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Social-Ecological Dimensions of Terrestrial Moisture Recycling

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Social-Ecological Dimensions of Terrestrial Moisture Recycling Social-Ecological Dimensions of Terrestrial Moisture Recycling 1 1,2 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden Patrick W. Keys 2 Dept. of Atmospheric Science, College of Engineering, Colorado State University, United States CMMAP Summer Mee;ng, 2015 3 1,3 3,4 2 1 Dept. of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, TU DelR, The Netherlands. With contribu;ons from: Lan Wang-Erlandsson , Ruud van der Ent , Elizabeth A. Barnes , and Line Gordon 4 WiSeveen+Bos , The Hauge, The Netherlands, 1. Variability in space and ;me What are social-ecological systems? 3. Land-use change and moisture recycling Social Ecological Systems (SES) are complex interacting systems that contain internal variables PURPOSE PURPOSE 18with P. W. multiple Keys et al.: Variability subsystems of precipitationsheds and multiple scales of organization. “The different parts of an SES Determine whether and how precipitationsheds varied a lot (or a little) in space and time are relatively separable but interact to produce outcomes at the SES level, which in turn feed Identify the extent to which different scenarios of land-use change can impact rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil METHOD back to affect these subsystems and their components, as well other larger or smaller SESs.“ Backtrack the sources of precipitation for three locations globally, and use frequency of contribution and Ostrom, E. (2009) A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems. Science. 325, 419 DOI: 10.1126/science.1172133 METHOD 14EOF analysis to quantify variability. P. W. Keys et al.: Variability of precipitationsheds Perform six land-use scenarios in Sao Paulo’s precipitationshed, using realistic change (deforestation RESULT 1st EOF (ERA−I) 1st EOF (ERA−I) 1st EOF (MERRA) What is terrestrial moisture recycling? 20 replaced by mosaic grass and cropland), and two extreme A core region of evaporation contribution that occurs every year was 20 20 56% 71%56% 15 scenarios (potential natural vegetation, and bare soil). found to be relatively stable for most precipitationsheds. The 15 15 10 Terrestrial moisture recycling precipitationsheds for three regions were found to have low variation 10 10 5 refers to the atmospheric branch in space and time, with the primary mode of variation as an expansion 5 5 0 and contractionComposite of evaporation of core precipitationsheds sources (1st EOF), for versus an oscillation 0 0 of the water cycle that occurs on La Plata, Westernnd Sahel and Northern China −5 RESULT! back and forth (2 EOF)." −5 −5 land. Essentially, water that We find that the realistic Grass/Crop ! −10 −10 −10 evaporates from land surfaces, scenarios produce decreased Composite of core precipitationsheds for −15 P. W. Keys et al.: Variability of precipitationsheds 11 La Plata, Western Sahel and Northern China −15 −15 travels through the atmosphere, evaporation in Sao Paulo’s −20 Evap. contribution (in mm/growing season) −20 Evap. contribution (in mm/growing season) −20 Evap. contribution (in mm/growing season) and falls[a] back as precipitation precipitationshed, and that there is a 2nd EOF (ERA−I) 2nd2nd EOF EOF (MERRA) (MERRA) 10 ERA−I precipitationsheds for pronounced deficit during the dry 10 10 somewhere on land is considered 11% 8 La Plata, Western Sahel, and Northern China season, likely indicating the Current! 17% 8 11% 8 6 terrestrial moisture recycling. 25% Grass/Crops! 6 6 importance of forests for providing 50% Grass/Crops! 4 4 4 sustaining dry season transpiration.! 75% Grass/Crops! 2 2 2 100% Grass/Crops! 0 It is useful to explore moisture 0 0 100% Bare soil! 2 100% Potential Veg.! 2 2 recycling using SES, since humans −4 −4 −4 can impact and are impacted by −6 −6 −6 −8 modifications to terrestrial (i.e. −8 −8 −10 − 10 −10 Evap. contribution (in mm/growing season) Evap. contribution (in mm/growing season) Evap. contribution (in mm/growing season) land) surfaces. Fig. 6. Comparison of first and second EOFs for the Western Sahel (ERA-Interim on left and MERRA on right ), for the period 1980-2011. 1 The magenta line indicates the 5mm growing season− precipitationshed boundary, the black box indicates the sink region, and the bold number in the upper left corner indicates the amount of variance explained by the associated pattern. We do not show values <2 mm growing ERA−I only MERRA only ERA−I & MERRA 1 season− , for the sake of clarity in the figure. 4. Megaci;es and moisture recycling What is a precipitaonshed? P. W. Keys et al.: Variability of precipitationsheds 11 Fig. 5. Comparison of core precipitationshed extents for ERA-Interim and MERRA results, for the period 1980-2011, using the >5mm 1 growing season− boundary and 100% occurrence. The dashed green lines are meant to visually separate the different precipitationsheds. [b][a] Note that where the core precipitationshed boundaries for the Western Sahel and La Plata basin overlap (particularly in the Southern Atlantic), Surface Water Dependent Megacities the values for the Western SahelERA are displayed.−I only Also, the MediterraneanMERRA sources only belong toERA the Western−I Sahel& MERRA precipitationshed. <5 20 ERA−I precipitationsheds40 60 for 80 >100 PURPOSE For a given region, e.g. the state EvaporationMERRA contribution precipitationsheds (mm/growing for season) La Plata,MERRA Western precipitationsheds Sahel, and Northern for China Determine whether precipitationsheds of 2. Using an ecosystem services approach of Colorado, it is possible to !!! La Plata, Western Sahel, and Northern China !!!! urban areas vary with well-known modes of ! !!! !! !! !!!!!! !! !!! !!! ! !! !! ! ! !!!! !!!! ! !!! ! ! identify the locations that ! ! ! climate variability (e.g. ENSO) ! !!!! ! !! !! ! !! ! ! !!! !!!! !! ! ! PURPOSE ! contributed moisture that ! ! Integrate terrestrial moisture recycling into an Legend !! METHOD ! eventually falls as precipitation in !!! Ecosystem Services framework, to be used in ! Megacities Identify the precipitationsheds for 26 ! !!!!! the state. Watersheds megacities globally (that are dependent on discussions of land-use policy ! surface water). Then, correlate the annual METHOD The precipitationshed is the precipitationshed evaporation anomalies with Compare moisture recycling between current spatial boundary that climate modes. vegetation and bare-soil, to identify the “added RESULT! value” of vegetation for evaporation flows, encompasses the land and ocean Depending on the location on the planet, different precipitationsheds are correlated with different surfaces that contribute globally. ! −!! = ! ! anomalies. Strong correlations are found between particularly dry or wet years and particularly strong !,!"#$% !,!"#$% ! [b] climate modes. ! moisture to a specific location. <5 20 40 60 80 >100 ! − ! ! = ! ! <5 20MERRA precipitationsheds40 60 for 80 >100 !,!"#$% !,!"#$% ! <5 Evaporation20MERRA contribution precipitationsheds40 (mm/growing60 for 80season) >100 Evaporation La Plata, Western contribution Sahel, (mm/growing and Northern season) China La Plata, Western Sahel, and Northern China RESULT The sources and sinks of terrestrial moisture recycling ecosystem services are identified 5. Moisture recycling governance Fig. 2. Comparison of mean precipitationshed extents for ERA-interim (top) and MERRA (bottom), for period 1980-2011. Lines are included 1 (located on the windward and leeward sides of to identify the sink region (black box), the 5 mm growing season− precipitationshed boundary (magenta line), and to separate the different precipitationsheds, since the three precipitationsheds do not occur simultaneously (dashed green line). Note that where the 5mm growing 1 PURPOSE continents, respectively), and a transparent Modeling Approach season− boundaries for the Western Sahel and La Plata basin overlap (particularly in the Southern Atlantic), the values for the Western Sahel metric for inclusion in ecosystem services are displayed, and the Mediterranean sources belong to the Western Sahel. Values less than 5mm are excluded from the precipitationsheds. Since society has the potential to influence and modify terrestrial moisture recycling, we identify the inventories is developed. A case study in Brazil institutional structures & best suited for governing moisture recycling phenomena. reveals the seasonal differences in ecosystem service provision, depending on vegetation, and STEAM WAM-2layers METHOD …these altered we further overlay our findings with existing ERA-Interim climate Review existing forms of water and resource governance, and develop criteria for evaluating suitability data forces STEAM, evaporaon fluxes are spatial archetypes of ecosystem services. which simulates fed into WAM-2layers Excludable* Non.excludable* [EXPECTED] RESULTS terrestrial moisture influencing the moisture Rival* Private good! For$this$to$become$a$$ Open access good! We use multiple approaches, including “private$good”$it$would$ par;;oning, and budget of the require$someone$to$be$ <5 20 40 60 80 >100 For$this$to$become$an$ economic classification of the service able$to$own$the$ “open$access$good”$it$ changes the atmosphere, leading to evapora9on$flows$ <5 Evaporation20 contribution40 (mm/growing60 80season) >100 would$require$someone$ (see figure), as well as comparative water precipitaon changes (rival),$and$control$who$ to$be$able$to$own$the$ evaporaon fluxes to Evaporation contribution (mm/growing season) receives$those$flows$ evapora9on$flows$ (excludable).$ governance analysis. the atmosphere.. downwind… (rival).$ The most suitable
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