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The feasibility of reintroducing pine martens ( Martes martes ) to the Forest of Dean and lower Wye Valley May 2018 Authors: Stringer AP 1, MacPherson J2, Carter S2, Gill R 3, Ambrose-Oji B 3, Wilson R 4, Kelsall P 4, Feirn WG, Galbraith LC, Hilário CM, Parry G 1 & Taylor A 1. 1 Gloucestershire Wildlife Trust, Conservation Centre, Robinswood Hill Country Park, Reservoir Road, Gloucester, GL4 6SX. 2 The Vincent Wildlife Trust, 3 & 4 Bronsil Courtyard, Eastnor, Ledbury, Herefordshire, HR8 1EP. 3 Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham, Surrey, GU10 4LH. 4 Forestry Commission, Bank House, Bank Street, Coleford, Gloucestershire, GL16 8BA. Acknowledgements : We would like to thank Johnny Birks, Jonathan Spencer, Kevin Stannard, Lauren Harrington, Xavier Lambin, Emma Sheehy, Mike Townsend, Kat Walsh (and staff at Natural England), Henry Schofield, David Priddis, Roger Ransome, Freya Durham, Rob Lambert, Andrew Brook, members of the UK pine marten strategy group, and a number of local stakeholders for their in-depth and interesting discussions and review of the feasibility study. Many thanks to the volunteer group for all their hard work, and in particular to Ali Moss, Alex Blundell, and Nick Martin. The study is indebted to the British Society for Shooting and Conservation, and the National Gamekeepers Organisation, in particular Ian Danby, Sam Walker, and Julian Murray-Evans, for the collaborative survey of their members. We would also like to thank Bianca Ambrose-Oji, Michael Dunn, and Mark Atkinson for their time and effort on the accompanying report “Pine martens in the Forest of Dean: Stakeholder and public attitudes”. We would also like to thank ‘The Dutch National Database Flora and Fauna’ for their help. Finally, we would like to thank Forest Holidays and the Woodland Trust for their generous support. Cover photo © Nick Martin. 1 Contents List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... 3 List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 5 1. Project goals and justification ................................................................................................... 7 2. Legal review ............................................................................................................................. 9 3. The biological feasibility of a pine marten reintroduction ........................................................ 10 3.1 The biology and habitat requirements of pine martens ................................................................. 10 3.2 Habitat map .................................................................................................................................... 18 3.3 Road mortality ................................................................................................................................ 29 3.4 Ground truthing of habitat maps .................................................................................................... 37 3.5 Release area criteria ....................................................................................................................... 43 3.6 Ecological Carrying Capacity and Population Viability Analysis ...................................................... 44 3.7 Dispersal potential .......................................................................................................................... 51 3.8 Provenance and genetic considerations ......................................................................................... 58 4. The ecological feasibility of a pine marten reintroduction........................................................ 60 4.1 Potential ecological benefits ........................................................................................................... 60 4.2 Ecological risk assessment .............................................................................................................. 62 5. The socio-economic feasibility of a pine marten reintroduction ............................................... 80 5.1 Potential socio-economic benefits.................................................................................................. 80 5.2 Socio-economic risks ....................................................................................................................... 85 5.3 Attitudes to pine marten reintroduction ........................................................................................ 87 6. Conclusions and recommendations ......................................................................................... 92 References ............................................................................................................................................ 94 2 List of Figures Figure 1. Forest of Dean and lower Wye Valley habitat map for pine martens.. ................................. 22 Figure 2. Changes in oak diameter at breast height with respect to age ............................................. 23 Figure 3. Pine marten natal den site availability map showing potential denning areas within the Forest of Dean main block ............................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 4. Landscape scale habitat connectivity in south Wales and western England based on percentage woodland cover within 1km 2 squares. .............................................................................. 27 Figure 5. Landscape resistance map showing the difficulty pine martens may have in traversing different landscape types. .................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 6. Motorway and primary road density in the Netherlands ...................................................... 31 Figure 7. Motorway and primary road density in the UK ..................................................................... 32 Figure 8. All Risky Roads and High-Risk Roads in the release region .................................................... 34 Figure 9. Dominant ground cover across plots within the Forest of Dean ........................................... 39 Figure 10. Fox density estimates for sites in the UK ............................................................................. 41 Figure 11. The effect of ecological carrying capacity on extinction risk ............................................... 48 Figure 12. The change in the risk of population extinction over time .................................................. 48 Figure 13. Effect of multiple populations and migration between those populations on the index of extinction risk ........................................................................................................................................ 49 Figure 14. a) Metapopulation extinction risk over 50 years with and without a Forest of Dean reintroduction. b) Extinction risk over 20 years (before expected significant migration between populations) for the Forest of Dean population ................................................................................... 49 Figure 15. Influence of a) home range size (determined by minimum range resource), b) Minimum habitat value to be eligible for a home range, c) displacement distance (determined by juvenile dispersal), on Hexsim model outcomes. ............................................................................................... 54 Figure 16. Hexsim model predictions of 2012 pine marten range in Scotland .................................... 55 Figure 17. Predicting pine marten range in 30 years if reintroduction projects are successful. ......... 56 Figure 18. Corine land cover map of The Vincent Wildlife Trust release area in central Wales. ......... 81 Figure 19. Corine land cover map for the Forest of Dean and lower Wye Valley. ............................... 81 Figure 20. Corine Land cover map for central Netherlands area between Utrecht and Amersfoort ... 82 Figure 21. Multiple years of bark stripping by grey squirrels on a young oak tree .............................. 83 3 Figure 22. Results from public opinion surveys in the Forest of Dean and Wye Valley ....................... 88 Figure 23. Responders to survey of BASC and the NGO members asked, ‘Please select the options that best describe you (multiple answers may apply)?’ ............................................................................... 89 List of Tables Table 1. The proportion of different food groups within pine marten diet ......................................... 13 Table 2. Areas of suitable pine marten habitat .................................................................................... 23 Table 3. Numbers of pine marten killed on different road types in the Netherlands .......................... 33 Table 4. Abundance of rodents within pine marten habitat across Europe in comparison to the Forest of Dean. ................................................................................................................................................. 40 Table 5. Ecological carrying capacity in the release region as estimated by the abundance of suitable habitat, density,
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