Vol. 77 No. 3 April 2001

.-.-.. : The Virginia News Letter

The Demise of Virginia Democrats

By William H.Wood

Today, a decade later: demise of the Virginia Democratic Following Robb's loss to George Allen The mostParty remarkableis that it happened aspect ofvirtually the in November, the Democrats have no overnight. statewide office-holders. Just a decade ago, the state's Democrats Terry, in 1993, and Beyer, in 1997, were were in the proverbial political catbird's seat. defeated in their quest for the In the spring of 1991, only one Governor's Mansion by margins—over Republican, U.S. Sen. John Warner, had a 10 percent in each case—that could not statewide office. The other four statewide have been anticipated a decade ago by office-holders were Democrats: U.S. Sen. even the most optimistic Republicans. Charles Robb, Gov. Douglas Wilder, Wilder, whose election as the nation's Lieutenant Gov. Don Beyer, and Attorney first (and, still, only) African-American General Mary Sue Terry Furthermore, Terry governor gained international acclaim, and Beyer had won their 1989 elections so looked like a perennial asset to easily that both seemed destined to become Democrats. Now he gives only luke governors in the 1990s. William H. Wood warm support to many Democratic In addition, Democrats held a 40-vote candidates. majority in the General Assembly (a 20-vote Finally, the Democrats have lost control margin in each chamber) and thus were in firm control of the 1991 redistricting session. of both the State Senate and the House of Delegates, and Republicans orches They had more than enough power to trated the redistricting of Virginia this redesign legislative districts to maximize their strength in the Assembly. spring.

WELDON COOPER CENTER FOR PUBLIC SERVICE University of Virginia The Virginia News Letter

Demographics is destiny But while these urban Democrats were Co what happened? What are the causes growing in power, the ground underneath them Ofor the Republican ascendancy and the was shifting toward their suburban neighbors. Democrats' demise? From the 1970s through the 1990s, tens of Most of all, this is not your grandfather's thousands of Virginia's urban dwellers headed for Virginia—or your father's, either. In 1960, the the suburbs. Hundreds of thousands moved into state had slightly less than four million residents. the state and simply bypassed the central cities. Since then, the state has grown by an additional Today, 60 percent of the vote cast in three million people. A large percentage of that Virginia elections comes from urbanized sub growth has occurred along the two interstate urbs, from the Northern Virginia counties of highways in the eastern part of the Fairfax, Prince William and Loudoun to Metro Commonwealth, the 1-95 and 1-64 corridors. Richmond's Chesterfield and Henrico counties, The power shifts Population change drives political change. to the South Hampton Roads' cities of Virginia Once, Democratic rural Virginia ruled state Beach and Chesapeake. to suburban politics. Then Democratic urban Virginia took In almost every statewide election these over. Today, suburban Virginia rules, and its Virginia. urbanized suburbs deliver large majorities of politics are decidedly Republican. votes to Republican candidates. The chart on the next page, based on U.S. Historic changes Census Bureau figures released this March, shows the change in population, 1990-2000, Tprom the mid-1920s to the 1960s, the Byrd for the 20 most populous Virginia cities and J- Organization—named for governor and U.S. counties. Sen. Harry F. Byrd Sr.— dominated Virginia pol Note that only two localities with growth itics. Its base was in rural Virginia, but its influ rates of over 10 percent lean Democratic in ence extended to courthouses and city halls statewide races. The others lean Republican. This virtually throughout the state. includes Fairfax County, which votes Democratic The Organization won every important in local races but has been voting most frequently election in the state from 1925, when Byrd Sr. for Republicans in statewide elections. was elected Governor with 74 percent of the vote, Virginia's population increased by 889,000 until 1966, when Portsmouth State Sen. Bill in the past 10 years. During that decade, 10 Spong defeated incumbent U.S. Sen. A. Willis localities (Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Robertson in the Democratic Senate Primary. Chesterfield, Henrico, Chesapeake, Virginia The Organization's hegemony was undone Beach, Stafford, Spotsylvania and Hanover) grew by two things: by 558,000—63 percent of the state's total First, the aforementioned post-World War growth in the 1990s. They form the core of the II growth of the Urban Corridor, from Metro new Republican constituency in statewide races. Washington to South Hampton Roads, brought Why do these non-urban dwellers in droves of voters who wanted more services frequently vote Republican? from state and local government—even if it That begs another question: Why did they meant forsaking the Organization's low-taxes, leave the central cities or chose not to locate in pay-as-you-go philosophy. Second, a series of the urban core? federal laws and court decisions—especially the There are several key reasons: Voting Rights Act of 1965 and the application Local taxes. Typically, cities have higher taxes of the courts' one-man/one-vote doctrine to the than their suburban counterparts. In the 1970s, states—changed politics in Virginia and much of Norfolk had a real estate tax rate of $1.30. the South. Virginia Beach's rates at the time were beneath Many "New Democrat" victories followed, 1.00. In the 1990s, Richmond's real estate tax and by the early 1990s urban Democats were rate was twice Hanover County's. There are firmly in control of the State Capitol machinery: undoubtedly good reasons for the disparity. Wilder of Richmond, was Governor; Tom Moss of Norfolk was Speaker of the House of Certainly Norfolk, Richmond and other center cities have a much heavier financial burden in Delegates; Alan Diamonstein of Newport News paying for social services and school systems that was Moss' chief advisor; Hunter Andrews of serve low-income populations (see the January Hampton was Majority Leader of the Senate; 2001 News Letter, "Fixing Virginia's Tax Stanley Walker of Norfolk was the President Pro Structure"). But, no matter the reason, taxes have Tern of the Senate. been significantly less in most suburban areas. Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service • April 2001

VIRGINIA AND DEMOGRAPHICS

L o c a l i t y P o p u l a t i o n Gain/Loss Since 1990 State Political Leaning Fairfax County 969,700 18.5% Republican Virginia Beach 425,300 8.2% Republican Chesterfield County 260,000 24.0% Republican Prince William County 280,800 30.6% Republican Henrico County 262,300 20.4% Republican Norfolk 234,400 -10.3% Democrat Chesapeake 199,200 31.1% Republican Richmond 197,800 -2.4% Democrat Arlington County 189,500 10.9% Democrat Newport News 180,200 5.1% Democrat Loudoun County 169,600 96.8% Republican Hampton 146,400 9.5% Democrat Alexandria 128,300 15.4% Democrat Portsmouth 100,600 -3.2% Democrat Roanoke 94,900 -1.6% Democrat Stafford County 92,400 48.5% Republican Spotsylvania County 90,400 57.5% Republican Hanover County 86,300 36.4% Republican Roanoke County 85,800 8.2% Republican Montgomery County 83,600 13.1% Republican

"Political leaning" is a subjective analysis based on elections in the 1990s and can vary for individual elec tions. For example, Republicans carried Fairfax County in the 1996 Senate election, the 1997 gubernato rial election and the 1997 attorney general election, but lost in the 2000 Senate election.

Crime. Most urban areas usually have higher Traditionally, in a two-party system, the crime rates than suburban areas. That was true in party out of power is the more aggressive in Virginia cities in the last 30 years and was exac developing innovative campaign issues. And if erbated by the violence that accompanied the that party has been out of power for over a cen crack cocaine epidemic of the late 1980s and tury as Virginia Republicans had been early '90s. (Democrats controlled the General Assembly from the mid-1880s to the mid-1990s) issue- Education. The perception has been—true or not—that suburban school systems are better development becomes No. 1 on the out-of- than inner-city systems. And polls show that the power party's agenda. Thus, in the 1990s, Republicans became perceived quality of K-12 education is one the the party of ideas in Virginia on—guess what? major factors families use to determine where Taxes. Tax relief is the centerpiece of most GOP they will live. campaigns. Democrats don't favor increased taxes—Who does?—but most Democratic can Republican initiative didates don't make tax relief No. 1 on their agenda. If a reporter asks a Republican running The notmove automatically to from center mean city tothat suburbs Democrats does for statewide office if he or she favors a tax become Republicans. Either party could have increase to pay for services, the GOP candidate taken advantage of the shift to the suburbs by reacts in horror. If the same reporter asks a emphasizing issues that appealed to the new sub Democrat, the Democrat often says, "Well, urban voters. But Virginia Republicans seized we can't rule out a tax increase, that would be the initiative. irresponsible." The Virginia News Letter

Crime. Republicans have emphasized "get- voters, and African-Americans, who remain the tough" approaches to criminal behavior. most reliable Democratic constituency despite Example: In the 1993 campaign for governor, the inroads in recent years by Allen, Gov. Jim Democrats' primary response to the crime wave Gilmore and Attorney General Mark Earley. was tougher gun laws. The Republicans was Second, many of the hot-button issues that parole reform: Lock up the criminals and throw propelled Republicans to victories throughout away the key. the South are fading, partly because Republican Education. Republicans developed a three-part governors and legislatures have been successful in political mantra: 1. Schools aren't doing the job. addressing the issues and partly because the pros 2. We need more accountability. 3. Let's impose perity of the 1990s has reduced the anti-tax fever Standards of Learning. In response, many that lifted the GOP to power. Several recent Democrats criticized the SOLs and suggested Virginia polls show that a majority of voters that more money for schools and teachers was would rather put money into services and forego the best way to go. or reduce tax cuts. Taxes, crime and education reform were a Third, internecine battles obviously dam aged the Democratic Party in the 1990s. That staple of George Allen's gubernatorial campaign in 1993—he was a huge underdog when the could also happen on the other side of the aisle. Republicans and Democrats alike have been campaign began—and have been used success stunned by how quickly the now-dominant fully by the party ever since. GOP split into warring factions at this year's Besides the population shifts, and the General Assembly. GOP dominance of the issue debates, one other But none of these factors will count for major factor helped the GOP during the 1990s: much unless Democrats develop a suburban the opposition party. From the late 1980s and strategy. In the decade ahead, the growth of sub throughout the '90s, Democrats were beset by urban Virginia may slow, but it won't stop. And internal fights, which came back to haunt them. Democrats are destined for continuing minority Most prominent of the battles was the long-run status unless they can deliver a political message ning Robb vs. Wilder feud, which damaged both that resonates in Prince William and Loudoun, men and helped defeat Mary Sue Terry in 1993. Henrico and Chesterfield, Chesapeake and Virginia Beach—the new political centers of the What lies ahead? Commonwealth. * ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Mr. Wood is Afterh oaw decade can the Dofe moneocra defeatts rebo uafternd? another, executive director of the Thomas C. Sorensen First, today's Democrats don't have as far to Institute for Political Leadership at the travel politically as the GOP did in the 1970s and University of Virginia and director of the '80s. Democrats still do well with women voters, Communications and Publications division of who are a slight majority (52-53 percent) of state the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

VOL 77 NO. 3 APRIL 2001 Tht Editor: William H. Wood Virginia News Letter ENTERED AS Graphic Design: Jayne Weber WELDON COOPER PERIODICAL The Virginia News Letter (ISSN 0042- CENTER FOR PUBLIC SERVICE 0271) is published ten times a year by the Charlottesville, Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, University of Virginia University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400206, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904-4206; (804)982-5704, TDD: (804) 982-HEAR. Copyright ©2001 by the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. The views expressed are those of the author and not the official position of the Cooper Center or the University. To get on The Virginia NEWS LETTER mailing list or to request reprints or repro duction permission, write or call the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. Periodical postage paid at Charlottesville, Virginia. Postmaster: Send address changes to the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, P.O. Box 400206, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904-4206.