China A-Shares Growth Fund Class I (USD)
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William Blair SICAV - China A-Shares Growth Fund Class I (USD) Portfolio Review March 2021 Casey K. Preyss, CFA, Partner Vivian Lin Thurston, CFA, Partner ISIN: LU2041878864 Portfolio Managers FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY Summary & Outlook March 2021 Market Review rollout, supporting outperformance (the MSCI UK gained +6.34% in the quarter). Investor sentiment was bolstered Global equities advanced in the first quarter (the MSCI on positive economic data, specifically the Eurozone ACWI IMI gained +5.14% in USD terms) amid increased manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) which optimism of vaccine rollouts and gradual reopening of rose to its record high level (62.5) as business activity economies. The prospect of a return to normality coupled rebounded in March. with an improving outlook for a strong economic recovery drove a sharp style rotation out of defensive technology Emerging markets underperformed on a relative basis names in favor of value-oriented stocks which had (MSCI EM IMI +2.86%) primarily driven by weakness in underperformed in 2020. This style rotation was evident in Latin America (-5.12%) and China (0.00%). Within Latin global sector performance, as Energy (+18.57%) and America, Brazil weighed on performance primarily due to a Financials (+11.99%) significantly outperformed, while resurgence in new Covid infections, higher inflation Consumer Staples (-0.13%) and Health Care (+0.30%) expectations and currency headwinds (the MSCI Brazil IMI underperformed on a relative basis. declined 9.48% in US dollars and 1.65% in local terms). Despite strong returns to start the year, Chinese equities US equities gained (+6.18% as measured by the MSCI USA plunged in mid-February amid dampened investor IMI) as investors welcomed news of additional federal sentiment over elevated valuations and concern over spending to revive the economy. The $1.9 trillion Covid tightening liquidity. relief plan introduced by the newly inaugurated Biden administration promised additional stimulus for eligible individuals as well as increased support for the national Performance vaccination program. Towards the end of the quarter, President Biden also introduced a $2 trillion infrastructure Performance for the quarter was driven by weaker stock plan which emphasized the need to upgrade roads and selection within the Consumer Staples and Industrial bridges in the US, while also seeking to address climate sectors. Within Industrials, Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic change. weighed on performance amid profit taking following an exceptionally strong run in 2020. Jiangsu Hengli European equities advanced (+4.25% as measured by the Hydraulic’s core business of manufacturing hydraulic MSCI Europe IMI) despite a third wave of infections leading cylinders continues to grow from market share gains and to new lockdown measures across several major European sustained product demand, even as it expands into adjacent countries. The UK has been one of the few exceptions product categories in valves and pumps. Within the within Europe that has had some success with the vaccine Consumer Staples sector, food products company Foshan Summary & Outlook March 2021 Haitian Flavouring detracted from performance. Foshan Positioning Haitian Flavouring is the largest Chinese soy sauce producer. The share price declined alongside China During the quarter Communication Services exposure was consumer staple peers amid profit taking following a strong increased through the purchase on Mango Excellent Media. run in 2020. We believe Haitian will continue to deliver Mango is one of a handful of new media platforms in China robust growth and returns given its leadership in the fast- with leadership in developing variety shows. The key growing and highly-fragmented seasoning and sauce opportunity with Mango is its growing 200-million- industry, strong brands, broadening distribution channels, member base and the potential to monetize this group and solid management. further over time. Financials exposure also increased primarily due to market appreciation, specifically strong These effects offset positive stock selection within performance from China Merchants Bank. Conversely, Financials and Materials. Within Financials, Bank of Ningbo Health Care exposure was reduced through the liquidations stands out for its focused strategy—much like a traditional of Hualan Biological Engineering and Autobio Diagnostics. regional bank. It hires local people with good knowledge and contacts in the region's marketplace, complemented by Outlook good customer service. The bank has been effective developing relationships with the local government and The economy and stock market are behaving as expected small businesses. The share price advanced in the first thus far in 2021. We’ve been referring to the post- quarter following strong FY20 results, as net profit growth pandemic economy as the “Mother of All Recoveries” accelerated in Q4 driven by lower provisions on stable (MOFAR), with yearly growth at a level not seen in decades. credit quality. Materials stock selection was bolstered by And we expect this recovery/expansion cycle to ultimately Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology. Yuhong is be measured in years not months or quarters. the market leader in China’s highly fragmented waterproof Unlike the post-GFC recovery, this cycle will likely be materials sector and should benefit from industry driven by domestic demand, not relying on China’s stimulus consolidation driven by environmental reforms. Building to drive the global economy. code standards are migrating toward parity with developed markets in China, which should benefit Yuhong as roughly As we pass the one-year anniversary of the first several 75% of products sold in China are counterfeit or of weeks of the 2020 global lockdowns, we are seeing questionable quality. evidence of strong business and consumer activity with PMIs showing significant growth acceleration in the US and Europe, and consumer spending accelerating in kind. This Summary & Outlook March 2021 continues from the already strong sequential growth stocks are typically cheap relative to the rest of the stock demonstrated in the latter part of last year. market. This economic activity naturally leads to concerns about That is precisely what we began to see in the middle of the inflation and interest rates. We believe that while inflation fourth quarter, post the announcement of vaccine must increase from depressed levels, it will be driven by approvals and the result of the US presidential election. healthy growth and will likely remain in a manageable The market was collectively relieved enough to start range of +2%-3%, without much risk of overshooting. pricing in strong economic growth. This has continued Think of this as reflation back to normal long-term historic apace in 2021, as mentioned previously. levels, rather than overheating to levels of concern. With higher interest rates, the value of future corporate In a related manner, interest rates should continue to creep cash flows are reduced as well; and as expected, we are up as well, but again this is a bounce from unusually low seeing the valuation multiples of long-duration earners levels, or what can be characterized as a “reasonable” move contract. The result is a tempering of the multiple gap in rates. between classic Growth stocks as compared to Value stocks. Broad-based, abundant growth also reduces the For corporations, the focus will be on earnings growth and scarcity premium for those special companies who are in leverage to the economic cycle. While consensus earnings greater control of their own destiny regardless of the estimates have been inching up, we believe analysts largely economic climate. Many observers have commented about under-appreciate the magnitude of profit growth we will the unsustainably wide margin between the two, and it is see this year. not surprising to now see a bit of a contraction. Cyclical areas of the economy—consumer and industrial This current relationship between the economy and style alike—will likely have the greatest upside potential to performance is consistent with past cycles, and thus we estimates this year. Industrial sectors like machinery and believe it will be a difficult period for our investment style building products, and consumer services such as travel which targets companies with high and sustainable long- and leisure are most interesting to us. term growth. Most of our investment strategies underperformed their broad core benchmarks during the It’s important to put this into context of what the market quarter but fared much better compared to growth indices. expects in the form of valuations. In an economic recovery the market typically rewards economically-sensitive stocks, As the economy moves from recovery to expansion, these with little regard to earnings quality or longevity. These Summary & Outlook March 2021 headwinds should become much more manageable. We look forward to the Mother of All Recoveries quickly giving way to what might be the Mother of All Expansions. Market Performance March 2021 QTD 2020 2019 2018 AC World (DM+EM) 5.1 16.3 26.4 -10.1 Developed Markets (DM) 5.5 15.9 27.5 -9.4 Japan 1.9 13.1 19.6 -13.5 Europe ex UK 3.6 12.1 25.0 -15.7 UK 6.3 -9.0 23.2 -15.0 USA 6.2 20.5 30.4 -5.7 Emerging Markets (EM) 2.9 18.4 17.6 -15.0 Asia 2.9 28.5 17.8 -15.9 China 0.0 29.4 22.7 -18.7 India 6.9 16.1 5.3 -11.2 Regions Korea 1.8 46.0 9.6 -20.6 Taiwan 10.7 39.1 35.2 -10.1 EMEA 8.1 -5.6 15.8 -16.8 Russia 6.0 -11.6 50.1 -1.4