Greater Los Angeles Multifamily
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MARKET REPORT | 4Q/2020 Greater Los Angeles Multifamily Sales Activity Picks Up in Larger Transactions to Close 2020 Highlights Q4 Snapshot Los Angeles Market > After holding fairly steady in the fi rst half of the year, conditions in the Los Angeles multifamily market cooled in the second half. Market Fundamentals As the economy gains momentum, renter demand should pick up Vacancy ...................................................................... 4.5% and absorption of area apartments should accelerate. - Year Over Year Change .......................................+70 bps > Apartment vacancy in Los Angeles rose 70 basis points in 2020, reaching 4.5 percent. Most of the increase occurred in the fourth Asking Rent ..............................................................$1,973 quarter when the vacancy rate surged 40 basis points. - Year Over Year Change ...........................................-5.2% > Apartment rents in Los Angeles recorded their fi rst annual decline Transaction Activity since 2009. In 2020, local asking rents retreated 5.2 percent, fi nishing the year at $1,973 per month. Median Sales Price Per Unit (YTD) ........................$288,900 > Transaction activity in the fourth quarter closely tracked levels from Cap Rates (Avg YTD) .................................................. 4.1% the previous quarter. There was a sharp increase in the sales of larger properties at the end of the year. Prices rose and cap rates Construction Activity compressed in 2020. Units Under Construction .........................................19,536 Units Delivered YTD ...................................................8,347 Greater Los Angeles Multifamily Market Overview Supply and demand diverged in the Los Angeles multifamily market in While the apartment market recorded some softening, the local 2020, with steep pandemic-related job losses dragging down demand investment market was relatively sturdy throughout much of 2020. while apartment deliveries accelerated. Vacancies rose and rents Sales velocity lagged levels from the previous two years, but contracted in 2020, but conditions are forecast to stabilize in the coming investment fundamentals strengthened. The median price rose more quarters. In 2020, not all areas of the local multifamily market were than 10 percent for the year, and prices continued to push higher in impacted equally. For the most part, Class B and Class C properties and deals that closed in the fi nal few months of the year. Cap rates less expensive submarkets fared better during the past year, while the compressed in 2020, closely tracking declines in interest rates. most expensive regions recorded the sharpest rent declines. These Investors appear to have adjusted to the current market conditions. areas should recover as the economy gains momentum. NORTHMARQ.COM GREATER LOS ANGELES MULTIFAMILY MARKET REPORT | 4Q/2020 Employment Employment Overview > The labor market in Los Angeles recovered at a slower pace during the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. Employers added nearly 200 4% Y e ) 2% a 22,000 net jobs in the fourth quarter, after 66,000 jobs were brought s 100 r 0 - 0 o 0 v ( e back to the market in the third quarter. In 2020, employment contracted 0% r d 0 - e Y d e by 9.1 percent, with the loss of approximately 417,500 net jobs. d -2% a A r s -100 E b m o p J -4% l o r y > Transportation and logistics, the largest employment sector in a -200 m e Y -6% e - n r t Los Angeles, has been recovering at a consistent pace for the past e C v -300 o h - -8% a r n several months and ended the year with momentum that is likely to a g e e carry over into 2021. Employers in the trade, transportation, and Y -400 -10% utilities sector added back nearly 50,000 net jobs in the fourth quarter. -500 -12% 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 > The area’s large leisure and hospitality sector has recorded steep Number of Jobs Annual Change losses through the coronavirus shutdown. Employment in the Sources: NorthMarq, Bureau of Labor Statistics sector contracted by approximately 32 percent in 2020, losing nearly 175,000 jobs. As the economy reopens, the sector should add back a signifi cant number of jobs in 2021. Employers added nearly 22,000 > Forecast: The severe job losses from 2020 will likely take a few net jobs in the fourth quarter years to fully recover. Still, the Los Angeles employment market is expected to outperform in 2021 once the economy undergoes a more extensive reopening. Total employment is forecast to expand 3.6 percent in 2021, with the addition of about 150,000 net jobs. Vacancy Vacancy Trends > Vacancy in Los Angeles County gradually rose throughout 2020, with a steeper increase recorded during the fourth quarter. The local vacancy rate rose 40 basis points in the fourth quarter, 5.0% reaching 4.5 percent. 4.5% > For the full year, vacancy rose 70 basis points. This followed a 4.0% fi ve-year stretch of minimal annual vacancy increases. Prior to 3.5% e 3.0% t 2020, vacancy had ticked up an average of 15 basis points per a R y c 2.5% year since 2015. n a c a V 2.0% The vacancy rate rose in Los Angeles County despite positive > 1.5% absorption during the year. Net absorption totaled approximately 1.0% 2,700 units in 2020, down from nearly 5,000 units in the previous 0.5% year. Absorption was strongest in the fi rst half of the year before 0.0% tailing off in the second half. 4Q 15 2Q 16 4Q 16 2Q 17 4Q 17 2Q 18 4Q 18 2Q 19 4Q 19 2Q 20 4Q 20 > Forecast: Renter demand for apartments is forecast to accelerate Sources: NorthMarq, Reis in the coming quarters, but the market is expected to continue to record signifi cant increases to new supply. New supply should Net absorption totaled outpace demand, pushing the vacancy rate up an estimated 30 basis points to 4.8 percent. approximately 2,700 units in 2020, down from nearly 5,000 units in the previous year NORTHMARQ INVESTMENT SALES | PAGE 2 NORTHMARQ.COM/MULTIFAMILY GREATER LOS ANGELES MULTIFAMILY MARKET REPORT | 4Q/2020 Rents Rent Trends > Average asking rents dipped 2 percent in the fourth quarter, falling below $2,000 per month for the fi rst time since the middle of Per Month Annual Change 2018. Local asking rents ended the year at $1,973 per month. $2,200 8.0% $2,100 6.0% > Asking rents declined 5.2 percent in 2020, with nearly all of the Y $2,000 e a 4.0% r h - t o drop recorded during the second half of the year. As the local n v o $1,900 e r M - r 2.0% Y e labor market gains momentum, demand for apartments should e a p r t $1,800 n R e e R pick up, stabilizing rents. 0.0% n t g C n i $1,700 h k a s n A g -2.0% e > Rents in Class A properties fell more sharply than rents in less $1,600 expensive units in 2020. Class A asking rents declined 7 percent $1,500 -4.0% in 2020, ending the year at $2,548 per month. Combined rents in $1,400 -6.0% 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q Class B and Class C units dropped approximately 4.5 percent. 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 Sources: NorthMarq, Reis > Forecast: Rents will likely trend lower for a few more quarters before stabilizing in the second half of the year. Average asking rents in Los Angeles are forecast to dip approximately 1.5 percent Local asking rents ended the in 2021. year at $1,973 per month Development and Permitting Development Trends > Apartment construction was very active during 2020, and total deliveries approached the cyclical high recorded in 2018. Developers brought approximately 8,350 units to market in 10,000 2020, compared to fewer than 5,600 units in 2019. 9,000 8,000 ) 7,000 s t i Multifamily permitting accelerated in the fourth quarter, as n > u 6,000 ( s n o 5,000 developers pulled permits for about 3,800 units, the highest i t e l p 4,000 quarterly total of the year. Even with the strong fi nish, the m o 12,150 multifamily permits pulled during 2020 was the lowest C 3,000 2,000 fi gure since 2012. From 2014 to 2019, multifamily permitting 1,000 averaged more than 15,000 units per year. - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: NorthMarq, Reis > Projects totaling more than 19,500 apartment units are currently under construction in Greater Los Angeles. The Downtown area accounts for nearly half of the total number of units that are under way. Projects totaling more than > Forecast: The year ahead should be another active period for new apartment construction. Developers are forecast to deliver 19,500 apartment units are approximately 8,500 new units in 2021, a slight acceleration currently under construction from 2020 levels. NORTHMARQ INVESTMENT SALES | PAGE 3 NORTHMARQ.COM/MULTIFAMILY GREATER LOS ANGELES MULTIFAMILY MARKET REPORT | 4Q/2020 Multifamily Sales Investment Trends > Transaction activity in the fourth quarter closely tracked levels from the third quarter, although dollar volume picked up as there was a spike in sales greater than $75 million. Total sales velocity $300 6% ) for the year was down approximately 45 percent from 2019 levels. s $250 5% 0 0 A 0 ( v t e i $200 4% r n > Despite a decline in the number of properties that sold, prices a U g r e e C pushed higher in 2020.