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Modeling Dutch Disease in the Economy of Iran: a Computable General Equilibrium Approach

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Modeling Dutch Disease in the Economy of Iran: a Computable General Equilibrium Approach View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Munich Personal RePEc Archive Munich Personal RePEc Archive Modeling Dutch Disease in the Economy of Iran: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach Manzoor, Davood and Haqiqi, Iman and Aghababaei, Mohammad Imam Sadiq University, University of Economic Sciences, University of Economic Sciences 2012 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95821/ MPRA Paper No. 95821, posted 02 Sep 2019 05:46 UTC ﻓ ﺼﻞﻧﺎﻣ ﻪي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻧﺮژي/ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺸﺘﻢ / ﺷﻤﺎر هي 31/ زﻣﺴﺘﺎن 1390/ ﺻﻔﺤﺎت -84 59 ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﺑﯿﻤﺎري ﻫﻠﻨﺪي در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان: روﯾﮑﺮد ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪﭘﺬﯾﺮ * داود ﻣﻨﻈﻮر 1 اﺳﺘﺎدﯾﺎر داﻧﺸﮑﺪه ي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد داﻧﺸﮕﺎه اﻣﺎم ﺻﺎدق (ع) [email protected] اﯾﻤﺎن ﺣﻘﯿﻘﯽ داﻧﺸﺠﻮي دﮐﺘﺮي ﻋﻠﻮم اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﻣﺪرس داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﻋﻠﻮم اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي [email protected] ﻣﺤﻤﺪ اﺑﺮاﻫﯿﻢ آﻗﺎﺑﺎﺑﺎﺋﯽ داﻧﺸﺠﻮي دﮐﺘﺮي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺗﻬﺮان [email protected] ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ درﯾﺎﻓﺖ: 23/11/89 ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﭘﺬﯾﺮش: 90/10/17 ﭼﮑﯿﺪه ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﺛﺮات اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺣﺎﺻـﻞ از اﻓـﺰاﯾﺶ درآﻣـﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘـﯽ اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﯾﮏ ﻣﺪل ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ، آﺛﺎر اﯾﻦ ﺷﻮك ﺑﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ، ﺳﻄﺢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ، ﺻﺎدرات و واردات ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان و ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺮ ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ رﻓـﺎه و ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ي ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ و دوﻟﺖ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽ ﮔﯿـﺮد . ﺑـﺎ ﺗﻮﺟـﻪ ﺑـﻪ ﻧﻘـﺶ ﺑﺨـﺶ ﻫـﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ در ﭘﺪﯾﺪ هي ﺑﯿﻤﺎري ﻫﻠﻨﺪي، اﺑﺘﺪا ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﮐﺎﻻﻫـﺎ و ﺧـﺪﻣﺎت ﻏﯿـﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ (ﻫـﻢ ﭼـﻮن ﺑﺨـﺶ اﺟـﺎر هي ﻣﺴـﮑﻦ، ﺑﺨـﺶ ﺧـﺪﻣﺎت دوﻟﺘـﯽ و ﺑﺨـﺶ ﺳـﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن )، ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه اﻧﺪ. از آنﺟﺎ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﯽ از ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن، ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اي اﺳﺖ، از اﯾﻦ رو در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﯽ داراﯾﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اي ﺳـﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن در ﻣـﺪل ﺗﻌـﺎدل ﻋﻤـﻮﻣﯽ ﻣﺤﺎﺳـﺒﻪ ﭘـﺬﯾﺮ، ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﮑﯿﮏ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اي و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﺼﺮﻓﯽ ﻣﻮرد ارزﯾـﺎﺑﯽ و ﺗﻮﺟـﻪ ﻗـﺮار ﻣﯽ ﮔﯿﺮد. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ، اﺛﺮات ﯾﮏ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻓﺮﺿﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 30 درﺻﺪ، در درآﻣﺪ ﻧﻔﺘـﯽ ﺳـﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺷﻮك ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟـﻪ ﺧﻮاﻫـﺪ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺧﺪﻣﺎت و ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺎ 24٪ و 22٪، ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در واردات ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﺟﺰ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﻔﺖ و ﮔﺎز، ﻫﻤ ﻪي ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪي ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺻﺎدرات را ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨـﺪ . ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺧﺪﻣﺎت دوﻟﺘﯽ، آب و ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﺑـﺎﻻﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﻓـﺰاﯾﺶ ﻗ ﯿﻤـﺖ را ﺧﻮاﻫﻨـﺪ داﺷـﺖ . ﻧﺘـﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﮐﺸﺶ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﯿﻨﯽ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻧﻤﯽ دﻫﺪ، در ﺣﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ ﻧﺘـﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﮐﺸﺶ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﯿﻨﯽ واردات و ﻣﺤﺼﻮل داﺧﻞ زﯾﺎد اﺳﺖ . ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪي Q33, Q34, Q43, F16, C68 :JEL. ﮐﻠﯿﺪواژه: ﺷﻮك درآﻣﺪ ﻧﻔﺘﯽ، ﮐﺎﻻي ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ، ﺑﯿﻤﺎري ﻫﻠﻨﺪي، ﺗﻘﺎﺿـﺎي ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن، ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪﭘﺬﯾﺮ -* ﻧﻮﯾﺴﻨﺪه ﻣﺴﺌﻮل 60 ﻧﻓﺼﻞ ﺎﻣﻪي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻧﺮژي/ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺸﺘﻢ / ﺷﻤﺎرهي 31 / زﻣﺴﺘﺎن 1390 1 - ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻗﺴﻤﺘﯽ از ﺑﻮدﺟ ﻪي دوﻟﺖ از ﻣﺤﻞ درآﻣﺪ ﺻـﺎدرات ﻣﻨـﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌـﯽ ﺗﺎﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ درآﻣﺪ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺳﺒﺐ ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ آﻣﺪن ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻻزم ﺑـﺮ اي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻫﺎي اﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﯽ دوﻟﺖ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد، در ﺻﻮرﺗﯽ ﮐﻪ دوﻟﺖﻫﺎ ﭘﺲ از اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ درآﻣـﺪﻫﺎ ﺑـﻪ ﯾﮏ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ اﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﯽ روي آورﻧﺪ، ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﮐﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫـﺪ ﯾﺎﻓـﺖ . در ادﺑﯿـﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﻼن، اﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﮐﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖﻫﺎ و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ. اﻟﺒﺘﻪ آﺛﺎر اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ درآﻣﺪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻟﺰوﻣﺎ از ﮐﺎﻧـﺎل ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ در ﺑﻮدﺟ ﻪي دوﻟﺖ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧﻤﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ. ﺣﺘﯽ اﮔﺮ در ﯾﮏ ﮐﺸﻮر، ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ در اﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در درآﻣﺪ ﺻﺎدرات ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﻣـﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧـﺪ ﻣﻨﺠـﺮ ﺑـﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﮐﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺷﻮد و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻫﺎ و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در ﺳـﻄﺢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ را ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ اﺛﺮ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﮐﺮدن درآﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳـﻄﺢ ﻋﻤـﻮﻣﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻫﺎ و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﺳﺖ، وﻟﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ﻗﯿﻤـﺖ و ﺳـﻄﺢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿـﺖ در ﻣﻮرد ﻫﻤﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎ و ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﯾﮑﺴﺎن ﻧﯿﺴﺖ. ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮرﺳـﯽ دﻗﯿـﻖ ﺗـﺮ اﯾـﻦ ﻣﺴـﺄﻟﻪ ﻻزم اﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻄﺢ ﮐ ﻢﺗﺮي از ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﺑﻪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻧﮕﺎه ﮐﺮد. ﺑﺮﺧﯽ از ﮐﺎﻻﻫﺎ و ﺧﺪﻣﺎت ﺑﺎ اﻓـﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮي در ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺷﺪه و ﺑﺮﺧﯽ دﯾﮕﺮ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﮐ ﻢﺗﺮي در ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ، در ﺻﻮرﺗﯽ ﮐﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﯾﮏ ﮐﺎﻻ ﯾﺎ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ، از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻋﺮﺿ ﻪي داﺧﻠﯽ و ﯾـﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ واردات ﭘﺎﺳﺦ داده ﻧﺸﻮد، ﺷﺎﻫﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي در ﻗﯿﻤﺖ آن ﮐﺎﻻ ﺧﻮاﻫﯿﻢ ﺑـﻮد . از اﯾﻦ رو اﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻣﯽ رود ﻫﺮ ﭼﻪ ﻋﺮﺿ ﻪي داﺧﻠﯽ ﯾـﮏ ﮐـﺎﻻ در داﺧـﻞ ﮐـﻢ ﮐﺸـﺶ ﺗـﺮ و ﯾـﺎ واردات آن ﺑﺎ ﻣﺎﻧﻊ ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮي ﻫﻤﺮاه ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺷﺪﯾﺪﺗﺮي ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺑﺎﺷـﺪ (اوﯾـﺎ و ﻣﻨﮕﺎل1، 2002). ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻓـﺰاﯾﺶ در ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﯿﻤـﺖ در ﻣـﻮرد ﮐﺎﻻﻫـﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮ از اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﮐﺎﻻﻫﺎي ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ ﻣـﯽ ﺑﺎﺷـﺪ، ﻟـﺬا ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿـﺖ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ2 اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿـﺖ ﺑﺨـﺶ ﻫـﺎي ﻗﺎﺑـﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟـﻪ 3 ﺗـﺮ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد. اﯾﻦ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮ ﻧﺮخ ارز و راﺑﻄ ﻪي ﻣﺒﺎدﻟ ﻪي ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﻧﯿـﺰ ﺗـﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣـﯽ ﮔـﺬارد، ﺑـﻪ ﺑﯿﻤﺎري ﻫﻠﻨﺪي4 ﻣﻌﺮوف اﺳﺖ . 1- Oya and Mangal. 2- Non-Tradable. 3- Tradable. 4- Dutch Disease. ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﺑﯿﻤﺎري ﻫﻠﻨﺪي در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان: روﯾﮑﺮد ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ... 61 ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي و ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒ ﻪي ﻣﯿـﺰان ﺗﻔـﺎوت در ﺗﻐﯿﯿـﺮ ﻗﯿﻤـﺖ و ﺳـﻄﺢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ، ﺑﺮ اﺛﺮ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در درآﻣﺪ ﻣﻨـﺎﺑﻊ اﺳـﺖ . ﺑـﺮاي ﻣﺤﺎﺳـﺒ ﻪي اﯾـﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات از ﯾﮏ اﻟﮕﻮي ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪﭘﺬﯾﺮ1 ﯾﺎ CGE اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑـﻪ ﺟﻮاﻧﺐ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﯿﻤﺎري ﻫﻠﻨﺪي ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦﮐـﻪ ﮐﺎﻻﻫـﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑـﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ در ﭘﺪﯾﺪ هي ﺑﯿﻤﺎري ﻫﻠﻨﺪي اﻫﻤﯿﺖ وﯾﮋه اي دارﻧﺪ، اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﯾﮏ ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ داده ﻫﺎي ﺧﺮد2 ﯾﺎ MCM ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮه ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ در ﺑﺮدارﻧـﺪ هي ﮐﺎﻻﻫـﺎي ﻗﺎﺑـﻞ ﻣﺒﺎ دﻟـﻪ و ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﺳـﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن، اﺟـﺎر هي ﻣﺴـﮑﻦ و ﺧـﺪﻣ ﺎت دوﻟﺘﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟ ﻪي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﻮرد ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪاﻧﺪ. اﻣﺎ ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن در اﻟﮕـﻮي ﺗﻌـﺎدل ﻋﻤـﻮﻣﯽ ﻣﺤﺎﺳـﺒﻪ ﭘـﺬﯾﺮ داراي ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪﮔﯽ ﻫﺎي ﺧﺎص ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﮐﺎﻻﯾﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻫﻢ ﻋﺮﺿ ﻪي داﺧﻠﯽ آن در ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت ﮐﻢ ﮐﺸﺶ اﺳﺖ و ﻫﻢ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ از ﻃﺮﯾـﻖ واردات ﻧﯿﺴـﺖ ، ﻟـﺬا اﻧﺘﻈـﺎر ﻣﯽ رود، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ درآﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘﯽ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي در ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﺷـﻮد . از آنﺟﺎ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﺼﺮﻓﯽ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪاي اﺳﺖ، اﯾﻦ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﺳﺒﺐ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪﮔﯽ ﻫﺎﯾﯽ در ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﺑﯿﻤﺎري ﻫﻠﻨﺪي ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد (ﻣـﻮﺋﻠ ﺮ و ﻫﻤﮑـﺎران 3، 2009). ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﮐﻪ ﮐﺸﺶ درآﻣﺪي ﮐﺎﻻي ﻣﺼﺮﻓﯽ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ اﺳﺖ، اﻓـﺰاﯾﺶ در ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﺑﺮ اﺛﺮ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ درآﻣﺪ ﻧﻔﺘـﯽ ﺑـﯿﺶ ﺗـﺮ ﻧﺎﺷـﯽ از ﺗﻘﺎﺿـﺎي ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﺑﻮده و ﮐ ﻢﺗﺮ از ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﺼﺮﻓﯽ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﻣﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد (ﻣﻬﺮآرا4، 2007). ﺑـﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﻻزم اﺳﺖ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻘﺎﺿـﺎي ﻣﺼـﺮﻓﯽ ﺳـﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن از ﺗـﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻘﺎﺿـﺎي ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اي آن ﺗﻔﮑﯿﮏ ﺷﻮد. ﺑﺮاي ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳـﺎزي ﺗﻘﺎﺿـﺎي ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اي ﺳـﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﻻزم اﺳـﺖ داراﯾـﯽ ﻫـﺎي ﺳـﺮﻣ ﺎﯾﻪاي در ﺗﺤﻠﯿـﻞ ﻫـﺎ وارد ﺷـ ﻮد. در روﯾﮑـﺮد ﻏﺎﻟـﺐ ﺑـﺮاي ﻣـﺪل ﺳـﺎزي داراﯾـﯽ ﻫــﺎي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اي، اﯾﻦ داراﯾﯽﻫﺎ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي رﻓﺘﺎر ﺑـﯿﻦ دور هاي ﻣﺼـﺮف ﮐﻨﻨـﺪه و اﻧﺘﺨـﺎب ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺼﺮف و ﭘﺲ اﻧﺪاز در ﯾﮏ ﻣﺪل ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪل اﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻣـﯽ ﺷـﻮ ﻧﺪ (وﯾﺒﻠـﺖ 5، 2004). در اﯾﻦ روش ﻣﺴﯿﺮ ﭘﺲ اﻧﺪاز و ﻣﺴﯿﺮ ﻣﺼﺮف در ﻃﻮل زﻣﺎن ﺗﺎﺑﻌﯽ از ﻧﺮخﻫﺎي ﺑﻬـﺮه و ﺗـﺮﺟﯿﺢ زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﻓﺮض ﺷﺪه و در ﯾﮏ ﺗﻌﺎدل ﭘﺎﯾﺪار ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮﻧﺪ. اﻣﺎ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﯾﮏ 1- Computable General Equilibrium. 2- Micro Consistent Matrix. 3- Mueller et.al. 4- Mehrara. 5 - Wiebelt. 62 ﻓﺼﻞﻧﺎﻣﻪ ي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻧﺮژي/ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺸﺘﻢ / ﺷﻤﺎرهي 31 / زﻣﺴﺘﺎن 1390 روش ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﻣﻮرد اﺳـﺘﻔﺎده ﻗـﺮار ﻣـﯽ ﮔﯿـﺮد ﮐـﻪ در ﺑﺨـﺶ 3 ﺑـﻪ آن ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد. اﯾﻦ روش ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ، ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﻪ ورود زﻣﺎن و ﺷـﺒﯿﻪ ﺳـﺎزي ﭘﻮﯾـﺎ در ﻣـﺪل را ﺑﺮﻃﺮف ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ و اﺟﺎزه ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ داراﯾﯽ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﮏ ﻣﺪل اﯾﺴـﺘﺎ ﻧﯿـﺰ در ﻣـﺪل ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ وارد ﺷﻮﻧﺪ . ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ روﯾﮑﺮد در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﺛﺮ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ درآﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻗﯿﻤـﺖ، ﺳـﻄﺢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿـﺖ، ﺻﺎدرات و واردات ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان ﺑﺎ ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟـﻪ و ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ رﻓـﺎه و ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺰﯾﻨـ ﻪي ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫـﺎ و دوﻟـﺖ ﻣـﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳـﯽ ﻗـﺮار ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮد. در ﺑﺨﺶ دوم ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ادﺑﯿﺎت ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮد و ﺑﺮ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌـﺎت ﭘﯿﺸـﯿﻦ در اﯾﻦ ﺣﻮز ه ﻣﺮوري اﺟﻤﺎﻟﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﺳﻮم، ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﻣﺪل ﭼﻨﺪ ﺑﺨﺸﯽ ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده در اﯾـﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟـﻪ ﺑـﺮاي اﻗﺘﺼـﺎد اﯾـﺮان اراﺋـﻪ ﻣـﯽ ﺷـﻮد، ﻫ ﻢﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺤﻮ هي ﺗﻔﮑﯿﮏ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﺼﺮﻓﯽ از ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اي و ﺿﺮورت آن ﻧﯿﺰ در اﯾـﻦ ﺑﺨـﺶ ﻣﻄﺮح ﻣﯽ ﮔﺮدد. ﺑﺨﺶ ﭼﻬﺎرم ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒ ﻪي اﺛﺮات ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﺷﻮك درآﻣﺪ ﻧﻔﺘـﯽ ﺑـﺮ ﺳـﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و ﻗﯿﻤﺖ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد، ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ و ﺳـﻄﺢ رﻓـﺎه ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ اﺧﺘﺼﺎص ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻋﻼوه ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿـﺮات ﮐﺸـﺶ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﯿﻨﯽ واردات و ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت داﺧﻠﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ در اﯾﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺨﺶ ﭘﺎﯾﺎﻧﯽ ﻧﯿـﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي و اراﺋ ﻪي ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻪﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﯽ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ . -2 ﻣﺮوري ﺑﺮ ادﺑﯿﺎت و ﭘﯿﺸﯿﻨ ﻪي ﻣﻮﺿﻮع رﮐﻮد اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي در ﻫﻠﻨﺪ، ﺑﻪوﯾﮋه در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫـﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿـﺪي و ﺻـﻨﻌﺘﯽ، ﭘـﺲ از اﻓـﺰاﯾﺶ درآﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ اﯾﻦ ﮐﺸﻮر ﮐﻪ از درﯾﺎي ﺷﻤﺎل اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد، ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﭘﯿﺪاﯾﺶ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻫﺎي زﯾﺎدي ﭘﯿﺮاﻣﻮن ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت درآﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺳـﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﯿـﺪ و ﻗﯿﻤـﺖ ﻫـﺎ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ (ﭘﮓ1، 2010). در ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﯾﻦ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﯿﻤـﺎري ﻫﻠﻨﺪي ﻣﻌﺮوف اﺳﺖ، اﯾﻦﻃﻮر ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد ﮐﻪ ﺑـﻪ دﻧﺒـﺎل ﺳـﺮازﯾﺮ ﺷـﺪن درآﻣـﺪ ﻣﻨـﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺑﻪ داﺧﻞ ﮐﺸﻮر، ﻧﺮخ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﯽ ارز ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑـﺮاي ﺧـﺪﻣﺎت و ﮐﺎﻻﻫـﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ و ﺑﺎ ﻓﺸﺎر آوردن ﺑﺮ دﺳﺘﻤﺰدﻫﺎ ﺳﺒﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗـﻮان رﻗﺎﺑـﺖ ﮐﺎﻻﻫﺎي ﻣﺒﺎدﻟﻪ اي در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ واردات ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد . اﯾﻦ اﺛﺮ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ اي ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ ﯾـﮏ اﺛـﺮ 1 - Pegg. ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﺑﯿﻤﺎري ﻫﻠﻨﺪي در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان: روﯾﮑﺮد ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ... 63 ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻧﯿﺰ ﻫﻤﺮاه ﺷﻮد.
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