Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Overview The goal of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

“to establish the scientific basis for actions needed to enhance the contribution of ecosystems to human well-being without undermining their long-term productivity”

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Rapid Global Change: Climate

• 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; • 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; • 2000 to 2100, SRES projections Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Source: International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Growing Demand For Ecosystem Services

Food Water Wood

Production must One-third of the Wood demand increase to meet population now (fuel, timber) will needs of subject to water double in next 50 additional 3 scarcity. Number years billion people will double over over the next 30 the next 30 years years

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems

Provisioning Regulating Cultural Goods produced or Benefits obtained Non-material provided by from regulation of benefits from ecosystems ecosystem ecosystems processes • spiritual • food • recreational • fresh water • climate regulation • aesthetic • fuel wood • disease regulation • inspirational • genetic resources • flood regulation • educational Supporting Services necessary for production of other ecosystem services

• Soil formation • Nutrient cycling • Primary production

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Seeks to substantially increase the information available for resources managers and policymakers to better manage the environment.

Established in response to: The growing challenge of balancing multiple demands on the environment, (e.g. Food, Water, Biodiversity, etc.) The vast scale of the changes now being made in global ecosystems (e.g, Land cover, nitrogen flows, climate change etc.)

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

An international scientific assessment of the consequences of ecosystem changes for human well-being Launched in 2001, reports due in 2005 Providing information requested by: Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD) Ramsar Convention on Wetlands Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) other partners including the private sector and civil society With the goals of: stimulating and guiding action building capacity

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Key design features of the MA

MA Political legitimacy Authorized by four conventions and UN Scientific credibility Follows IPCC procedures Utility Focus strongly shaped by audience Strong sub-global features

FCCC Ramsar CCD CBD CMS SBSTA STRP CST SBSTTA SC

IPCC MA

Research, UN Data, National and International Assessments

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Science Assessment:

A social process to bring the findings of science to bear on the needs of decision-makers

Stakeholders: Governments Assessment Private Sector Civil Society

Monitoring Research

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Science Assessment

Authoritative Policy relevant, not policy prescriptive Stakeholders have “ownership” in process and findings Reflect ‘consensus’ of science (while identifying areas of scientific disagreement)

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Who established the assessment?

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan called for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in his 2000 Report to the UN General assembly Parties to four conventions took decisions establishing the MA as one source of assessment input. Convention on Biological Diversity Convention to Combat Desertification Convention on Wetlands (Ramsar) Convention on Migratory Species UN Secretary General launched the MA in June 2001

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Who governs the assessment? Board represents “Users” of the MA findings Conventions CBD, UNCCD, UNFCCC, Ramsar, CMS UN Agencies UNEP, UNDP, FAO, WHO, UNESCO Donors GEF, UN Foundation International science organizations CGIAR, ICSU, IUCN At large representation Private sector NGOs Scientists indigenous people

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Organizational Structure

Committees:Committees: Executive MAMA BoardBoard Executive BudgetBudget ReviewReview CommunicationsCommunications BoardBoard ChairsChairs

AssessmentAssessment PanelPanel WorkingWorking GroupGroup ChairsChairs

SupportSupport FunctionsFunctions Outreach & Director, Administration, Outreach & Director, Administration, Engagement Logistics,Logistics, DataData ManagementManagement Engagement

ChapterChapter Sub-GlobalSub-Global AssessmentAssessment ConditionCondition ScenariosScenarios ResponseResponse ReviewReview WorkingWorking GroupGroup EditorsEditors

Global Assessment Working Groups

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Who is conducting the assessment?

Technical work overseen by a 13-member Assessment Panel

Co-chairs: Hal Mooney (USA), Angela Cropper (Trinidad)

Members: Bob Scholes (South Africa) Cristian Samper (USA) Rashid Hassan (South Africa) Doris Capistrano (Indonesia) Prabhu Pingali (FAO, Rome) Bob May (UK) Steve Carpenter (USA) Partha Dasgupta (UK) Rik Leemans (Netherlands) Zhao Shidong (China) Kanchan Chopra (India)

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Who is conducting the assessment?

More than 700 Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, and Chapter Review Editors from ~90 countries ½ natural scientists; ½ social scientists

Hundreds of additional experts involved in sub- global assessments

Expect more than 1000 expert reviewers

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Timeline

Launch and design Core assessment work Review process

Board approval

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

UN Launch Release of Release of Conceptual Assessment Framework report Reports

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Assessment Focus: Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems

• Soil formation • Nutrient cycling • Primary production

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being Ecosystem Services Constituents of Well-being

Security Provisioning Services

Basic Material for Supporting Regulating Good Life Freedoms Services Services and Choice

Health Cultural Services

Good Social Relations

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA Framework

Human Wellbeing and Indirect Drivers of Change Poverty Reduction Demographic Material minimum for a good Economic (globalization, trade, life market and policy framework) Health Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework) Good Social RelationsHuman Wellbeing ScienceIndirect andDrivers Technology Security and CulturalOf Change and Religious Freedom andPoverty Choice Reduction

Direct Drivers of Change Ecosystem Changes in land use or land cover Services SpeciesDirect introductionsDrivers or removals TechnologyOf Change adaptation and use Life on Earth: External inputs (e.g., irrigation, Biodiversity fertilizer use, pest control) Harvest and Resource Consumption Climate Change Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes, evolution) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA Examines Multiple Drivers as they Influence Ecosystems and Human Well-being

Climate Land Cover Biodiversity Nutrient Driver Etc. Climate Change Change Change Loss Loading

Energy Food Biodiversity Water Response Sector Supply Ecosystems

Human Health Economics Social Health Economics Social Impact

IPCC Millennium Assessment

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA examines trade-offs among services

Water availability Food supply and Freshwater supply and demand demand Water use and nutrient loss

s n d s io L n s a a e n Erosion and g is d 2 n tr O m a water flow a e ns C h f c 0 o c rm i e 2 a g r N tio lo tu , n o a 4 r r H d e C y p , H m N re te tu era mp Forest product supply te n & and demand tio L ta o Climate pi s i s c H re P o a s change f s b e c o i l g r t n n o a t o t a i p a h t l t o i c ta g b e s o n C s a t e h n H H e m t a e c a a n t g t b g i n a i it e c e r b a i f t in d il a c d h tr i s h a a v re n f n ns e a o g p r d s e i s e ra i s t t c o io y u L n d & e a R lbe do Biodiversity loss

Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA Working Groups

Condition Working Group What is the current condition Scenario Working Group and historical trends of ecosystems and their Given plausible changes in services? primary drivers, what will be the consequences for What have been the ecosystems, their services, consequences of changes in and human well-being? ecosystems for human well- being? Responses Working Group What can we do to enhance well-being and conserve ecosystems?

Sub-Global Assessment Working Group All of the above… at sub-global scales

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Northern Wisconsin Gorongosa Marromeu

Sweden

Urban Ecosystems: Sao Paulo

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA is a Multi-scale Assessment e.g., Southern Africa Millennium Assessment

SADC region 3 drainage basins Local assessments

Zambezi

Gariep

Source: Reyers, B., SAfMA Lessons Learned (Panama, June 2002) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Why a Multi-Scale Assessment? Expect that findings at any scale of a multi-scale assessment will be improved by information and perspectives from other scales

Rationale Global Assessment Users Characteristic scale of processes Regional Regional Development Greater resolution at smaller scales Banks, etc. Independent validation of National conclusions National Government Response options matched to the

scale where decision-making takes Local Local Community place

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA will provide: Baseline information for 2000

Areas of Rapid Land Cover Change

Led by Erika Lepers Department of Geography University of Louvain, Belgium

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA will provide: Baseline information for 2000

GNP Per Unit Area in Drylands 16% of world total in drylands

GNP Per Unit Area US$ 0 - 1,000 1,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,001 - 10,000,000

10,000,001 - Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA will: Guide international priorities

What are the highest priority areas to conserve for biodiversity? For Ecosystem services? What policies and actions concerning ecosystems can best contribute to the alleviation of poverty?

Does the growing human contribution to nitrogen and phosphorous cycles deserve international policy attention?

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA will: Inform national and private sector priorities and decisions

MA will help: Identify options to enhance development without undermining ecosystems Provide tools to evaluate the trade-offs involved in decisions concerning the environment Establish benchmarks Provide methodologies, e.g. Ecosystem scenarios Ecosystem service cost-benefit analyses National and sub-national integrated ecosystem assessments

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA will provide: Foresight regarding consequences of decisions

MA Scenarios: Global Orchestration focus on macro-scale policy reform for environmental sustainability Order from Strength retreat from global institutions, focus on national regulation and protectionism Adapting Mosaic retreat from global institutions, focus on strengthened local institutions and local learning Technogarden emphasis on development of technologies to substitute for ecosystem services

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Approach to quantifying the MA scenarios

Storylines Global Orchestration, Model Outputs Techno-garden, AIM etc. Global change Provisioning Services - Food (meat, fish, grain production) - Fiber (timber) - Freshwater (renewable IMAGE 2 WaterGAP water resources & World water withdrawals) Global change - Fuel wood (biofuels) resources Regulating - Climate regulation (C flux) - Air quality (NOx, S Model emissions) Inputs Supporting Demographic IMPACT primary production Economic World food Technological production

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment What will the MA publish?

First MA Report

Provides framework for linking ecosystems and development Presents methods and approaches for undertaking an integrated ecosystem assessment

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment What will the MA publish?

Assessment Reports (300-800 pages with 30 page Summaries for Decision-Makers) Summary Report (150(150 pages Pages) -- set of SDMs from CF and Assessment Reports)

Private General CBD UNCCD Ramsar Sector Audience

Synthesis Reports (30-60 page synthesis of key findings relevant to specific user audiences)

Plus: Sub-global assessments, methods, tools Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Government and Expert Review

Two rounds of review by governments and experts January 8 to March 19 June 7 to August 16 Government review requests sent to National Focal Points of CBD, UNCCD, Ramsar, CMS, and UNFCCC 800 Experts also invited to submit review comments Anyone can register to access the drafts and provide comments.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Government and Expert Review

All comments will be addressed by authors Independent Review Board (85 experts; chaired by José Sarukhán and Anne Whyte) will examine responses and determine whether the comments have been adequately addressed by authors

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MA Sponsors

Financial contributions In-kind contributions (~ $17 million) (~ $6 million) • Global Environment Facility • Norway • United Nations Foundation • China • Packard Foundation • India • World Bank • Japan • United Nations Environment Program • Germany • Government of Norway • Netherlands • Kingdom of Saudi Arabia • United States (NASA, USGS, ORNL, • NASA USDA) • ICSU • European Commission • Swedish International Biodiversity • FAO, UNDP, WHO, UNESCO, UNEP Programme • WorldFish Center, ICRAF • Christensen Fund • Numerous other countries, NGOs, • Canadian International Development Agency Universities and other institutions are supporting travel costs of experts • Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research • Rockefeller Foundation

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Visit the MA Website www.millenniumassessment.org

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment