Occam's Razor Is Insufficient to Infer the Preferences of Irrational Agents
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Evidence-Based Policy Cause Area Report
Evidence-Based Policy Cause Area Report AUTHOR: 11/18 MARINELLA CAPRIATI, DPHIL 1 — Founders Pledge Animal Welfare Executive Summary By supporting increased use of evidence in the governments of low- and middle-income countries, donors can dramatically increase their impact on the lives of people living in poverty. This report explores how focusing on evidence-based policy provides an opportunity for leverage, and presents the most promising organisation we identified in this area. A high-risk/high-return opportunity for leverage In the 2013 report ‘The State of the Poor’, the World Bank reported that, as of 2010, roughly 83% of people in extreme poverty lived in countries classified as ‘lower-middle income’ or below. By far the most resources spent on tackling poverty come from local governments. American think tank the Brookings Institution found that, in 2011, $2.3 trillion of the $2.8 trillion spent on financing development came from domestic government revenues in the countries affected. There are often large differences in the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of social programs— the amount of good done per dollar spent can vary significantly across programs. Employing evidence allows us to identify the most cost-effective social programs. This is useful information for donors choosing which charity to support, but also for governments choosing which programs to implement, and how. This suggests that employing philanthropic funding to improve the effectiveness of policymaking in low- and middle-income countries is likely to constitute an exceptional opportunity for leverage: by supporting the production and use of evidence in low- and middle-income countries, donors can potentially enable policy makers to implement more effective policies, thereby reaching many more people than direct interventions. -
Technological Singularity
TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY BY VERNOR VINGE The original version of this article was presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993. It appeared in the winter 1993 Whole Earth Review --Vernor Vinge Except for these annotations (and the correction of a few typographical errors), I have tried not to make any changes in this reprinting of the 1993 WER essay. --Vernor Vinge, January 2003 1. What Is The Singularity? The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater-than-human intelligence. Science may achieve this breakthrough by several means (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur): * Computers that are awake and superhumanly intelligent may be developed. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is yes, then there is little doubt that more intelligent beings can be constructed shortly thereafter.) * Large computer networks (and their associated users) may wake up as superhumanly intelligent entities. * Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent. * Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect. The first three possibilities depend on improvements in computer hardware. Actually, the fourth possibility also depends on improvements in computer hardware, although in an indirect way. -
Prepare for the Singularity
Prepare for the Singularity The definition of man's uniqueness has always formed the kernel of his cosmological and ethical systems. With Copernicus and Galileo, he ceased to be the species located at the center of the universe, attended by sun and stars. With Darwin, he ceased to be the species created and specially endowed by God with soul and reason. With Freud, he ceased to be the species whose behavior was—potentially—governable by rational mind. As we begin to produce mechanisms that think and learn, he has ceased to be the species uniquely capable of complex, intelligent manipulation of his environment. I am confident that man will, as he has in the past, find a new way of describing his place in the universe—a way that will satisfy his needs for dignity and for purpose. But it will be a way as different from the present one as was the Copernican from the Ptolemaic. —Herbert Simon Whether you think Herb is the successor to Copernicus, Galileo, Darwin, and Freud, and whatever you think about the Singularity, you must admit that technology is moving at a fast, accelerating pace, perhaps challenging humans’ pre-eminence as the vessels of intelligence. As Computer Science drives artificial intelligence forward, we should understand its impact. Figure 1.Kurzweil’s Projection Hans Moravec first suggested that intelligent robots would inherit humanity’s intelligence and carry it forward. Many people now talk about it seriously, e.g. the Singularity Summits. Academics like theoretical physicist David Deutsch and philosopher David Chalmers, have written about it. -
Transhumanism Between Human Enhancement and Technological Innovation*
Transhumanism Between Human Enhancement and Technological Innovation* Ion Iuga Abstract: Transhumanism introduces from its very beginning a paradigm shift about concepts like human nature, progress and human future. An overview of its ideology reveals a strong belief in the idea of human enhancement through technologically means. The theory of technological singularity, which is more or less a radicalisation of the transhumanist discourse, foresees a radical evolutionary change through artificial intelligence. The boundaries between intelligent machines and human beings will be blurred. The consequence is the upcoming of a post-biological and posthuman future when intelligent technology becomes autonomous and constantly self-improving. Considering these predictions, I will investigate here the way in which the idea of human enhancement modifies our understanding of technological innovation. I will argue that such change goes in at least two directions. On the one hand, innovation is seen as something that will inevitably lead towards intelligent machines and human enhancement. On the other hand, there is a direction such as “Singularity University,” where innovation is called to pragmatically solving human challenges. Yet there is a unifying spirit which holds together the two directions and I think it is the same transhumanist idea. Keywords: transhumanism, technological innovation, human enhancement, singularity Each of your smartphones is more powerful than the fastest supercomputer in the world of 20 years ago. (Kathryn Myronuk) If you understand the potential of these exponential technologies to transform everything from energy to education, you have different perspective on how we can solve the grand challenges of humanity. (Ray Kurzweil) We seek to connect a humanitarian community of forward-thinking people in a global movement toward an abundant future (Singularity University, Impact report 2014). -
Cognitive Biases Nn Discussing Cognitive Biases with Colleagues and Pupils
The RSA: an enlightenment organisation committed to finding innovative practical solutions to today’s social challenges. Through its ideas, research and 27,000-strong Fellowship it seeks to understand and enhance human capability so we can close the gap between today’s reality and people’s hopes for a better world. EVERYONE STARTS WITH AN ‘A’ Applying behavioural insight to narrow the socioeconomic attainment gap in education NATHALIE SPENCER, JONATHAN ROWSON, LOUISE BAMFIELD MARCH 2014 8 John Adam Street London WC2N 6EZ +44 (0) 20 7930 5115 Registered as a charity in England and Wales IN COOPERATION WITH THE no. 212424 VODAFONE FOUNDATION GERMANY Copyright © RSA 2014 www.thersa.org www.thersa.org For use in conjunction with Everyone Starts with an “A” 3 ways to use behavioural insight in the classroom By Spencer, Rowson, www.theRSA.org Bamfield (2014), available www.vodafone-stiftung.de A guide for teachers and school leaders at: www.thersa.org/startswitha www.lehrerdialog.net n Praising pupils for effort instead of intelligence to help instil the Whether you and your pupils believe that academic idea that effort is key and intelligence is not a fixed trait. For ability is an innate trait (a ‘fixed mindset’) or can be example, try “great, you kept practicing” instead of “great, you’re strengthened through effort and practice like a muscle really clever”. (a ‘growth mindset’) affects learning, resilience to n Becoming the lead learner. Educators can shape mindset setbacks, and performance. Mindset through modelling it for the pupils. The way that you (and parents) give feedback to Think about ability like a muscle Try: n Giving a “not yet” grade instead of a “fail” to set the expectation pupils can reinforce or attenuate a given mindset. -
“Is Cryonics an Ethical Means of Life Extension?” Rebekah Cron University of Exeter 2014
1 “Is Cryonics an Ethical Means of Life Extension?” Rebekah Cron University of Exeter 2014 2 “We all know we must die. But that, say the immortalists, is no longer true… Science has progressed so far that we are morally bound to seek solutions, just as we would be morally bound to prevent a real tsunami if we knew how” - Bryan Appleyard 1 “The moral argument for cryonics is that it's wrong to discontinue care of an unconscious person when they can still be rescued. This is why people who fall unconscious are taken to hospital by ambulance, why they will be maintained for weeks in intensive care if necessary, and why they will still be cared for even if they don't fully awaken after that. It is a moral imperative to care for unconscious people as long as there remains reasonable hope for recovery.” - ALCOR 2 “How many cryonicists does it take to screw in a light bulb? …None – they just sit in the dark and wait for the technology to improve” 3 - Sterling Blake 1 Appleyard 2008. Page 22-23 2 Alcor.org: ‘Frequently Asked Questions’ 2014 3 Blake 1996. Page 72 3 Introduction Biologists have known for some time that certain organisms can survive for sustained time periods in what is essentially a death"like state. The North American Wood Frog, for example, shuts down its entire body system in winter; its heart stops beating and its whole body is frozen, until summer returns; at which point it thaws and ‘comes back to life’ 4. -
The Definition of Effective Altruism
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 19/08/19, SPi 1 The Definition of Effective Altruism William MacAskill There are many problems in the world today. Over 750 million people live on less than $1.90 per day (at purchasing power parity).1 Around 6 million children die each year of easily preventable causes such as malaria, diarrhea, or pneumonia.2 Climate change is set to wreak environmental havoc and cost the economy tril- lions of dollars.3 A third of women worldwide have suffered from sexual or other physical violence in their lives.4 More than 3,000 nuclear warheads are in high-alert ready-to-launch status around the globe.5 Bacteria are becoming antibiotic- resistant.6 Partisanship is increasing, and democracy may be in decline.7 Given that the world has so many problems, and that these problems are so severe, surely we have a responsibility to do something about them. But what? There are countless problems that we could be addressing, and many different ways of addressing each of those problems. Moreover, our resources are scarce, so as individuals and even as a globe we can’t solve all these problems at once. So we must make decisions about how to allocate the resources we have. But on what basis should we make such decisions? The effective altruism movement has pioneered one approach. Those in this movement try to figure out, of all the different uses of our resources, which uses will do the most good, impartially considered. This movement is gathering con- siderable steam. There are now thousands of people around the world who have chosen -
Lesswrong.Com Sequences
LessWrong.com Sequences Elizier Yudkowsky Generated by lesswrong_book.py on 2013-04-28. Pseudo-random version string: 8c37c10f-8178-4d00-8a06-16a9ed81a6be. Part I Map and Territory A collection of posts dealing with the fundamentals of rationality: the difference between the map and the territory, Bayes’s Theorem and the nature of evidence, why anyone should care about truth, and minds as reflective cognitive engines. 1. The Simple Truth↗ “I remember this paper I wrote on existentialism. My teacher gave it back with an F. She’d underlined true and truth wherever it appeared in the essay, probably about twenty times, with a question mark beside each. She wanted to know what I meant by truth.” — Danielle Egan (journalist) Author’s Foreword: This essay is meant to restore a naive view of truth. Someone says to you: “My miracle snake oil can rid you of lung cancer in just three weeks.” You reply: “Didn’t a clinical study show this claim to be untrue?” The one returns: “This notion of ‘truth’ is quite naive; what do you mean by ‘true’?” Many people, so questioned, don’t know how to answer in exquisitely rigorous detail. Nonetheless they would not be wise to abandon the concept of ‘truth’. There was a time when no one knew the equations of gravity in exquisitely rigorous detail, yet if you walked off a cliff, you would fall. Often I have seen – especially on Internet mailing lists – that amidst other conversation, someone says “X is true”, and then an argument breaks out over the use of the word ‘true’. -
Less Wrong Sequences Pdf
Less wrong sequences pdf Continue % Print Ready Lesswrong Sequences Print Friendly Versions of Lesswrong Sequence, Enjoy! The basic sequences of Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions How to See through many disguises of answers or beliefs or statements that do not respond or say or mean nothing. The first (and probably most important) main sequence on Less Wrong. the epub pdf-version of the reductionism discount the second core sequence is less wrong. How to make the reality apart... and live in this universe where we have always lived without feeling frustrated that complex things are made of simpler things. Includes zombies and Joy in just real subsequences epub (en) pdf-version marking quantum physics is not a mysterious introduction to quantum mechanics, designed to be available to those who can grok algebra and complex numbers. Cleaning up the old confusion about SM is used to introduce basic issues into rationality (such as the technical version of Occam's Razor), epistemology, dredonism, naturalism, and philosophy of science. Do not dispense reading, although the exact reasons for the retreat are difficult to explain before reading. epub pdf-version of the markup Fun Theory is a specific theory of transhuman values. How much pleasure there is in the universe; We will someday run out of fun; We have fun yet; we could have more fun. Part of the complexity of the value thesis. It is also part of a fully general response to religious theododicy. epub pdf-version marking Minor sequences smaller collection of messages. Usually parts of the main sequences that depend on some, but not all points are entered. -
Roboethics: Fundamental Concepts and Future Prospects
information Review Roboethics: Fundamental Concepts and Future Prospects Spyros G. Tzafestas ID School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Zographou, GR 15773 Athens, Greece; [email protected] Received: 31 May 2018; Accepted: 13 June 2018; Published: 20 June 2018 Abstract: Many recent studies (e.g., IFR: International Federation of Robotics, 2016) predict that the number of robots (industrial, service/social, intelligent/autonomous) will increase enormously in the future. Robots are directly involved in human life. Industrial robots, household robots, medical robots, assistive robots, sociable/entertainment robots, and war robots all play important roles in human life and raise crucial ethical problems for our society. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the fundamental concepts of robot ethics (roboethics) and some future prospects of robots and roboethics, as an introduction to the present Special Issue of the journal Information on “Roboethics”. We start with the question of what roboethics is, as well as a discussion of the methodologies of roboethics, including a brief look at the branches and theories of ethics in general. Then, we outline the major branches of roboethics, namely: medical roboethics, assistive roboethics, sociorobot ethics, war roboethics, autonomous car ethics, and cyborg ethics. Finally, we present the prospects for the future of robotics and roboethics. Keywords: ethics; roboethics; technoethics; robot morality; sociotechnical system; ethical liability; assistive roboethics; medical roboethics; sociorobot ethics; war roboethics; cyborg ethics 1. Introduction All of us should think about the ethics of the work/actions we select to do or the work/actions we choose not to do. -
Superintelligence As a Cause Or Cure for Risks of Astronomical Suffering
Informatica 41 (2017) 389–400 389 Superintelligence as a Cause or Cure for Risks of Astronomical Suffering Kaj Sotala and Lukas Gloor Foundational Research Institute, Berlin, Germany E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] foundational-research.org Keywords: existential risk, suffering risk, superintelligence, AI alignment problem, suffering-focused ethics, population ethics Received: August 31, 2017 Discussions about the possible consequences of creating superintelligence have included the possibility of existential risk, often understood mainly as the risk of human extinction. We argue that suffering risks (s-risks), where an adverse outcome would bring about severe suffering on an astronomical scale, are risks of a comparable severity and probability as risks of extinction. Preventing them is the common interest of many different value systems. Furthermore, we argue that in the same way as superintelligent AI both contributes to existential risk but can also help prevent it, superintelligent AI can be both the cause of suffering risks and a way to prevent them from being realized. Some types of work aimed at making superintelligent AI safe will also help prevent suffering risks, and there may also be a class of safeguards for AI that helps specifically against s-risks. Povzetek: Prispevek analizira prednosti in nevarnosti superinteligence. 1 Introduction Work discussing the possible consequences of creating We term the possibility of such outcomes a suffering superintelligent AI (Yudkowsky 2008, Bostrom 2014, risk: Sotala & Yampolskiy 2015) has discussed Suffering risk (s-risk): One where an adverse superintelligence as a possible existential risk: a risk outcome would bring about severe suffering on "where an adverse outcome would either annihilate an astronomical scale, vastly exceeding all Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and suffering that has existed on Earth so far. -
Ethically Aligned Design, First Edition
ETHICALLY ALIGNED DESIGN First Edition A Vision for Prioritizing Human Well-being with Autonomous and Intelligent Systems The IEEE Global Initiative on Ethics of Autonomous and Intelligent Systems Table of Contents The views and opinions expressed in this collaborative work are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of their respective institutions or of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). This work is published under the auspices of the IEEE Global Initiative on Ethics of Autonomous and Intelligent Systems for the purposes of furthering public understanding of the importance of addressing ethical considerations in the design of autonomous and intelligent systems. Please see page 290, How the Document Was Prepared, for more details regarding the preparation of this document. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 United States License. The IEEE Global Initiative on Ethics of Autonomous and Intelligent Systems Table of Contents Introduction 2 Executive Summary 3-6 Acknowledgements 7-8 Ethically Aligned Design From Principles to Practice 9-16 General Principles 17-35 Classical Ethics in A/IS 36-67 Well-being 68-89 Affective Computing 90-109 Personal Data and Individual Agency 110-123 Methods to Guide Ethical Research and Design 124-139 A/IS for Sustainable Development 140-168 Embedding Values into Autonomous and Intelligent Systems 169-197 Polic y 198-210 L a w 211-281 About Ethically Aligned Design The Mission and Results of The IEEE Global Initiative 282 From Principles to Practice—Results of Our Work to Date 283-284 IEEE P7000™ Approved Standardization Projects 285-286 Who We Are 287 Our Process 288-289 How the Document was Prepared 290 How to Cite Ethically Aligned Design 290 Key References 291 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 United States License.