Low-Cost Shale Gas Gives North American Petrochemical Producers Advantages Over Europe
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Low-Cost Shale Gas Gives North American Petrochemical Producers Advantages Over Europe Primary Credit Analysts: Cynthia M Werneth, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-7819; [email protected] Paulina Grabowiec, London (44) 20-7176-7051; [email protected] Secondary Contacts: David Fisher, Toronto (1) 416-507-2541; [email protected] Oliver Kroemker, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-160; [email protected] Paul J Kurias, New York (1) 212-438-3486; [email protected] Daniel S Krauss, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-2641; [email protected] Table Of Contents U.S. Shale Gas Is Fueling Large Capacity Increases North America Retains Cost Advantages North American Producers: Low Costs And Changing Dynamics Shape Credit Quality European Companies: Specialization And Geographic Diversity Counter Higher Costs Credit Stability Is Likely To Prevail In Both Regions Related Research And Criteria WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT APRIL 23, 2013 1 1120286 | 301859358 Low-Cost Shale Gas Gives North American Petrochemical Producers Advantages Over Europe The March IHS World Petrochemical Conference in Houston touched on several themes that Standard & Poor's Ratings Services believes could have important implications for the credit quality of chemical producers in North America and Europe. A key takeaway was that North American petrochemical producers will likely continue to benefit for the next several years from low-cost feedstocks derived from shale gas. However, producers in other regions, notably Europe, will probably remain at a cost disadvantage. This is consistent with our views. Chemical consulting firm IHS, the sponsor of the conference, voiced increased caution, however, about the potential for global oversupply of certain petrochemicals later this decade, when significant capacity is slated to come online. North American producers' favorable cost positions played an important role in several of our recent ratings upgrades, as did our belief that our ratings on these companies can withstand the industry downturn we expect. And, despite the challenges that European chemical manufacturers face, we have stable outlooks on most of them. This indicates our belief that many will undertake profit improvement measures. Several also benefit from geographic diversity and a specialty chemical orientation, where other factors in addition to cost position contribute to their success. Nevertheless, rating pressure on European chemical companies could increase in coming years. Overview • The IHS World Petrochemical Conference underscored the advantages over Europe that cheap shale gas is giving North American petrochemical producers. • Credit quality is likely to remain stable for most North American petrochemical companies, but potential changing industry dynamics are worth watching. • European companies face a cost disadvantage in global markets, but most have been able to maintain credit stability through specialization and increased geographical diversity. U.S. Shale Gas Is Fueling Large Capacity Increases Following more than a decade without any major capacity expansions in the U.S., the availability of plentiful, low-cost natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the shale gas boom has spurred significant capacity increases. According to IHS, the U.S. petrochemical industry plans to add 40 million metric tons of new capacity in 20 key products by 2018, and IHS estimates that the U.S. could add another 45 million by 2030. The largest addition is likely to be in the ethylene chain, which could represent a 60% increase to the currently installed base by 2030. IHS reckons that investment through 2030 could total nearly $120 billion. Substantial though they are, these planned capacity additions in the U.S. represent only a fraction of those planned globally, with significant capacity likely to be added in the Middle East (the lowest-cost region) and Asia (where demand is growing fastest). WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT APRIL 23, 2013 2 1120286 | 301859358 Low-Cost Shale Gas Gives North American Petrochemical Producers Advantages Over Europe It remains to be seen whether all the announced capacity will be built. But even if, as IHS assumes, global GDP grows by 3.5% in 2013 and continues to grow at close to that pace for the next few years, with demand for petrochemicals increasing at a similar rate, global capacity growth could exceed demand growth with the addition of significant new capacity around 2017. Using ethylene--the largest petrochemical by volume--as a proxy for the industry, IHS now estimates that average operating rates will remain below 90%, with higher rates in low-cost regions and lower rates in high-cost regions. However, IHS does not expect the industry to overbuild into a deep trough. North America Retains Cost Advantages The shale gas boom has been a boon to the U.S. petrochemical industry by lowering input costs and, by proximity, to Canadian producers that are also able to source low-cost feedstocks. This has pushed North American production down the global cost curve, just above the Middle East and well below Europe and Asia. Natural gas-derived feedstocks are the source for most North American petrochemical production, as opposed to oil in much of the rest of the world. Energy is another important input cost in petrochemical production, and cheaper natural gas has also lowered North American production costs. Although the oil to gas ratio may narrow somewhat, both IHS and Standard & Poor's expect it to remain above historical levels, favoring users of NGLs. In addition, IHS expects the supply of NGLs to be sufficient to support all announced petrochemical projects. It also forecasts a continued gap between U.S. and international natural gas prices, although the differential may be a bit narrower than it has been the last few years. All these factors should ensure continuation of a lower cost of production in North America compared with all other regions except the Middle East. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT APRIL 23, 2013 3 1120286 | 301859358 Low-Cost Shale Gas Gives North American Petrochemical Producers Advantages Over Europe Chart 1 North American petrochemical manufacturers and other types of companies that benefit from low natural-gas costs (such as fertilizer producers) should enjoy prosperity during the next few years as global demand for their products increases and before they complete their capacity additions. Toward the end of this decade, when new capacity starts up, markets are apt to become more competitive, but we believe these companies should retain their favorable cost position and therefore remain profitable. However, for most companies we see credit risks potentially arising in three main areas: export capability, capital spending, and mergers and acquisitions (M&A). And the shale gas phenomenon has placed a handful of other companies at a disadvantage because they are heavy users of intermediate chemicals—such as butadiene—that were in greater supply when petrochemical producers were cracking more oil-based feedstocks. Export capability With the building of large new petrochemical projects in the U.S., supply additions will likely outpace domestic demand growth. Consequently, much of the new production will be destined for export from the U.S., either as chemicals or finished goods. In fact, IHS predicts that one-third to half of global production will ultimately travel between countries. This will place increasing importance on supply chain, transportation, and distribution; marketing proficiency and reach; and supportive policies governing international trade. These issues will be particularly important for companies such as chloralkali and vinyl producer Axiall Corp. The U.S. vinyl industry already relies on WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT APRIL 23, 2013 4 1120286 | 301859358 Low-Cost Shale Gas Gives North American Petrochemical Producers Advantages Over Europe overseas markets, exporting about 30% of production. But a U.S. housing comeback would help to boost domestic demand. Nitrogen fertilizer is an important exception to this general trend of greater reliance on export markets. We believe that any increase in U.S. production would displace imports, which we believe constitute roughly 50% of the U.S. market. Several issuers we rate plan to expand their nitrogen production capacity through de-bottlenecking and brownfield expansions, and possibly through greenfield projects, but Agrium Inc.'s management estimates that it would require 12 to 14 new North American nitrogen facilities to displace all offshore nitrogen imports into the U.S. Capital spending World-scale petrochemical projects are typically multi-billion dollar investments and take years to complete. It would therefore be particularly risky for companies to incur significant debt to finance these projects and then complete them at around the same time, resulting in competitive pricing. For this reason, it's worth comparing the capital spending plans of some of the leading U.S. producers. • Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. LLC repaid essentially all its book debt last year in connection with a change in its ownership. Although there is substantial debt at some of its Middle Eastern joint ventures, it is embarking on U.S. Gulf Coast petrochemical investments in good financial health and plans to finance them with internally generated cash flow or parent investment. • LyondellBasell Industries N.V. has thus far refrained from announcing any major