Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

NORTH RUSTICO, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This work was funded by Natural Resources Canada’s Regional Adaptation Collaborative (RAC) and by the PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice. Climate change vulnerability assessments were guided by Weather, Climate Change and My Community: A Planning Workbook (2011), created by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Memorial University (St. John’s, NL), Professional Municipal Administrators, and Municipalities Newfoundland and Labrador.

This work would not have been possible without the enthusiastic participation of the municipal council and residents of North Rustico. Their commitment to climate change adaptation has set a standard for other Island communities. In particular, we thank Mr. Fred Doiron, Mr. Robbie Doiron, Mr. David Gallant, Ms. Gail Gallant, Mr. Giles Gallant, Ms. Jane Marie Gallant, Ms. Patsy Gamauf, Ms. Nancy Gauthier, Ms. Ann Kirk, Mr. Allan Nisbet, and Mr. Les Standen. Their collaborative efforts were invaluable. We also thank the following residents of North Rustico and surrounding areas, who graciously shared their insights via personal interview: Mr. Vance Court, Mr. Emard Court, Mr. Don Gallant, Mr. Gary Gallant, Mr. Merlin Gallant, Mr. Joey Gauthier, Mr. Joe Perry, Mr. John Peters, and Mr. Norman Peters. The North Rustico Seniors Club, and the Grade 7 to 9 students at the Gulf Shore School, also made valuable contributions.

STORIES OF WEATHER AND CHANGE North Rustico and area residents share memorable climate related events from the past

Vance and Emard Court (Figure 1) of Rustico Harbour recall:

• how the Rustico Harbour area was actually an island. When their father (Beecher Court) was 10 years old (approx. 1898), small dories used to sail into the harbour where the Breakwater Road is currently located. • many storms over the years of their memory. There was a bad storm in the mid 1960s that did a lot of damage. This storm occurred during a high tide and resulted in buildings and boats being flooded in the harbour area. If the water had risen an inch higher the water from this storm would have been inside their house. • December 21, 2010, storm surge. Water flooded

the area around their house and several other Figure 1 - Vance and Emard Court of Rustico buildings in the area. Vance Court and his wife Harbour stand in front of the historic North Rustico Harbour Lighthouse (photo credit: D. Jardine). Alice were away that day and tried to return home, but couldn’t access Harbour View Drive. They were forced to stay at a motel in Brackley for the night. The peak water level during this storm was over 30 centimetres (12 inches) above the floor at the Sea Gulls Nest Gift Shop. • a decrease in local sea ice. They believe that anyone under 30 years of age hasn’t seen a real snow storm or sea ice. “Nowadays,” Vance Court stated, “you couldn’t find enough ice to supply an ice house”. When their father was young he told them that one could drive a horse and sleigh on the ice in the Gulf from North Rustico all

the way to North Cape. They also Figure 2 - A baby seal is washed ashore at the North Rustico recall an active seal hunt (Figure 2) breakwater (March 31, 2011) (photo credit: D. Jardine).

on the ice off North Rustico when they were young, but this hasn’t occurred for many, many years.

Mr. Norman Peters (Figure 3) of North Rustico recalls:

• that the December 21, 2010, storm surge was as bad as any he has observed over the years. The surge occurred at high tide, during a severe northeast storm. The seas were chalk white during the storm. A biologist told him that between the big waves the bottom of the Gulf was exposed. This caused a lot of sediment to be moved around. Mr. Peters does feel Figure 3 - Norman Peters, long time resident and fisherman, stands at North that the storms have been Rustico wharf (photo credit: D. Jardine). getting worse in the past few years, especially the storm surges. These were not that common years ago. • a decrease in the amount of sea ice. Years ago, many springs seemed cool and icy. During the past two springs there has been no ice in the Gulf or in the North Rustico Harbour. • shoreline erosion. Mr. Peters knows of a beach, by the crib work in front of the lighthouse, which was frequented by the local residents. It is now completely gone due to erosion of sand in the area. • fluctuations in local water temperature. This past season, Mr. Peters observed “tremendous fluctuations” in water temperature, noting changes of up to 9 degrees from one day to the next. He had not seen this previously. Mr. Peters notes that lobsters do not move much when water temperatures are cold and that this fluctuation probably contributed to the poor catches early in 2011.

Mr. Joe Perry of North Rustico recalls:

• storm surges. Joe stated that the December 21, 2010, storm surge was as bad as any he has experienced over the years. The area south of Fisherman’s Wharf and extending to the harbour was underwater, and the street (Harbour View Drive) running to Rustico Harbour was flooded. He believes that the water could have been much higher, but infilling and building up around the wharves prevented the water from coming further inland

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Mr. Joey Gauthier of Rusticoville recalls:

• storm surges. He noted that the December 21, 2010, storm surge was the worst he has seen in a long time. This surge ruined his wharf and caused a loss of over 2 metres (8 feet) off his bank. Gabion baskets placed on the bank provide some protection. Mr. Gauthier recalls two more storms, one 10 years ago and another 40 years ago, that caused similar damage. • changes in sea level and tides. In the last five years he has observed that there is no true low tide at Rusticoville anymore. He notes that there are mostly high tides and higher tides. When he replaced his wharf this past spring, he constructed it a foot higher to allow for sea level rise and storm surges. • a decreased amount of sea ice. He recalled that there has been virtually no ice in the harbour or the Gulf over the last few years. They haven’t had pan ice or any big ice from up north enter the Gulf in many years. Lobster boats are no longer held back due to ice at the beginning of the May fishing season. • increased siltation in local waterways. Severe erosion in recent years has caused increased sedimentation in the channel into Rustico, throughout Rustico Bay, and upriver as far as New Glasgow. When Mr. Gauthier first started fishing, North Rustico was one of the best harbours on PEI, but silt and sediment have now “basically ruined it”. One example are the buoys he placed in early May 2011, to mark the channel by Robinson’s Island into Rustico Harbour. The buoys were placed in 3 metres (10 feet) of water and, as of August 2011, they were on a sand bar at low tide. He believes that the sand and sediment eroding from Robinson’s Island are moving westward at a rapid pace. • changes in the lobster fishery. He recalls that lobster harvests in recent years have not been as good. Mr. Gauthier believes that this change may have something to do with the temperature of the water. In early August, water temperature had not been any higher than 19 °C (66 °F), with large fluctuations. On August 3rd, during a thunderstorm, the water temperature dipped to 13 °C (56 °F). Typical August water temperatures are at least 21 °C (70 °F) or more.

Mr. Gary Gallant, Emergency Measures Organization (EMO) Coordinator, North Rustico Fire District, recalls:

• storm surges and coastal flooding. Mr. Gallant believes that the December 21, 2010, storm surge at North Rustico was the worst he has seen in his lifetime. He observed 3 to 4 metre (10 to 12 foot) waves hitting the cape near the breakwater. This caused a lot of erosion in the area. The North Rustico EMO

barricaded the flooded areas to prevent Figure 4 - Flooding on Harbour View Drive from storm surge vehicles from driving through the salty on December 21, 2010. Doiron’s Fisheries can be seen in the background (photo credit: D. Jardine). water. This stranded 80 residents of Lantern Hill and Rustico Harbour for a period of several hours. The water was 1 metre (3 feet) deep on Harbour View Drive in front of Doiron’s Fisheries (Figure 4). It was the same depth inside the Doiron’s Fisheries building. Water came to within 7.5 metres (25 feet) of the intersection by the post office. The water also reached the 2nd door on the Fire Hall on Riverside Drive.

• shoreline erosion, noting that this is Figure 5 - Waves crashing at Rustico Harbour breakwater on especially bad near the breakwater October 5, 2011 (photo credit: D. Jardine). (Figure 5). He is confident that 25 to 30 metres (65 to 100 feet) of shoreline has been lost in this area over the past few years. He thinks that one or two more bad storms will do serious damage to the breakwater, which could have a major impact on access to Rustico Harbour and the shoreline along the lighthouse. The December 21, 2010, storm (Figure 6) caused large size granite rocks to wash away to Robinson’s Island.

Figure 6 - Waves hitting the shoreline at North Rustico on December 21, 2010 (photo credit: D. Jardine).

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Community of North Rustico has worked, in partnership with the Prince Edward Island Department of Environment, Labour and Justice, to assess climate change risk and vulnerability. The purpose of this assessment was to identify and discuss the impacts of a changing climate on the community, and to consider possible means to lessen these effects (develop adaptation strategies for the future). Coastal hazards (storms, erosion, and flooding) were the focus of this assessment.

Climate change refers to a shift in average weather over time. While climate has been changing throughout the history of the planet, the warming of the atmosphere is now occurring at a much faster rate due to increased human activity around the globe. Climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures, more rainfall, rising seas, and more intense storms.

Residents of North Rustico have experience dealing with coastal storms, erosion, and flooding. In recent years they have noticed more frequent and intense storms. North Rustico’s shoreline—particularly below its boardwalk and along the north shoreline west of the breakwater—has experienced, and continues to experience, erosion. In the last decade, erosion rates have increased at these sites. Low- lying parts of the community (e.g., Rustico Harbour, and the shoreline from Simon Drive westward to the southern extent of Riverside Drive) are vulnerable to flooding from sea level rise and storm surges. Infrastructure on Harbour View Drive (the sewage treatment plant and lift station) and Riverside Drive (the community office and fire hall) has experienced flooding in the past and continues to be at risk in the future.

Sea level rise and extreme storm surge levels are both expected to become more severe. It is anticipated that sea level will rise by 1 metre (3 feet) by the end of this century. Storm surges will ride on top of rising seas, causing even more extensive flooding. These changes will have impacts on North Rustico’s wharf, roadways, and other important infrastructure.

Toward the end of this century, average annual temperatures are expected to rise by over 3 °C (above 1980 levels). This will make the coastline even more vulnerable, as there will be less sea ice to protect it from waves. More erosion is likely (perhaps 1.5 to 2 times the current rate), causing greater sedimentation in the North Rustico Harbour. Over the same time period, annual precipitation is expected to rise by 10%, with more rain and less snow.

Climate change will undoubtedly have impacts on local residents, businesses, and infrastructure but planning now can help to minimize damage in the future. North Rustico should consider adaptation options, including the incorporation of climate change vulnerability into their Emergency Management Plan, restriction of coastal development, increased coastal monitoring, and assessment of the community’s infrastructure.

TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... i STORIES OF WEATHER AND CHANGE ...... ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... vi LIST OF FIGURES ...... viii LIST OF TABLES ...... ix KEY TERMS ...... x

1. Background...... 1 A. What is a Vulnerability Assessment? ...... 2 B. Why Does North Rustico Need a Vulnerability Assessment? ...... 2 C. How Did North Rustico Complete a Vulnerability Assessment? ...... 3 2. Coastal Hazards ...... 4 3. Past Coastal Impacts in North Rustico ...... 5 A. Coastal Storms ...... 5 B. Coastal Erosion ...... 7 C. Coastal Flooding ...... 8 D. Other Impacts...... 13 4. Climate Change Scenarios for North Rustico ...... 13 A. Temperature ...... 13 B. Precipitation ...... 14 C. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge ...... 15 5. Projected Future Impacts in North Rustico ...... 18 A. Coastal Erosion ...... 18 B. Coastal Flooding ...... 18 C. Other Potential Impacts ...... 19 6. Climate Change Adaptation ...... 20 A. Past Initiatives ...... 20 B. Adaptation Options ...... 21 1. Update the Emergency Management Plan ...... 21 2. Create a Municipal Coastal Development Setback By-law ...... 23 3. Encourage Provincial Land Use Planning Policies that Consider Climate Change ...... 24 4. Promote Responsible Agricultural Practices ...... 24 5. Increase Monitoring of Coastal Hazards ...... 25 6. Create a Climate Change Adaptation Plan ...... 26 7. Assess Community Infrastructure ...... 26 8. Consider Strategies to Decrease Vulnerability of Existing Community Infrastructure ... 27 9. Increase Climate Change Awareness and Education ...... 28

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 - Vance and Emard Court of Rustico Harbour stand in front of the historic North Rustico Harbour Lighthouse ...... ii Figure 2 - A baby seal is washed ashore at the North Rustico breakwater (March 31, 2011) ...... ii Figure 3 - Norman Peters, long time resident and fisherman, stands at North Rustico wharf ...... iii Figure 4 - Flooding on Harbour View Drive from storm surge on December 21, 2010. Doiron’s Fisheries can be seen in the background ...... v Figure 5 - Waves crashing at Rustico Harbour breakwater on October 5, 2011...... v Figure 6 - Waves hitting the shoreline at North Rustico on December 21, 2010 ...... v Figure 7 - North Rustico is home to approximately 600 year-round residents, many of whom live along or close to the shoreline ...... 1 Figure 8 - North Rustico’s economy centres on fishing and tourism...... 1 Figure 9 - North Rustico Harbour Lighthouse is a Provincial Registered Heritage Place. Constructed in 1876, the lighthouse has been moved three times. A winter storm in 1899 nearly destroyed it ...... 1 Figure 10 - Coastal storms, such as that pictured above at the North Rustico breakwater in 2011, can bring fierce winds, storm surges, and wave action ...... 4 Figure 11 - Areas impacted by erosion and flooding as identified by residents of North Rustico and surrounding areas...... 6 Figure 12 - Coastal change in the North Rustico area, determined by comparing aerial photos from 1968 and 2010...... 9 Figure 13 - Coastal change in the North Rustico area, determined by comparing aerial photos from 2000 and 2010...... 10 Figure 14 - Fishing vessels line North Rustico wharf. Increased sedimentation has limited the ability of boats to pass in and out of Rustico Harbour...... 11 Figure 15 - Storm surge threatens fish sheds along Riverside Drive as fisherman attempt to control the damage (above) and the North Rustico Fire Hall (below) on December 21, 2010 ...... 11 Figure 16 - Coastal flooding during the December 21, 2010, storm reached the 2 metre (6.5 feet) elevation mark in North Rustico (all areas shaded red)...... 12 Figure 17 - Climate change flood risk scenarios for 2050. Projected flooding from sea level rise (green) plus 1-in-10 year (yellow), 1-in-25 year (orange), 1-in-50 year (red), and 1-in-100 year (dark red) storm surges are shown for the year 2050...... 16 Figure 18 - Climate change flood risk scenarios for 2100. Projected flooding from sea level rise (green) plus 1-in-10 year (yellow), 1-in-25 year (orange), 1-in-50 year (red), and 1-in-100 year (dark red) storm surges are shown for the year 2100...... 16 Figure 19 - Rusticoville Bridge, and homeowners living below Snowie Road, Rusticoville, will be highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges by the year 2050...... 16 Figure 20 - Armour rock currently protects the Rustico Harbour breakwater...... 16 Figure 21 - Coastal erosion in Souris has required this homeowner to remove a portion of his shed ...... 16 Figure 22 - Water bubbling out of a sanitary discharge manhole at the wharf on Harbour View Drive ... 16 Figure 23 - Elevated house on Harbour View Drive, Rustico Harbour ...... 16

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Figure 24 - Grade 7 and 8 students at Gulf Shore School in North Rustico discuss climate change and recent local weather events ...... 16

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 - Historical records of coastal storms causing extensive damage in North Rustico ...... 5 Table 2 - Shoreline erosion rates in the North Rustico area (1989-2007), as calculated by Parks Canada (2007) ...... 7 Table 3 - Temperature (°C) scenarios for North Rustico [Climate Station Long River A (ID: 8300500) @ 46.50N 63.55W] ...... 14 Table 4 - Precipitation (mm) Scenarios for North Rustico [Climate Station Long River A (ID: 8300500) @ 46.50N 63.55W] ...... 15 Table 5 - Sea level rise (cm) scenarios for North Rustico (Canadian Hydrographic Services site - Rustico) ...... 15

KEY TERMS

ADAPTATION is action taken to prepare for climate change. Specifically, it seeks to minimize the impacts of climate change. This is different from mitigation, which focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to slow or limit climate change.

ADAPTATION PLANNING refers to the process whereby a community identifies ways in which it might be impacted by climate change, and how it develops a plan to minimize those impacts.

CLIMATE refers to the “average” weather over a long period of time. Aspects of climate include temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction, sunshine, fog, and frequency of extreme events.

CLIMATE CHANGE refers to the process by which the average weather becomes different over time. Climate has changed naturally over the course of history, but human activity (e.g., industry, cars) has now caused it to change much more quickly and more severely than ever before. Some of the changes occurring in Atlantic Canada include warmer and wetter summers and winters, rising sea level, and more intense and more frequent extreme weather events (e.g., windstorms, hurricanes, storm surge).

COASTAL EROSION is the wearing away or reduction of coastal land, primarily due to wave action along the shore. Coastal erosion causes the shoreline to move further inland.

COASTAL HAZARDS are naturally occurring events that can pose a threat to the health or life of people, property, and/or the environment in coastal areas. Hazards include coastal storms, coastal flooding, and coastal erosion.

FLOODING refers to the overflow of water onto land. Inland flooding usually results from faulty infrastructure or sudden and/or heavy precipitation. Coastal flooding usually results from high tides and storm events. Storm surges, in particular, can lead to devastating flooding along the coast.

PRECIPITATION refers to rain, snow, and hail that fall from the atmosphere.

SALTWATER INTRUSION refers to the process by which saltwater from the ocean moves into (infiltrates) fresh groundwater sources along the coast.

STORM SURGE is a series of strong coastal waves that are pushed onshore by high winds during a storm.

VULNERABILITY is the state of being exposed or subject to climate change impacts such as inland flooding or coastal hazards (e.g., storms, flooding, erosion).

WEATHER is the state of the atmosphere (e.g. temperature, precipitation, wind) at a specific time and location.

1. BACKGROUND North Rustico is a coastal community located along the north shore of PEI, approximately 30 kilometres (18.5 miles) northwest of Charlottetown. The community, founded in 1790 around a small natural harbour on the edge of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, was first incorporated in 1954. Its current, year-round population is about 600. In the summer months, the population of North Rustico grows significantly with the arrival of seasonal residents, returning students, and tourists. Many residents of North Rustico live along or close to the shoreline. Figure 7 - North Rustico is home to approximately 600 year-round residents, many of whom live along or close North Rustico’s economy centres on its active fishing to the shoreline (photo credit: D. Jardine). harbour, which is home to approximately 30 vessels that harvest lobster and 8 vessels that harvest tuna. Ground fish species are fished by local residents, and there are many mussel beds in North Rustico Harbour.

Tourism is also a major contributor to the local economy. The Prince Edward Island National Park borders on the northern edge of the community of North Rustico. The scenic vistas, beautiful beaches, and natural beauty of the area are a major draw to Figure 8 - North Rustico’s economy centres on fishing out-of-province visitors. World famous lobster and tourism (photo credit: D. Jardine). suppers are served in North Rustico from May until the Thanksgiving weekend. There are also a number of deep sea fishing charters that operate out of North Rustico and the surrounding areas.

North Rustico is home to a Provincial Registered Heritage Place: the North Rustico Harbour Lighthouse constructed in 1876 (Figure 9).

Figure 9 - North Rustico Harbour Lighthouse is a Provincial Registered Heritage Place. Constructed in 1876, the lighthouse has been moved three times. A winter storm in 1899 nearly destroyed it (photo credit: P. Nishimura).

A. What is a Vulnerability Assessment?

A vulnerability assessment is a process whereby a community identifies areas of exposure to possible impacts of climate change (for more information, see Appendix 1). Such impacts could include an increase in storm frequency and intensity, sea level rise, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding.

The goals of this process are to:

• develop climate change community awareness

• identify climate change issues that will affect the community

• share knowledge of similar issues and damage from previous weather events

• discuss future impacts and damage from climate change events

• identify possible solutions and adaptation strategies

B. Why Does North Rustico Need a Vulnerability Assessment?

Climate change will affect the community of North Rustico. Coastal flooding and erosion will be more common in the future. This could damage place infrastructure (for example, buildings, roads, power lines, water, and sewage systems), property, heritage sites, and environmentally sensitive areas. In some cases, these impacts could jeopardize public safety.

A vulnerability assessment encourages a community to think about what kind of changes can be expected, which ones are of most concern, and what it can do about them now to minimize damage in the future. Consideration of these issues will help the community’s decision-makers to plan for potential emergencies and to assess current infrastructure. Vulnerability assessments can also be the first step in adaptation planning. This will involve the development of a plan to identify and make the changes necessary to minimize future negative impacts.

Many rural communities in Prince Edward Island do not have the resources (e.g., people, money) to properly assess their vulnerability to climate change. With financial assistance from Natural Resources Canada’s Regional Adaptation Collaborative (RAC), the PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice is developing tools to help communities plan for climate change. These tools, including maps and climate change scenarios, are being prepared to help communities conduct vulnerability assessments.

North Rustico, along with three other communities, is evaluating this process to determine how it can be used elsewhere across Prince Edward Island.

C. How Did North Rustico Complete a Vulnerability Assessment?

Members of the community of North Rustico, along with representatives of the PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice, formed a committee to conduct this vulnerability assessment. Representatives included:

Mr. Giles Gallant Council Chair Mr. Fred Doiron Councillor Ms. Nancy Gauthier Councillor Mr. Robbie Doucette Councillor Ms. Anne Kirk Councillor Ms. Gail Gallant Councillor Mr. David Gallant Councillor Mr. Les Standen Councillor Mr. Allan Nisbet Utility Operations Ms. Jane Marie Gallant Acting Administrator Ms. Patsy Gamauf Administrator Mr. Don Jardine PEI Coordinator, Regional Adaptation Collaborative Mr. Peter Nishimura PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice Mr. Glen Robertson PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice

Several meetings were held to complete the vulnerability assessment:

Introduction to Community Council April 24, 2011 Part I – Getting Started June 13, 2011 Part II – Coastal Hazards July 11, 2011 Part II – Coastal Hazards (cont’d) August 15, 2011 Part III – Presentation of Draft Report February 21, 2012

In addition to committee meetings, interviews were conducted by Don Jardine with the following residents of North Rustico and the surrounding areas:

Mr. Emard Court, Rustico Harbour June 15, 2011 Mr. Vance Court, Rustico Harbour June 15, 2011 Mr. Don Gallant, North Rustico June 16, 2011 Mr. Gary Gallant, North Rustico July 19, 2011 Mr. Mike Doyle, Rustico Harbour July 22, 2011 Mr. Joey Gauthier, Rusticoville August 5, 2011 Mr. Norman Peters, North Rustico August 5, 2011

Mr. Merlin Gallant, Cornwall September 9, 2011 Mr. Alan Nisbet, North Rustico January 11, 2012

2. COASTAL HAZARDS

The community vulnerability assessment of North Rustico focused on coastal hazards. This focus was selected by the community based on their coastal location and past experience.

Coastal hazards are naturally occurring events that can pose a threat to the health or safety of people, property, and/or the environment in coastal areas. Types of coastal hazards include storms, flooding, and erosion (Figure 10).

Coastal storms can cause high winds, heavy precipitation, storm surges, and erosion. Flying debris, movement of unsecured equipment, and flooding of Figure 10 - Coastal storms, such as that pictured above at the North Rustico streets, sewer systems, and breakwater in 2011, can bring fierce winds, storm surges, and wave action (photo credit: D. Jardine). basements are only some of the dangers to coastal residents. Power outages and leaking roofs also threaten homeowners, particularly those who make up the more vulnerable segments of the population (e.g., elderly, disabled). In many cases, the costs of repair and replacement fall to the resident, whose financial resources may be limited.

Storm surge and sea level rise can cause coastal flooding. Storm surges often deposit debris, like ice, seaweed, sand, and rocks, onto the land. This can damage structures and make roads impassable. Flood waters can also enter homes and businesses, and cut people off from essential services.

Coastal erosion poses a distinct threat to property along the coast. Wave action wears away the shoreline, gradually reducing frontage on coastal properties. Extreme weather events, such as coastal storms, are particularly devastating. They can lead to dramatic erosion that far exceeds that typically seen over the course of a year. Substantial erosion can place coastal properties at risk, undermine structures, and jeopardize water and sewage systems. It can reduce both the aesthetic and market values of coastal lots. Erosion also has the potential to increase vulnerability of drinking water wells to saltwater intrusion, as saline groundwater moves further inland.

3. PAST COASTAL IMPACTS IN NORTH RUSTICO

The community of North Rustico has a long history of vulnerability to coastal storms, erosion, and flooding. Coastal hazards have had—and continue to have—impacts on North Rustico’s infrastructure, people, economy, and environment. People living in North Rustico and the surrounding area identified many areas impacted by storms and weather events (Figure 11).

A. Coastal Storms Residents report storms seem to be “more frequent” in recent years, are often associated with the hurricane season (approximately June to September), and are common in December and January. Some of these events are listed in Table 1.

Table 1 - Historical records of coastal storms causing extensive damage in North Rustico.

Date Type of Storm Damage due to Damage Caused Oct 03, 1851 Yankee Gale high winds, waves 70 fishing boats sank1 Jul 25, 1883 Storm high winds, waves damage to ships, Marco Polo runs aground2 Mar 30, 1976 Storm Surge high tide and storm surge erosion, section of road lost on Robinson’s Island3 Nov 21, 1981 Storm Surge high tide and surge flooding in Rustico Harbour, North Rustico wharf Nov 21, 1988 Major Storm high tide and storm surge gabions and portion of a road lost at Anglo Rustico4 Feb 17-20, 2004 White Juan high tide and storm surge flooding in wharf area, Riverside Drive flooded5 Dec 26, 2004 Storm Surge high tide and storm surge flooding inside buildings and on the wharf6 Dec 03, 2007 Storm Surge high tide and storm surge erosion, flooding7 Dec 21, 2010 Nor’easter with, high tide and storm surge flooding, stranded residents 8 storm surge

1 Jones, Robert L. 1991. Canadian Disasters – An Historical Survey. 2 http://www.new-brunswick.net/Saint_John/timedate.html 3 The Guardian, March 31, 1976. 4 Baird and Associates, 1990. Rustico Harbour Sediment Transport Study, North Rustico, PEI. 5 Environment Canada. 6 Doyle, Mike. Personal communication. July 25, 2011. 7 The Guardian, December 4, 2007. 8 Gallant, Gary. Personal communication. July 19, 2011.

Areas impacted by erosion

Areas impacted by flooding

Locations of Interest

01 – Lions Club (Designated meeting place in event of emergency)

02 – Fire Hall / Community Office

03 – Sewage Treatment Plant / Lift Station

04 – Residents of Lantern Hill

05 – Residents of Rustico Harbour

06 – Wharf and businesses of Rustico Harbour

07 – North Rustico Harbour Lighthouse

08 – North Rustico Breakwater

Figure 11 - Areas impacted by erosion and flooding as identified by residents of North Rustico and surrounding areas.

B. Coastal Erosion Coastal erosion has long been an issue for the community of North Rustico. As noted in the stories of weather and change presented at the beginning of this report, there is a strong local awareness of coastal erosion in the area.

North Rustico and surrounding areas have a complex coastline, with beaches, dune systems, barrier islands, marshes, estuaries, and other natural features. These features are shaped by coastal storms. Coastal erosion has been reported at numerous locations (Figure 11). These include:

• along the coastline in Rustico Harbour - At Joey’s Deep Sea Fishing in Rusticoville, the shoreline eroded over 2 metres (6.5 feet) during the storm of December 21, 2010.9 • along the boardwalk (Harbour View Drive) • near the North Rustico breakwater • near the North Rustico Harbour lighthouse - The beach near the North Rustico harbour lighthouse has been all but lost due to erosion, shoreline protection systems (which prevent the beach from naturally retreating), and a slowly rising sea level. • near Rusticoville bridge at Robinson’s Island - Campgrounds on Robinson’s Island have been closed due to aggressive shoreline erosion. Erosion rates on the south side of the island were reportedly 90 cm/year (35 inches/yr) prior to 1978.10 A major storm on November 22, 1986, caused over 2 metres (6.5 feet) of shoreline to be lost in the day use area of the National Park. More than 2 km (1.2 miles) of Robinson’s Island has reportedly eroded since the mid-1950s.11

Over the past 20 years, Parks Canada has been measuring erosion in the North Rustico area. Erosion rates range from 20–120 cm/yr (8–47 inches/yr) (Table 2).

Table 2 - Shoreline erosion rates in the North Rustico area (1989-2007), as calculated by Parks Canada (2007).

Site ID Location Coast Type Time Shoreline Erosion rate Period lost (m) (m/yr) east of N Rustico Access Gate; W NP-08 glacial till 1991-2007 2.0 0.2 of kitchen shelter across access Road to Cottages; N NP-09 sandstone bluff 1991-2007 1.6 0.2 of Rolling’s Pond NW corner of old day use area NP-18 glacial till 2003-2007 5.9 1.2 parking lot on Robinson’s Island

9 Gauthier, Joey. Personal communication, August 5, 2011. 10 PEI Archives. Wilbur Robinson interview. June 15, 1978 to October 20, 1978. 11 Peters, Norman. Environmental Petition No. 138, filed February 18, 2005 under Section 22 of the Auditor General Act concerning strategic environmental assessment for Rustico Harbour/Bay in Prince Edward Island.

Erosion rates, recently updated for Prince Edward Island, confirm some of the changes residents have been seeing along the coastline (Figure 12-13). Locations experiencing erosion include the boardwalk below Harbour View Drive (<30 cm or 12 inches/year) and the northeast-facing beach west of the breakwater (30–90 cm or 12–36 inches/year). Erosion on Robinson’s Island is even greater, at rates up to 1.2 metres or 4 feet/year. Slightly higher erosion rates have been seen in the last 10 years compared to the last 40 years (Figure 13).

A barrier beach, immediately to the southeast of Rustico, seems to be accreting (gathering sand). However, the barrier beach is actually moving toward the land. A more detailed explanation of North Rustico’s coastline change from 1968 to 2010 is provided in Appendix 2.

Storms and storm surges, which bring large waves, are responsible for much of the erosion that is being observed in North Rustico. Sand bars, barrier bars, sand spits, and sea ice can reduce erosion by protecting the shore from wave action. The North Rustico breakwater has protected the coastline to the south. Here, there has been little erosion and even some accretion.

Sand and sediment eroded from one location is often deposited nearby. In North Rustico, sand and sediment eroded from Robinson’s Island, the shoreline cliffs at Anglo Rustico, and along the shoreline from Rustico Harbour toward Cavendish are being deposited in Rustico Bay12. This is a problem for the local fishery and tourism industries. Commercial fishing and charter vessels have difficulty travelling in and out of the harbour, and some of the larger boats regularly hit bottom (Figure 14).

C. Coastal Flooding Coastal flooding has become a hazard for the community of North Rustico. Storm surges, driven by a northerly or north-easterly wind, have caused extensive flooding. Low-lying areas, particularly along the shoreline from Simon Drive westward to the southern extent of Riverside Drive, are vulnerable to flooding.

Recent storms in 2004, 2007, and 2010 brought storm surges and high winds (Table 1) that caused extensive flooding along the North Rustico wharf and impacted many homes adjacent to the shoreline.

12 Baird and Associates, 1990. Rustico Harbour Sediment Transport Study, North Rustico, PEI.

Figure 12 - Coastal change in the North Rustico area, determined by comparing aerial photos from 1968 and 2010.

Figure 13 - Coastal change in the North Rustico area, determined by comparing aerial photos from 2000 and 2010.

Figure 14 - Fishing vessels line North Rustico wharf. Increased sedimentation has limited the ability of boats to pass in and out of Rustico Harbour.

A storm on December 21, 2010, is considered by many in the community to have been the most damaging in memory. The storm was accompanied by a strong northeasterly wind, which drove the storm surge toward the shore. It also coincided with a high tide. The Seagull’s Nest Gift Shop at the end of Harbour View Drive experienced 30 cm (12 inches) of flooding on its main level, and numerous fish sheds and lobster traps were damaged or lost along Riverside Drive (Figure 15). Harbour View Drive was eventually barricaded, cutting off access to approximately 80 residents living on Lantern Hill and in the Rustico Harbour area. Access remained closed for several hours. Emergency services were also threatened, as water came almost to the doors of the North Rustico Fire Hall (Figure 15). At the height of the storm, the surge flooded areas 2 metres (6.5 feet) above mean sea level (according to resident’s recollections) (Figure 16). Figure 15 - Storm surge threatens fish sheds along Riverside Drive as fisherman attempt to control the damage (above) and the North Rustico Fire Hall (below) on December 21, 2010 (photo credit: D. Jardine).

Figure 16 - Coastal flooding during the December 21, 2010, storm reached the 2 metre (6.5 feet) elevation mark in North Rustico (all areas shaded red).

The community’s wastewater treatment facility at 42 Harbour View Drive was also threatened during this storm. Water reached the surface of the lift station and overwhelmed the treatment system. Almost 1.64 million litres (360,000 gallons) of seawater entered the treatment system (it has a design capacity of 95,000 gallons). This seriously threatened the system’s ability to treat wastewater prior to discharging it into the harbour.

D. Other Impacts

It is worth noting that North Rustico’s harbour has been impacted not only by coastal hazards, but by land-based activities as well. Agriculture and construction in areas adjacent to the shore have contributed significant amounts of sediment and nutrients (via surface run-off. This has led to sedimentation in the harbour. Such run-off can also have serious consequences for water quality. The movement of soil and excessive nutrients (i.e., from fertilizer) into the harbour can lead to fish mortality and a loss of fish habitat.13

4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR NORTH RUSTICO

Climate is changing around the world. This will impact different regions and communities in varying ways. Communities must adapt to these changes if they are to minimize negative impacts upon their residents, infrastructure, economy, and environment. Planning for these changes becomes easier when one can imagine what the future climate could look like.

Global climate models (20) were used to generate future scenarios for eight Island locations. Such scenarios represent reasonable descriptions of future climate. For this vulnerability assessment information for the Long River / Rustico area was used. (See Appendix 3 for more information on the data and explanations of the climate indices.)

A. Temperature

According to climate models, the community of North Rustico is likely to experience warmer weather in coming years (Table 3). By the 2080s, average temperatures will be warmer year round (3 – 4 °C above 1980s levels). There will also be more hot days (maximum temperature > 30 °C) and fewer cold days (maximum temperature < -10 °C). The growing season will also be longer (by 40 days).

Warmer temperatures will mean more days above freezing temperatures, and North Rustico’s harbour will continue to experience less sea ice in the winter months. Warming atmospheric temperatures are

13 PEI Department of Environmental Resources (1992); University of Acadia’s Centre of Estuarine Research (1997).

13 also expected to be accompanied by warmer water temperatures. In the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, the mean annual temperature of the continental shelf water is projected to be 3 to 4 °C higher than current temperatures.14

Table 3 - Temperature (°C) scenarios for North Rustico [Climate Station Long River A (ID: 8300500) @ 46.50N 63.55W].

Parameter 1980s 2020s 2050s 2080s Temperature – Annual 5 7 ± 1 8 ± 1 9 ± 1 Winter -7 -5 ± 1 -4 ± 1 -2 ± 1 Spring 3 4 ± 1 5 ± 1 6 ± 1 Summer 17 18 ± 1 19 ± 1 21 ± 1 Fall 8 9 ± <1 10 ± 1 12 ± 1

Heating Degree Days 4,675 4,332 3,965 3,597 Cooling Degree Days 100 151 226 321

Hot Days (Tmax > 30) 1 3 7 13 Very Hot Days (Tmax > 35) 0 0 0 0 Cold Days (Tmax < -10) 12 9 7 5 Very Cold Days (Tmax < -20) 0 0 0 0

Growing Degree Days > 5 1,667 1.860 2,095 2.362 Growing Degree Days > 10 848 990 1,163 1,360 Growing Season Length (days) 167 177 189 209 Corn Heat Units (CHU) 2,450 2,738 3,077 3,464 Corn Season Length (days) 138 148 158 172

Freeze Free Season (days) 198 219 242 259 Freeze Thaw Cycles - Annual 87 85 73 65 Winter 29 32 34 35 Spring 37 35 26 21 Summer 0 0 0 0 Fall 20 18 13 10

B. Precipitation

Precipitation (rain and snow) will increase slightly (Table 4). North Rustico is likely to experience more days with rain and fewer days with snow. Increasing temperatures will mean that more precipitation in winter will fall as rain. Short period rainfall is expected to become more intense, increasing the vulnerability of locations already prone to inland flooding.

14 Drinkwater, K.F. et al. (eds.). 2005. Journal of Marine Science 62: 1203-1204.

Table 4 - Precipitation (mm) Scenarios for North Rustico [Climate Station Long River A (ID: 8300500) @ 46.50N 63.55W].

Parameter 1980s 2020s 2050s 2080s Precipitation – Annual 1,041 1,069± 19 1,084 ± 35 1,152 ± 53 Winter 241 252 ± 9 260 ± 13 271 ± 19 Spring 235 252 ± 9 260 ± 13 271 ± 19 Summer 264 268 ± 14 266 ± 18 265 ± 27 Fall 301 268 ± 14 306 ± 15 314 ± 23

Days with Rain 106 119 124 127 Days with Snow 38 46 39 34

Water Surplus 573 558 549 555 Water Deficit 40 42 52 62 Δ Intensity of Short Period Rainfall % 0 5 9 16

C. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

Sea level will continue to rise in North Rustico, increasing by 100 cm or 1 metre (3 feet) by the end of this century (Table 5). Rising seas will permanently flood land that is less than 1 metre above highest tide levels (provided it is not protected by a higher sea wall or other structure). Flooding caused by storm surges will be temporary, but still capable of causing damage.

Rising sea levels will increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in North Rustico. Storm surges will ride on top of higher seas, causing even more extensive flooding. For example, the extent of flooding experienced during a 1-in-100 yr storm surge will happen during a 1-in-10 yr storm surge by mid-century. By the end of this century, a 1-in-100 yr storm could reach coastal property that is less than 4 metres (13 feet) in elevation. Flooding scenarios for 2050 and 2100 are shown in Figures 17 and 18, respectively.

Table 5 - Sea level rise (cm) scenarios for North Rustico (Canadian Hydrographic Services site - Rustico).

Year Total Sea Level Rise (cm) 2025 16 ± 3 2055 44 ± 15 2085 84 ± 36 2100 108 ± 48

Figure 17 - Climate change flood risk scenarios for 2050. Projected flooding from sea level rise (green) plus 1-in-10 year (yellow), 1-in-25 year (orange), 1-in-50 year (red), and 1-in-100 year (dark red) storm surges are shown for the year 2050.

Figure 18 - Climate change flood risk scenarios for 2100. Projected flooding from sea level rise (green) plus 1-in-10 year (yellow), 1-in-25 year (orange), 1-in-50 year (red), and 1-in-100 year (dark red) storm surges are shown for the year 2100.

5. PROJECTED FUTURE IMPACTS IN NORTH RUSTICO

North Rustico will continue to be impacted by coastal storms, erosion, and flooding. The nature of these hazards, however, is likely to change. Coastal erosion and flooding during storms will continue to occur in future years, but occur with greater severity and increased frequency. This means that for communities like North Rustico, the impacts of these hazards—on the local infrastructure, residents, economy, and environment—will be more intense and experienced more often.

A. Coastal Erosion

Coastal erosion rates are likely to increase in North Rustico. Some experts expect erosion to increase by 1.5 to 2 times the current rates over the next 100 years.15 Storms, sea level rise, and warming winter temperatures will be most influential in this regard. Sea level rise will increase the intensity of coastal erosion along the shoreline. Higher water levels mean larger waves. Larger waves can cause more erosion than smaller waves.

Warming winter temperatures are likely to result in less sea ice, leaving the shoreline exposed to waves. Greater wave energy reaching the coastline during late winter storm events will increase erosion rates in vulnerable areas.

Higher rates of erosion will require further consideration of retreat or protection options.

B. Coastal Flooding

Sea level rise represents the most significant risk for the community of North Rustico. Predictably, low- lying areas along the shoreline, notably Rustico Harbour and Simon Drive westward to the southern extent of Riverside Drive, are the most vulnerable.

Harbour View Drive and Riverside Drive are just two roadways within the community that have already experienced damage and impassibility. The community`s capacity for emergency response (based out of the community office and fire hall) has, itself, demonstrated significant vulnerability to storm surges and flooding. The possibility that a community`s emergency response might be disabled by the very emergency to which it needs to respond should prompt immediate contingency planning. Future scenarios, which suggest that some community residents are likely to be denied passage in or out of their subdivisions for several hours (as was the case for Lantern Hill and Rustico Harbour residents on December 21, 2010), should also be considered and addressed.

15 Forbes, D. L., and Manson, G.K. 2001. Coastal Impacts of Climate Change and Sea-level Rise on Prince Edward Island. [Supporting Document 9(Coastal geology and shore-zone processes) to McCulloch, M., Forbes, D.L., Shaw, R.W. and A041 Scientific Team. 2002. Coastal impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on Prince Edward Island (Forbes, D.L. & Shaw, R.W., eds). Geological Survey of Canada, Open File 4261, 62 p.]

The community`s wastewater treatment plant on Harbour View Drive will remain at risk at its current location. Should this site be subject to flooding in the future, it may become disabled. This will put the harbour at risk of fecal contamination.

Rusticoville Bridge, though not part of North Rustico, remains a key access point for residents of the community. It, too, is predicted to be highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges by 2050 (Figure 19).

Figure 19 - Rusticoville Bridge, and homeowners living below Snowie Road, Rusticoville, will be highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges by the year 2050.

C. Other Potential Impacts

Warmer waters) are expected to impact the fishery out of North Rustico. Water temperature, among other factors, can have important consequences for fish mortality. Temperature, food availability, and suitable spawning grounds are three of the primary factors that determine the large-scale distribution

pattern of fish and shellfish. Most fish species prefer a specific temperature range. Shell hardness in lobster is affected by water temperature. Warmer water causes softer shells and reduced marketability. This was seen in the fall 2011 lobster fishing season in Nova Scotia.

Mussels, which constitute a significant fishery in North Rustico harbour, may also be affected. One of the biggest challenges of the mussel industry has been the population explosion of certain species of aquatic invaders. Presently, four species of tunicates have been identified in PEI waters: clubbed tunicate (1998), golden star (2001), violet tunicate (2004), and vase tunicate (2004). The only tunicate variety found in Rustico Bay prior to 2006 was the violet tunicate. Warmer water temperatures will likely cause the number of invasive species, like these, to increase.

Short period rainfall is expected to become more intense, thereby increasing the vulnerability of locations already prone to inland flooding. More intense short period rainfall is also likely to increase the amount of agricultural run-off.

6. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

A. Past Initiatives

The community of North Rustico has made changes that help minimize the impact of coastal hazards and climate change. Some have been successful, while others require ongoing attention to maintain their effectiveness.

Central Water System A central water system was installed at North Rustico in 1958 to supply fresh water for the Co-op fish plant. Originally, four wells were drilled on the Line Road. All of these were placed in pits. Over the years the pits flooded on a regular basis after heavy rains and snow melt runoff. Eventually, one of the wells was abandoned. The remaining wells were converted in 2010 and 2011 to a pit-less system to prevent the entrance of storm water. Water is now pumped from the three wells into a central building at 164 Line Road for treatment and distribution. These efforts will protect drinking water quality from the more intense and frequent runoff that is anticipated because of climate change.

Shoreline Protection In 1881, a 1,240-foot breakwater was built at North Rustico at the site of the current structure. This breakwater, which was positioned on the north side of the harbour, provided protection from heavy seas and surf in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The breakwater has been repaired and rebuilt numerous times, most recently in 2008. Armour stone was added to raise its height (Figure 20). Cribwork and sand fencing was constructed between the breakwater and the entrance to North Rustico harbour. Figure 20 - Armour rock currently protects the Rustico Harbour Armour stone has also been added in this breakwater (photo credit: D. Jardine). area. Wooden crib work has been installed to protect the wharf area.

Coastal erosion, however, has continued to occur along the breakwater, lighthouse, and boardwalk areas. Cribwork and riprap installed along the shore on the north side of the lighthouse is currently deteriorating.

B. Adaptation Options

Vulnerability assessments identify locations, people, businesses, infrastructure, and habitat that have been, or will be, vulnerable to coastal hazards. Issues requiring further consideration have been identified through this process. These can be used to inform Council and other local decision-makers. The development of a formal and comprehensive climate change adaptation plan, prepared with the help of a planning professional, is the next appropriate course of action for any community. Recommendations are provided below in no particular order. Council and the community of North Rustico will need to evaluate each recommendation and prioritize their response.

1. Update the Emergency Management Plan (2008) Prior to, during, and after emergencies such as coastal storms and floods, elected heads of municipalities are responsible for:

• analyzing risks and hazards within their municipality/local authority and developing emergency plans to address situations that might impact life, property, and the well being of persons within the municipality/local authority; • preparing and implementing local emergency programs using the resources available to them; • directing and controlling all emergency operations

• requesting assistance from other municipalities/local authorities; and • informing the provincial government (Emergency Measures Organization - EMO) about the emergency and possible requirements for assistance.16

The development of a comprehensive emergency management plan is integral to public safety, and should be a top priority for community leadership. The PEI Office of Public Safety provides several resources to aid local communities in the area of Emergency Management Planning:

. The Municipal Emergency Management Guide outlines key components and steps to help communities develop plans, create exercises, and ensure that resources have been identified before an emergency occurs. . A Public Safety Officer is available to speak to community council members on Municipal Emergency Management, or to conduct a community presentation on Personal Preparedness. . The Municipal Self Assessment Tool helps municipalities to identify key areas of focus and to ensure hazards are clearly understood. . Emergency Planning Templates are available for municipalities and local businesses to create an emergency plan specific to the community or business requirements. . The Guide to Business Continuity Planning (developed by the Government of Canada, Office of Critical Infrastructure Protection and Emergency Preparedness) assists local businesses in developing strategies to deliver and resume their services, during and after an emergency, respectively. . Crisis Communication Planning assists communities and businesses with outlining and delegating responsibilities in the event of a crisis, and with client and public communication. . Emergency Management Training is available for municipal staff and volunteers who have a role to play within the municipal emergency plan. Topics include Basic Emergency Management, Emergency Operations Centre Management, Exercise Design, and Emergency Public Information.

The community of North Rustico has an emergency management plan, which was completed in 2008. This plan should be updated on an annual basis to include current resources and up-to-date contact information. Assessments of recent damage from severe weather events, such as past storm surges, should also be provided. Emergency response procedures should be upgraded to help plan for future coastal flooding events. Areas subject to flooding or storm waves may not be accessible to emergency response vehicles and crews (Lantern Hill and Rustico Harbour). This can result in delayed response times during a fire, vehicle accident, power outage, or other emergency situation. An alternate street access for these areas should be considered.

Riverside Drive, where the fire hall and community offices are currently located, is particularly vulnerable to flooding.

16 PEI Office of Public Safety, Municipal Responsibilities

2. Create a Municipal Coastal Development Setback By-law Some coastal infrastructure, businesses, homes, and other structures in North Rustico are located close to the water’s edge. When they were built, they may have been well back from the shoreline. Today, erosion of the coastline has made some of these developments vulnerable. This is a common problem across Prince Edward Island (Figure 21).

The vulnerability of coastal properties, however, might also be due in part to a lack of awareness, foresight, and/or caution by the original developers and local government. Many coastal developments currently threatened by an encroaching shoreline might now be less vulnerable if developers had been able both to anticipate changes to the shoreline and to adapt the development accordingly. Figure 21 - Coastal erosion in Souris has required this homeowner to remove a portion of his shed (photo credit: D. Jardine). Current provincial regulations have helped to promote development at a safe distance from the shore, and have served to protect residents from developments that needlessly endanger their well-being and financial investments. The Planning Act stipulates that no subdivision development is permitted within 18.3 m (60 feet) or 60 times the annual erosion rate – whichever is greater – of the shoreline. The current North Rustico Zoning Laws (Section 4-4 51) are less stringent than requirements in non-incorporated areas and other municipalities. They require a setback of only 15 metres (50 feet) and do not consider erosion rates.

Ensuring that future development is protected from erosion and sea level rise, North Rustico could consider enacting coastal setback by-laws that go beyond provincial requirements. These should include both a horizontal setback (a distance from the coast that incorporates the rate of erosion) and a vertical setback (an elevation that provides protection from coastal flooding). The towns of Shediac, East Beaubassin, and West Beaubassin, in southern New Brunswick, already have such by- laws in place. The Town of Shediac, for example, seeks through its by-law to “anticipate, prevent and attack the causes of coastal environmental degradation”, to “only allow developments that will be able to adapt to sea-level rise and severe storm surges in zones that risk flooding” and to ensure that “for a new building the minimum elevation must be 4.3 m”.17

There may be some liability to the community for approving subdivisions and building permits in areas subject to flooding or aggressive shoreline erosion. By implementing a by-law that mandates coastal development setback distances beyond the minimum provincial requirements, North Rustico

17 Town of Shediac. Zoning By-Law 66(1) SLR Zone – Sea-Level Rise. http://www.shediac.org/pdf/zoning_by_law.pdf

could count itself among the growing number of maritime communities that are taking progressive, proactive measures in the interest of their constituents. They may also minimize liability claims from individuals who suffer damage in the future due to flooding and erosion events.

3. Encourage Provincial Land Use Planning Policies that consider Climate Change

North Rustico (like other Island communities) has the opportunity to effect change in the area of land use policy. In the spring/summer of 2012, the Department of Finance, Energy and Municipal Affairs will be forming a provincial task force to lead a public dialogue on the topic of land use policy on Prince Edward Island. Council and residents of North Rustico will have an opportunity to discuss with government representatives their concerns surrounding land use policy, including those associated with climate change impacts.

4. Promote Responsible Agricultural Practices Sedimentation within Rustico Bay can be attributed to run-off from nearby dirt roads and farmland, particularly during heavy rainfall events. Efforts to improve agricultural practices will help to reduce the amount of sediment entering local watercourses. In turn, this will help to limit the negative impact of sedimentation upon habitat and water quality. Responsible farmers are educated about the direct impacts their actions have upon surrounding watercourses, and most are acting accordingly for the betterment of their community. Whenever possible, all farmers should be encouraged to take proactive measures to minimize the impact of their operations on the local environment.

The Alternative Land Use Services (ALUS) program is a voluntary program that provides financial incentives to PEI landowners and farmers who 1) remove land from agricultural production or 2) implement beneficial management practices that protect soil and water quality or improve fish and wildlife habitat.

Financial incentives are offered to farmers who:

• plant native trees in buffer zones; • retire sensitive land by expanding buffer zones, establish non-regulated grassed headlands, and/or take high-sloped land out of agricultural production; • take land out of production to establish soil conservation structures; and/or • maintain livestock fences adjacent to watercourses and wetlands.

The community of North Rustico should work with their local watershed group and with farmers in North Rustico and the surrounding areas to promote participation in the ALUS program.

5. Increase Monitoring of Coastal Hazards Monitoring the impacts of flooding and erosion can help North Rustico to adapt and plan appropriately for future coastal impacts.

Monitoring of high water marks is a useful way to record the extent of flooding during storm surge events. High water marks, observed during storm events, can be recorded and compared with tidal data to evaluate the severity of a given storm and the vulnerability of coastal structures. This information can also be used to forecast possible impacts at high tide and/or in the event of sea level rise. High water marks can be recorded simply by observing the highest or most landward extent of flooding caused by a storm surge and marking it on a permanent structure. The mark could consist of something as simple as a painted line on the side of a building or a spike embedded into a telephone pole. Precise coordinates of these marks can then be gathered after the storm surge is over.

Monitoring of water levels (tides) was done in North Rustico from 1972 to 1996 by Fisheries and Oceans Canada. The permanent tide gauge gathered information on water levels for navigation purposes. As well, this gauge provided highly valuable information on storm surges and sea level rise. In 1996, however, the tide gauge was removed.

Re-establishing a tide gauge should be considered in North Shore. A variety of technologies exist that can help North Rustico residents to monitor water levels:

• Tide Board (low cost, less accurate). This is a simple graduated board that can be secured to the wharf. Water levels can be monitored by looking at the level of the water in comparison to the gradations. The board could also be monitored remotely by web-camera during coastal storm events. • Temporary Tide Gauge (moderate cost, more accurate). This uses a relatively simple technology to monitor water level. However, the gauge can be lost or displaced during the winter due to ice. Unfortunately this is when some of the most severe Maritime storms occur. • Permanent Tide Gauge (high cost, most accurate). This gauge is secured to structures that are stable and ice-free. These systems provide information of high quality and quantity, and are capable of transmitting data in real-time. However, they also require an independent power source and some technical expertise for successful operation.

Shoreline erosion monitoring in some of the more susceptible areas would help to record the impact of a rising sea level. There are several resources available to communities who wish to conduct shoreline erosion monitoring. One such resource is available through the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (SGSL) Coalition on Sustainability. This group has created a program to ensure continued effort toward community-based monitoring and education on coastal erosion issues. The education component of the project focuses on informing the general public and community decision-makers about coastal erosion and how to live sustainably with this natural process. The monitoring component of the project helps to build a local capacity for informed decision-making

with regard to coastal erosion. A toolkit has been developed specifically for communities in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. In cooperation with the SGSL Coalition, shoreline erosion monitoring has been initiated in Eastern Kings, PEI.18

6. Create a Climate Change Adaptation Plan Now that residents of North Rustico better understand their vulnerability, a climate change adaptation plan will help them to evaluate options and identify next steps for the community. A recent report by the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy entitled, “Paying the Price: The Economic Impacts of Climate Change for Canada”, indicates that inaction now by Canadians on climate change issues will result in a greater price to be paid down the road. It is evident from this report that early action can save taxpayers money and avoid higher costs and impacts in the future.

Fortunately, there are a number of useful tools available to North Rustico to help create a climate change adaptation plan. One of these has recently been produced by the Canadian Institute of Planners (CIP). Entitled “A Handbook for Small Canadian Municipalities”, it lays out a six-step process for climate change adaptation planning. The Town of Stratford has produced a climate change adaptation plan using the methodology described in this handbook.

7. Assess Community Infrastructure Some of North Rustico’s infrastructure is already experiencing impacts from climate related events. Erosion and flooding are threatening the coastline and wharf areas at North Rustico, Rustico Harbour, and Rusticoville. North Rustico roadways (Riverside Drive and Harbour View Drive), the wastewater treatment system, the fire hall, the community office, boardwalk, lighthouse and some bridges are also at risk (see Appendix 4).

Figure 22 - Water bubbling out of a sanitary discharge manhole at the wharf on Harbour View Drive (about 2:00 pm, December 21, 2010) (photo credit: A. Nisbet).

18 http://www.souriswl.ca/shoreline.pdf

Under the climate change scenarios developed for the community, the likelihood of coastal hazard increasing in magnitude is clear. There are a number of tools available to help assess risks to community infrastructure and to prioritize items for action. The Canadian Institute of Planners’ Handbook lays out a process to list, evaluate, and rank these risks. Another approach for assessing risk to public infrastructure (buildings, roads, storm water, waste water, and water supply systems) is proposed by Engineers Canada’s Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC). 19 With tools like these the community will be able to: 1) identify all existing and future risks, and 2) rank them in an order of priority for planning and budget purposes. Consultation with the provincial Department of Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal is recommended, because they own some of the vulnerable infrastructure assets in the community.

8. Consider Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability of Community Infrastructure Decreasing the vulnerability of existing homes, businesses, roads, and other infrastructure can be challenging. There are three basic strategies commonly considered:

Retreat or move infrastructure to a less vulnerable area. This strategy is common in Prince Edward Island. Homes, cottages, and even barns have been moved further inland to protect them from erosion and storm surges. Sometimes roads are moved further inland or completely re-routed. This approach makes sense when property owners have adequate room to do this, or when the on-going cost of storm repairs and safety concerns outweigh the costs of retreating.

Abandon property or infrastructure in vulnerable areas. Moving isn’t always an option. However, abandoning a property or parcel of land can be reasonable if the land or infrastructure is not worth protecting.

Protect property or infrastructure in vulnerable areas. Protecting the coastline from erosion (armouring) is a common practice in PEI. However, good shoreline protection systems are expensive. They can change the look of the shoreline, making it less attractive for tourism and recreational purposes.

They also reduce habitat for birds and other wildlife. Successful shoreline protection requires conscious and careful decision-making. Different approaches are better suited to different shorelines (see Appendix 5 ). Knowledge of local conditions is essential. In particular, consideration of sediment budgets (the amount of sediment brought into and leaving the system) and coastal land use is very important. Professional consultation is recommended if coastal communities are to make the best decisions possible.

19 http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/earth-sciences/projdb/pdf/211_e.pdf

Flood protection is also common in Atlantic Canada. Dykes have been used for hundreds of years to reclaim and protect coastal land. In recent years, some people have reduced flood vulnerability by building elevated structures (e.g., homes on stilts, Figure 23).

Figure 23 - Elevated house on Harbour View Drive, Rustico Harbour (photo credit: D. Jardine).

9. Increase Climate Change Awareness and Education An informed resident is a better prepared resident. Creating a community awareness of the impacts of coastal storms, flooding, and erosion will help residents to personally prepare for such events. Encouraging residents to gain an education—however general—in the area of climate change will inspire them to plan long term for the benefit of future generations.

Various low-cost options are available to communities that wish to foster greater awareness and education in the areas of climate change, coastal processes, and emergency preparedness. These include:

. Guest speakers, from local watershed groups, government agencies, or universities, may be invited to speak to the community. This could be an individual presentation or part of a series of related lectures (Figure 24).

. Promotion of relevant local community / college / university courses will help to Figure 24 - Grade 7 and 8 students at Gulf Shore School in North Rustico discuss climate change and recent local create awareness of relevant subject weather events (photo credit: D. Jardine). areas (e.g., emergency preparedness, business continuity management, watershed health, climate change).

. Public activities such as open houses, networking sessions, dances, and community barbecues foster friendship and closeness among residents. Such connections increase goodwill between neighbours, raise awareness regarding vulnerable residents, and strengthen communities in times of emergency.

. Newsletters / fact sheets – could be produced for general distribution or inserted with applications for development permits.

APPENDIX 1 Vulnerability Assessment

This vulnerability assessment consisted of a multi-step process during which the PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice (DELJ) worked closely with the community of North Rustico. The community council first selected residents from within the community whom they considered likely to contribute valuable insight to the process. DELJ then sought to gather relevant background information on the community, as well as historical accounts of weather events from several of its residents. Three meetings were held with the community’s project team. This three-part process was designed to enable residents of North Rustico to anticipate the potential impacts of climate change, and to determine the best ways to respond to them.

Part I Getting Started

Part I introduced the community to the main issues surrounding climate change and how these issues might impact them. Residents were introduced to the process of vulnerability assessment, and were able to identify which issues (e.g. flooding, coastal hazards) they deemed most likely to impact the community as the climate continues to change.

Topics covered: Introduction to weather, climate, climate change, trends, variability Introduction to the process of the vulnerability assessment Identifying vulnerabilities that may impact your community

At the end of the Part I meeting, community members identified the threat of coastal hazards as the issue which they considered to be most concerning, and which they wished to explore in greater depth in Part II of the vulnerability assessment.

Part II Climate Change Issues

Part II allowed residents to explore in more depth the vulnerabilities OPTIONS associated with coastal hazards, which they previously identified (in Part ENVIRONMENT 6 7 I) as being most important to the community. Residents considered how ISSUES 5 1 this vulnerability might be more serious at different locations in their ECONOMY community, and how it might impact their local residents, infrastructure, LOCATIONS 4 2 economy, and environment. SOCIAL 3 INFRASTRUCTURE

Topics covered: Step 1 The types of current and future weather-related vulnerabilities Step 2 Where in your community do (or will) these vulnerabilities occur? Step 3 What important infrastructure will be affected? Step 4 Which residents will be most affected and which residents can help? Step 5 How might your local economy be impacted? Step 6 How might your local natural environment be impacted? Step 7 What are the best ways to address the concerns that you have identified?

Part III Draft Report

Part III included a presentation of the results of the process, in which the work completed by the community was compiled, analyzed and reported back to them. This draft report described the vulnerabilities identified by the community as being most important, and included a brief discussion of adaptation options. The report also includes detailed maps identifying areas of vulnerability within the community. Residents were invited to offer feedback, which was then incorporated into the final report (presented here).

APPENDIX 2 North Rustico Coastline Change

1968 – 2010

The coastline between North Rustico and Cavendish is eroding at a rate between 0 and 1 m/yr (Figure A4-1). Typical rates of erosion along this section of coast are between 20-30 cm/yr for the headlands and 10-20 cm/yr for the embayments.

The north facing coastline appears to be eroding at a slightly higher rate (30 cm/yr) than the east facing coastline (15-20 cm/yr) in this area. This is probably a result of the exposure of the coastline, where the north facing coast is vulnerable to storms ranging from the northwest, north and northeast, while the east facing coastline is most vulnerable to northeast storms.

The barrier beach and island in front of Rustico are extremely dynamic. The average rate of erosion of the exposed linear coast is 41 cm/yr with standard deviation of 55 cm/yr from the 1968-2010 analysis. The outer barrier beach in 1968 has migrated landward to the point of forming an island in 2010 where the change has been flagged as anomalous. This has also resulted in the opening of the lagoon to the ocean shrinking from 1968 to 2010. The seaward coastline of the barrier beach has been retreating landward as well as generally making the island narrower.

Within the lagoon, the coastline is mostly eroding at a rate of < 1m/yr, although there are many areas where the coastline is also accreting at < 1 m/yr indicating a generally stable coast. The areas within the lagoon that have experienced > 1 m/yr of erosion are typically low lowing areas adjacent to the coast where sea level rise has inundated (blue lines).

Figure A4-1 North Rustico coastline change from 1968-2010.

2000 – 2010

The same general spatial pattern is observed for this area when examining the coastline changes from 2000 to 2010 (Figure A4-2). The north facing coastline is generally eroding at a rate > 30 cm/yr while the east facing coastline is eroding at rates < 30 cm/yr. The average rate of erosion of the exposed linear coast is 38 cm/yr with standard deviation of 80 cm/yr from the 2000-2010 analysis.

The barrier island at the mouth of the lagoon has gown is size from 2000 to 2010 and has been defined as being anomalous. There are more anomalous sections of the coast defined for the change period of 2000-2010 as a result of inundation of salt marsh areas in the lagoons and estuaries.

In general the same patterns of erosion and accretion are observed between 1968-2010 and 2000-2010. The large breakwater extending eastward at North Rustico has not stopped erosion along the coastline to the north, which has a rate of ~30 cm/yr based on 1968-2010 and in places > 100 cm/yr based on 2000-2010 results. The breakwater has protected the coastline to the south where there is no change or even a small amount of accretion.

Figure A4-2 North Rustico coastline change from 2000-2010.

APPENDIX 3 Climate Change Scenarios

The climate data presented here were compiled by W. Richards Climate Consulting and R.J. Daigle Enviro, as commissioned by Natural Resource Canada’s Regional Adaptation Collaborative (RAC). Climate scenario data were developed for eight PEI locations (Alberton, O’Leary, Summerside, Long River, Charlottetown, Bangor, East Baltic, Monticello and Alliston). Climate data for the Long River/Rustico area are presented here, as they most accurately reflect the climate of North Rustico.

Temperature and Precipitation The climate data presented in Tables 3 and 4, respectively, provide present-day values (1980s) and future scenarios (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) for temperature and precipitation. All values refer to a 30-year period with the label referring to the middle decade. The seasons are broken down as follows: Winter (December, January, February), Spring (March, April, May), Summer (June, July, August) and Autumn (September, October, November).

Some things to note:

While temperature and precipitation values are likely to increase in future, the table shows that the greatest increase is in the winter values. Higher precipitation does not necessarily translate to wetter soil conditions. More evaporation due to warmer temperatures can consume water and produce larger water deficits in warm seasons. See paragraph below on water surpluses and deficits. The Standard Deviations (SD) indicate increasing ranges of uncertainty in future scenarios. This could be due to two factors: increasing variability of future climate conditions or increasing uncertainty in the climate model projections. In either case future adaptation choices should consider the possible ranges of uncertainty. Like the uncertainty in crustal movement this is an area of active research which will be resolved over time.

The same time periods used to present temperature and precipitation data have been used for the following climate parameters, as shown in Tables 3 and 4, and as defined below:

o Heating Degree Days (HDD) o Freeze Free Season (days) o Cooling Degree Days (CDD) o Days with rain o Hot Days (Tmax 30) o Days with snow o Very Hot Days Tmax >35) o Freeze-Thaw Cycles o Cold Days (Tmax < -10) . Annual o Very Cold Days (Tmax < -20) . Seasonal o Growing Degree Days >5 o Water Surplus (mm) o Growing Degree Days >10 o Water Deficit (mm) o Growing Season Length (days) o Change (Δ) in Intensity of Short o Corn Heat Units (CHU) Period Rainfall (%) o Corn Season Length (days) Heating Degree Days (HDD) This parameter is directly related to space heating demands. If present energy consumption for space heating is 1000 kilowatt-hour/yr and HDD decreases by 20%, then – all other factors being equal – the space heating requirement will also decrease by 20%. Warmer winter and shoulder season temperatures are likely to reduce the requirement for heating in the Maritimes.

Cooling Degree Days (CDD) CDD is a similar index to HDD but is directly related to the energy required for air conditioning. Warmer summer temperatures are likely to increase cooling demand, but the effect will vary by municipality. Coastal locations will have cooler weather due to the moderating effect of the ocean, while inland locations will be more vulnerable to heat.

Hot Days and Very Hot Days Hot Days (i.e. days when the maximum temperature exceeds 30°C) are relatively rare on Prince Edward Island in the present climate. They are approximately 10 times more frequent in Windsor, ON where they occur on an average of 20 days per year. Very Hot Days (Maximum > 35°C) are almost unknown to Maritimers. To deal with extreme heat episodes other cities in Canada have implemented heat health alert systems and responses like air conditioned public cooling centers, heat alerts and vulnerable population monitoring.

Cold Days and Very Cold Days Many Islanders are already adapted to dealing with cold days, as they are endemic to living in Canada. However, cold weather is still a hardship for many people, particularly those who are considered to be more vulnerable (e.g. elderly, disabled). Fewer cold days (i.e. days when the maximum temperature does not exceed -10°C) and very cold days (i.e. days when the maximum temperature does not exceed - 20°C) are anticipated across the board in future.

Growing Degree Days Growing degree days are a parameter related to plant growth. The lower threshold temperature (5°C) usually applies to forage crops such as hay. The higher threshold (10°C) applies to heat-loving crops such as beans or tomatoes. Varieties of agricultural crops, ornamentals, and trees often have GDD ratings associated with them. These ratings can be used along with other eco-parameters to choose varieties that will grow best under the applicable climate conditions. For immediate choices it is probably more important to consider climate ratings for plants with long lifetimes rather than annual flowers, for example. Long lived plants (trees) will experience changing conditions over their lifetimes. Climate scenarios indicate substantial changes to the GDD climate on Prince Edward Island.

Growing Season Length and Freeze-Free Season Growing season length refers to the period (in days) available to farmers for crop growth. Freeze-free season refers to the period (in days) during the year when frost is absent. It is expected that both parameters will increase by 1 to 2 months by the end of the century. Consideration of these parameters for their application in adaptation actions could be:

Agricultural or horticultural facilities Maintenance of parks, playing fields and other outdoor recreation facilities

Corn Heat Units (CHU) and Corn Season Length (days) These corn heat parameters should be used with expert agronomic guidance. They are related to agricultural crops that are presently grown in the Maritimes but are more common in areas with warmer climates. Substantial increases in CHUs and the corn growing season raise the possibility of changing agricultural crops.

Days with Rain and Days with Snow Climate scenarios indicate a general increase in the number of days with rain and a decline in the number of days with snowfall. This trend is to be expected in light of predictions that more snow days will be converted to rain days. Fewer snow days would have positive impacts on snow clearing budgets but negative impacts on winter recreation activities.

Freeze-Thaw Cycles Freeze-thaw cycles are the number of days per year when the temperature passes through the melting point. They are generally related to stress on the built environment (e.g. concrete deterioration, potholes) but are also important in winter survival of some plants like strawberries. It should be noted that while the number of annual freeze-thaw cycles decreases over time due to a warmer climate, the number of freeze-thaw cycles in winter stays nearly the same or increases.

Water Surplus and Water Deficit (mm) These numbers are derived by using a water balance model. The surplus can be thought of as excess runoff. The deficit is water that could evaporate if it were available to do so. Water deficit is a drought indicator. It is interesting to note that even though precipitation is projected to increase in the future at all sites, the water surpluses are mostly projected to decrease and water deficits to increase. These indicators – especially increased summer water deficits – should be considered when assessing fresh water supplies. Many municipalities have undertaken water management reviews to identify, protect and enhance fresh water resources. Protection methods include metering, restrictions to lawn watering & washing cars. Diminished fresh water availability during the growing season could increase the need for crop irrigation.

Change in Intensity of Short Period Rainfall (%) Short period (≤ 24 hours) rainfall intensities are used by hydrologists and engineers in the design of public infrastructure that requires water handling capacity. Rainfall runoff affects storm sewers, culverts, detention ponds, drainage pump stations, roads, wastewater management infrastructure, and private structures like roof drainage systems. Short period rainfall values based on historical data are published by Environment Canada for 549 locations across Canada (Environment Canada, 2011). Information on the impact of climate change on short period rainfall rates is inconclusive at this point in time as there is no standard or accepted research methodology to determine how future sub-daily extreme rainfall could change in intensity and frequency at point locations or over a small area in the future climate (Canadian Standards Association, 2010). Global and regional climate models operate at spatial and temporal scales which do not capture the small scale storms that are responsible for extreme short period rainfalls. Many hydro technical engineers are already incorporating these adjustments in to their designs. Until such time that official standards are updated, municipalities have the latitude to specify that their infrastructure be designed for future climate conditions. For a detailed discussion of rainfall extremes and their application in Canada, the document Canadian Standards Association (2010) is recommended.

APPENDIX 4 Vulnerable Infrastructure

Through this vulnerability assessment, the following infrastructure has been identified as vulnerable to the impacts of climate change:

Infrastructure Vulnerability Reference Shoreline below boardwalk Erosion p. 6-7, 9-10 Shoreline west of breakwater Erosion p. 6-7, 9-10 Campground, Robinson’s Island Erosion p. 7, 9 Riverside Drive Flooding p. 6, 8, 11-12, 16-18 Harbour View Drive Flooding p. 6, 8, 11-12, 16-18, 26, 28 Rustico Harbour (homes, businesses) Flooding, loss of emergency services p. 6, 11-12, 16-18 Lantern Hill (homes) Loss of emergency services p. 6, 11-12, 16-18 North Rustico Fire Hall Flooding, loss of emergency services p. 6, 11-12, 16-18 Waste water treatment facility Flooding, loss of function p. 6, 12-13, 16-17, 19 Riverside Drive playground Flooding p. 12 Rusticoville Bridge Flooding, blocked roadway p. 19 North Rustico Harbour Lighthouse Erosion, storm p. 1, 6

APPENDIX 5 Types of Shoreline Protection

Communities seeking to pursue shoreline protection have many options:

Hard protection consists of large, man-made structures designed to withstand storm surge, flooding and erosion along the coastline. Examples include seawalls, armour stone, sandstone boulders, concrete bulkheads, gabion baskets and breakwaters. Dykes and tide gates are examples of hard protection designed for flood protection. Hard protection systems can be effective over the long term, but they are expensive to install.

Soft protection includes the establishment (or re-establishment) of dunes, offshore reefs and beaches offshore of the current shoreline with imported sand (a process called “beach nourishment”). Sediment can often be retrieved from nearby sources. Another example of soft protection is the planting of vegetation as a means of stabilizing coastal banks. Soft protection requires scheduled maintenance (e.g. 5 years), but is less expensive and invasive than hard protection.

Hybrid protection consists of a combination of hard and soft shoreline protection.

Shoreline protection structures require detailed planning and design in order to meet the conditions in which they are placed. Such planning in turn requires a knowledge of the type of wave action, currents, fetch, sea level rise, erosion processes, sea ice, bathymetry, geology, storm water flow and other factors. Consultation with a coastal engineer who specializes in coastal protection structures is recommended prior to choosing a particular type of shoreline protection.

For additional reference, several shore protection manuals are available when considering the installation of a shoreline protection system.

Maryland Department of Natural Resources. 2006. Shore Erosion Control Guidelines for Waterfront Property Owners. www.dnr.state.md.us/ccws/sec/download/waterfrontpropertyownersguide.pdf O’Neill, Charles R., Jr. 1986. Structural Methods for Controlling Coastal Erosion. Information Bulletin 200. Ithaca, NY: Cornell Cooperative Extension. United States Army Corps of Engineers. 1984. Shore Protection Manual. Volume 1. Vicksburg, Miss. Department of the Army, Waterways Experiment Station, Corps of Engineers, Coastal Engineering Research Center, Washington, DC. Virigina Institute of Marine Science. 2010. Living Shoreline Design Guidelines for Shore Protection in Virginia’s Estuarine Environments. College of William and Mary, Gloucester Point, Virginia. APPENDIX 6 Available Resources

There are many resources available to PEI communities who wish to engage in climate change adaptation planning in their area. Some of these resources can be found in the following sections:

1. Climate Change Scenarios 2. Monitoring 3. Mapping 4. Historical Resources 5. Emergency Response 6. Planning

1. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

Climate change scenarios are science-based predictions of future climate. These scenarios can provide valuable information about what local changes can be expected with regard to temperature and precipitation patterns. Climate change scenarios for different locations on PEI have been developed by the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN – Atlantic Node), based at the University of Prince Edward Island.

The Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN) allows communities to access vast amounts of climate data and climate scenarios specific to their area. The Localizer is a particularly useful tool for communities who wish to view reliable climate predictions for their area.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN – Atlantic Node) can be found at: http://atlantic.cccsn.ca. The Localizer tool can be accessed at http://atlantic.cccsn.ca/?page=viz- localizer.

2. MONITORING

Monitoring refers to the process of observing changes in the natural environment. Monitoring data can give us valuable information about what kinds of short-term and long-term changes are happening in the areas of climate, stream flow, erosion and sea ice.

a) Climate monitoring

Historical climate data can provide information such as temperature and precipitation normals (monthly averages, minimums, maximums) for a given location. Climate data can also show trends; that is, it can show whether a certain climatic variable (e.g. days with precipitation) is increasing or decreasing over time.

In addition to the data provided in this vulnerability assessment, historical climate data can also be accessed through Environment Canada’s National Climate Data and Information Archive.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

. Climate data can be obtained from:

National Climate Data and Information Archive Environment Canada View it online at: http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca

A community-based climate monitoring program is also being explored by the UPEI Climate Research Unit. Communities interested in participating in such a program should contact the group at [email protected].

b) Stream flow monitoring

Stream flow monitoring provides valuable information about the nature and timing of changes in stream water flow. There are over 100 data collection stations on PEI that are collecting real time information on stream flow and climate data. From these stations, a range of stream flow data is collected. This information can be used to predict the timing of high water-flow events.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

. Water monitoring data can be obtained from:

PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice Environment Division, Watershed Management Section Tel. (902) 368-5044 View it online at: www.gov.pe.ca/eef/index.php3?number=1032151&lang=E

Environment Canada / Water Survey of Canada View it online at: www.wateroffice.ec.gc.ca

c) Shoreline Erosion monitoring

Monitoring of shoreline erosion can provide useful information about coastal change.

Shoreline erosion can be monitored using corrected aerial photos (orthophotos). Through use of orthophotos, PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice has calculated erosion rates for the periods 1968-2010 and 2000-2010.

Shoreline erosion monitoring can also be conducted in the field. It is simple, easy-to-learn, and can be carried out by communities. The Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Coalition on Sustainability has initiated the Coastal Erosion Monitoring and Awareness Project, whereby communities receive a toolkit to monitor coastal change in their area.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

. Shoreline erosion data can be obtained from:

PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice

Environment Division, Climate Change Section Tel. (902) 368-5024

. Shoreline erosion monitoring toolkits can be obtained from:

Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Coalition on Sustainability

Coastal Erosion Monitoring and Awareness Project Tel. (506) 336-9005 or email [email protected]

View it online at: http://coalition-sgsl.ca/CEMEP.php

d) Sea ice monitoring

Changes in the amount of sea ice can reflect changes in temperature. As the climate continues to warm, it is expected that the amount of sea ice will decrease. Decreases in the amount of sea ice can mean increased vulnerability for coastal communities, as the ice acts as a protective barrier against storm surge and erosion. The timing of floods can be predicted for certain (Source: Natural Resources Canada) areas based on radar images. This radar image (above right) shows sea ice off the north shore of PEI, near Tracadie Bay. Monitoring when and where the amounts of sea ice are changing can help communities to better prepare for the impacts of climate change.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

. Radar images can be obtained from: ADVANCED RESOURCE

Natural Resources Canada Radar imagery can be complex and Earth Sciences Sector, GeoGratis difficult to interpret, particularly for View it online at: those who have not used it before. http://geogratis.cgdi.gc.ca/geogratis/en/index.html

and at:

National Climate Data and Information Archive http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar

3. MAPPING

There is a range of mapping resources available to help you in looking at climate change impacts. These include:

flood risk maps topographic maps orthophotos satellite images aerial photographs GIS data

Flood risk map Topographic maps Google Earth

Flood risk maps are available Topographic maps such as this Google Earth is free software for many communities in the one of Mt. Stewart, PEI, show that shows images of the province. The map above the shape of the landscape. earth. This tool can be useful describes the likely extent of These maps can be used to see to show landscape features, flooding in Charlottetown, PEI, the location of the low-lying and to see what areas might in the event of a tsunami parts of the community. be at risk of flooding. Souris, similar to that experienced in PEI, is pictured here. Sendai, Japan, in March 2011.

Aerial photos and orthophotos can be extremely helpful when monitoring changes to the coastline over the years. Tracadie Bay, PEI, is depicted in the two orthophotos above. An orthophoto from 2002 (left) shows how – until recently – Blooming Point nearly closed off the mouth of the Bay, while an orthophoto from 2010 (right) captures the newly-eroded channel that has cut through the dunes and opened a second point of access.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

. Flood risk maps for some PEI communities may be obtained from: PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice Climate Change Coordinator Tel. (902) 368-5024 . Topographic maps for PEI can be obtained from Natural Resources Canada Earth Sciences Sector, GeoGratis, CanMatrix Digital Topographic Maps of Canada View them online at: http://geogratis.gc.ca/geogratis/en/product/search.do?id=CB864DC7-25A1-5136-

57F4-C095CE1C6A6D . Google Earth is available for free online at: www.google.com/earth . Aerial photos and orthophotos are available through PEI Department of Agriculture and Forestry for free and at cost. Access the PEI GIS Data Catalog at: http://www.gov.pe.ca/gis/index.php3?number=77543&lang=E. .

Geographic Information System (GIS) Data The Government of PEI offers various types of GIS data online. . Emergency Data - Emergency data includes ambulance coverage, police coverage, fire coverage and emergency service zones. Transportation Data - Transportation data includes locations of survey monuments, road networks, bridge structures and the Confederation Trail. Property Data - Property data includes property line data and property assessment data. Community and Social Boundary Data – Community and social boundary data includes county, township and municipal boundary data, as well as building outlines, parishes and parks. Also included are waste management tax areas, special planning areas and school districts. . Interactive Maps – An online interactive map showing the locations of local PEI businesses, energy infrastructure (e.g. 3-phase power, fibre optic network), natural features (e.g. forest, sand dune, salt marsh), and real estate (e.g. commercial, farm, recreational, residential) is provided by the Government of PEI. Maps displaying current road construction sites, road conditions, sport facilities, real estate, and historic sites can also be created.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

. Geographic Information System (GIS) data for PEI is available both for free and for a

fee at: www.gov.pe.ca/gis

4. HISTORICAL RESOURCES

Past events and experiences can provide insight into the nature and location of future vulnerabilities. Newspapers, photographs, and other archives may provide documentation of historical weather events. Local knowledge and oral history from community members and groups can be especially valuable.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

A vast collection of newspapers, images, stories and other historical resources can be found at http://islandarchives.ca at the University of Prince Edward Island. Island Lives – a comprehensive online collection of PEI’s local histories and related publications Island Newspapers – a comprehensive collection of PEI’s historical newspapers Island Voices – a vast oral history audio archive created by well-known Island historian and broadcaster Reg “Dutch” Thompson Island Stories – currently a work-in-progress, this collaboration will provide a digital presentation and geographic association of historic Island materials Island Images – also a work-in-progress, this archive will bring together a complete collection of Island visual heritage Island Imagined – a comprehensive collection of PEI maps, produced in collaboration with Public Archives and Records Office and the PEI Museum and Heritage Foundation

5. EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Social and emergency services agencies Local police departments, fire departments, the Canadian Coast Guard, and PEI Ground Search- and-Rescue (SAR) organizations can respond in the event of an emergency. PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice can respond in the event of an environmental emergency (e.g. petroleum / pesticide / chemical spills, air quality incidents, fish / wildlife mortality).

Volunteer Organizations Volunteer organizations that could assist residents in the event of an emergency include agencies such as the Red Cross, the Salvation Army, the Lions Club, Royal Canadian Legion, Knights of Columbus, church and women’s groups.

Federal Financial Assistance Programs The Joint Emergency Preparedness Program (JEPP) and Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements (DFAA) are national funding programs established to assist with costs related to emergency preparation and response, respectively.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

Police and fire departments can be found in your local directory. Call 911 in the event of an emergency.

The Canadian Coast Guard information can be obtained at: http://www.ccg-gcc.gc.ca/eng/CCG/Home

PEI Ground Search-and-Rescue information can be obtained at: http://peisara.ca

PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice can be contacted in the event of an environmental emergency at 1-800-565-1633 (24 hrs / 7days a week).

Volunteer organizations can be found in your local directory.

Financial Assistance Programs can be viewed at: http://www.gov.pe.ca/jps/index.php3?number=1005259

For the Office of Public Safety and the Emergency Measures Organization, please visit: http://www.gov.pe.ca/jps/index.php3?number=1030396

6. PLANNING

PEI Office of Public Safety / Emergency Measures Organization (EMO) The Office of Public Safety offers assistance to municipalities who wish to enhance their emergency preparedness. The EMO can assist municipalities in the areas of emergency management plans, hazard risk assessment, business continuity management and crisis communication planning. Public Safety Officers are available to speak to your community or service group, municipal organization, or business about corporate, municipal or personal emergency preparedness. There is no charge for this service.

PEI Community Accounts Community Accounts is a valuable source of community, regional and provincial data for PEI. Available data include demographics, employment and working conditions, as well as health, income and infrastructure data.

Case studies Learning from the experiences from other communities can help with understanding the potential costs associated with flooding events.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

For the Office of Public Safety and the Emergency Measures Organization, please visit: http://www.gov.pe.ca/jps/index.php3?number=1030396. For more information about contacting a Public Safety Officer to come and speak to your community, call (902) 894-0385 or email [email protected].

PEI Community Accounts can be viewed at: http://pe.communityaccounts.ca

Case studies may be obtained from other neighbouring municipalities and communities. Some examples of climate change adaptation work are included here and can also be accessed through the Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association at www.atlanticadaptation.ca.

Emergency, Transportation, Property and Community and Social Boundary data are available online. Property data are available for a cost, while the other data are free: http://www.gov.pe.ca/gis/index.php3?number=77543

Interactive maps are available for free online: http://www.gov.pe.ca/maps

EcoAction Community Funding Program (Environment Canada) The EcoAction Community Funding Program provides funding to community groups that seek to improve air and water quality, rehabilitate the natural environment, and increase their knowledge and skills in the area of environmental sustainability. Municipal governments are eligible for this funding, but local environmental groups and community groups are eligible.

Species at Risk Public Registry The Species at Risk Public Registry includes a list of all wildlife species at risk in Canada, species profiles, recovery strategies, action plans, management plans, and ways in which people can assist with species recovery.

Habitat Stewardship Program for Species at Risk (Environment Canada) The Habitat Stewardship Program for Species at Risk aims to protect species at risk and their habitats. The program promotes land and resource use practices that preserve habitat for the survival and recovery of species at risk.

Local Watershed Groups Community watershed groups work to restore and maintain watershed health on PEI. They are a valuable source of local knowledge and expertise.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

EcoAction Community Funding Program (Environment Canada) can be viewed at: http://www.ec.gc.ca/ecoaction/default.asp?lang=En&n=FA475FEB-1.

Species at Risk Public Registry can be viewed at: http://www.sararegistry.gc.ca.

Habitat Stewardship Program for Species at Risk (Environment Canada) can be viewed at: http://www.ec.gc.ca/hsp- pih/default.asp?lang=En&n=59BF488F-1.

The PEI Watershed Alliance is composed of all community-based watershed groups on PEI. Its membership can be viewed at:

http://peiwatershedalliance.org/web/?page_id=3.

A variety of tools exists in the areas of risk management and climate change adaptation. Natural Resources Canada has made available a series of tools designed to assist decision- makers in these areas.

Risk management tools allow for assessment of climate change risk to communities, regions, infrastructure and businesses. Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk Based Guide for Local Governments and Infrastructure Climate Risk Protocol are both useful risk management tools.

Adaptation planning tools can guide communities from the process of risk or vulnerability assessment through to the identification and implementation of adaptation options. Changing Climate, Changing Communities: Guide for Municipal Climate Adaptation and Canadian Communities’ Guidebook for Adaptation to Climate Change are examples of such tools. Another guide – Land use planning tools for local adaptation to climate change – will soon be released through the Regional Adaptation Collaborative.

 WHERE CAN I GET THIS RESOURCE?

Risk Management Tools and Adaptation Planning Tools, including those listed above, are available at: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/tools/abosuj_e.php.

Land use planning tools for local adaptation to climate change can be obtained from: PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice Climate Change Coordinator Tel. (902) 368-5024