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Empirical Analysis of Urban Sprawl in Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas Using Satellite Imagery, 1986-2016

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Empirical Analysis of Urban Sprawl in Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas Using Satellite Imagery, 1986-2016 Western University Scholarship@Western Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository 7-23-2019 9:00 AM Empirical Analysis of Urban Sprawl in Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas using Satellite Imagery, 1986-2016 Xiaoxuan Sun The University of Western Ontario Supervisor Wang, Jinfei The University of Western Ontario Co-Supervisor Mok, Diana The University of Western Ontario Graduate Program in Geography A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the equirr ements for the degree in Master of Science © Xiaoxuan Sun 2019 Follow this and additional works at: https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/etd Part of the Remote Sensing Commons Recommended Citation Sun, Xiaoxuan, "Empirical Analysis of Urban Sprawl in Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas using Satellite Imagery, 1986-2016" (2019). Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository. 6394. https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/etd/6394 This Dissertation/Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by Scholarship@Western. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository by an authorized administrator of Scholarship@Western. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Abstract Many Canadian cities have experienced rapid sprawl over the last 30 years. This dissertation presents two studies that empirically examine the causes of urban sprawl, merging census socioeconomics data and satellite imageries of 11 major Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). The monocentric city model and the Tiebout model are the main traditional theories explaining urban boundary changes and residential mobility. The first study focuses on a cross-sectional comparison among the 11 CMAs in 2016. The second study zooms into the Toronto CMA and examine the longitudinal changes in its urban coverage at its fringes. The land cover/use changes are detected within the Toronto CMA from 1986 to 2016. In both studies, the role of price risk is inserted in understanding the timing of urban development. In doing so, both studies aim to contribute to the literature by broadening the traditional theories to include the role of risk as it influences urban development. Keywords Urban sprawl, Remote Sensing, monocentric city model, Canadian Metropolitan Areas i Summary for Lay Audience Urban sprawl is one of the most important issues facing most cities around the world. Many Canadian cities have experienced rapid sprawl over the last 30 years. This dissertation presents two studies that empirically examine the causes of urban sprawl, merging census socioeconomics data and satellite imageries of 11 major Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) in 1986, 2006 and 2016. Two branches of traditional theories of urban sprawl, the monocentric city model and the Tiebout model, are used to explain urban boundary changes. The first empirical study focuses on a cross-sectional comparison among the 11 CMAs and attempts to study the role of price risk in influencing the extent of urban coverage expansion outside of the cities covered by the CMA boundaries. The second study focuses on the largest CMA in Canada, Toronto, and examine the longitudinal changes in its urban coverage at its fringes. The land cover/use changes are detected within the Toronto CMA for 1986-2006 and 2006-2016. The 1986, 2006 and 2016 satellite imageries are matched with residents’ socioeconomic data from the corresponding census, forming a panel data set, based on Dissemination Areas, for the Toronto CMA. Similar to the first study, price risk is included as a variable to understand the timing of urban development. In doing so, both studies aim to contribute to the literature by broadening the traditional theories to include the role of risk in influencing urban development. ii Co-Authorship Statement I am responsible for nearly all data collection and experiments and conducted all statistical analyses and writing of the manuscript. Dr. Jinfei Wang and Dr. Diana Mok assisted with study design and improved the manuscript. In Chapter 3, Diana helped record sales data from the TREB. Matthew J. Roffey collected Landsat 5 satellite data of 1986 and 2005 and processed image classification. iii Acknowledgments I would like to first thank my supervisors, Dr. Jinfei Wang and Dr. Diana Mok, for their guidance and support throughout my two-year journey as a master’s student. They have been available to communicate whenever I needed assistance. Jinfei has provided many comments regarding my work and words of encouragement. Diana has taught me a lot about economics and has inspired me throughout my studies. I will treasure many memories with them forever. I am grateful to have had the opportunities to present my studies in Washington and Winnipeg at AAG and CAG, respectively. I would also like to thank the members of our GITA Lab and the Department of Geography administration team. I have had a wonderful time working with you. Finally, I must thank all my friends and family. I would not have finished this thesis without them. Thanks to my parents, who have provided both financial and moral support to me. Most special thanks to my boyfriend, Ning Liu. Your love and support have always encouraged me and given me the confidence to be who I am. iv Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................ i Summary for Lay Audience ................................................................................................ ii Co-Authorship Statement................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. iv Table of Contents ................................................................................................................ v List of Tables ................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... x List of Appendices ............................................................................................................ xii List of Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................................. 1 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research contents.................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research objectives ................................................................................................. 4 1.3 Study area and data ................................................................................................. 5 1.4 Thesis organization ................................................................................................. 9 1.5 References ............................................................................................................... 9 2 Testing Theories of Urban Sprawl Using Sentinel-2 Imagery: A Cross-sectional Comparison among 11 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas .................................... 12 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 12 2.1.1 Background ............................................................................................... 12 2.1.2 Previous studies and theories .................................................................... 15 2.2 Data and variables ................................................................................................. 17 2.2.1 Study Area ................................................................................................ 17 2.2.2 Data ........................................................................................................... 17 2.2.3 Variables ................................................................................................... 24 v 2.3 Methods and Empirical Strategy ........................................................................... 26 2.3.1 Data Pre-processing .................................................................................. 26 2.3.2 Image Classification.................................................................................. 27 2.3.3 Empirical Strategy .................................................................................... 29 2.4 Results and Discussion ......................................................................................... 31 2.4.1 Land Cover/Use Estimates ........................................................................ 31 2.4.2 Statistical Analysis .................................................................................... 33 2.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 35 2.6 References ............................................................................................................. 36 3 Analysis of Urban Sprawl in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area Using Panel Data from 1986 to 2016 ........................................................................................................ 39 3.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................
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