India- Mumbai- Residential Q2 2020
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M A R K E T B E AT MUMBAI Residential Q2 2020 Sharp drop in new launches in Q2 2020 Mumbai’s residential market saw the launch of only 1,230 residential units spread across five projects, in Q2 2020. New launches were down by 91.7% on a q-o-q basis and 92.3% on an annual basis, making it the weakest quarter of all-time in terms of market activity as the lockdown in Mumbai remained in force DECREASE IN NEW LAUNCHES in the face of rising infection cases. The sub-markets of Thane, Eastern Suburbs and Extended Western Suburbs witnessed new launches with Thane 4.7% ON Y-O-Y BASIS accounting for a 55.3% share. Piramal Realty, Sumer Corporation, Ornate Universal, Raunak Group and Vaibhav Laxmi Shivsmruti Developers were the players who introduced new projects in the quarter. Project approval delays in Q2 were a key reason for the significantly lower launches. With a number of developers already facing a cash crunch, most of the SHARE OF MID AND AFFORDABLE focus clearly remains towards clearing their unsold inventory or completing projects which are already under construction over the past few quarters. 91% SEGMENT IN Q1 2020 LAUNCHES However, the ongoing lockdown has brought construction activity to a near-standstill in key locations across the city and labour constraints have made it increasingly difficult to complete ongoing projects. The recently announced extension of completion deadlines of RERA-registered projects will provide some SHARE OF EXTENDED SUBURBS relief to developers and their under-construction projects. But, this also means that many developers will hold back their planned launches for the next 3-6 41% IN LAUNCHES (Q1 2020) months with completion of old projects remaining a priority. Drop in new residential launches across segments With a 70.5% share, the mid segment continued to account for the maximum in Q2 new launches. However, all residential segments witnessed contraction in new launches during the quarter. The COVID-19 pandemic has had the highest impact on the affordable housing sector, as developers active in this MARKET INDICATORS OVERALL Q2 2020 segment have been facing cash flow issues due to drop in sales in recent months. This has prompted the developers to hold back new project launches. Moreover, the mid-segment, which has been the most active segment over the last few quarters in terms of new launches, has also been adversely affected Y-O-Y 12-Months by deferral of purchasing plans by homebuyers. Prevailing income and employment uncertainty among end-users will lead to delays in new project launches Change Forecast in the medium term. Home buying decisions are deeply dependent on-site visits, physical inspections and the overall in-person home experience, but the ongoing lockdown has led to curtailment of these processes and will continue to impact buying decisions for the next two to three quarters. However, Western Suburbs, Eastern New Launches Suburbs and Thane submarkets continued to attract home buyers who are looking for ready to move in homes in mid segment price category during the quarter. Going forward, we expect developers to cater to the rising demand for flexible homes, with spaces which can be used as private office or Units Sold classrooms for kids, in keeping with the growing trend of remote working and learning. Capital values expected to rationalize in the near term Average Capital Rental values across suburban submarkets and mid and affordable segments remained range-bound during the quarter. However, rental values in the Values (INR/sf) premium residential segment have seen a 10-15% correction in prime locations like Lower Parel, Worli, Mahalaxmi, Prabhadevi, Bandra West Powai, etc. During the quarter, average quoted capital values across residential locations and price segments have seen a 2-5% correction, while the base price range continues to remain steady. Most of the developers already reeling under the pressure of rising unsold inventory and drop in sales volume are experiencing higher liquidity challenges and are likely to consider a reduction in base prices to ensure higher sales. We anticipate that capital values, particularly of ongoing projects mainly in the luxury and high-end segments are likely to rationalize in the medium term. Currently, established developers with a higher ability to sustain during this period of sluggish sales, are also offering a flat discount of 5-10% on base level prices across all submarkets to sell off the unsold inventory, indicating the increased pressure on smaller developers. SIGNIFICANT PROJECT LAUNCHED IN Q2 2020 BUILDING LOCATION DEVELOPER UNITS LAUNCHED RATE**(INR/SF) Piramal Vaikunth – Cluster 3 Thane Piramal Realty 635 14,850 – 15,700 Sumer Life Chandivali Sumer Corporation 253 17,850 – 18,000 Ornate Height Vasai East Ornare Universal 204 9,500 – 9,900 M A R K E T B E AT MUMBAI Residential Q2 2020 RENTAL VALUES AS OF Q2 2020* CAPITAL VALUES AS OF Q2 2020* AVERAGE AVERAGE QUOTED QoQ CHANGE YoY CHANGE SHORT TERM QoQ CHANGE YoY CHANGE SHORT TERM SUBMARKET QUOTED RENT SUBMARKET CAPITAL VALUES (%) (%) OUTLOOK (%) (%) OUTLOOK (INR/MONTH) (INR/SF) High-end segment High-end segment South 60,000 – 600,000 -14.3% -14.3% South 40,000 – 80,000 -2.4% -2.4% South Central 60,000 – 490,000 -10.9% -10.9% South Central 22,000 – 70,000 -3.2% -3.2% Eastern Suburbs 25,000 – 360,000 -10.0% -10.0% Eastern Suburbs 12,000 – 38,000 3.8% 3.8% Western Suburbs – Prime 50,000 – 800,000 -12.5% -12.5% Western Suburbs – Prime 24,000 – 62,000 -3.4% -3.4% Mid segment Mid segment Eastern Suburbs 18,000 – 70,000 0% 0% Eastern Suburbs 10,000 – 23,000 -2.9% -2.9% Western Suburbs 20,000 – 80,000 0% 0% Western Suburbs 9,000 – 25,000 -2.9% -2.9% Thane 14,000 – 28,000 0% 0% Thane 7,000 – 13,000 -4.8% -4.8% Navi Mumbai 10,000 – 50,000 0% 0% Navi Mumbai 5,000 – 14,000 -5.0% -5.0% SIGNIFICANT PROJECT COMPLETED IN Q2 2020 BUILDING LOCATION DEVELOPER NO. OF UNITS UNIT SIZE (SF) Lodha Palava City – Central Park Dombivali Lodha Group 2,500 666 – 1,242 Rohan Sharma Acme Ozone Phase 2 – Alpinia Thane Acme Developers 180 1,066 – 1,318 Director, Research Services +91 124 4695555 /[email protected] Vasant Oasis – Tower 15 Danica Andheri East Sheth Creators 154 413 - 878 Kapil Kanala SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION – TO BE COMPLETED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS Associate Director, Research Services BUILDING LOCATION DEVELOPER UNITS LAUNCHED EXPECTED COMPLETION +91 40 40405555 /[email protected] Sunteck City Avenue Goregaon West Sunteck Realty 720 Q3 2020 – Q4 2020 cushmanwakefield.com Ajmera Treon Wadala Ajmera Group 380 Q4 2020 Kalpataru Radiance Goregaon West Kalpataru Group 320 Q1 2021 A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global Data collated from primary and secondary resources. Estimations are subject to change real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for * Rental and capital values have been depicted only for key submarkets and are based on saleable area. real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is ** Quoted capital value of new launches is on carpet area based on agreement values which includes, Base Rate, Car Parking Charges, Internal Development Charges, etc. among the largest real estate services firms with The above values for high-end segment are for units typically of 1,200-3,000 sf approximately 51,000 employees in 400 offices and 70 countries. In 2018, the firm had revenue of $8.2 billion The above values for mid segment are for units typically of 800-1,400 sf across core services of property, facilities and project Affordable housing has been defined as units with a carpet area of 60 sq.mt in metros / 90 sq.mt in non-metros and value up to INR 45 lakhs management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. KEY TO SUBMARKETS Mid Segment Eastern Suburbs: Sion, Wadala, Kurla, Chembur, Ghatkopar, Vikhroli, Powai, Chandivali, ©2020 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information High-end Segment Kanjurmarg, Bhandup, Mulund contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed South: Colaba, Cuffe Parade, Nariman Point, Churchgate, Altamount Road, Carmichael Western Suburbs: Andheri, Jogeshwari, Goregaon, JVLR, Malad, Kandivali, Borivali, Dahisar to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is Road, Malabar Hill, Napeansea Road, Breach Candy, Pedder Road, Tardeo Thane: Thane, Ghodbunder Road presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. South Central: Worli, Prabhadevi, Lower Parel / Parel, Dadar, Matunga Navi Mumbai: Airoli, Ghansoli, Rabale, Koparkhairane, Vashi, Turbhe, Sanpada, Nerul, Belapur, Eastern Suburbs: Wadala, Sion, Kurla, Chembur, Ghatkopar, Vikhroli, Powai, Chandivali Kharghar, Panvel Western Suburbs - Prime: Bandra, Khar, Santacruz, Juhu.