HYDRO POLITICS- A CASE STUDY OF DIAMER BHASHA DAM (DBD), GILGIT BALTISTAN, PAKISTAN

By

MARYAM SHABBIR ABBASI

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Bahria University, Islamabad 2017 HYDRO POLITICS- A CASE STUDY OF DIAMER BHASHA DAM (DBD), GILGIT BALTISTAN, PAKISTAN

A thesis submitted to Bahria University, Islamabad in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of MS in Environmental Policy and Management

MARYAM SHABBIR ABBASI

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Bahria University, Islamabad 2017 CERTIFICATE OF ORIGINILITY This is to certify that the intellectual contents of the thesis HYDRO-POLITICS: A CASE STUDY OF DIAMER BHASHA DAM, GILGIT BALTISTAN, PAKISTAN are the product of my own research work except, as cited properly and accurately in the acknowledgements and references, the material taken from such sources as research papers, research journals, books, internet, etc. solely to support, elaborate, compare and extend the earlier work. Further, this work has not been submitted by me in the future for obtaining any degree from this University, or any other university or institution. The incorrectness of this information, if proved at any stage, shall authorities the University to cancel my degree.

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ABSTRACT

Water is very vital for domestic and agricultural use. Pakistan is an agricultural country. Pakistan has two large reservoirs i.e. Mangla and Tarbela dams whose capacity is decreasing due to sedimentation. Pakistan needs more reservoirs for the storage of water. Diamer Bhasha Dam (DBD) is a proposed project which was supposed to be completed in the year 2016. But due to various factors dam’s construction is delayed and cost has risen up with the passage of time. In current research key informant interviews were conducted with stakeholders to identify issues which are delaying the dam construction. Issues such as territory dispute between Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Gilgit Baltistan (GB), compensation among communities, and role of institutions to resolve these issues were discussed in this research. SWOT analysis was also carried out to identify weakness, strengths, opportunities and threats. Major concerns of stakeholders were identified. Their concerns showed that compensation should have been given on time to the communities and mistrust of the communities should have been overcome. Although stakeholders have tried their level best to resolve issues which are hindering construction of dam. Results of the study concluded that anti-dam lobbies are creating problem than local communities. Stakeholders suggested that if construction of Diamer Bhasha Dam is delayed further then government should move to alternate options. At the end strategy to resolve this conflict is given in detail.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

All praise to Allah Almighty who is the supreme power. I would like to show gratitude to my supervisor Prof. Dr. Muhammad Zafar, Earth and Environmental Sciences Department, Bahria University, Islamabad for his supervision during this research. I am grateful to Mr. Muhammad Khubaib Abuzar, Senior Assistant Professor, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bahria University Islamabad for his aspiring support. I would also extend my gratitude to Prof. Dr. Tehseen Ullah Khan, head of department, for his facilitation.

Last but not the least, I would like to thank my parents for their encouragement and constant support and our beloved fellow peers with whom I have shared some of the most memorable years of my life.

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ABBREVIATIONS

KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

DBD Diamer Bhasha Dam

KBD Kalabagh Dam

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

CCI Council of Common Interest

GB Gilgit Baltistan

WB The World Bank

ADB Asian Development Bank

IRSA Indus River System Authority

LCCI The Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry

PSDP The Public Sector Development Programme

SSP Sardar Sarovar Project

NBA Narmada Bachao Andolan

FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas

GDP Gross Domestic Product

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CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii ABBREVIATIONS iii FIGURES vii TABLES ix ANNEXES viii

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Need of electricity 6

1.2 Diamer Bhasha Dam-Background and project specifications 7

1.3 Objectives 10

CHAPTER 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS 12

CHAPTER 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

3.1 Financial issues of Diamer Bhasha Dam 14

3.2 Role of Institutions 16

3.3 Concerns of Stakeholders and conflicts 17

3.3 Social impacts 20

DISCUSSION 21 3.4 Comparison with Sardar Sarovar Project (SSP) in India 24 3.5 Strategy to resolve issue of Diamer Bhasha Dam 26

CONCLUSIONS 28

RECOMMENDATIONS 29

REFERENCES 30

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ANNEXES Annex 1: Key Informants from two tribes “Herban tribe” (Kohistan) & “Thor tribe” (Diamer) 37

Annex-2: Key informant Interviews from other stakeholders 39

Annex-3: Pictures with stakeholders 41

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FIGURES Page Figure 1. Layout of Project. 10

TABLES

Table 1. Annual Flow of Water from Rivers (MAF) in Pakistan 2

Table 2. Storage Capacity of Major Reservoirs in Pakistan 2

Table 3. Storage Projects in Pakistan 7

Table 4. 23 Stakeholders responses

Table 5. 23 Responses of Two Tribes

Table 6. 23 SWOT analysis based on stakeholders responses.

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