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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Overview The goal of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment “to establish the scientific basis for actions needed to enhance the contribution of ecosystems to human well-being without undermining their long-term productivity” Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Rapid Global Change: Climate • 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; • 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; • 2000 to 2100, SRES projections Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Source: International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Growing Demand For Ecosystem Services Food Water Wood Production must One-third of the Wood demand increase to meet population now (fuel, timber) will needs of subject to water double in next 50 additional 3 scarcity. Number years billion people will double over over the next 30 the next 30 years years Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems Provisioning Regulating Cultural Goods produced or Benefits obtained Non-material provided by from regulation of benefits from ecosystems ecosystem ecosystems processes • spiritual • food • recreational • fresh water • climate regulation • aesthetic • fuel wood • disease regulation • inspirational • genetic resources • flood regulation • educational Supporting Services necessary for production of other ecosystem services • Soil formation • Nutrient cycling • Primary production Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Seeks to substantially increase the information available for resources managers and policymakers to better manage the environment. Established in response to: The growing challenge of balancing multiple demands on the environment, (e.g. Food, Water, Biodiversity, etc.) The vast scale of the changes now being made in global ecosystems (e.g, Land cover, nitrogen flows, climate change etc.) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment An international scientific assessment of the consequences of ecosystem changes for human well-being Launched in 2001, reports due in 2005 Providing information requested by: Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD) Ramsar Convention on Wetlands Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) other partners including the private sector and civil society With the goals of: stimulating and guiding action building capacity Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Key design features of the MA MA Political legitimacy Authorized by four conventions and UN Scientific credibility Follows IPCC procedures Utility Focus strongly shaped by audience Strong sub-global features FCCC Ramsar CCD CBD CMS SBSTA STRP CST SBSTTA SC IPCC MA Research, UN Data, National and International Assessments Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Science Assessment: A social process to bring the findings of science to bear on the needs of decision-makers Stakeholders: Governments Assessment Private Sector Civil Society Monitoring Research Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Science Assessment Authoritative Policy relevant, not policy prescriptive Stakeholders have “ownership” in process and findings Reflect ‘consensus’ of science (while identifying areas of scientific disagreement) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Who established the assessment? UN Secretary General Kofi Annan called for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in his 2000 Report to the UN General assembly Parties to four conventions took decisions establishing the MA as one source of assessment input. Convention on Biological Diversity Convention to Combat Desertification Convention on Wetlands (Ramsar) Convention on Migratory Species UN Secretary General launched the MA in June 2001 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Who governs the assessment? Board represents “Users” of the MA findings Conventions CBD, UNCCD, UNFCCC, Ramsar, CMS UN Agencies UNEP, UNDP, FAO, WHO, UNESCO Donors GEF, UN Foundation International science organizations CGIAR, ICSU, IUCN At large representation Private sector NGOs Scientists indigenous people Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Organizational Structure Committees:Committees: Executive MAMA BoardBoard Executive BudgetBudget ReviewReview CommunicationsCommunications BoardBoard ChairsChairs AssessmentAssessment PanelPanel WorkingWorking GroupGroup ChairsChairs SupportSupport FunctionsFunctions Outreach & Director, Administration, Outreach & Director, Administration, Engagement Logistics,Logistics, DataData ManagementManagement Engagement ChapterChapter Sub-GlobalSub-Global AssessmentAssessment ConditionCondition ScenariosScenarios ResponseResponse ReviewReview WorkingWorking GroupGroup EditorsEditors Global Assessment Working Groups Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Who is conducting the assessment? Technical work overseen by a 13-member Assessment Panel Co-chairs: Hal Mooney (USA), Angela Cropper (Trinidad) Members: Bob Scholes (South Africa) Cristian Samper (USA) Rashid Hassan (South Africa) Doris Capistrano (Indonesia) Prabhu Pingali (FAO, Rome) Bob May (UK) Steve Carpenter (USA) Partha Dasgupta (UK) Rik Leemans (Netherlands) Zhao Shidong (China) Kanchan Chopra (India) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Who is conducting the assessment? More than 700 Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, and Chapter Review Editors from ~90 countries ½ natural scientists; ½ social scientists Hundreds of additional experts involved in sub- global assessments Expect more than 1000 expert reviewers Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Timeline Launch and design Core assessment work Review process Board approval 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 UN Launch Release of Release of Conceptual Assessment Framework report Reports Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Assessment Focus: Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems Provisioning Regulating Cultural Goods produced or Benefits obtained Non-material provided by from regulation of benefits from ecosystems ecosystem ecosystems processes • spiritual • food • recreational • fresh water • climate regulation • aesthetic • fuel wood • disease regulation • inspirational • genetic resources • flood regulation • educational Supporting Services necessary for production of other ecosystem services • Soil formation • Nutrient cycling • Primary production Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being Ecosystem Services Constituents of Well-being Security Provisioning Services Basic Material for Supporting Regulating Good Life Freedoms Services Services and Choice Health Cultural Services Good Social Relations Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA Framework Human Wellbeing and Indirect Drivers of Change Poverty Reduction Demographic Material minimum for a good Economic (globalization, trade, life market and policy framework) Health Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework) Good Social RelationsHuman Wellbeing ScienceIndirect andDrivers Technology Security and CulturalOf Change and Religious Freedom andPoverty Choice Reduction Direct Drivers of Change Ecosystem Changes in land use or land cover Services SpeciesDirect introductionsDrivers or removals TechnologyOf Change adaptation and use Life on Earth: External inputs (e.g., irrigation, Biodiversity fertilizer use, pest control) Harvest and Resource Consumption Climate Change Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes, evolution) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA Examines Multiple Drivers as they Influence Ecosystems and Human Well-being Climate Land Cover Biodiversity Nutrient Driver Etc. Climate Change Change Change Loss Loading Energy Food Biodiversity Water Response Sector Supply Ecosystems Human Health Economics Social Health Economics Social Impact IPCC Millennium Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA examines trade-offs among services Food supply and d demand CO2 an Hydrologic e changes temperatur Climate change ons N 0 emissi N, CH4, 2 Water use and nutrient loss Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686. H P rec Water availability a ipi b tati i o t n a & C t t e L m h c p e a h a ra tu n a n r e d n L g o t g e r s e a i s n n o s t f f r c o a r o r n p m s p g a e i H t ra n i o a e Freshwater supply and b t t n i i c o i t a n d t i v l & o e s r s a s i l t b y e d demand o s at los Habit Biodiversity Erosion and loss Reduced resilience to change Forest product supply water flow and demand Loss and fragmentation of habitat Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA Working Groups Condition Working Group What is the current condition Scenario Working Group and historical trends of ecosystems and their Given plausible changes in services? primary drivers, what will be the consequences for What have been the ecosystems, their services, consequences of changes in and human well-being? ecosystems for human well- being? Responses Working Group What can we do to enhance well-being and conserve ecosystems? Sub-Global Assessment Working Group All of the above… at sub-global scales Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Northern Wisconsin Gorongosa Marromeu Sweden Urban Ecosystems: Sao Paulo Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA is a Multi-scale Assessment e.g., Southern Africa Millennium Assessment SADC region 3 drainage basins Local assessments Zambezi Gariep Source: Reyers, B., SAfMA Lessons Learned (Panama, June 2002) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Why a Multi-Scale Assessment? Expect that findings at any scale of a multi-scale assessment will be improved by information and perspectives from other
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