curriculum. Instead, focus is on achievement of the outcome and skills presented in the curriculum, with content selected by teachers based on the learning needs, strengths, goals, and interests of the student (Board of Studies, 2015). This means that content taught in K-10 geography, while covering sustainability issues, may not necessarily cover coastal

processes and how they are affected by climate change, as the topics within

‘sustainability issues’ are chosen at the discretion of the teacher.

Boon (2015) highlighted the critical role of teacher knowledge and understanding of climate change and related science, as key to promoting climate literacy and pro- environmental values and behaviours in school students. She found a significant gap in pre-service teachers’ knowledge amongst a sample group studying at a

Queensland University, centring around significant ‘misknowledge’ and awareness of basic scientific concepts which underpin climate change science (Boon, 2015). In light of this, it may be that teachers who do not have an adequate understanding of climate change, or climate change driven coastal hazards, may choose to not cover these topics in lieu of a topic in which they feel more comfortable with the content. As teachers represent a trusted source of climate change communication (Ashworth et al., 2011; Boon, 2015), it is vitally important that they have an adequate understanding of climate change processes and impacts, and have access to adequate resources and clear curricula embedded in sound curriculum theory, so as to not proliferate student misconceptions of climate change.

Curriculum theory gives direction and guidance in the formation of curriculum, and provides guidelines for educators in terms of development, implementation, supervision and evaluation of school-based curriculum (Syomwenie, 2020).

In particular, knowledge-based curriculum theory centres on handing knowledge on from one generation to the next, building on that knowledge and generating new knowledge in students (Young 2013). Because of this, curriculums must constantly adapt due to societal changes, shaped by new generations, knowledge and technology.

There are two primary schools of thought within curriculum theory which are applicable to the purpose of this study, curriculum which sees education from an

internal end – ‘learning for learnings sake’, and curriculum to meet external ends, such as the end goal of employability. The modern shift in focus from ‘internal’ to ‘external’ ends has arguably been attributed in shifts in social and class structure (Young, 2013).

However, this shift will not be discussed further as it moves beyond the realm of the aims of this study. Curriculum based on an ‘external ends’ model, focuses on subjects that will improve employability, not necessarily broaden student knowledge about the world they live in, for the ‘sake of learning’. This can be extended to knowledge and awareness of climate change which is still seen by many as a ‘future’ issue (Buckley,

2008; Reser et al., 2012; SGC Economics and Planning, 2013; Serrao-Neumann et al., 2015), and therefore may not be seen as important to employability as other geography or science topics. Additionally, state-based curriculum, such as the curriculum set by the NSW Board of Education, limits itself to the key concepts for the core subjects such as maths, English, Physics and Geography. However individual school curricula can determine what topics are studied within the state curriculum

(Young, 2013).

In the senior years of high school in NSW (Years 11 and 12), the curriculum sets out the units and topics to be covered. The scientific process and climate change science, including hazards, is covered in the following subjects: Earth and Environmental

Science, Investigating Science, Geography, and select Science Life Skills (NESA,

2019a). However, only in the Stage 6 (Years 11 and 12) Geography curriculum is coastal erosion explicitly mentioned and coastal inundation is not mentioned at all in any of the aforementioned curriculum outlines (NESA, 2019a). This is particularly interesting as Monroe et al. (2019) suggested that a key theme for effective environmental education entails focus on personally relevant and meaningful information. As 80% of the NSW population lives within 50 km of a coastline that is highly susceptible to large scale erosion, inundation and infrastructure damage from severe coastal storms, it is surprising that more focus is not given to these topics.

Additionally, Filho and Hemstock (2019) argue that climate change education, and in turn education about coastal hazards and risks impacted by climate change, should be equally and systematically pursued both at school and tertiary levels. This supports a sense of continuity and embeds the education of coastal hazards and risks within a student’s changing worldview as they mature (Dyer and Andrews, 2014). Universities have the opportunity to act as ‘hubs’ on climate issues through conducting climate change and coastal hazard research (Attard et al., 2019), assessing present day conditions and future risks from severe weather events, creating and distributing local and regional climate information and providing technical support for government and the private sector (Gruber et al., 2017). Additionally, university actions such as making

‘greener’ management choices, supporting social clubs and societies which promote environmental sustainability and action on climate change, offer access to information for students who study subjects that are not directly linked to climate change, and create social and cultural links which assist in promoting greater community engagement and adaptation acceptance (Filho et al., 2019).Universities have the potential to further educate students studying any discipling about climate change and coastal hazards, through a range of informal education means. In light of this, it would be beneficial to have an understanding of first year student knowledge and awareness of climate change, and climate change driven hazards, in order to better target key knowledge gaps. For this reason, this thesis will present findings of first year student awareness and risk perceptions of climate change driven coastal hazards.

2.2 Mental models

Following on from the role of education in assisting community knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards is the theory of mental models. The theory of mental models has been well researched in relation to natural hazard risk perceptions and considers what people may already know about an issue, through prior education,

peers and media, lived experience, and other forms of information, and how these inputs contribute to an individual’s knowledge structure, through which any new information will be filtered (Morgan et al., 2002; Helgeson et al., 2012; Bostrom, 2017;

Eakin et al., 2019). Additionally, mental model structures define how an individual will approach and solve a problem, based on what they already ‘know’, and help to shape a person’s actions and behaviours in response to any new information (Helgeson et al., 2012). As any new information will be filtered through this existing knowledge structure, the information may be subjectively interpreted in a variety of ways (Morgan,

1997; Morgan et al., 2002; Bostrom, 2017).

This is particularly pertinent for communicating, or educating, the community about coastal hazards and risks. Meyer et al. (2014) suggested that one major issue regarding disseminating coastal hazard information to people who were confronted with imminent hurricanes on the east coast of the USA was that much of the information presented was not specific information about what was going to happen to them and their property, and so when warnings were filtered through their mental models, they were not perceived as a high risk. For example, it was difficult for people to interpret the communicated information of risk of coastal flooding as being attributed to themselves, especially if they did not live in a waterfront area, although most accepted that the risk of flooding was present for others (Meyer et al., 2014).

Meyer et al. (2014) suggested that because many people’s houses had not been flooded before, it was hard for them to understanding that flooding was an imminent risk, even though authorities and media were telling them to prepare or evacuate

(Meyer et al., 2014).

The idea that information needs to be presented in a way that is audience specific is similar to the themes of effective environmental education as identified by Monroe et al. (2019), who stated that a focus on personally relevant material with meaningful

information is key to positive student engagement. In an interview

(Knowledge@Wharton, 2014), Meyer suggested that when people fail to adequately understand the threat of natural hazards, often through poor mental models, it leads to insufficient preparation. When linked to less imminent disasters, such as sea level rise enhanced by climate change, Meyer highlighted the difficulty of mentally picturing the effects, therefore it was hard to perceive the risk ‒ ‘it’s hard to picture your house underwater if you’ve been living in a place for a long time and have never seen the water rising’ (Knowledge@Wharton, 2014).

In contrast, an Australian study of community resilience, adaptability and perceptions of climate change conducted by Boon et al (2012), found that people with prior experience, and therefore perhaps a more immediate and personal mental model, of a natural hazard often have an unhelpful ‘wait and see’ attitude to impending natural disasters which can be detrimental to preparedness. This suggests that even the communication of personally relevant information about an impending disaster may not necessarily lead to appropriate action. In order to address this attitude, Boon et al. (2012) suggested that education is required to promote adaptation to climate change, and address significant gaps in community awareness of climate change risks, with schools representing the most appropriate forum for climate change information (Boon et al., 2012).

The concept of focussing on local, personally relevant information is further supported by Boon (2018), who suggested that enhancement of community resilience and adaptation to climate change is supported by strong connections within the community and a sense of place, which highlights the need for place specific information and education about climate change driven hazards in a local or regional context. Furthermore, Akerlof et al. (2016) explored community polarization on adaptation options based on individuals worldview and perceptions of sea level rise

and found that focussing on problem-solving on a local level helped to reduce the polarising effects of cultural worldviews. This is further supported by the theory of critical place-based education, which involves hands-on, community engaged learning, providing relevant knowledge and experience to work towards solutions of social-environmental issues such as climate change (Stevenson, 2008; McInerney et al., 2010).

Through a number of studies, Meyer found that people are subject to three major biases (Meyer, 2010; Meyer et al. 2014): i) a tendency to under-estimate the future and impacts in the future, or ‘optimism bias’; ii) the rapid rate in which people forget the past, or ‘rosy retrospection’ and; iii) if in doubt, follow the advice from people who are in a similar situation, which represents a type of ‘authority bias’ – in that if someone has had experience, they have a level of authority. These biases, when incorporated into a mental model, can significantly influence perceptions of risks. This construct is further built upon by Eakin et al. (2019), who suggested that narratives are constructed to incorporate phenomena, like extreme coastal hazard events, and lived experience into existing cognitive structures, or mental models. In this way, narratives are suggested to correlate with mental models.

The example used to demonstrate this states that an individual may have a mental model that associates forested areas with greater rainfall (Eakin et al., 2019). This mental model supports a narrative that planting trees will bring rain and connects the idea that deforestation causes drought (Eakin et al. 2019). These narratives are not just formed through direct experience, but also the experiences of peers, social and cultural networks and belief systems, and information read or heard, and built into the knowledge structure, or mental model, of the individual (Morgon et al., 2002; Bostrom,

2017; Eakin et al. 2019). The interpretation of any new information received by this individual, irrespective of objectivity or quality of scientific evidence, will be influenced

by this mental model and narrative structure (Morgen et al., 2002; Helgeson et al.,

2012; Doyle et al., 2014; Bostrom, 2017; Eakin et al., 2019). This highlights the importance of clear, accurate education about climate change science and coastal hazards, in order to shape a more accurate and discerning mental model in future generations.

In earlier Australian studies, public knowledge and awareness of climate change

(Bulkeley, 2000) and barriers to adaptation (Measham et al., 2011; Ryan et al., 2011;

Barnett et al., 2013) were explored. As previously discussed in relation to scientific misconceptions, Bulkeley (2000) assessed high school student knowledge and awareness of climate change in Newcastle, Australia. The results in which high school students incorrectly linked global warming to other climate change related phenomena have been found in multiple later studies (Boon, 2009; Shepardson et al.,

2011; Dawson and Carson, 2013; Dawson 2015; Jarrett and Takacs, 2020). These confusion over climate related terminology and linkages between, were built into the student’s mental models, and as such, should not simply be dismissed as misunderstanding of the issue, but rather representations of a common mental model shared among this community that was likely learned through formal education.

Ryan et al. (2011) conducted a survey of people’s attitudes to issues including sea level rise and coastal environments and classified the respondents into 3 groups based on their perceptions including; those who were concerned about the threat of sea level rise; those who were unsure whether sea level rise posed a threat and; those who rejected the notion that sea levels will rise and pose a threat. The study further explored the perceptions of these ‘sea level rise rejectionists’ (Ryan et al., 2011) and issues of misperceptions about scientifically supported information about sea level rise in Australia (Ryan et al., 2011). A strong theme of inherent distrust of the government to be ‘honest’ about climate change ran through many of the ‘rejectionist’

responses, with respondents tending to believe the government to be involved in

‘deliberate fraud’ to waste ‘taxpayers money’ (Ryan et al., 2011). This shows how a resistance to publicly available, scientifically accepted, information is built into a mental model, influencing an individual’s worldview, making it very difficult for said individual to accept contradictory information (Akerlof et al., 2016).

Barnett et al. (2013) focussed on public perceptions of adaptation to climate change and found that there was some confusion in the understanding of terminology and, to a small extent, the processes of coastal hazards by the study participants. For example, there was some confusion in the interpretation of the term ‘1 in 100 year’ event, which is often used to describe the occurrence of significant natural hazard events like floods or storms. This confusion highlights the misunderstanding of terminology commonly used to explain the complex topic of climate change and hazardous events, which can be built into mental models that can alter the way future information is interpreted (Bostrom, 2017).

Similar to the theory of scientific misconceptions as discussed in Section 2.1 (Strike and Poser, 1992; Bulkeley 2000; Shealy et al., 2019; Busch et al., 2019), mental models influence the way in which new information is interpreted and, as such, may lead to misknowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and a skewed perception of risk. Therefore, it is of interest to identify the role of education in shaping public understanding of coastal hazards and risks in order to assess the possibility of developing education initiatives that may help develop more robust mental models within future NSW coastal communities in regard to coastal hazards and their associated risk, to enhance adaptation and community resilience (Boon, 2018).

Hazard understanding is linked to the level of risk perceived, so it is critical to identify what people already know about coastal hazards, and how this knowledge will influence any new information presented by way of filtering through a mental model

(Ryan et al., 2011; Meyer et al., 2014; Barnett et al., 2013; Bostrom, 2017). Formal education, either at secondary school or in tertiary education institutions, plays a pivotal role in shaping a young person’s worldview (Chambers, 2009; Dyer and

Andrews, 2014; McNeal et al., 2014; Brumann et al., 2019; Busch et al., 2019; Chopra et al., 2019; Filho and Hemstock, 2019; Gubler et al., 2019; Irwin, 2020; Jarrett and

Takacs, 2020) and therefore forms a key building block of an individual’s mental model. For this reason, the first hypothesis of this thesis examines if high school education of coastal erosion and inundation and their associated drivers, sea level rise and severe coastal storms, influences first-year university students’ awareness and perceptions of coastal hazards and related risks, and how differing levels of awareness and knowledge may fit into their mental model of climate related risks of coastal hazards.

2.3 Psychological distancing of natural hazards

Another theory that has been explored in relation to risk perceptions of natural hazards, is the theory of psychological distance. Spence et al. (2012) wanted to find out why some people, while accepting the occurrence of climate change, were unlikely to change their behaviour to address the perceived risk of climate change. It has been suggested that this is partially due to the perception that climate change is a psychologically distant issue, which means that people tend to think that climate change risks only affect, or represent a more serious threat to, other people or nations, or those born far into the future (Lorenzoni and Pidgeon, 2006; Leiserowitz et al.,

2010; Spence and Pigeon, 2010; Spence et al., 2012; Gubler et al., 2019).

Additionally, people tend to judge personal risks of climate change to be lower than societal risks (Leiserowitz et al., 2010; Spence and Pidgeon, 2010). Spence et al.

(2012) found that lower psychological distance was linked to higher concern about climate change, meaning that people who were more concerned about climate

change perceived climate related risks to be closer to them, both in a geographical and social sense. Furthermore, perceived impacts on developing nations, an indicator of social distance, was significantly related to preparedness to act on climate change

(Spence et al., 2012).

In connection to the theory of psychological distance is the Construal Level Theory

(CLT), which outlines four dimensions of psychological distance: spatial or geographical distance; temporal distance; distance between the perceiver and another individual or group; and uncertainty about the temporal occurrence of a hazardous event (Liberman and Trope, 2008). Liberman and Trope (2008) propose that psychological distance from an event, such as a coastal hazard, is directly linked to the way that people mentally represent it. Psychologically distant events are represented by abstract, high level knowledge and awareness composed of general knowledge and features, and psychologically close events are represented by solid, more detailed knowledge and awareness made up of specific contextualised knowledge and awareness (Liberman and Trope, 2008).

This suggests that in order to enhance psychological closeness of climate related hazards, more detailed and thorough knowledge and awareness are desirable, which may be achieved through formal education in adolescent years (Monroe et al., 2019).

It also raises questions about where high-level information is gained, to which Spence et al. (2012) linked media representations of climate change and climate related hazards, and discussed how media representations may be problematic in the way they influence public risk perceptions. This finding is supported by Meyer et al. (2014) who suggested the underestimated personal risk of impending hurricanes (Section

2.2) was influenced by the way the hazards of high winds and flooding were presented in media reports. Hamilton (2011) furthered the idea by suggesting political affiliations

influence the choice of media information source, which also frames the way climate risks are represented.

Various media sources with differing political affiliations may question the legitimacy of adaptation messages, or messages regarding climate risks, and counter messages can also be promoted to encourage climate change scepticism or risk denial (Antilla,

2005; Boykoff and Roberts, 2007). This is a type of ‘authority bias’ (Baybutt, 2017;

Table 2) in which an authority, not necessarily based on expertise, can significantly influence a population. In this case it is represented by a media channel, watched due to political affiliation rather than expertise on subject matter (Hamilton, 2011).

The way in which people seek out media sources based on their political affiliations, and how these sources represent climate change and coastal hazards, is a form of confirmation bias (Table 2.2; Baybutt, 2017), whereby people seek out opinions that align with their own, and confirm their pre-existing beliefs, leaving their mental model unchallenged. A study conducted by Bolsen et al. (2019) highlighted the importance of framing and the use of imagery to communicate climate change, stating that it can be used to effectively counter the effects of science politicization, however this framing could also be used to enhance climate sceptic media. Media messaging about climate science, and in turn coastal hazards, are influential in developing public attitudes on the issues, potentially creating further psychological distance (Boykoff and Boykoff,

2004; Boykoff and Roberts, 2007), depending on how, and where, the climate science information is presented.

The Construal Level Theory is further supported by the findings of Buckley et al.

(2017), who conducted an international study of 10,000 European citizens to establish levels of awareness, concern about and trust in regard to the impacts of climate change on the marine environment. Results showed that citizens of different countries were both ‘informed’ and ‘concerned’ to varying degrees, with those who lived in

coastal areas claiming to be both more ‘informed’ and ‘concerned’ compared to those who lived further inland (Buckley et al., 2017). While these respondents claimed to be more informed, the study did not assess their level of understanding about climate change and its effect on the marine environment to be more robust, which means the respondents may not have been informed with scientifically accurate information, or the information received may have been misinterpreted.

The CLT suggests that psychological closeness of a perceived hazard is influenced by specific, contextualised knowledge and awareness, which suggests that formal education about climate change and its effect on coastal hazards may play a role in influencing public perceptions of risk surrounding these hazards. However, it is worth considering the role of cognitive bias as discussed in relation to Hamilton (2011) and

Buckley et al. (2017), which may also influence the way in which information about coastal hazards is interpreted into a mental model, shaping worldviews and enhancing psychological distancing the corresponding risks. For this reason, this thesis will attempt to determine the role of formal education in shaping first year student’s knowledge, awareness and risk perceptions of climate change driven coastal hazards.

2.4 Heuristics and cognitive bias

A heuristic is a type of mental shortcut which people use to simplify the act of making decisions (Slovic et al., 2002; Toft and Reynolds, 2016; Baybutt, 2017). When people are asked to make risk judgements without context of probability, they make inferences about the risk by drawing on information they have either heard or seen and use those heuristics to reduce the complex cognitive problem into a much simpler one (Toft and Reynolds, 2016). Heuristics have developed as humans evolved over time, and provide experience-based ways of solving real-world problems exemplified by a rule of thumb, an educated guess or intuition (Baybutt, 2017). While these

heuristics can speed up decision making and reduce cognitive effort, generally people are not aware they are using them and can often lead to poor decisions by producing cognitive biases, (Slovic et al., 2002; Toft and Reynolds, 2016; Baybutt, 2017).

In turn, cognitive biases are processing errors which can be linked to memory or issues with attention and information preference, and can distort perceptions, interpretations, and judgements, leading to reasoning errors that can cause irrational decisions (Baybutt, 2017). Examples of cognitive bias and how they can affect natural hazard risk perception are presented in Table 2.2. They are difficult to detect and override because they are, by nature, unconscious, automatic influences, that cause a person to draw incorrect conclusions based on a range of cognitive factors (Table

2.2). It is important to understand how cognitive bias may influence perceptions of risk when attempting to gauge both individual and community understanding of coastal hazards and their associated risks, as certain cognitive bias will influence the way people perceive information presented to them (Slovic et al., 2002; Slovic et al., 2005;

Shepperd et al., 2013; Meyer et al., 2014; Baybutt, 2017).

One such cognitive bias is the ‘optimistic bias’ (Table 2.2), which is exemplified by the belief that oneself will be less likely to be affected, or suffer harm, than others

(Shepperd et al., 2013; Baybutt, 2017). This type of bias could explain the finding of

Meyer et al. (2014) that residents displayed acknowledgement of an impending storm and projected damaging effects, but expressed limited concerns that the predicted high winds and flooding would cause them personal harm. ‘Mindsets’ may also explain why some individuals do not accept new information about climate change that does not fit within their mental model, and an ‘availability heuristic’ may influence perceived risks of the probability of coastal hazard events by their ability, or inability, to easily think of an example scenario (Table 2.2).

‘Hindsight bias’ may also play a role in public perceptions of coastal hazards, whereby individuals will claim that they ‘knew’ a coastal hazard or disaster would occur, and sincerely believe that had they been asked, they would have been able to predict the event before it occurred (Table 2.2; Toft and Reynolds, 2016). This bias is often displayed after significant coastal hazard events, as discussed in the relation to the extreme erosion event at Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach in 2016, which influenced the scope of this study (Figure 1.1), with the residents accusing the Council for not preparing Collaroy/Narrabeen beach adequately in preparation for such an event

(Hannam, 2014; ABC News, 2016; Hannam and Kembrey 2016; Patterson and

Swain, 2016; Attard et al., 2019). In terms of the role of education in shaping first-year student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and risks, the framing effect should be considered, as the way in which information is presented in a classroom, or framed, can influence the way in which information is interpreted by students.

Table 2.2. Common heuristics and cognitive bias that can affect natural hazard risk perceptions as summarised from Baybutt (2017).

Cognitive Bias Meaning Affect bias Emotion such as fear, pleasure, etc., influences decisions. ‘Affect’ is the psychological term for the experience of feeling or emotion. Authority bias Tendency to attribute greater accuracy to the opinion of an authority figure and be more influenced by that opinion. Availability heuristic People make judgments about the probability of events by the ease with which examples come to mind. People may make a judgment based on how easily they can think of something similar. Confirmation bias Tendency to search for, interpret, favour, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing beliefs or prior knowledge, or aligns with one’s values, while discounting or rejecting information that does not. Information may be remembered selectively or interpreted in a biased way. False memory Imagination is mistaken for a memory Framing effect Tendency to be influenced by the context used to present information, that is, how it is framed, beyond its factual content. Different conclusions are drawn from the same information, depending on how the information is presented. Hindsight bias Inclination to see past events as being more predictable than they actually were. Mindsets Assumptions held by an individual which are so established that the individual does not recognize they exist and continues to accept prior choices as valid. Optimism bias Belief that one is at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. Overconfidence bias Subjective confidence in one’s judgment is greater than the objective accuracy of the judgement. Representative People make a judgment based on how much a new situation resembles a situation with which they are familiar. People heuristic may be led astray when the situations are not the same, but the difference is not recognized. Rosy retrospection Remembering the past as having been better than it really was.

2.5 Community engagement and the NSW coastal community

Community engagement is defined by the Australian Centre for Excellence in Local Government (ACELG) as;

‘a two - way process of dialogue by which the aspirations, concerns, needs and values of the community are incorporated into policy development, planning, decision-making, service delivery and assessment’ (Smith et al., 2016, citing City of Canada Bay 2010).

The theory behind community engagement in natural resources management suggests that by involving stakeholders in decision-making, decision makers are better able to make more informed decisions with stronger public support (Measham et al., 2011; Leitch and Inman, 2012; NOAA, 2016; Serrao-Neumann et al., 2015,

Smith et al., 2016). To do this effectively for the coastal hazards that are the focus of this thesis, there is a need to gain an understanding of how different stakeholders understand the concept and mechanisms related to coastal hazards and their corresponding risks (Measham et al., 2011; Leitch and Inman, 2012; Attard et al.,

2019). This is supported by the findings of Barnett et al. (2013), which highlighted that community barriers to climate change adaptation revolved around the inability to comprehend climate science and the relative risk of climate impacts. Other barriers to climate change adaptation centred around feelings of fear and apathy through uncertainty, and the tendency for short-term thinking rather than long-term, strategic planning (Barnett et al., 2013). This suggests that initial confusion regarding the science of coastal hazards may lead to a skewed perception of the eventual risks

(Attard et al., 2019).

Community engagement can often be seen as a tick-box process that government bodies need to address before designing and implementing a policy (Smith et al.,

2016). The communities often engaged are usually made up of people directly

exposed to a hazard, or those who are actively concerned about the impacts of the hazard or mitigation strategies (Barnett et al., 2014; Smith et al., 2016; NOAA, 2016;

2017). Due to the global effects of climate change and the known influences it will have on coastal hazards and the NSW coast (Church et al., 2013; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Stammer et al., 2019), the need to define and engage the NSW coastal community has become a pressing issue (Serrao-Neumann et al., 2015; Smith et al.,

2016; Coastal Management Act 2016; Jones et al., 2017). Thomsen et al. (2009) postulated that there is no such thing as a homogenous ‘wider coastal community’, but rather multiple communities that overlap and are constantly changing over time.

These groups, both static and transient in nature, make up what Thomsen et al. (2009) call ‘coastal communities’.

There are two umbrella categories commonly used to describe communities: communities of place and communities of interest (Thomsen et al., 2009; Attard et al.,

2019). How these communities impact and interact with coastal environments, and how this changes both spatially and temporally, make defining and effectively engaging coastal communities a significant challenge (Thomsen et al., 2009; Hine et al., 2013; Fairfull et al., 2014; NOAA, 2017). The UNSW Sydney first-year students that are the focus of this thesis can be classed as both a community of place, in that students from all over Sydney, NSW and the world, are connected through their physical attendance at the university, which can also be divided into multiple communities of interest, such as students’ area of study.

Engaging with a coastal community simply defined by their residential proximity to the coast, or with an active concern about the coast, may result in significant data bias

(Thomsen et al., 2009; Cutter et al., 2014; Hine et al., 2013; Smith et al., 2016). It may be that a considerable number of people with an interest in the coast (a community of interest) may reside a considerable distance from the coast, perhaps

only having a short-term or passing interest in the area, such as holiday homeowners, caravan park users, and tourists (Thomsen et al. 2009; Smith et al., 2016; Attard et al., 2019) – but still a valid interest. There may also be members of a community that do not have an active interest or concern for the coast in the present, but may do so in the future. It is these spatial and temporal shifts that make coastal communities so difficult to define (Thomsen et al., 2009), but also highlights the importance of engaging members of various coastal communities to capture the values, needs and perceptions of the spectrum of coastal users.

Additionally, it is also important to consider the person or entity framing the engagement initiative as part of the community. Often, they distance themselves from the issue which can result in a top-down engagement approach, emphasising a hierarchy of knowledge which can lead to an ‘information deficit’ style of engagement

(Thomsen et al., 2009; NOAA, 2016; 2017). This form of engagement, in which the information is designed by the sender to address a ‘deficit’ in the community receivers, often does not consider the mental model structures of the community, which may lead to multiple unintended interpretations of the information (Helgeson et al., 2012;

Meyer et al., 2014; Bostrom, 2017). Lorenzoni et al. (2007) discussed the limitations of public participation that focuses on providing scientifically sound information, but ignores the potential subjectivism of public interpretation, or mental models (Section

2.2). For this reason, it is important to gauge what the community understands about coastal hazards and risks, and where the gaps in knowledge lie, before designing any community engagement initiatives. In contrast, studies by Eden (1996) and

Leiserowitz et al. (2010) suggest that socio-cultural factors are the key frames for risk perception, rather than understanding of the risk presenting hazards. Luís et al. (2016) even suggested that greater awareness may increase normalisation of coastal risks and decrease risk perception of coastal hazards.

As discussed in Section 2.1, formal education offers an opportunity to present key, accurate information about climate science, as well as coastal hazards and associated risks, to students at an age where they are shaping their worldview and structuring their mental models. Through careful consideration of presentation of coastal hazard information, educators can potentially present complex information, such as climate change driven coastal hazards, in a way that is relevant and meaningful to students and therefore more likely to be built into their knowledge structures (Monroe et al., 2019).

The topic of how the public interprets information about climate change as a catalyst for behaviour change has been explored through multiple studies in Australia

(Buckley, 2008; Reser et al., 2012; SGC Economics and Planning, 2013; Serrao-

Neumann et al., 2015) and around the world (Antilla, 2005; Eiser et al., 2012;

Helgeson et al., 2012; Buckley et al. 2017). As discussed previously in Section 2.2,

Meyer et al. (2014) found that despite the clear and consistent nature of warning information about impending hurricanes, residents still misperceived the actual risk they faced in terms of intensity, nature and duration of the impacts. This suggests that even when there is clear information about impending risks provided to the public, the subjectivity of the publics’ interpretation of the meaning of the information determines what action people will actually take to address the communicated risks. For this reason, it is of particular interest to identify reasons how and why people may interpret information about risks in markedly different ways.

However, there is also a need to move away from the idea of just providing people with information in order to create behavioural change, but rather recognise that public understanding is complex, fluid and often contradictory in nature and is buoyed by social relations and lived experience (Leitch and Inman, 2012), and founded upon lived values (Graham et al., 2013) and beliefs (Kreller, 2020). This line of reasoning

strengthens the need to adequately understand how much different communities know about coastal hazards and associated risks, which will provide critical insights into how risk communication efforts can be tailored appropriately (Meyer et al., 2014;

Tofa and Gissing, 2017).

As such, it is important to identify the avenues through which people gain information about coastal hazards, how this information is interpreted through various cognitive bias feeding into mental models, which can lead to psychological distancing from the issue, and ultimately how the source of information and interpretation influences their behaviours and beliefs (Morgan et al., 2002; Helgeson et al., 2012; Bostrom, 2017;

Eakin et al., 2019). This research thesis addresses this need by exploring the role of formal education as a source of information, which may influence first-year students’ mental models about coastal hazards and risks. It will also test if there is a relationship between high school education of coastal hazards and first-year university student awareness and knowledge of coastal hazards and their perceptions of corresponding risks.

2.6 Coastal hazards in New South Wales

As this thesis examines UNSW Sydney first-year university students understanding of climate change impacted coastal hazards, some description of the accepted science related to the frequency and magnitude of these hazards is necessary. This section focusses on the science and human impacts of coastal erosion and coastal inundation in NSW and the driving forces behind them: sea level rise and severe coastal storms, and how these hazards are predicted to intensify under various scenarios of climate change (Leitch and Inman, 2012; Krien et al., 2017; Devlin et al.,

2017; Idier et al., 2019). This information will be used for comparison purposes with first-year student knowledge and awareness and perceptions of these hazards in

Chapter 5.

2.6.1. Living on the NSW coast

The state of NSW is anticipated to grow in population from 7.7 million in 2016 to 10.5 million in 2041, with almost 85% of the population projected to live within the 190 km long Wollongong-Newcastle coastal conurbation by 2036 (DPIE, 2019). This increase in population will lead to greater numbers of people living near to, and utilising, the coast through more coastal dwellings and an increase in local tourism, adding extra strain on existing infrastructure and the natural coastal environment. This increased usage of the NSW coast will occur during a time where natural coastal hazards are predicted to become more frequent and intense due to the effects of climate change

(Helman et al., 2010; Leitch and Inman, 2012; Dowdy et al., 2019; Hague et al., 2020).

This projected increase in population is pertinent to this study as the first-year student group potentially represents the next generation of coastal users, coastal managers, and decision makers who may have to interact and contend with a more vulnerable coastline. For this reason, identifying how this cohort understands coastal hazards and associated risks is vital to be able to clearly communicate the need for behaviour change and support future coastal adaptation efforts.

2.6.2 Sea level rise

Although global mean sea level has fluctuated in the past within an amplitude of more than 100 m (Abuodha and Woodroffe 2006; Church et al., 2013; Glamore et al., 2015), there is almost global scientific consensus that sea levels are presently rising at an accelerating rate, that is driven in part by anthropogenic climate change caused by human induced activities such as energy use, industrial processes, large scale agriculture and changes to land use, including deforestation. (Church et al., 2013;

OEH, 2017d; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC 2014; 2018; Stammer et al., 2019).

However, despite this consensus, the science regarding the future rate and magnitude of sea level rise is complex and dependent on many factors (Church et al.,

2013; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). While the International Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC, 2018) has outlined changes to the global mean sea level (GMSL), regional sea level rise varies ±30% around the GMSL (Glamore et al., 2015; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) depending on factors such as thermal expansion, ocean dynamics, land ice loss and vertical land movement (Watson, 2020). This global variation in sea level rise poses further questions about how coastal communities understand the concept of sea level rise, both as a global, regional, and local phenomenon.

In their most recent report, the International Panel of Climate Change (Church et al.,

2013; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) has outlined four emissions-based scenarios that are dependent on which Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenario is followed (Table 2.3), which ultimately influences the rate of change of global sea level.

Table 2.3. Summary of RCP scenarios expressed in Watts per square meter quantifying the total radiative forcing level by 2100 (Van Vuuren et al., 2011 as cited in Glamore et al., 2015).

Scenario RCP Climate change pathway and description Temperature Anomaly Mitigation RCP2.6 Peak and decline: Gas emissions are reduced substantially and urgently over 1.5°C time to reach target radiative forcing levels.

Intermediate RCP4.5 Stabilisation: Total radiative forcing stabilises shortly after 2100, without 2.4°C overshooting long-run radiative forcing target levels Intermediate RCP6 Stabilisation: Total radiative forcing stabilises shortly after 2100, without any overshoot, through a range of technology 3.0°C and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions Unmitigated RCP8.5 Rising over 21st Century: Unmitigated rises in greenhouse gas emissions, 4.9°C characterised by scenarios in the literature

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report discusses these RCP scenarios in relation to their

effects on global mean sea levels (Church et al., 2013; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018;

IPCC, 2018). Under all scenarios, global mean sea level rise (GMSL) is projected to occur at a faster rate by 2100, with a rise between 0.42 m (0.29-0.59 m; RCP2.6) and

0.84 m (0.61-1.10m; RCP8.5) relative to 1986-2005 sea levels (Figure 2.1a; Church et al., 2008; 2013; 2016; IPCC, 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018). In

NSW, projected sea level rise relative to the coast ranges between 0.22 m (0.14-

0.29m; RCP2.6) to 0.27m (0.19-0.36m; RCP8.5) by 2050 (Figure 2.1b; Church et al.,

2013; Glamore et al., 2015; Church et al., 2016). This differs from the GMSL for both the strong mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), which shows SLR along the NSW coast as slightly lower than the global average, and for the unmitigated scenario (RCP8.5), which is slightly higher than the global average (Figure 2.1b; Glamore et al., 2015).

Numerous studies have been conducted, both internationally and within Australia, to describe various scenarios of future sea level rise (Church et al., 2006; Leitch and

Inman, 2012; Church et al., 2016; Glamore et al., 2015; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018;

Watson, 2020) and how this will exacerbate coastal hazards such as coastal erosion and inundation and impact NSW coastal communities (Aboudha and Woodroffe,

2006; Leitch and Inman, 2012; Church et al., 2013, 2016; Graham et al., 2013;

O’Donnell and Gates, 2013; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Dowdy et al., 2019). Sea level rise is predicted to significantly impact the NSW coast, primarily in the form of coastal inundation, most frequently as nuisance flooding, which will be discussed in

Section 2.6.5.

Figure 2.1. Projected sea level rise relative to 1986-2005 mean sea level for each RCP scenario (Table 2.3); a) global mean sea level (GMSL) rise (source: IPCC 2014) and; b) along the NSW coast (source: Glamore et al., 2015).

2.6.3 Severe coastal storms

The New South Wales coast is susceptible to large and damaging coastal storm events, of which East Coast Lows (ECLs) are the most significant. ECLs are low pressure cyclonic systems that develop off the east coast of Australia (OEH, 2016;

Dowdy et al., 2019) and can have severe repercussions for both maritime and land regions, such as loss of life, damage to residential property, infrastructure, and the natural environment (Cavicchia et al., 2019; Dowdy et al., 2019). They can be characterised by heavy rainfall, gale force winds, large ocean waves and flash flooding, which can cause significant damage along the eastern coast of NSW. ECLs can occur at any time of the year, but are most prevalent in the winter months of June to August (Leitch and Inman 2012; Harley et al., 2016; OEH, 2016; Cavicchia et al.,

2019; Dowdy et al., 2019). On average, there are approximately 22 ECL events per year, with roughly ten ‘significant impact’ ECLs per year resulting in major damage

(BOM; 2016; ABC News, 2017; Dowdy et al., 2019). Only about once per year do

‘explosive’ events occur (BOM, 2016; ESCCI, 2016; Cavicchia et al. 2019), in which the ECL undergoes rapid intensification with a central pressure fall of at least 1 mb h−1 for 24 hours, fulfilling the ‘bomb’ criterion (Sanders and Gyakum, 1980; Cavicchia et al. 2019). There have been four particularly damaging ECL events in NSW over the past fifteen years (Table 2.4) including the June 2016 ECL described in Section 1.1.

Of note, during the writing of this thesis, an ECL event in July 2020 caused severe coastal erosion at Wamberal Beach on the Central Coast of NSW.

Table 2.4. Characteristics of the most severe East Coast Low events in NSW between 2007 - 2020 (BOM, 2016;2020; M. Harley 2020, personal communication, 18 August).

Date Strongest Peak Highest Details wind gust Hsig (m) 24hr rainfall

14-19 and 102km/h 6.90 223.6mm Severe coastal erosion at Wamberal 26-28 July Beach on the Central Coast and 2020 flash flooding on South Coast 4-6 June 117km/h 6.4 365mm Event coincided with a king tide, 2016 resulting in severe coastal erosion at Collaroy beach

20-23 April 135km/h 8.06 307.5mm Flash flooding with loss of 4 houses 2015 and 4 fatalities

8-9 June 135km/h 6.9 293.6mm 76,000 tonne Pasha Bulker grounded 2007 on Nobbys Beach, Newcastle

Significant ECL events are described by the probability of a high magnitude storm occurring each year, such as a ‘1 in 100 year’ event meaning that the probability of a storm of that magnitude occurring in any given year is 1 in 100 (Verdon-Kidd et al.,

2010; Barnett et al., 2013; OEH 2016). Doyle et al. (2014) found that if probabilities are used as a method to communicate uncertainties, differences in the perceptions of what the probabilities mean, how people make choices based on them and their understanding of how they are applied in terms of time frames must be considered to ensure information is communicated as intended (Doyle et al., 2014, 2019). For example, it is not uncommon for several ‘1 in 100 year’ natural hazard events to occur in the same year, which may seem confusing to the public and erode their understanding of the concept even further (Doyle et al., 2014, 2019).

Severe East Coast Lows can cause substantial coastal erosion (Harley et al.,

2016;2017; Dowdy et al., 2019). During the June 2016 ECL event, 11.5 million m3 of sand was eroded from 177 km of the NSW shoreline, with an average 22 m landward shoreline shift (Harley et al., 2017; Dowdy et al., 2019). ECLs can also generate coastal inundation (flooding) due to the localised super-elevation of sea level

combining with large wave heights, strong winds and high tides to create a ‘storm surge’ (McInnes et al., 2016; Colberg et al., 2019; Dowdy et al., 2019). The effects of climate change are expected to reduce the occurrence of East Coast Lows on the

NSW coast due to fewer ECLs occurring during the cooler winter months, but there is uncertainty regarding ECL occurrence rates in warmer months and the predicted intensity and magnitude of future ECL events (Dowdy et al., 2019). However, in combination with projected sea level rise along the NSW coast, some of the effects of

ECL such as damaging coastal erosional and flooding events are predicted to increase in frequency and impact in the future (Leitch and Inman, 2012; Callaghan and Power,

2014; McInnes et al., 2016; Dowdy et al., 2019).

2.6.4 Coastal erosion

Coastal erosion refers to the landward translation of the shoreline and/or a reduction in beach sediment volume due to the removal of sand, rocks, or other material, driven by natural processes including wind, waves, tides, currents, ocean water levels and the effects of gravity, all of which may be enhanced by anthropogenic factors including coastal development and management infrastructure, such as sea walls or jetties

(Hyndman and Hyndman, 2015; Brown et al. 2016; OEH, 2018; Tucker et al., 2019).

As described in Section 2.6.3, extreme coastal erosion is often associated with the occurrence of severe coastal storms (McInnes et al., 2016; Harley et al., 2017; Dowdy et al., 2019; Davies, 2020; Lepham et al., 2020). This is exemplified by the June 2016

East Coast Low event as described in Section 1.1 and, more recently, by a series of severe ECL events in July 2020 that severely affected Wamberal Beach on the NSW

Central Coast, a recognised NSW coastal erosion ‘hotspot’ (Table 2.5). As shown in

Figure 2.2, large scale erosion along Wamberal Beach caused considerable damage to the houses located on the eroding sand dune behind the beach (Davies, 2020;

Lapham et al., 2020). This stretch of coast has experienced severe erosion events for

many years (Taylor and Barnes, 2016), most notably by an ECL event in 1978 (Lord and McDonald, 2016).

Figure 2.2. Erosion at Wamberal Beach following a series of severe East Coast Low events in July 2020 (Photograph: Earl, C. 2020).

Including both Collaroy/Narrabeen and Wamberal Beaches, a total of 15 coastal erosion 'hot spots’ have been identified by the NSW Office of Environment and

Heritage (presently the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment; DPIE) as legacy locations at high risk of extreme coastal erosion (Table 2.5; Short, 2020). An erosion ‘hot spot’ is defined as an area where five or more houses and/or a public road are in a current (or immediate) coastal hazard area (Short, 2020). However, the existing number of erosion hot spots is somewhat misleading as there are also numerous other locations along the NSW coast where either a smaller number of houses, or only residential land (i.e. no houses), presently exist in a coastal hazard area (Kinsela and Hanslow, 2013; OEH, 2017a; Short, 2020).

Table 2.5. Coastal erosion hotspot locations in New South Wales adapted from Short (2020).

Local NSW Council area Erosion Hotspot Locations Tweed Shire Council Kingscliff Byron Shire Council Belongil Beach Ballina Shire Council Lennox Head Clarence Valley Council Brooms Head Wooli Beach Port Macquarie-Hastings Council Lake Cathie Mid Coast Council Old Bar Beach Winda Woppa - Jimmys Beach Central Coast Council The Entrance North Noraville Beach Norah Head Wamberal/Terrigal Beach Northern Beaches Council Bilgola Beach Mona Vale Beach Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach Eurobodalla Shire Council Surfside, Batemans Bay

Multiple studies have found that coastal erosion in NSW may be intensified by fluctuations in longer term climatic variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; Helman et al., 2007, 2010; Proudfoot and

Peterson, 2011; Barnard et al., 2015, Harley et al. 2017). In conjunction with the projected increase in sea level rise on the NSW Coast (Glamore et al., 2015; Watson,

2020), large scale coastal erosion events are expected to increase in both occurrence and magnitude (Siebentritt, 2016; Adapt NSW, 2018; Dowdy et al., 2019), resulting in considerable economic cost through significant damage to residential property, public amenities and infrastructure (Watson, 2001; Ranasinghe et al., 2007; Kirkpatrick,

2012; Steffan et al., 2014; Frohlich et al., 2019; Horton and Rajaratnam, 2019; Kelly et al., 2019; Pain and Pepper, 2019).

2.6.5 Coastal inundation

Coastal inundation is the flooding of normally dry, low-lying coastal land (Reghu et al.,

2017; Hague et al., 2020). It can be caused by tidal influences, storm surges and large

waves caused by coastal storm events, or a combination of all three (Leitch and

Inman, 2012; Hague et al., 2020). While major inundation events are often caused by severe coastal storms, they are most commonly associated with higher than usual tides, such as king tides, which can cause water to flow further landwards than usual

(Watson and Frazer, 2009), flooding infrastructure and buildings causing significant damage and economic consequences (BOM, 2019; Hague et al., 2020). Along with the damaging effects of severe coastal erosion, the occurrence and damage caused by coastal inundation is also expected to increase with projected sea level rise scenarios and future coastal storm events (Leitch and Inman, 2012; Deloitte Access

Economics, 2016; Devlin et al., 2017; Krien et al., 2017; Ardeshiri et al., 2019; Dowdy et al., 2019).

Hague et al. (2020) found that in Sydney, Australia, between 1914 and present day, the frequency of coastal inundation events increased from 1.6 to 7.8 days per year with over 80% of observed inundation events attributed to anthropogenic increases in global mean sea level (GMSL). They also found that under high and medium emission/sea level scenarios, future impact-producing coastal inundation events will occur weekly by 2050 (Hague et al., 2020), and that tide driven inundation events will increase with sea level rise and be the major cause of inundation in the Sydney region.

Projections of tidal driven coastal inundation, or nuisance flooding, by 2100 under a high emission scenario and sea level rise of +0.74 m are depicted in Figure 2.3. It shows the highest tidal reach that would inundate areas of Sydney Airport and low- lying coastal areas along Sydney Harbour, Parramatta River and Georges River, many of which are inhabited or contain important infrastructure (Coastal Risk Australia,

2020).

Figure 2.3. Coastal inundation projections (blue shaded areas) based on sea level rise (SLR) estimates of +0.74 m in Sydney Harbour in 2100 (upper body of water) and in Botany Bay (lower body of water), which includes Sydney Airport. (Source: Coastal Risk Australia, 2020).

2.6.6 Coastal hazard management in NSW

Efforts to adapt sustainably to coastal hazards driven by climate change, such as erosion and inundation, are already the primary policy option for many coastal planners and coastal local government decision-makers in NSW (Leitch and Inman,

2012; Coastal Management Act 2016; Smith et al., 2016; OEH, 2017b). The impacts of climate change on coastal populations are far reaching, with potential impacts on multiple areas of local government responsibility including infrastructure and property services, health services, planning and development approvals, natural resource management, water and sewage services and recreational facilities (ACECRC, 2008;

Coastal Management Act 2016; Adapt NSW, 2018). Where coastal development is permitted in areas vulnerable to sea-level rise and corresponding hazards (Hague et al., 2020; Short, 2020), it is likely that affected local governments will have to cover

costs, legal liability and possible compensation for previous ‘legacy’ decisions that allowed developments to go ahead (ACECRC, 2008, DCCEE 2011; Deliotte Access

Economics, 2016; Frohlich et al., 2019). This is evident in the fallout of both the June

2016 ECL event that caused significant damage to houses along Narrabeen/Collaroy

Beach (Hannam and Kambrey, 2016; Patterson and Swain, 2016; Rae, 2016) and the

July 2020 ECL events at Wamberal (Davies, 2020; Lapham et al., 2020). These legacies of inappropriate coastal development, which closely align with the state’s coastal erosion hotspots (Table 2.5), continue to pose significant problems for coastal

NSW local governments (DCCEE, 2011; Frohlich et al., 2019; Short, 2020).

With predicted population growth, multiple ‘legacy’ coastal risk areas and the effects of climate change, it is important to mobilise coastal management decision makers, coastal scientists and engineers, and coastal communities to prepare for coastal environment change, both in terms of physical geography and in the way people will be able to use the coast in the future, which will help to effectively manage community expectations. In terms of policy making, this is often achieved through community engagement with relevant stakeholders to produce policy that addresses multiple, and often disparate, societal concerns. Greater stakeholder knowledge about coastal hazards and drivers, and how these hazards are predicted to change under various climate change scenarios, will enhance meaningful community engagement. As such, it is important to ascertain how coastal communities understand coastal hazards and risks, and how they develop this knowledge. As such, this thesis will explore the role of formal education in creating a more coastal hazard literate community, and assess if high school education of coastal hazards translates to better awareness and knowledge of coastal hazards and more accurate perceptions of associated risks.

2.7 Summary of key knowledge gaps

Scientific information about coastal hazards and their drivers, as well as projections of how climate change will impact their magnitude and frequency of occurrence in

NSW, is well researched and is presently factored into NSW government legislation

(Coastal Management Act, 2016; OEH, 2017b). However, there is very little information about what NSW coastal communities understand about coastal hazard processes and drivers, and the corresponding risks. While Attard et al. (2019) described the understanding of various coastal communities about coastal hazards and risks in NSW, there was little data provided about how and where participants had previously received information about coastal hazards and processes, or how effective these sources were in shaping the knowledge structures of these communities.

Additionally, while there are multiple studies which have attempted to address public perceptions of climate change (Leiserowitz et al., 2010; Barnett et al., 2013; Serrao-

Neumann et al., 2015; Smith et al., 2016) and the role of education in student perceptions of climate change (Boon, 2009; Myers and Beringer, 2010; Wray-Lake et al., 2010; Shepardson et al. 2011; 2012; 2017; Dawson and Carson, 2013; McNeal et al., 2014; Dawson, 2015; Salehi et al., 2016; Brumann et al., 2019; Busch et al., 2019;

Filho and Hemstock, 2019; Monroe et al., 2019; Occhipinti, 2019; Shealy et al., 2019;

Irwin, 2020), there have been no studies to date which specifically investigate the role of high school education in first-year university student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and risks.

As Monroe et al. (2019) pointed out, effective education about climate change needs to focus on personally relevant material with meaningful information. In NSW, personally relevant material could include information about sea level rise, severe coastal storms and how these drivers affect severe coastal erosion and coastal

inundation, due to the majority of the NSW population residing within 50 km of the coast. The need to understand the hazards themselves, and the associated risks, is highlighted through a number of studies discussed in this review (Ryan et al., 2011;

Meyer et al., 2014; Boon, 2018; Eakin et al., 2019). To address this knowledge gap, this thesis will investigate the relationship between first-year university student understanding of coastal hazards and perceived risks and high school education of coastal erosion, coastal inundation, sea level rise and severe coastal storms, specifically within the 2019 first-year university student community at UNSW Sydney,

Australia. The results of the thesis will be considered in context of peer-reviewed literature about how people learn and interpret information, the impact of formal education on public understanding of climate science and hazards, mental models, psychological distancing of natural hazards, and the latest science regarding the future frequency and magnitude of coastal hazards, as discussed in this Chapter.

This thesis acts as a pilot study which attempts to identify relationships between high school study of sea level rise, severe coastal storms, coastal erosion or coastal inundation, and first-year university student knowledge and awareness of these coastal hazards and drivers in NSW. It will also attempt to identify any relationships between first-year university students’ area of study and their knowledge and awareness and perceptions of risk of coastal hazards and drivers. In doing so, this thesis will assess the role of high school education in shaping the first-year student’s community understanding of coastal hazards, and identify ‘gaps’ in this community’s understanding about coastal hazards in relation to climate change. These results can be used to design and deliver more focussed educational material and provide coastal management professionals with information to better prepare NSW coastal users for the impending impacts of coastal hazards influenced by climate change.

Chapter 3. Methods

Flooding of Narrabeen lagoon during an East Coast Low event in Sydney Australia, February 2020, leading to inundation of surrounding land (Photo credit: Jacqui Kirk/Twitter, 2020).

As described in Chapter 1 and Section 2.7, the focus of this thesis is to assess how first-year UNSW Sydney students understand coastal hazards, specifically coastal erosion, coastal inundation, sea level rise and severe coastal storms, and the role of formal education in shaping these knowledge and awareness. These aims were influenced by the results of previous research of community perceptions of coastal hazards from the MyCoast NSW Study (Attard et al., 2019), which recommended replication of the study design would benefit from selecting a more controlled community to survey, in terms of both geographic location and connectivity (Section

1.3). The thesis research and associated methodology was reviewed and approved by the UNSW Sydney Human Ethics Committee in May 2019 (HC109317).

The drafting of an initial literature review, that forms the basis of Chapter 2, helped to shape the aims and hypotheses for this thesis. A variety of potential primary research tools which generate qualitative and quantitative data were then assessed. A self- completion online survey tool was selected as the primary source of data collection for this study, as it was the best suited research instrument to reach the intended population (Bryman, 2016) and was modelled on the approach adopted by the

MyCoast NSW Study (Attard et al., 2019).

3.1 Pilot survey

Before the primary online survey tool was disseminated, a trial ‘pilot’ survey instrument was developed to test a range of bias’s and formats (Parfitt, 2005; Bird and Dominey-Howes, 2008). Specifically, the pilot survey was developed to: i) test the robustness of the survey design, structure and flow; ii) assess the question forms to ensure they were interpreted as intended by the first-year student participants

(McBride and Singler, 2019; Story and Tait, 2019); iii) asses the range of question responses to ensure they met the needs and expectations of the study, both in terms of predicted outcomes and ability to perform statistical analysis on the generated data

set; iv) identify familiar, common vocabulary of the pilot sample group to maximise question clarity and minimise question misinterpretation in the primary survey tool

(Bryman, 2016; McBride and Singler, 2019); and v) use the findings to shape the questions and survey design of the primary survey tool.

The pilot survey consisted of 18 mixed-type questions including tick-box, multiple choice, and open-ended elicitations (Table 3.1). The question themes and formats were designed to engage the intended audience, first-year undergraduate students, and address the objectives of this thesis (Section 1.2; Story and Tait, 2019). Question design was influenced by peer reviewed studies to ensure ability to compare data with previous studies (Redmiles et al., 2017) and to ground the survey design in published, peer reviewed theory (Table 3.1).

Table 3.1 Summary description of question style and type of data collected from the UNSW Sydney first-year student pilot survey in June 2019.

Themes Data collected Question style Reference Demographic • Type of • Tick box Graham et al. (2013) Questions 1-8 enrolment • Open ended Hine et al. (2013)

• Degree enrolled short answer • Gender • Age Risk perception • Personal risk • Likert scale Tofa and Gissing Question 9-10 • Economic risk (2017)

Hazard • Meaning of • Open ended, Hine et al. (2013) interpretation coastal hazard long answer Bryman (2016) and perception vocabulary Church et al. (2016) OEH (2017c) Questions 11-18 Perceived effects • of coastal hazards and climate change on personal interaction with coast

The pilot survey was designed and built online using Qualtrics® and distributed online via a Moodle notification (online student learning platform) to a first-year Science

course (GEOS1701 Environmental Systems, Processes and Issues) and two first- year Art and Design courses (DDES1201 Design History and Theory 2; DDES1101

Design Studio 2) at UNSW Sydney in June 2019. A total of 76 completed surveys were collected (Science = 60, Art and Design = 16).

To maintain data integrity, only fully completed surveys were included for data analysis. Once incomplete surveys were disqualified, a final count of 41 surveys were available for analysis (Science = 30; Art and Design = 11). Quick look data tables and graphs were generated on Microsoft Excel to provide visual indications of the distribution of perceptions of the first-year student sample group, with outliers indicating which questions were more likely to be misinterpreted. The open-ended elicitations were analysed using thematic discourse analysis on NVivo®, to highlight common interpretations, perceptions and knowledge and awareness of coastal erosion, coastal inundation, severe coastal storms, and sea level rise, and these results were used to shape the language used in the primary survey tool.

Data analysis of the pilot survey showed that there were several leading questions which led to inconclusive data, particularly in the long answer open-ended questions, or leading questions that provided participants with obvious answers for some tick- box definition style questions (Bryman, 2016; Story and Tait, 2019). Some answers were influenced by information provided in previous questions within the survey

(Bryman, 2016). For example, placing a ranked risk perception question about various natural hazards after the qualitative open-ended questions about coastal hazards provided participants with a bias, highlighting the fact that the survey was assessing perceived risks of coastal hazards in comparison to other natural hazards (Bryman,

2016). This finding was particularly useful to the subsequent design of the primary survey tool (Appendix A).

Additionally, the survey was titled ‘Coastal hazard perceptions’, which could be considered researcher bias (Story and Tait, 2019), and may have produced a bias regarding the surveyed first-year student perceptions of coastal hazard risks in comparison to other natural hazard risks. While some parts of the survey were successful in terms of correct interpretation of the questions, there were many that needed to be rephrased or repositioned in the survey to avoid various bias (Bryman,

2016). For these reasons, the pilot survey was considered to be a positive exercise in survey design, as it led to a more robust and targeted primary survey tool.

3.2 Primary survey tool

3.2.1 Survey structure

The primary survey tool (Appendix A) consisted of 28 mixed type questions including tick-box, multiple choice, and open-ended elicitations, divided into four thematic sections (Table 3.2). This was done to present the survey in a sequenced and logical order, allowing for smooth transitions between topics, to assist respondents to understand the purpose of the research and encourage full completion of the survey

(McGuirk and O’Neill, 2005; Bird, 2009).

Section 1 contained two exclusion questions, pertaining to respondent age, with a minimum of 18 years of age accepted, and stage of university education whereby all respondents had to be first-year students embarking on their first undergraduate degree. This section also included general student demographic questions, and questions about student enrolment such as area of study and type of enrolment (Table

3.2).

Section 2 asked students to provide information about their prior high school education about coastal hazards, specifically sea level rise, severe coastal storms, coastal erosion and coastal inundation (Table 3.2). They were also asked to provide

their perceived level of confidence in their knowledge of coastal hazards, and asked to identify how they used the coast and frequency of their coastal usage. This section also posed a hypothetical question about perceived personal risk of coastal hazards with the question ‘What do you think is the biggest threat to your future use of the coast you visit most often?’. These questions were placed early in the survey in order to generate raw respondent opinions so that answers were not affected or biased by any of the following questions, which provided more information about coastal hazards.

Section 3 focussed on eliciting student risk perceptions of NSW natural hazards in general, and then specifically pertaining to coastal hazards: sea level rise, severe coastal storms, coastal erosion, and coastal inundation (Table 3.2). As these questions could possibly have prompted answers to the questions posed in Section 2 of the survey, students were unable to ‘go back’ once they had completed a section.

Finally, Section 4 asked questions regarding sources of information about coastal hazards, other than formal education (Table 3.2). This section was largely included for data comparison with the General Coastal Users group of the MyCoast NSW study

(Attard et al., 2019).

The questions within each section were influenced by the results of the pilot survey, prior peer reviewed studies and statistical tests identified for use during analysis to answer the thesis questions and aims (Bryman, 2016; McBride and Singler, 2019).

This survey was also reviewed and approved by UNSW Sydney Human Ethics

Committee in May 2019 (HC109317).

Table 3.2. Summary of the primary survey tool disseminated to first-year UNSW Sydney students by theme, question topics, types of questions and literature references, which influenced question style.

Thematic Example of data Question style Reference section 1: Excluding • Type of enrolment • Tick box Bakaç (2018) questions and • Degree enrolled in • Open ended Hine et al. (2013)

demographics • Gender, age short answer

2: Previous • High school • Tick box Attard et al. (2019) education and subjects • Open ended Hay et al. (2019) coastal usage • Respondence short answer Harker-Schuch et al. confidence in (2019) knowledge Graham et al. (2013) • Coastal usage (time/place) 3: Hazard • Physical and • Likert scale Attard et al. (2019) perception economic risks of • Multiple choice Bakaç (2018) natural hazards Tofa and Gissing (2017) Perceptions of SLR, • OEH (2017c) erosion, inundation Church et al. (2016) and severe coastal Hine et al. (2013) storms 4: Hazard • Previous sources of • Multiple choice Hay et al. (2019) communication information Attard et al. (2019) • Preference of Hine et al. (2013) Bryman (2016) information sources

3.2.2 Survey distribution

The primary survey tool was disseminated at UNSW Sydney between 12 September

– 13 October 2019, which coincided with the beginning of the third trimester of courses at UNSW for the year. It was distributed online to first-year students studying in first- year courses at UNSW Sydney, through Moodle (an online learning platform) and direct email by willing course convenors across the 8 Faculties at the university:

Science, Engineering, Law, Business, Art and Design, Arts and Social Science and

Medicine. Emails were sent directly to all enrolled first-year students in the School of

Biology, Earth and Environmental Science (BEES) and the School of Arts and Social

Science, with help from administrative staff in the student offices of the respective schools. In addition to promotion of the survey via Moodle, further promotion of the

study was communicated online via social media on student society pages including the UNSW ARC Facebook page, the UNSW Green2020 event Facebook page and the Extinction Rebellion UNSW Facebook page, in order to maximise the survey reach to first-year students. The primary survey tool included the cohort of students who took part in the pilot survey study. Exclusionary questions were included to ensure the respondents were first-year university students studying at UNSW. The survey took approximately 8-10 minutes to complete, which met participant expectations. The online recruitment yielded 212 returned surveys.

While this form of non-probability convenience sampling (Bryman, 2016) may not be representative of all UNSW Sydney or university first-year students in NSW, the sampling design applied does provide important data about a specific NSW coastal community, the first-year students studying at UNSW Sydney. For this reason, the sampling design was deemed appropriate. When compared to the General Coastal

Users (GCUs) community presented in the MyCoast NSW study (Attard et al., 2019), the outcomes provide a more holistic profile of NSW community perceptions of coastal risks and hazards that can later be used to provide targeted communications to better prepare NSW coastal communities for future coastal adaptation initiatives (Leitch and

Inman, 2012; Attard et al., 2019).

3.2.3 Data analysis

After the completion of the survey distribution period, the 212 completed surveys were collated, and cleaned on Microsoft Excel over November and December 2019.

Surveys with a minimum 60% completion rate were kept for analysis. Partially completed surveys needed to have included completion of the first section (student demographics, area of study or high school education; Table 3.2) as well as at least one fully completed set of answers relating to any of the natural hazards or processes

(i.e. sea level rise, severe coastal storms, coastal erosion or coastal inundation). This

cut off was decided upon based on the low return rate of the student survey and allowed for analysis of each coastal hazard or process on an individual basis. After data cleaning, 125 first-year student surveys were used for analysis. To improve data integrity, student degree titles were manually sorted and combined into three sub- genres of study: ‘Science’, ‘Non-science’ and ‘Engineering’.

Given it was not possible to fully mitigate against the non-response participant bias

(Hendra and Hill, 2019) and the fact that the results only present perceptions of students who decided to take part (Bryman, 2016), which may present additional data bias, the results of this study are presented as a pilot study of first-year student perceptions of coastal hazards and risks. It does, however, represent an important baseline for further research into student perceptions of coastal hazards.

Recommendations for further study are presented in Chapter 6.

Once the data had been cleaned, Microsoft Excel was used to produce quick-look data tables and graphs of the final dataset to visually identify initial trends and prompt further statistical analysis. Statistical analysis was conducted on SPSS (v.25) and largely comprised Chi-squares tests of independence, and Fishers exact tests where appropriate, to assess possible relationships between prior high school education and first-student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and perceptions of risk; and Kruskal-Wallis H tests and Mann Whitney U tests to identify statistically significant differences between high school education, area of study groups, and knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and perceptions of risk, with a significance level (alpha) p<0.05 (Bryman, 2016). These tests were identified during the design stage of the primary survey tool to help influence question composition, with some data analysis disqualified post-data collection as they were dependent on the size of the dataset, or analysis was not possible based on failure to meet assumptions.

Chapter 4. Results

Container ship ‘Pasha Bulker’ on Nobby’s Beach in Newcastle, NSW, run aground during the June 2007 East Coast Low storm event. (Photo credit: R. Brander 2007).

This Chapter presents the results of the primary survey tool (Appendix A) in the section and question order in which they were presented to the first-year undergraduate student participants (Chapter 3.2.1). Statistical analysis of the data pertaining to each section is presented alongside descriptive statistics, which address the two research hypotheses of the thesis:

1. H0: Prior high school study of coastal hazards has no effect on first-

year student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and

perceptions of risks.

H1: Prior high school study of coastal hazards has an effect on first-

year student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and

perceptions of risks.

2. H0: First-year student undergraduate degree area of study is not

linked to student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards

and perceptions of risks.

H1: First-year student choice of undergraduate degree area of

study is linked to student knowledge and awareness of coastal

hazards and perceptions of risks.

4.1. Respondent demographics and area of university study

In Section 1 of the survey, students were asked basic demographic questions and for information about their undergraduate degree. The majority of respondents (86%; n=107) were under 21 years of age with 13% (n=16) aged 21-24. Only two (1%) were aged 25 or older. More female students took part in the survey (55%; n=69) compared to males (41%; n=51) and five respondents (4%) identified as ‘other’. Most respondents were domestic students (74%; n=93) compared to international students

(26%; n=31). Of the international student respondents, all came from countries in the

South East Asia/Pacific region (Figure 4.1) with most from China (39%; n=12),

Malaysia (13%; n=4) and Hong Kong (13%; n=4).

Engineering (24%; n=30) and Science (29%; n=36) students were highly represented followed by Arts/Media students (8%; n=22). The remaining respondents were spread

3% 3% China 3% 3% Malaysia 3% Hong Kong

Singapore 6% 39% Indonesia

Bangladesh 7% Fiji

Vietnam 7% Taiwan

Myanmar 13% 13% Phillipines

Figure 4.1. Home countries of first-year international student survey respondents at UNSW Sydney (n=31). Individual percentages by country are shown.

across a further eight areas of study (Figure 4.2a). The students’ identified area of study were then segmented into three primary groups as shown in Figure 4.2b: i)

Science (consisting of Science, Medicine, Psychology; n=41, 33%); ii) Engineering

(n=30; 24%); and iii) Non-science (consisting of Arts/Media, Commerce,

Criminology/Social Work, Fine Arts, Law, University Preparation Program; n=44,

35%).

a) Arts/Media Commerce 8% 2% 18% Criminology/social work Engineering 2% Fine arts

Law 29% 9% Medicine Psychology Science 1% UPP 3% 24% 2%2% Unknown

b) 8%

24% Engineering

Science

Non-science 35%

Unknown

33%

Figure 4.2. a) Areas of study of the surveyed first-year UNSW Sydney students; b) The three primary areas of study that students were grouped into: ‘Science’, ‘Engineering’ and ‘Non- science’. Percentages are based on total number of surveys (n=125).

4.2. Previous high school education and coastal usage

4.2.1 High school education

In Section 2 of the survey, the first-year students were asked five questions (Q.1 a-c

– 2; Appendix A) about their learning experience of coastal hazards during high school study. Most students had learned about sea level rise (80%; n=92) or coastal erosion

(77%; n=93) at some point in high school, and approximately half stated that they had learned about severe coastal storms (52%; n=59) or coastal inundation (55%; n=62;

Figure 4.3a). Less than 35% indicated they had studied any of these topics as part of their senior high school curriculum (years 11 and 12; Figure 4.3b; n=120). Chi-square tests of independence indicated that there were no statistically significant relationships found between first-year students’ high school education of coastal hazards and their chosen area of study (Table 4.1).

Table 4.1. First-year UNSW Sydney students’ general and senior years high school education of coastal hazards by their area of study.

Subject Previous Engineering Science Non- Relationship study % % science % (Chi-square) Sea level Yes 83 78 76 No rise No 17 22 24 X2 (2, N=108) =0.445, p=0.8 Coastal Yes 70 89 71 No erosion No 30 11 29 X2 (2, N=111) =4.92, p=0.08 Coastal Yes 55 59 57 No inundation No 45 41 43 X2 (2, N=105) =0.085, p=0.95

General HS education HS General Severe Yes 52 56 48 No coastal No 48 44 52 X2 (2, N=107) =0.49, storms p=0.78

Sea level Yes 38 28 29 No rise No 62 72 71 X2 (2, N=108) =0.846, p=0.704 Coastal Yes 30 38 26 No erosion No 70 62 74 X2 (2, N=111) =1.25, p=0.541 Coastal Yes 34 21 19 No inundation No 66 79 81 X2 (2, N=110) =2.591, p=0.287 Severe Yes 24 15 19 No coastal No 76 85 81 X2 (2, N=110) =0.825, Senior year HS education HS year Senior storms p=0.682

More than 50% of first-year students indicated that severe coastal storms (n=50) or coastal inundation (n=51) were not well presented to them as part of their high school study and approximately 30% thought coastal erosion (n=38) or sea level rise (n=38) were not presented well (Figure 4.4a). Approximately 35% of first-year students had a ‘lower than average’ confidence in their knowledge about sea level rise (n=38) and coastal erosion (n=38), and roughly 50% had a ‘lower than average’ confidence in their knowledge about severe coastal storms (n=55) or coastal inundation (n=53;

Figure 4.4b).

a) 100%

80%

60%

No 40% Yes

Respondent percentage Respondent 20%

0% Sea level rise Coastal erosion Coastal inundation Severe coastal storms

b) 100%

80%

60%

No 40%

Yes Respondent percentage Respondent 20%

0% Sea level rise Coastal erosion Coastal inundation Severe coastal storms Coastal hazard

Figure 4.3. Percentage of first-year UNSW Sydney students who studied coastal hazards: a) at any time in high school (n=110); b) in senior high school (Years 11 and 12 n=120).

a) 100% Extremely well

80% Well

More than 60% average Average

40% Less than average

Respondent percentage Respondent Not well 20%

Not well at all

0% Coastal Sea level rise Severe coastal Coastal erosion storms inundation

b) 100% Very high

80% High

Higher than 60% average Average

40% Lower than

average Respondent percentage Respondent 20% Low

Very low 0% SLR Erosion Inundation Severe coastal storms

Coastal hazard

Figure 4.4. First-year UNSW Sydney student perceptions of: a) how well different coastal hazard topics were taught in high school (n=112); and b) confidence in their own knowledge about coastal hazards (n=112).

Mann-Whitney U tests were performed to identify significant differences in student confidence in their knowledge of coastal hazards between those who had studied the hazards during high school, and those who had not. As shown in Table 4.2, significant differences were found in student confidence in knowledge about coastal erosion, coastal inundation and severe coastal storms, between students who had studied these topics during high school, and those who had not.

Table 4.2. Mann-Whitney U tests of student confidence in their knowledge of coastal hazards between those who had studied topic in high school (HS) and those who had not (No HS).

Student HS study No HS study Mann-Whitney U Significant confidence in difference subject Sea level rise M=4 M=3 U = 661, p=0.101 No (average) (lower than average) Coastal erosion M=4 M=3 U = 355.00, p<0.01 Yes (average) (lower than average) Coastal M=4 M=3 U = 616, p=0.01 Yes inundation (average) (lower than average) Severe coastal M=3 M=2 U = 646, p=0.016 Yes storms (lower than (low) average)

Kruskal-Wallis H tests were performed to assess if there was a significant difference in medians of first-year students’ confidence in their knowledge about coastal hazards between the three primary degree areas of study. No significant differences were found (Table 4.3).

Table 4.3. Results of Kruskal-Wallis H tests showing no significant differences between area of study and student confidence in their knowledge of coastal hazards.

Student confidence vs. degree Kruskal-Wallis H test Significant difference Sea level rise χ2(2) = 3.753, p=0.153 No Coastal erosion χ2(2) = 1.065, p=0.587 No Coastal inundation χ2(2) = 3.306, p=0.191 No Severe coastal storms χ2(2) = 0.394, p=0.827 No

Approximately two-thirds of the student respondents indicated that they would have liked more information at high school about sea level rise (71%; n=88), coastal inundation (69%; n=86), and severe coastal storms (68%; n=85), while only 54%

(n=66) indicated they would have liked more information about coastal erosion (Figure

4.5; Q.1c; Appendix A).

100%

80% Less

60% About the same 40%

More Respondent percentage Respondent 20%

0% Sea level rise Coastal Severe coastal Coastal erosion inundation storms

Coastal hazard

Figure 4.5. First-year UNSW Sydney student opinions on if they would have liked more focus on coastal hazards during their high school education (n=124).

Chi-Square and Fishers Exact tests were also performed to identify if there were any relationships between first-years students’ high school education and their desire for

‘more’, ‘less’ or ‘about the same’ amount of information on these coastal hazards during their high school education. With the exception of coastal erosion, no significant relationships were found (Table 4.4). Similar tests were also conducted in

relation to student area of study, but no significant relationships were found (Table

4.4).

Table 4.4. Fishers exact tests of first-year UNSW Sydney student perceptions on the focus of high school curriculum in relation to coastal hazards based on their own high school experience.

Subject Previously More About the Less Relationship studied focus same focus Fishers exact test (%) (%) (%) Sea level Yes (n=91) 74 25 1 No, p=0.068 rise No (n=26) 65 23 12 Coastal Yes (n=93) 47 45 8 Yes, p=0.009 erosion No (n=27) 78 15 7 Coastal Yes (n=62) 66 31 3 No, p=0.134 inundation No (n=50) 76 16 8 Severe Yes (n=59) 64 29 7 No, p=0.137 coastal No (n=55) 73 14 13 storms Area of study Sea level Engineering 73 27 0 No, p=0.989 rise Science 73 25 2 Non- 75 23 2 science Coastal Engineering 57 43 0 No, p=0.529 erosion Science 56 37 7 Non- 59 32 9 science Coastal Engineering 73 27 0 No, p=0.637 inundation Science 73 20 7 Non- 68 27 5 science Severe Engineering 70 20 10 No, p=0.838 coastal Science 76 14 10 storms Non- 66 25 9 science

4.2.2 Residential distance from coast and coastal usage

In Questions 3-7 of the survey (Appendix A), students were asked about their residential location and coastal usage. Sixty-seven percent (n=74) of the first-year students lived within 10 km of the coast, with 39% (n=42) of these students indicating they had been living at their current address for 5 years or less (Table 4.5). The students who had lived at their present address for 5 years or less were also asked to identify how far their childhood residence was from the coast, phrased as ‘the

residence where they spent most of their life growing up’ (Q4b; Appendix A). Of these students, over 65% (n=35) indicated they had grown up more than 10 km from the coast, with 44% (n=23) indicating they had grown up more than 50 km from the coast

(Table 4.5).

Table 4.5. First-year UNSW Sydney students present residential distance from the nearest coast.

Present address 0-5 years 5+ years 0-5 years distance from coast Previous location <1 km 5% (5) 13% (14) 4% (2)

1-5 km 23% (25) 7% (8) 16% (8)

5-10 km 11% (12) 9% (10) 13% (7)

10-50 km 10% (11) 16% (17) 23% (12)

50+ km 5% (5) 1% (1) 44% (23)

The most commonly visited coastal environment by the first-year students was ocean beaches (55%; n=68), followed by harbours/estuaries/lagoons (16%, n=20; Figure

4.6a). Approximately one quarter (23%, n=28) of respondents indicated that they

‘don’t spend any time at the coast’ (Figure 4.6a). Twenty-one percent (n=26) of first- year students indicated that they visit the coast at least once a week, 29% (n=36) indicated they visit the coast once a month, and roughly 50% (n=60) visited the coast on average a few times a year or never (Figure 4.6b).

23% Ocean beaches

Harbour/estuary/lagoon

2% Headlands/rock platforms 4% 55% Other

I don't spend time at the 16% coast

b) 50

10 Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent

0 Never A few times a Once a month Once a week Almost year everyday

Coastal visitation frequency Figure 4.6. Coastal usage of student respondents by a) Type of coast most visited (n=122); b) Coastal visitation frequency over a typical year (n=122).

Table 4.6 shows that ‘Bathing/swimming’ was identified as the most popular coastal activity undertaken by the student respondents (47%; n=54), followed by ‘enjoying the view/connecting with nature’ (27%, n=31) and ‘eating/socialising/shopping’ (11%, n=13).

Table 4.6. Student preference of coastal recreational activity. Respondents were only able to choose one answer.

Activity Student % (#) Bathing/swimming 44% (54) Enjoying the view/connecting with nature 27% (33) Shopping/eating/socialising 10% (13) Exercise (e.g. jogging, fitness group) 5.5% (7) Other 5.5% (7) Surfing/boardriding 2.5% (3) Snorkelling/diving 1.5% (2) Sunbathing 1.5% (2) Boating/sailing 1% (1) Hiking/bushwalking 1.5% (2)

4.2.3 Risk perceptions of threats to future use of the coast

In Questions 8-10 (Appendix A), students were shown an image of an oceanfront property (Figure 4.7) and were asked ‘If you had the opportunity and finances, would you buy this house and live in it?’ (Q8; Appendix 1). Almost half of the student respondents (47%; n=56) indicated they would not buy and live in the property, 32%

(n=39) stated they would and 21% (n=25) were unsure.

Figure 4.7. Image of an oceanfront coastal property presented to students corresponding to the question ‘…would you buy this house and live in it?’ (Q.8; Appendix A).

Students were then asked to elaborate on their reason(s) for their answer regarding purchasing the house shown in Figure 4.7 (Q.8a; Appendix 1). Thematic analysis identified various themes in student reasoning (Figure 4.8). The themes presented in

Figure 4.8 are not mutually exclusive, but rather represent the percentage of respondents whose answers corresponded to each theme, with some student answers touching on multiple themes. For those who were unsure, ‘not enough information’ was linked to the feeling that it was probably ok because the house had been purposely built there, so they would need to see information regarding why they shouldn’t buy and live in the house before making a definitive decision.

a) Tsunami Climate change Flood damage Cost of up keep Storm damage Sea level rise Don't like coastal living Erosion damage Too close

0 10 20 30 40

b) Coastal protections

Insurance

Profit/investment

Coastal access

Coastal lifestyle

Benefit outweighs risk

View

Location

0 10 20 30 40 50

View Not enough information

Positives Location Don't like coastal living Too close Sea level rise Cost of upkeep Storm damage

Negatives Tsunami Flood damage Erosion damage 0 10 20 30 40 Respondent percentage (%) Figure 4.8. First-year UNSW Sydney student answers to Q.8b of the survey (Appendix A) providing their reasons in relation to the coastal residential property shown in Figure 4.7 for: a) not purchasing it (n=55); b) purchasing it (n=34); c) unsure about purchasing it (n=19).

Students enrolled in Non-science courses were more likely to purchase the property, with Science students being the least likely (Figure 4.9). A Chi-square test of independence identified a relationship between first-year students’ area of study and their likelihood of purchasing the property (X2 (4, N=112) = 15.82, p=0.003).

70 No 60

50 Yes

40 Unsure 30

Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent 10

0 Engineering Science Non-science

Area of study

Figure 4.9. First-year UNSW Sydney students intent to purchase an oceanfront property by area of study (Q16, Appendix A).

First-year students were asked ‘In 20 years’ time, do you think that you will be able to enjoy the coast that you visit most often in the same way as you do now?’ (Q.9;

Appendix 1). More students (59%; n=44) thought they would be able to compare to those who thought they would not (41%; n=31). Students were then asked to describe what they thought ‘represents the biggest threat to their future use of the coast that they visit most’ (Q.10, Appendix A). ‘Sea level rise’ and ‘pollution’, followed by ‘climate change’, were the dominant themes which emerged (Figure 4.10).

Figure 4.10. Word cloud conveying themes drawn from first-year UNSW Sydney student respondents’ concerns over their future use of the coast.

4.3. First-year student understanding of coastal hazards and risks

4.3.1 Natural hazard risk perceptions

Question 11 of the survey (Appendix A) presented the first-year students with a list of natural hazards and asked them to indicate their perceived level of risk that each hazard posed to the New South Wales community in terms of both physical safety

(Figure 4.11a) and economic cost (Figure 4.11b). In general, heat related hazards

(heatwaves, bushfires, droughts) were seen to pose a higher risk to both physical safety and economically, in comparison to coastal hazards (sea level rise, erosion and severe coastal storms).

a) 100% Extermely high

Very high 80%

High 60% Neutral

40% Low Respondent percentage Respondent

Very low 20%

Extremely low 0% Heatwave Drought Bushfire Erosion SLR Severe Flooding coastal storm

b) 100% Extremely high

80% Very high

High 60%

Neutral

40%

Low Respondent percentage percentage Respondent 20% Very low

Extremely 0% Drought Bushfire Severe Flooding SLR Erosion Heatwave low coastal storm

Natural hazard

Figure 4.11. First-year UNSW Sydney student perceptions of risk associated with a variety of natural hazards based on: a) physical safety of the NSW community; and b) economic cost to the NSW. SLR = Sea level rise.

4.3.2 Sea level rise

Questions 12-14 of the survey (Appendix A) asked the first-year students specific

questions about sea level rise. The majority (85%; n=87) indicated that sea level rise

was occurring, while 15% (n=15) indicated they were either ‘unsure’ (n=11) or thought

it was ‘not occurring’ (n=4). No statistically relevant relationships were found between

prior high school education of sea level rise and the first-year student perceptions of

the occurrence of sea level rise (Table 4.10), or between student area of university

study and their perception of the occurrence of sea level rise (Table 4.11).

Over 70% (n=77) of first-year students agreed that ‘the NSW coast will be affected

by sea level rise’ (Figure 4.12). Approximately 65% (n=63) agreed with the statement

that ‘the coast I most frequently visit will be impacted by sea level rise’. Fewer than

60% (n=56) of the students thought that sea level rise will have a ‘big impact’ on

them (Figure 4.12).

100% Strongly agree

Agree 80%

Somewhat agree 60% Neither agree or disagree

40% Somewhat disagree

Disagree Respondent percentage Respondent 20% Strongly disagree 0% Sea level rise will The NSW coast The coast I most Sea level rise will mostly affect will be affected by frequently visit will have a big impact countries other sea level rise be impacted by on me in the future than Australia sea level rise

Figure 4.12. First-year student opinions regarding the future impacts of sea level rise based on statements provided in Q.12 of the survey (Appendix A).

Kruskal-Wallis H tests were conducted to assess if there were any statistically significant differences between students who had studied sea level rise at high school and those who had not; or between students’ area of university study and their perceptions of the regional effects of sea level rise. While no statistically significant differences were found in relation to high school study, a significant difference was found between the three areas of university study (Table 4.7).

Table 4.7. Results of Kruskal-Wallis H tests between first-year UNSW student perceptions of sea level rise (SLR) and their high school learning experience; and area of study (Q.13; Appendix A).

Perceptions of SLR Test group Kruskal-Wallis H test Significant difference Q13a. SLR will High school χ2(1) = 1.168, p=0.28 No mostly affect other 2 countries Area of study χ (2) = 1.404, p=0.496 No Q13b. SLR will High school χ2(1) = 0.382, p=0.536 No affect the NSW 2 coast Area of study χ (2) = 7.547, p=0.026 Yes Q13c. SLR will High school χ2(1) = 1.132, p=0.287 No

affect the coast I 2 most frequently Area of study χ (2) = 5.287, p=0.071 No visit Q13d. SLR will High school χ2(1) = 0.791, p=0.374 No directly affect me Area of study χ2(2) = 0.601, p=0.741 No

A post hoc test of pairwise comparisons was performed on the results of Question

13b to test the difference in means in order to explore this identified relationship further. A significant difference in means for the statement ‘SLR will affect the NSW coast’ existed between the ‘Engineering’ and ‘Non-science’ groups (p=0.016) and the

‘Non-science’ and ‘Science’ groups (p=0.031), but there was no statistical significance between ‘Science’ and ‘Engineering’ (p=0.666) students.

First-year students were asked to indicate their perception of how sea-level would change on the NSW coast over the next 20 years (Q14; Appendix A). The majority

(46%; n=36) thought that sea level would rise between 1-25 cm, 8% (n=6) thought sea level would rise more than 1 m and 6% (n=5) thought that sea levels would not

change, or would fall (Figure 4.13a). Figure 4.13b shows the difference in perceptions by students who had studied sea level rise at high school and those who had not, and

Figure 4.13c shows differences in first-year student perception between area of university study.

Chi-square tests of independence were conducted to test if there were any significant relationships between first-year students perceptions of sea level change, based on their high school experience (Table 4.10), or area of university study (Table 4.11). No significant relationships were found.

a) 50

Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent 0 Fall 1-25 cm 25-50 cm 50-100 cm >1 m Won’t change

b) 60

50 Yes

40 No

Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent 0 Fall 1-25 cm 25-50 cm 50-100 cm >1 m Won’t change

c) 60

50 Engineering

40 Science

30 Non science

10 Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent 0 Fall 1-25 cm 25-50 cm 50-100 cm >1 m Won’t change Rise in NSW sea level

Figure 4.13. Student perceptions of the rate of sea level change over the next 20 years - values represent increases in sea level (i.e. rise) a) First-year student group (n=74); b) Previous study of SLR at high school (Yes=59; No=15); c) area of study (Science=29; Engineering=23; Non-science=22).

4.3.3 Severe coastal storms

The first-year UNSW Sydney students were then asked questions in relation to severe coastal storms (Q15-19; Appendix A), such as East Coast Low events, and were presented with the following statement:

‘In June 2016, the NSW coast experienced a major coastal

storm that lasted several days, with large waves over 6 metres,

strong winds of 100 km per hour and heavy rainfall. The weather

and wave conditions combined with a high tide and storm surge

to cause major damage along the NSW coast. The storm was

considered a 1-in-100-year event.’

Students were then asked to answer an open-ended question (Q.15; Appendix A) to describe what type of damage a storm like this would cause along the NSW coast.

The word cloud in Figure 4.14 conveys the various themes drawn from student responses.

Figure 4.14. Word cloud detailing first-year student perceptions of damage caused by a 1-in- 100-year major coastal storm.

Students were then asked to indicate how often they thought coastal storms, like the one described above, occur (Q.16; Appendix 1; Figure 4.15). Overall, the majority of students thought they occurred ‘once in 100 years’ (27% n=21), followed by ‘once every 20 years’ (21%; n=16). First-year student perceptions of present storm frequency between students who had studied severe coastal storms at school and those who had not is presented in Figure 4.15b, and perceptions of present storm frequency between areas of study is presented in Figure 4.15c.

a) 35

5 Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent 0 1 in 100 1 in 50 1 in 20 1 in 10 1 in 5 1 in 1 None of above b) 35

25 Yes 20 No

5 Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent 0 1 in 100 1 in 50 1 in 20 1 in 10 1 in 5 1 in 1 None of above c) 35

30 Engineering 25 Science Non-science 20

5 Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent 0 1 in 100 1 in 50 1 in 20 1 in 10 1 in 5 1 in 1 None of Storm frequency in years the above

Figure 4.15. First-year UNSW Sydney student perceptions of present frequency of severe coastal storms by: a) all the students who responded (n=78); b) students who had studied severe coastal storms at high school (blue, n=39) and those who had not (orange, n=33); c) student area of study Engineering (n=27), Science (n=28), Non-science (n=21).

100

First-year student perceptions of the future frequency and magnitude (Q.17, Q.18;

Appendix A) of similar storm events to the one described in Q.15 are shown in Table

4.8. Chi-square tests of independence were performed to see if any significant relationships existed between first-year students’ high school education about severe coastal storms (Table 4.10), their area of university study (Table 4.11), and their perceptions of the present frequency, and future magnitude and frequency of severe coastal storms. No relationships were identified.

Table 4.8. Student perceptions of future frequency and intensity of severe coastal storms by students who studied severe coastal storms at high school and those who did not (HS) and area of university study.

Future storm frequency Future storm intensity (damage) More Less Same Don’t More Less Same Don’t often often amount know amount know (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

Yes 29 2 8 7 30 0 11 4

HS HS No 30 1 2 7 20 0 11 9 study

Engineering 19 1 2 4 16 0 6 4

Science 22 1 4 3 21 0 6 3 study Area of Area Non- 19 1 3 9 16 0 8 7 science

Question 19 (Appendix A) presented first-year students with an image of Collaroy

Beach in Sydney’s Northern Beaches after the June 2016 East Coast Low coastal storm event (Figure 4.16). The first-year students were then asked, ‘Generally speaking, when damage from coastal storms shown in the image below occurs, who do you think should pay for the clean-up and repair?’. Students were only able to select one answer and the majority selected ‘insurance companies’ (40%; n=38) followed by ‘State Government’ and ‘Federal Government‘ (17% respectively; Figure

4.17).

101

Figure 4.16. Infrastructure damage at Collaroy Beach in Sydney resulting from erosion caused by the 3-7 June 2016 East Cost Low event. This image was presented in the student survey in relation to a question about financial responsibility of storm damage (Q19; Appendix A; Photo credit: P. Rae, 2016).

10 Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent

0 Insurance State govt. Federal govt. Owners of Local council No one companies damaged property

Financial responsibility

Figure 4.17. First-year student opinions of who should pay for damage caused by severe coastal storms such as shown in Figure 4.16.

102

4.3.4 Coastal inundation

The first-year UNSW Sydney students were presented with the photograph shown in Figure 4.18 with the corresponding explanatory information ‘This photograph is an example of coastal inundation (flooding of low-lying coastal areas) at Narrabeen on

Sydney’s Northern Beaches’. They were then asked to indicate what they thought were the main causes of coastal inundation (Q.20; Appendix A) and were able to select multiple answers as contributing factors (Figure 4.19). Approximately 78%

(n=61) selected ‘heavy rain’, 73% (n=57) selected ‘storm surges’, and 40% (n=32) indicated tidal influences (either ‘high tides’ or ‘king tides’) as being the main causes of coastal inundation (Figure 4.19a). Almost half (44%; n=34) indicated ‘sea level rise’ as a main contributing cause. Differences in first-year student perceptions of the main causes of coastal inundation between those who had studied coastal inundation at high school and those who had not are shown in Figure 4.19b, and differences between student area of study are shown in Figure 4.19c.

Figure 4.18. Image of a stand-up paddle boarder in Narrabeen, NSW, following flooding associated with the 3-7 June 2016 coastal storm (Photo: J. Grainger, 2016).

103

a) Over-population Overflowing estuaries Overdevelopment King tides High tides Sea level rise Overflowing drains

Storm surges Main causes of inundationof causes Main Heavy rain

0 20 40 60 80 100 b) Over-population Overflowing estuaries No Overdevelopment Yes King tides High tides Sea level rise Overflowing drains

Storm surges Main causes of inundationof causes Main Heavy rain

0 20 40 60 80 100

c) Over-population Overflowing estuaries Non-science Overdevelopment Science King tides Engineering High tides Sea level rise Overflowing drains

Storm surges Main causes of inundationof causes Main Heavy rain

0 20 40 60 80 100 Respondent percentage (%)

Figure 4.19. First-year UNSW Sydney student perceptions of the main causes of coastal inundation by: a) first-year student group (n=78); b) students who had studied coastal inundation at high school (blue n=40) and those who had not (orange, n=30); c) student area of study Engineering (n=27), Science (n=28), Non-science (n=21).

104

The majority of students (~80%; n=60) thought that the occurrence of inundation ‘will increase in the future’ (Table 4.9). Chi-square tests of independence were performed to identify any relationships between students’ previous high school study of coastal inundation, their area of university study, and their perceptions of the future frequency of coastal inundation (Tables 4.10, 4.11). No significant relationships were found.

Table 4.9. Student perceptions of future occurrence of coastal inundation by high school study of coastal inundation and area of study.

Future occurrence of coastal inundation Increase (%) Decrease (%) Stay the same (%)

Engineering (n=21) 81 0 19

Science (n=27) 78 3 19 study Area of Area Non-science (n=21) 81 5 14

Yes (n=39) 74 3 23

No (n=28) 82 0 18

HS HS study

4.3.5 Coastal erosion

The first-year UNSW Sydney students were provided with the following definition:

‘Coastal erosion refers to the natural removal of sand or sediments from a shoreline

(i.e. beach, estuary, lagoon etc.)’ and were then asked to indicate how much they agreed with a range of statements relating to the occurrence, rate and effect(s) of coastal erosion (Figure 4.20; Q.22; Appendix A). Approximately 75% (n=56) thought that coastal erosion was something they should be worried about, while 18% (n=13) thought it was only a problem for people who live on the beach. The majority (73%; n=63) of the first-year students agreed with the statement that instances of severe coastal erosion will increase in the future and 67% (n=58) thought coastal erosion would affect their future use of the coast (Figure 4.20).

105

Mann-Whitney U tests were performed to detect any statistically significant differences in medians between students who had studied coastal erosion at high school and those who had not and their answers to the various statements about the occurrence and impacts of coastal erosion (Figure 4.20). No significant differences were found (Table 4.10). Kruskal-Wallis H tests were performed to detect any statistically significant differences between students’ area of university study and their answers to the various statements about the occurrence and impacts of coastal erosion. No significant relationships were found (Table 4.11).

100% Strongly agree

Agree 80%

Somewhat agree 60% Neither agree or disagree

40% Somewhat

disagree Respondent percentage Respondent

Disagree

20%

Strongly disagree

0% Instances of In the future, Coastal erosion is Coastal erosion is severe coastal coastal erosion will only a problem for a natural process, erosion will affect the way that people who live on the coastline will increase in the I use the coast the beach recover naturally, future so we don’t need to worry about it

Figure 4.20. First-year UNSW Sydney student level of agreement to four statements relating to coastal erosion (Q22; Appendix A).

106

Table 4.10. Results of statistical tests between first-year UNSW Sydney students’ high school study and their understanding of various coastal hazards.

Chi-Square test result Relationship

Sea level Occurrence X2 (2, N = 96) = 2.252, p=0.324 No rise Rate of change X2 (5, N = 74) = 9.981, p=0.076 No Severe Present frequency X2 (6, N = 74) = 4.353, p=0.629 No coastal Future frequency X2 (3, N = 90) = 4.50, p=0.212 No storms Future intensity X2 (2, N = 89) = 3.477, p=0.176 No Coastal Future frequency X2 (2, N = 67) = 1.058, p=0.861 No inundation Mann-Whitney U test ‘Coastal erosion is a natural U = 405.5, p=0.101 No process; the coastline will always recover naturally so we don’t have to worry’ Coastal ‘Coastal erosion is only a U = 441.5, p=0.360 No erosion problem for people who live on the beach’ ‘Instances of severe coastal U = 628, p=0.103 No erosion will increase in the future’ ‘Coastal erosion will affect U = 653, p=0.370 No my future use of the coast’

Table 4.11. Results of statistical tests between first-year students’ area of study and their understanding of various coastal hazards.

Chi-Square test result Relationship

Sea level Occurrence X2 (4, N =94) = 7.495, p=0.112 No rise Rate of change X2 (10,N=74) = 9.862, p=0.453 No Severe Present frequency X2 (12, N=71)= 10.34, p=0.586 No coastal Future frequency X2 (6, N=88) = 3.427, p=0.754 No storms Future intensity X2 (4, N=87) = 2.622, p=0.623 No Coastal Future frequency X2 (2, N=69) = 1.020, p=0.907 No inundation Kruskal-Wallis H test results ‘Coastal erosion is a natural χ2(2) = 2.598, p=0.273 No process; the coastline will always recover naturally so we don’t have to worry’ ‘Coastal erosion is only a χ2(2) = 2.898, p=0.235 No Coastal problem for people who live erosion on the beach’ ‘Instances of severe coastal χ2(2) = 3.472, p=0.176 No erosion will increase in the future’ ‘Coastal erosion will affect χ2(2) = 1.408, p=0.495 No my future use of the coast’

107

4.4. Talking about coastal hazards

Section 4 of the first-year student survey focussed on questions relating to other sources of information, aside from high school, from which the first-year students had gained information about sea level rise, coastal erosion, and coastal inundation (Q.25,

26, 27; Appendix A). Students were able to select multiple answers with ‘news media’ being the most common, followed by ‘documentaries’ and ‘social media’ (Figure

4.21a). ‘Council’ or ‘government’ groups were selected by 15% (n=14) of the students as sources of information about sea level rise and by 22% (n=19) for information about erosion and coastal inundation. ‘Community groups’, ‘brochures’ and ‘other’ mediums were the least commonly identified sources (Figure 4.21a).

The first-year students were also asked to identify their preferred mediums for receiving information about sea level rise, coastal erosion, and coastal inundation in the future (Figure 4.21b; Q.28 Appendix A). Students were asked to select only one answer, with ‘national news’ being the most common response (34%; n=31), followed by ‘social media’ (26%; n=24) and ‘government publications’ (15%; n=14).

‘Documentaries’ were selected by only 7% (n=6) of respondents.

108

a) 80 SLR 70 Erosion 60 Inundation 50

10 Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent 0

Previous sources of information about coastal hazards b) 40

10 Respondent percentage (%) percentage Respondent 0

Preferred source of information about coastal hazards

Figure 4.21. Sources of information about coastal hazards: a) first-year students’ identified previous sources in addition to inforamtion gained at high school; b) first-year students identified preferred sources for future information.

109

Chapter 5. Discussion

Top photograph: Fairlight pool, in Sydney Harbour (Photo credit: Eyeintim, (2009); Bottom photograph: Fairlight pool, October 2018 during perigean tide inundation event (Photo credit: A Attard, 2018).

110

5.1 Introduction

Climate change literacy, encompassing climate change driven hazards, formed through high school and tertiary education is the basis of knowledge that future scientists, engineers, town planners and other professionals will use to form evidence- based decisions, develop mitigation strategies, and effectively communicate adaptation efforts related to climate change impacts to the public (McNeal et al., 2014;

Dyer and Andrews 2014; Gruber et al., 2017; Filho and Hemstock, 2019; Linow, 2019;

Irwin, 2020). Stronger engagement of students during their high school and university studies around the subject of climate change may lead to an increase in student interest, and better prepare our future professionals to handle and adapt to climate change and associated hazards (Hay et al., 2019; Linow, 2019). Therefore, addressing the effectiveness of formal education as a conduit for accurate climate change literacy is of vital importance (UNESCO, 2009; Dyer and Andrews, 2014;

McNeal et al., 2014; Brumann et al., 2019; Chopra et al., 2019; Filho and Hemstock,

2019; Gubler et al., 2019; Harker-Schuch and Watson; 2019; Hay et al., 2019).

It is generally accepted that people who have lower understanding of climate change, and the associated hazards and risks, will find it difficult to plan for its’ impacts and to understand why others should plan to adapt (Bird and Dominey-Howes, 2008; Meyer et al., 2014; CoastAdapt, 2017). The effects of climate change on coastal hazards has already begun to threaten the built and natural environment along the NSW coast

(Church et al., 2013; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018; Stammer et al., 2019), and these effects are predicted to increase over time (Church et al., 2013; 2016; Ji et al., 2015; Adapt NSW 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg, et al., 2018; IPCC 2018; Dowdy et al.,

2019; Hanslow et al., 2019; Stammer et al., 2019; Hague et al., 2020).

Furthermore, successful adaptation to climate change requires appropriate knowledge, skills, and behaviour change, all of which can be provided by various

111

forms of education (Chambers, 2009; UNESCO, 2009; Hess and Collins, 2018;

Chopra et al. 2019; Monroe et al., 2019; Irwin, 2020). While social norms, media influences, peer and family opinions and perspectives do play a role in shaping a students’ worldview and mental model (Stevenson et al., 2014; 2016; Boon, 2015;

Bostrom, 2017; Busch et al., 2019), studies have shown that polarization of school students’ perceptions of climate change, influenced by political and cultural worldview, decreased with an increase in understanding of the mechanisms behind climate change (Stevenson et al., 2014; Busch et al., 2019). This suggests that information presented to students during their education plays a significant role in their understanding and perceptions of climate risks later in life and assists in forming communities better prepared for adaptation to climate change. Education also provides a strong base of information through which new information will be filtered, based on the theory of mental modelling (Morgan et al., 2002; Helgeson et al., 2012;

Bostrom, 2017; Eakin et al., 2019).

While there are a number of recent international studies that investigate how university students perceive climate change (McNeal et al., 2014; Salehi et al., 2016;

Bakac, 2018; Linow, 2019; Hay et al., 2019), and some studies that measure climate literacy effects on risk perception of high school students (Buckeley, 2000; Gubler et al., 2019; Lee et al., 2020) and pre-service school teachers (Boon, 2015), there are no prior studies in Australia that specifically investigate how university students understand the effects of climate change on coastal hazards, and how their high school education or choice of university degree may influence, or reflect, their level of coastal hazard literacy (Hay et al., 2019). This thesis represents a pilot study to attempt to address this gap in knowledge by testing the understanding and perceptions of climate change related coastal hazards among first-year university students.

112

The thesis has focused on two fundamental research hypotheses presented in

Section 1.2:

1. H0: Prior high school study of coastal hazards has no effect on

first-year university student knowledge and awareness of coastal

hazards and perceptions of risks.

H1: Prior high school study of coastal hazards has an effect on

first-year university student knowledge and awareness of coastal

hazards and perceptions of risks.

2. H0: First-year student undergraduate degree area of study is not

linked to student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards

and perceptions of risks.

H1: First-year student choice of undergraduate degree area of

study is linked to student knowledge and awareness of coastal

hazards and perceptions of risks.

The two hypotheses will be explored in context of the primary aim of the thesis

(Section 1.2):

How well does the first-year undergraduate student community at UNSW Sydney understand coastal erosion, coastal inundation, sea level rise and severe coastal storms, and how climate change will affect the magnitude and frequency of these hazards?

The results regarding first-year student understanding of coastal hazards and drivers presented in Chapter 4 will now be placed in the context of existing scientific knowledge about the present and future magnitude and frequency of sea level rise and severe coastal storms, and the causes and future impacts of coastal erosion and coastal inundation on the NSW coast. Similarities and differences in knowledge and

113

awareness and perceptions of coastal hazards and associated risks of the first-year students will also be compared to the knowledge and awareness and perceptions of

General Coastal Users (GCUs), as presented in the MyCoast NSW Study (Attard et al., 2019) described in Section 1.1, in order to provide a comparison between different coastal communities in NSW. The outcomes will provide insight and guidance for education and communication initiatives regarding future adaptation to coastal hazards on the NSW coast, and improve NSW coastal communities’ knowledge and awareness and perceptions of coastal hazards and risks. In this study, the coastal hazards of erosion and inundation were considered in relation to their primary drivers; sea level rise and severe coastal storms.

5.1.1 Key findings

Overall, the results presented in Chapter 4 indicated that high school education of coastal hazards (coastal erosion and coastal inundation) and their drivers (sea level rise and severe coastal storms) did not appear to be a predictor of coastal hazard literacy of the first-year university student sample group (Table 4.10). The first alternative hypothesis, proposed in Section 1.2, outlined the expectation that if students had received education about coastal erosion, coastal inundation, severe coastal storms or sea level rise while at high school, they would have had a better understanding of these coastal hazards and drivers in relation to accepted science.

This understanding would then presumably translate to a more realistic perception of risk related to coastal hazards. The results of this research led to the ultimate acceptance of the first null hypothesis; prior high school study of coastal hazards has no effect on first-year university student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and perceptions of risks.

Additionally, the results showed that chosen area study of first-year students did not reflect first-year student understanding of coastal hazards (Table 4.11). The second

114

alternative hypothesis alluded to the expectation that students studying ‘Science’ or

‘Engineering’ degrees would have a better understanding of coastal hazards and risks, compared to students studying ‘Non-science’ degrees. The statistical analysis of the results found no relationships between first-year student area of study and understanding of coastal hazards and drivers, so the second null hypothesis was also accepted in part; first-year university student choice of undergraduate degree area of study is not linked to student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and risk perceptions. However, statistical analysis showed that area of study was found to reflect first-year student risk perceptions of coastal hazards, particularly in terms of personal risk.

Statistical analysis of the results provided definitive answers to the two research hypotheses, but there were also a number of findings which provided insights to the overall research aim of how first-year students, as a coastal community, understood coastal hazards and risks, providing further evidence and meaning to support the ultimate acceptance of both null hypotheses. Most notable was the discovery of four disconnects in high school education about coastal hazards, namely the disparate nature of coastal hazard topics studied at high school, the stage of high school in which these topics were studied, how high school study had influenced students’ confidence in their knowledge of coastal hazards in contrast to their demonstrated knowledge, and a disconnect between information gained through formal and informal sources of educational information. These results will be explored in more detail in the following sections, firstly through exploration of the disconnects relating to high school education, then a discussion of relationships between area of study and perceived risks of coastal hazards, followed by an in-depth exploration of how first- year students understood the concepts, magnitude and frequency of coastal hazards and associated risks.

115

5.2 High school education disconnects about coastal hazards and their drivers

Various studies have highlighted the importance of utilising personally relevant material and meaningful information as the most effective way of presenting environmental education and information about climate driven hazards (Meyer et al.,

2014; Dawson, 2015; Monroe et al., 2019). Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory

(Bronfenbrenner, 1979) further supports the importance of personally relevant material by highlighting the central role of the individual and their interactions between ecological systems, in relation to child development and learning (Boon, 2015).

Furthermore, the social constructivism paradigm presents the idea that knowledge is socially constructed and subject to human experience (Busch et al., 2019), and that the social and temporal setting of the presentation of information about climate change and coastal hazards will influence how this information is incorporated into their worldview (Busch et al., 2019). This further supports the need for personally relevant and meaningful information presented during formal education.

Personally relevant and meaningful information, in the NSW coastal context, can be summarised as follows: NSW presently experiences severe coastal erosion events as a result of coastal storms, and episodes of coastal inundation from extreme tidal events, which will soon be enhanced by sea level rise. These events generate damage to the NSW community in terms of significant economic cost to the taxpayer, loss of coastal access and amenity for various coastal users, impacts to the tourism sector and damage to residential properties (McInnes et al., 2016; ABC News, 2016;

2017; Harley et al., 2017; Ardeshiri et al., 2019; Attard et al., 2019; Dowdy et al., 2019;

Davies, 2020; Lepham et al., 2020; Short, 2020; Ware et al., 2020). Therefore, information about the relationship between the drivers of sea level rise and severe coastal storms, and how they cause and exacerbate the hazards of extreme erosion

116

and inundation events, is meaningful and relevant to all members of the NSW community to some degree.

The fact that severe coastal erosion events and instances of coastal inundation are predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency in the coming years due to climate change driven sea level rise and severe coastal storms (Siebentritt, 2016; Adapt

NSW, 2018; Dowdy et al., 2019), combined with predicted an increase in population along the NSW coast (Section 2.6.1), suggests that education on these topics is highly relevant to younger generations within the NSW community, who are represented in this study by present day first-year university students.

It may be argued that information about the relationships between sea level rise, severe coastal storms, coastal erosion and inundation is meaningful and relevant to

NSW students at present, and therefore worthy of inclusion in a well-rounded environmental education. However, the results of this study show that there is potential for four distinct disconnects in the surveyed first-year university students’ high school education of coastal hazards and drivers. These include: 1) education about the relationship between coastal hazards and their drivers; 2) junior and senior high school education; 3) first-year student confidence and demonstrated coastal knowledge of hazards and risks; and 4) formal education and other sources of information about coastal hazards. These disconnects offer an explanation as to why there were no significant relationships found between first-year student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and high school education on these topics and identify opportunities to enhance high school education of these topics.

5.2.1 Disconnect 1: Education about coastal hazards and their drivers

The results of the survey highlighted a clear disconnect between the first-year students’ high school education of the hazards coastal erosion and coastal

117

inundation, and their primary drivers, severe coastal storms, and sea level rise (Figure

4.3). Specifically, more first-year students indicated that they had learned about the hazard of coastal erosion at high school compared to the number of students who had learned about severe coastal storms, which is the primary driver of severe coastal erosion events. Additionally, a large proportion of students had studied sea level rise at high school, whereas a comparatively smaller number of students had learned about coastal inundation – the primary hazard of projected sea level rise.

This educational disconnect about the cause-and-effect notion between coastal hazards and drivers was further demonstrated through the range of student knowledge and awareness about the causes of coastal inundation (Figure 4.19) and the present and future occurrence and magnitude of severe coastal storms. The latter may be linked to skewed student perceptions of risk about coastal erosion (Figure 20) in terms of owning waterfront property (Figure 4.8) and their perceived future use of the NSW coast (Figure 4.10). These results demonstrate a gap in knowledge amongst the first-year students about the direct hazardous effects of sea level rise and severe coastal storms on the NSW coast (Glamore et al., 2015; Church et al., 2016; Dowdy et al., 2019; Watson, 2020), which can influence their risk perceptions of coastal hazards and ultimately lead to impeded community adaptation to the future effects of climate change driven coastal hazards (Bird and Dominey-Howes, 2008). The disconnect between student knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and their primary drivers, which represents a clear gap in knowledge, may be explained by a range of situational factors. However, in NSW the state prescribed curriculum is a common factor which links high school education. Therefore, the disconnect between coastal hazards and drivers in student knowledge and awareness may be explained

118

by the structure of the NSW high school curriculum, or possibly by the lack of resources available to educators to enable them to present the information effectively.

The NSW curriculum delineates compulsory Geography lessons from Kindergarten through to completion of the junior years of high school (Year 10). Through these compulsory classes, students progressively learn earth, environment and climate related skills and knowledge (Board of Studies, 2015; ACARA, 2016). However, the

NSW curriculum allows teachers to select content from a range of topics, in order to teach prescribed outcomes and skills. In addition to teaching core subject matter, teachers are encouraged to choose elective content based on the learning needs, goals and interests of the students (Board of Studies, 2015). However, teachers are expected to cover all of the core subject content, often leaving little room to explore elected topics such as climate driven coastal hazards in detail. This can result in topics of coastal processes and hazards not being covered in class, or not in any depth, based on teacher discretion. In addition to this, the complexity of climate change science and the vast affects it will have on our natural and built environment, make it a difficult topic to understand, let alone teach (Boon, 2015; Dawson, 2015). This has been postulated to lead to poor classroom instruction, which can lead to scientific misconceptions, or alternative conceptions, by students about climate science and related hazards and risks (Berkeley, 2000; Boon, 2015; Shealy et al., 2019).

The education disconnects between coastal erosion, coastal inundation and their primary drivers (severe coastal storms and sea level rise) as highlighted in the survey results, may be a result of an incomplete education about how these hazards and drivers are interconnected, due to the structure of the NSW curriculum which may leave teachers with little time to explore the coastal effects of climate change. While some teachers may touch upon sea level rise and coastal erosion, they may not highlight the link to severe coastal storms and coastal inundation, through a lack of

119

confidence in their knowledge, or lack of knowledge, of climate change subject matter

(Myers and Beringer, 2010; Filho et al., 2019). This lack of knowledge has been found to be particularly relevant to science teachers where knowledge is more factually specific (Oversby 2015; Filho and Hemstock, 2019). It is possible that teachers in

NSW may actively avoid teaching specific topics about climate change science if they do not feel confident in their knowledge, particularly if topics are not mandatory, such as the effects of climate change driven coastal hazards in a local context.

While some teachers may recognise the importance of climate change science, they may lack the necessary knowledge or confidence to present it accurately, and others may not see coastal hazards as an important topic at all, which will in turn influence the way in which these topics are taught. In order to foster behaviour change and adaptation preparedness for climate change, and the increase in magnitude and frequency of related hazards, it is important that teachers are able to impart useful and accurate knowledge in order to prepare their students to understand the implications and impacts of our changing climate (Dawson and Carson, 2013;

Dawson, 2015; Boon, 2015; 2016; 2018), and it is vital that the prescribed curriculum supports teachers to present accurate and understandable content in order to provide relevant and meaningful information to their students.

5.2.2 Disconnect 2: Junior and senior high school education.

The general disconnect in high school education of the intrinsic link between coastal hazards and their drivers may be further explained by the substantial reduction in the number of surveyed first-year students who had studied coastal hazards and drivers in their senior years of high school (HSC), compared to those who had studied these topics at any point in their high school education (Figure 4.3). In comparison to junior school (Years 7-10), senior school classes (Years 11-12) encourage students to study topics in depth, which may translate to greater focus on the interconnected nature of

120

coastal hazards, their drivers, and potential societal effects (Board of Studies, 2015;

NESA, 2019a). Additionally, the HSC curriculum sets out the units and topics to be covered in class, leaving little to the discretion of the teacher (NESA, 2019a).

However, in NSW the only compulsory course for students wanting to sit their Higher

School Certificate (HSC) is English, and students are able to select their other senior school subjects. Of the 76,732 students studying one or more HSC courses in NSW in 2018, only 1590 (2.1%) studied Earth and Environmental Science and 4504 (5.9%) studied Geography (NESA, 2019b). These subjects were the only two which explicitly covered coastal hazards and their drivers in some form as part of their core HSC curriculum, meaning not as an optional elective topic.

The low number of students who studied Earth and Environmental Science or

Geography in 2018 may reflect student interest in this area of study. However, it is possible that the comparatively small number of students enrolled in these subjects reflect the Australian Tertiary Admission Rank (ATAR) scaling system in place, which influences students’ university entrance scores based on their choice of HSC subjects

(UAC, 2020). Both Geography and Earth and Environmental Science were allocated a lower weighting in comparison to other HSC subjects in 2018, which may have influenced students’ choices when selecting their HSC subjects. This theory is supported by the findings of this study, which found no statistically significant relationships between first-year student area of study and senior year high school education of coastal hazards (Table 4.1). This means that ‘Science’ or ‘Engineering’ students were not statistically more likely to have studied the topics of sea level rise, severe coastal storms, coastal erosion, or coastal inundation as part of their senior year classes during high school, although it may be argued that those students now express an interest in the areas of science and engineering, some of who will go on

121

to study the causes, effects and engineering adaptation options of climate change driven coastal hazards (Filho and Hemstock, 2019; Busch et al., 2019).

5.2.3 Disconnect 3: First-year student confidence and demonstrated knowledge of coastal hazards and risks

Significant relationships were found between high school education about coastal erosion, coastal inundation, and severe coast storms, and first-year student confidence in their knowledge of these topics (Table 4.2). However, there was no evidence to suggest that the students who had previously studied any of the coastal hazards at high school did actually have a better understanding of these topics (Table

4.10), which suggests the existence of an ‘overconfidence bias’ (Table 2.2) in these students. This finding was further demonstrated through the range of first-year student answers regarding the rate and magnitude of sea level rise (Figure 4.13), the present occurrence of severe coastal storms (Figure 4.15), and how these two drivers influence the primary causes of coastal inundation (Figure 4.19) or the effects of coastal erosion (Figure 4.20) in comparison to accepted science.

The fact that there was a broad range of student awareness and knowledge of both the causes and effects of coastal erosion and coastal inundation, and that this knowledge often did not align with accepted science, suggests that misconceptions regarding the core concepts of coastal hazards and drivers exist within the first-year student group, irrelevant of students’ educational experience of these topics. As discussed previously, these misconceptions may have arisen from classroom instruction (Shealy et al., 2019), through incomplete education of the topics and inconsistent curriculum, or the fact that so many of the students did not receive education about coastal hazards and drivers during their senior years of high school

(Figure 4.3). Interestingly, more than half of the students felt that severe coastal storms and coastal inundation were not well presented to them during high school,

122

and approximately 35% felt that sea level rise and coastal erosion were not well presented (Figure 4.4a). This suggests that many of the surveyed students may have recognised a gap in their high school education about these coastal hazards. This was further supported by percentage of students who indicated that they would have liked more information at high school about sea level rise (71%), coastal inundation

(69%), severe coastal storms (68%) and coastal erosion (54%; Figure 4.5). Statistical tests found no relationship between prior high school study and the desire for more information about coastal hazards, which suggests that both students who had, as those who had not, studied these topics at high school felt that the focus given to climate change driven coastal hazards was not adequate.

Despite results showing that high school education about coastal hazards and drivers was not statistically related to first-year student knowledge and awareness of these topics, first-year students who had studied coastal erosion, coastal inundation and severe coastal storms in high school were more confident in their knowledge of these topics. This gap between confidence and actual knowledge highlights the difficulty of altering educationally embedded scientific misconceptions (Strike and Poser, 1992;

Bulkeley 2000; Busch et al., 2019; Shealy et al., 2019), and the importance of clear and accurate information presented to students during their formative years (Boon,

2009; 2015; Busch et al., 2019).

5.2.4 Disconnect 4: Formal education and other sources of information about coastal hazards

The first-year student group represents a generation that has grown up in a world where the issue of climate change has been increasingly accepted by the scientific community to the point of consensus, and has received more attention in the media, as part of their education, and within general society (Antilla, 2005; Hamilton, 2011;

Rick et al., 2011; Connell, 2015; Akerlof et al., 2016; Akerlof et al., 2017; Cormack,

123

2017; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; ABC Education, 2020; Kilvert, 2019; 2020; Nine

News 2020; The Guardian Australia, 2020). Previous studies have highlighted the important roles social norms outside of the classroom, media influences and peer opinions play on adolescent (Hestness et al., 2016; Stevenson et al., 2014; 2016;

Brusch et al., 2019) and university students’ (Myers and Beringer, 2010; Dyer and

Andrews, 2014; Hay et al., 2019; Yu et al., 2020) understanding and level of concern about climate change. In support of the findings of these studies, the results of this thesis show that many of the first-year student cohort received information about sea level rise, coastal erosion, and coastal inundation through news media (Figure 4.21), collectively more than those who had studied these hazards during high school

(Figure 4.3).

First-year student perceptions therefore may have been influenced by the sources of media information most commonly accessed (Figure 4.21; Hamilton, 2011), and subjected to various ‘framing effects’ (Table 2.2). ‘News media’ and ‘documentaries’ were the most common sources, which are often viewed as factual, reliable sources of information (Bråten et al., 2011). ‘Social media’ was also viewed as a primary alternate source of information by the first-year student group, which is rapidly becoming a primary source of information for younger generations (Jarman and

McClune, 2007; Reid and Norris, 2016; Höttecke and Allchin, 2020). For these reasons, it is plausible to consider that ‘news media’, ‘documentaries’ and ‘social media’ were utilised as sources of information about coastal hazards to some extent by the majority of first-year students, and possibly used as information gap-fills for the significant number of students who had not studied coastal hazards at high school

(Figure 4.3).

This is particularly relevant, as students are able to choose their own sources of information, and many can be unregulated in terms of factual accuracy (Jarman and

124

McClune, 2007; Reid and Norris, 2016). Additionally, Bråten et al. (2011) found that undergraduate students low in topic knowledge about climate change were more likely to trust less trustworthy sources, such as newspapers and commercial publications, and were less able to identify irrelevant material. In light of this, the results of this thesis suggest that the first-year students did not have a particularly good understanding of climate change driven coastal hazards in relation to the NSW coast, and many had received information from mass media sources, which may have been irrelevant or possibly inaccurate.

Media coverage presents multiple challenges to presenting clear, accurate and situationally relevant messages about climate change (Boykoff and Roberts, 2007) and coastal hazards (Meyer et al., 2014). In comparison to formal education that is prescribed by a syllabus, media sources are influenced by a range of factors including ratings, political affiliations and the demographic and geographical range of target audiences (Antilla, 2005; Boykoff and Roberts, 2007; Hamilton, 2011; Spence et al.,

2012). The results of this study demonstrate the lack of specific, targeted information, in that the first-year students perceived the rate of sea level rise on the NSW coast as mirroring the global mean sea level rise, which is not supported by accepted science of sea level rise on the NSW coast (Glamore et al., 2015; Watson, 2020). They also perceived a much lower occurrence rate of significant severe coastal storms on the

NSW coast compared to historical occurrences (Dowdy et al., 2019), possibly due to the small number that had occurred during the first-year students’ living memory and thus reported sporadically in news media.

Varying media representations of sea level rise and climate change may also illuminate possible reasons why a comparatively small, but significant, proportion of students did not think, or were unsure that, sea level rise was occurring on the NSW coast (Spence et al., 2012). As audiences are able to choose their source of media,

125

‘confirmation bias’, in which people seek out information which agrees with their political affiliation and worldviews, can play a role in perpetuating scientific misconceptions (Antilla, 2005; Boykoff and Roberts, 2007; Hamilton, 2011; Akerlof et al., 2016; Baybutt, 2017) through supporting mental models built on incorrect information which remain unchallenged (Spence et al., 2012; Bostrom, 2017), and in many cases reconfirmed (Hamilton, 2011). It is possible that students who did not subscribe to, or were unsure of, the occurrence of sea level rise on the NSW coast, had been subject to incorrect information, or information framed in a politically driven context (Table 2.2), presented through various media channels (Boykoff and Boykoff,

2004; Boykoff and Roberts, 2007), which would ultimately skew their perceptions of risk regarding related hazards such as coastal erosion and inundation on the NSW coast.

5.3 Area of first-year student study and risk perceptions

Although it was stated in Section 5.1 that first-year student choice of undergraduate degree was not representative of their knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and risks, significant statistical relationships were found between first-year student area of study and their: i) perceived risks of the effects of sea level rise on the NSW coast (Figure 4.12); and ii) personal risks of owning a property with open ocean beach frontage (Figure 4.9).

The results described in Chapter 4 show that while the majority of first-year students accepted that future coastal hazard events will increase in occurrence, many still indicated that they would purchase the ocean-front property. This may be due to

‘optimism bias’, whereby risk of a negative event is seen to be more prevalent to others compared to oneself.

126

There was a statistically significant relationship found between area of study and intent to purchase the house, with the ‘Non-science’ students more likely to purchase the ocean-front property on a high energy beach, with ‘Engineering’ students being less likely and ‘Science’ students the least likely to do so (Figure 4.9). Additionally, the ‘Non-science’ students had an overall lower perceived risk of regional impacts of sea level rise on the NSW coast when compared to the ‘Science’ and ‘Engineering’ students. The difference in risk perception between the three areas of study suggests a greater psychological distance to coastal hazards expressed by the ‘Non-science’ students (Lorenzoni and Pidgeon, 2006; Spence et al., 2012; Gubler et al., 2019).

While the ‘Non-science’ generally acknowledged that sea level rise was occurring, they appear to have judged personal risks of climate change driven coastal hazards to be lower than societal risks (Leiserowitz et al., 2010; Spence and Pidgeon, 2010;

Spence et al., 2012), as they were statistically more likely to indicate that they would purchase the ocean-front house and had lower levels of agreement to the statement that ‘sea level rise will affect the NSW coast’. This correlates with the lack of understanding of the regional effects of sea level rise from the first-year student community (Figure 4.12), which may have translated into the skewed perceptions of risk as expressed by the ‘Non-science’ students.

Common reasons that ‘Non-science’ students gave for indicating they would purchase the ocean-front property included ‘location’, ‘view’ and ‘coastal lifestyle’, with many also indicating that the ‘benefits outweigh the risks’. These common justifications may suggest that some of the ‘Non-science’ students were aware of the risks, but disregarded them due to the multiple perceived benefits of living in that location (Figure 4.8), or a belief that the risks were low enough to disregard. This finding supports Spence et al. (2012) in regard to psychological distancing of climate

127

change risks, and the lack of behaviour change despite acceptance of the occurrence of climate change.

Coincidentally, in July 2020, nine months after the first-year student survey was disseminated, the section of coastline at Wamberal Beach presented in Figure 4.7, depicting the hypothetical ocean-front house for purchase, was badly damaged during a significant East Coast Low event that caused considerable erosion to many of the houses along that stretch of coast. The fact that the very coastline presented to the students in the survey was damaged in a significant coastal hazard event, further supports the theory that many of the first-year students had not adequately assessed the risk of living on this high-energy coast, or perhaps were not concerned by the level of risk, possibly through psychological distancing (Leiserowitz et al., 2010; Spence and Pidgeon, 2010; Spence et al., 2012) and/or through an inaccurate understanding of the hazards and drivers in relation to the NSW coast (Liberman and Trope, 2008;

Attard et al., 2019).

5.4 First-year student awareness, knowledge and risk perceptions of coastal hazards

The results of this thesis show that the first-year students demonstrated a range of knowledge and awareness relating to the coastal hazards of erosion and inundation and their drivers, sea level rise and severe coastal storms. This was particularly evident in relation to how climate change was perceived to affect the magnitude and frequency of these hazards and drivers on the NSW coast in the future. The following section highlights key differences and gaps in knowledge within the surveyed first- year student community in regard to accepted science about these coastal hazards and also compares them with findings of the NSW General Coastal Users of the

MyCoast NSW study (Attard et al., 2019).

128

5.4.1 Sea level rise

While there is scientific consensus that global mean sea level will rise, the changes will vary across the globe with some areas experiencing significant rise in sea level and other areas experiencing a possible fall in relative sea level (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018). Local sea level changes can differ significantly by up to 30% or more from the global mean change (Krien et al., 2017; Idier et al., 2019), influencing long‐period tidal effects, and greatly increasing the frequency of extreme inundation events by a factor of 100 or more on the NSW coast (Church et al., 2013; 2016;

Glamore et al., 2015). New South Wales is predicted to experience a sea level rise between 0.22 m (0.14-0.29m; RCP2.6) to 0.27m (0.19-0.36m; RCP8.5) relative to the coastline by 2050 (Church et al., 2013; 2016; Glamore et al., 2015; Watson, 2020).

This differs from the global mean sea level rise for both the strong mitigation scenario

(RCP2.6), which shows SLR along the NSW coast as slightly lower than the global average, and for the unmitigated scenario (RCP8.5), which is slightly higher than the global average (Figure 2.1b; Glamore et al., 2015).

Despite global scientific consensus about the occurrence of sea level rise (IPCC,

2014; 2018; Glamore et al., 2015; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Watson, 2020), approximately 15% of both the first-year student group and the General Coastal Users group (Attard et al., 2019) indicated that they were either unsure, or did not think sea level rise was occurring on the NSW coast. This finding supports earlier Australian research of public perceptions of sea level rise and climate change (Ryan et al., 2011;

SGC Economics and Planning, 2013; Barnett et al., 2013) who found barriers to climate change adaptation centred around public resistance to accepted science, often through the inability to comprehend complex climate science and the relative risk of climate change impacts.

129

However, the fact that the same proportion of first-year students as NSW General

Coastal Users were unsure or did not think sea level rise was occurring is somewhat surprising, as presumably a greater proportion of the first-year student group would have received information about sea level rise at school compared to the General

Coastal Users group, who had a median age of 45, and they had grown up in a world where anthropogenic driven sea level rise was largely an accepted phenomenon. It could be assumed that the students would therefore have a better understanding of sea level rise occurrence than the General Coastal Users, but there was no statistically significant relationship found between high school study and first-year student perceptions of the occurrence of sea level rise, which suggests that a similar proportion of people from both survey groups were receiving inaccurate information from other sources, contributing to their opinions.

Results of both studies show that the majority of first-year students and the general coastal user groups had received information about sea level rise from news media, documentaries, and social media (Figure 4.21; Attard et al., 2019), which are known to be influenced by ratings, political affiliations and the target audiences (Antilla, 2005;

Boykoff and Roberts, 2007; Spence et al., 2012) and not necessarily scientific accuracy. This means that there is a significant proportion of people within these two communities who do not accept, or are unsure of, the occurrence of sea level rise, which could translate into poor adaptation or emergency preparation for sea level rise driven coastal hazards, such as erosion and coastal inundation.

The results of both the first-year student and GCU’s perceptions of the rate of change of sea level on the NSW coast are consistent with other Australian studies in terms of community disconnect and uncertainty of specific timescales and impacts of sea level rise (Figure 4.13; Barnett et al., 2013; SGC Economics and Planning, 2013; Attard et al., 2019). However, they do differ in that many of the first-year student cohort

130

predicted a greater rate of sea level rise over time (Figure 4.13) compared to the

GCUs, who predicted a slower rate of sea level rise, when compared to accepted science about sea level rise on the NSW coast (Church et al., 2013; Glamore et al.,

2015; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC 2018). Approximately half of the first-year students overestimated the rate of change on the NSW coast, which may suggest their understanding is based on global mean sea level rise projections, rather than sea level rise projections for the NSW coast. The implication is that the first-year students lack understanding of the effects of sea level rise specific to their nearest coastline. Previous studies have shown that effective climate change education focuses on personally relevant material with meaningful information (Meyer et al.,

2014; Monroe et al., 2019), and it could be argued that the global effect of sea level rise is meaningful, however information pertaining to regional effects would be significantly more personally relevant, and enhance psychological closeness of sea level rise, which is known to be a predictor of behavioural change and greater adaptation readiness (Lorenzoni and Pidgeon, 2006; Liberman and Trope, 2008;

Leiserowitz et al., 2010; Spence and Pigeon, 2010; Spence et al., 2012; Gubler et al.,

2019).

Psychological distancing of natural hazards can occur when people judge personal risks to be lower than societal risks (Leiserowitz et al., 2010; Spence and Pidgeon,

2010), which is aptly reflected in the results of both the first-year student and General

Coastal Users groups. However, although some of the respondents within both groups did not think sea level rise would impact them directly (Figure 4.12), it was generally felt that sea level rise would affect the way they use the NSW coast in the future (Figure 4.10; Attard et al., 2019). Similar to the results regarding the hypothetical purchase of an ocean-front property, it is possible that some of the first- year students harboured an ‘optimism bias’, in that while many thought sea level rise would affect the NSW coast, fewer thought it would impact them directly (Figure 4.12).

131

The complexity of sea level rise, as both a global phenomenon and a regional driver of coastal hazards, may enhance its psychological distance, as many people only have an abstract, high level comprehension of the topic (Liberman and Trope, 2008).

It has been suggested that a more detailed understanding of climate hazards, potentially gained through personally relevant education, would increase psychological closeness (Stevenson et al., 2014; Jones et al., 2017; Monroe et al.,

2019), which would translate into a more realistic perception of risk.

5.4.2 Severe coastal storms

First-year student perceptions of an overall increase in the future frequency and intensity of severe coastal storms in NSW (Figure 4.15) were similar to their perceptions of the rate and magnitude of sea level rise on the NSW coast, in that they were in line with scientifically accepted global projections (IPCC 2007; 2014; 2018;

Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Colberg et al., 2019), but were only partially consistent with present literature specifically relating to the future frequency and intensity of ECL events on the NSW coast (Dowdy et al., 2019). Hansen et al. (2016) found that on a global scale, anthropogenic climate change will affect an increase in occurrence and magnitude of coastal storms in some regions and a decrease in other regions. Dowdy et al. (2019) stated that the overall, future occurrence of ECL events on the NSW coast is likely to decrease. Other studies concur with the decrease in the number of

East Coast Low events, but predict an increase in future storm intensity (Hasson, et al., 2009; Grose et al., 2012; Steffan and Alexander, 2016). This suggests that while some students are receiving information on the topic, it is not regionally specific, or personally relevant. In this regard, the first-year student results mirrored the perceptions of the General Coastal Users group (Attard et al., 2019), which again suggests that both groups are receiving information from similar sources, most likely

132

from news media, documentaries, social media and, to an extent, lived experience

(Figure 4.21; Attard et al., 2019).

While it has been noted that future ECL storm intensity and duration is uncertain, in conjunction with sea level rise, the risk of ECL related coastal hazards such as storm surges, coastal inundation and coastal erosion will likely increase (Leitch and Inman,

2012; Steffan and Alexander, 2016; Dowdy et al., 2019). For this reason, it is necessary for NSW coastal communities to have a good understanding of the future occurrence and severity of severe coastal storms in order to adequately adapt to the changing climate and prepare for associated hazards. As demonstrated in Section

5.2, there are a number of clear disconnects in high school education relating to severe coastal storms, which could impede NSW communities’ perceptions of risk and lead to insufficient preparation and adaptation to the hazards in the future.

The first-year student group presented disparate perceptions of the present occurrence of severe coastal storms similar to the 2016 East Coast Low event (Figure

4.15) compared to the actual occurrence of severe coastal storms over the past 15 years (Table 2.4). This is notable as this time period makes up a large proportion of this groups’ living memory. Approximately one-quarter of the students thought that a storm similar to the June 2016 storm event would occur once every 100 years, which may indicate a misunderstanding of the meaning of the term ‘1-in-100-year storm’ which is often used in the media to describe natural hazards (Hannam, 2014; SBS

Nepali, 2019; Doyle et al., 2019; Clark et al., 2020). This misunderstanding of the commonly used terminology could have influenced the first-year students’ perceptions of present occurrence, projected future occurrence and subsequent risk surrounding the occurrence of severe coastal storms (Slovic, 2000; Barnett et al., 2013).

In contrast, the majority of NSW General Coastal Users in NSW perceived severe coastal storms to occur significantly more frequently, with fewer than 5% indicting

133

similar storm events occur once every 100 years (Attard et al., 2019). This may indicate a better understanding of the terminology among the General Coastal Users group, or could reflect a difference in median age and lived experience between the two survey groups. It is possible that the younger first-year student group, with a median age of 19, may only clearly remember the 2016 severe storm event from as part of their lived experience, while the GCU group, with a median age of 45-54, may have a more collective memory of significantly more occurrences, or time stories, of severe storm events (Fincher et al., 2014; Meyer et al., 2014; Lujala et al., 2015;

Baybutt, 2017; Wu 2020).

This difference in lived experience could influence the availability heuristics of the two groups (Table 2.2), in that the perceived frequency of severe coastal storms is attributed to the ease of recall, or ability to imagine, a severe coastal storm, which enhances the perceived frequency (Toft and Reynolds, 2016; Baybutt, 2017).

However, it does suggest that information about historical occurrence of severe coastal storms on the NSW coast was not clearly communicated to a large proportion of first-year students, which could have altered perceptions of relative future frequency and associated risks. As discussed in Section 5.2, there are a number of disconnects in high school education about coastal hazards and their drivers, and the first-year students’ largely inaccurate perceptions of severe coastal storms further supports this finding.

5.4.3 Coastal inundation

Most of the first-year students correctly attributed coastal inundation with large weather events, such as East Coast Lows (Figure 4.18; Leitch and Inman, 2012).

Although heavy rain is associated with ECL events and undoubtedly contributes to flood damage, it is flooding caused by seawater that defines episodes of coastal inundation during these events (Leitch and Inman 2012; Reghu et al., 2017), so it is

134

interesting to note that more students indicated ‘heavy rain’ as a contributing factor, compared to those who selected ‘storm surges’ (Figure 4.18). While the survey results did show that most of the first-year student group were aware that coastal inundation is flooding by seawater in some form (Leitch and Inman 2012; Haigh et al., 2014;

Reghu et al., 2017; Hague et al., 2020), less than half of the first-year students recognised the role of tidal events as a major contributing factor to coastal inundation.

This finding mirrors the perceptions of NSW General Coastal Users, in that while many recognised the role of severe coastal storms in driving coastal inundation, fewer than half indicated that tidal events were also a main cause inundation. This is in direct contrast with past occurrences of coastal inundation in NSW, as it is well documented that king tides (or perigean tides) presently cause frequent episodes of significant coastal inundation along the NSW coast, although these events tend to be less dramatic compared to inundation events associated with extreme weather events

(Watson and Frazer, 2009; Stubbs, 2014; Code and Tarasov, 2016; Idier et al., 2019;

Hague et al., 2020).

The disconnect in student knowledge and awareness about the main drivers of coastal inundation indicates a misconception about how sea level rise will affect extreme tidal events and cause coastal inundation, which could skew perceptions of the future risk of coastal inundation on the NSW coast. The former Australian Climate

Commission predicted in 2014 that in NSW, up to 62,500 residential buildings were at risk from inundation due to storm surges resulting from a 1-in-100-year storm event

(Steffan et al., 2014), and flooding events in Sydney have already become three times more frequent during the 20th century due to sea level rise (Church et al., 2006). This gap in first-year student knowledge about the causes of coastal inundation highlights the information disconnect in the students’ high school education about coastal inundation and its primary drivers, as discussed in section 5.2.1.

135

The majority of both the first-year student group and the NSW General Coastal Users thought that coastal inundation would increase in the future (Table 4.9; Attard et al.,

2019). These results are largely in line with accepted science, which states that occurrences of coastal inundation will increase in the future with changes to the magnitude of severe coastal storms and sea level rise, with the potential to have significant impacts on NSW coastal communities (Leitch and Inman, 2012; Callaghan and Power, 2014; Steffan et al., 2014; Glamore et al., 2015; Devlin et al., 2017; Dowdy et al., 2019; Idier et al., 2019; Hague et al., 2020). Therefore, there is a need for further education about coastal inundation, and the primary drivers of coastal inundation, so that NSW coastal communities can better prepare and adapt to this hazard. Formal education, such as high school, offers an avenue through which to educate a range of NSW coastal users, however the results of this study show that there are some significant disconnects in the way information about coastal hazards and drivers are presently taught and understood at high school.

5.4.4 Coastal erosion

As previously discussed in Section 5.2.1, there was a disconnect identified between high school education about coastal erosion and severe coastal storms (Figure 4.3), which is the primary driver behind large erosion events. The impacts of this disconnect are evident in the survey results, in that a clear majority of students indicated that erosion is something ‘we need to worry about’ (Figure 4.20), despite the fact that many of the students indicated that severe coastal storms occur relatively infrequently

(Figure 4.15). This may suggest that students had an understanding of the natural process of coastal erosion, however, did not make the connection between the occurrence of severe coastal storms and large erosion events, such as the erosion that took place at Collaroy/Narrabeen beach during the June 2016 ECL causing significant damage to coastal properties (Figure 1.1).

136

Numerous studies have stated that episodes of extreme coastal erosion events will increase on the NSW coast due to sea level rise, changes to the magnitude of severe coastal storms and various coastal development legacy issues (Abuodha and

Woodroffe, 2006; Anning et al. 2009; Leitch and Inman, 2012; SCCG, 2013;

Siebentritt, 2016; Adapt NSW, 2018; Dowdy et al., 2019; Short, 2020). The findings of the first-year student survey and the NSW General Coastal Users data align with accepted science, in that both groups indicated that episode of severe coastal erosion would increase (Figure 4.20) and would likely impact how they use the coast in the future (Figure 4.10; Attard et al., 2019).

Significant coastal erosion events, like the one that occurred on Collaroy/Narrabeen

Beach in 2016, and more recently on Wamberal Beach in July 2020, result in significant damage to residential property, public amenities and infrastructure

(Watson, 2001; Ranasinghe et al., 2007; Kirkpatrick, 2012; Steffan et al., 2014; Ware and Banhalmi-Zakar, 2017; Frohlich et al., 2019; Horton and Rajaratnam, 2019; Kelly et al., 2019; Pain and Pepper, 2019). Therefore, there is a need for coastal communities to prepare and adapt to coastal erosion, particularly in light of the projected impacts of climate change on the magnitude and frequency of future coastal storms, and sea level rise on the NSW coast.

As presented in this thesis, formal education through high school study has a role to play in preparing students for the impacts of climate change (Boon, 2009; Dawson and Carson 2013; Dawson 2015; Boon, 2018), and in NSW this includes personally relevant information about coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal storm driven coastal erosion and inundation, potentially through a place-based educational approach (Stevenson, 2008; McInerney et al., 2011). It is clear from the results regarding student perceptions of coastal erosion that the majority of the first-year sample student group had received information about coastal erosion at high school,

137

however this education had not provided the vital link between erosion and the primary driver of severe coastal erosion events. This lack of understanding about the causes of erosion may influence the way the student community perceives risks posed by coastal erosion, which could lead to poor planning and future adaptation to coastal hazards.

5.5 Study implications

It is generally accepted that the science, and sociological effects, of climate change must be included in formal education across multiple disciplines to prepare societies for the impact of climate change (Boon, 2009; 2018; Shepardson et al., 2012;

Dawson, 2015; Busch et al., 2019; Chopra et al., 2019; Riley and White, 2019), and this rationale has been incorporated into the NSW curriculum to an extent (Board of

Studies, 2015; NESA, 2019a; 2020). However, the results of this study have shown that the first-year sample group did not have an adequate understanding of the impacts of climate change to the NSW coastline in relation to sea level rise, changes to severe coastal storm occurrence, and episodes of severe coastal erosion or the main causes of coastal inundation. The findings also showed that there were no significant relationships between high school study of coastal hazards and first-year student knowledge and awareness of these topics. While that may suggest that the first-year students were receiving information about coastal hazards from alternate sources, it also highlights the lack of influence that high school education has had on these students’ knowledge and awareness of coastal hazard, as no relationships were found between prior high school study of coastal hazards and greater student awareness or knowledge. This suggests that high school study may have had no impact on first year student knowledge, and therefore little influence on their awareness of coastal hazards. This is in contrast to the findings of Ronan et al. (2001) who found that children who learn about natural hazards at school are more likely to

138

interact with and educate their parents, creating greater community awareness of these natural hazards.

Furthermore, the educational disconnects presented in Chapter 5.2 show that there are significant gaps in high school education regarding the interconnected nature of coastal hazards and their drivers. The implication here is that in order for high school students to fully understand the risks associated with coastal hazards, a better understanding of how climate change driven sea level rise and severe coastal storms drives coastal erosion and inundation is needed in their high school education.

Additionally, high school education about coastal hazards, taught as a broad concept within the topic of global climate change, could perpetuate and enhance psychological distancing of coastal hazards on a regional or local scale. This may lead to an inaccurate risk perception that these hazards will happen to someone else, somewhere else and possibly far into the future (Liberman and Trope, 2008;

Leiserowitz et al., 2010; Spence and Pidgeon, 2010). The results of this study show a clear information disconnect for a large proportion of the surveyed UNSW first-year students in relation to the present day and projected future regional occurence and personal impacts of sea level rise and severe coastal storms, and how these drivers will affect the hazards of coastal erosion and coastal inundation. For example, most students indicated that they thought sea level rise was occuring, however there was a lack of understanding regarding the rate of change on a regional scale, which arguably is more important information in terms of commuity preparedness to sea level rise and associated hazards (Measham et al., 2011; Leith and Inman, 2012;

Glamore et al., 2015; Serrao-Neumann et al., 2015; McInnes et al., 2016; Watson,

2020). Stevenson et al. (2014) suggested that a more detailed understanding of climate hazards would increase psychological closeness, which would translate into a more realistic perception of risk, which was further supported by Monroe et al.

139

(2019), who stressed the importance of personally relevant and meaningful information in environmental education.

The lack of understanding about regional impacts of coastal hazards and drivers, which has been argued as being personally relevant information for the first-year student sample group, may result in this younger generation of NSW coastal users being ill prepared for the implications of climate driven coastal hazards over the coming years, namely more frequent episodes of coastal inundation (Hague et al.,

2020; Coastal Risk Australia, 2020) and severe coastal erosion (Dowdy et al., 2019).

Futhermore, these inaccurate knowledge and awareness of accepted science can contribute to the formation of mental models through which any new information will be filtered and either rejected or interpreted incorrectly based on existing knowledge and awareness (Meyer et al., 2014; Bostrom, 2017; Eakin et al., 2019), which was demonstrated through the comparatively similar knowledge and awareness and perceptions of the General Coastal Users group (Attard et al., 2019). This rejection, or scepticism, of accepted science may influence the way in which any future information about climate change driven coastal hazards is filtered into these students’ worldview, which may reduce their climate change preparedness to coastal hazards (Ryan et al., 2011), through inaccurate perceptions of risk (Meyer et al.,

2014).

To be effective in terms of behaviour change, education about climate change and climate related hazards, requires a holistic and interdisciplinary approach that acknowledges the complexities of climate change, while covering the associated science, human and environmental impacts and incorporating lived experience.

(UNESCO, 2009; Filho and Hemstock, 2019; Busch et al., 2019; Riley and White,

2019). Therefore, there is a need to review how coastal hazards are taught in high school, to assess if there is a need for a refocussing of topics to consider personally

140

relevant and regional impacts of climate change, such as coastal hazards and associated risks. This is supported by various studies which suggest that climate change studies could be broadened and enhanced across the high school curriculum in order to encompass science, engineering solutions, and social impacts of climate change (Hestness et al., 2016; Chopra et al., 2019; Linlow, 2019), thereby enhancing the personal relevance of climate change education.

Furthermore, multiple studies describe the multifaceted role of universities in promoting climate change literacy through social avenues and community engagement events that are targeted to specific audiences and interests, which can lead to climate positive behaviour change. This is significantly more inclusive compared to simply providing information through traditional lectures and classes, which may exclude some students based on their chosen area of study (Dyer and

Andrews, 2014; Salehi et al., 2016; Gruber et al., 2017; Hess and Collings, 2018; Hay et al., 2019). This is further supported by the results of this study, which show that although a significant number of students presently gain information about coastal hazards via documentaries, they are more inclined to seek out information in the future through mediums that are more targeted to specific audiences and regions and can be consumed in shorter spaces of time, such as national news and social media.

These results support the findings of Meyer et al. (2014) and Monroe et al. (2019), who stressed the importance on personally relevant material presented in active and engaging ways, as a way to successfully educate people about environmental science and climate risk.

5.6 Study limitations

The area of study segmentation of the sample group was only partially reflective of the full first-year cohort surveyed at UNSW Sydney in 2019. Students studying

‘Science’ and ‘Engineering’ subjects were slightly overrepresented in the survey, and

141

‘Non-science’ students were slightly underrepresented in comparison to the entire cohort of first-year students (Figure 1.3). While this means that the sample was not an accurate representation of the first-year cohort of studying in this particular trimester in 2019, the sample group did provide an acceptable number of students within the three areas of study for comparison and analysis.

Additionally, it could be argued that the first-year sample group used for this survey was inherently biased, as it would only have been completed by students who had an interest in climate change. If this is the case, then it is a concern that so few of the first-year student group chose to take part in this survey. While this bias of preconceived interest could be perceived as a limitation, the study does illustrate clear gaps in knowledge and understanding of the sample group based on their high school education – despite the possibility that they did have a prior interest in the topic. For this reason, the possible bias was not considered to be a significant issue.

It should be noted that this sample group was relatively small, with only 125 first-year student responses used for analysis. However, as this study represents a first attempt, or pilot, this was also not considered a limitation, and the outcomes of this study provide a platform and motivation for future studies to draw upon.

There was also an assumption made that the first-year students had attended high school in New South Wales. While it cannot be said in all certainty that all domestic students had completed high school in New South Wales, it is highly probable as most domestic students at UNSW are from NSW. Regardless, the highlighted disconnects in student knowledge and awareness and gaps in knowledge are relevant to all high school curriculums in Australia, as they highlight opportunities for further improvement to enhance student understanding of climate change and the effects on the coast.

These improvements have the potential to ultimately translate into greater community

142

understanding about coastal hazards and risks leading to greater involvement in, and acceptance of coastal adaptation efforts.

143

Chapter 6. Conclusions

Top photograph: Coastal erosion damage at Wamberal, Central Coast NSW, in 1978 (Photo credit: Gosford City Library); Bottom photograph: Coastal erosion damage at Wamberal, Central Coast NSW, July 2020 (Photo credit: Toby Zerna).

144

There is governmental agreement in New South Wales that ongoing and future adaptation efforts will need to be made on the NSW coast in order to address climate change driven coastal hazards (Coastal Management Act, 2016). There is also acknowledgment that school education about climate change is of critical importance for successful adaptation measures and community preparedness of associated hazards (UNESCO, 2009; Meyers and Beringer, 2010; Boon, 2015; 2018; Dawson,

2015; Shepardson et al., 2017; Bucsh et al., 2019). Furthermore, the importance of socio-cultural factors surrounding education of coastal hazards under the theory of social constructivism highlights the importance of where and when an individual learns information about climate change, as this will determine how the information is incorporated into the individuals worldview (Wray-Lake et al., 2010; Stevenson et al.,

2014; 2016; Busch et al., 2019). However, the results of this thesis in relation to the high school education and knowledge and awareness of a sample of first-year university students in NSW have shown that this acknowledgement has not yet translated into effective education about the relationship between the causes and effects of climate change driven coastal hazards.

This thesis identified disparate student knowledge and awareness of coastal erosion, coastal inundation, sea level rise and severe coastal storms as impacted by climate change, compared to a previously surveyed sample of NSW General Coastal Users

(Attard et al., 2019) and accepted science. However, no relationships were found between first-year knowledge and awareness of coastal hazards and associated risks and their high school study of coastal hazards, or chosen area of study at university.

This suggests that prior high school education did not have impact the first-year student samples’ knowledge and awareness of climate change driven coastal hazards. Ultimately, the results led to the acceptance of both null hypotheses of this thesis:

145

i. H0: Prior high school study of coastal hazards has no

effect on first-year student knowledge and awareness of

coastal hazards and perceptions of risks.

ii. H0: First-year student undergraduate degree area of study

is not linked to student knowledge and awareness of

coastal hazards and perceptions of risks.

Additionally, this thesis identified disconnects between first-year student high school study of coastal hazards and their drivers, and study of these topics across both junior and senior years. Significant gaps in the first-year university students’ knowledge and awareness of the magnitude and frequency of sea level rise and severe coastal storms in a NSW context, as well as gaps in their understanding of the primary causes of coastal inundation and the effects of coastal erosion on the NSW coast, were also identified.

It is hoped that the results of this thesis will contribute to the existing knowledge base relating to climate change education, specifically regarding the role of high school education in student knowledge and awareness of climate change driven coastal hazards, namely sea level rise, severe coastal storms, coastal erosion, and coastal inundation. The findings of this thesis can potentially be used to provide an evidence- based impetus to improve future high school curriculums in relation to the regional and personal effects of climate change, such as coastal hazards, which may translate to better prepared coastal communities in the future. Previous studies have shown that children who learn about climate driven hazards at school are more likely to interact with, and educate their parents about these topics, which creates greater awareness of these natural hazards and can increase home-based preparedness to hazardous events (Ronan et al., 2001; Johnston et al., 2005; Bird and Dominey-

Howes, 2008). Students need knowledge to be able to understand and interpret the

146

world (Young, 2013). This extends to knowledge of climate change driven coastal hazards, which can be embedded more significantly within State educational curriculum. Without access to that knowledge, students will remain dependent upon those who have it later in life (Young, 2013).

Furthermore, a better prepared community may be less inclined to blame coastal councils for being ill-prepared for damage caused by climate change driven hazards, as happened in the aftermath of the June 2016 East Coast Low event at

Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach, the catalyst for this study. However, despite the well- publicised coastal erosion damage which occurred during this event, and more recently at Wamberal Beach in July 2020, a significant number of students indicated that they would still buy and live in property with ocean beach frontage, which suggests that perhaps even though these students may have been aware of the risks, they did not necessarily consider the risks to be too high, to negate the perceived benefits of living in such a location. While formal education may help to inform people about coastal hazards and drivers, it won’t necessarily reduce people’s risk/reward ratios.

6.1 Thesis recommendations

As mentioned previously, this thesis should be treated as a pilot study that provides a platform for future related studies to build upon. An obvious extension of this study would be to conduct a similar survey of first-year university students at a range of tertiary education institutions throughout NSW, Australia and internationally in order to increase the sample size and to capture geographic, and potentially cultural, differences amongst respondents. A longitudinal study could also be conducted at a particular tertiary education institution that would quantify the perceptions and understanding of successive first-year university students to assess if there is a change in student knowledge and awareness over time. This would correspond with

147

Generational Replacement Theory (Wray-Lake et al., 2010), which suggests that changes in adolescent attitudes are indicators of long-term social change, and may help to predict how society will change and adapt to future impacts of climate change based on the changing perceptions of the younger generations.

To explore the second hypothesis of the thesis further, it would be also useful to conduct a study that would survey students both at their first year and last year of university study, to assess the relative influence of student program or degree on their climate change and coastal hazard knowledge and awareness. This supports the suggestion of Hay et al. (2019), who assessed first-year student familiarity with climate change and sustainability concepts over the course of their first year of study at an Australian university, and recommended re-testing the student cohort later on in their university degree to assess how student familiarity changed.

Furthermore, Myers and Beringer (2010) found that students experience fundamental changes in worldview and identity during their undergraduate years. This suggests that changes to knowledge structures, attitudes and, ultimately, behaviour in relation to climate change driven coastal hazards may occur while students move through their formal studies. The results of this thesis could therefore be used as a benchmark for further study, to assess if there are changes in student knowledge and awareness and perceptions of coastal hazards and climate change over time.

Additionally, there is scope to build on this study through comparing the results of student perceptions of coastal education at high school, with the perceptions of high school teachers and an in-depth review of science and geography educational theory and practice, as well as curriculum theory. This would provide greater in-sight into how the structure and theory of education may shape the knowledge, awareness and risk perceptions of students, and in turn, the public.

148

References

ABC Education (2020) NASA, 'Climate change and the rising sea level' ABC News, accessed 12 September 2020

ABC News (2016) ‘NSW weather: Collaroy swimming pool collapses as giant waves hit beachfront houses’ ABC News, posted on 6 June 2016, accessed 28 August 2020 ABC News (2017) ‘Sydney storms: 12,000 insurance claims lodges from hailstorms, $31 million in damages’, ABC News, posted on Sun 19 Feb, accessed 29 August 2020 Abuodha, P.A. and Woodroffe, C.D. (2006) ‘International assessments of the vulnerability of the coastal zone to climate change, including an Australian perspective’, Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Heritage, September 2006, p75. ACARA (2016) Science f-10 Curriculum, The Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority, accessed 15 October 2020 (ACECRC) Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre (2008) ‘Position analysis: climate change, sea level rise and extreme events, impacts and adaptation issues’, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia, accessed 17 July 2020 Adapt NSW (2018) Adapt NSW, Understanding and adapting to climate change impacts in New South Wales NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, accessed 25 May 2020 Akerlof, K.L., Rowan, K.E., La Porte, T., Batten, B.K., Ernst, H. and Sklarew, D.M. (2016) ‘Risky business: engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation’ Environmental Science & Policy, 66: 314-323. Akerlof, K., Covi, M. and Rohring, E., (2017) Communicating sea level rise. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science Oxford University Press USA. DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.417 Anning, D., Dominey‐Howes, D. and Withycombe, G. (2009) ‘Valuing climate change impacts on Sydney beaches to inform coastal management decisions: a research outline’ Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, 20(4): 408-421. Antilla, L. (2005) ‘Climate of scepticism: US newspaper coverage of the science of climate change’, Global Environmental Change, 15(4): 338-352. Amineh, R.J. and Asl, H.D. (2015) Review of constructivism and social constructivism. Journal of Social Sciences, Literature and Languages, 1(1), pp.9-16.

149

Ardeshiri, A., Swait, J., Heagney, E.C. and Kovac, M., (2019) ‘Preserve or retreat? Willingness-to-pay for Coastline Protection in New South Wales’, accessed 12 August 2020 Attard, A., Brander, R.W., FitzGerald, T. (2019) ‘My Coast NSW, New South Wales community perceptions of coastal erosion and inundation’ UNSW Sydney, accessed on 07 July 2020 available Bakac, E. (2018) ‘Engineering faculty student’s perceptions on climate change’ Environment and Ecology Research, 6(4): 240-247. Barnard, P. L., Short, A. D., Harley, M. D., Splinter, K. D., Vitousek, S., Turner, I. L., and Heathfield, D. K. (2015) ‘Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation’ Nature Geoscience, 8(10): 801-807. Barnett, J., Waters, E., Pendergast, S., Puleston, A. (2013) ‘Barriers to adaptation to sea-level rise’ National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF), University of Melbourne. Barnett, J., Graham, S., Mortreux, C., Fincher, R., Waters, E. and Hurlimann, A., (2014) ‘A local coastal adaptation pathway’ Nature Climate Change, 4(12): 1103- 1108. Baybutt, P. (2017) ‘The validity of engineering judgment and expert opinion in hazard and risk analysis: The influence of cognitive biases’ Process Safety Progress, 37(2): 205-210. BBC News (2016) ‘Australian rescuers suspend search for storm missing’ BBC World News, accessed 10 October 2020 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia- 36442209 Bennett, A. (2016) ‘Sydney wild weather: Homes at risk as Collaroy, Narrabeen battered by storms’ The Daily Telegraph, accessed 20 August 2020 Bird, D. and Dominey-Howes, D. (2008) ‘Testing the use of ‘questionnaire survey instruments’ to investigate public perceptions of tsunami hazard and risk in Sydney, Australia’ Natural Hazards, 45: 99-122. Bird, D. (2009) ‘The use of questionnaires for acquiring information on public perception of natural hazards and risk mitigation – a review of current knowledge and practice’ Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9:1307-1325. Board of Studies (2015) ‘Geography K-10 Syllabus’ Board of Studies, teaching and educational standards NSW, NSW Government, accessed 28 August 2020

Bolsen, T., Palm, R. and Kingsland, J.T. (2019) ‘Counteracting climate science politicization with effective frames and imagery’ Science Communication, 41(2):147- 171. (BOM) Bureau of Meteorology (2016) What is an East Coast Low? The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Commonwealth Government Australia, accessed 3

150

September 2020 (BOM) Bureau of Meteorology (2019) Explainer: what is coastal inundation? Bureau of Meteorology, the Commonwealth Government Australia, accessed 6 September 2020 (BOM) Bureau of Meteorology (2020) Monday, 3 August 2020 - Monthly Climate Summary for New South Wales (July) Bureau of Meteorology, the Commonwealth Government Australia, accessed 20 September 2020 < http://www.bom.gov.au> Boon, H. (2009) ‘Climate change? When? Where?’ Australian Education Research, 36: 43–64. Boon, H.J., Millar, J., Lake, D., Cottrell, A. & King, D. (2012) Recovery from disaster: Resilience, adaptability and perceptions of climate change. Its effect on perceptions of climate change risk and on adaptive behaviours to prevent, prepare, and respond to future climate contingencies, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 467 pp. Boon, H. (2015) ‘Climate change ignorance: an unacceptable legacy’ Australian Education Research, 42: 405-427. Boon, H. (2016) ‘Pre-Service Teachers and Climate Change: A Stalemate?’ Australian Journal of Teacher Education, 41(4). Boon, H. (2018) ‘Modeling disaster resilience’. In Madu, C. N., and Kuei, C. (Eds.) Handbook of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management. World Scientific Publishing, New York, NY, USA, pp. 407-431. Borchers-Arriagada N., Bowman D.M.J.S., Palmer A.J. and Johnston F.H. (2020) ‘Climate change, wildfires, heatwaves and health impacts in Australia’. In: Akhtar R. (Ed.) Extreme Weather Events and Human Health. Springer, Cham, pp 99-116. Bostrom, A. (2017) ‘Mental models and risk perception related to climate science’ Oxford Research Encyclopaedia of Climate Science, Oxford University Press, UK, accessed 13 August 2020 Boykoff, M.T. and Boykoff, J.M. (2004) ‘Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press’ Global Environmental Change, 14(2): 125-136. Boykoff, M.T. and Roberts, J.T. (2007) ‘Media coverage of climate change: current trends, strengths, weaknesses’ Human Development Report 2007/2008 United Nations Development Report, accessed 1 September 2020 Bråten, I., Strømsø, H.I. and Salmerón, L. (2011) ‘Trust and mistrust when students read multiple information sources about climate change’ Learning and Instruction, 21(2):180-192. Bronfenbrenner, U. (1979) The ecology of human development: Experiments by nature and design. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Bronfenbrenner, U. and Crouter, A. C. (1983) ‘The evolution of environmental models in developmental research’. In: Munsen, P.H., (Ed.) Handbook of child psychology History, theory and methods Vol.1, pp. 357–414 New York: Wiley.

151

Brown, S., Barton, M., and Nicholls, R. (2016) ‘The influence of groyne fields and other hard defences on the shoreline configuration of the soft cliff coastlines’ Shore and Beach, 82(2): 1-48. Brumann, S., Ohl, U. and Schackert, C. (2019) ‘Researching climate change in their own backyard—inquiry-based learning as a promising approach for senior class students’. In: Leal Filho, W. and Hemstock, S. (Eds.) Climate Change and the Role of Education Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham pp 71-86.

Bryman, A. (2016) Social Research Methods, 5th ed. Oxford University Press London.

Buckley, R. (2008) ‘Misperceptions of climate change damage coastal tourism: case study of Byron Bay, Australia’, Tourism Review International, 12: 71-88. Buckley, P J., Pinnegar, JK., Painting, SJ., Terry, G., Chilvers, J., Lorenzoni, I., Gelcich, S. and Duarte, CM. (2017) ‘Ten thousand voices on marine climate change in Europe: different perceptions among demographic groups and nationalities’, Frontiers in Marine Science, 4: 206-223. Bulkeley, H. (2000) ‘Common knowledge? Public understanding of climate change in Newcastle, Australia’, Public Understanding of Science, 9(3): 313-333. Busch, K.C., Henderson, J.A., and Stevenson K.T. (2019) ‘Broadening epistemologies and methodologies in climate change education research’ Environmental Education Research, 25(6): 955-971.

Callaghan, J. and Power, S.B. (2014) ‘Major coastal flooding in south eastern Australia 1860–2012, associated deaths and weather systems’ Australian Meteorological Oceanography Journal, 64:183–213. Cavicchia, L., Pepler, A., Dowdy, A. and Walsh, K., (2019) ‘A physically based climatology of the occurrence and intensification of Australian East Coast Lows’ Journal of Climate, 32(10): 2823-2841. Chambers, D. (2009) ‘Sustainable development: the response from education. Australian country report’ Melbourne Graduate School of Education, Australia, accessed 19 August 2020 Chopra R., Joshi A., Nagarajan A., Fomproix N. and Shashidhara L.S. (2019) ‘Climate change education across the curriculum’. In: Leal Filho, W. and Hemstock, S. (Eds.) Climate change and the role of education. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham pp 53-69. Church, J.A., Hunter, J.R., McInnes, K.L. and White NJ. (2006) ‘Sea-level rise around the Australian coastline and the changing frequency of extreme sea-level events’ Australian Meteorological Magazine 55: 253–260. Church, J., White, N., Aarup, T., Wilson, W., Woodworth, P., Domingues, C., Hunter, J. and Lambeck K (2008) ‘Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future’ Sustainability Science, 3:9–22. Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., and Payne, A. J. (2013) ‘Sea level change’. In: Climate change 2013. The Physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the

152

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. Church, J., McInnes, K., Monselesan, D. and O’Grady, J. (2016) Sea-level rise and allowances for coastal councils around Australia – guidance material CSIRO Report 64, Canberra. Clark, G., Harris, C., Rose, A. and McNab, H. (2020) ‘Devastating storms force flood evacuations, cut power’ The Daily Telegraph accessed 28 August 2020 CoastAdapt (2017) Barriers to adapting to climate change, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, accessed on 15 July 2020 Coastal Management Act 2016 (NSW), accessed 27 August 2020, Coastal Risk Australia (2020) Coastal risk viewer, Frontier SI and NGIS Australia, accessed 06 September 2020 < https://coastalrisk.com.au/home> Code, B. and Tarasov, A. (2016) ‘NSW weather: Sydney homes evacuated as king tide combines with east coast low’ ABC News online, accessed 29 August 2020 Colberg, F., McInnes, K. L., O’Grady, J. and Hoeke, R. (2019) ‘Atmospheric circulation changes and their impact on extreme sea levels around Australia’ Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Science, 19: 1067-1086. Connell, T. (2015) ‘Wild weather hits Newcastle: Inside an East Coast Low’ Newcastle Herald, April 21 2015, accessed 1 July 2020 Cormack, L. (2017) ‘Rate of global sea level rise jumps 50 per cent in two decades’ The Sydney Morning Herald, accessed 1 September 2020 Cutter, S.L., Ash, K.D. and Emrich, C.T. (2014) ‘The geographies of community disaster resilience’ Global Environmental Change, 29: 65–77. Davies, A. (2020) ‘Wamberal Beach erosion: seawall would deliver no net benefit, study finds’ The Guardian Australia, accessed 28 September 2020 Dawson, V. and Carson, K. (2013) ‘Australian secondary school students' understanding of climate change’ Teaching Science, 59(3): 9-14. Dawson, V. (2015) ‘Western Australian high school students’ knowledge and awareness about the socioscientific issue of climate change’ International Journal of Science Education, 37(7): 1024-1043. (DPIE) Department of Planning Industry and Environment (2019) ‘DPIE Planning region population projections’ The NSW Government Australia, accessed 05 August 2020

153

(DCCEE) Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (2011) ‘Climate change risks to coastal buildings and infrastructure, a supplement to first pass national assessment’ Commonwealth Government of Australia, accessed 5 June 2020, Deloitte Access Economics (2016) ‘The economic cost of the social impact of natural disasters’ Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience and Safer Communities, accessed 23 May 2020 Devlin, A., Jay, D.A., Zaron, E.D., Talke, S.A., Pan, J., Lin, H. (2017) ‘Tidal variability related to sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean’ Journal of Geophysical Research, 122(11). Dowdy, A.J., Pepler, A., Di Luca, A., Cavicchia, L., Mills, G., Evans, J.P., Louis, S., McInnes, K.L. and Walsh, K. (2019) ‘Review of Australian east coast low pressure systems and associated extremes’ Climate Dynamics, 53(7-8): 4887-4910. Dyer., G, and Andrews., J. (2014) ‘Higher education’s role in adapting to a changing climate’ American College and University’ Presidents’ Climate Commitment, Boston, MA. accessed 18 August 2020 Doyle, E., McClure, J., Paton, D. and Johnston, D. (2014) ‘Uncertainty and decision making: Volcanic crisis scenarios’ International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 10(Part A): 75-101. Doyle, E., Johnston, D.M., Smith, R. and Paton, D. (2019) ‘Communicating model uncertainty for natural hazards: a qualitative systematic thematic review’ International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 33: 449-476. Eakin, H., Siqueiros-García, J.M., Hernandez, B., Shelton, R.E. and Bojórquez- Tapia, L.A. (2019) ‘Mental models, meta-narratives and solution pathways associated with socio-hydrological risk and response in Mexico City’ Frontiers in Sustainable Cities 1:4. Earl, C. (2020) ‘Against the tide: storm battered residents cling to beachfront homes on Australian east coast’ The Guardian Australia, accessed 01 September 2020 < https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/23/against-the-tide-storm- battered-wamberal-residents-cling-to-beachfront-homes> Eden, S. (1996) ‘Public participation in environmental policy: considering scientific, counter-scientific and non-scientific contributions’, Public Understanding of Science, 5: 183-204. Eiser, J.R., Bostrom, A., Burton, I., Johnston, D.M., McClure, J., Paton, D., Van Der Pligt, J. and White, M.P. (2012) ‘Risk interpretation and action: A conceptual framework for responses to natural hazards’ International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 1: 5-16. Enders, J. (2001) ‘Measuring community awareness and preparedness for emergencies’ Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 16: 52–58. (ESCCI) Eastern Seaboard Climate Change Initiative (2016) ‘East Coast Lows research program synthesis for NRM stakeholders’ AdaptNSW, NSW Office of

154

Environment and Heritage, accessed 24 October 2019 Eyeintim (2009) ‘Sydney – Fairlight Beach Pool’ 25 November 2009, online image, Flikr accessed 11 October 2020 Fairfull, S., Attwood, S., Diver, L. and Bronger, K. (2014) ‘Surveying the NSW community’s views on the marine estate – values, benefits, threats and opportunities’, 23rd Annual NSW Coastal Conference, East Coast Conferences, Shoalhaven, accessed 14 June 2020 Filho, W.L., Mifsud, M., Molthan-Hill, P., Nahy, G., Avila, L.V., and Alvia, A.l. (2019) ‘Climate change scepticism at universities, a global study’ Sustainability 11:298. Filho, W. and Hemstock, S.L. (2019) ‘Climate change education: An overview of international trends and the need for action’. In: Leal Filho, W. and Hemstock, S. (Eds.) Climate Change and the Role of Education. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. pp 1-17. Fincher, R., Barnett, J., Graham, S., and Hurlimann, A. (2014) ‘Time stories: Making sense of futures in anticipation of sea-level rise’ Geoforum 56: 201-210. Frohlich, M.F., Smith, T.F., Jacobson, C., Fidelman, P., Carter, R.B. and Baldwin, C. (2019) ‘Towards adaptive coastal management: Lessons from a “legal storm” in Byron Shire, Australia’ Ocean & Coastal Management, 179: 104909. Glamore, W., Rahman, P., Cox, R., Church, J., and Monselesan, D. (2015) ‘Sea level rise, science and synthesis for NSW, NSW Office of Environment and Heritages Coastal Processes and Response Node - technical report’ NSW Government, accessed 10 April 2020 Graham, S., Barnett, J., Fincher, R., Hurlimann, A., Mortreux, C. and Waters, E. (2013) ‘The social values at risk from sea-level rise’ Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 41:45-52. Grainger, J. (2016) ‘The only way to get around in Malcolm street North Narrabeen’ Adelaidenow.com, accessed 21 July 2019 Grant, B., Baldwin, C., Lieske, S. and Martin, K. (2015) ‘Using participatory visual methods for information exchange about climate risk in canal estate communities’ Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs, 7(1): 23-37. Grønhøj, A. and Thøgersen, J. (2009) ‘Like father, like son? Intergenerational transmission of values, attitudes, and behaviours in the environmental domain’ Journal of Environmental Psychology 29(4): 414-421. Grønhøj, A. and Thøgersen, J. (2012) ‘Action speaks louder than words: the effect of personal attitudes and family norms on adolescents’ pro-environmental behaviour’ Journal of Economic Psychology, 33(1): 292-302.

155

Grose, M., Pook, M., McIntosh, P., Risbey, J., and Bindoff, N. (2012) ‘The simulation of cutoff lows in a regional climate model: reliability and future trends’ Climate Dynamics, 39: 445- 459. Gruber, JS., Rhoades, JL., Simpson, M., Stack, L., Yetka, L., and Wood, R. (2017) ‘Enhancing climate change adaptation: strategies for community engagement and university-community partnerships’. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 7:10–24. Gubler, M., Brügger, A., and Eyer, M. (2019) ‘Adolescents’ perceptions of the psychological distance to climate change, its relevance for building concern about it, and the potential for education’. In: Leal Filho, W. and Hemstock, S. (Eds.) Climate Change and the Role of Education. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham, pp129-147. Hague, B., McGregor, S., Murphy, B., Reef, R., and Jones, D. (2020) ‘Sea-level rise driving increasingly predictable coastal inundation in Sydney, Australia’, Earths Future, 8(9). accessed 27 August 2020 Haigh, I. D., Wijeratne, E. M. S., MacPherson, L., Pattiaratchi, C., Mason, M., Crompton, R., and George, S. (2014) ‘Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level’ Climate Dynamics 42: 121–138. Hannam, P. (2014) ’Once every 100 years’: what made the Sydney storm so ferocious’ The Sydney Morning Herald accessed 28 August 2020 Hannam, P. and Kembrey, M. (2016) ‘Sydney storm: lessons from a tempest’, Sydney Morning Herald, accessed 2 April 2020 Hansen, J., Sato, M., Hearty, P., Ruedy, R., Kelley, M., Masson-Delmotte, V. and Velicogna, I. (2016) ‘Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2C global warming could be dangerous’ Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16: 3761-3812. Hanslow, D.J., Fitzhenry, M.G., Power, H.E., Kinsela, M.A. and Hughes, M.G., (2019) ‘Rising tides: Tidal inundation in south East Australian estuaries’ Australasian Coasts and Ports 2019 Conference: Future directions from 40 [degrees] S and beyond, Hobart, 10-13 September 2019 (p. 520). Engineers Australia. Hanson-Easey, S., Bi, P., Hansen, A., Williams, S., Nitschke, M., Saniotis, A., Zhang, Y. and Hodgetts, K. (2013) ‘Public understanding of climate change and adaptation in South Australia’ National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 89 pp.

Harker-Schuch I., Watson M. (2019) ‘Developing a climate literacy framework for upper secondary students’. In: Leal Filho, W. and Hemstock, S. (Eds.) Climate Change and the Role of Education. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham pp 291-381. Harley, M.D.; Turner, I.L.; Splinter, K.D., Phillips, M.S. and Simmons, J.A. (2016) ‘Beach response to Australian East Coast Lows: a comparison between the 2007

156

and 2015 events, Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach’ In: Vila-Concejo, A.; Bruce, E.; Kennedy, D.M., and McCarroll, R.J. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia) Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue 75: 388-392. Harley, M.D., Turner, I.L., Kinsela, M.A., Middleton, J.H., Mumford, P.J., Splinter, K.D., Phillips, M.S., Simmons, J.A., Hanslow, D.J. and Short, A.D. (2017) ‘Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anomalous extratropical storm wave direction’ Nature; Scientific Reports, 7(1): 6033. Hamilton, L.C. (2011) ‘Education, politics and opinions about climate change evidence for interaction effects’ Climatic Change 104: 231-242. Hanushek, E.A. and Rivkin, S.G. (2006) Teacher quality. Handbook of the Economics of Education, 2, pp.1051-1078.

Harris, D.N. and Sass, T.R. (2011) Teacher training, teacher quality and student achievement. Journal of public economics, 95(7-8), pp.798-812. Hasson, A., Mills, G., Timbal, B. and Walsh, K. (2009) ‘Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather events over south-eastern Australia’ Climate Research, 39: 159-172. Hay, R., Eagle, L., Saleem, M.A., Vandommele, L. and Li, S. (2019) ‘Student perceptions and trust of sustainability information’ International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, 20(4): 726-746. Helman, P., Metusela, C., Thomella, F. and Tomlinson, R. (2007) ‘Storm tides along east-coast Australia’, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, accessed 1 August 2020 Helman, P., Thomalla, F., Metusela, C. and Tomlinson, R. (2010) ‘Storm tides, coastal erosion and Inundation’, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, accessed 17 August 2020

Hendra, R. and Hill, A. (2019) ‘Rethinking response rates: New evidence of little relationship between survey response rates and nonresponse bias’ Evaluation Review, 43(5): 307-330. Helgeson, J., van der Linden, S., and Chabay, I. (2012) ‘The role of knowledge, learning and mental models in perceptions of climate change related risks’. In: E.J. Wals and P.B. Corcoran (Eds.) Learning for Sustainability in Times of Accelerating Change, Wageningen Academic Publishers, Wageningen, The Netherlands, pp. 329-346. Hess, D.J. and Collins B.M. (2018) ‘Climate change and higher education: assessing factors that affect curriculum requirements’ Journal of Cleaner Production 170:1451–1458. Hestness, E., McGinnis, J. R., and W. Breslyn. (2016) ‘Examining the relationship between middle school students’ sociocultural participation and their Ideas about climate change’ Environmental Education Research, 25(6): 912-924. Hine, D.W., Phillips, W.J., Reser, J.P., Cooksey, R.W., Marks, A.D.G., Nunn, P.D., Watt, S.E. and Ellul, M.C. (2013) 'Enhancing climate change communication:

157

strategies for profiling and targeting Australian interpretive communities', National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility Gold Coast, Queensland, accessed on 10 March 2020 https://www.nccarf.edu.au/content/enhancing-climate-change- communication-strategies-profiling-and-targeting-australian

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., D. Jacob, M. Taylor, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K.L. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, A. Payne, S.I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, and G. Zhou, (2018) ‘Impacts of 1.5ºC Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems’ in: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (Eds.) Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P.R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J.B.R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M.I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., and Waterfield, T. In Press. Höttecke, D. and Allchin, D. (2020) ‘Reconceptualizing nature‐of‐science education in the age of social media’ Science Education, 104: 641-666. Houghton, J. (2016) ‘Sydney storm: massive 2002 protest stopped sea wall being built, but at what cost?’, The Daily Telegraph, 9 June 2016, accessed 4 September, 2020 Horton, P. and Rajaratnam, N. (2019) ‘Cost benefit analysis in coastal management- getting it right and getting it wrong’. In Australasian Coasts and Ports 2019 Conference: Future directions from 40 [degrees] S and beyond, Hobart, 10-13 September 2019 Engineers Australia, p.603. Hyndman, D. and Hyndman, D. (2015) Natural hazards and disasters, 5th Edition, Cengage Learning, Boston, USA. Idier, D., Bertin, X., Thompson, P. and Pickering, M. (2019) ‘Interactions between mean sea level, tide, surge, waves and flooding: mechanisms and contributions to sea level variations at the coast’ Surveys in Geophysics 40: 1603–1630. Irwin, R. (2020) ‘Climate change and education’ Educational Philosophy and Theory 52(5): 492-507.

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Eds.) Solomon, S et al. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USA.

IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: Synthesis report Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Eds) Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

IPCC (2018) Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre‐industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the

158

threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (Eds.) V. Masson‐Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma‐Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Watereld. Accessed 15 April 2020 Jarman, R. and McClune, B. (2007) ‘Developing scientific literacy: Using news media in the classroom’ Maidenhead, UK: Open University Press. Jarrett, L. and Takacs, G. (2020) ‘Secondary students’ ideas about scientific concepts underlying climate change’ Environmental Education Research, 26(3): 400-420. Ji, F., Evans, J.P., Argueso, D., Fita, L., and Di Luca, A. (2015) ‘Using large-scale diagnostic quantities to investigate change in East Coast Lows’ Climate Dynamics 45(9): 2443-2453. Johnston, D., Paton, D., Crawford, GL., Ronan, K., Houghton, B. and Burgelt, P. (2005) ‘Measuring tsunami preparedness in coastal Washington, United States’. Natural Hazards 35:173–184. Jones, C., Hine, D.W. and Marks, A.D., (2017) ‘The future is now: reducing psychological distance to increase public engagement with climate change’ Risk Analysis 37(2): 331-341. Kahan, D. M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L. L., Braman, D., and Mandel. G. (2012) ‘The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks’ Nature Climate Change, 2(10): 732. Kelly, A.H., Brown, J. and Strickland, A. (2019) ‘Local government and coastal damage: confusion, potential and dreams’ Journal of Property, Planning and Environmental Law 12(1): 1-18. Kilvert, N. (2019) ‘Sea level rise began accelerating in the 1960s, researchers find’ ABC News Science, accessed 10 September < https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-08-06/sea-level-rise-accelerated- sixties/11373830> Kilvert, N. (2020) ‘Sea level rise will see 40pc of Australia’s beaches lost, predicts new study’ ABC News Science, accessed 10 September 2020 Kinsela, M.A. and Hanslow, D.J. (2013) ‘Coastal erosion risk assessment in New South Wales: limitations and potential future directions’, 22nd Annual NSW Coastal Conference, East Coast Conference, accessed 14 July 2019 Kirkpatrick, S. (2012) ‘The economic value of natural and build coastal assets Pt. 2: Built coastal assets‘, ACCARNSI Discussion paper – Node1 Coastal Settlements. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Settlements and Infrastructure, Queensland, Australia. Knowledge@Wharton (2014) The faulty ‘mental models’ that lead to poor disaster preparation’ Knowledge @Wharton online interview with Professor Robert Meyers,

159

University of Pennsylvania, accessed 1 September 2020 Kreller, A.M. (2020) ‘Transforming fair decision-making about sea-level rise in cities: the values and beliefs of residents in Botany Bay, Australia’ Environmental Values 2020. Krien, Y., Dudon, B., Roger, J., Arnaud, G. and Zahibo, N. (2017) ‘Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique’ Natural Hazard Earth Systems 17: 1559–1571. Lapham, J., Millinton, B. and Scully, A. (2020) ‘Central Coast and Newcastle beach erosion worsens as NSW coastal communities hit by massive swell’ ABC News Central Coast, accessed 07 July 2020 Larochelle, M., Bednarz, N., Garrison, J. and Garrison, J.W. eds., (1998) Constructivism and education. Cambridge University Press. Lee, K., Gjersoe, N., O’Neill, S. and Barnett, J. (2020) ‘Youth perceptions of climate change: A narrative synthesis’ WIRES Climate Change, 11(3): e641. Leitch, A. M. and Inman, M. (2012) ‘Supporting local government to communicate coastal inundation’. Resource kit prepared for the Sydney Coastal Councils Group Inc. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Brisbane, Australia. Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C. and Smith, N. (2010) ‘Climate change in the American mind: Americans’ global warming beliefs and attitudes in January 2010’ Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. Levy, M., Benny-Morrison, A. and Dumas, D. (2016) ‘Sydney storm: erosion swallows 50 metres of Collaroy, Narrabeen beaches’ The Sydney Morning Herald accessed 15 August 2020 https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sydney- storm-erosion-swallows-50-metres-of-collaroy-narrabeen-beaches-20160607- gpd2ob.html Liberman, N. and Trope, Y. (2008) ‘The psychology of transcending the here and now’ Science 322(5905): 1201–1205. Linow, S. (2019) ‘Integrating climate change competencies into mechanical engineering education’ In: Leal Filho, W. and Hemstock, S. (Eds.) Climate Change and the Role of Education Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham pp35-51. Lord, D. and McDonald, T. (2016) ‘Managing Wamberal Beach - the forgotten twin’ NSW Coastal Conference, Coffs Harbour November 9-11, 2016, accessed 01 November, 2019 Lorenzoni, I. and Pidgeon, N. (2006) ‘Public views on climate change: European and USA perspectives’ Climatic Change 77: 73–95. Lorenzoni, I., Nicolson-Cole, S. and Whitmarsh, L. (2007) ‘Barriers perceived to engaging with climate change among the UK public and their policy implications’, Global Environmental Change, 17(3): 445-459.

160

Luís, S., Pinho, L., Lima, M.L., Roseta-Palma, C., Cardoso Martins, F. and Betâmio de Almeida, A.B. (2016) ‘Is it all about awareness? The normalization of coastal risk’, Journal of Risk Research, 19(6): 810-826. Lujala, P., Lein, H. and Rød, J.K., (2015) ‘Climate change, natural hazards, and risk perception: the role of proximity and personal experience’ Local Environment 20(4): 489-509. Lyster, R. (2020) ‘Climate disaster law: Does it hold the key to dealing with bushfires?’ LSJ: Law Society of NSW Journal, 64: 68. McBride, A. and Sigler, G. (2019) ‘Survey & Questionnaire Design’ STAT Center of Excellence Report 07, STAT Center of Excellence, Ohio,USA.

McDonald, R.I., Chai, H.Y. and Newell, B.R. (2015) ‘Personal experience and the ‘psychological distance’ of climate change: An integrative review’ Journal of Environmental Psychology, 44: 109-118. McGuirk, P. M. and O’Neill, P. (2005) ‘Using Questionnaires in Qualitative Human Geography’ In: Hay, I. (Ed) Qualitative Research Methods in Human Geography Oxford University Press, Australia. McInerney, P., Smyth, J. and Down, B. (2011) ‘Coming to a place near you?’The politics and possibilities of a critical pedagogy of place-based education. Asia-Pacific Journal of Teacher Education, 39(1), pp.3-16. McInnes, K. L., White, C. J., Haigh, I. D., Hemer, M. A., Hoeke, R. K., Holbrook, N. J., Kiem, A. S., Oliver, E. C. J., Ranasinghe, R., Walsh, K. J. E., Westra, S., and Cox, R. (2016) ‘Natural hazards in Australia: Sea level and coastal extremes’ Climatic Change: 1–5. McNeal, K., Spry, J. Mitra, R., and Tipton, J. (2014) ‘Measuring student engagement, knowledge and perceptions of climate change in an introductory environmental geology course’ Journal of Geoscience Education 62(4): 655. Measham, T.G., Preston, B. L., Smith, T.F., Brooke, C., Gorddard, R., Withycombe, G. and Morrison, C. (2011) ‘Adapting to climate change through local municipal planning: barriers and challenges’ Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 16(8): 889-909. Meyer, R. (2010) ‘Why we fail to learn from disasters’. In: Michel-Kerjan, E. and Slovic, P. (Eds.) The irrational economist: making decisions in a dangerous world. Public Affairs Press USA. Meyer, R., Baker, J., Broad, K., Czajkowski, J. and Orlove, B. (2014) ‘The dynamics of hurricane risk perception, real-time evidence from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season’ Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(9): 1389-1404. Monroe, M.C., Plate, R.R., Oxarart, A., Bowers, A. and Chaves, W.A., (2019) ‘Identifying effective climate change education strategies: a systematic review of the research’ Environmental Education Research 25(6): 791-812. Morgan, M.G. (1997) ‘Public perception, understanding and values’. In Richards, D. (Ed) The Industrial Green Game, National Academy Press, Washington DC. Morgan, M. G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A. and Atman, C. J. (2002) Risk communication: a mental models approach Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

161

Mortlock, T., Goodwin, I., Mcaneney, J. and Roche, K. (2017) ‘The June 2016 Australian east coast low: Importance of wave direction for coastal erosion assessment’ Water, 9:121. Myers, O.E. and Beringer, A. (2010) ‘Sustainability in higher education: psychological research for effective pedagogy’ Canadian Journal of Higher Education, 40: 51 -77. Nakagawa, Y. (2017) ‘The lived experience of preparing for earthquakes in households: a phenomenological psychological study’ Natural hazards, 88(3): 1825- 1844. NESA (2019a) State curriculum portal, NSW Education Standards Authority, accessed 1 September 2020 NESA (2019b) 2018 HSC Enrolments by course, NSW Education Standards Authority, accessed 1 August 2020 NESA (2020) NSW Education Standards Authority Charter, NSW Government, accessed 6 September 2020 Nine News (2020) ‘Climate change news headlines’ Nine News Australia, accessed 3 September 2020 < https://www.9news.com.au/climate-change> NOAA (2016) Risk communication and behaviour: best practices and research findings NOAA Social Science Committee, updated July 2016, accessed 10 August 2020 NOAA (2017) Coastal Hazards: preparing for the threats that face our coastal communities National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, accessed 10 August 2020 (OEH) NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (2017a) Coastal erosion in New South Wales: Statewide exposure assessment, NSW Government, accessed 19 May 2020 (OEH) NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (2017b) Coastal management reforms; Coastal Management Act 2016 NSW Government, accessed 14 April 2020

162

(OEH) NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (2017c) Who cares about the environment? A survey of the environmental knowledge, attitudes and behaviours of people in New South Wales in 2015 – Survey, NSW Government, Sydney. (OEH) NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (2017d) Anthropogenic climate change – profile NSW Government, accessed May 2021 (OEH) NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (2018) Coastal management glossary NSW Government, accessed 27 July 2020 Occhipinti, S. (2019) ‘A problem-based learning approach enhancing students’ awareness of natural risks and hazards in Italian schools’ Geosciences 9(7): 283. Oversby, J. (2015) ‘Teachers' learning about climate change education’ Procedia— Social and Behavioral Sciences, 167: 23–27. Patterson, R. and Swain, S. (2016) ‘Sydney storm: sea wall plan for Collaroy could cost $140k per owner, as homes taken off market’, Manly Daily, Daily Telegraph local news accessed 2 July 2020 Pain, N. and Pepper, R. (2019) ‘Legal costs considerations in public interest climate change litigation’ King's Law Journal 30(2): 211-223. Proudfoot, M. and Singh Peterson, L. (2011) ‘Positive SOI, negative PDO and spring tides as simple indicators of the potential for extreme coastal erosion in northern NSW’ Australasian Journal of Environmental Management 18(3): 170-181. Rae, P. (2016) Photograph; ‘The pool torn from the front yard of a Collaroy residence shows the destructive power of the Sydney storm’ accessed August 2020 Ranasinghe, R., Lord, D., Hanslow, D. and McInnes, K. (2007) ‘Climate change impacts on NSW coasts and estuaries’ Coasts and Ports 2007: 18th Australasian Coastal and Ocean Engineering Conference 2007 and the 11th Australasian Port and Harbour Conference 2007. Engineers Australia, Melbourne. Redmiles, E., Acar, Y., Fahl, F. and Mazurek, M. (2017) ‘A summary of survey methodology best practices for security and privacy researchers’, University of Maryland, USA. accessed 15 May 2020 Reid, G. and Norris, S. P. (2016) ‘Scientific media education in the classroom and beyond: A research agenda for the next decade’ Cultural Studies of Science Education, 11: 147–166. Reghu, G., Bhaskaran, P. and Jose, F. (2017) ‘Coastal inundation research: an overview of the process’ Current Science 112(25): 267-278. Reser, J. P., Bradley, G. L., Glendon, A. I., Ellul, M. C., and Callaghan, R. (2012) Public risk perceptions, knowledge and awareness, and responses to climate change and natural disasters in Australia and Great Britain, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, Australia.

163

Rick, U.K., Boykoff, M.T. and Pielke Jr, R.A., (2011) ‘Effective media reporting of sea level rise projections: 1989–2009’ Environmental Research Letters, 6(1): 14004. Riley, K. and White, P. (2019) ‘'Attuning-with', affect, and assemblages of relations in a transdisciplinary environmental education’ Australian Journal of Environmental Education, 35(3): 262-272. Ronan, K.R., Johnston, D.M., Daly, M., and Fairley R. (2001) ‘School children’s risk perception and preparedness: a hazards education survey’ Australian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies, 1: 1174–4707. Rushton, E. (2019) ‘Increasing environmental action through climate change education programmes that enable school students, teachers and technicians to contribute to genuine scientific research’. In: Leal Filho, W. and Hemstock, S. (Eds.) Climate Change and the Role of Education Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. pp507-523. Ryan, A., Gorddard, R., Abel, N., Leitch, A.M., Alexander, K.S. and Wise, R.M. (2011) ‘Perceptions of sea‐level rise risk and the assessment of managed retreat policy: results from an exploratory community survey in Australia’ CSIRO: Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship, Commonwealth of Australia. Rychetnik, L., Sainsbury, P., and Stewart, G. (2018) ‘How local health districts can prepare for the effects of climate change: an adaptation model applied to metropolitan Sydney’ Australian Health Review, 43: 601-610. Salehi, S., Pazuki Nejad, Z., Mahmoudi, H., and Burkart, S. (2016) ‘Knowledge of global climate change: view of Iranian university students’ International Research in Geographical and Environmental Education, 25(3): 226-243. Sanders, F. and Gyakum, J. R. (1980) ‘Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the “bomb”’ Monthly Weather Review, 108: 1589–1606. SBS Nepali (2020) ‘Battered Sydney: One in 100-year weather event causes havoc’ SBS Nepali accessed 29 August 2020 (SCCG) Sydney Coastal Councils Group (2013) ‘Sydney beaches valuation project’ Project management; Withycombe, G., Dominey-Howes, D., Anning, D. accessed 15 March 2019 Schrot O.G., Keller L., Peduzzi D., Riede M., Kuthe A. and Ludwig, D. (2019) ‘Teenagers expand their conceptions of climate change adaptation through research-education cooperation’. In: Leal Filho, W. and Hemstock, S. (Eds.) Climate Change and the Role of Education. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. pp527-547. Serrao-Neumann, S., Harman, B., Leitch, A. and Low Choy, D. (2015) ‘Public engagement and climate adaptation: insights from three local governments in Australia’, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 58(7): 1196-1216. SGC Economics and Planning (2013) ‘Understanding community perceptions of sea level rise’ Urbecon Volume 2 accessed 28 April 2020

164

Siebentritt, M. (2016) ‘Understanding sea-level rise and climate change, and associated impacts on the coastal zone’, CoastAdapt Information Manual 2 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast. Shealy, T., Klotz, L., Godwin, A., Hazari, Z., Potvin, G., Barclay, N. and Cribbs, J., (2019) ‘High school experiences and climate change beliefs of first year college students in the United States’ Environmental Education Research, 25(6): 925-935. Shepardson, D. P., Niyogi, D., Choi, S., and Charusombat, U. (2011) ‘Students’ conceptions about the greenhouse effect, global warming, and climate change’ Climatic Change, 104(3–4): 481–507. Shepardson, D. P., Niyogi, D., Roychoudhury, A., and A. Hirsch. (2012) ‘Conceptualizing climate change in the context of a climate system: Implications for climate and environmental education’ Environmental Education Research, 18(3): 323–352. Shepardson, D.P., Roychoudhury, A., and Hirsch, A.S. (2017) ‘Teaching and learning about climate change: A framework for educators’ New York, NY: Taylor and Francis. Shepperd, J.A., Klein, W.M.P., Waters, E.A., and Weinstein. N. D. (2013) ‘Taking stock of unrealistic optimism’ Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8: 395–411. Short, A.D. (2020) ‘Southern NSW region’ Australian Coastal Systems Springer, Cham. Melbourne. pp. 601-690. Slovic, P. (2000) ‘Informing and educating the public about risk’. In Slovic, P. (Ed) The Perception of Risk, Chapter 11, Earthscan Ltd, London UK. Slovic, P., Finucane, M., Peters, E., and MacGregor, D. (2002) ‘The affect heuristic’. In Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., and Kahneman, D. (Eds.) Intuitive Judgement: Heuristics and Biases Cambridge University Press. pp379-396. Slovic, P., Peters E., Finucane, M., and MacGregor, D. (2005) ‘Affect, risk, and decision making’ Health Psychology, 24(4): 35-40. Smith, T., A. Leitch, and Thomsen, D. (2016) ‘Community engagement. CoastAdapt information manual 9’, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast. Spence, A. and Pidgeon, N. (2010) ‘Framing and communicating climate change: The effects of distance and outcome frame manipulations’ Global Environmental Change, 20: 656–667. Spence, A., Poortinga, W. and Pidgeon, N. (2012) ‘The psychological distance of climate change’ Risk Analysis, 32(6): 957-972. Stammer, D., Van de Wal, R.S.W., Nicholls, R.J., Church, J.A., Le Cozannet, G., Lowe, J.A., Horton, B.P., White, K., Behar, D., and Hinkel, J. (2019) ‘Framework for high‐end estimates of sea level rise for stakeholder applications’ Earth's Future, 7(8): 923-938. Steffan, W., Hunter, J., and Hughes, L. (2014), ‘Counting the costs: climate change and coastal flooding’ Climate Council of Australia, Potts Point (NSW). Steffan, W., Alexander, D. (2016) ‘Super-charged storms in Australia: The influence of climate change’ Climate Council of Australia, Potts Point (NSW).

165

Stevenson, R.B., (2008) A critical pedagogy of place and the critical place (s) of pedagogy. Environmental Education Research, 14(3), pp.353-360. Stevenson, K. T., Peterson, M.N., Bondell, H.D., Moore, S.E. and S.J. Carrier (2014) ‘Overcoming skepticism with education: Interacting influences of worldview and climate change knowledge on perceived climate change risk among adolescents’ Climatic Change, 126: 293–304. Stevenson, K. T., Peterson, M. N., and Bondell, H.D. (2016) ‘The Influence of Personal Beliefs, Friends, and Family in Building Climate Change Concern among Adolescents’ Environmental Education Research, 25(6): 832-845. Story, D.A. and Tait, A.R. (2019) ‘Survey research’ Anesthesiology: The Journal of the American Society of Anesthesiologists, 130(2): 192-202. Stubbs, C. (2014) ‘King tide floods streets, inundates wharves on Central Coast’ Central Coast Gosford Express Advocate, accessed 29 August 2020 Strike, K. A., and Posner, G. J. (1992) ‘A revisionist theory of conceptual change’. In: Duschl, R.A., and Hamilton, R.J., (Eds.), Philosophy of science, cognitive psychology, and educational theory and practice New York: State University of New York Press, pp147–176. Svikis, M. and Lofthouse, J. (2011) ‘Planned retreat options in NSW: are we eroding values and accreting liability for property owners?’ The 3rd Biannual Queensland Coastal Conference, Cairns, accessed 20 June 2020 Syomwenei, A. (2020) Curriculum Theory: Characteristics And Functions (Doctoral dissertation, Moi University). Taylor, M. and Barnes, D. (2016), ‘Major erosion threatens $400m worth of Wamberal homes, infrastructure’ Central Coast Gosford Express Advocate, June 8 2016, accessed 29 August 2020 < https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/central-coast> The Guardian Australia (2020) ‘Sea level’ The Guardian Australia, accessed 11 September 2020 Thomsen, D.C., Smith, T.F., Carter, R.W. and Mayes, G. (2009) ‘Defining community: understanding the meaning of ‘the community’ in Coastal Zone Management’, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue 56: 1316-1319. Tofa, M and Gissing, A. (2017) 'Heatwaves in New South Wales: how are residents and businesses coping?' Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC & AFAC conference, Sydney, Australia, 4/09/17 - 7/09/17, pp. 1-7. Toft, B. and Reynolds, S. (2016) Learning from disasters, a management approach. Springer, UK. Tucker, T.A., Carley, J.T., Couriel, E.D., Phillips, M.S. and Leaman, C.K. (2019) ‘Seawalls and acceptable beach width for public amenity’. Australasian Coasts and Ports 2019 Conference: Future directions from 40 [degrees] S and beyond, Hobart, 10-13 September 2019, Engineers Australia, p.1158.

166

UAC (2020) ‘How your ATAR is calculated’ University Admissions Centre accessed 5 September UNESCO (2009) ‘Closing the gaps: Report of the Commission on climate change and development’ p 76; Report from the UNESCO International Seminar on Climate Change Education, UNESCO, Paris, 2009. (UNFCCC) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2015) Adoption of the Paris Agreement, 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris: United Nations. Verdon-Kidd, D., Kiem, AS., Willgoose, G. and Haines, P. (2010) East coast lows and the Newcastle/Central Coast Pasha Bulker storm, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, Australia. Ware, D., Buckwell, A., Tomlinson, R., Foxwell-Norton, K. and Lazarow, N., (2020) ‘Using historical responses to shoreline change on Australia’s Gold Coast to estimate costs of coastal adaptation to Sea Level Rise’ Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 8(6): 380. Ware, D. and Banhalmi-Zakar, Z. (2017) ‘Funding coastal protection in a changing climate: Lessons from three projects in Australia’ Australian Climate Change Adaptation Research Network for Settlements and Infrastructure Discussion Paper, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Queensland. Watson, P. (2001) ‘Jimmys Beach, Port Stephens, NSW—An expensive learning experience in coastal management’ Coastal Engineering, 2000: 3566-3579. Watson, P. and Frazer, A. (2009) ‘A snapshot of future sea levels: Photographing the king tide 12 January 2009’ Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water NSW, November 2009, accessed 15 July 2020 Watson, P.J. (2020) ‘Updated mean sea-level analysis: Australia.’ Journal of Coastal Research, 36(5): 915–931. White, P. (2018) ‘Walking my talk: taking action to learn/relearn/unlearn towards engaged pedagogy’. In Shapiro, B. (Ed.) Actions of their own to learn: studies in knowing, acting, and being, Brill Sense, Leiden, The Netherlands, pp.41-58. Whitmarsh, L., Lorenzoni, I. and O'Neill, S. (2012) Engaging the public with climate change: Behaviour change and communication. Routledge. Wray-Lake, L., Flanagan, C.A. and Osgood, D.W. (2010) ‘Examining trends in adolescent environmental attitudes, beliefs, and behaviours across three decades’ Environment and Behaviour, 42(1): 61-85. Wu, H.C. (2020) ‘Households disaster memory recollection after the 2013 Colorado flood’ Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 102(3): 1175-1185. Young, M. (2013) Overcoming the crisis in curriculum theory: a knowledge-based approach, Journal of Curriculum Studies, 45:2, 101-118.

167

Yu, T.K., Lavallee, J.P., Di Giusto, B., Chang, I.C. and Yu, T.Y. (2020) ‘Risk perception and response toward climate change for higher education students in Taiwan’ Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27: 24749-24759.

168

Appendix A: Primary Survey Tool

Section 1 i) Is this your first year studying at (any) university? - Yes (continue the survey) - No (Thank you for your time – end survey) ii) What is your age? - < 18 (excluded; Thank you for your time – end survey) - 18 – 20 - 21- 24 - 25 +

iii) Please identify your type of student enrolment - Domestic (please skip to question v) - International (please answer question b and c)

b) what type of international student? c) Which country have you come from to - Full time study in Australia? - Study abroad - Exchange ………………………..…………………….. - Other

v) Please identify which university degree you are enrolled in? (e.g. Bachelor of Science, Bachelor of Arts, etc.)……………………………………………………

vi) What is your gender? • Male • Female • Identify as other Section 2: This section asks you about your previous education and coastal usage

1. As part of your HIGH SCHOOL education, did you learn about any of the following COASTAL HAZARDS in your subjects? Sea level rise Yes No Don’t know Coastal inundation (flooding) Yes No Don’t know Severe coastal storms Yes No Don’t know Coastal erosion Yes No Don’t know

1a. As part of your HIGH SCHOOL education, did you learn about any of the following COASTAL HAZARDS in your senior school years (11 or 12)?

169

Sea level rise Yes No Don’t know Coastal inundation (flooding) Yes No Don’t know Severe coastal storms Yes No Don’t know Coastal erosion Yes No Don’t know

1b. In general, how well do you think the following COASTAL HAZARDS WERE presented/taught to you in high school? (1 = not well at all; 7 extremely well) Sea level rise 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Coastal inundation (flooding) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Severe coastal storms 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Coastal erosion 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1c) Do you think you would have liked more/less/about the same amount of information about these coastal hazards in high school? Sea level rise More Less About the same Don’t know Coastal inundation (flooding) More Less About the same Don’t know Severe coastal storms More Less About the same Don’t know Coastal erosion More Less About the same Don’t know

2. In general, how confident are you in your knowledge about the following coastal hazards? (1 = no knowledge and 7 = very knowledgeable) Sea level rise 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Coastal inundation (flooding) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Severe coastal storms 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Coastal erosion 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

3. Approximately how far do you PRESENTLY live from the nearest coastal waters (eg. beach, harbour, estuary)? • Don’t know • Less than 1km • 1 – 5km • 5-10 km • 10-50 km

4. How long have you been living at this address? • All my life • <1 year (go to question 4b) • 1-5 years (go to question 4b) • 5-10 years (go to question 4b) • Other

4b. In the place you spent most of your time growing up in, how far did you live from the nearest ocean coast? • Don’t know • Less than 1km

170

• 1 – 5km • 5-10 km • 10-50 km • More than 50 km

5. Which type of coast do you most often spend time at? • Ocean beaches • Harbour • Cliffs/headlands • Rock platforms • An estuary, coastal lake or lagoon • Wetlands • Other (please specify)………………………………………

6. In a typical year, how often do you spend time at the coast (e.g. beach, harbour, estuary)? • Almost every day • At least once a week • At least once a month • A few times a year • Never

7. What is the main activity you use the coast for? Please select one answer None, I never visit the coast Shopping / eating / socialising Bathing / swimming Boating/sailing Surfing / board-riding Exercise e.g. walking, jogging, fitness group Snorkelling/diving Enjoying the view / connecting with nature Sunbathing Hiking or bushwalking Fishing Other (Please specify) …………………………..

171

8. If you had both the opportunity and finances to buy this house, would you buy it and live in it? • Yes • No • Unsure

8a. Please explain your answer ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

9. In 20 years’ time, do you feel that you will be able to enjoy the coast that you visit most often in the same way as you do now?

• Don’t know • Yes • No (please state why not)……………………………………………………...... …………………………………………………………………………………………………... …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 10. What do you think is the biggest threat to your future use of the coast you visit most? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Section 3: Coastal Hazards and hazard perception

11a) How much risk do you think the following hazards pose to the PHYSICAL SAFETY of the New South Wales (NSW) community over the next 20 years? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 a) Bushfires 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 b) Drought 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 c) Flooding 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 d) Sea Level rise 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 e) Heatwave 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 f) Severe coastal storm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 g) Coastal erosion

11b) How much risk do you think the following hazards pose ECONOMICALLY to the NSW community over the next 20 years?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 a) Bushfires

172

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 b) Drought 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 c) Flooding 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 d) Sea Level rise 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 e) Heatwave 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 f) Severe coastal storm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 g) Coastal erosion

12. Which statement best describes what you think about sea level rise?

• It’s not happening • It is happening • Unsure

13. How much do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about sea level rise? (1= Strongly disagree, 4= neither agree/disagree, 7= strongly agree)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sea level rise will mostly affect other countries other than Australia 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 The NSW coast will be affected by sea level rise 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 The coast I most frequently visit will be impacted by sea level rise 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sea level rise will have a big impact on me in the future

14. How much do you think sea level will change on the NSW coast in the next 20 years?

• Don’t know • It won’t change • It will fall • It will rise somewhere between 1 - 25cm • It will rise somewhere between 25 – 50cm • It will rise somewhere between 50 cm to 1 m • It will rise by more than 1 m

173

In June 2016, the NSW coast experienced a major coastal storm that lasted several days, with large waves over 6 metres, strong winds of 100km per hour and heavy rainfall. The weather and wave conditions combined with a high tide and storm surge to cause major damage along the NSW coast. The storm was considered a 1-in-100 year event.

15. What kind of damage do you think a storm like this would cause along the coast?

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

16. How often do you think storms like this happen?

• About once every 100 years • About once every 50 years • About once every 20 years • About once every 5 years • About once per year • More than once per year • None of the above • Unsure

17. In the next 20 years, do you think storms like this will:

• Occur more often • Occur less often • Happen about the same amount as they always have • Don’t know

18. In the next 20 years, do you think storms like this will be:

• More damaging • About the same • Less damaging • Don’t know

174

19. Generally speaking, when damage from coastal storms shown in the image below occurs, who do you think should pay for clean-up and repair? (select one response only)

No-one, nature is unpredictable The owners of properties that were damaged

The local council where the damage occurred

State government Federal government

Insurance companies

Other (specify)…………………………………

This photograph is an example of COASTAL INUNDATION (Flooding of low-lying coastal areas) at Narrabeen on Sydney’s Northern Beaches.

175

20. Which of the following do you think are the main causes of ‘coastal inundation’? Tick all that apply: • I don’t know • Heavy rain • High tides • King tides • Storm surges • Sea level rise • Overflowing estuaries or lagoons • Overflowing storm water drains • Overpopulation in coastal areas • Over-development of buildings and houses in coastal areas

21. In 20 years’ time do you think instances of coastal inundation in NSW will a) decrease b) stay about the same c) increase d) don’t know

In the next series of questions, COASTAL EROSION refers to the natural removal of sand or sediments from a shoreline (i.e. beach, estuary, lagoon).

176

22. Please indicate how much you agree/disagree with the following statements (1= Strongly disagree, 4= neither agree/disagree, 7= strongly agree)

Because coastal erosion is a natural process, the coastline will 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 always recover naturally, so we don’t need to worry about it

Coastal erosion is only a problem for people who live on the beach 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Instances of severe coastal erosion will increase in the future 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 In the future, coastal erosion will affect the way that I use the coast

Section 4: Talking about coastal hazards In this section, we’d like to know where you get information about sea level rise, coastal erosion, coastal flooding and coastal storms.

25. Apart from any information you may have received at high school, where else have you previously gained information about SEA LEVEL RISE? select all that apply

I have never received any information about Dedicated websites, YouTube coastal erosion videos

Local council or government Social media (i.e. Facebook, twitter)

News media (newspapers/television/online news) Community group

Documentary (film or TV) Books

Brochures/pamphlets Personal/direct experience

Neighbours, friends, family Other ………………………………

26. Apart from any information you may have received at high school, where else have you previously gained information about COASTAL EROSION? select all that apply I have never received any information about Dedicated websites, YouTube coastal erosion videos Local council or government Social media (i.e. Facebook, twitter) News media (newspapers/television/online news) Community group Documentary (film or TV) Books Brochures/pamphlets Personal/direct experience Neighbours, friends, family Other ………………………………

27. Apart from any information you may have received at high school, where else have you previously gained information about COASTAL INUNDATION? select all that apply I have never received any information about Dedicated websites, YouTube coastal inundation videos Local council or government Social media (i.e. Facebook, twitter)

177

News media (newspapers/television/online news) Community group Documentary (film or TV) Books Brochures/pamphlets Personal/direct experience Neighbours, friends, family Other ……………………………

28. How would you prefer to receive information about these topics in the future? Select one answer

From government publications Print media (brochures/posters/pamphlets) Documentary (film or tv) Dedicated websites, Youtube videos In the national news On social media (Facebook, Twitter, (tv/online/newspapers) Instagram) In my local newspaper Other (specify)………………………………

END OF SURVEY Thank you for taking part in our survey. If you would like to receive information from UNSW regarding the outcomes of this research, please contact Anna Attard at [email protected]

178