A Survey of Discrete Choice Models
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The Mixed Logit Model: the State of Practice and Warnings for the Unwary
The Mixed Logit Model: The State of Practice and Warnings for the Unwary David A. Hensher Institute of Transport Studies Faculty of Economics and Business The University of Sydney NSW 2006 Australia [email protected] William H. Greene Department of Economics Stern School of Business New York University New York USA [email protected] 28 November 2001 Abstract The mixed logit model is considered to be the most promising state of the art discrete choice model currently available. Increasingly researchers and practitioners are estimating mixed logit models of various degrees of sophistication with mixtures of revealed preference and stated preference data. It is timely to review progress in model estimation since the learning curve is steep and the unwary are likely to fall into a chasm if not careful. These chasms are very deep indeed given the complexity of the mixed logit model. Although the theory is relatively clear, estimation and data issues are far from clear. Indeed there is a great deal of potential mis-inference consequent on trying to extract increased behavioural realism from data that are often not able to comply with the demands of mixed logit models. Possibly for the first time we now have an estimation method that requires extremely high quality data if the analyst wishes to take advantage of the extended behavioural capabilities of such models. This paper focuses on the new opportunities offered by mixed logit models and some issues to be aware of to avoid misuse of such advanced discrete choice methods by the practitioner1. Key Words: Mixed logit, Random Parameters, Estimation, Simulation, Data Quality, Model Specification, Distributions 1. -
MNP: R Package for Fitting the Multinomial Probit Model
JSS Journal of Statistical Software May 2005, Volume 14, Issue 3. http://www.jstatsoft.org/ MNP: R Package for Fitting the Multinomial Probit Model Kosuke Imai David A. van Dyk Princeton University University of California, Irvine Abstract MNP is a publicly available R package that fits the Bayesian multinomial probit model via Markov chain Monte Carlo. The multinomial probit model is often used to analyze the discrete choices made by individuals recorded in survey data. Examples where the multi- nomial probit model may be useful include the analysis of product choice by consumers in market research and the analysis of candidate or party choice by voters in electoral studies. The MNP software can also fit the model with different choice sets for each in- dividual, and complete or partial individual choice orderings of the available alternatives from the choice set. The estimation is based on the efficient marginal data augmentation algorithm that is developed by Imai and van Dyk (2005). Keywords: data augmentation, discrete choice models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, preference data. 1. Introduction This paper illustrates how to use MNP, a publicly available R (R Development Core Team 2005) package, in order to fit the Bayesian multinomial probit model via Markov chain Monte Carlo. The multinomial probit model is often used to analyze the discrete choices made by individuals recorded in survey data. Examples where the multinomial probit model may be useful include the analysis of product choice by consumers in market research and the analysis of candidate or party choice by voters in electoral studies. The MNP software can also fit the model with different choice sets for each individual, and complete or partial individual choice orderings of the available alternatives from the choice set. -
Using Latent Class Analysis and Mixed Logit Model to Explore Risk Factors On
Accident Analysis and Prevention 129 (2019) 230–240 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Accident Analysis and Prevention journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/aap Using latent class analysis and mixed logit model to explore risk factors on T driver injury severity in single-vehicle crashes ⁎ Zhenning Lia, Qiong Wua, Yusheng Cib, Cong Chenc, Xiaofeng Chend, Guohui Zhanga, a Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2540 Dole Street, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA b Department of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, 73 Huanghe Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150090, China c Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida, 4202 East Fowler Avenue, CUT100, Tampa, FL 33620, USA d School of Automation, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an, 710129, China ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: The single-vehicle crash has been recognized as a critical crash type due to its high fatality rate. In this study, a Unobserved heterogeneity two-year crash dataset including all single-vehicle crashes in New Mexico is adopted to analyze the impact of Latent class analysis contributing factors on driver injury severity. In order to capture the across-class heterogeneous effects, a latent Mixed logit model class approach is designed to classify the whole dataset by maximizing the homogeneous effects within each Driver injury severity cluster. The mixed logit model is subsequently developed on each cluster to account for the within-class un- observed heterogeneity and to further analyze the dataset. According to the estimation results, several variables including overturn, fixed object, and snowing, are found to be normally distributed in the observations in the overall sample, indicating there exist some heterogeneous effects in the dataset. -
Chapter 3: Discrete Choice
Chapter 3: Discrete Choice Joan Llull Microeconometrics IDEA PhD Program I. Binary Outcome Models A. Introduction In this chapter we analyze several models to deal with discrete outcome vari- ables. These models that predict in which of m mutually exclusive categories the outcome of interest falls. In this section m = 2, this is, we consider binary or dichotomic variables (e.g. whether to participate or not in the labor market, whether to have a child or not, whether to buy a good or not, whether to take our kid to a private or to a public school,...). In the next section we generalize the results to multiple outcomes. It is convenient to assume that the outcome y takes the value of 1 for cat- egory A, and 0 for category B. This is very convenient because, as a result, −1 PN N i=1 yi = Pr[c A is selected]. As a consequence of this property, the coeffi- cients of a linear regression model can be interpreted as marginal effects of the regressors on the probability of choosing alternative A. And, in the non-linear models, it allows us to write the likelihood function in a very compact way. B. The Linear Probability Model A simple approach to estimate the effect of x on the probability of choosing alternative A is the linear regression model. The OLS regression of y on x provides consistent estimates of the sample-average marginal effects of regressors x on the probability of choosing alternative A. As a result, the linear model is very useful for exploratory purposes. -
Using a Laplace Approximation to Estimate the Random Coefficients
Using a Laplace Approximation to Estimate the Random Coe±cients Logit Model by Non-linear Least Squares1 Matthew C. Harding2 Jerry Hausman3 September 13, 2006 1We thank Ketan Patel for excellent research assistance. We thank Ronald Butler, Kenneth Train, Joan Walker and participants at the MIT Econometrics Lunch Seminar and at the Harvard Applied Statistics Workshop for comments. 2Department of Economics, MIT; and Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard Uni- versity. Email: [email protected] 3Department of Economics, MIT. E-mail: [email protected]. Abstract Current methods of estimating the random coe±cients logit model employ simulations of the distribution of the taste parameters through pseudo-random sequences. These methods su®er from di±culties in estimating correlations between parameters and computational limitations such as the curse of dimensionality. This paper provides a solution to these problems by approximating the integral expression of the expected choice probability using a multivariate extension of the Laplace approximation. Simulation results reveal that our method performs very well, both in terms of accuracy and computational time. 1 Introduction Understanding discrete economic choices is an important aspect of modern economics. McFadden (1974) introduced the multinomial logit model as a model of choice behavior derived from a random utility framework. An individual i faces the choice between K di®erent goods i = 1::K. The utility to individual i from consuming good j is given by 0 0 Uij = xij¯+²ij, where xij corresponds to a set of choice relevant characteristics speci¯c to the consumer-good pair (i; j). The error component ²ij is assumed to be independently identi- cally distributed with an extreme value distribution f(²ij) = exp(¡²ij) exp(¡ exp(¡²ij)): If the individual iis constrained to choose a single good within the available set, utility maximization implies that the good j will be chosen over all other goods l 6= j such that Uij > Uil, for all l 6= j. -
Multilevel Logistic Regression for Polytomous Data and Rankings
Integre Tech. Pub. Co., Inc. Psychometrika June 30, 2003 8:34 a.m. skrondal Page 267 PSYCHOMETRIKA—VOL. 68, NO. 2, 267–287 JUNE 2003 MULTILEVEL LOGISTIC REGRESSION FOR POLYTOMOUS DATA AND RANKINGS ANDERS SKRONDAL DIVISION OF EPIDEMIOLOGY NORWEGIAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC HEALTH, OSLO SOPHIA RABE-HESKETH DEPARTMENT OF BIOSTATISTICS AND COMPUTING INSTITUTE OF PSYCHIATRY, LONDON We propose a unifying framework for multilevel modeling of polytomous data and rankings, ac- commodating dependence induced by factor and/or random coefficient structures at different levels. The framework subsumes a wide range of models proposed in disparate methodological literatures. Partial and tied rankings, alternative specific explanatory variables and alternative sets varying across units are handled. The problem of identification is addressed. We develop an estimation and prediction method- ology for the model framework which is implemented in the generally available gllamm software. The methodology is applied to party choice and rankings from the 1987–1992 panel of the British Election Study. Three levels are considered: elections, voters and constituencies. Key words: multilevel models, generalized linear latent and mixed models, factor models, random co- efficient models, polytomous data, rankings, first choice, discrete choice, permutations, nominal data, gllamm. Introduction Two kinds of nominal outcome variable are considered in this article; unordered polytomous variables and permutations. The outcome for a unit in the unordered polytomous case is one among several objects, whereas the outcome in the permutation case is a particular ordering of objects. The objects are nominal in the sense that they do not possess an inherent ordering shared by all units as is assumed for ordinal variables. -
Lecture 6 Multiple Choice Models Part II – MN Probit, Ordered Choice
RS – Lecture 17 Lecture 6 Multiple Choice Models Part II – MN Probit, Ordered Choice 1 DCM: Different Models • Popular Models: 1. Probit Model 2. Binary Logit Model 3. Multinomial Logit Model 4. Nested Logit model 5. Ordered Logit Model • Relevant literature: - Train (2003): Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation - Franses and Paap (2001): Quantitative Models in Market Research - Hensher, Rose and Greene (2005): Applied Choice Analysis 1 RS – Lecture 17 Model – IIA: Alternative Models • In the MNL model we assumed independent nj with extreme value distributions. This essentially created the IIA property. • This is the main weakness of the MNL model. • The solution to the IIA problem is to relax the independence between the unobserved components of the latent utility, εi. • Solutions to IIA – Nested Logit Model, allowing correlation between some choices. – Models allowing correlation among the εi’s, such as MP Models. – Mixed or random coefficients models, where the marginal utilities associated with choice characteristics vary between individuals. Multinomial Probit Model • Changing the distribution of the error term in the RUM equation leads to alternative models. • A popular alternative: The εij’s follow an independent standard normal distributions for all i,j. • We retain independence across subjects but we allow dependence across alternatives, assuming that the vector εi = (εi1,εi2, , εiJ) follows a multivariate normal distribution, but with arbitrary covariance matrix Ω. 2 RS – Lecture 17 Multinomial Probit Model • The vector εi = (εi1,εi2, , εiJ) follows a multivariate normal distribution, but with arbitrary covariance matrix Ω. • The model is called the Multinomial probit model. It produces results similar results to the MNL model after standardization. -
A Multinomial Probit Model with Latent Factors: Identification and Interpretation Without a Measurement System
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 11042 A Multinomial Probit Model with Latent Factors: Identification and Interpretation without a Measurement System Rémi Piatek Miriam Gensowski SEPTEMBER 2017 DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 11042 A Multinomial Probit Model with Latent Factors: Identification and Interpretation without a Measurement System Rémi Piatek University of Copenhagen Miriam Gensowski University of Copenhagen and IZA SEPTEMBER 2017 Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but IZA takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The IZA Institute of Labor Economics is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market issues. Supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, IZA runs the world’s largest network of economists, whose research aims to provide answers to the global labor market challenges of our time. Our key objective is to build bridges between academic research, policymakers and society. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. IZA – Institute of Labor Economics Schaumburg-Lippe-Straße 5–9 Phone: +49-228-3894-0 53113 Bonn, Germany Email: [email protected] www.iza.org IZA DP No. 11042 SEPTEMBER 2017 ABSTRACT A Multinomial Probit Model with Latent Factors: Identification and Interpretation without a Measurement System* We develop a parametrization of the multinomial probit model that yields greater insight into the underlying decision-making process, by decomposing the error terms of the utilities into latent factors and noise. -
Nlogit — Nested Logit Regression
Title stata.com nlogit — Nested logit regression Description Quick start Menu Syntax Options Remarks and examples Stored results Methods and formulas References Also see Description nlogit performs full information maximum-likelihood estimation for nested logit models. These models relax the assumption of independently distributed errors and the independence of irrelevant alternatives inherent in conditional and multinomial logit models by clustering similar alternatives into nests. By default, nlogit uses a parameterization that is consistent with a random utility model (RUM). Before version 10 of Stata, a nonnormalized version of the nested logit model was fit, which you can request by specifying the nonnormalized option. You must use nlogitgen to generate a new categorical variable to specify the branches of the nested logit tree before calling nlogit. Quick start Create variables identifying alternatives at higher levels For a three-level nesting structure, create l2alt identifying four alternatives at level two based on the variable balt, which identifies eight bottom-level alternatives nlogitgen l2alt = balt(l2alt1: balt1 | balt2, l2alt2: balt3 | balt4, /// l2alt3: balt5 | balt6, l2alt4: balt7 | balt8) Same as above, defining l2alt from values of balt rather than from value labels nlogitgen l2alt = balt(l2alt1: 1|2, l2alt2: 3|4, l2alt3: 5|6, /// l2alt4: 7|8) Create talt identifying top-level alternatives based on the four alternatives in l2alt nlogitgen talt = l2alt(talt1: l2alt1 | l2alt2, talt2: l2alt3 | l2alt4) Examine tree structure -
Simulating Generalized Linear Models
6 Simulating Generalized Linear Models 6.1 INTRODUCTION In the previous chapter, we dug much deeper into simulations, choosing to focus on the standard linear model for all the reasons we discussed. However, most social scientists study processes that do not conform to the assumptions of OLS. Thus, most social scientists must use a wide array of other models in their research. Still, they could benefit greatly from conducting simulations with them. In this chapter, we discuss several models that are extensions of the linear model called generalized linear models (GLMs). We focus on how to simulate their DGPs and evaluate the performance of estimators designed to recover those DGPs. Specifically, we examine binary, ordered, unordered, count, and duration GLMs. These models are not quite as straightforward as OLS because the depen- dent variables are not continuous and unbounded. As we show below, this means we need to use a slightly different strategy to combine our systematic and sto- chastic components when simulating the data. None of these examples are meant to be complete accounts of the models; readers should have some familiarity beforehand.1 After showing several GLM examples, we close this chapter with a brief discus- sion of general computational issues that arise when conducting simulations. You will find that several of the simulations we illustrate in this chapter take much longer to run than did those from the previous chapter. As the DGPs get more demanding to simulate, the statistical estimators become more computationally demanding, and the simulation studies we want to conduct increase in complexity, we can quickly find ourselves doing projects that require additional resources. -
Estimation of Logit and Probit Models Using Best, Worst and Best-Worst Choices Paolo Delle Site, Karim Kilani, Valerio Gatta, Edoardo Marcucci, André De Palma
Estimation of Logit and Probit models using best, worst and best-worst choices Paolo Delle Site, Karim Kilani, Valerio Gatta, Edoardo Marcucci, André de Palma To cite this version: Paolo Delle Site, Karim Kilani, Valerio Gatta, Edoardo Marcucci, André de Palma. Estimation of Logit and Probit models using best, worst and best-worst choices. 2018. hal-01953581 HAL Id: hal-01953581 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01953581 Preprint submitted on 13 Dec 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Estimation of Logit and Probit models using best, worst and best-worst choices Paolo Delle Sitea,∗, Karim Kilanib, Valerio Gattac, Edoardo Marcuccid, André de Palmae aUniversity Niccolò Cusano, Rome, Italy bCNAM LIRSA, Paris, France cUniversity Roma Tre, Rome, Italy dMolde University College, Molde, Norway eENS Paris Saclay, France Abstract The paper considers models for best, worst and best-worst choice probabilities, that use a single common set of random utilities. Choice probabilities are de- rived for two distributions of the random terms: i.i.d. extreme value, i.e. Logit, and multivariate normal, i.e. Probit. In Logit, best, worst and best-worst choice probabilities have a closed form. -
“Models of Consumer Demand for Differentiated Products”
16‐741 December 2016 “Models of Consumer Demand for Differentiated Products” Timothy J. Richards and Celine Bonnet Models of Consumer Demand for Di¤erentiated Products Timothy J. Richards and Celine Bonnet September 12, 2016 Abstract Advances in available data, econometric methods, and computing power have cre- ated a revolution in demand modeling over the past two decades. Highly granular data on household choices means that we can model very speci…c decisions regarding pur- chase choices for di¤erentiated products at the retail level. In this chapter, we review the recent methods in modeling consumer demand, and their application to problems in industrial organization and strategic marketing. Keywords: consumer demand, discrete choice, discrete-continuous choice, shopping basket models, machine learning. JEL Codes: D43, L13, L81, M31. Richards is Professor and Morrison Chair of Agribusiness, Morrison School of Agribusiness, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University; Bonnet is Senior Researcher, Toulouse School of Economics and INRA, Toulouse, France. Contact author, Richards: Ph. 480-727-1488, email: [email protected]. Copyright 2016. Users may copy with permission. 1 Introduction Advances in available data, econometric methods, and computing power have created a rev- olution in demand modeling over the past two decades. Highly granular data on household choices means that we can model very speci…c decisions regarding purchase choices for dif- ferentiated products at the retail level. In this chapter, we review the recent methods in modeling consumer demand that have proven useful for problems in industrial organization and strategic marketing. Analyzing problems in the agricultural and food industries requires demand models that are able to address heterogeneity in consumer choice in di¤erentiated-product markets.