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Kenya Economic Outlook 2016 the Story Behind the Numbers

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Kenya Economic Outlook 2016 the Story Behind the Numbers Kenya Economic Outlook 2016 The Story Behind the Numbers Disclaimer This publication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and their affiliates are, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your finances or your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. None of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and their respective affiliates shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication. 2 | Economic Outlook 2016 Preamble The Kenya Economic Outlook 2016 report provides an overview of Kenya’s economic environment and key sectors. The report also highlights significant allocations from the 2016/17 budget to various sectors in the country. June 2016 Economic Outlook 2016 | 3 Kenya Economic Review Political overview Economic overview With Kenya’s next Presidential and legislative elections scheduled for According to data released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics August 2017, the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts that political (KNBS), the increase in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) tensions will rise as campaigning gathers momentum. The country’s from 5.3% in 2014 to 5.6% in 2015 was driven by the construction President, Uhuru Kenyatta, is likely to seek re-election for a second sector that grew by 13.6% in 2015 compared to 13.1% in 2014, the and final five-year term as President especially since the International financial and insurance sector that grew by 8.7% in 2015 from 8.3% in Criminal Court (ICC) dropped both his and the Deputy President’s 2014 and the agricultural sector that reported a 5.6% growth in 2015 (William Ruto) cases. compared to the sector’s growth of 3.5% in 2014. Kenya faces insecurity threats most notably from Al-Shabaab, the The National Treasury reported that Kenya had a fiscal deficit of 8.7% of Somalia-based Islamist group that carried out a string of terrorist attacks GDP in FY15. BMI forecasts a fiscal deficit of 8.1% of GDP in FY16 due such as the massacre of 147 people at Garissa University College in April to shortfalls in income tax and value added tax (VAT) collections despite 2015 and the killing of 67 people at the Westgate Mall in September efforts by the Government to increase tax compliance through incentive 2013. The EIU notes that security risks will not necessarily improve after programmes and electronic payment systems. the 2017 election. The Central Bank of Kenya’s (CBK) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in Corruption is a major impediment to doing business in Kenya with May 2016 lowered its benchmark interest rate to 10.5% from 11.5% allegations of misappropriation of public funds on the rise. The 2015 due the trends of reducing inflation rates and stabilisation of the Kenyan Corruption Perception Index released by Transparency International (TI) shilling (KES). Following this move, the MPC is also expected to revise ranked Kenya among the most corrupt countries at 139 out of 168 the base lending rate, Kenya Banks’ Reference Rate (KBRR) in June 2016 countries. and hence reduce the cost of credit in the country in the second half of 2016. According to Business Monitor Intelligence (BMI), Uganda‘s decision to The health of the banking sector in the country has come under pursue an oil pipeline route through Tanzania instead of Kenya in April severe scrutiny following the placement of three banks under statutory 2016 highlights economic competition that will undermine the East management by the CBK. BMI notes that the CBK’s enforcement of African Community’s (EAC) goal of regional integration. This decision strict prudential regulations along with an over-served banking sector will see the scope of Kenya’s Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport present opportunities for consolidation in the sector. (LAPSSET) corridor project reduced since the pipeline was a major part As a member of the integrated EAC, Kenya’s external performance will of the project. also depend on the growth rate of EAC countries. According to BMI, all countries in the EAC except Burundi and South Sudan will achieve rapid The EIU notes that Kenya’s foreign policy will be driven by economic GDP growth rates. interests; especially the maintenance of close relations with donors and the advancement of regional integration of the EAC between 2016 and BMI notes that 9.3% of the workforce in Kenya is unemployed while the 2020. country’s poverty rate is over 40%. BMI however forecasts that the net income per household will reach USD 2,496 in 2020 from USD 1,752 in 2016 due to the country’s improving economy. 4 | Economic Outlook 2016 8 Chart 1: Kenya’s annual GDP growth rate (%) 7 68 5.3 57 5.6 6 4 6.0 5.8 3 5 2013 6.3 4 6.4 Source: Business2014 Monitor Intelligence 6.1 GDP 9 3 BMI reported that Kenya remained resilient through a 2015 8 2013 6.4 turbulent 2015 characterised by currency instability and monetary tightening to post an economic growth of 5.6% 7 2016 2014 in 2015 from 5.3% in 2013. BMI forecasts Kenya’s economy 6 Chart 2: Kenya’s inflation rate (%) 9 2017 to grow by 6% in 2016 and by an average of 6.1% between 5 2015 2016 and 2020 supported by strong public investment in 8 4 2018 infrastructure, a dynamic services sector and favourable 2016 7 7.1 demographics. 3 2019 6 BMI projects the Kenyan Government’s spending to rise by 2 2017 5 6.9 7.0 2020 7.7% in 2016 from 5.8% in 2015 as it remains committed to 1 4 2018 spending heavily on infrastructure. 0 According to BMI, consumer spending will also be a key 3 6.6 2019 driver of Kenya’s economic growth between 2016 and 2020. 2 Apr-15 5.8 BMI predicts private spending to grow from KES 4.7 trillion 2020 1 May-15 6.7 8.1 in 2015 to KES 8.7 trillion in 2020 due to rising incomes, 6.0 0 Jun-15 favourable demographics and growing financial inclusion 7.3 170 Jul-15 as mobile financial services continue to spread across the 7.8 160 Apr-15 Aug-15 country. 6.8 150 May-15 Sept-15 Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Inflation Jun-15 Oct-15 140 The KNBS reported a reduction in overall inflation to 5.3% in 170 Jul-15 Nov-15 130 6.5 April 2016 from 7.1% in April 2015 due to lower food prices 160 Aug-15 Dec-15 120 5.3 and reduced motoring expenses caused by low fuel prices. 150 Sept-15 Jan-16 The EIU expects inflation to average 5.6% in 2016 due to 110 Oct-15 Feb-16 140 subdued oil prices, lower electricity tariffs due to increased 100 Nov-15 Mar-16 reliance on drought-resistant geothermal power and low food 130 90 Dec-15 Apr-16 prices due to improved rainfall. 120 Jan-16 The EIU forecasts inflation to average 5.1% between 2017 80 110 Feb-16 and 2020 due to a prudent monetary policy and efficiency gains arising from regulatory reform and investment in 100 Apr-15 Mar-16 infrastructure. The EIU notes that drought remains a potential 90 May-15 Apr-16 risk to inflation and demand pressures will prevent a rapid Jun-15 80 decline in inflation. Jul-15 25 Apr-15 Aug-15 May-15 Sept-15 20 Jun-15 Oct-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 25 15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Sept-15 Jan-16 1020 Oct-15 Feb-16 Nov-15 Mar-16 Economic Outlook 2016 515 Dec-15 Apr-16 Jan-16 10 0 Feb-16 Mar-16 Jan-15 5 Apr-16 | Feb-15 5 Mar-15 0 Apr-15 Jan-15 May-15 Feb-15 Jun-15 Mar-15 Jul-15 Apr-15 Aug-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 Oct-15 Feb-16 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 8 7 6 5 4 3 2013 2014 9 2015 8 7 2016 6 2017 5 4 2018 3 2019 2 2020 1 Interest0 rates According to the CBK, lending rates in Kenya increased from 15.5% in February Apr2015-15 to 17.9% in February 2016 while deposit rates increased from 6.7% to 7.5%May- in15 the same period perhaps due to a move by Kenyan banks to maintainJun- their15 interest spreads following the increase in the base lending rate by CBK by 300 basis points to 11.5% in July 2015. 170 Jul-15 160 Aug-15 The World Bank attributes the high interest spreads in Kenya due to lack Sept-15 of150 competitiveness in the banking sector and the high cost of financial Oct-15 140intermediation. The World Bank notes that large banks in Kenya Nov-15 130have the power to maintain wide interest spreads at the expense of borrowers and depositors. Dec-15 120 Jan-16 The110 CBK reported that the 91 day Treasury Bill (T-bill) rates were volatile Feb-16 100in 2015 increasing from 8.3% in June 2015 to 21.7% in October 2015.
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