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Air Quality and Climate Change: a UK Perspective

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Air Quality and Climate Change: a UK Perspective AIR QUALITY EXPERT GROUP Air Quality and Climate Change: A UK Perspective Published for: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Prepared for: DepartmentScottish Executive;for Environment, Welsh Food Assembly and Rural Government; Affairs; and ScottishDepartment Executive; of Welsh the Environment Assembly Government; in Northern and Ireland Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland AIR QUALITY EXPERT GROUP Air Quality and Climate Change: A UK Perspective Prepared for: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Scottish Executive; Welsh Assembly Government; and Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland This is the third report produced by the Air Quality Expert Group © Crown copyright 2007 Copyright in the typographical arrangement and design rests with the Crown. This publication (excluding departmental logos) may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium provided that it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Crown copyright with the title and source of the publication specified. Further copies of the publication are available from: Defra Publications Admail 6000 London SW1A 2XX Telephone: 08459 556000, Fax 01709 881673 e-mail: [email protected] This document is also available on the AQEG website at: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/airquality/aqeg Published by the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Printed in March 2007 on material that contains a minimum of 100% recycled fibre for uncoated paper and 75% recycled fibre for coated paper. Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Nobel House 17 Smith Square London SW1P 3JR Telephone: 020 7238 6000 Product code PB12489 ISBN 0-85521-172-5 The three photographs on the front cover are reproduced with kind permission from Jon Bower (Apexphotos). United Kingdom air quality information received from the automatic monitoring sites and forecasts may be accessed via the following media: The Air Pollution Information Service 0800 556677 TELETEXT page 156 Internet http://www.airquality.co.uk http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/airquality/ Terms of Reference The Air Quality Expert Group (AQEG) was set-up in 2001, to provide independent scientific advice on air quality, in particular the air pollutants contained in the Air Quality Strategy (AQS) for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and those covered by the EU Directive on ambient air quality assessment and management (the Air Quality Framework Directive). AQEG replaces the Airborne Particles Expert Group, who published their report on ‘Source apportionment of airborne particulate matter in the UK’ in January 1999. AQEG reports to the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Scottish Ministers, the National Assembly for Wales and the Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland (the Government and Devolved Administrations). AQEG is an advisory non-departmental public body in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. In terms of the Scotland Act 1998, the Group is a jointly established body. AQEG’s main functions are: • to give advice to ministers on levels, sources and characteristics of air pollutants in the UK • to assess the extent of exceedences of Air Quality Strategy objectives and proposed objectives, EU limit values and proposed or possible objectives and limit values, where monitoring data is not available • to analyse trends in pollutant concentrations • to assess current and future ambient concentrations of air pollutants in the UK • to suggest potential priority areas for future research aimed at providing a better understanding of the issues that need to be addressed in setting air quality objectives. The Group will not give approval for products or equipment. Further information on AQEG can be found on the Group’s website at: http://www.defra.gov. uk/environment/airquality/aqeg. Information on these pages includes the dates, agendas, and minutes of meetings as they become available, a list of the members, the Register of Interests, and draft and final reports as they become available. iii Membership Chair Professor Mike Pilling School of Chemistry, University of Leeds Members Professor Helen ApSimon Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London Dr David Carruthers Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants (CERC) Dr David Carslaw Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds Dr Roy Colvile Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London Professor Dick Derwent OBE rdscientific Dr Steve Dorling School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia (UEA) Professor Bernard Fisher Environmental Policy Centre for Risk and Forecasting, Environment Agency Professor Roy Harrison OBE Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management, University of Birmingham Dr Mathew Heal School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh Professor Duncan Laxen Air Quality Consultants Ltd Dr Sarah Lindley School of Environment and Development, University of Manchester Dr Ian McCrae Environment Group, TRL Limited (Transport Research Laboratory) John Stedman AEA Energy & Environment Ad-hoc members Professor Mike Ashmore Department of Environment, University of York Dr Bill Collins Hadley Centre, Met Office iv Dr Jim Haywood Hadley Centre, Met Office Dr Mike Jenkin Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London Dr Peter Woods Analytical Science Group, National Physical Laboratory Ex Officio members Central Management and Control Unit of the automatic urban and rural networks: Stephen Moorcroft, Air Quality Consultants Ltd (representing Bureau Veritas) National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory: Dr Tim Murrells and Melanie Hobson, AEA Energy & Environment Non-automatic hydrocarbon monitoring networks and metals monitoring network: Dr Paul Quincey, Analytical Science Group, National Physical Laboratory Quality Assurance and Quality Control of the automatic urban network and the Non-automatic monitoring networks: Ken Stevenson, AEA Energy & Environment Assessors and Observers Mr Barry McAuley Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland Professor Bob Maynard Department of Health/Health Protection Agency Dr Havard Prosser Welsh Assembly Government Dr Geeta Wonnacott Scottish Executive Secretariat Dr Sarah Honour Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Ms Ingrid Holmes (Secretariat from September 2004 to May 2005) Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Mr Noel Nelson Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Mr John Rea Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Mr Tim Williamson Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs v Acknowledgments The Group would like to acknowledge the following individuals and organisations for their help in the preparation of this report. Dr Steven Utembe (Imperial College London) for contributions to the TORCH trajectory modelling calculations reported in Chapter 4. Professor Alastair Lewis and co-workers (University of York) for provision of the TORCH isoprene and temperature data reported in Chapter 4. Yvonne Li at AEA Energy & Environment for her contribution to Chapter 5 in areas focusing on emissions. Taru Jusilla for her help in compiling the consultation document. Kate Sugden for her help in preparing both the main report and the summary for publication. Dr Marcus Amann (IIASA), Professor Øystein Hov (Norwegian Meteorological Institute) and Professor Keith Shine (Reading University) for their helpful comments on the draft version of this report. vi Table of contents Page No. Executive summary 1 Chapter 1: Introduction 9 1.1 Background 9 1.2 Requirements and scope of this report 10 1.3 Air quality and climate change 13 1.4 Structure of the report 14 Chapter 2: Scientific background 16 2.1 Introduction 16 2.2 Climate change 16 2.2.1 Radiative forcing 16 2.2.2 Quantification of radiative forcing and Global Warming Potentials 19 2.2.2.1 Carbon dioxide 21 2.2.2.2 Methane 22 2.2.2.3 Nitrous oxide 23 2.2.2.4 Halocarbons 23 2.2.2.5 Tropospheric ozone 23 2.2.2.6 Aerosol 24 2.3 Climate modelling 24 2.3.1 Climate models 24 2.3.2 Atmospheric chemistry models 28 2.3.3 Emissions scenarios 30 2.3.4 Feedbacks 33 2.3.5 Regional modelling 35 2.3.6 Current predictions 37 2.4 Tropospheric chemistry 38 2.4.1 Impact of tropospheric chemistry on greenhouse gases 38 2.4.2 Chemical mechanisms in the troposphere 40 2.5 Air quality issues and links to climate change 42 2.5.1 Local and regional pollution controls and their ramifications for climate change 42 2.5.2 Climate change and its ramifications for local and regional air quality 45 Chapter 3: The role of air quality pollutants in climate change 48 Key points 48 3.1 Introduction 52 3.2 Interactions between air quality pollutants and greenhouse gases, and quantification of the resulting radiative forcing of climate 55 3.2.1 Tropospheric photochemistry and ozone 57 3.2.1.1 Ozone as a greenhouse gas 57 3.2.1.2 Indirect radiative forcing from ozone precursor emissions 59 vii 3.2.2 Aerosols 62 3.2.2.1 Importance of primary and secondary aerosols for air quality and climate change 62 3.2.1.3 Chemistry of secondary aerosol formation 66 3.2.1.4 Possible trends in the rates of secondary aerosol formation processes 68 3.2.1.5 Determination of the number of particles 69 3.2.1.6 Direct effect of black aerosols on climate 70 3.2.1.7 The direct effect of white aerosols on climate 73 3.2.1.8 Indirect effect of aerosols and other cloud forcings (including contrails) 76 3.2.3 Effects of air quality on climate via impacts on ecosystems
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