In the Shadow of Revolution: A Decade of Authoritarian Hardening in Azerbaijan* Cory Welt George Washington University
[email protected] July 2014 WORKING PAPER * For citation as a working paper. 1 Over the last ten years, Azerbaijan’s ranking on the “democracy index” of the U.S.-based nongovernmental organization Freedom House has reflected the country’s slide from a “semi- consolidated” authoritarian regime to a “consolidated” authoritarian one.1 This change in regime type has not come suddenly. It has been the result of a gradual hardening of authoritarian governance since 2003, the year Ilham Aliyev became president. It might be difficult at first to grasp the significance of this shift in classification. Azerbaijan was hardly democratic under President Aliyev’s father, Heydar Aliyev, from 1993 to 2003. During the senior Aliyev’s rule, however, the regime allowed at least some freedom to civil society and media. Since then, the regime has become increasingly authoritarian across all indicators, but the collapse of space for nongovernmental forces to engage freely in the public sphere has been especially pronounced. Azerbaijan’s slide into consolidated authoritarianism has coincided with a decade of regime change from below in Azerbaijan’s two neighborhoods of post-Soviet Eurasia and the Middle East. From the color revolutions of 2003-2005 to the Arab Spring of 2010-2011 and Ukraine’s EuroMaidan of 2013-2014, the Azerbaijani government repeatedly has witnessed the fall of less consolidated authoritarian governments all around it. While it is difficult to determine precisely how much the power of these examples has contributed to Azerbaijan’s authoritarian hardening, a few connections are clear.