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Aerial River Management for Future Water in the Context of Land Use Change in Amazonia

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Aerial River Management for Future Water in the Context of Land Use Change in Amazonia Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin – Geographisches Institut Aerial river management for future water in the context of land use change in Amazonia Dissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doctor rerum naturalium (Dr. rer. nat.) im Fach Geographie eingereicht an der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin von M.Sc., Wei Weng Präsidentin der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dr. Sabine Kunst Dekan der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät Prof. Dr. Elmar Kulke Eingereicht am: 02.09.2019 Tag der mündlichen Disputation: 10.12.2019 Gutachter/innen: 1. Prof. Dr. Tobia Lakes 2. Prof. Dr. Fernando Jaramillo 3. Dr. habil. Ilona Otto Dedicated to the lost Siaolin Village. (Typhoon Morakot, 8. 8. 2009). Abstract This thesis focuses on aerial rivers, the preferential pathways of moisture flows in the atmosphere. It aims to provide knowledge for their integration into current paradigms of water management. Recharged by evapotranspiration and discharged by precipitation, aerial rivers connect the atmosphere, the water system and the land system. This work focuses on Amazonia and adjacent areas, which collectively experience some of the most rapid land use change on the planet. This thesis further develops three key aspects (theoretical, technical, and societal) of knowledge concerning aerial rivers. From a theoretical aspect, it advances the knowledge of connection between aerial rivers and surface rivers. Using a moisture tracking algorithm, the impact from upwind land use change via aerial rivers on target regions’ runoff reception is quantified. Spatial heterogeneity in the influence of the precipitationshed on runoff reception of the target region is found, implying a need to determine the most influential precipitationshed (MIP) for management purposes. From a technical aspect, the work demonstrates an aerial river management example for a rapidly growing city. It is shown that strategic reforestation in the MIP can increase both rainfall and runoff reception and secure 22%-59% of a rapidly growing city’s future water needs. Finally, the work explores the societal aspect of aerial river management. Socio-technical regimes along aerial rivers contributing to extreme events of mega-drought were traced through the social scientific method of multi-level perspective. It reveals that the source regimes such as land policy and market interventions in Brazil and Bolivia govern remote Colombian energy regimes and their transitions through aerial rivers. These findings show that aerial rivers are relevant and viable options for the development of future water resources - including hydropower - but their management will require a holistic consideration of the various societal interfaces as they cross jurisdictional boundaries and sectors. 1 Zusammenfassung Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit Aerial Rivers („luftgetragenen Flüssen“), welche die bevorzugten Wege des Flusses von Feuchte in der Atmosphäre darstellen. Ziel ist es, die Voraussetzung für deren Integration in aktuelle Paradigmen der Wasserwirtschaft zu schaffen. Aerial Rivers, die durch Evapotranspiration mit Feuchtigkeit aufgeladen und durch Niederschlag entladen werden, verbinden die Atmosphäre mit den aquatischen sowie den terrestrischen Systemen. Im Mittelpunkt der Arbeit stehen Amazonien und die angrenzenden Gebiete, Regionen der Erde, in denen sich derzeit der Landnutzungswandel mit am schnellsten vollzieht. Bei der Erforschung von Aerial Rivers werden in dieser Arbeit im Wesentlichen drei Aspekte behandelt. Aus theoretischer Sicht wird das Wissen über die Verbindung zwischen Aerial Rivers und Oberflächenflüssen erweitert. Mit Hilfe eines Algorithmus zur Verfolgung des atmosphärischen Feuchtigkeitstransports werden die Auswirkungen von entferntem Landnutzungswandel in Windrichtung auf die Niederschlagsmenge einer Zielregion quantifiziert. Die räumliche Heterogenität des Einflusses der gesamten Quellevapotranspirationsfläche (precipitationsehed) auf die/den empfangene/n Niederschlagsmenge/Oberflächenabfluss der Zielregion wird untersucht und führt zur Identifizierung der „Most Influential Precipitationshed“ (MIP), der für Managementzwecke relevantesten Teilfläche. Der zweite, technische Aspekt verdeutlicht ein Aerial River-Managementbeispiel für eine schnell wachsende Stadt. Es wird gezeigt, dass die strategische Wiederaufforstung im MIP sowohl die Niederschlagsmenge als auch den empgangenen Oberflächenabfluss erhöht und 22%-59% des zukünftigen Wasserbedarfzuwachses einer schnell wachsenden Stadt sichern kann. Drittens untersucht die Arbeit den gesellschaftlichen Aspekt der Aerial Rivers. Sozio-technische Regime entlang der Aerial Rivers, die zu Extremereignissen wie Megadürren beitragen können, wurden durch die sozialwissenschaftliche Methode der Multi-Level-Perspektive (MLP) zurückverfolgt. Es zeigt sich, dass Ursachen wie Bodenpolitik und Marktinterventionen in Brasilien und Bolivien entfernte kolumbianische Energieregime und deren Wandel steuern. Diese Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Aerial Rivers relevant die Optionen für zukünftiges Gewässermangement einschließlich Wasserkraft berühren; ihr Management erfordert jedoch eine ganzheitliche Betrachtung der gesellschaftlichen Schnittstellen über administrative Grenzen und Sektoren hinweg. 2 Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................. 1 Zusammenfassung ............................................................................................................................. 2 Contents ............................................................................................................................................ 3 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................... 7 List of Tables .................................................................................................................................... 8 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 11 1.1 The intangible aerial rivers ..................................................................................................... 12 1.2 Aerial rivers in Amazonia ...................................................................................................... 14 1.3 Moisture tracking tools for investigating the aerial rivers........................................................ 16 1.4 Moisture recycling and aerial rivers ....................................................................................... 18 1.5 Identifying upwind-downwind pairs along the aerial rivers ..................................................... 22 1.5.1 Tracking the aerial rivers ................................................................................................. 22 1.5.2 Identifying upwind-downwind pairs using the Most Influential Precipitationshed (MIP) framework ............................................................................................................................... 24 1.6 Land use change impact on water availability via aerial rivers ................................................ 27 1.6.1 Inconclusive impact from upwind land use change on rainfall through aerial rivers .......... 27 1.6.2 Unknown impacts from land use change through the aerial rivers on surface rivers .......... 28 1.6.3 Reforestation competing water?....................................................................................... 30 1.6.4 Aerial river relevance for land and water management ..................................................... 32 1.7 Aerial river relevance for extreme events ............................................................................... 35 1.8 Social components influencing and influenced by the aerial rivers .......................................... 36 1.9 Dissertation road map and research questions ......................................................................... 39 Chapter 2 Aerial and surface rivers: downwind impacts on water availability from land use changes in Amazonia ........................................................................................................................................ 42 3 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... 43 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 43 2.2 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 47 2.2.1 Outlining aerial rivers...................................................................................................... 47 2.2.1.1 Tracing moisture flow in Amazonia .............................................................. 47 2.2.1.2 Input data ...................................................................................................... 47 2.2.1.3 Structuring the precipitationsheds: the MIPs .................................................. 49 2.2.2 Modified downwind precipitation by land use change .....................................................
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