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Appendix a Community Profile

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Appendix a Community Profile Housing Element Appendix A Community Profile To understand San Luis Obispo’s housing needs, a demographic profile of the community is essential. Statistical information provided in this appendix forms the basis for the goals, policies and programs in Chapter 3, and for establishing quantified housing objectives in Chapter 4, as required by State law. Social, economic and housing characteristics are analyzed to determine how these factors affect housing needs, costs and availability. Main sources of statistical data in this community profile include the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, California Department of Finance (DOF), and the 2012 Central Coast Economic Forecast prepared by Beacon Economics. 1. Population Trends and Characteristics San Luis Obispo is one of seven cities located within San Luis Obispo County, and is the largest in terms of population. As shown in Table A-1, the City's estimated population in 2013 was 45,541 (California Department of Finance, January 1, 2013). The population of the County is estimated to be 272,177. Thus, approximately 17 percent of County residents lived in the City of San Luis Obispo in 2013. Table A-1 Population Growth, 2005-2013 City of San Luis Obispo San Luis Obispo County California Rate of Rate of Rate of Population Change Population Change Population Change (%) (%) (%) 2005 44,662 - 261,558 - 35,278,768 - 2006 44,522 -0.31 263,727 0.83 36,457,549 3.34 2007 44,389 -0.30 265,786 0.78 36,553,215 0.26 2008 44,521 0.30 268,290 0.94 36,756,666 0.56 2009 44,750 0.51 270,429 0.80 36,961,664 0.56 2010 45,119 0.82 269,637 -0.29 37,253,956 0.79 2011 45,269 0.33 271,969 0.86 37,691,912 1.18 2012 45,312 0.10 271,502 -0.17 37,668,804 -0.06 2013 45,541 0.51 272,177 0.25 37,966,471 0.79 Source: U.S. Census 2010, DOF 2013 The City’s long-term population growth rate has reflected slow, steady growth of one percent or less per year. From 2005-2013, the City’s population, decreased slightly for the next two years starting from 2005, and increase slightly for the next six years. During this period, annual population change never exceeded one percent, and only three times did it change more than half a percent. Comparatively over the same period, the population of the County grew at rates of - 0.29 to 0.94 percent, and the State’s population grew annually at rates ranging from -0.06 to 3.34 percent. Page A-1 Chapter 3 City of San Luis Obispo Housing Element, January 2015 Table A-2 shows the average annual growth rate in population for the City, County, and State between 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2013. The relatively recent slow growth is apparent between 2010 and 2013, when the City population increased only 0.2 percent. The average annual growth rate for the County was the same at 0.2 percent per year and the State’s growth rate was 2.5 times higher for the same period. Between 2010 and 2013, City, County and State saw their average annual growth rates drop slightly compared to 2000 to 2010. Table A-2 Average Annual Population Growth, 1990-2013 San Luis Obispo City, County, and State of California City County State Average Average Average Annual Annual Annual Population Population Population Growth Growth Growth Rate (%) Rate (%) Rate (%) 1990 41,958 - 217,162 - 29,760,021 - 2000 44,179 0.5 246,681 1.4 33,871,648 1.4 2010 45,119 0.2 269,637 0.9 37,253,956 1.0 2013 45,541 0.2 272,177 0.2 37,966,471 0.5 Source: U.S. Census, 1990, 2000, 2010; California Department of Finance, 2013 The California Department of Finance predicts that between 2005 and 2030, the State’s population will grow by almost 11.5 million to slightly greater than 48 million residents. This is a projected annual growth rate of 1.09 percent. As part of its regional planning functions, the San Luis Obispo Council of Governments (SLOCOG) develops and publishes regional population, employment, and housing forecasts for the County and its communities. Table A-3 shows SLOCOG growth projections for the City and County prepared by Economics Research Associates, and Department of Finance projections for the State. Table A-3 San Luis Obispo Population Projections, 2015-2030 Year City County State 2015 44,668 275,590 38,801,063 2020 45,969 286,940 40,643,643 2025 46,704 296,851 42,451,760 2030 47,622 309,288 44,279,354 Annual Growth Rate 0.40% 0.72% 1.0% Source: Regional Growth Forecast for San Luis Obispo Council of Governments, 2011; California Department of Finance, 2010 SLOCOG projections for the County show an annual growth rate of 0.72 percent. This annual growth rate is their middle-range projection. SLOCOG low and high-range projections forecast County annual growth rates of 0.64 percent and 0.79 percent respectively. For the City, SLOCOG projects a continuation of the relatively slow growth rates experienced between 2000 and 2010, with a 0.40 percent annual growth rate to 2030. Page A-2 Housing Element The General Plan Land Use Element (LUE) includes policies to accommodate an eventual City population of 57,200. At a 0.5 percent growth rate, the City's anticipated residential capacity would be reached by the year 2057. a) Age Composition San Luis Obispo’s age profile is shown in Table A-4 and graphically in the form of a population pyramid in Figure A-1. When compared with the County and State, San Luis Obispo has significantly lower percentages of children, teens and adults in the primary childbearing years of 25-44. The City however has a relatively high proportion of senior citizens. While smaller than the County, there are 0.6 percent more seniors age 65 years or older in the City than in the State. Due to the concentration of students attending Cuesta College and California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, young adults age 18-24 are by far the largest age group in the City. The City’s component of residents age 18-24 is orders of magnitude greater than the County and State. With 35 percent of residents being age 18-24, the City has nearly a 2.5 times greater share of these young adults than the County, and nearly 3.4 times greater share than the State. As discussed in Appendix B, this demographic trend has important implications for the San Luis Obispo area housing market in terms of housing type, tenure and demand. Table A-4 Age Distribution, 2010 San Luis Obispo San Luis Obispo California Age County Population Percent Population Percent Population Percent Under 5 1,508 3% 13,343 5% 2,531,333 7% 5-17 4,014 9% 37498 14% 6,763,707 18% 18-24 15,670 35% 39,545 15% 3,922,951 11% 25-44 9,630 21% 61,860 23% 10,500,587 28% 45-64 8,866 20% 76,369 28% 9,288,864 25% 65 + 5,431 12% 41,022 15% 4,246,514 11% Source: U.S. Census, 2010 Page A-3 Chapter 3 City of San Luis Obispo Housing Element, January 2015 Figure A-1 San Luis Obispo Population Pyramid, 2010 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 Age Group 30-34 Male 20-24 Female 10-14 Under 5 7500 6000 4500 3000 1500 0 1500 3000 4500 6000 7500 Population Source: U.S. Census, 2010 b) Race and Ethnicity As shown in Table A-5, San Luis Obispo City and County are less diverse racially and ethnically than the State as a whole. In 2010, more than three quarters of the residents in the City and County were of white and non-Hispanic origin (note: By census definitions, Hispanic or non- Hispanic origin is an ethnic characteristic independent of race). However, the racial and ethnic compositions of both the City and the County are changing. Between 2000 and 2010, the White and non-Hispanic population components in the City dropped 3 percent and 4 percent in the County during this period. By 2010, the Hispanic population of any race was the second largest in the City and County. Asian and Pacific/Islanders were the third largest population, followed by residents of two or more races. Page A-4 Housing Element Table A-5 Racial and Ethnic Composition as a Percentage of Total Population, 1990-2010 City County State Ethnicity 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 White 88.6 78.7 75.8 89.3 76.1 71.1 65.6 46.7 40.1 Black/African- 1.9 1.3 1.0 2.2 1.9 1.9 8.1 6.4 5.8 American American 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 Indian/Alaska Native Asian or Pacific 5.2 5.3 5.2 2.9 2.7 3.1 10.4 11.1 13.1 Islander Other 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Two or More -- 2.4 2.0 -- 2.2 2.3 -- 2.7 2.6 Hispanic or Latino of 3.7 11.7 14.7 4.6 16.3 20.8 15.0 32.4 37.6 Any Race Source: U.S.
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